With Prague (PRG) enjoying strong passenger growth (19% year-on-year as of June 2017) and a few recent announcements/launches indicating solid revenue potential (AA from PHL, BA from LCY, QR from DOH), what new long-haul connections are most likely to come next?

Just as a few data points, the airport itself lists the following destinations with the largest unmet need, sorted by potential one-way O&D yield (observations of the local community in brackets):

Hanoi 32 600 (Vietnam Airlines is reportedly close to announcing)
Bangkok 27 800 (Air AsiaX has reported interest in PRG, BUD or WAW)
Tokyo 23 400 (JAL was thought to be interested)
Los Angeles 21 100 (this would follow a VIE and WAW launch but could open the West Coast market to the increasingly affluent Czechs as well as Americans who are now looking for the next big thing after Iceland )
San Francisco 15 700 (growing business links with Czech biotech and software firms, a popular tourist destination with LA)
Chicago 15 600 (the City has lobbied with United)
Hong Kong 14 900 (Cathay is reported to be interested in launching in 2019)
Miami 14 800 (and growing due to access to the Caribbean and growing incomes in CZ)
Colombo 14 400
Washington D.C. 11 500 (a popular destination of Czech/CEE tourists on the East Coast)

In general, I am curious how much the PHL launch will change the calculus but both the U.S. and SE/E Asia still appear to have the potential to grow. PRG is a hub for Czech Airlines (SkyTeam), a slowly growing carrier with solid connectivity in Eastern Europe, and Prague's geographic position in Europe could reduce travel times and cost to many connecting passengers if codeshare agreements can be reached.

Finally, Prague is moving closer to opening a second airport, Vodochody, within 7-10 years - mostly to relieve PRG of low-cost traffic, and could open a parallel runway at PRG in as soon as 2021 (though construction has been delayed multiple times).

It certainly is an airport with great potential and I'm surprised it doesn't handle more passengers than it already does. Even London Luton handles more passengers than Prague and it's much smaller.

Of course it's great to hear that Air Asia X has interest in the region. If they're wise they team up with Wizzair to cover all of Europe. Wizzair has strong bases all over eastern Europe, Prague is one of them. Wizzair is already changing to match the Air Asia business model.

PatrickZ80 wrote:

It certainly is an airport with great potential and I'm surprised it doesn't handle more passengers than it already does. Even London Luton handles more passengers than Prague and it's much smaller.
.

There is a significant difference in GDP and and average wages between Prague and Luton (London.) That is your biggest difference. $$

Chicago has a higher percentage of Eastern European origin, compared to most US cities. But the number of flights to the region from ORD, doesn't match up with what the demographics would indicate. PRG would indeed be a welcome addition to the ORD schedule. And with two US carriers having hubs at ORD, you can feed the Midwest and Western parts of the country.

ORD-PRG could work (if PHL, can ORD should have a chance, at least May-Sep).

I highly doubt that Vietnam Airlines launches HAN-PRG, the demand probably is there but is a tiny route without high premium demand. They first need to serve AMS, MXP/FCO in Europe, LAX/SFO/JFK in North America, DEL/BOM in India, and AKL in New Zealand. What I mean is that they should expand in these markets before a possible PRG service.

Regarding to JAL, I think the same as Vietnam Airlines. JAL is not going to launch PRG before launching MAD, BCN, AMS, MXP, FCO, MUC etc

From the other side, I can see CX launching a possible HKG-PRG, let's say 3-4 weekly on its A359. Chinese airlines have had an increasing presence in PRG, catering Chinese tourists which are a lot in PRG, so this flight could work

Luisvalero wrote:

I highly doubt that Vietnam Airlines launches HAN-PRG, the demand probably is there but is a tiny route without high premium demand. They first need to serve AMS, MXP/FCO in Europe, LAX/SFO/JFK in North America, DEL/BOM in India, and AKL in New Zealand. What I mean is that they should expand in these markets before a possible PRG service.

Regarding to JAL, I think the same as Vietnam Airlines. JAL is not going to launch PRG before launching MAD, BCN, AMS, MXP, FCO, MUC etc

I think you are absolutely correct. This is a common bias, being nearsighted, looking at your own airport out of context, not considering the options airlines have. And I find it weird it's HAN and not SGN, a bigger and richer city, and closer to the beaches.

CSA used to fly between PRG and:

ORD
EWR
JFK
SFO ( I believe it was a 1-stop?)

OK used to fly to LHR... have that up years ago. I guess the slots were more valuable than the flights?

JakubH wrote:

With Prague (PRG) enjoying strong passenger growth (19% year-on-year as of June 2017) and a few recent announcements/launches indicating solid revenue potential (AA from PHL, BA from LCY, QR from DOH), what new long-haul connections are most likely to come next?

I'd say Skyteam. DL to ATL if connections to LatAm were more desired or MU to PVG for Chinese tourists. Is KE still interested in closer ties with CZ? If so, perhaps the CZ long haul fleet could be expanded.

PRG's biggest problem is probably the proximity to the likes of FRA, MUC and VIE, second biggest problem for long haul ops is AMS and CDG

Best strategy for long haul growth in PRG is to build up CZ into something like LO, and avoid the path of smaller alliance partners like RO and MA who end up getting squeezed by their larger partners.

It's definitely popular enough of a target for the big 3 alliances given all the recent price wars there.

Wouldn't PRG be a good long-haul base for DY?

TVNWZ wrote:

PatrickZ80 wrote:

It certainly is an airport with great potential and I'm surprised it doesn't handle more passengers than it already does. Even London Luton handles more passengers than Prague and it's much smaller.
.

There is a significant difference in GDP and and average wages between Prague and Luton (London.) That is your biggest difference. $$

Having said that though, LTN is one of 6 airports for London, whilst PRG is the only international airport for Prague and its cosmopolitan area.

There is also a PRG-ICN flight, served 8 times weekly by Korean Air and Czech Airlines - 4 times weekly by each carrier (Korean Air manages both airlines and owns the A330-300 Czech Airlines uses on the flight, which often has a KE flight attendant onboard). Korean Air uses a Boeing 747-8 on that route. Is it possible that KE might send a second A330 to OK to fly to North America? To JFK, Delta has alternated between the Airbus A330-300 and the Boeing 767-400ER for seasonal service to PRG. Even though it's to Europe, because KE manages OK, could this be added to the DL/KE joint venture? (I should note that the OK A330-300 is KE-configured.)

aemoreira1981 wrote:

There is also a PRG-ICN flight, served 8 times weekly by Korean Air and Czech Airlines - 4 times weekly by each carrier (Korean Air manages both airlines and owns the A330-300 Czech Airlines uses on the flight, which often has a KE flight attendant onboard). Korean Air uses a Boeing 747-8 on that route. Is it possible that KE might send a second A330 to OK to fly to North America? To JFK, Delta has alternated between the Airbus A330-300 and the Boeing 767-400ER for seasonal service to PRG. Even though it's to Europe, because KE manages OK, could this be added to the DL/KE joint venture? (I should note that the OK A330-300 is KE-configured.)

A JV could be a win-win but I understand DL/KE is Transpacific only, right? Having OK join AF/KL could create a natural third hub for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) and allow for solid competition with Star Alliance (OS and LH in VIE and FRA/MUC) in connecting other parts of Europe to key long-haul destinations.

Freshside3 wrote:

Chicago has a higher percentage of Eastern European origin, compared to most US cities. But the number of flights to the region from ORD, doesn't match up with what the demographics would indicate. PRG would indeed be a welcome addition to the ORD schedule. And with two US carriers having hubs at ORD, you can feed the Midwest and Western parts of the country.

Agreed. Though most Europeans prefer not to connect in US due to customs nightmares when connecting - a direct flight to SFO and LAX would make more sense IMHO. I think IAD, BOS and ORD would also be sustainable if good feeder options are available. Too bad DL does not have a hub at ORD but AA/UA should be able to sustain PRG at least seasonally, one would think.

MalevTU134 wrote:

Wouldn't PRG be a good long-haul base for DY?

I believe only if it was ready to aim at primary US destinations for CEE pax: Washington, LAX/SFO, ORD, MIA, NYC/BOS, and if code-share was available for connecting pax at least in PRG.

TVNWZ wrote:

There is a significant difference in GDP and and average wages between Prague and Luton (London.) That is your biggest difference. $$

Per capita GDP in Prague is actually very high: on a regional level, sixth-highest in the EU (after Inner London, Luxembourg, Hamburg, etc.) and at 178% of the EU average, but still much lower than London of course. The catchment area (under 120 minutes) is 8 million.

Luisvalero wrote:

I highly doubt that Vietnam Airlines launches HAN-PRG, the demand probably is there but is a tiny route without high premium demand. They first need to serve AMS, MXP/FCO in Europe, LAX/SFO/JFK in North America, DEL/BOM in India, and AKL in New Zealand. What I mean is that they should expand in these markets before a possible PRG service.
Regarding to JAL, I think the same as Vietnam Airlines. JAL is not going to launch PRG before launching MAD, BCN, AMS, MXP, FCO, MUC etc
From the other side, I can see CX launching a possible HKG-PRG, let's say 3-4 weekly on its A359. Chinese airlines have had an increasing presence in PRG, catering Chinese tourists which are a lot in PRG, so this flight could work

Vietnam makes sense because of a huge Vietnam diaspora in the Czech Republic + tourism, but the business case is perhaps not as strong. CX sounds quite promising on both the business and tourist side.

Asia-Pacific has huge potential to grow: QR has just announced strong demand on the new DOH flight and will upgauge it to an A330 in October. It's also thinking about a second daily.

In my mind, North America is still hugely undeserved and Prague could offer a cost-effective alternative to Western European hubs for the Eastern half of the European continent with hassle-free connectivity (plus it does not suffer from most of the bad weather there).

How strong is the business/tourism potential of Asian cities like Mumbai/Delhi/Banglore, Bangkok, Singapore, Manila, Jakarta, Taipei, and (perhaps much less likely) in Africa, Addis Ababa? Finally, any chances of a Latin American destination? Some of the historical destinations of Czech Airlines were Cairo, Manila, Conakry (!), Mumbai, Jakarta, Baghdad, Montreal, Havana, Male, Dakar, Colombo, Bangkok etc.

Wondering why nor WOW Air neither Icelandair "discovered" Prague as a new destination until now. There are already some charter flights with Smartwings from PRG to KEF during the summer..but I am not sure they connect to one of the Icelandic carrier...

The near future for PRG should be, IMO, to finally get their act together and build the rail link! It's crazy that in a city with otherwise very good public transport, the airport still lacks a rail link...

Prague is moving closer to opening a second airport, Vodochody, within 7-10 years - mostly to relieve PRG of low-cost traffic, and could open a parallel runway at PRG in as soon as 2021

Interesting, I was not aware of the Vodochody plans. The runway & infrastructure is already there, all that would be needed is a pax terminal. There's even a rail link (but with huge detours which would have to be corrected). But why not use Kbely/Letnany as secondary airport?
But if you ask me, I would secure the parallel runway at PRG first, and build out the airport before opening new airports. Having independent runways would allow for better hub operations there. Alternatively, as a relatively easy quick fix, couldn't rwy 12/30 be extended south by some 500m, to remove the intersection with 06/24? That would allow independent ops in certain configs, and would be easy to implement.

the airport itself lists the following destinations with the largest unmet need, sorted by potential one-way O&D yield

None of those routes seem to guarantee the numbers for regular non-stop traffic. Sure, more long-haul is nice to dream about, but realistically PRG should in the short term concentrate on using its geographic position as a Central European hub and gateway between Western and Eastern Europe. And feed those long haul flights - particularly from Asia - with onward connections to the rest of Europe. That in turn will help attract further long-haul later on.

r2rho wrote:

Interesting, I was not aware of the Vodochody plans. The runway & infrastructure is already there, all that would be needed is a pax terminal.

The whole project is a stillborn based on a premise that was relevant maybe 5 and more years ago when LCCs preferred airports in the middle of nowhere.
The reality is that Prague is and always been a provincial backwater and does not need second airport (just as Warsaw didn't need Modlin after all even with much more socially mobile population) for decades to come. If Vienna is able to live with one airport, there is no reason for second airport for Prague.
Besides there is a huge opposition to the project from the surrounding municipalities and regional government who are not happy with having a noisy airport in their backyard just to funnel tourists to Prague.

Kbely is a military airport (and aviaton museum) with insufficient runway and no place to grow.
Letnany is literally next door and a hobby airport for small cessnas and gliders. It has no hard surface runway and just like Kbely too close to the city.

r2rho wrote:

The near future for PRG should be, IMO, to finally get their act together and build the rail link!

Well they are kinda busy reinventing the wheel at the moment... The city of Prague is.

PatrickZ80 wrote:

If they're wise they team up with Wizzair to cover all of Europe. Wizzair has strong bases all over eastern Europe, Prague is one of them. .

W6's strategy with Prague is unclear. W6 serves 6 destinations in Italy neither with daily service, 2 in Israel and one in Iceland and the UK. They have 1 or 2 planes atm based in PRG. To call it a real "base" is a bit of a stretch, imho.
By comparison, EasyJet serves 11 destinations out of PRG without any aircraft being based there.

JakubH wrote:

Having OK join AF/KL could create a natural third hub for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE)

Something like JV with AF had been tried in the 1990s and ended up as a total disaster and government's buyout of AF's stake within a year. I only hope nobody is stupid enough to explore this dead end again.

when LCCs preferred airports in the middle of nowhere

Vodochody is hardly what I would call in the middle of nowhere. It has good road connections and connection potential by rail, and is closer than MUC is to Munich. I think it is correct to keep it as a reserve, even though it won't be needed for a long time IMO.

Kbely is a military airport (and aviaton museum) with insufficient runway and no place to grow.

Kbely has a 2000m runway - enough for short haul, BizAv & GA, which is the function of a reliever airport. But noise would be a problem due to proximity to the city.

If Vienna is able to live with one airport

Well Vienna actually has BTS as well. But I agree that building up PRG should have priority over activating Vodochody for passenger ops.

As a traveler, I agree with a couple of things here: we will likely see more international routes, at least to North America; also that the airport needs rail access from the city! Truthfully, the airport also needs to improve airside terminal space... awaiting and boarding the DL flight to JFK is a very crowded experience without much in the way of amenities.

An update on the targeted routes directly from the airport: growth on Asia traffic has been 31% so far in 2017, leading to more intense efforts to launch Bangkok, Hanoi, Tokyo, Delhi and Taipei; and the airport is also working on extending services to New York and Toronto from seasonal ones to all-year and starting Chicago.

Any thoughts on airlines that would be best suited for these routes? OK is in SkyTeam so Vietnam Airlines for Hanoi, China Airlines for Taipei seem like a natural fit for connecting traffic.

Other destinations will likely have to draw on StarAlliance and OneWorld - how likely are Thai (Bangkok), United (Chicago), JAL or ANA (Tokyo), Air India or Jet Airways (Delhi) and American (Chicago and New York) in being interested (and able) to include PRG in their network?

AA is soon launching Philadelphia so my hunch is they will wait and see if that route works.

I could see DL resuming ATL-PRG sometime in the future, but if DL were to do so, it would most likely be summer seasonal, much like how ATL-LIS is going to be.

The BKK route is more likely to be started by AirAsiaX than Thai

I am surprised Air Canada has not taken advantage of this market opportunity - approx 100,000 Czech tourists travel to Canada+US every year alone (often with less than optimal connections) and Prague, vice-versa, has become a top tier destination in Europe. Sure, business travel may not be the strongest but is not trivial, especially with a good connection to the US West Coast.

Why not a 3x weekly PRG-YVR as well as PRG-YYR year-round on a 787? This could really tap into a perfect market opportunity going beyond seasonal Rouge flights to Toronto.