redwingspilot wrote:

Per company newsletter:

American’s contracts with regional carriers ExpressJet and Trans States to end next year

In an effort to improve consistency for our customers and simplify our regional operation, we have decided not to renew our contracts with ExpressJet and Trans States when they expire in April 2019. The changes will not affect our capacity or service levels in any of our markets, and we will work closely with all impacted partners to ensure smooth and gradual transitions from ExpressJet and Trans States to other existing American Eagle partners. Once the wind-down of these agreements is completed, American will have seven regional partners, down from 10 we had at the beginning of this year.

Per Envoy company newsletter

American just informed us that we can expect another 15 Embraer 145 (E145) aircraft to join the Envoy fleet in the coming months, with the first aircraft arriving after this summer and the remainder transitioning in monthly through early 2019.

News story

American to Cut Ties With 2 Regional Airlines
https://skift.com/2018/05/04/american-a ... reamlines/

=

15 x CR9 for PSA and 15 x E175 for Envoy:

https://airwaysmag.com/airlines/america ... aer-order/

LAXintl wrote:

News story

American to Cut Ties With 2 Regional Airlines
https://skift.com/2018/05/04/american-a ... reamlines/

=

Just the start of regional consolidation, IMO. Not just at American either

Well Trans States is probably not a bad idea based on what happened off of that UA* flt...

So if Envoy is still transferring 145s to Piedmont, why are the TSA 145s going to Envoy next April? Will Piedmont be done taking 145s?

E145 N614AE is en route from ABI to RIC for transfer from Trans States Airlines to Piedmont. 44 x E145 on property now at Piedmont.
https://flightaware.com/live/flight/N614AE

jgcotter wrote:

E145 N614AE is en route from ABI to RIC for transfer from Trans States Airlines to Piedmont. 44 x E145 on property now at Piedmont.
https://flightaware.com/live/flight/N614AE

To my understanding, AA is dumping all CRJ-200 flying yet moving E145 to PI, both a/c with a capacity of 50 pax. High CASM is typically mentioned as a reason for the elimination of the CRJ-200s and 50 seat flying in general, so my question is, are E145s less expensive to operate? I don't think they are more comfortable by any means.

I believe most of the E145s are owned so their capital cost is basically nothing.

To my understanding, AA is dumping all CRJ-200 flying yet moving E145 to PI, both a/c with a capacity of 50 pax. High CASM is typically mentioned as a reason for the elimination of the CRJ-200s and 50 seat flying in general, so my question is, are E145s less expensive to operate? I don't think they are more comfortable by any means.

I think you have the right idea. High CASM definitely is contributing to the shift at AA and all airlines towards larger aircraft, although I don't think the E45 is in particular any more or less expensive than a CRJ-200. No matter who owns the aircraft, they are old enough in age that ownership costs are negligible. The only non-owned ones left are at OO, I think, and I think some of those may be flown pro-rate.

Now that Air Wisconsin flying is gone, there are still CRJ-200s at PSA and Skywest. Some of the OO CRJ-200s are flown to EAS markets so I think some of those jets will be around for awhile, but will be displaced by some of the ExpressJet CRJ-700s coming to fly for American at OO. Some of those CRJ-700s at EV are getting new cabins installed as we speak in the 9/56 config which qualifies it as a small regional jet.

In the order announced last week for the PSA CRJ-900s, it was noted that those larger regional jets would displace some 50-seat jets. I don't know if all of the PSA CR2s will be parked but I imagine as those new jets are delivered they will be.

So here's a quick rundown of what I understand to be the case:
Piedmont is transitioning to be the 50-seat operator with the ex-Envoy E45s. They are positioned to take up more and could probably pretty easily take 140s if necessary, flying regional routes mostly out of PHL but also through CLT.
PSA continues to be a strong regional provider in CLT & PHL and potentially takes on more NE flying in DC and NYC with CRJ equipment.
Envoy continues to be the primary regional lift in DFW and ORD with Embraer equipment: 175s, 145s, and 140s and also expanding in their MIA base and potentially reopening the LAX base.
Wholly-owned regionals will make up the bulk of regional flying and each hub will have a wholly owned regional carrier with the bulk of the flying, optimizing spare availability and redundancy.

Skywest will fly primarily CRJ-700s in PHX LAX, and ORD, as they do today, potentially with some CRJ-200s remaining in ORD. I almost guarantee the EV CR7s end up at OO the same way the EV CR2s did.
Mesa is having staffing issues with the -900s in PHX and DFW but assuming they can continue to provide lift they will be part of the equation.
Republic has the bulk of E75 flying in the east coast, subject to staffing availability.
Compass - I think like many others that when their contact expires in 2020, those jets will go to Envoy.

3 owned + 3 non-owned seems like a good mix to me.

mhkansan wrote:

To my understanding, AA is dumping all CRJ-200 flying yet moving E145 to PI, both a/c with a capacity of 50 pax. High CASM is typically mentioned as a reason for the elimination of the CRJ-200s and 50 seat flying in general, so my question is, are E145s less expensive to operate? I don't think they are more comfortable by any means.

I think you have the right idea. High CASM definitely is contributing to the shift at AA and all airlines towards larger aircraft, although I don't think the E45 is in particular any more or less expensive than a CRJ-200. No matter who owns the aircraft, they are old enough in age that ownership costs are negligible. The only non-owned ones left are at OO, I think, and I think some of those may be flown pro-rate.

Now that Air Wisconsin flying is gone, there are still CRJ-200s at PSA and Skywest. Some of the OO CRJ-200s are flown to EAS markets so I think some of those jets will be around for awhile, but will be displaced by some of the ExpressJet CRJ-700s coming to fly for American at OO. Some of those CRJ-700s at EV are getting new cabins installed as we speak in the 9/56 config which qualifies it as a small regional jet.

In the order announced last week for the PSA CRJ-900s, it was noted that those larger regional jets would displace some 50-seat jets. I don't know if all of the PSA CR2s will be parked but I imagine as those new jets are delivered they will be.

So here's a quick rundown of what I understand to be the case:
Piedmont is transitioning to be the 50-seat operator with the ex-Envoy E45s. They are positioned to take up more and could probably pretty easily take 140s if necessary, flying regional routes mostly out of PHL but also through CLT.
PSA continues to be a strong regional provider in CLT & PHL and potentially takes on more NE flying in DC and NYC with CRJ equipment.
Envoy continues to be the primary regional lift in DFW and ORD with Embraer equipment: 175s, 145s, and 140s and also expanding in their MIA base and potentially reopening the LAX base.
Wholly-owned regionals will make up the bulk of regional flying and each hub will have a wholly owned regional carrier with the bulk of the flying, optimizing spare availability and redundancy.

Skywest will fly primarily CRJ-700s in PHX LAX, and ORD, as they do today, potentially with some CRJ-200s remaining in ORD. I almost guarantee the EV CR7s end up at OO the same way the EV CR2s did.
Mesa is having staffing issues with the -900s in PHX and DFW but assuming they can continue to provide lift they will be part of the equation.
Republic has the bulk of E75 flying in the east coast, subject to staffing availability.
Compass - I think like many others that when their contact expires in 2020, those jets will go to Envoy.

3 owned + 3 non-owned seems like a good mix to me.

Excellent summary, thank you

From a performance and runway perspective, is there a preference at AA of CR2s v E-145s?

Republic is now partially owned by AA. So Technically its 3 wholly owned, 1 partially owned and 2 non-owned.

mhkansan wrote:

Now that Air Wisconsin flying is gone, there are still CRJ-200s at PSA and Skywest. Some of the OO CRJ-200s are flown to EAS markets so I think some of those jets will be around for awhile, but will be displaced by some of the ExpressJet CRJ-700s coming to fly for American at OO. Some of those CRJ-700s at EV are getting new cabins installed as we speak in the 9/56 config which qualifies it as a small regional jet.

The majority of the EV birds are already in the 9F/56Y config and my guess is they will temporarily be used to backfill for when the existing 6F/64Y birds go in for re-config (or those 6F/64Y birds will go the way of the dodo).

So here's a quick rundown of what I understand to be the case:
Piedmont is transitioning to be the 50-seat operator with the ex-Envoy E45s. They are positioned to take up more and could probably pretty easily take 140s if necessary, flying regional routes mostly out of PHL but also through CLT.
PSA continues to be a strong regional provider in CLT & PHL and potentially takes on more NE flying in DC and NYC with CRJ equipment.
Envoy continues to be the primary regional lift in DFW and ORD with Embraer equipment: 175s, 145s, and 140s and also expanding in their MIA base and potentially reopening the LAX base.
Wholly-owned regionals will make up the bulk of regional flying and each hub will have a wholly owned regional carrier with the bulk of the flying, optimizing spare availability and redundancy.

Skywest will fly primarily CRJ-700s in PHX LAX, and ORD, as they do today, potentially with some CRJ-200s remaining in ORD. I almost guarantee the EV CR7s end up at OO the same way the EV CR2s did.
Mesa is having staffing issues with the -900s in PHX and DFW but assuming they can continue to provide lift they will be part of the equation.
Republic has the bulk of E75 flying in the east coast, subject to staffing availability.
Compass - I think like many others that when their contact expires in 2020, those jets will go to Envoy.

The only part I think will change is OO being in DFW rather than ORD. The plan before was for PSA to open a crew base in ORD and staff the CR7s out of there. With the additional 900s for back east along with eventually getting all of the MQ 700s over there, I think OO will go back to its better performing side of the country as well as a new base in DFW to support the new CR7s. Its a key point to note, LAX & PHX are the two hubs without a wholly-owned and with Mesa being unable to support DFW, there isn't enough Envoy to go around to open an LAX base currently. Once the Compass contract is up, I think those birds may come back to Envoy but being able to flow those 20 planes though ORD and DFW makes a crew base almost unnecessary as the crews can change out in outstations. I'm also not sold on PSA retiring all of their CR2s as the fleet plan calls for 35 to remain which is more than just OO.

JFK/LGA - YX E75 & PT ER4 (MQ LGA base is only temporary)
PHL - YX E75, OH CR7/CR9, PT ER4
DCA, YX E75, OH CR7/CR9, PT ER4
CLT YX E75, OH CR2/CR7/CR9, PT ER4
MIA YX E75, MQ E75/ER4
DFW MQ E75/ER4, YV CR9, OO CR7
ORD MQ E75/ER4, OH CR7/CR9, OO CR2 (pro-rate)
PHX OO CR7/CR2, YV CR9
LAX OO CR7, CP/MQ E75

Robert Isom recently said the fleet plan is as follows;

PSA 150 airplanes
PDT 56 airplanes
ENY 200 airplanes

At the end of 2019 Envoy will be at 180 airplanes. 20 more airframes seems to hint than Compass is the next one out, especially based on his quote of “So we've got a great set of wholly owneds. I would really like to see us over the long run then combine that with a few carriers of critical mass, that meet standards in terms of quality.."

mhkansan wrote:

Compass - I think like many others that when their contact expires in 2020, those jets will go to Envoy.

.

With Envoys staffing issues? I'll believe it when I see it!!

as739x wrote:

mhkansan wrote:

Compass - I think like many others that when their contract expires in 2020, those jets will go to Envoy.

.

With Envoys staffing issues? I'll believe it when I see it!!

Envoy isn't having any staffing issues. There was potential for it, but it has been avoided. I am looking at the coverage now. The mothership adjusted the flying and Envoy is fine. With the new LOA that was agreed to last week, there will be captains sooner at Envoy (now 950 hours), it is mandatory to upgrade to flow, if you take LGA you get three months of business passes and unlimited commuter hotels, and captain pay from the moment of it being awarded. Envoy will handle whatever is thrown at them. Those 175's never should have been at Compass and were nothing but a message that was sent to the Eagle pilot group. Isom said they want regional partners of "sizeable mass" and that is not Compass for AA. 20 airplanes is not sizeable mass.

airtran737 wrote:

The mothership

I got a good chuckle when I read this

airtran737 wrote:

as739x wrote:

mhkansan wrote:

With Envoys staffing issues? I'll believe it when I see it!!

Envoy isn't having any staffing issues. There was potential for it, but it has been avoided. I am looking at the coverage now. The mothership adjusted the flying and Envoy is fine. With the new LOA that was agreed to last week, there will be captains sooner at Envoy (now 950 hours), it is mandatory to upgrade to flow, if you take LGA you get three months of business passes and unlimited commuter hotels, and captain pay from the moment of it being awarded. Envoy will handle whatever is thrown at them. Those 175's never should have been at Compass and were nothing but a message that was sent to the Eagle pilot group. Isom said they want regional partners of "sizeable mass" and that is not Compass for AA. 20 airplanes is not sizeable mass.

The 20 planes at compass were not ordered for Envoy. When AA placed the order they had no clue who was going to operate them, they could have come to republic if we weren't in our own staffing crisis at the time, after all we were the first Eagle 175 operator. Go read any news article on the order and you will see that. If compass is bought by Republic which is still rumored but having hit some snags, those planes will still be at a company with critical mass.

The only Airline that is forcing First officers or new hires that have the 1000 hours to upgrade is... you guessed it... Envoy and PSA (somewhat). If your too naive to see that is a staffing issue, well then enjoy this summer when you guys go into meltdown mode. Even with everything being offered, I would not lateral to Envoy, EVER.

flightsimer wrote:

airtran737 wrote:

as739x wrote:

With Envoys staffing issues? I'll believe it when I see it!!

Envoy isn't having any staffing issues. There was potential for it, but it has been avoided. I am looking at the coverage now. The mothership adjusted the flying and Envoy is fine. With the new LOA that was agreed to last week, there will be captains sooner at Envoy (now 950 hours), it is mandatory to upgrade to flow, if you take LGA you get three months of business passes and unlimited commuter hotels, and captain pay from the moment of it being awarded. Envoy will handle whatever is thrown at them. Those 175's never should have been at Compass and were nothing but a message that was sent to the Eagle pilot group. Isom said they want regional partners of "sizeable mass" and that is not Compass for AA. 20 airplanes is not sizeable mass.

The 20 planes at compass were not ordered for Envoy. When AA placed the order they had no clue who was going to operate them, they could have come to republic if we weren't in our own staffing crisis at the time, after all we were the first Eagle 175 operator. Go read any news article on the order and you will see that. If compass is bought by Republic which is still rumored but having hit some snags, those planes will still be at a company with critical mass.

The only Airline that is forcing First officers or new hires that have the 1000 hours to upgrade is... you guessed it... Envoy and PSA (somewhat). If your too naive to see that is a staffing issue, well then enjoy this summer when you guys go into meltdown mode. Even with everything being offered, I would not lateral to Envoy, EVER.

Those airplanes were intended for MQ and were taken away because the pilots wouldn’t give into the demands by management. That’s an absolute fact. As for me, I don’t want to see them at Envoy. Every additional plane we have to crew is a reason for management to try and say that they can meter flow. As for Republic buying TSH, I’m sure it’s happening, and it goes to show just how BS their bankruptcy was and that needing to simply their fleet was bull. I suppose if you want to get technical, Republic isn’t buying anything, AA, DL, UA, and Embraer would be doing the buying.

E145 N907AE is en route from MQT to RIC for transfer from Envoy to Piedmont. 45 x E145 on property now at Piedmont.
https://flightaware.com/live/flight/N907AE

E145 N647AE is en route from MQT to RIC for transfer from Envoy to Piedmont. 46 x E145 on property now at Piedmont.
https://flightaware.com/live/flight/N647AE

CR7 N508AE is en route from MQT to DAY for transfer from Envoy to PSA. 40 x CR7 on property now at PSA.
https://flightaware.com/live/flight/N508AE

jgcotter wrote:

CR7 N508AE is en route from MQT to DAY for transfer from Envoy to PSA. 40 x CR7 on property now at PSA.
https://flightaware.com/live/flight/N508AE

How many left to go? Is all ORD flying going to the 175 at MQ?

FACT: Compass’ contract ends in 2025. American won’t pay off the contract.

Piedmont DH3 N326EN is en route from SBY to YQA for return to lessor. 5 x active DH3 on property now at Piedmont.
https://flightaware.com/live/flight/N326EN

caflyboy wrote:

Republic is now partially owned by AA. So Technically its 3 wholly owned, 1 partially owned and 2 non-owned.

Please enlighten me. What does this mean?

cxb744 wrote:

FACT: Compass’ contract ends in 2025. American won’t pay off the contract.

Sure, the contract might go to 2025, but American won't have to pay the contract off. Compass will breach their end of the contract long before then.

DiamondFlyer wrote:

cxb744 wrote:

FACT: Compass’ contract ends in 2025. American won’t pay off the contract.

Sure, the contract might go to 2025, but American won't have to pay the contract off. Compass will breach their end of the contract long before then.

Do you know what types of provisions are usually put in regional flying contracts which if breached could lead to termination of the contract? I'm guessing staffing would be one if Compass can't get pilots but need some enlightenment!

Also, will the EV planes coming on at OO be in addition to current fleet numbers or back filling the loss of the Air Wisconsin 200's?

OKCDCA wrote:

DiamondFlyer wrote:

cxb744 wrote:

FACT: Compass’ contract ends in 2025. American won’t pay off the contract.

Sure, the contract might go to 2025, but American won't have to pay the contract off. Compass will breach their end of the contract long before then.

Do you know what types of provisions are usually put in regional flying contracts which if breached could lead to termination of the contract? I'm guessing staffing would be one if Compass can't get pilots but need some enlightenment!

Also, will the EV planes coming on at OO be in addition to current fleet numbers or back filling the loss of the Air Wisconsin 200's?

There are a lot of provisions about failing to meet performance targets, whether it be controllable completion factor, D0, operational solvency (meaning there are enough operational planes available to cover the schedule for a set percentage of the time), or crew availability. There are also soft metrics like cabin appearance and customer satisfaction/complaints. I've never see contracts revoked though for failure to meet soft targets or controllable completion factor, usually only plane/crew availability.

The EV planes are a net zero gain, they are just going from one side of the certificate to the other. There are 20+ additional CR7s available that are coming off the DL contract in ATL that haven't been accounted for that would/could be growth but that would require AA to retire some other CR2s/ER4s in order to make room in scope.

washingtonflyer wrote:

From a performance and runway perspective, is there a preference at AA of CR2s v E-145s?

The CR2 can do HVN-PHL, the E-145 cannot.

NZ321 wrote:

caflyboy wrote:

Republic is now partially owned by AA. So Technically its 3 wholly owned, 1 partially owned and 2 non-owned.

Please enlighten me. What does this mean?

Delta, United, and American all own a piece of Republic.

Based on aircraft movement, I’m now showing 50 x E140 returned to active status with Envoy, or in refurb at ABI. I know the investor guidance said 49 returning.

ABI 2
N804AE Legacy
N814AE Legacy

DFW 18
N801AE Legacy
N803AE Legacy
N806AE Painted
N812AE Legacy
N813AE Legacy
N818AE Painted
N819AE Painted
N821AE Legacy
N822AE Painted
N823AE Painted
N825AE Painted
N830AE Painted
N837AE Painted
N843AE Legacy
N844AE Painted
N848AE Painted
N850AE Painted
N851AE Painted

LGA 30
N800AE Painted
N807AE Painted
N808AE Painted
N809AE Painted
N810AE Legacy
N815AE Legacy
N816AE Legacy
N817AE Painted
N820AE Painted
N824AE Legacy
N826AE Painted
N827AE Painted
N831AE Painted
N833AE Painted
N834AE Painted
N835AE Painted
N836AE Painted
N838AE Painted
N840AE Painted
N841AE Painted
N845AE Painted
N846AE Painted
N849AE Painted
N852AE Painted
N853AE Legacy
N854AE Painted
N855AE Painted
N856AE Painted
N857AE Painted
N858AE Painted

Based on aircraft movement, I’m now showing 50 x E140 returned to active status with Envoy, or in refurb at ABI. I know the investor guidance said 49 returning.

ABI 2
N804AE Legacy
N814AE Legacy

DFW 18
N801AE Legacy
N803AE Legacy
N806AE Painted
N812AE Legacy
N813AE Legacy
N818AE Painted
N819AE Painted
N821AE Legacy
N822AE Painted
N823AE Painted
N825AE Painted
N830AE Painted
N837AE Painted
N843AE Legacy
N844AE Painted
N848AE Painted
N850AE Painted
N851AE Painted

LGA 30
N800AE Painted
N807AE Painted
N808AE Painted
N809AE Painted
N810AE Legacy
N815AE Legacy
N816AE Legacy
N817AE Painted
N820AE Painted
N824AE Legacy
N826AE Painted
N827AE Painted
N831AE Painted
N833AE Painted
N834AE Painted
N835AE Painted
N836AE Painted
N838AE Painted
N840AE Painted
N841AE Painted
N845AE Painted
N846AE Painted
N849AE Painted
N852AE Painted
N853AE Legacy
N854AE Painted
N855AE Painted
N856AE Painted
N857AE Painted
N858AE Painted

jgcotter wrote:

Piedmont DH3 N326EN is en route from SBY to YQA for return to lessor. 5 x active DH3 on property now at Piedmont.
https://flightaware.com/live/flight/N326EN

n336en has been at sby since Friday. If it is retired as well then there are only 4 left.

aaflyer222 wrote:

jgcotter wrote:

Piedmont DH3 N326EN is en route from SBY to YQA for return to lessor. 5 x active DH3 on property now at Piedmont.
https://flightaware.com/live/flight/N326EN

n336en has been at sby since Friday. If it is retired as well then there are only 4 left.

Saw that, thanks. Probably a spare at this point in the draw down. A little over two weeks left for the mighty DH3 at Piedmont if they stick to the schedule.

flyguy84 wrote:

NZ321 wrote:

caflyboy wrote:

Republic is now partially owned by AA. So Technically its 3 wholly owned, 1 partially owned and 2 non-owned.

Please enlighten me. What does this mean?

Delta, United, and American all own a piece of Republic.

I have read in the past of AA owning some of Republic but nothing about DL & UA. Everything is hearsay since Republic is not public at the moment.

INFINITI329 wrote:

flyguy84 wrote:

NZ321 wrote:

Please enlighten me. What does this mean?

Delta, United, and American all own a piece of Republic.

I have read in the past of AA owning some of Republic but nothing about DL & UA. Everything is hearsay since Republic is not public at the moment.

Its not "hearsay" - go look at the bankruptcy reorganization of Republic, which is public. Moreover, the airlines report their ownership of Republic, publicly.

P.S., thats the wrong use of "hearsay".

Now that the dust has settled somewhat, it appears that PSA has taken over HVN service out of PHL 3 x daily with a CR2, and HXD will switch to Republic 3 x daily on an E75 out of CLT on July 4th. The last Piedmont DH3 to HXD is currently scheduled for July 3rd.

INFINITI329 wrote:

flyguy84 wrote:

NZ321 wrote:

Please enlighten me. What does this mean?

Delta, United, and American all own a piece of Republic.

I have read in the past of AA owning some of Republic but nothing about DL & UA. Everything is hearsay since Republic is not public at the moment.

Collectively AA, DL and UA own roughly 65% of Republic, with AA have the largest share in the high 20% range, followed by UA and then DL.

jgcotter wrote:

N806AE Painted

N806AE still has “Legacy” paint. Photographed it June 5th.
http://flic.kr/p/259XHq1

N622AE transferred from Trans States to Envoy ABI-DFW 6/26/18 after it’s heavy check.

alasizon wrote:

Anyone know why the Trans States birds are being transferred to Envoy as opposed to just going to Piedmont? Seems like it would be easier to just do one fleet transaction and indoc as opposed to two.

Piedmont doesn't have the mx resources right now. Envoy will clean them up, do all the heavy mx and standardize them.

Anyone know why the Trans States birds are being transferred to Envoy as opposed to just going to Piedmont? Seems like it would be easier to just do one fleet transaction and indoc as opposed to two.

Envoy E140 N804AE is en route from ABI to DFW for re-entry into active service. 49 x E140 active now at Envoy.
https://flightaware.com/live/flight/N804AE

Envoy E140 N804AE is en route from ABI to DFW for re-entry into active service. 49 x E140 active now at Envoy.
https://flightaware.com/live/flight/N804AE

Saw my first AE CRJ-900 at ORD the other day. Thought these didn't fly into ORD. Has AE started to shift some CRJ9s to Chicago finally?

ILS28ORD wrote:

Saw my first AE CRJ-900 at ORD the other day. Thought these didn't fly into ORD. Has AE started to shift some CRJ9s to Chicago finally?

There are currently not any CR9s scheduled for ORD. If there was one there, either PSA ran a sub for an OOS CR7 or it was a diversion from a Midwest city,

alasizon wrote:

The majority of the EV birds are already in the 9F/56Y config

ALL EV birds are in the 9F/56Y config.

And if I had to guess what things will look like in a year these would be my predictions:

Compass will indeed lose the 175s to Envoy - it's already rumored and expected. But, rather than add an MQ base to LAX, watch for YV to shift CR9s there as they get bumped out of DFW and consolidate to LAX with about 20 planes, to backfill the 175, and the rest in PHX.

DFW would then be a clean MQ 175 / 145 and OO 700 base

That would indeed make the 7 carriers predicted - with the end of Compass for Eagle, and put Mesa on notice that they are next ... or else. From there, it's a race, can PSA grow into either ORD or MIA fast enough to free Envoy to go West?

eugdjinn wrote:

alasizon wrote:

The majority of the EV birds are already in the 9F/56Y config

ALL EV birds are in the 9F/56Y config.

And if I had to guess what things will look like in a year these would be my predictions:

Compass will indeed lose the 175s to Envoy - it's already rumored and expected. But, rather than add an MQ base to LAX, watch for YV to shift CR9s there as they get bumped out of DFW and consolidate to LAX with about 20 planes, to backfill the 175, and the rest in PHX.

DFW would then be a clean MQ 175 / 145 and OO 700 base

That would indeed make the 7 carriers predicted - with the end of Compass for Eagle, and put Mesa on notice that they are next ... or else. From there, it's a race, can PSA grow into either ORD or MIA fast enough to free Envoy to go West?

Interesting observation. I agree that there's a high likelihood of both Compass losing their birds to Envoy and Mesa moving to LAX. But I'm not sure Mesa will lose their flying or "free" Envoy to move West. I'd like to see PSA grow to backfill the lost TSA flying in DCA and maybe even some Envoy flying at LGA/JFK. But PSA displacing Envoy at MIA or especially ORD does not make sense. Envoy has decades of history and thousands of employees who live and work in Chicago. Changing that would be counterproductive.

And while Mesa may not have a sterling reputation in the business, they are a reliable operator and are able to do so cheaply do to their payscales.