I can guess the future bookings are dropping significantly right now.

Easyjet have made acquisitions in the past ie Go, GB Airways, TEA. Perhaps they may look at acquiring AB and setting up a base at DUS ad consolidating their position at SXF. Stranger things have happened and it would give them a big leg up in the German market.

Just flew Air Berlin from JFK to TXL last week. Good flight. On time. Clean aircraft. Sat in an XL seat. The XL seats were empty. So was business class. I was worried this was going to happen. At TXL, it's an operational mess which won't be improved by a LH takeover, until the BER airport finally opens. DUS is another story. 11 million catchment area and the wealthiest part of the country.

The new CEO Winkelmann - an ex-LH manager - is so far doing an excellent job as LH's Trojan horse...

As far as competition is concerned: it would in fact create a German domestic monopoly, as AB is the only airline that dares to fly domestic against LH. The situation would be particularly worrying on the core routes between the four corners (MUC, HAM, TXL, STR) - AB is the only thing that keeps LH somewhat honest on them (DB is not a viable competitor).

Also, as has been said, it would create a >50% market share in pretty much every German-speaking major airport.

And although their slots cannot be directly traded for money like at LHR, they do have an indirect value: whoever picks up the scraps of AB will inherit them, which means no new competitor could grab them - that alone has value in itself. AB is sitting on some very desirable peak-hour slots, particularly at MUC, TXL and DUS. If AB were to go down, they would be up for grabs and LCC's would be all over them like madmen, leaving LH's flank exposed to enemy fire. That's why LH will not let AB go down without securing those first. The first step in this strategy was the wet-lease flying for EW. Let's see what Winkelmann has prepared next...

Waterbomber wrote:

I follow Revelation in affirming that this is an unacceptable subsidy, as much as Alitalia's bridge loan is a subsidy.
If as a government, you are loaning a company money with the sole intention of delaying its inevitable death, it's a subsidy.
AB, like AZ, has no tangible assets of meaningful use.

This is highly illegal and should not be allowed.

Also, Lufthansa should not be allowed to bid for any of AB's business. LH already has a monopoly in Germany, the same one that killed AB in the first place.
Let the market correct itself. If there is demand, new carriers will come to fill it.

LH already has too much power in Europe compared to other group airlines, entirely controlling markets in 4 major countries.

More than IAG, Easyjet and Ryanair, I can see Wizzair in the East and Transavia in the West itching to gain market share in Germany.

I agree with this. The company should be liquidated and the slots given to any one but Lufthansa.

To make things more exciting, remember that a few months back we were discussing the fact that AB had filed for a new AOC - called AB aeronautics to englobe the EW flying - but also potentially opening the door to the creation of a "good airline" and a "bad airline"...

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1361701

In the end this was planed a long time ago and imho LH will get the most of AB. One on hand it is bad for competition on the other hand it is probably best for the workforce, as LH might take on many more than FR or U2 would, especially from the maintenance section.

So I'm booked on Nikki in first half September. Am I safe or do I need to make alternate plans? The flight is critical to my itinerary.

[quote="factsonly"]Air Berlin declares 'insolvency' in a peak summer month !!

August sees the highest cash flow...... this clearly indicates its financial position = pretty desperate.



Its more than desperate. Think of each and every seat paid for well in advance. Thats possibly billions sitting in the bank. Its actually very difficult for an airlis to go bankrupt because the amount of cash flooding in for future flights.

seahawk wrote:

In the end this was planed a long time ago and imho LH will get the most of AB. One on hand it is bad for competition on the other hand it is probably best for the workforce, as LH might take on many more than FR or U2 would, especially from the maintenance section.

This... I doubt.
LHT is cutting capacities in HAM and FRA.

Lets hope Air Berlin will sort out its problems and survive.

First thing to do... fire complete Management including Winkelmann

KarelXWB wrote:

Polot wrote:

Super80Fan wrote:

Ugh, wish we had European regulations over here. AA, DL, and UA should've closed up shop a long time ago.

How naive of you to think people would follow regulations and allow large airlines like the US3 or EU3 to fail.

People do follow regulations: the loans itself are legal. Giving money away would be illegal. Chapter 11 is legal as well.

And of course, there are plenty examples of European carriers going bankrupt because governments didn't want to help.

Depends. Government loans may be illegal, if they are too cheap (low interest compared to risk) or not at all expected to be paid back. It was said that the airline gave the government guarantees as slots and other assets, but getting another loan with higher priority in case of liquidation could violate the rights of the other debtors.

Government loans and investments are always legal if a private party commits with similar conditions. Etihad may be considered "private", so after it has pumped so much money, the German government can follow.

In any case I suppose that the German government has consulted lawyers before acting, so quite likely it is formally legal, but it is by far not clear with the scarce information given.

Chemist wrote:

So I'm booked on Nikki in first half September. Am I safe or do I need to make alternate plans? The flight is critical to my itinerary.

Earlier in the thread it was mentioned that Niki isn't affected by this. Furthermore, even if it was, the loan given to AB by the gov't is to continue operations until at least November.

Since no one has asked this question, how did Air Berlin get in this position?

Just boarded an Air Berlin AC. Rudest FAs ever... No hello or welcome to anyone. I understand their situation but it is not our issue.

SCQ83 wrote:

Just boarded an Air Berlin AC. Rudest FAs ever... No hello or welcome to anyone. I understand their situation but it is not our issue.

Lol then you really don't understand their issue

What kind of protections do these employees get in Germany anyway?

So I'm booked on Nikki in first half September. Am I safe or do I need to make alternate plans? The flight is critical to my itinerary.

German elections are on Sept 24th, so yes, you are perfectly safe.
And as others have said, operations are guaranteed until november. Beyond that, ...

So, what does Oneworld do? You can't run every U.S. passenger flying to Europe through LHR or MAD.

Would it make any sense for IAG to bid for some portion of AB? Or would the easier route for Oneworld be to try and convince a carrier in SkyTeam or Star to switch?

william wrote:

Since no one has asked this question, how did Air Berlin get in this position?

Plethora of reasons.
Former owner and ceo, greedy Hunold expanded to fast in the 2000s without digesting. Acquired some competitors, without consolidating fleet with high purchase/leasing rates...
The WFC of 2008/09 gave another hit.
Due to different brands and no consolidation no real concept, greedy to serve all markets (LCC, Charter, Charter, Longhaul etc.)
In 2011 H.Mehdorn was appointed as CEO, but without any concept and strategies he failed also...

Other European LCCs entering the German market doesn't help. Germany is a very competitive Market.

ckfred wrote:

So, what does Oneworld do? You can't run every U.S. passenger flying to Europe through LHR or MAD.

Air Berlin was hardly of any use for OneWorld carriers. No OneWorld carrier even has a long-haul flight from DUS and QR operates the sole OneWorld flight from TXL. (And I'm not sure if they cooperated with AB, given AB's tie-up with EY). AA doesn't serve any of the cities and already uses LHR and MAD as their two hubs for European flights. (It's not very different from DL, with AMS and CDG offering the vast majority of connections).

Within Europe, AB only seemed to really coperate with AY and hardly with BA. They don't even fly into LHR. They did codeshare a lot with AZ, though.


The Topbonus shop is already unavailable. I was looking if I could buy anything from my mere 2.000 miles

Here is a very blurry guesstimation based on airberlin's Q1 financial report:
At the end of each month they have to pay some 33 millions in wages, saleries and associated costs.

Now their income mainly consists of two sources: auxiliary and on-board sales plus wet leasing fees paid by Lufhansa for 38 planes. In the VERY BEST case this will cover the August saleries. There won't be any new ticket sales that would be worth mentioning.
Now all their other costs (leasing, fuel, ATC, airports etc. pp.) had been 8.763 million per day during Q1. 150 millions would cover these expenses for 17.1 days!

Conclusion: although these calculations are based on EXTREMELY blurry assumptions, they are still exact enough to predict that those 150 millions won't last for three months. But rather 3 weeks, give or take a few days.

Lets face it. We have too many airlines in Europe and require market consolidation.

The eventual state should likely be the EU3 group + multiple LCCs and maybe a couple national airlines.

Joost wrote:

ckfred wrote:

So, what does Oneworld do? You can't run every U.S. passenger flying to Europe through LHR or MAD.

Air Berlin was hardly of any use for OneWorld carriers. No OneWorld carrier even has a long-haul flight from DUS and QR operates the sole OneWorld flight from TXL. (And I'm not sure if they cooperated with AB, given AB's tie-up with EY). AA doesn't serve any of the cities and already uses LHR and MAD as their two hubs for European flights. (It's not very different from DL, with AMS and CDG offering the vast majority of connections).

Within Europe, AB only seemed to really coperate with AY and hardly with BA. They don't even fly into LHR. They did codeshare a lot with AZ, though.


The Topbonus shop is already unavailable. I was looking if I could buy anything from my mere 2.000 miles

Actually, AA has flown ORD-DUS. I know that AA flew ORD-DUS during some summers, starting in 2013, while AB flew ORD-TXL. I seem to recall that we were looking at booking a cruise sailing out of Hamburg or Copenhagen, and I got routings that included ORD-LHR on AA/BA, ORD-DUS on AA, ORD-HEL on AA, and ORD-TXL on AB. That would have been summer of 2015.

My point was that AB flying from the U.S. gives more options than AA/BA to LHR and AA/IB to MAD.

DB is not a viable competitor

Where have you been living the past two decades?

Germany's HSR has 80m pax annually. MUC-TXL will be the next domestic route that will impact domestic air travel significant with the opening of the new HSR track at the end of the year.

It saddens me to hear this but it didn't take a clairvoyant to see this coming. I remember seeing the Air Berlin USA ticket counter in Orlando in the late 70's when TWA, Ozark and AB were operating from a temporary hanger/terminal on the west side of MCO before the new terminal complex was built. MCO-BRU-TXL was their only route then on a 707 I think.

In a perfect scenario IAG would take the DUS ops under a Vueling/Level combo and give IAG/oneworld a nice and potentially potent hub in DUS. I'm on the fence with TXL as the situation in Berlin is such a cluster-fudge right now.

Best of luck to AB and all their employees.

Waterbomber wrote:

I follow Revelation in affirming that this is an unacceptable subsidy, as much as Alitalia's bridge loan is a subsidy.
If as a government, you are loaning a company money with the sole intention of delaying its inevitable death, it's a subsidy.
AB, like AZ, has no tangible assets of meaningful use.
This is highly illegal and should not be allowed.

Loaning a failing company money with no end in sight would be an unfair subsidy. Loaning a company in bankruptcy filings money is something I consider ok because (a) the company itself does not see much of that money and (b) there is a set end date where the company either ceases to be in a controlled fashion or it is acquired and operations can continue seamlessly. WIthout that loan, thousands, if not millions of summer vacationers would be left all over the place without even a second's notice. There is no question that AB, in its current state, will not be around at the end of the year. Let the transition happen in an organised way and everyone is happy. AZ on the other hand may continue to live off state money for several years and has no incentive to change sufficiently.

Looks like its time for WN to go on a shopping spree. . .

Also maybe AA could buy a couple of their A332's to bulk up PHL and CLT a bit??

A388 wrote:

I wonder who will take over their long haul flights to the Caribbean. Condor/Thomas Cook is (by far) the largest charter operator from Germany to the Caribbean (the only big one I'm guessing).

A388

EW long haul / Jump comes to mind. Remember that no one has stepped up to claim the A330s up to you. LH Group has emulated AB and DE destinations and has recently expanded in the Caribbean to places like VRA and PUJ. EW long haul could easily add POP or HAV ex-DUS using the same A330 equipment EW already uses (minus the flat beds) out of an airport (DUS) that was specially geared up against AB's A330 long haul ops.

It looks as if nobody read the article in English...

Some interesting excerpts:

"Lufthansa and another unidentified airline are “far advanced” with plans for a partial rescue and a deal could be finalized in coming weeks, Air Berlin and Germany’s economic ministry said in separate statements."

"Lufthansa is keen on acquiring Air Berlin assets including still-solvent Austrian leisure arm Niki, while EasyJet Plc has expressed an interest in other parts of the business, including German short-haul operations"

"Ryanair Holdings Plc said the situation is being “set up” for a takeover by Lufthansa which would breach antitrust rules while pushing up fares for consumers. The Irish carrier said it has lodged complaints with Germany’s Federal Cartel Office and the European Commission."

"Air Berlin has “almost no tangible assets” on its balance sheet, with all of its planes now leased rather than owned, Tony Lebon, a credit analyst at Oddo BHF in Paris, said by phone. “There might still be some value in the slots.”"

The "unidentified airline" has been identified as Easyjet.

Wish the best for the Crews and Staff of AB. I look forward to a good solution and also continued travel from DUS airport. In reading the post and articles, How did they get there?

gregn21 wrote:

Looks like its time for WN to go on a shopping spree. . .

Also maybe AA could buy a couple of their A332's to bulk up PHL and CLT a bit??

Why would WN have any interest in this? Also I don't think AA has any interest in bulking PHL or CLT long haul atm. Even if they did, I'd be shocked if the AB 330s are owned and not leased.

Tkfan wrote:

C010T3 wrote:

Considering how constrained TXL is, I assume that the slots over there also have value.

They have no value. LHR is the only Airport where you can trade slots

My comment was a reference to the reports that AB's slots were used as collateral to the KfW. Somebody mentioned that only the slots of DUS are worth anything, which I countered, since I believe the slots at TXL are also valuable.

How the slots are going to be transformed into cash, that's another story.

anfromme wrote:

C010T3 wrote:

Insolvency transforms the whole situation. It allows the politicians to look past the antitrust laws.
There are a lot of arguments against a full takeover of Air Berlin by Lufthansa, but arguments against unemployment will probably defeat them, if Lufthansa shows interest.

Firstly, LH already has taken interest. They already did a while ago but weren't keen on the debt. Secondly, yes, the German minister for the economy can grant ministerial exceptions to mergers/takeovers that antitrust rulings otherwise forbid. However, these exceptions only apply to German antitrust rules, not EU ones; also, they are subject to being challenged in court.
This is exactly what happened last year when the largest chain of supermarkets in Germany wanted to take over a competitor. We are talking about roughly 15,000 jobs at risk, about twice the number of employees at AB.
The minister's special permission was overruled in court and additional conditions (sale of a certain number of branches to another competitor, among other things) had to be met before the takeover could go ahead.
There was a lot of attention paid to this and the minister got a lot of bad press about it. You can safely assume that any LH-AB deal would be subject to the same scrutiny.

Yes, I'm fully aware that they had shown interest. The "show-interest" part I wanted to refer to was to AB being taken over in its entirety. Depending on the negotiations, if AB is successful negotiating with creditors from this new position of "accept less or you might end up with nothing", Lufthansa could see value in accepting part of the debt, since incorporating the operations of another airline from one day to another is no simple task and could become as costly.

I also recognize that did not adequately express what I meant when I said that "politicians can look past the antitrust laws". I was not inferring that a Ministererlaubnis would be applied in similar fashion as it was done in the case of Kaiser's Tengelmann. It was about being able to defend the sale to Lufthansa before the public eye and opinion. A politician would have difficulty justifying it, if it weren't for the jobs at imminent risk.

It's pretty clear that they are trying to manipulate the public opinion in Germany. Many will accept the idea of sacrifying antitrust regulation in exchange for jobs in the present, since they are not able to understand that a disruption today might bring more jobs in the future than if status quo is maintained. It's just weirdly funny how Lufthansa is acting without any scruples. They don't even bother hiding it.

Thomas Winkelmann's appointment to CEO of Air Berlin was questionable at least. Now having him there during insolvency is an even more of a conflict. What could be seen as collusion before can now transform to something much worse. Any creditor can spot the conflict of interest. Lufthansa is not interested in putting the company back on its feet or recovering the most in order to pay the creditors. Their interest is guaranteeing that the operation stays afloat until they can take over the network themselves.

Tkfan wrote:

Lets hope Air Berlin will sort out its problems and survive.

Impossible. As of today, the fate of Air Berlin is sealed. The few good parts will be absorbed into Eurowings and Easyjet, the rest will die rapidly. Air Berlin as an independent airline is history. Any hope for a future for Air Berlin is a fool's hope.

Again, Air Berlin cannot pay its suppliers in the busiest and most profitable (or in case of AB, least unprofitable) month of the year. They are toast. Most of AB's creditors have long been working on a fully prepaid basis.

Firing management will do what, exactly? They have been through this multiple times now. It changed nothing, simply because Air Berlin is structurally unsustainable as a business. There is nothing management can do to make it profitable again. Even if, the debt load is so astronomical that it would take decades to pay off even if AB worked at normal industry profit margins. Considering AB would have to shrink enormously to even have the slightest chance of survival (again, purely hypothetical as there isn't any chance), they would take half a century just to get out of negative equity. This is how dire the situation is right now.

Everyone working in central services at Air Berlin should go look for a new job asap. The flight crews will likely continue with Eurowings and Easyjet (likely at lower salaries and losing all seniority benefits). But nobody needs the finance, marketing, customer service (what's left of it, anyway) and other people working in the head office & central functions.

Yet another airline that got nothing out of association with Etihad besides financial troubles. Darwin, Alitalia and now Air Berlin.

Something that has confused me is what AB plans to do past November.

On their website they say that through loans and assistance provided by parties including Lufthansa they can continue to operate. First of all, that Lufthansa has any interest in keeping AB alive vs. letting them fall now seems to confirm that this is an orchestrated process where the LH Group will be the benefactor.

Clearly AB won't be here in its current form this time next year, but its interesting that they're still saying that flights can be booked. Hypothetically if I were to book a flight with them for December (after the loan runs out), what would their plan be to honor the booking? Rebook via LH group?

easyJet doing domestic in Germany makes a lot of sense. They have major domestic networks in France, Italy and the UK, so it is already their "speciality"

WROORD wrote:

Yet another airline that got nothing out of association with Etihad besides financial troubles. Darwin, Alitalia and now Air Berlin.

You may add VA to the list soon, things are not looking very bright at their sister airline down in Southern Hemisphere.

So it is down to Easy and LH to share the rest of AB. Will be interesting to see if U2 moves a bit closer to the LH group in the process and might even feed EW long-haul.

[twoid][/twoid]

Cointrin330 wrote:

Just flew Air Berlin from JFK to TXL last week. Good flight. On time. Clean aircraft. Sat in an XL seat. The XL seats were empty. So was business class. I was worried this was going to happen. At TXL, it's an operational mess which won't be improved by a LH takeover, until the BER airport finally opens. DUS is another story. 11 million catchment area and the wealthiest part of the country.

Can you please tell the flight and the date, because from what I have seen recently every flight is going out with Business class more or less full.

Joost wrote:

ckfred wrote:

So, what does Oneworld do? You can't run every U.S. passenger flying to Europe through LHR or MAD.

Air Berlin was hardly of any use for OneWorld carriers. No OneWorld carrier even has a long-haul flight from DUS and QR operates the sole OneWorld flight from TXL. (And I'm not sure if they cooperated with AB, given AB's tie-up with EY). AA doesn't serve any of the cities and already uses LHR and MAD as their two hubs for European flights. (It's not very different from DL, with AMS and CDG offering the vast majority of connections).

Within Europe, AB only seemed to really coperate with AY and hardly with BA. They don't even fly into LHR. They did codeshare a lot with AZ, though.


The Topbonus shop is already unavailable. I was looking if I could buy anything from my mere 2.000 miles

I think it would be easier for OneWorld airlines to expand their own operation to Germany than buy a wounded airline. In any case they can claim concessions from LH group if it acquires AB.
AA can easily start flying to DUS and whereever commercially viable. BA (at least until Brexit), Iberia, Vueling, Level and soon Lingus could start flying domestic lines and even provide limited feed from DUS etc. They do not even need a base, as the lines can be flown as tag-on or triangle routes in the given time frames for the crew etc.

AY may lose most as the demise of AB leaves holes in their network (Stuttgart etc). I do not know if they have enough capacity to expand themselves to fill the holes from Finland or fly intra-German flights. Definitely a German would prefer to fly Finnish airline to British or Spanish, but at the end price matters quite a lot. AY may be more motivated to cooperate with AA on connections than IAG.

YIMBY wrote:

AY may be more motivated to cooperate with AA on connections than IAG.

I don't understand that statement. As AY, BA and IB are all members of the same transatlantic Joint Venture along with AA and share in the net revenue of the JV, why is there a suggestion that any of the members are less motivated to cooperate on connections than others? Indeed, which connections are they not co-operating on at the moment?

YIMBY wrote:

Joost wrote:

ckfred wrote:

So, what does Oneworld do? You can't run every U.S. passenger flying to Europe through LHR or MAD.

AA can easily start flying to DUS and whereever commercially viable. BA (at least until Brexit), Iberia, Vueling, Level and soon Lingus could start flying domestic lines and even provide limited feed from DUS etc. They do not even need a base, as the lines can be flown as tag-on or triangle routes in the given time frames for the crew etc.

I remember AA flying at DUS, I am certain they flew to ORD, and I think they did some seasonal flight into SFO as well. They pulled out, and I'd sooner see UA perform a DUS flight then AA to return. After all, the Star Alliance is working hard on a stable base with ANA/SIA/CAL offering Long Haul flights. Whilst for OneWorld it was only AB/CX offering long haul flights.

Which also leaves me to wonder if CX will be able to sustain the route to DUS.

Rookie87 wrote:

SCQ83 wrote:

Just boarded an Air Berlin AC. Rudest FAs ever... No hello or welcome to anyone. I understand their situation but it is not our issue.

What kind of protections do these employees get in Germany anyway?

Better than in the US anyway. For the time being they just carry on until they are presented new contracts b<y the new owners. Pilots, FAs and all handling personell will not have to worry about losing their Jobs, but they may have to take some income reductions. But since Germany has a very low unemployment rate, they may be on the safe side here as well. Office staff and Marketing departents should start seeking a Job right now, better yesterday.

If the LBA had teminated the AOC yesterday, staff woud still be protected and receive payments for a number of weeks (insolvenvcy severance pay) and there would be a "social plan" worked out with the Receivers. But that is, due to the bridging loan, not the case.

But the bridging loan also helps the passengers. No one is stranded anywhere. Nightmake thinking about the Situation with hardly any ACMI planes available and all flights more or less full. The total costs of this alternate would have cost the Society more than the 150 Mio bridging loan which will be paid back to the KfW by those who pick up the remains of AB

MOL can shout with foam in his mouth as much as he wans, he won't succeed.

One should not forget how the loan for AZ was explained by Italy. They claimed a national interest for AZ to not fall during the high traffic summer tourism season. I guess Germany can claim the same now, trying to avoid AB falling during the summer holiday period.

seahawk wrote:

I agree with this. The company should be liquidated and the slots given to any one but Lufthansa.

Trojan:
Air Berlin has not made a profit since ~2007. i.e. for a decade living on losses and infusions from EK.
How should anybody fix that on short notice ?

Subsidy:
The loan is for an ordered dissolution of Air Berlin and booked against the airlines assets.
This is the main travel season here. Air Berlin has significant market share.
Just folding Air Berlin would cause havoc.

Law here is to protect everybody except the "bankcruptor".
( compare to the US were everybody else but .. has to pay the bill. another broken by design thing.
... and expectably there is a crowd clamoring that everybody else mimic their broken system.)

Quite a lot of history tied up in Air Berlin and LTU, such a shame.

I guess we'll see who picks up what at the fire sale and hope the government loan lasts long enough to ensure an orderly close down of the rest. Very sad for all involved and best of luck to the staff.

Every potential buyer, and that includes FR, has an interest in keeping AB alive and that means, keeping the AOC. The dumbest Thing that could happen is a judge ordering the state towithdraw the loan guarantee. In that case, the bank would have to withdraw the loan and subsequently the LBA would have to withdraw the AOC. That is, BTW, the only way the Government can "close down" AB. Besides that it is in every ones interest to wind down AB in a smooth and orderly Fashion, which is the task of the Management.

One more Thing about AZ. The Italian government has so far pumped 7 illion € into that corpse without the slightest Chance that anything will ever come back. In the case of AB, the KfW Bank will get the Money with interest.
.

lightsaber wrote:

Yea... Peak cash and insolvent... Time to liquidate quickly. Alas, the elections seems to be playing a role.

This begs the question of what happens to that other EY investment...

Lightsaber

Seems like EY's business model has mutated..."A unique partnership of 8 airlines" they say on this still extant web page...unique indeed...the first two on their visual presentation AZ and AB --their flagship partnerships-- are already filing for bankruptcy...says a lot about managing an airline when your shareholders have very deep, willing and eager pockets...

EY is like Bruggisser's SR with money...what a mess...

http://www.etihad.com/en-us/about-us/eap/


Faro

Andy33 wrote:

YIMBY wrote:

AY may be more motivated to cooperate with AA on connections than IAG.

I don't understand that statement. As AY, BA and IB are all members of the same transatlantic Joint Venture along with AA and share in the net revenue of the JV, why is there a suggestion that any of the members are less motivated to cooperate on connections than others? Indeed, which connections are they not co-operating on at the moment?

While they belong to the same alliance and have JV, they are separate entities that compete with each others - and are obliged to compete on intra-European routes - and each of them wants to maximize its profit and secure its survival. IAG has a TATL hub in LHR and a reliever hub in DUB, so any additional ad hoc minihub in DUS would compete with their existing hubs (MAD is mostly for different markets). AY does not have such problem - such minihubs might even give synergy for its network.

I know that this debate may be academic as AY may not have muscles for a fast expansion that is needed now, and if Brexit goes in some direction AY may merge to IAG, but certainly not before everything is clear.

So, what does Oneworld do? You can't run every U.S. passenger flying to Europe through LHR or MAD.

AB is currently pretty irrelevant to oneworld's strategy... if oneworld has a strategy.
Having said that, I agree it would be smart for IAG to establish a central European presence, which is a big hole in their network. Buy up AB for their slots, and fold it into VY - long haul into Level? But U2 seems to have gotten ahead...

DB is not a viable competitor

Where have you been living the past two decades?

Mostly in Germany. On the routes that I have mentioned in my post, DB is not a viable competitor. And those represent the core German domestic air routes - precisely because of no viable train competition.

MUC-TXL will be the next domestic route that will impact domestic air travel significant with the opening of the new HSR track at the end of the year.

Impact, yes, significant, no. It will make a dent for sure, but it won't shift the balance - 4h25 is not fast enough for rail to overtake air. The greatest benefit of this new line will be for people along the route, such as Nürnberg or Leipzig, but less so for traffic between the end points.

What could be seen as collusion before can now transform to something much worse. Any creditor can spot the conflict of interest. Lufthansa is not interested in putting the company back on its feet or recovering the most in order to pay the creditors. Their interest is guaranteeing that the operation stays afloat until they can take over the network themselves.

As I posted earlier, Winkelmann is LH's trojan horse in AB. If he manages to close down AB in a way that LH can easily pick up the pieces and not have them go to competitors, a great position and salary will await him upon his return to mother LH. The conflict of interest is huge, but was blatantly obvious since he was appointed CEO in february.