Hurricane Irma's Impact on Aviation

jumbojet · Tue Sep 05, 2017 12:20 am

Hello,

Hurricane Irma is fast approaching the Lesser Antilles. For those airlines that only operate props to those islands, where can they fly their planes to so they will be safe? With 140 MPH winds expected to blow through the chain of islands within the next few days, what options do these airlines that primarily fly turboprops have? I can list the following airlines:

Winward Islands Airways

Anguilla Air

Saint Barths Commuters

Air Antilles

and

Liat

what is there plan for an event like this?

flymco753 · Tue Sep 05, 2017 12:25 am

SXM will be closed during that time, I just got out of SXM before a Cat 4 storm hit a few years ago.

jumbojet · Tue Sep 05, 2017 12:31 am

flymco753 wrote:
SXM will be closed during that time, I just got out of SXM before a Cat 4 storm hit a few years ago.

As I am sure every airport in the L.A.'s will be closed but what I am interested in learning is where are all these turbo props flown to so that they will be safe? I mean, it looks like most of the major L.A. islands could get a direct hit by Irma. There's an awful lot of commercial props out there, they all cant fly to a safe haven and they all can't be 'sheltered' for lack of a better word.

flymco753 · Tue Sep 05, 2017 12:38 am

jumbojet wrote:
flymco753 wrote:
SXM will be closed during that time, I just got out of SXM before a Cat 4 storm hit a few years ago.

As I am sure every airport in the L.A.'s will be closed but what I am interested in learning is where are all these turbo props flown to so that they will be safe? I mean, it looks like most of the major L.A. islands could get a direct hit by Irma. There's an awful lot of commercial props out there, they all cant fly to a safe haven and they all can't be 'sheltered' for lack of a better word.

I wonder too, Winair own's twin otters, Irma would toss those like toys.

smokeybandit · Tue Sep 05, 2017 12:41 am

I'd be concerned at MIA or FLL.

jumbojet · Tue Sep 05, 2017 12:48 am

smokeybandit wrote:
I'd be concerned at MIA or FLL.

Nah. Anything at FLL/MIA can easily fly out of harms way.

jumbojet · Tue Sep 05, 2017 12:54 am

Giving some thought, I guess some of these airlines can ping pong their planes to the states. If leaving from SXM, I guess they can make stops at SDQ, SJU and eventually make there way inland to the states. If that's the case, it will be spotters heaven out there.

TropicalSky · Tue Sep 05, 2017 1:01 am

jumbojet wrote:
Hello,

Hurricane Irma is fast approaching the Lesser Antilles. For those airlines that only operate props to those islands, where can they fly their planes to so they will be safe? With 140 MPH winds expected to blow through the chain of islands within the next few days, what options do these airlines that primarily fly turboprops have? I can list the following airlines:

Winward Islands Airways

Anguilla Air

Saint Barths Commuters

Air Antilles

and

Liat

what is there plan for an event like this?

Those airlines would probably just fly down to BGI - Bridgetown Barbados or Trinidad

Midwestindy · Tue Sep 05, 2017 1:09 am

Irma will have a significant impact on Cuba/DR/Bahamas, and probably EYW and South Florida as well. Depending on the track of the storm it could be pretty bad....

jumbojet · Tue Sep 05, 2017 1:12 am

Midwestindy wrote:
Irma will have a significant impact on Cuba/DR/Bahamas, and probably EYW and South Florida as well. Depending on the track of the storm it could be pretty bad....

CNN just mentioned it could hit land as a cat 5.

It definitely looks like we will be impacted by a major hurricane that is a Category 3, 4 or 5

full article here:

http://www.cnn.com/2017/09/04/us/hurric ... index.html

Zidane · Tue Sep 05, 2017 1:12 am

Think they'll fly them to the Southern islands, the Windward Antilles are safe from the storm. I can remember some time ago, Winair flew in their planes to SLU for similar reasons. .

windian425 · Tue Sep 05, 2017 1:13 am

LIAT is sending its fleet of ATR's to BGI until the passage of the storm.

ua900 · Tue Sep 05, 2017 1:15 am

jumbojet wrote:
Hello,

Hurricane Irma is fast approaching the Lesser Antilles. For those airlines that only operate props to those islands, where can they fly their planes to so they will be safe? With 140 MPH winds expected to blow through the chain of islands within the next few days, what options do these airlines that primarily fly turboprops have? I can list the following airlines:

Winward Islands Airways

Anguilla Air

Saint Barths Commuters

Air Antilles

and

Liat

what is there plan for an event like this?

There don't seem to be any cancellations south of PTP at this point. LIAT could always send planes to their hub at BGI, the others maybe DOM, SLU or whatever is deemed safe and doable at the time the decision is made.

jumbojet wrote:
Giving some thought, I guess some of these airlines can ping pong their planes to the states. If leaving from SXM, I guess they can make stops at SDQ, SJU and eventually make there way inland to the states. If that's the case, it will be spotters heaven out there.

There are other directions besides westbound, especially if trying to escape a storm that has a good chance of going the same direction. From a spotters perspective somewhere stateside would be awesome ;-)

isp2 · Tue Sep 05, 2017 7:01 am

Getting back to the initial question in this thread, I can confirm that Cape Air moved their 15 SJU based frames to CUR.

atcsundevil · Tue Sep 05, 2017 7:05 am

Please make sure that this discussion relates to the aviation impact of this storm, not a general discussion on the storm itself or damage reports. The Harvey thread went pretty off the rails with general storm updates, which is a non-aviation forum subject. Please limit the discussion here to the aviation impacts and effects due to this storm.

✈️ atcsundevil

jumbojet · Tue Sep 05, 2017 12:17 pm

Irma now a cat 5. Sustained winds reaching 175 MPH.

RL757PVD · Tue Sep 05, 2017 12:29 pm

When was the last time SXM had a direct hit of a Cat 4/5 hurricane? I know they have had a few glancing blows but never a direct hit that strong. I suppose my annual January trip will depend on how well my timeshare fares in the storm since its only about 10-15 ft above sea level. Anguilla looks to be obliterated....

jumbojet · Tue Sep 05, 2017 12:38 pm

RL757PVD wrote:
When was the last time SXM had a direct hit of a Cat 4/5 hurricane? I know they have had a few glancing blows but never a direct hit that strong. I suppose my annual January trip will depend on how well my timeshare fares in the storm since its only about 10-15 ft above sea level. Anguilla looks to be obliterated....

I suppose my October trip to sxm will also be scrubbed. I mean, I know these Islands rely primarily on tourism for survival so usually they are pretty quick at getting things repaired and up to snuff but a direct hit from a cat 5, not much will be left standing.

Category
Sustained Winds
Types of Damage Due to Hurricane Winds
5
(major)
157 mph or higher
137 kt or higher
252 km/h or higher
Catastrophic damage will occur: A high percentage of framed homes will be destroyed, with total roof failure and wall collapse. Fallen trees and power poles will isolate residential areas. Power outages will last for weeks to possibly months. Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks or months.

More here:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php

tjwgrr · Tue Sep 05, 2017 1:37 pm

Looks like AA and Sunwing have brought in additional a/c for flights out of SXM:

http://flightaware.com/live/flight/AAL9277
http://flightaware.com/live/flight/SWG9762
http://flightaware.com/live/flight/SWG9764

Lemieux · Tue Sep 05, 2017 1:43 pm

tjwgrr wrote:
Looks like AA and Sunwing have brought in additional a/c for flights out of SXM:

http://flightaware.com/live/flight/AAL9277
http://flightaware.com/live/flight/SWG9762
http://flightaware.com/live/flight/SWG9764

Was just gonna bring up AA9227, looks like it'll evac whoever missed that Miami flight earlier and the CLT/PHL pax

jumbojet · Tue Sep 05, 2017 1:49 pm

Speaking of evacuations, how do you evacuate an entire Island? I mean, I'm sure its no easy feat to evacuate a city, but in hurricane Harvey's case, your evacuating a city; get in your car and drive away from danger. You cant do that on a relatively small island hundreds of miles out in the North Atlantic.

RL757PVD · Tue Sep 05, 2017 1:59 pm

The local news there doesn't seem to be overly concerned,
http://smn-news.com/st-maarten-st-marti ... tions.html

Looking back I have not seen any instance of a storm of this severity hitting SXM, most, if not all have been Cat 1,2 or 3 for direct/near direct hits.

Forecast to be 180 mph within 12 hrs which would likely be considered a Cat 6 if it existed, a 10 ft storm surge would be catastrophic for the Airport, Philipsburg, Marigot and Orient Beach,

izbtmnhd · Tue Sep 05, 2017 2:43 pm

RL757PVD wrote:
The local news there doesn't seem to be overly concerned,
http://smn-news.com/st-maarten-st-marti ... tions.html

Looking back I have not seen any instance of a storm of this severity hitting SXM, most, if not all have been Cat 1,2 or 3 for direct/near direct hits.

Forecast to be 180 mph within 12 hrs which would likely be considered a Cat 6 if it existed, a 10 ft storm surge would be catastrophic for the Airport, Philipsburg, Marigot and Orient Beach,

I understand why the local media is not going into hysterics. What can islanders do besides boarding up their homes and businesses? Can't drive to Kansas.

It's refreshing compared to US media.

ty97 · Tue Sep 05, 2017 2:49 pm

Looks like AA9275 went to SKB this morning as well.

tjwgrr · Tue Sep 05, 2017 3:00 pm

BA into ANU early this a.m.:

http://flightaware.com/live/flight/BAW9158

izbtmnhd · Tue Sep 05, 2017 3:03 pm

Tropical storm force winds won't hit the NE Antilles until later this afternoon and won't reach the Virgin Islands until early Wednesday. Still time to get aircraft out.

As for the US, Irma forecast bumped a bit further north and is to pass over the Florida Keys by Day 5.

RL757PVD · Tue Sep 05, 2017 3:15 pm

izbtmnhd wrote:

I understand why the local media is not going into hysterics. What can islanders do besides boarding up their homes and businesses? Can't drive to Kansas.

It's refreshing compared to US media.

While I agree our media over-hype's it, the Island has never had a direct hit of anything greater than a Cat 2 or maybe 3, this would be a 6 if it existed...

What I found interesting is that the shelters only open AFTER the storm has passed https://thedailyherald.sx/islands/69220 ... e-shelters

A 10 ft storm surge would put the two largest population centers (Philipsburg and Marigot) underwater.

I expect a lot of the lower quality buildings near the airport will result in ancillary damage to the airport itself and increased debris to be cleaned up (storm now packing 180 mph winds and showing an SXM landfall), I would expect the airfield to be underwater during the height of the storm as well.

izbtmnhd · Tue Sep 05, 2017 3:31 pm

RL757PVD wrote:

While I agree our media over-hype's it, the Island has never had a direct hit of anything greater than a Cat 2 or maybe 3, this would be a 6 if it existed...

It's the first Atlantic Cat 5 that isn't located in the Gulf or Caribbean Sea. So you are right, this uncharted territory. Are the shelters located in a flood prone place? Maybe that's why they are holding off until after.

As if Irma wasn't bad enough now there is Tropical Storm Jose in the Eastern Atlantic with the NE Antilles in the cone of probability for Day 4-5.

jumbojet · Tue Sep 05, 2017 3:51 pm

Irma's track has it taking it smack dab in the middle of Miami now with possible wind speeds of 145 MPH. The distance from MIA to the Atlantic is 12.9 miles. While its still to far out to say it will make a direct hit on Miami, I would imagine AA needs to start considering getting its assets out of MIA and possibly B6 getting their assets out of FLL.

ty97 · Tue Sep 05, 2017 4:00 pm

jumbojet wrote:
Irma's track has it taking it smack dab in the middle of Miami now with possible wind speeds of 145 MPH. The distance from MIA to the Atlantic is 12.9 miles. While its still to far out to say it will make a direct hit on Miami, I would imagine AA needs to start conserving getting its assets out of MIA and possibly B6 getting their assets out of FLL.

I am going to guess (or hope?) that the airlines have a template plan designed to be implemented in (X timeframe) as/when needed. It will just be a matter of determining when (if) they need to activate the plan.

readytotaxi · Tue Sep 05, 2017 4:05 pm

tjwgrr wrote:
BA into ANU early this a.m.:

http://flightaware.com/live/flight/BAW9158

However tomorrows flight has now been cancelled

SoJo · Tue Sep 05, 2017 6:09 pm

Hello all. St Barts is deserted (via their camera) and the last flight out at SXM was 13:56. LIAT flight

RL757PVD · Tue Sep 05, 2017 6:19 pm

Its up to 185 mph and showing a projected landfall on St. Maarten, I could not find any reference to anything greater than 115 mph ever affecting the Island. If this holds, it will be truly devastating and historic for the Island taking years to recover.

Midwestindy · Tue Sep 05, 2017 6:20 pm

jumbojet wrote:
Irma's track has it taking it smack dab in the middle of Miami now with possible wind speeds of 145 MPH. The distance from MIA to the Atlantic is 12.9 miles. While its still to far out to say it will make a direct hit on Miami, I would imagine AA needs to start considering getting its assets out of MIA and possibly B6 getting their assets out of FLL.

The predictions have been wildly inaccurate with this storm, they predicted the storm would be at 140 MPH right now......it is at 185 MPH! They have been underestimating the wind speeds so I wonder if it could be even stronger than 145 MPH when it hits MIA. Also at this point, it looks like MCO, FLL, and TPA could be affected.

LimaFoxTango · Tue Sep 05, 2017 6:37 pm

jumbojet wrote:
Speaking of evacuations, how do you evacuate an entire Island? I mean, I'm sure its no easy feat to evacuate a city, but in hurricane Harvey's case, your evacuating a city; get in your car and drive away from danger. You cant do that on a relatively small island hundreds of miles out in the North Atlantic.

You dont. The only people who are leaving are tourists and other vacationers who do not call the islands home. The locals aren't going anywhere. No one would want to be stuck in a strange country after a Cat 5 hurricane has hit. Lord knows flights won't return to these islands till about Friday at best.

gunnerman · Tue Sep 05, 2017 6:46 pm

BA has today (5 September) cancelled its LGW-ANU-TAB and tomorrow's LGW-ANU-SKB.

However, VS is operating today's LGW-ANU-UVF.

fd122 · Tue Sep 05, 2017 6:51 pm

Things are definitely not looking good here in Antigua. I think a lot of people underestimated this storm and so far it looks like it will be making a direct or near direct hit on us. From what I have seen the airport is closed or soon to be closed. Hopefully the new airport was built with hurricane standards in mind. I hope this is no where near Hurricane Luis (1995) or worse. I was 12 at the time but remember not having power or school for over 2 months! It will take a long time to recover. Most flight and private planes have evacuated to the southern islands.

And Hurricane Luis hit on exactly Sept 5th 1995. Coincidence? Likely but still strange that it will be the same date.

gunnerman · Tue Sep 05, 2017 7:16 pm

Virgin Atlantic's VS083 (LGW-ANU-UVF) has recently arrived at UVF. But if ANU will soon close, then it's possible that the return flight (VS084) will be UVF-LGW, leaving the ANU-LGW passengers to be rebooked on other flights.

ty97 · Tue Sep 05, 2017 8:01 pm

RL757PVD wrote:
Its up to 185 mph and showing a projected landfall on St. Maarten, I could not find any reference to anything greater than 115 mph ever affecting the Island. If this holds, it will be truly devastating and historic for the Island taking years to recover.

Nothing this strong has ever (as long as recorded exists) been in the open Atlantic (there have been storms this strong in the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea only).

gunnerman · Tue Sep 05, 2017 8:02 pm

Antigua-based LIAT has been badly affected, cancelling 36 flights today and 32 tomorrow.

https://www.liat.com/navSource.html?page_id=973

jumbojet · Tue Sep 05, 2017 8:14 pm

fd122 wrote:
. Hopefully the new airport was built with hurricane standards in mind..

Irma is a beast. 185 MPH. Hopefully the terminal consists of 100% reinforced concrete and steel. Anything that's not, its downright scary to think what will happen.

gunnerman · Tue Sep 05, 2017 8:23 pm

BA is operating right now a special flight (BA2156) to get its Antigua passengers home. The flight is expected to arrive at LGW at 0208 tomorrow, an unusual time but I expect that none of the passengers will be concerned about that.

baje427 · Tue Sep 05, 2017 8:31 pm

Given the strength of Irma I am thinking most of these islands will be obliterated I am here in BGI which is miles away yet we are having the sea coming over into the roads in our capital. I hope much lives are not lost because at this point most properties cannot survive this no matter how well they have been built. On the aviation front I noticed Fedex and DHL have ferried all of their Caravans out of Puerto Rico and Winnair and St. Barts Commuter have ferried their aircraft down to St.Vincent.

nine4nine · Tue Sep 05, 2017 9:03 pm

Looks like a double whammy as NOAA hurricane models show Tropical Storm Jose (closely on the heels of Irma) turning into a hurricane and narrowly missing a direct hit on the Lesser Antilles. A slight deviation of this storms projected path to the south will have another direct blow.

YYZSpotter1991 · Tue Sep 05, 2017 9:35 pm

Jose looks to be changing direction within a couple of days and more towards the northwest, which would have it miss the Antilles almost entirely as it looks to barrel the US east coast. If that holds up, SXM could hopefully have the first flights come in by Friday.

jumbojet · Tue Sep 05, 2017 10:04 pm

YYZSpotter1991 wrote:
Jose looks to be changing direction within a couple of days and more towards the northwest, which would have it miss the Antilles almost entirely as it looks to barrel the US east coast. If that holds up, SXM could hopefully have the first flights come in by Friday.

If there will be any flights into SXM and surrounding airports on Friday, I am afraid to say they will most likely not be for regular passengers. The way things are looking now, any flights for a while will probably be for search and rescue and recovery.

What's crazy, go to the weather.com website and put SXM into the location finder and then select hourly forecast. Looks like things start going south at SXM around 3:00 AM Wednesday morning and continuing until 8:00 PM Wednesday night with peak sustained winds of 148 MPH at 11:00 AM. It will be hell in SXM for 15 hours tomorrow.

https://weather.com/weather/hourbyhour/l/SXM:9:NT

yellowtail · Tue Sep 05, 2017 10:13 pm

Us fellow residents of the Caribbean wish our brothers and sisters in SXM/ANu etc well. Having been through some cat 4s myself, it won't be pretty. If a Cat 5 hits SXM direct, there is no way SXM airport will be up and running properly by Friday. It won't be a pick up the limbs scenario. there Will be major damage. 2 weeks if there are lucky for non relief flights.

303dk · Tue Sep 05, 2017 10:22 pm

Cape Air cancelled all flights today and flew aircraft out. STT and STX closed at 6pm. Seaborne stopped operating at 3:30pm, but no word on where they're hiding aircraft

Midwestindy · Tue Sep 05, 2017 10:43 pm

YYZSpotter1991 wrote:
SXM could hopefully have the first flights come in by Friday.

I hope you aren't talking about passenger flights, because if so I don't think you have you seen what a Cat 5 hurricane can do! There have only been 32 tropical cyclones that reached Category 5 in Recorded history! Irma is the strongest hurricane in the Atlantic in decades, and top 5 of all time in terms of wind speed. In terms of damage I wouldn't be shocked if we start talking in the billions. Most US airports wouldn't be open for at least a week or two!

The Miami Dolphins have already canceled their regular season opener this weekend, 5 days in advance, that is how serious people are taking this storm.

heysfo · Tue Sep 05, 2017 10:51 pm

Looking at Flightradar24 looks like the ABC Islands are taking a lot of aircraft from Puerto Rico

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