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NZ321
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Future of 777X

Tue Sep 05, 2017 10:44 am

So, there are 316 orders logged in the book at present - similar to A380 total orders.

The question in my mind is where are the additional orders going to come from which Boeing needs to justify its expenditure on this programme. And more to the point, this seems to be an airliner tailored to ULH missions which are core to the needs of ME and SE Asian airlines and there are many exisiting operators of the 777 who have not yet shown an interest in the 777x. For example, KL, AF (an early 77W customer), BA (by all accounts going with the IAG order for A35K), SV, AI, TG, OZ (selected A35K), JL (selected A35K), AC (77W and 77L fleet still relatively young), IR (hasn't ordered the 777X), TK (volatile situation may be a while til we see orders for 77W replacement and fleet is relatively young), 9W, NZ, CI (young 77W fleet), Chinese carriers - also young 77W fleet and UA (still taking delivery of recently ordered 77W. Some of these operators have already ordered A359 as replacement for 772 which means its far from certain that Boeing will win an order for replacing the 77W. We know that NZ is currently evaluating its options and that QF (not an exisiting operator) likewise. But these two operators wouldn't likely order more than 30-40 units total between them. No US airlines have expressed interest in this aircraft to date.

316 orders on the face of it seems okay, but with the exception of LH (who reportedly are looking at reducing their order) all other operators to order the 77X operate ULH routes which push the 77W to the edge of its range / payload capability. And a back of the envelope calculation on likely orders isn't encouraging. So - given recent publicity about possible order cancellations or deferrals due to ME situation, I am interested to hear thoughts about the future of this programme and how many Boeing need to build to make the programme a success and where these orders will come from.
 
Newbiepilot
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Re: Future of 777X

Tue Sep 05, 2017 10:57 am

In the last 3 years, widebody orders have been slow. The 777x isn't losing many sales campaigns to the A350. Airlines just haven't been ordering large widebodies with deliveries far into the future. As you say, many of the 77W fleets are young and Boeing has been pushing hard to sell discount 77Ws to keep the production line running until the 777x transition. Once the 77W stops taking orders, we might see a shift in strategy. Eventually orders will come back, but there will be a time when the all the widebody production lines see falling backlogs.

If you just look at the 777x backlog, it has a small customer base. That means there is a lot of opportunity, but also some risk with production rates. It isn't the only production line running into that problem. The 787 has risks going up in rate like planned. A350s are getting deferred. A380 production rate dropped. 77Ws sold with big discounts. The A330neo order book is smaller than the 777x with the A338 struggling for market acceptance. I think it is important to look at the bigger picture with widebodies.
Last edited by Newbiepilot on Tue Sep 05, 2017 11:01 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
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MrHMSH
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Re: Future of 777X

Tue Sep 05, 2017 11:00 am

I think it will end up with 500-600 orders in the end, it's main problem is that there are so many competitors, at least in terms of range. I've noticed there has been the start of a trend where some 77W routes are being swapped to the A350-900, and I can imagine there are several examples for the even smaller 787-9 (even if none come to my mind).

Overall I'm sure it will be absolutely fine, the development seems to have gone well, and Boeing will be very wary of setbacks, so they will be thorough.
 
Newbiepilot
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Re: Future of 777X

Tue Sep 05, 2017 11:04 am

MrHMSH wrote:
I think it will end up with 500-600 orders in the end, it's main problem is that there are so many competitors, at least in terms of range. I've noticed there has been the start of a trend where some 77W routes are being swapped to the A350-900, and I can imagine there are several examples for the even smaller 787-9 (even if none come to my mind).

Overall I'm sure it will be absolutely fine, the development seems to have gone well, and Boeing will be very wary of setbacks, so they will be thorough.


I find it really hard to have an estimate of how many planes will be sold in the end. It could have a 8 year production run or it could have a 15 year production run. At this point it is hard to tell how long the 777x will be in production. One thing that I am fairly certain about is that there won't be another new large widebody launched for the next decade other than a potential modest A350 stretch. I could see a slow 15-20 year production run for the plane since I don't think Airbus or Boeing will launch anything new in the 300+ seat capacity. I agree with you when you say there is more competition. Smaller widebodies are flying routes that the 77W was used in. Maintaining a 7 plane a month production rate for almost 10 years like the 777 did is very unlikely.
 
Momo1435
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Re: Future of 777X

Tue Sep 05, 2017 11:19 am

We are blinded when it comes to the Chinese carriers. I have no doubt we will see them ordering the 777X, it's just that their orders are usually only announced very late, 2 or even 1 year before the 1st deliveries. So maybe there are already advanced talks with Boeing going on behind closed doors.

And airlines in general are ordering their planes later the last couple of years. There are far less orders with delivery dates after 5 years from now. The SIA order is an indication of this, before that order was announced the general opinion was already that the 777X orders were coming in too slow for comfort. And nobody really expected SIA to place that order with so many A350s on order. There's no reason to believe that there won't be more of this kind of orders the next couple of years. If Boeing will be able to firm up the IR order it will already be a start.
 
scotron11
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Re: Future of 777X

Tue Sep 05, 2017 11:41 am

LH reducing their 779 orders was a mention, not definite. It could happen or it could not. However, we should know more on their intention sometime this month
 
texl1649
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Re: Future of 777X

Tue Sep 05, 2017 11:48 am

Some mixed orders will also happen once it is the only vla available, and the 777-10x is also replacing 744 (and 748/a380) for many airlines. The 779 and 77-10 will be a formidable "family of two" for many carriers at the top end of the fleets.
 
Armodeen
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Re: Future of 777X

Tue Sep 05, 2017 11:49 am

As mentioned up thread the existing 77W fleets are still young. This is going to be a slow burner, but will sell well in the end. The situation is similar to that of the A330neo tbh.
 
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TheLion
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Re: Future of 777X

Tue Sep 05, 2017 12:03 pm

I think Boeing need to be realistic about their early stage production rates. It's likely many more airlines will order the 777X because it's the largest two holer aircraft on the market and so provides the greatest capacity and range possible for major carriers. It's a clear step up from the A35W/A35J.

If the A380 does eventually go the way of the Dodo, then the case for the 777X becomes much greater. The actual success of the 777X will depend a lot on factors outside Boeing's control in my view.
 
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keesje
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Re: Future of 777X

Tue Sep 05, 2017 12:04 pm

A350s perform as promised, the A350-1000 looks to have unbeatable economics at this stage.

The biggest A350 customers are big 777 users.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Airbus_A350_XWB_orders_and_deliveries#Orders_and_deliveries_by_customer_.28sortable.29

Some are still in denial because the 777 used to be so successful.

Boeing is denying because it hurts the stock price, Airbus because they don't want wake people up.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
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TheLion
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Re: Future of 777X

Tue Sep 05, 2017 12:09 pm

keesje wrote:
A350s perform as promised, the A350-1000 looks to have unbeatable economics at this stage.

The biggest A350 customers are big 777 users.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Airbus_A350_XWB_orders_and_deliveries#Orders_and_deliveries_by_customer_.28sortable.29

Some are still in denial because the 777 used to be so successful.

Boeing is denying because it hurts the stock price, Airbus because they don't want wake people up.


I honestly think both have a role to play as they're different sizes, especially if the A380 ceases production.
 
BestWestern
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Re: Future of 777X

Tue Sep 05, 2017 12:09 pm

A big question hangs over Etihads 77X fleet orders. From a ME3 perspective, this is the weakest order.
Greetings from Hong Kong.... a subsidiary of China Inc.
 
Newbiepilot
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Re: Future of 777X

Tue Sep 05, 2017 12:11 pm

keesje wrote:
A350s perform as promised, the A350-1000 looks to have unbeatable economics at this stage.

The biggest A350 customers are big 777 users.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Airbus_A350_XWB_orders_and_deliveries#Orders_and_deliveries_by_customer_.28sortable.29

Some are still in denial because the 777 used to be so successful.

Boeing is denying because it hurts the stock price, Airbus because they don't want wake people up.


The 777 has outsold the A350 over the past 1 year, 3 years, 5 years and 10 year period, so while A350 does have strengths, it doesn't mean the 777 won't continue to sell. There's a market for both planes.
 
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TheLion
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Re: Future of 777X

Tue Sep 05, 2017 12:16 pm

Newbiepilot wrote:
keesje wrote:
A350s perform as promised, the A350-1000 looks to have unbeatable economics at this stage.

The biggest A350 customers are big 777 users.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Airbus_A350_XWB_orders_and_deliveries#Orders_and_deliveries_by_customer_.28sortable.29

Some are still in denial because the 777 used to be so successful.

Boeing is denying because it hurts the stock price, Airbus because they don't want wake people up.


The 777 has outsold the A350 over the past 1 year, 3 years, 5 years and 10 year period, so while A350 does have strengths, it doesn't mean the 777 won't continue to sell. There's a market for both planes.


Yes I agree. There is certainly a market for both. The question is how large a slice of the pie is there for each, or perhaps there will be two pies...
 
dtw2hyd
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Re: Future of 777X

Tue Sep 05, 2017 12:19 pm

Only time will tell. This has been a well-debated topic and no one going to change their opinion at this point in time.
Last edited by dtw2hyd on Tue Sep 05, 2017 12:26 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
Waterbomber
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Re: Future of 777X

Tue Sep 05, 2017 12:21 pm

keesje wrote:
A350s perform as promised, the A350-1000 looks to have unbeatable economics at this stage.

The biggest A350 customers are big 777 users.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Airbus_A350_XWB_orders_and_deliveries#Orders_and_deliveries_by_customer_.28sortable.29

Some are still in denial because the 777 used to be so successful.

Boeing is denying because it hurts the stock price, Airbus because they don't want wake people up.


I think that your last line is bang on, especially the Airbus part.
Airbus seems happy for Boeing to keep developping the B777X instead of an alternative (for instance based on the B787), as they can easily beat it on any sales campaign with their A350XWB.

I think that Boeing is in denial because they have made the wrong decision and are forgetting that the B77W's success came from the fact that it had no viable competitor in the segment.
 
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keesje
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Re: Future of 777X

Tue Sep 05, 2017 12:35 pm

Newbiepilot wrote:
keesje wrote:
A350s perform as promised, the A350-1000 looks to have unbeatable economics at this stage.

The biggest A350 customers are big 777 users.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Airbus_A350_XWB_orders_and_deliveries#Orders_and_deliveries_by_customer_.28sortable.29

Some are still in denial because the 777 used to be so successful.

Boeing is denying because it hurts the stock price, Airbus because they don't want wake people up.


The 777 has outsold the A350 over the past 1 year, 3 years, 5 years and 10 year period, so while A350 does have strengths, it doesn't mean the 777 won't continue to sell. There's a market for both planes.


Move on, nothing to see here !


Somehow the A350 has nearly 700 in the backlog the 777 has 400.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
Whalejet
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Re: Future of 777X

Tue Sep 05, 2017 12:35 pm

What about a potential 777-10X 80 meter stretch? Wouldn't be too difficult and would probably kill off the a380. Thoughts? I think at the very least it could be used as an A380 replacement.
 
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par13del
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Re: Future of 777X

Tue Sep 05, 2017 1:00 pm

Waterbomber wrote:
I think that Boeing is in denial because they have made the wrong decision and are forgetting that the B77W's success came from the fact that it had no viable competitor in the segment.

I thought the A340 / A346 was a direct competitor to the 777W, will have to go and re-read my timelines and articles from both OEM's back in the day.
 
Momo1435
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Re: Future of 777X

Tue Sep 05, 2017 1:01 pm

keesje wrote:
A350s perform as promised, the A350-1000 looks to have unbeatable economics at this stage.

The biggest A350 customers are big 777 users.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Airbus_A350_XWB_orders_and_deliveries#Orders_and_deliveries_by_customer_.28sortable.29

Some are still in denial because the 777 used to be so successful.

Boeing is denying because it hurts the stock price, Airbus because they don't want wake people up.

Singapore Airlines still went ahead and ordered the 777X, even after they had real life data on the A359 from the 1st deliveries. Granted, it's not the A35K data, but still. Proclaiming the 777X dead on arrival because of the A350 performance is to simplistic at this stage. Especially since we haven't even seen the actual 777X performance yet.
 
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Polot
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Re: Future of 777X

Tue Sep 05, 2017 1:03 pm

par13del wrote:
Waterbomber wrote:
I think that Boeing is in denial because they have made the wrong decision and are forgetting that the B77W's success came from the fact that it had no viable competitor in the segment.

I thought the A340 / A346 was a direct competitor to the 777W, will have to go and re-read my timelines and articles from both OEM's back in the day.

Well he said viable competitor. The A345/A346 was a direct competitor to the 77L/77W. Viable on the other hand, well the market response made that clear...
 
WIederling
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Re: Future of 777X

Tue Sep 05, 2017 1:16 pm

par13del wrote:
Waterbomber wrote:
I think that Boeing is in denial because they have made the wrong decision and are forgetting that the B77W's success came from the fact that it had no viable competitor in the segment.

I thought the A340 / A346 was a direct competitor to the 777W, will have to go and re-read my timelines and articles from both OEM's back in the day.


A340-2/300 is earlier than 777-200
A340-5/600 is earlier than 777-300ER aka 77W
Murphy is an optimist
 
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Polot
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Re: Future of 777X

Tue Sep 05, 2017 1:25 pm

WIederling wrote:
A340-2/300 is earlier than 777-200
A340-5/600 is earlier than 777-300ER aka 77W

We are talking ~2 year differences here though. They are both the same generation and are both direct competitors.
 
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VirginFlyer
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Re: Future of 777X

Tue Sep 05, 2017 1:28 pm

keesje wrote:
Newbiepilot wrote:
keesje wrote:
A350s perform as promised, the A350-1000 looks to have unbeatable economics at this stage.

The biggest A350 customers are big 777 users.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Airbus_A350_XWB_orders_and_deliveries#Orders_and_deliveries_by_customer_.28sortable.29

Some are still in denial because the 777 used to be so successful.

Boeing is denying because it hurts the stock price, Airbus because they don't want wake people up.


The 777 has outsold the A350 over the past 1 year, 3 years, 5 years and 10 year period, so while A350 does have strengths, it doesn't mean the 777 won't continue to sell. There's a market for both planes.


Move on, nothing to see here !


Somehow the A350 has nearly 700 in the backlog the 777 has 400.

That "somehow" is very simple - 777s have been being delivered over the time period, A350s have been going through a production ramp up only in the last few years, and had a couple of years of net negative orders. Here are some comparisons:

A350 total net orders: 856
777 net orders January 2007-July 2017: 1039

A350 net orders January 2012-July 2017: 293
777 net orders January 2012-July 2017: 591

A350 net orders January 2014-July 2017: 36
777 net orders January 2014-July 2017: 395

A350 net orders January 2016-July 2017: 71
777 net orders January 2016-July 2017: 60

So on three of the four propositions, it seems that the 777 has in fact outsold the A350. But really this whole A vs B urination contest is quite tiresome and I am loathe to contribute towards it. They're clearly both fine aircraft. The 777 has the benefit of nearly 2 decades service on the A350, so of course it is going to be more mature and have sold in lager numbers so far. Just as the A350 has the benefit of being 2 decades younger than the 777, so of course it is going to be more technologically advanced and more efficient like for like. When both programmes are wound up however long into the future that is, I doubt either manufacturer will be looking at their one regretting its performance on the market.

V/F
"It is not for him to pride himself who loveth his own country, but rather for him who loveth the whole world. The earth is but one country, and mankind its citizens." - Bahá'u'lláh
 
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ssteve
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Re: Future of 777X

Tue Sep 05, 2017 1:32 pm

The 777X will be a viable competitor itself, which certainly makes it look like the cost effective solution rather than creating a totally new airplane for a market that already has a viable competitor. I doubt Boeing itself expects there is any path to owning the market the way it once did.

In a different light, Airbus looks genius with the A321... what will be the A321 in this segment? Could go either way, and will be interesting.
 
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par13del
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Re: Future of 777X

Tue Sep 05, 2017 1:34 pm

Polot wrote:
I thought the A340 / A346 was a direct competitor to the 777W, will have to go and re-read my timelines and articles from both OEM's back in the day.

Well he said viable competitor. The A345/A346 was a direct competitor to the 77L/77W. Viable on the other hand, well the market response made that clear...[/quote]
Viable is subjective, do you recall any A346 operators saying the a/c was not viable, even Airbus rumour's of paying carriers to offset the fuel burn numbers did not pan out, so....
Market response is also subjective, is there anyone who is claiming that the A380 is a failure?

We can discuss the 777X and its challenges, in some circles, the a/c is obsolete before it even has its first test flight, is designed for long haul, yet every other frame can trade range for payload, but that is also a subjective thought....so....
 
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VirginFlyer
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Re: Future of 777X

Tue Sep 05, 2017 1:49 pm

Waterbomber wrote:
keesje wrote:
A350s perform as promised, the A350-1000 looks to have unbeatable economics at this stage.

The biggest A350 customers are big 777 users.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Airbus_A350_XWB_orders_and_deliveries#Orders_and_deliveries_by_customer_.28sortable.29

Some are still in denial because the 777 used to be so successful.

Boeing is denying because it hurts the stock price, Airbus because they don't want wake people up.


I think that your llast line is bang on, especiaally the Airbus part.
Airbus seems happy for Boeing to keep developping the B777X instead of an alternative (for instance based on the B787), as they can easily beat it on any sales campaign with their A350XWB.

Can easily beat it on any sales campaign? Given that in the period from January 2013 to present, the 777X order book stands at 326, whereas the A350 order book for that period stands at 266, I'm not sure you can say that the A350 is easily beating the 777X on any campaign. As I said above, this discussion will be much more accurate (although also much more academic) once both frames have finished their production runs and we can look back on the fullness of their lives. For now, I would be very reluctant to wager on one (either one) dominating the other.

V/F
"It is not for him to pride himself who loveth his own country, but rather for him who loveth the whole world. The earth is but one country, and mankind its citizens." - Bahá'u'lláh
 
StTim
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Re: Future of 777X

Tue Sep 05, 2017 2:01 pm

There are many variables on this in my opinion. Who needs the size and ULH legs required to make the 777X economics work. For may carriers (read most) the likely best performer will be a 350 or a 787 and not the 777X.
Will the Gulf Carriers be able to take all those frames ordered?
Too many imponderables. Glad I do not have to make airframe buying decisions. Hindsight is a wonderful talent to have!
 
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Polot
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Re: Future of 777X

Tue Sep 05, 2017 2:07 pm

par13del wrote:
Viable is subjective, do you recall any A346 operators saying the a/c was not viable, even Airbus rumour's of paying carriers to offset the fuel burn numbers did not pan out, so....
Market response is also subjective, is there anyone who is claiming that the A380 is a failure?

There are in fact a ton of people who claim the A380 is a commercial failure. The A345/6 sold 131 planes total and is out of production. The 77L/W has sold 882 planes and counting. It is an objective fact, not subjective, that the market overwhelming preferred the 777 and did not view the A340 a competitive enough aircraft. That doesn't mean airlines can't make money off of the A340.
 
intothinair
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Re: Future of 777X

Tue Sep 05, 2017 2:22 pm

On face value i agree that the A350-1000 will kill at least the 777-8 and pose a serious threat to 777-9.

That said, the savior for the 777X might be the ever increasing slot constraints at major aviation hubs which will prevent increased frequency of smaller planes vs less frequency using larger planes. Think:
LHR
SYD
HKG
PEK
PVG
LGW
HND
AMS
MUC
BKK
BOM
CGK
DPS (in a few years)
HKT (in a few years)

And i am just naming a few here.

Just my thoughts.
 
StTim
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Re: Future of 777X

Tue Sep 05, 2017 2:31 pm

But isn't that Leahy's argument for the 380?

I am not sure it is valid for either.
 
Newbiepilot
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Re: Future of 777X

Tue Sep 05, 2017 2:49 pm

Waterbomber wrote:
keesje wrote:
A350s perform as promised, the A350-1000 looks to have unbeatable economics at this stage.

The biggest A350 customers are big 777 users.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Airbus_A350_XWB_orders_and_deliveries#Orders_and_deliveries_by_customer_.28sortable.29

Some are still in denial because the 777 used to be so successful.

Boeing is denying because it hurts the stock price, Airbus because they don't want wake people up.


I think that your llast line is bang on, especiaally the Airbus part.
Airbus seems happy for Boeing to keep developping the B777X instead of an alternative (for instance based on the B787), as they can easily beat it on any sales campaign with their A350XWB.


Reality isn't really backing up the claim that the A350 can easily beat the 777x on any sales campaign. The 777-9 has more orders than the A350-1000. I've heard some say that is because of Emirates' gigantic order. So if we pretend the biggest customers for both the A35K and 777-9 cancelled their orders (Emirates cancelled its order for 115 777-9s and similarly Qatar cancelled its order for 37 A350-1000s) the 777-9 and A350-1000 are almost dead even at 158 and 175 orders respectively. Clearly, there's a market for both the 777x and A350.

The 777x is taking much of the 787 technology, especially regarding engines and wing and putting it on the larger 777 platform. I'm not trying to say the 777x is better. I don't want an A vs B fight of who is best since that gets no where. What I am saying is that Keesje saying the A350 has unbeatable economics and Waterbomber saying the A350 can beat the 777x on any sales campaign are simply not backed up by orders and order history. Orders are one of the best indications for the future of an airplane, especially when one isn't flying yet.
 
dtw2hyd
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Re: Future of 777X

Tue Sep 05, 2017 3:01 pm

Newbiepilot wrote:
The 777x is taking much of the 787 technology, especially regarding engines and wing and putting it on the larger 777 platform. I'm not trying to say the 777x is better..


$12B spending to achieve incremental performance improvement over B77W???

Even with WTO blessings, Washington state incentives are prorated. All this spending for one customer who is not able to fill current B77Ws. I don't think you need a crystal ball.

It is not just A350, there are several others eating into the very large wide-body market.
 
intothinair
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Re: Future of 777X

Tue Sep 05, 2017 3:07 pm

StTim wrote:
But isn't that Leahy's argument for the 380?

I am not sure it is valid for either.


When the A380 first arrived you could count on 1 hand the amount of slot severly slot constraint airports in the world, with no suitable alternative airport in the same area. The A380 was premature in that selling proposition. The 777X is not.

Air travel will continue to grow at more than 10% a year in key emerging economies. Alone in the next 5 years the following airports in SE Asia (ASEAN) will reach absolute max slot capacity, and i am only talking about one area of Asia Pacific here:
HAN
SGN
DPS
HKT
DMK
MNL
SIN (temporarily till new runway is operational)
SUB

This is not including airports in the region that are already bursting such as CGK or BKK.

Further to that, the fuel burn per seat of a 777-9X will be dar superior to that of an A380
 
texl1649
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Re: Future of 777X

Tue Sep 05, 2017 3:19 pm

Customers seem content to see what both Airbus and Boeing are able to actually deliver, it seems. Can't blame them really, after the gestation/drama/slow developments for the A350/787/NEO. Max I think is basically on time but it's too early to see how that production ramp up will happen, but quite a bit of drama with the 7max configuration and 10max as well.
 
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frigatebird
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Re: Future of 777X

Tue Sep 05, 2017 3:26 pm

NZ321 wrote:
there are many exisiting operators of the 777 who have not yet shown an interest in the 777x. For example, KL, AF (an early 77W customer), BA (by all accounts going with the IAG order for A35K), SV, AI, TG, OZ (selected A35K), JL (selected A35K), AC (77W and 77L fleet still relatively young), IR (hasn't ordered the 777X), TK (volatile situation may be a while til we see orders for 77W replacement and fleet is relatively young), 9W, NZ, CI (young 77W fleet), Chinese carriers - also young 77W fleet and UA (still taking delivery of recently ordered 77W.

You give the answer to your own question: the 77W fleets are still very young.
Added to that the fuel prices aren't as high as at the peak of the 787/A350 order boom, and don't forget EIS of the 777-9 is still years away. It's the exception, not the rule that airlines order replacements for aircraft they are still taking delivery of. So, AF, KL, SV, AI, TG, AC, TK, 9W, NZ, CI, UA and Chinese carriers may very well still order the 777-9. And surely, they may very well order the A35K. I'm sure some of them will order both, like AF/KL, TG and CI. OZ doesn't operate the 77W, so little wonder they didn't order the 777X. Only JL has clearly voted against the 777X and ordered the A35K. BA seems to go the A35K way, but hasn't ruled the 777-9 out yet. IR wants the 777-9, whether they can get their hands on them is another matter.
keesje wrote:
A350s perform as promised, the A350-1000 looks to have unbeatable economics at this stage.

The biggest A350 customers are big 777 users.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Airbus_A350_XWB_orders_and_deliveries#Orders_and_deliveries_by_customer_.28sortable.29

Some are still in denial because the 777 used to be so successful.

Boeing is denying because it hurts the stock price, Airbus because they don't want wake people up.

Boeing was in denial when they claimed the 737-800 could beat the A320neo economics. They would have been if they had claimed the 77W was on par with the A35K's economics. But Boeing wasn't in denial, they realised the threat of the A35K and answered with the 777-9. Of course, it's impossible to beat a new design with a refreshed aircraft the same size, so Boeing was forced to make it bigger. Will the A35K grab a part of the 77W replacement market as a result? Yes of course. I think the A35K will outsell the 777-9. But it is my opinion it won't be by more than a 60/40% market share.

Waterbomber wrote:
Airbus seems happy for Boeing to keep developping the B777X instead of an alternative (for instance based on the B787), as they can easily beat it on any sales campaign with their A350XWB.

Yes indeed, NH and SQ chose the A350-1000 over the 777-9. Or didn't they? Talk about denial here, sheesh :banghead:
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WIederling
Posts: 3801
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Re: Future of 777X

Tue Sep 05, 2017 3:40 pm

intothinair wrote:
Further to that, the fuel burn per seat of a 777-9X will be dar superior to that of an A380


With comparable density seating it will probably be slightly better. not "far superior" at all.
Murphy is an optimist
 
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OA940
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Re: Future of 777X

Tue Sep 05, 2017 3:55 pm

The 35K is basically a 772 series replacement just with more capacity. On routes that the 772 used to fly we will be seeing the 35K (if demand doesn't drop). There is a constant increase in demand. And once those 77W's get old, airlines won't replace them with lower capacity 35K's. That's where the 779 comes to play. The 778 will be used for ULH. Assuming it has about the range of the 77L, it could make SYD-NYC non-stop with a 280-300 pax configuration (if QF's estimates are correct)
A350/CSeries = bae
 
Eyad89
Posts: 176
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Re: Future of 777X

Tue Sep 05, 2017 3:59 pm

VirginFlyer wrote:
keesje wrote:
Newbiepilot wrote:

The 777 has outsold the A350 over the past 1 year, 3 years, 5 years and 10 year period, so while A350 does have strengths, it doesn't mean the 777 won't continue to sell. There's a market for both planes.


Move on, nothing to see here !


Somehow the A350 has nearly 700 in the backlog the 777 has 400.

That "somehow" is very simple - 777s have been being delivered over the time period, A350s have been going through a production ramp up only in the last few years, and had a couple of years of net negative orders. Here are some comparisons:

A350 total net orders: 856
777 net orders January 2007-July 2017: 1039

A350 net orders January 2012-July 2017: 293
777 net orders January 2012-July 2017: 591

A350 net orders January 2014-July 2017: 36
777 net orders January 2014-July 2017: 395

A350 net orders January 2016-July 2017: 71
777 net orders January 2016-July 2017: 60

So on three of the four propositions, it seems that the 777 has in fact outsold the A350. But really this whole A vs B urination contest is quite tiresome and I am loathe to contribute towards it. They're clearly both fine aircraft. The 777 has the benefit of nearly 2 decades service on the A350, so of course it is going to be more mature and have sold in lager numbers so far. Just as the A350 has the benefit of being 2 decades younger than the 777, so of course it is going to be more technologically advanced and more efficient like for like. When both programmes are wound up however long into the future that is, I doubt either manufacturer will be looking at their one regretting its performance on the market.

V/F


I think it is unfair to compare the sales of the airplanes that are at completely different points of their lifetime.

I mean, A350 had its EIS in 2015, and now it has 848 orders nearing the end of its third year of service. 777 had its EIS in 1995, and by 1997 it had 335 orders. THOSE numbers should be compared. 848 vs 335 orders by the end of the third year of service for each plane.

On the other hand, whet you did was compare the sales of a paper plane for most of the years vs a plane that had been flying for a very long time and it probably was able to sell for cheaper as it had recovered a lot of its investments, and it can also be delivered much faster. That is very unfair in my eye.

Using the same method that you did for 787 vs A330:

787 sales since 2004: 1278
A330 sales since 2004: 1137

This way tells that A330 is selling in numbers that are similar to 787. But again, it is unfair. Lets compare the sales of 787 now 6 years after EIS to A330 at the same point of its lifetime. This gives us 1278 orders for 787 in 2017 vs 421 orders for A330 in 2000.
 
PlanesNTrains
Posts: 7190
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Re: Future of 777X

Tue Sep 05, 2017 4:12 pm

keesje wrote:
A350s perform as promised, the A350-1000 looks to have unbeatable economics at this stage.

The biggest A350 customers are big 777 users.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Airbus_A350_XWB_orders_and_deliveries#Orders_and_deliveries_by_customer_.28sortable.29

Some are still in denial because the 777 used to be so successful.

Boeing is denying because it hurts the stock price, Airbus because they don't want wake people up.


Is this just the same wording you use in every post? Some are still in denial? Boeing is denying? Airbus is the puppet-master? The [fill in Airbus airframe here] has unbeatable economics?

StTim wrote:
But isn't that Leahy's argument for the 380?

I am not sure it is valid for either.


There is often a bit of have-your-cake-and-eat-it-too in these threads.
-Dave
 
PlanesNTrains
Posts: 7190
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Re: Future of 777X

Tue Sep 05, 2017 4:14 pm

Eyad89 wrote:
VirginFlyer wrote:
keesje wrote:

Move on, nothing to see here !


Somehow the A350 has nearly 700 in the backlog the 777 has 400.

That "somehow" is very simple - 777s have been being delivered over the time period, A350s have been going through a production ramp up only in the last few years, and had a couple of years of net negative orders. Here are some comparisons:

A350 total net orders: 856
777 net orders January 2007-July 2017: 1039

A350 net orders January 2012-July 2017: 293
777 net orders January 2012-July 2017: 591

A350 net orders January 2014-July 2017: 36
777 net orders January 2014-July 2017: 395

A350 net orders January 2016-July 2017: 71
777 net orders January 2016-July 2017: 60

So on three of the four propositions, it seems that the 777 has in fact outsold the A350. But really this whole A vs B urination contest is quite tiresome and I am loathe to contribute towards it. They're clearly both fine aircraft. The 777 has the benefit of nearly 2 decades service on the A350, so of course it is going to be more mature and have sold in lager numbers so far. Just as the A350 has the benefit of being 2 decades younger than the 777, so of course it is going to be more technologically advanced and more efficient like for like. When both programmes are wound up however long into the future that is, I doubt either manufacturer will be looking at their one regretting its performance on the market.

V/F


I think it is unfair to compare the sales of the airplanes that are at completely different points of their lifetime.

I mean, A350 had its EIS in 2015, and now it has 848 orders nearing the end of its third year of service. 777 had its EIS in 1995, and by 1997 it had 335 orders. THOSE numbers should be compared. 848 vs 335 orders by the end of the third year of service for each plane.

On the other hand, whet you did was compare the sales of a paper plane for most of the years vs a plane that had been flying for a very long time and it probably was able to sell for cheaper as it had recovered a lot of its investments, and it can also be delivered much faster. That is very unfair in my eye.

Using the same method that you did for 787 vs A330:

787 sales since 2004: 1278
A330 sales since 2004: 1137

This way tells that A330 is selling in numbers that are similar to 787. But again, it is unfair. Lets compare the sales of 787 now 6 years after EIS to A330 at the same point of its lifetime. This gives us 1278 orders for 787 in 2017 vs 421 orders for A330 in 2000.


The market in the 90's was very different than the market today, so it's hard to find a direct correlation in sales numbers. Ditto the present, and the future....
-Dave
 
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Polot
Posts: 7004
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Re: Future of 777X

Tue Sep 05, 2017 4:15 pm

Eyad89 wrote:
I think it is unfair to compare the sales of the airplanes that are at completely different points of their lifetime.

I mean, A350 had its EIS in 2015, and now it has 848 orders nearing the end of its third year of service. 777 had its EIS in 1995, and by 1997 it had 335 orders. THOSE numbers should be compared. 848 vs 335 orders by the end of the third year of service for each plane.

You are stilling comparing sales of airplanes at completely different points in their lifetime. The A350XWB has been on sale for 10 years now. In 1997 the 777 had only been on sale for 7 years. That is also then ignoring how 1990-1997 and 2007-2017 are completely different eras with completely different market activity, and other issues like a A350-1000 has been available for sale since the beginning of the program while the 77W was not (I believe the -300A was first available for sale in 94 or 95).
Last edited by Polot on Tue Sep 05, 2017 4:18 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
mjoelnir
Posts: 5678
Joined: Sun Feb 03, 2013 11:06 pm

Re: Future of 777X

Tue Sep 05, 2017 4:18 pm

326 orders for a new type of an airplane family is very nice and by itself very promising. The problem starts when you look where the orders come from. 235 of the 326 orders are from the ME3. If you believe that those three airlines will survive the next ten years or at least EK will survive, than there is no problem with the 777-8/9 order book. If you believe that the ME3 will collapse or need to seriously retrench in the next ten years, the 777-8/9 could be in dangerous territory. I personally believe that at least EK will live and take those ordered frames.
The second difficulty is the time frame of the EK and QR orders. Those orders are for the replacement of the 777-300ER and 777-200LR frames over 10 to 12 years, so not a lot of frames each year. I believe we will see a production rate of somewhere around 4 to 5 frames a month, rather than the expected 8.3 frames a month. IMO it will become a mildly successful program.
 
frmrCapCadet
Posts: 1547
Joined: Thu May 29, 2008 8:24 pm

Re: Future of 777X

Tue Sep 05, 2017 4:49 pm

The trend continues: Smaller planes get bigger and have huge sales; medium sized planes get a little bigger and have good sales; largest planes get fewer.

In that scheme the 777 8 and 9, and particularly the later, fill certain good niches. But are not all that much bigger than the largest 787s/350s. A good place to be for what may be the largest planes available.

Zvezda and Matt have explained in detail why the 380 was just too big. I won't rehash.
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WIederling
Posts: 3801
Joined: Sun Sep 13, 2015 2:15 pm

Re: Future of 777X

Tue Sep 05, 2017 4:58 pm

OA940 wrote:
The 35K is basically a 772 series replacement just with more capacity.


Payload range covers the 77W capabilities ( while using 20..25% less fuel ) , doesn't it?

A359 is more or less on the 772*. though A332/A333 have happily foraged there too.
Murphy is an optimist
 
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ElroyJetson
Posts: 229
Joined: Fri May 26, 2017 5:04 am

Re: Future of 777X

Tue Sep 05, 2017 5:21 pm

keesje wrote:
A350s perform as promised, the A350-1000 looks to have unbeatable economics at this stage.

The biggest A350 customers are big 777 users.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Airbus_A350_XWB_orders_and_deliveries#Orders_and_deliveries_by_customer_.28sortable.29

Some are still in denial because the 777 used to be so successful.

Boeing is denying because it hurts the stock price, Airbus because they don't want wake people up.




Well....at least you're consistent. :D The 777x program had the largest dollar launch of any aircraft in history. The 77W's will take years to wind down. The 777X will get many of those replacements. However, a program launch with 316 orders on the books looks pretty damn solid to me.
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WIederling
Posts: 3801
Joined: Sun Sep 13, 2015 2:15 pm

Re: Future of 777X

Tue Sep 05, 2017 5:46 pm

ElroyJetson wrote:
However, a program launch with 316 orders on the books looks pretty damn solid to me.


Depending on rebates and conditions probably not.

Remember the vast numbers in the 787 orderbook ( achieved on wide spectrum overpromise and price dumping ).
My guess would be that the 777X could quite well be a Potemkin facade.
( i.e. pricing you could not walk away from and provisions for dropping orders without penalty.)
Murphy is an optimist
 
User avatar
Stitch
Posts: 24424
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 4:26 am

Re: Future of 777X

Tue Sep 05, 2017 6:00 pm

dtw2hyd wrote:
Newbiepilot wrote:
The 777x is taking much of the 787 technology, especially regarding engines and wing and putting it on the larger 777 platform. I'm not trying to say the 777x is better..

$12B spending to achieve incremental performance improvement over B77W???


Try more like $5 billion based on analysis by people who know the industry (not bloggers posing as such).


WIederling wrote:
ElroyJetson wrote:
However, a program launch with 316 orders on the books looks pretty damn solid to me.

Depending on rebates and conditions probably not.


It's industry practice to offer better deals to early customers. Airbus matched the "cheap" 787 prices on their early RFPs in order to win orders, so the first couple of years of deliveries won't be bringing in pallets of profit.
 
User avatar
flyingclrs727
Posts: 1200
Joined: Thu Apr 19, 2007 7:44 am

Re: Future of 777X

Tue Sep 05, 2017 6:10 pm

NZ321 wrote:
So, there are 316 orders logged in the book at present - similar to A380 total orders.


But, this is before any 777X are built, while the A380 numbers include all orders ever including those ordered after the first A380's were delivered. The 777X program also is a derivative of the 777, so it only has to pay back the incremental investment to develop the upgraded version not the old whole 777 program since inception.
 
iamlucky13
Posts: 743
Joined: Wed Aug 08, 2007 12:35 pm

Re: Future of 777X

Tue Sep 05, 2017 6:47 pm

Newbiepilot wrote:
I find it really hard to have an estimate of how many planes will be sold in the end.


Just snippetting this part of your post and the post you responded to for the sake of following a tangent.

Individually, we don't have to make our own estimates, at least for the market as a whole. Both Boeing and Airbus (and Bombardier and Embraer) publish their own 20 year market forecasts. I tend to be suspicious these forecasts are excessively optimistic, but the one time I dug back for a 20 year old forecast, I found the current situation was actually in the same rough ballpark as was forecast.

Boeing's forecast for "medium and large widebodies" is 3160 deliveries.

Airbus's forecast for "intermediate and very large twin aisles" is 3876 deliveries.

Boeing defines the category as including the 787-10, A350-1000 and larger aircraft. I'm not certain of Airbus's definition, but it should be similar.

Anyways, if you break those down into monthly averages over that 20 year period, you get 13-16 aircraft per month, and that's the combined figure between both manufacturers. That actually suggests a relatively constrained market, since Boeing alone was recently making over 8 x 777's per month.
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