According to a recent Chinese report http://news.carnoc.com/list/416/416167.html , Chinese carriers have almost exhausted their available frequency in the China-India aviation market, which allows up to 42 flights per week from Chinese carriers and 41 have already been used (CA 5 PEK-DEL, 4 PEK-BOM, MU 7 PVG-DEL, 7 KMG-CCU, CZ 14 CAN-DEL, Shandong 2 TAO-KMG-DEL, 2 TNA-KMG-DEL). However, the report said that since Indian carriers still have sufficient available frequency so Indian government does not have much will in renegotiating new bilaterial air service agreement, with the report showing the only Indian-operated flight between the two countries being an AI 4x weekly flight from DEL to PVG (Google say 5x weekly).

With data from 2015 showing that, out of almost a milion visitors between two countries, there are only about 200k travelers from China and more than 700k coming from India, why Indian carrier operate much less routes than Chinese carriers? And the report cited Indian government data from 2016, stating that the air traffic between the two countries are only ~600k in the year, which mean only about 30% travellers fly directly between the two countries given inbound and outbound traffic should be double counted, that mean most of the traffic between the two neighbouring countries are done by international transfer?
With the noticable lack of flights available to Southern India, will Indian carriers open new routes from those points in foreseeable future?
And from the attached graphs in that report citing monthly traffic data of Chinese carriers, it seems like July and Augusta re kind of a low season for traffics between both countries?

India and China are in a border military standoff currently so I doubt we'll see any new frequencies or a new bilateral negotiated anytime in the near future. It's a shame as deepening air links would especially benefit India.

The problem is the market is too fragmented on both sides. There are too many big cities and while traffic may seem large, they are too lil between cities to justify widebodies. This is probably where A321LR and MOM will help.

And yes the relationship between the two countries are at the lowest point ever. That doesn't help.

MIAFLLPBIFlyer wrote:

India and China are in a border military standoff currently so I doubt we'll see any new frequencies or a new bilateral negotiated anytime in the near future. It's a shame as deepening air links would especially benefit India.

India would naturally increase them when it feels like doing so. Currently, all the figures are titled towards China.
Anyways, news is coming in that the Doklam stand off is over. Both India and china will withdraw their troops.

sibibom wrote:

The problem is the market is too fragmented on both sides. There are too many big cities and while traffic may seem large, they are too lil between cities to justify widebodies. This is probably where A321LR and MOM will help.

And yes the relationship between the two countries are at the lowest point ever. That doesn't help.

Basically all those frequencies from KMG and CAN to India are narrowbodies.

If Chinese carriers want to increase service they can introduce wide bodies on some of the existing narrow body service routes. And also code share on the AI flights and may be willing to code share on other Indian carriers who may want to start service to China, all of course subject to approval.

The current standoff between India and China is over and now it is business as usual, but this does not mean that India will increase the bilaterals as it has no incentive to do so.

sibibom wrote:

The problem is the market is too fragmented on both sides. There are too many big cities and while traffic may seem large, they are too lil between cities to justify widebodies. This is probably where A321LR and MOM will help.

And yes the relationship between the two countries are at the lowest point ever. That doesn't help.

You don't need the MOM or even LR to fly between points in China and India. Even including the need to circumvent the Himalayas (e.g. flights between China and India do not fly over the Himalayas even if that is the shortest route, they always have to cross over through Myanmar), a few sample furthest pair would come in at around 5000km (e.g. AMD-PVG would be just above 5000km if diverting over Myanmar, and MAA-PEK would be just about 4700km), so even the current versions of 737s and A320s can do that. The MAX and NEOs will easily cover these.

Diplomatic and military confrontation aside, the relationship between the two had never been strong. Although the two countries are neighbors, they are separated by the tallest and most difficult mountain ranges in the world, hence exchanges between the two countries had never been frequent, even if you started counting from 2000 years ago. There is little cultural connection and there is no population migration between the two historically. VFR traffic between the two countries are next to nothing.

Economically, China is an export oriented country and India is not its primary (or even secondary) market, partially because of heavy protection and regulation in India and partially because of its less advanced economy (compare to other markets). On the other side, India is strong in technology and business service industries. However, generally Indian professionals are not able to serve the Chinese markets primarily because of language issues. You just can't set up a viable offshored call centre in India for a bank in China.

With growing outbound traffic of Chinese tourists, India is also not exactly on top of the list Chinese tourists want to visit. Chinese tourists nowadays like to shop a lot when they go anywhere, and shopping is not something India is famous for.

While there may be room for growth, the size of the traffic between the two will remain small in comparison to the size of the population between the two, and there will not be any need for multiple daily flights between BOM and PVG for the foreseeable future.

Indian carriers really haven't focused much on international growth towards China, Korea, Japan. I'm not sure it really fits into AI's hub and spoke model for instance, while connecting traffic from Europe/Middle East to SE Asia/Australia is more obvious. For Chinese carriers, a layover in CAN makes geographic sense on the way to DEL from SFO or LAX.

Its a missed opportunity for Indian carriers.

Per capita income of the average Indian is less than half that of the average Chinese. As others have already said there isn't a lot of VFR traffic between the two countries to fill the back end of airplanes. Most Indian companies I have worked with are loathe to send their employees in premium cabins, so my conjecture is that there isn't much business traffic in premium cabins to fill the front end of planes either.

China-India is a young market. It was only in 2003 that China Eastern started serving India. Prior to that there was very little or no service on Non-Chinese, Non-Indian carriers using 5th freedom rights.

Like EK, there is another player in this market and it is called SQ. SQ offers a convenient connection for most cities in India excluding DEL and CCU to big cities in China. Also I suspect CX and MH cater to some of this traffic as well.

Chinese imports to India are handled are of low value as compared to other parts of the world and i suspect wont require businessmen travelling by flights.

Indian exports to China have been typically Iron ore which was shut down by the brilliant Supreme court a few years ago

Subu

Like EK, there is another player in this market and it is called SQ. SQ offers a convenient connection for most cities in India excluding DEL and CCU to big cities in China. Also I suspect CX and MH cater to some of this traffic as well.

Chinese imports to India are handled are of low value as compared to other parts of the world and i suspect wont require businessmen travelling by flights.

Indian exports to China have been typically Iron ore which was shut down by the brilliant Supreme court a few years ago

Subu

subramak1 wrote:

Like EK, there is another player in this market and it is called SQ. SQ offers a convenient connection for most cities in India excluding DEL and CCU to big cities in China. Also I suspect CX and MH cater to some of this traffic as well.
Subu

SQ is geographically disadvantaged for this market. For example, Mumbai-Beijing is 2964 mi, but via Singapore it's almost twice as much at 5215 mi.
Twice the distance, twice the segment count, twice the price.

If SQ is getting traffic on routes like this, something is not right.

It seems crazy that these two huge countries that border each other have so little trade and no proper roads between them, plus unecessary artificial restrictions on flights. Surely it would benefit both countries to allow more routes and more airlines.

peterinlisbon wrote:

It seems crazy that these two huge countries that border each other have so little trade and no proper roads between them, plus unecessary artificial restrictions on flights. Surely it would benefit both countries to allow more routes and more airlines.

There are no unnecessary restrictions. Chinese airlines are taking cheap seat Indian pax to North Asia and the US West Coast. They are hard to compete with as they price even their nonstop flights like DEL-PVG really cheaply. Also many Indians like flying CX, Thai and SQ, so they fly to china with one stop. It is what it is. But the Government of India is not to blame. Actually I think it is the Chinese authorities who won't give Indian airlines good slots at PVG. If you ask me China should at least encourage proper nonstop flight timings for business travelers between BOM-PVG/PEK and DEL-PVG/PEK (AI Already flies DEL-PVG). With some Indian films doing well in China, maybe there will be an increased interest in China-India tourism. But who knows. BOM-PVG on 9W is probably the most likely Indian add if it ever happens (timed to connect with LHR, CDG, AMS).

CaliguyNYC wrote:

peterinlisbon wrote:

It seems crazy that these two huge countries that border each other have so little trade and no proper roads between them, plus unecessary artificial restrictions on flights. Surely it would benefit both countries to allow more routes and more airlines.

There are no unnecessary restrictions. Chinese airlines are taking cheap seat Indian pax to North Asia and the US West Coast. They are hard to compete with as they price even their nonstop flights like DEL-PVG really cheaply. Also many Indians like flying CX, Thai and SQ, so they fly to china with one stop. It is what it is. But the Government of India is not to blame. Actually I think it is the Chinese authorities who won't give Indian airlines good slots at PVG. If you ask me China should at least encourage proper nonstop flight timings for business travelers between BOM-PVG/PEK and DEL-PVG/PEK (AI Already flies DEL-PVG). With some Indian films doing well in China, maybe there will be an increased interest in China-India tourism. But who knows. BOM-PVG on 9W is probably the most likely Indian add if it ever happens (timed to connect with LHR, CDG, AMS).

OK, I guess they have their reasons, but the potential for business between these two countries is huge. China has the technology and the expertise to build and manage all kinds of things in a very fast and a efficient way, whilst India has a huge need for new infrastructure. It would be great if they could put aside their differences and get the Chinese to build some things like railways, roads and metro systems in India which are sorely need. Hell, at some of Bombay's train stations there were not even lifts.

Business ties and tourist traffic are not strong, and there are visa restrictions.

For the Chinese carriers, part of the revenue source is the India-US market (see CZ operating twice daily to CAN - this route will be reduced to a fraction it is today if no US traffic is carried). Indian carriers will not funnel this traffic via CAN and PVG as they have no partners on the other side.

Hainan also operated Shenzhen-Kolkata, service failed after just a week 4 x 737-800.

peterinlisbon wrote:

It seems crazy that these two huge countries that border each other have so little trade and no proper roads between them, plus unecessary artificial restrictions on flights. Surely it would benefit both countries to allow more routes and more airlines.

Your post is even more relevant for India and Pakistan, two counties with cultural and language similarities. And the number of flights between their capitals DEL and ISB? A big fat zero.

zakuivcustom wrote:

Like EK, there is another player in this market and it is called SQ. SQ offers a convenient connection for most cities in India excluding DEL and CCU to big cities in China. Also I suspect CX and MH cater to some of this traffic as well.

I would say CX/KA has the bulk of the market. CX/KA fly to DEL, BOM, BLR, HYD, and CCU from HKG. Of course, the tie between HK and India is definitely a lot stronger than Mainland and India (15k Indian in the whole mainland China, 28k Indian expats in HK alone) dating back to colonial days.

And SQ-India market is entirely O&D. There are just, umm, 250k ethnic Indians in Singapore? Tons of secondary cities (or even 3rd tier cities) from SIN also (The like of COK or TRV).

The SQ market to India isn't entire O&D, in fact I'm inclined to say there's a lot more of transfer traffic via SIN to Australia and NZ. In fact, the SQ is the biggest carrier of traffic between India and Oceania, carrying more traffic than AI which operates direct flights to SYD and MEL.

Like Chinese-Indian trade and exchanges, this thread is several decades late. If this thread existed just a few years ago, you will be even more shocked by the almost complete non-existence of direct flights between them!

Relevant article on this: https://centreforaviation.com/insights/ ... ple-249028

CaliguyNYC wrote:

But who knows. BOM-PVG on 9W is probably the most likely Indian add if it ever happens (timed to connect with LHR, CDG, AMS).

9W has flown this route before - PVG was a stop on BOM-SFO using a 77W.

Unfortunately, the slots offered by the Chinese authorities were in the middle of the night so they pulled the plug.

According to report seems like China have already been asking for expansion on the bilateral between China and India? https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/ind ... 160849.cms

I always find it surprising how many governments choke the air service into their countries trying to prop up their local airline at the expense of every other business and the prosperity of the country as a whole. India could do a lot better if it opened up more - both in terms of tourism and international business. They have a very protectionist mentality.

gunnerman wrote:

peterinlisbon wrote:

It seems crazy that these two huge countries that border each other have so little trade and no proper roads between them, plus unecessary artificial restrictions on flights. Surely it would benefit both countries to allow more routes and more airlines.

Your post is even more relevant for India and Pakistan, two counties with cultural and language similarities. And the number of flights between their capitals DEL and ISB? A big fat zero.

Yes, but they hate each other and have been fighting over Kashmir ever since partition. You have to wonder how much more prosperous both countries would be if partition had never happened, because then you would have an India with road and rail links to Europe and it would be bigger, much more powerful country. India is also artificially isolated in the east because there are no roads into Burma and on to the rest of Southeast Asia.

Bilateral trade between India and China is about 75 billion USD with bulk of it as Indian imports. It has rapidly increased from negligible in 80's to where it is now, China is India's one of the largest trading partners and India is No. 11 in bilateral trade and No. 7 in exports. So there is a significant trade volume, however most of it high volume low value trade and does not require much travel. Traffic could improve, but the Chinese authorities have to give decent slots to Indian carriers in PVG and PEK for it grow any further. And bulk of the China - India traffic is handled by HKG.

And regarding opening up, India has reasonably good bilateral air agreements with most of the countries.

The trade numbers are high, could be higher.

However, any areas where India has advantage, the Chinese govt. ensures that trade ties do not expand. It is very unlikely that the Chinese govt will make changes so this may not go anywhere.

Those passing editorials against Indian Govt., India just signed an open free skies agreement with Japan, among several other countries.

zakuivcustom wrote:

chiraagnt wrote:

zakuivcustom wrote:

I would say CX/KA has the bulk of the market. CX/KA fly to DEL, BOM, BLR, HYD, and CCU from HKG. Of course, the tie between HK and India is definitely a lot stronger than Mainland and India (15k Indian in the whole mainland China, 28k Indian expats in HK alone) dating back to colonial days.

And SQ-India market is entirely O&D. There are just, umm, 250k ethnic Indians in Singapore? Tons of secondary cities (or even 3rd tier cities) from SIN also (The like of COK or TRV).

The SQ market to India isn't entire O&D, in fact I'm inclined to say there's a lot more of transfer traffic via SIN to Australia and NZ. In fact, the SQ is the biggest carrier of traffic between India and Oceania, carrying more traffic than AI which operates direct flights to SYD and MEL.

I did forgot about the India-OZ traffic, my mistake (And it's one of SQ bread and butter after Kangaroo routes ).

Either way, though, I highly doubt SQ carry too much India-China traffic, it's just way too far south geographically, nor it's exactly cheap to fly on SQ (So no price advantage).

As others said, HKG is a good connecting point. BKK also isn't that bad and has lots of options.

Internal market in India has also increased a lot in recent years and unfortunately Indian carriers don't have as much financial power as their Chinese counterparts for a quick expansion both internally and outside. Focus is right now on new domestic connections and pressuring the government to build new airports.

This same problem exists not only to India-China routes. Indian carriers presence in other big Asian markets (with a few exceptions) is very limited.

For many options, SIN actually isn't that far away and could be a realistic option... For example, I tried to search for BLR to CAN flight on Google, the shortest flight is to connect at BKK via TG and CZ with flight time 8:55, and then the second option is already connect at SIN with SQ and CZ with the flight time of 9:15 which's only about 20 minutes longer. And then there are also options for KUL and such.

c933103 wrote:

For many options, SIN actually isn't that far away and could be a realistic option... For example, I tried to search for BLR to CAN flight on Google, the shortest flight is to connect at BKK via TG and CZ with flight time 8:55, and then the second option is already connect at SIN with SQ and CZ with the flight time of 9:15 which's only about 20 minutes longer. And then there are also options for KUL and such.

Taking SQ on such a trip is quite similar to going from Vancouver to New York making a connection in Houston. It is somewhat out of the way, but a feasible option that could bubble to the top depending on someone's departure and arrival times preference and the price.

BLR is quite south in India, and CAN is quite south in China. Pretty much everything else like BOM-PVG will have a longer detour taking SQ.

Of the home carriers in both countries, CZ seems to be the best located to flow traffic between secondary cities in the market.