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N14AZ
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Re: The Dubai Air Show Nov 2017. What Major Announcements Do You Expect?

Sun Sep 03, 2017 8:45 pm

rotating14 wrote:
JoergAtADN wrote:
If the A380 Plus will be launched there, I would expect IAG to be a major launch customer. A launch for EK only is unlikly to happen.
Most A380 Plus orders will be conversions of existing A380 orders already in the books.

Airbus will show a presentation how they could bump up the range of the A350.
If not, Quantas will announce an order of the 777-8x.

Emirates will place an order for the A350-900 or for an improved 787-10.

Etihad will be silent, Qatar will be loud - but both are not in a situation were they should place big widebody orders.



The A380 Plus was already launched.

My understanding from the last Le Bourget show is that it's just a concept study and has not been launched yet.
 
Jayafe
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Re: The Dubai Air Show Nov 2017. What Major Announcements Do You Expect?

Sun Sep 03, 2017 8:51 pm

rotating14 wrote:
The A380 Plus was already launched.


It has been presented as a prospection. Not confirmed it will be built.
 
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TheLion
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Re: The Dubai Air Show Nov 2017. What Major Announcements Do You Expect?

Sun Sep 03, 2017 8:52 pm

Dutchy wrote:
Strato2 wrote:
This is just a gut feeling but Emirates will do with Boeing what it did when it axed the A350 in favor of more A380's but this time it will reduce the massive 777X order and convert them to 787's.


That might actually be quite logical. Trading in 777x orders for 78X orders. Gives them more flexibility in years to come, if the need arises, they could always reorder the 777X. This will not please Boeing though, 777X isn't doing that well, except in the Middle East.


Agree with you both; was thinking the same myself. Unless the B777X order is to replace their B77W fleet, which is stretching it given timescales, then I just don't see EK's growth being sufficient to be able to utilise such large scale aircraft. This given increasing competition from emerging markets, LCC airlines, plus legacies taking deliveries of aircraft which can overfly the Middle East and thus take Emirates's traffic, like they once did to others, including many of these same said legacies.
 
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enzo011
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Re: The Dubai Air Show Nov 2017. What Major Announcements Do You Expect?

Sun Sep 03, 2017 8:53 pm

RL777 wrote:
zeke wrote:
RL777 wrote:
I'm hopeful Emirates will announce it's decision from the A350/787 RFP, although recent developments have been quiet on that front.


Other members have stated that the decision had already been made.


Must've missed that, the previous thread was quite lengthy. Did those members state which aircraft family was chosen ?



The 787 as the manuals/documentation are already at EK.
 
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Slash787
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Re: The Dubai Air Show Nov 2017. What Major Announcements Do You Expect?

Sun Sep 03, 2017 9:10 pm

Could we see some NEO orders from Air Arabia?
 
Waterbomber
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Re: The Dubai Air Show Nov 2017. What Major Announcements Do You Expect?

Sun Sep 03, 2017 9:29 pm

TheLion wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
Strato2 wrote:
This is just a gut feeling but Emirates will do with Boeing what it did when it axed the A350 in favor of more A380's but this time it will reduce the massive 777X order and convert them to 787's.


That might actually be quite logical. Trading in 777x orders for 78X orders. Gives them more flexibility in years to come, if the need arises, they could always reorder the 777X. This will not please Boeing though, 777X isn't doing that well, except in the Middle East.


Agree with you both; was thinking the same myself. Unless the B777X order is to replace their B77W fleet, which is stretching it given timescales, then I just don't see EK's growth being sufficient to be able to utilise such large scale aircraft. This given increasing competition from emerging markets, LCC airlines, plus legacies taking deliveries of aircraft which can overfly the Middle East and thus take Emirates's traffic, like they once did to others, including many of these same said legacies.


I see EK being interested in such a move but what's in it for Boeing?
Boeing is doing pretty well on the B787 backlog, they have a steady production and good demand. The B77X on the other hand is still in development and not many airlines have shown appetite for the type. Why should Boeing give up B787 slots that they could sell anyway for B77X slots that they'll have a hard time selling? Also, a decrease in orders from EK after the one from LH will put the B77X right next to the A380 in the category of "unsellables" before it even rolls off the production line.

It only makes sense in one way.

If I were Boeing, I'd be selling EK B787's without accepting any B777X cancellations. They have no choice anyway, can't squeeze 10 abreast on the XWB, which is too much aircraft anyway.
 
Arion640
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Re: The Dubai Air Show Nov 2017. What Major Announcements Do You Expect?

Sun Sep 03, 2017 10:39 pm

enzo011 wrote:
RL777 wrote:
zeke wrote:

Other members have stated that the decision had already been made.


Must've missed that, the previous thread was quite lengthy. Did those members state which aircraft family was chosen ?



The 787 as the manuals/documentation are already at EK.


Does that really mean anything? I'm sure they get a lot of documentation sent from both A and B. Technical and economic.

My personal opinion however is that it will be the 787. Not sure if it will be ordered at Dubai airshow however.
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dubaiamman243
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Re: The Dubai Air Show Nov 2017. What Major Announcements Do You Expect?

Sun Sep 03, 2017 10:45 pm

Emirates won't let go this year's airshow without announcing an order.
 
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Rajahdhani
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Re: The Dubai Air Show Nov 2017. What Major Announcements Do You Expect?

Mon Sep 04, 2017 1:04 am

Why would Airbus not market the A380Plus to QF?

QF's capacity is under review, and has recently posted it's second most profitable quarter - of all time. While the 787 is being used fantastically to open up new, chiefly-Australian based routes (as not openly using the EK JV, bypassing it towards perceived greater value, and perhaps greater yields) - the A350 vs 777-8/9 considerations pile on. Not that the A380Plus will be capable of their proposed need for SYD-LHR, or even SYD-JFK non-stop, it would allow QF to convert their remaining A380 orders; and capitalize upon where the A380Plus shines; modular cabin design and the benefits of the 'tweaks' to lower fuel consumption. Working the current A380 fleet is necessary, if only to well amortize the asset - and at current set, it requires quite some doing to keep yields at a level where the aircraft hits high yields consistently - but QF is doing that well and kudos. The A380Plus might indeed prove the goal for many current A380 operators, that have learned to work them well enough - to have even considered an A380NEO to begin with. Not that QF would, or did - however, if they are doing this well - with what they have, it is not inconceivable that they are considering all alternatives towards betterment and solidifying their gains.

While it is all fluff; consider the marketing below...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=on5AsWxR5_s
 
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ElroyJetson
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Re: The Dubai Air Show Nov 2017. What Major Announcements Do You Expect?

Mon Sep 04, 2017 3:02 am

I don't think EK will convert 777x orders. Their large 77W and 777LR fleet will need to be replaced, as well as the 380 eventually. The 777x should do that well.

I think a mix of 78J and 359 would be a logical move for those routes needing either less range or capacity. Both are highly efficient frames that along with the 777x could cover virtually any mission they might need.
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enzo011
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Re: The Dubai Air Show Nov 2017. What Major Announcements Do You Expect?

Mon Sep 04, 2017 6:29 am

Arion640 wrote:
Does that really mean anything? I'm sure they get a lot of documentation sent from both A and B. Technical and economic.

My personal opinion however is that it will be the 787. Not sure if it will be ordered at Dubai airshow however.



Just repeating what was said by an EK employee in the last thread.
 
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Dutchy
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Re: The Dubai Air Show Nov 2017. What Major Announcements Do You Expect?

Mon Sep 04, 2017 7:24 am

Waterbomber wrote:
TheLion wrote:
Dutchy wrote:

That might actually be quite logical. Trading in 777x orders for 78X orders. Gives them more flexibility in years to come, if the need arises, they could always reorder the 777X. This will not please Boeing though, 777X isn't doing that well, except in the Middle East.


Agree with you both; was thinking the same myself. Unless the B777X order is to replace their B77W fleet, which is stretching it given timescales, then I just don't see EK's growth being sufficient to be able to utilise such large scale aircraft. This given increasing competition from emerging markets, LCC airlines, plus legacies taking deliveries of aircraft which can overfly the Middle East and thus take Emirates's traffic, like they once did to others, including many of these same said legacies.


I see EK being interested in such a move but what's in it for Boeing?
Boeing is doing pretty well on the B787 backlog, they have a steady production and good demand. The B77X on the other hand is still in development and not many airlines have shown appetite for the type. Why should Boeing give up B787 slots that they could sell anyway for B77X slots that they'll have a hard time selling? Also, a decrease in orders from EK after the one from LH will put the B77X right next to the A380 in the category of "unsellables" before it even rolls off the production line.

It only makes sense in one way.

If I were Boeing, I'd be selling EK B787's without accepting any B777X cancellations. They have no choice anyway, can't squeeze 10 abreast on the XWB, which is too much aircraft anyway.


Why did Airbus give up some A380 sales to get A350 sales, Air France springs to mind. I think the same reasoning, they want an extra order and not to piss-off an important customer. You state that EK has no choice, I beg to differ, they always have a choice. Does Boeing make it hard, sure it will, but even though they will make the deal if it is in their interest to do so.

As for the 777X being "unsellable", better to realize that now, then after the program really starts to absorb the big bugs, although the first metal must have been cut already. Perhaps then Boeing will turn it into something that is attractive to buyers, they stand to lose billions of Dollar in revenue in the replacement market for the 77W.
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worldranger
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Re: The Dubai Air Show Nov 2017. What Major Announcements Do You Expect?

Mon Sep 04, 2017 8:29 am

At a guess,777X converted to 787 by EK.

According to AviationWeek website Morgan Stanley just issued a caution to Boeing investors citing ME3 exposure on 7X. Based on changing market fundamentals going forward -order completion from gulf carriers unlikely on larger twins.

Qatar will not be there. Al Baker has actually damaged the ME3's brand significantly. Rather than engage in a non threatening charm offensive - he has become the villain invoking global domination with his rash comments. Even casual business travellers are turned off by his interviews on Quest and such.

In today's Geo political airline battles - optically it is important that the ME3 put forward a voice and face that creates trust, empathy etc in the marketplace. QR shareholders have failed in that regard. Delta went so far as to make an internal video slamming the ME3 and used a clip of AAB to highlight the arrogance.

They need to hire a Branson-esque image consultant to get back on track.
Last edited by worldranger on Mon Sep 04, 2017 8:31 am, edited 2 times in total.
 
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BoeingVista
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Re: The Dubai Air Show Nov 2017. What Major Announcements Do You Expect?

Mon Sep 04, 2017 8:29 am

Waterbomber wrote:
I see EK being interested in such a move but what's in it for Boeing?
Boeing is doing pretty well on the B787 backlog, they have a steady production and good demand. The B77X on the other hand is still in development and not many airlines have shown appetite for the type. Why should Boeing give up B787 slots that they could sell anyway for B77X slots that they'll have a hard time selling? Also, a decrease in orders from EK after the one from LH will put the B77X right next to the A380 in the category of "unsellables" before it even rolls off the production line.

It only makes sense in one way.

If I were Boeing, I'd be selling EK B787's without accepting any B777X cancellations. They have no choice anyway, can't squeeze 10 abreast on the XWB, which is too much aircraft anyway.


Launch contracts usually have very generous pricing and cancellation terms EK could probably walk away from the majority of the order with no penalty. But why would Boeing risk annoying a major customer, if EK want to swap something would be worked out.

Personally I see them cancelling most 777X anyway and going A380plus + A350-900/1000 :stirthepot:
BV
 
scotron11
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Re: The Dubai Air Show Nov 2017. What Major Announcements Do You Expect?

Mon Sep 04, 2017 9:21 am

If any ME3 is going to cancel or defer I would think it more so EY than EK, According to the EY website, they have 62 A350s and 25 777X on order. And they have certainly racked up some big losses recently. Plus right now no replacement for Horton et al
 
scotron11
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Re: The Dubai Air Show Nov 2017. What Major Announcements Do You Expect?

Mon Sep 04, 2017 9:22 am

scotron11 wrote:
If any ME3 is going to cancel or defer I would think it more so EY than EK, According to the EY website, they have 62 A350s and 25 777X on order. And they have certainly racked up some big losses recently. Plus right now no replacement for Horton et al



Oops!! Should be HOGAN..........apologies!!
 
Ugly51
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Re: The Dubai Air Show Nov 2017. What Major Announcements Do You Expect?

Mon Sep 04, 2017 9:37 am

rbavfan wrote:
Akbar Al Baker will complain about something that no one else cares about. If he is allowed into Dubai to attend the show. After all sense the Blockade he has been surprisingly quiet.


Iam sure he has been told by the Emir of Qatar what his parameters The meeting between Airbus would not have been a coincidence.)
Do not underestimate Qatar's. Sovereign Wealth Fund. I have worked there and know that as far as they are concerned. This disagreement with the other Arab nations is a Blip on their radar as far as they are concerned.
 
Jomar777
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Re: The Dubai Air Show Nov 2017. What Major Announcements Do You Expect?

Mon Sep 04, 2017 10:43 am

rbavfan wrote:
Akbar Al Baker will complain about something that no one else cares about. If he is allowed into Dubai to attend the show. After all sense the Blockade he has been surprisingly quiet.


The fact that Bahrain airspace is now open to Qatar Airways as well as his election as Chairman of IATA has kept him busy and allowed him to keep a low profile.
I do not expect anything from QR this show but we never know if they may not make a A350-1000 order (who knows...) just to divert publicity.
EK will probably order big on the 787 but I see some A350s going their way too as a sweetener for the non order (or low order) of A380s (CEO or NEO).

Apart from this, hard to see anything else.

I would hope for a A322 and B797 announcement for some sort but it is only hope.
 
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reidar76
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Re: The Dubai Air Show Nov 2017. What Major Announcements Do You Expect?

Mon Sep 04, 2017 10:44 am

I think there will be very few new orders at the Dubai air show this year. There will be a lot of conversions thought, with some top-up orders.

As many others have mentioned in this tread, I think some EK 77X orders will be converted to 787 orders. For example, I will not be surprised if EK reduced their 77X order by approximately 50 aircraft, and then ordered 70 787s. The 787 backlog is rapidly decreasing, so even if Boeing doesn't like it, it is much better than risking EK canceling the entire 77X order. The other ME3 airlines might do the same. Lufthansa might convert their entire 77X order, or outright canceling the order. I don't expect any new 77X orders.

If the A380 has any future, there needs to be A380 plus orders at the show. I have my doubts, but I think we will see a few A350-1000 orders from IAG among others.

Maybe we will also see some conversions from A350-900 to A330neo. Will the first A330neo visit the show?

Looking into the crystal ball, there will be conversions (downsizing) of widebody aircraft, mostly 77X to 787, and A350-900 to A330neo. Relatively few narrowbody orders compared to previous airshows. Some new 787 orders, especially the 787-10. Maybe a few new A350-1000 orders if Airbus is lucky.
 
Planesmart
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Re: The Dubai Air Show Nov 2017. What Major Announcements Do You Expect?

Mon Sep 04, 2017 11:13 am

worldranger wrote:
At a guess,777X converted to 787 by EK.

According to AviationWeek website Morgan Stanley just issued a caution to Boeing investors citing ME3 exposure on 7X. Based on changing market fundamentals going forward -order completion from gulf carriers unlikely on larger twins.

The Emirates / Qatar 777X orders, are inter-related, in respect to pricing and T&C's. Any volume changes will almost certainly have pricing consequences.

Since late last year, some X customers have been negotiating changes to numbers (lower), and many to deferring deliveries.
 
Planesmart
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Re: The Dubai Air Show Nov 2017. What Major Announcements Do You Expect?

Mon Sep 04, 2017 11:26 am

enzo011 wrote:
Arion640 wrote:
Does that really mean anything? I'm sure they get a lot of documentation sent from both A and B. Technical and economic.

My personal opinion however is that it will be the 787. Not sure if it will be ordered at Dubai airshow however.



Just repeating what was said by an EK employee in the last thread.

If a genuine EK employee has been quoted, and it's true, then EK wants Airbus to know. The only reason EK would want Airbus to know, is for negotiating leverage, which implies a decision hasn't been made.

The funding of the built but undelivered A380's hasn't been disclosed, but it's likely a collaborative effort, involving Airbus, RR and EK.
That suggests EK owes a few favours. Are they likely to be revealed at Dubai?
 
mjoelnir
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Re: The Dubai Air Show Nov 2017. What Major Announcements Do You Expect?

Mon Sep 04, 2017 12:09 pm

Waterbomber wrote:
TheLion wrote:
Dutchy wrote:

That might actually be quite logical. Trading in 777x orders for 78X orders. Gives them more flexibility in years to come, if the need arises, they could always reorder the 777X. This will not please Boeing though, 777X isn't doing that well, except in the Middle East.


Agree with you both; was thinking the same myself. Unless the B777X order is to replace their B77W fleet, which is stretching it given timescales, then I just don't see EK's growth being sufficient to be able to utilise such large scale aircraft. This given increasing competition from emerging markets, LCC airlines, plus legacies taking deliveries of aircraft which can overfly the Middle East and thus take Emirates's traffic, like they once did to others, including many of these same said legacies.


I see EK being interested in such a move but what's in it for Boeing?
Boeing is doing pretty well on the B787 backlog, they have a steady production and good demand. The B77X on the other hand is still in development and not many airlines have shown appetite for the type. Why should Boeing give up B787 slots that they could sell anyway for B77X slots that they'll have a hard time selling? Also, a decrease in orders from EK after the one from LH will put the B77X right next to the A380 in the category of "unsellables" before it even rolls off the production line.

It only makes sense in one way.

If I were Boeing, I'd be selling EK B787's without accepting any B777X cancellations. They have no choice anyway, can't squeeze 10 abreast on the XWB, which is too much aircraft anyway.


Boeing is doing well in cutting down the 787 backlog, but orders do not come in fast enough to sustain a 12 frame per month production.
Over ten years, from 2007 to now 2017 the yearly order intake for the 787 has been on average 46 frames per year. Over the last five years the order intake has been 84 frames per year. That would sustain a production rate of 7 frames a month.

I think it is a dream of Boeing fans, that the 777-9 will replace A380 at EK. The ordered 777-8/9 will replace 777-200LR/300ER at EK.
The A380 coming of leasing will be replaced by A380, at least in the foreseeable future. Replacing A380 with 777 at a necessary rate of 3 777 for every 2 A380, would put a huge strain on the need to find additional crew.

A canceling of EK 777-8/9 orders would have catastrophic effect on the 777-8/9 program.
I do not believe that EK will convert 777 orders to 787 orders, but if EK wants to do that, Boeing will have to accept that, the alternative would be EK canceling the 777 and taking A350.
 
Arion640
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Re: The Dubai Air Show Nov 2017. What Major Announcements Do You Expect?

Mon Sep 04, 2017 6:28 pm

I really can't see EK replacing the A380 with the 777X until possibly very very far down the line. What some who haven't perhaps visited Dubai or flown emirates realise, is that Emirates market the A380 as the best aircraft around and the one you want to be flying. Look at the jennifer aniston adverts for example. Its not like BA or QF for example in which the A380 is just a people mover. Emirates stand out from the crowd (especially here in the UK) and that is because of the A380.

I might upset a few people by saying this but the 777X program is going to end up in a similar predicament as the A380 eventually. Its not really a hot seller.
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enzo011
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Re: The Dubai Air Show Nov 2017. What Major Announcements Do You Expect?

Mon Sep 04, 2017 7:07 pm

Planesmart wrote:
If a genuine EK employee has been quoted, and it's true, then EK wants Airbus to know. The only reason EK would want Airbus to know, is for negotiating leverage, which implies a decision hasn't been made.

The funding of the built but undelivered A380's hasn't been disclosed, but it's likely a collaborative effort, involving Airbus, RR and EK.
That suggests EK owes a few favours. Are they likely to be revealed at Dubai?



Well according to emiratesdriver the decision has been made already, I think this is what Zeke was referring to in his post. Its post 227 in the EK to place 787 or A350 order by the end of the year thread, as below.

emiratesdriver wrote:
Great debate about the various types relative merits, as I said previously unlikely to be anything other than 787's, the FCOM has been produced and the differences courses are being written as we speak. The decision has already been made, it just hasnt been announced, nor will it till the airshow. Currently there is no 350 operational documentation in the usual places as opposed to 787-9 and draft 10 info.
The 350 is a moot point, it won't be coming in any significant quantities.
 
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ElroyJetson
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Re: The Dubai Air Show Nov 2017. What Major Announcements Do You Expect?

Mon Sep 04, 2017 7:54 pm

The 78J and 789 effectively bracket the 359. You could use the fleet commonality argument I suppose. Either the 78J and 359 combination works or if EK wants something slightly smaller the 78J and 789. Hopefully whatever is decided the announcement is made at the airshow. This has dragged on for a least a year and half with all kinds of speculation.
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Planesmart
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Re: The Dubai Air Show Nov 2017. What Major Announcements Do You Expect?

Mon Sep 04, 2017 8:35 pm

enzo011 wrote:
Planesmart wrote:
If a genuine EK employee has been quoted, and it's true, then EK wants Airbus to know. The only reason EK would want Airbus to know, is for negotiating leverage, which implies a decision hasn't been made.

The funding of the built but undelivered A380's hasn't been disclosed, but it's likely a collaborative effort, involving Airbus, RR and EK.
That suggests EK owes a few favours. Are they likely to be revealed at Dubai?



Well according to emiratesdriver the decision has been made already, I think this is what Zeke was referring to in his post. Its post 227 in the EK to place 787 or A350 order by the end of the year thread, as below.

emiratesdriver wrote:
Great debate about the various types relative merits, as I said previously unlikely to be anything other than 787's, the FCOM has been produced and the differences courses are being written as we speak. The decision has already been made, it just hasnt been announced, nor will it till the airshow. Currently there is no 350 operational documentation in the usual places as opposed to 787-9 and draft 10 info.
The 350 is a moot point, it won't be coming in any significant quantities.

If as accurate with acquisition decisions as utilisation, take it with a grain of sand. Lets see some screenshot evidence.
 
Waterbomber
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Re: The Dubai Air Show Nov 2017. What Major Announcements Do You Expect?

Tue Sep 05, 2017 12:12 am

mjoelnir wrote:
Waterbomber wrote:
TheLion wrote:

Agree with you both; was thinking the same myself. Unless the B777X order is to replace their B77W fleet, which is stretching it given timescales, then I just don't see EK's growth being sufficient to be able to utilise such large scale aircraft. This given increasing competition from emerging markets, LCC airlines, plus legacies taking deliveries of aircraft which can overfly the Middle East and thus take Emirates's traffic, like they once did to others, including many of these same said legacies.


I see EK being interested in such a move but what's in it for Boeing?
Boeing is doing pretty well on the B787 backlog, they have a steady production and good demand. The B77X on the other hand is still in development and not many airlines have shown appetite for the type. Why should Boeing give up B787 slots that they could sell anyway for B77X slots that they'll have a hard time selling? Also, a decrease in orders from EK after the one from LH will put the B77X right next to the A380 in the category of "unsellables" before it even rolls off the production line.

It only makes sense in one way.

If I were Boeing, I'd be selling EK B787's without accepting any B777X cancellations. They have no choice anyway, can't squeeze 10 abreast on the XWB, which is too much aircraft anyway.


Boeing is doing well in cutting down the 787 backlog, but orders do not come in fast enough to sustain a 12 frame per month production.
Over ten years, from 2007 to now 2017 the yearly order intake for the 787 has been on average 46 frames per year. Over the last five years the order intake has been 84 frames per year. That would sustain a production rate of 7 frames a month.

I think it is a dream of Boeing fans, that the 777-9 will replace A380 at EK. The ordered 777-8/9 will replace 777-200LR/300ER at EK.
The A380 coming of leasing will be replaced by A380, at least in the foreseeable future. Replacing A380 with 777 at a necessary rate of 3 777 for every 2 A380, would put a huge strain on the need to find additional crew.

A canceling of EK 777-8/9 orders would have catastrophic effect on the 777-8/9 program.
I do not believe that EK will convert 777 orders to 787 orders, but if EK wants to do that, Boeing will have to accept that, the alternative would be EK canceling the 777 and taking A350.


The B787 backlog is being pushed lower but they still have 750 frames to build. That's a 6 year backlog, which puts them all the way into 2023. That's impressive considering that they're about to hit 600 built airframes. If they can rack up 50 orders a year, that pushes the backlog problem all the way into 2026 and that's without any need for a single order from Dubai. If we consider widebody programs as being cycles of 15-20 years, the B787's program cycle looks pretty complete.

Now the big worry is on the B777X.
I can see Boeing give generous terms in terms of launch pricing, but not in terms of cancellations. They have seen EK cancel their A350 orders and that's just something that they can't afford to let happen on their program.
Remember that EK is not the only one in line to cancel. Their cousins in AUH must be itching to do the same, while let's not even talk about what must be going through AAB's mind.
The B777X is almost 2 years away and its backlog is just worth 3 years at full production rate. Any significant cancellations or "conversions" at this point could see Boeing lose the market above the B787.

It makes one wonder whether it still makes sense to develop the B777X if all their customers want to cancel and move to something smaller.
If we take a long-term view, developping a higher gross weight B787-11 seems like the smarter option. The B777X will be dead by 2025 and Boeing will have nothing bigger than a B787-10 at that point. A B787-11 would seem like a smarter investment.

Thre was a topic a while ago: viewtopic.php?t=525879

Are Boeing already past the PNR? If they're going to have to develop a B787-11 in the future anyway, why not ditch the B777X, write-off the program cost incured until now (should be manageable) and put the rest of the money into a proper higher gross weight B787 family to compete more directly with the A350XWB.
Let's be honest with ourselves, the B77W is a dinosaur compared to the B787 and A350, and no amount of wingspan, fan diameter or flashy interiors is going to make the B777X any quieter than the B77W.
 
mjoelnir
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Re: The Dubai Air Show Nov 2017. What Major Announcements Do You Expect?

Tue Sep 05, 2017 9:12 am

Waterbomber wrote:
The B787 backlog is being pushed lower but they still have 750 frames to build. That's a 6 year backlog, which puts them all the way into 2023. That's impressive considering that they're about to hit 600 built airframes. If they can rack up 50 orders a year, that pushes the backlog problem all the way into 2026 and that's without any need for a single order from Dubai. If we consider widebody programs as being cycles of 15-20 years, the B787's program cycle looks pretty complete.


700 frames left according to http://www.boeing.com/commercial/. That makes it 5 years backlog at 140 frames a year, that puts them into mid year 2022. A build rate of 12 a month and 50 orders each year clears the complete backlog in 8 years, that would be 2025. Some of the orders can be for delivery past 2022. Furthermore some orders may be deferred. If orders do not increase I expect a rate reduction, perhaps in 3 years.

The fate of the 777-8/9 hangs on the fate of Emirates or better said on he fate of the ME3.
 
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erikgrinsvall
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Re: The Dubai Air Show Nov 2017. What Major Announcements Do You Expect?

Tue Sep 05, 2017 9:38 am

For sure a massive EK shopping list at either Galeries Lafayette (A350) or Macys (B787)
 
NZ321
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Re: The Dubai Air Show Nov 2017. What Major Announcements Do You Expect?

Tue Sep 05, 2017 9:52 am

Abandoning the 77X is not the topic of this forum discussion, but I sincerely doubt Boeing would relinquish the 350 seat market to the A35K, as that would leave Boeing without a large capacity airplane. A modest adjustment to 787 output is not inconceivable.
 
NZ321
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Re: The Dubai Air Show Nov 2017. What Major Announcements Do You Expect?

Tue Sep 05, 2017 10:02 am

Perhaps a question worth pursuing - perhaps in another forum - would be what future potential customers we see ordering the 777x. Has this been discussed? I know QF and NZ orders are pending but that's not likely to total more than 30 airframes and they are both considering the A350 as well and Boeing needs a good deal more than that. No North American carriers have signed up as of now. IMHO AC would be a likely customer. KE too and likely Air India. AF/KL seems possible but this aircraft seems tailored to longer range missions than they typically fly. Maybe a Chinese order. Thoughts? How many to Boeing need to build to justify going ahead with the programme?
 
mjoelnir
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Re: The Dubai Air Show Nov 2017. What Major Announcements Do You Expect?

Tue Sep 05, 2017 10:29 am

ElroyJetson wrote:
The 78J and 789 effectively bracket the 359. You could use the fleet commonality argument I suppose. Either the 78J and 359 combination works or if EK wants something slightly smaller the 78J and 789. Hopefully whatever is decided the announcement is made at the airshow. This has dragged on for a least a year and half with all kinds of speculation.


The 787-10 together with the 787-9 do not bracket the A359-900. If you need the A350-900 a 787-10 will not do.
 
anshabhi
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Re: The Dubai Air Show Nov 2017. What Major Announcements Do You Expect?

Thu Sep 07, 2017 9:07 am

Now I am expecting some major announcement by Vistara, which will include wide body aircraft as well.
http://m.timesofindia.com/business/indi ... 406265.cms
 
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KarelXWB
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Re: The Dubai Air Show Nov 2017. What Major Announcements Do You Expect?

Thu Sep 07, 2017 9:18 am

anshabhi wrote:
Now I am expecting some major announcement by Vistara, which will include wide body aircraft as well.
http://m.timesofindia.com/business/indi ... 406265.cms


Same "major announcement" was expected at the Paris air show, nothing happened. Perhaps Vistara is looking for media attention?
What we leave behind is not as important as how we've lived.
 
NZ321
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Re: The Dubai Air Show Nov 2017. What Major Announcements Do You Expect?

Thu Sep 07, 2017 11:14 am

mjoelnir wrote:
ElroyJetson wrote:
The 78J and 789 effectively bracket the 359. You could use the fleet commonality argument I suppose. Either the 78J and 359 combination works or if EK wants something slightly smaller the 78J and 789. Hopefully whatever is decided the announcement is made at the airshow. This has dragged on for a least a year and half with all kinds of speculation.


The 787-10 together with the 787-9 do not bracket the A359-900. If you need the A350-900 a 787-10 will not do.


Well, you may say that but SQ found plenty of reasons to order both A359 and 787-10 in large numbers and BA could well follow. We will see.
 
NZ321
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Re: The Dubai Air Show Nov 2017. What Major Announcements Do You Expect?

Thu Sep 07, 2017 11:15 am

KarelXWB wrote:
anshabhi wrote:
Now I am expecting some major announcement by Vistara, which will include wide body aircraft as well.
http://m.timesofindia.com/business/indi ... 406265.cms


Same "major announcement" was expected at the Paris air show, nothing happened. Perhaps Vistara is looking for media attention?


Hope we do see a Visitara order at Dubai. Would love to see them get into long haul and give Air India a run for their money.
 
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KarelXWB
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Re: The Dubai Air Show Nov 2017. What Major Announcements Do You Expect?

Thu Sep 07, 2017 11:27 am

Don't expect an A350/787 order from Emirates:

Emirates A350/787 decision off table
What we leave behind is not as important as how we've lived.
 
Momo1435
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Re: The Dubai Air Show Nov 2017. What Major Announcements Do You Expect?

Thu Sep 07, 2017 11:44 am

I'm a bit surprised nobody said this one earlier:

FlyDubai - 737 MAX-10 order
 
Whalejet
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Re: The Dubai Air Show Nov 2017. What Major Announcements Do You Expect?

Thu Sep 07, 2017 11:55 am

KarelXWB wrote:
Don't expect an A350/787 order from Emirates:

Emirates A350/787 decision off table


777X order should be retained then. I think we might see a few A380+ from EK and potentially a narrowbody order.
 
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scbriml
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Re: The Dubai Air Show Nov 2017. What Major Announcements Do You Expect?

Thu Sep 07, 2017 11:57 am

Whalejet wrote:
I think we might see a few A380+ from EK and potentially a narrowbody order.


Can't see it just now. I think we'll see closer cooperation with FlyDubai rather than EK ordering their own narrowbodies.
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BestWestern
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Re: The Dubai Air Show Nov 2017. What Major Announcements Do You Expect?

Fri Sep 08, 2017 8:41 am

With Emirates scaling back their plans for a 350/787, I wonder what else will be cut back by them.

On the 380...

Reportedly, Tim CLARK has said : “I know they would like us to do something ; at the moment, we are not at that state of readiness. We need copper-bottomed undertakings that they (Airbus) would do everything they need to do to keep the programme going. We don’t want to be left with aircraft that have no value.”
Greetings from Hong Kong.... a subsidiary of China Inc.
 
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seahawk
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Re: The Dubai Air Show Nov 2017. What Major Announcements Do You Expect?

Fri Sep 08, 2017 8:54 am

The big EK 787 Order. Some extra 777X from at least 3 new customers and some more MAX orders.
 
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FlyRow
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Re: The Dubai Air Show Nov 2017. What Major Announcements Do You Expect?

Fri Sep 08, 2017 9:00 am

Can we expect anything that is not "Emirates" ?
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scbriml
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Re: The Dubai Air Show Nov 2017. What Major Announcements Do You Expect?

Fri Sep 08, 2017 9:04 am

seahawk wrote:
The big EK 787 Order.


Do try to keep up. :wink2:

It's already been announced that there will not be any big order from EK. So all that hot air about the 787 being a "done deal" was just that. Hot air.
viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1373197
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
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mjoelnir
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Re: The Dubai Air Show Nov 2017. What Major Announcements Do You Expect?

Fri Sep 08, 2017 9:12 am

NZ321 wrote:
mjoelnir wrote:
ElroyJetson wrote:
The 78J and 789 effectively bracket the 359. You could use the fleet commonality argument I suppose. Either the 78J and 359 combination works or if EK wants something slightly smaller the 78J and 789. Hopefully whatever is decided the announcement is made at the airshow. This has dragged on for a least a year and half with all kinds of speculation.


The 787-10 together with the 787-9 do not bracket the A359-900. If you need the A350-900 a 787-10 will not do.


Well, you may say that but SQ found plenty of reasons to order both A359 and 787-10 in large numbers and BA could well follow. We will see.


Exactly SQ is buying both the 787-10 and the A350-900. I assume for different use.
 
DartHerald
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Re: The Dubai Air Show Nov 2017. What Major Announcements Do You Expect?

Fri Sep 08, 2017 9:17 am

Airbus hasn't announced many A320 sales of late, so perhaps they are saving some announcements for Dubai?
 
mjoelnir
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Re: The Dubai Air Show Nov 2017. What Major Announcements Do You Expect?

Fri Sep 08, 2017 10:05 am

I am afraid that there will not be a lot of orders on the Dubai Air Show. Nothing from the ME3. The other big airlines I would not expect to make a splash at Dubai, rather making anouncements somewhere else, at another time. Like UA with the A350 a few days ago.

I assume we will see a few 777-300ER, still a lot of pressure on Boeing to fill the line. A few A330 even ceo, airlines adding some here and there. We will see narrow body orders, 737, A320 series, E2 and C series, but not huge numbers. Perhaps Airbus has collected some for the show. Boeing made their 737 splash earlier this year.

777-8/9, 787 and A350 will not be sold in numbers on this show.

Perhaps we see a decision on the future of the A380 plus. I still believe if Airbus wants a significant new A380 order from Emirates, they will have to do a neo.
 
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KarelXWB
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Re: The Dubai Air Show Nov 2017. What Major Announcements Do You Expect?

Wed Oct 11, 2017 10:59 am

RL777 wrote:
I'm hopeful Emirates will announce it's decision from the A350/787 RFP, although recent developments have been quiet on that front.


Emirates A350/787 decision off table
What we leave behind is not as important as how we've lived.
 
dubaiamman243
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Re: The Dubai Air Show Nov 2017. What Major Announcements Do You Expect?

Wed Oct 11, 2017 11:31 am

What about Emirates ordering a few B77Ws?
 
dubaiamman243
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Re: The Dubai Air Show Nov 2017. What Major Announcements Do You Expect?

Wed Oct 11, 2017 11:40 am

Emirates is looking for an A380 order to replace older A380s in mid 2020.
http://gulfnews.com/business/aviation/e ... -1.2104106

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