ADrum23
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Re: What's next for Spirit?

Sat Nov 04, 2017 1:21 am

flymco753 wrote:
ADrum23 wrote:
flymco753 wrote:
If it’s 4 new cities I can put my bets on AUS, RDU, IND and STL.


Can I ask why RDU over BNA? While I think NK will come to them eventually, I would be somewhat baffled if they got NK before BNA. RDU already has decent ULCC operations, while BNA, aside for some token F9 operations, is lacking in the ULCC department. Also, all of those airports minus STL have G4 as well, while BNA does not. BNA would be among the most next logical adds for NK, considering lack of competition among ULCC's and its status as the fastest growing airport of its size.
It is the next logical add, but is WN going to put too much fare pressure on Spirit to potentially gain a lesser profit than say RDU or AUS? AUS/RDU-DTW has no LCC competition, I wanted to pick on that one because DTW seems to be successful for Spirit. I do want to see BNA over all though, that would be an absolute priority for me if I was a Network Analyst.


By that logic, STL shouldn't be added then, as WN could put more pressure there (and bigger as its operations at STL are larger than BNA).
 
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flymco753
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Re: What's next for Spirit?

Sat Nov 04, 2017 1:23 am

ROCDLFAN wrote:
ROC will be announced within the next six months, id absolutely bet on it. MCAA just had their fourth meeting with NK finish recently, and whether they should or shouldn't they will offer incentives. Also, G4 and AC just moved counter spaces at ROC due to the renovation, but left the perfect spot for their counter to go between G4 and AA. The county is also ending its temp gate lease on B4 with DL, which would only be done if another airline offered to actually lease it. All of this is public information on the airports website.

Personally I've got nothing against NK and wouldn't mind the extra competition, but WN and G4 have a fairly good stake in Florida From ROC. But we'll see.
Some airports meet with airlines, sometimes more than 10 times, there's a right time to start certain flights, and from what I understand they want to continue expansion into medium sized markets of the likes of FL (IND, MKE, STL, etc.) I can't see some markets for NK though, CMH, CVG, DAY, FNT, all come to mind.

In the next 3 years, I domestically expect (in no particular order); IND, STL, RDU, AUS, and BNA.

I would give IND; BWI, LAX, MCO, TPA, RSW, FLL, LAS, MYR, MSY, IAH, and DFW.
STL; BWI, MCO, TPA, LAX, RSW, FLL, LAS, IAH, DFW, ATL, MYR, and DTW.
RDU; BOS, ATL, DTW, ORD, MSP, MCO, TPA, RSW, FLL, DFW, MSY, IAH, and LAS.
AUS; BOS, BWI, EWR, MYR, MCO, FLL, MSP, ORD, LAS, and LAX.
BNA; BOS, EWR, MYR, MCO, FLL, TPA, DTW, ORD, and DFW.

This is all speculation, or a wish list if you will.
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Jshank83
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Re: What's next for Spirit?

Sat Nov 04, 2017 2:37 am

flymco753 wrote:
STL; BWI, MCO, TPA, LAX, RSW, FLL, LAS, IAH, DFW, ATL, MYR, and DTW.


My 2 cents on these.
BWI- only competes with WN (not counting DC airports) might work. Not sure on traffic. WN would do all they could to probably push them off.
MCO- lots of competition. G4 (varies between 2 and 5x weekly), F9 Daily (sometimes more), WN (4x daily usually), DL (once weekly in summer). I think they probably have to try it but its going to be rough sledding.
TPA- WN (twice daily), G4 (varies between 2 and 5x weekly), F9 just picked it up twice weekly in winter. Might do okay. Less competition than MCO but also not as much traffic.
LAX- WN (2 or 3x daily) AA(3x daily) This one might work. No one running ULCC on it.
RSW - WN (1 or 2x daily) not much competition. Not sure how much demand though. ULCC might stimulate it. G4 does run to punta gorda a few days a week
IAH- WN and United. no clue on this one
DFW- WN and AA again no clue.
ATL- WN and DL. F9 ran it the last 2 years but looks to be dropping it this summer. I think they did decent so I would think Spirit could pickup where they left off. Fares are already pretty low without them though.
MYR - Just G4 2x weekly seasonal. Probably wouldn't do too bad.
DTW - WN and DL. no clue

I don't have any sense of how it would do on non "beach" routes. F9 to ATL is about the only ULCC we have ever had on a non beach/PHX/DEN destination. G4 just picked up AZA twice weekly but I would think Spirit might be able to make PHX one work also, at least winter seasonally.
 
ctrabs0114
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Re: What's next for Spirit?

Sat Nov 04, 2017 3:03 am

Jshank83 wrote:
flymco753 wrote:
STL; BWI, MCO, TPA, LAX, RSW, FLL, LAS, IAH, DFW, ATL, MYR, and DTW.


My 2 cents on these.
BWI- only competes with WN (not counting DC airports) might work. Not sure on traffic. WN would do all they could to probably push them off.
MCO- lots of competition. G4 (varies between 2 and 5x weekly), F9 Daily (sometimes more), WN (4x daily usually), DL (once weekly in summer). I think they probably have to try it but its going to be rough sledding.
TPA- WN (twice daily), G4 (varies between 2 and 5x weekly), F9 just picked it up twice weekly in winter. Might do okay. Less competition than MCO but also not as much traffic.
LAX- WN (2 or 3x daily) AA(3x daily) This one might work. No one running ULCC on it.
RSW - WN (1 or 2x daily) not much competition. Not sure how much demand though. ULCC might stimulate it. G4 does run to punta gorda a few days a week
IAH- WN and United. no clue on this one
DFW- WN and AA again no clue.
ATL- WN and DL. F9 ran it the last 2 years but looks to be dropping it this summer. I think they did decent so I would think Spirit could pickup where they left off. Fares are already pretty low without them though.
MYR - Just G4 2x weekly seasonal. Probably wouldn't do too bad.
DTW - WN and DL. no clue

I don't have any sense of how it would do on non "beach" routes. F9 to ATL is about the only ULCC we have ever had on a non beach/PHX/DEN destination. G4 just picked up AZA twice weekly but I would think Spirit might be able to make PHX one work also, at least winter seasonally.


IAH: WN 4x to HOU; UA 5x (regional jets) to IAH for what that's worth
DTW: WN 2x daily; DL 6x daily - 3 DL 717s, 3 G7 (GoJet/Delta Connection regionals) - NK might make a dent in DL grip on the market, but considering how NK is capturing traffic in DTW (see some of the customer loyalty comments earlier in this thread), that might not be so far fetched.
 
raddek
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Re: What's next for Spirit?

Sun Nov 05, 2017 10:53 am

NK has been to ISP in the past. It would not be a brand new city for them, just a return.
I do find the possibility of ROC very interesting if that is true.
I like the odds of RDU before BNA. Only because the CEO is old Airtran and a lot of the cities added were Airtran cities, just saying :)
 
DeltaRules
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Re: What's next for Spirit?

Tue Nov 07, 2017 7:26 pm

I've got a contact who's hearing a new service announcement is taking place at CMH tomorrow. Midwestindy and flymco753 suggested in the Ohio thread it's NK.

Anybody know more?
A310/319/320/321/333, ARJ, BN2, B722/73S/733/734/735/73G/738/739/744/757/753/767/763/764/777, CR1/2/7/9, DH6, 328, EM2/ERJ/E70/E75/E90, F28/100, J31, L10/12/15, DC9/D93/D94/D95/M80/M88/M90/D10, SF3, SST
 
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flymco753
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Re: What's next for Spirit?

Tue Nov 07, 2017 7:51 pm

Well CMH and MKE were AirTran cities that aren't small like CAK, FNT, DAY so if Fornaro wants to add from AirTran cities than these medium-sized markets to Florida and Myrtle Beach should work. What are the gate situations like at these airports?
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DeltaRules
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Re: What's next for Spirit?

Tue Nov 07, 2017 7:54 pm

flymco753 wrote:
Well CMH and MKE were AirTran cities that aren't small like CAK, FNT, DAY so if Fornaro wants to add from AirTran cities than these medium-sized markets to Florida and Myrtle Beach should work. What are the gate situations like at these airports?


https://flycolumbus.com/at-the-airport/terminal-maps

CMH has A1, B36, and C46-47 open. A1, B36, and C48 (currently being used by OneJet, who just started CMH-MKE last week, which could also be used theoretically) need jetways, C46 is the FIS gate, and C47 is only used for Vacation Express flights as of right now.
A310/319/320/321/333, ARJ, BN2, B722/73S/733/734/735/73G/738/739/744/757/753/767/763/764/777, CR1/2/7/9, DH6, 328, EM2/ERJ/E70/E75/E90, F28/100, J31, L10/12/15, DC9/D93/D94/D95/M80/M88/M90/D10, SF3, SST
 
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flymco753
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Re: What's next for Spirit?

Tue Nov 07, 2017 8:02 pm

I assume if they do CMH than it's going to be a 1 gate operation, so there's not really much room to have multiple overnights. How I think it'll pan out is a RON from FLL to accommodate connections, TPA, RSW, MCO and MYR will have to be sandwiched between that unless somehow NK gets another gate to overnight at so that both FLL and MCO are morning departures and evening arrivals.
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msycajun
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Re: What's next for Spirit?

Tue Nov 07, 2017 8:20 pm

I wonder if NK at CMH may mean a shuttering of the CAK operation.
 
DeltaRules
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Re: What's next for Spirit?

Tue Nov 07, 2017 8:35 pm

flymco753 wrote:
I assume if they do CMH than it's going to be a 1 gate operation, so there's not really much room to have multiple overnights. How I think it'll pan out is a RON from FLL to accommodate connections, TPA, RSW, MCO and MYR will have to be sandwiched between that unless somehow NK gets another gate to overnight at so that both FLL and MCO are morning departures and evening arrivals.


I don't know if anyone really uses them anymore other than RP for planes coming out of maintenance, but the de-icing pad East of Concourse B used to be used as a hard stand area for RONs which would be towed to the gate for morning flights. DL used to park a 757 there when they had 3 757s RON.
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Balloonchaser
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Re: What's next for Spirit?

Tue Nov 07, 2017 10:01 pm

I’m still putting KISP out there :)
 
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Slash787
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Re: What's next for Spirit?

Wed Nov 08, 2017 1:43 am

They should order some A321neo's
 
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flymco753
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Re: What's next for Spirit?

Wed Nov 08, 2017 1:43 am

I still think the most possible stations are BNA, RDU, AUS, IND, STL, MKE, and my newly added CMH option to that list at the cost of CAK and LBE.
I also think it’s possible for the withdrawal of CRW because CRW simply makes no sense in my opinionx
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DeltaRules
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Re: What's next for Spirit?

Wed Nov 08, 2017 3:36 pm

It's CMH, and in a big way:

http://www.globenewswire.com/news-relea ... twork.html

MCO, FLL, LAS year-round, TPA, RSW, MSY, MYR seasonal. Florida and LAS begin 2/15/18.
A310/319/320/321/333, ARJ, BN2, B722/73S/733/734/735/73G/738/739/744/757/753/767/763/764/777, CR1/2/7/9, DH6, 328, EM2/ERJ/E70/E75/E90, F28/100, J31, L10/12/15, DC9/D93/D94/D95/M80/M88/M90/D10, SF3, SST
 
ADrum23
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Re: What's next for Spirit?

Wed Nov 08, 2017 3:47 pm

Did not see CMH coming, but congrats to them!

I wonder what the other station will be?
 
xdlx
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Re: What's next for Spirit?

Wed Nov 08, 2017 3:52 pm

santi319 wrote:
MichianaOrthx wrote:

I really do wish them success, the North American market is weak when it comes to ULCCs.



And you wonder why? Scroll up, people are still in the "they charge for everything i hate them wheres my flatbed seat and three course meals for my $20 ticket" mood. America has a lot to catch up.



I just wish they get the upgraded padding on the seats next time...........wait no next time for NK!
 
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flymco753
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Re: What's next for Spirit?

Wed Nov 08, 2017 4:28 pm

I've analyzed the new CMH adds and came out with my predictions in terms of aircraft type.
FLL: 319
MCO: 320
TPA: 319
RSW: 319
MYR: 320
MSY: 320
LAS: 320

Next question, what does this mean for CAK?
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flymco753
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Re: What's next for Spirit?

Wed Nov 08, 2017 6:34 pm

flymco753 wrote:
I've analyzed the new CMH adds and came out with my predictions in terms of aircraft type.
FLL: 319
MCO: 320
TPA: 319
RSW: 319
MYR: 320
MSY: 320
LAS: 320

Next question, what does this mean for CAK?
Got all of the equipment types right aside from RSW which will be an A320. I should do this as a career...
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FLYKTPA
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Re: What's next for Spirit?

Thu Nov 09, 2017 6:47 pm

“We look forward to bringing more service to Cancun and other international destinations in the months ahead.”
https://globenewswire.com/news-release/ ... ancun.html
I wonder what other Cancún routes and international destinations they are considering?
Huge fan of Tampa International Airport
 
DeltaRules
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Re: What's next for Spirit?

Thu Nov 09, 2017 7:49 pm

flymco753 wrote:
flymco753 wrote:
I've analyzed the new CMH adds and came out with my predictions in terms of aircraft type.
FLL: 319
MCO: 320
TPA: 319
RSW: 319
MYR: 320
MSY: 320
LAS: 320

Next question, what does this mean for CAK?
Got all of the equipment types right aside from RSW which will be an A320. I should do this as a career...


I searched last night and got all A319s.
A310/319/320/321/333, ARJ, BN2, B722/73S/733/734/735/73G/738/739/744/757/753/767/763/764/777, CR1/2/7/9, DH6, 328, EM2/ERJ/E70/E75/E90, F28/100, J31, L10/12/15, DC9/D93/D94/D95/M80/M88/M90/D10, SF3, SST
 
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flymco753
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Re: What's next for Spirit?

Thu Nov 09, 2017 8:00 pm

DeltaRules wrote:
flymco753 wrote:
flymco753 wrote:
I've analyzed the new CMH adds and came out with my predictions in terms of aircraft type.
FLL: 319
MCO: 320
TPA: 319
RSW: 319
MYR: 320
MSY: 320
LAS: 320

Next question, what does this mean for CAK?
Got all of the equipment types right aside from RSW which will be an A320. I should do this as a career...


I searched last night and got all A319s.
Hmm you're right, I wrote them down when I looked it up and at the time there was a few 320's in there, must've been updated or so.
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SCHATC422
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Re: What's next for Spirit?

Thu Nov 09, 2017 10:23 pm

Hoping for a ORD-BDL, hopefully 2x BWI-BDL, and possibly a DFW or LAS to BDL?
FAA ATC
Former SWA Ramper
 
msycajun
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Re: What's next for Spirit?

Thu Nov 09, 2017 11:43 pm

Look at the winter, NK has added a second daily nonstop from MSY to BOS, BWI, DTW, and MCO. Counting that along with new flights to MSP, EWR, CLE, TPA, and CMH, they will have more than doubled service from MSY to 18 departures in less than a year. Crazy growth! Will be interesting to see what is added next - I am holding out for some international service. MSY would be a great alternative to FLL and IAH.
 
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flymco753
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Re: What's next for Spirit?

Fri Nov 10, 2017 3:22 am

^DTW got 2 additional winter flights too, a 4th to TPA and 2nd to MSY, that brings total departures up to 30/day. I expect this summer to be around 32 with the addition of SAN and BDL as a definite. I expect NK will be up to 40 departures at DTW by 2020.

I never realized how successful the MSY flight is, but it seems healthy which makes sense why they added a 2nd flight. MSP is also fairly strong so that could quite possibly go A321 or 2x A320 in the summer and redeploy the aircraft somewhere warm come winter time.
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flymco753
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Re: What's next for Spirit?

Tue Nov 14, 2017 3:38 pm

RIC-MCO/FLL both on A319s beginning 15 Mar.
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izbtmnhd
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Re: What's next for Spirit?

Tue Nov 14, 2017 6:47 pm

flymco753 wrote:
I've analyzed the new CMH adds and came out with my predictions in terms of aircraft type.
FLL: 319
MCO: 320
TPA: 319
RSW: 319
MYR: 320
MSY: 320
LAS: 320

Next question, what does this mean for CAK?


Not quite sure why the CMH operation plays a role in the ultimate death of NK at CAK. CLE and CAK are in the same regional market yet NK started service from CAK while CLE had a larger operation than what's planned for CMH. Granted CAK has already been pared down pretty quickly but I don't see how CMH will kill it off. I can't really think of scenario where a person from Akron or Canton will drive to Columbus over Hopkins to fly NK.
 
phluser
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Re: What's next for Spirit?

Tue Nov 14, 2017 7:36 pm

izbtmnhd wrote:
flymco753 wrote:
I've analyzed the new CMH adds and came out with my predictions in terms of aircraft type.
FLL: 319
MCO: 320
TPA: 319
RSW: 319
MYR: 320
MSY: 320
LAS: 320

Next question, what does this mean for CAK?


Not quite sure why the CMH operation plays a role in the ultimate death of NK at CAK. CLE and CAK are in the same regional market yet NK started service from CAK while CLE had a larger operation than what's planned for CMH. Granted CAK has already been pared down pretty quickly but I don't see how CMH will kill it off. I can't really think of scenario where a person from Akron or Canton will drive to Columbus over Hopkins to fly NK.


How about a scenario of someone from Mansfield?
 
izbtmnhd
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Re: What's next for Spirit?

Tue Nov 14, 2017 8:49 pm

phluser wrote:
izbtmnhd wrote:
flymco753 wrote:
I've analyzed the new CMH adds and came out with my predictions in terms of aircraft type.
FLL: 319
MCO: 320
TPA: 319
RSW: 319
MYR: 320
MSY: 320
LAS: 320

Next question, what does this mean for CAK?


Not quite sure why the CMH operation plays a role in the ultimate death of NK at CAK. CLE and CAK are in the same regional market yet NK started service from CAK while CLE had a larger operation than what's planned for CMH. Granted CAK has already been pared down pretty quickly but I don't see how CMH will kill it off. I can't really think of scenario where a person from Akron or Canton will drive to Columbus over Hopkins to fly NK.


How about a scenario of someone from Mansfield?


1. The Akron/Canton area combined has roughly 1 million people. Mansfield doesn't even have 100k. Hard to believe the Mansfield market possibly gravitating to CMH is make or break for what's left at CAK. Especially with another 2 million+ people (Cleveland) bordering the area just to the north of Akron/Canton.

2. In fairness, Mansfield is also a pretty equidistant between CMH/CLE/CAK so I don't think Spirit adding Columbus gravitates all of the Mansfield NK traffic to Central Ohio.

Just like LBE's fortunes are tied to PIT, CAK's fortunes are tied to CLE in regards to NK. I don't see CMH playing much of a role in CAK's Spirit operation.
 
DeltaRules
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Re: What's next for Spirit?

Tue Nov 14, 2017 9:39 pm

I would say the fate of DAY getting NK is more tied to CMH than their future at CAK.
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klm617
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Re: What's next for Spirit?

Tue Nov 14, 2017 9:48 pm

All this talk about Detroit being a Spirit hub and yet no additions in the Detroit market for a while now. If Detroit was as important as you all say to Spirit we would have had some adds in this market. Detroit gets no more or no less considerations when it comes to adding new markets than any other city in the USA Detroit is not a Spirit hub it is nothing more than a focus city in the NK operation just like so many other NK stations.
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phluser
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Re: What's next for Spirit?

Tue Nov 14, 2017 10:08 pm

izbtmnhd wrote:
phluser wrote:
izbtmnhd wrote:

Not quite sure why the CMH operation plays a role in the ultimate death of NK at CAK. CLE and CAK are in the same regional market yet NK started service from CAK while CLE had a larger operation than what's planned for CMH. Granted CAK has already been pared down pretty quickly but I don't see how CMH will kill it off. I can't really think of scenario where a person from Akron or Canton will drive to Columbus over Hopkins to fly NK.


How about a scenario of someone from Mansfield?


1. The Akron/Canton area combined has roughly 1 million people. Mansfield doesn't even have 100k. Hard to believe the Mansfield market possibly gravitating to CMH is make or break for what's left at CAK. Especially with another 2 million+ people (Cleveland) bordering the area just to the north of Akron/Canton.

2. In fairness, Mansfield is also a pretty equidistant between CMH/CLE/CAK so I don't think Spirit adding Columbus gravitates all of the Mansfield NK traffic to Central Ohio.

Just like LBE's fortunes are tied to PIT, CAK's fortunes are tied to CLE in regards to NK. I don't see CMH playing much of a role in CAK's Spirit operation.


I think others here are just trying to point out that Spirit opening at CMH adds some additional competition to CAK has been floundering. CAK might lose some draw from pax in the middle areas between CAK and CMH, and even losing 10% of pax can make it go to "underperforming" levels. I don't think anyone has argued it opening at CMH plays "much of a role in CAK" like how you are responding.

As for the passengers in the small remote areas, don't discount them. I'm frankly surprised at Spirit's LBE success after it has opened and grown in PIT. And LBE is one rural not so easy to get to airport, although it has free parking.

One one hand, Spirit might be fine keeping CAK as a 2x daily station. On the other hand, it could just augment CLE-MCO to 2x daily as Frontier will only be flying 1x daily (down from 2x daily). My guess is Spirit will keep CAK open for awhile, as it has some 1-2 daily flight stations.
 
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flymco753
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Re: What's next for Spirit?

Tue Nov 14, 2017 10:46 pm

phluser wrote:
izbtmnhd wrote:
phluser wrote:

How about a scenario of someone from Mansfield?


1. The Akron/Canton area combined has roughly 1 million people. Mansfield doesn't even have 100k. Hard to believe the Mansfield market possibly gravitating to CMH is make or break for what's left at CAK. Especially with another 2 million+ people (Cleveland) bordering the area just to the north of Akron/Canton.

2. In fairness, Mansfield is also a pretty equidistant between CMH/CLE/CAK so I don't think Spirit adding Columbus gravitates all of the Mansfield NK traffic to Central Ohio.

Just like LBE's fortunes are tied to PIT, CAK's fortunes are tied to CLE in regards to NK. I don't see CMH playing much of a role in CAK's Spirit operation.


I think others here are just trying to point out that Spirit opening at CMH adds some additional competition to CAK has been floundering. CAK might lose some draw from pax in the middle areas between CAK and CMH, and even losing 10% of pax can make it go to "underperforming" levels. I don't think anyone has argued it opening at CMH plays "much of a role in CAK" like how you are responding.

As for the passengers in the small remote areas, don't discount them. I'm frankly surprised at Spirit's LBE success after it has opened and grown in PIT. And LBE is one rural not so easy to get to airport, although it has free parking.

One one hand, Spirit might be fine keeping CAK as a 2x daily station. On the other hand, it could just augment CLE-MCO to 2x daily as Frontier will only be flying 1x daily (down from 2x daily). My guess is Spirit will keep CAK open for awhile, as it has some 1-2 daily flight stations.
Plus, if I have PIT, CLE and CMH than CAK and LBE are becoming irrelevant if draw is going to effect these services. LBE has seen its cuts because of PIT. I assume if NK ever gets into BUF, IAG is gone. With travel today, large airlines aren't going to simply be able to make the best of their profits, so airports like DAY, FNT, CAK, EVV, ABE, AVP markets aren't going to make the best out of large airlines resources.
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User avatar
flymco753
Posts: 1628
Joined: Fri Jun 10, 2016 2:09 am

Re: What's next for Spirit?

Tue Nov 14, 2017 11:11 pm

klm617 wrote:
All this talk about Detroit being a Spirit hub and yet no additions in the Detroit market for a while now. If Detroit was as important as you all say to Spirit we would have had some adds in this market. Detroit gets no more or no less considerations when it comes to adding new markets than any other city in the USA Detroit is not a Spirit hub it is nothing more than a focus city in the NK operation just like so many other NK stations.
Lets talk YoY for NK just for the winter.
I want to note the explosion of Florida service; MCO, TPA, and RSW in particular. Also don't forget how much capacity is being added into DTW. Notice the influx of A321's, they almost have as many seats as a Delta 757-300. This summer will feature even more seats. Both TPA and RSW will run daily as opposed to 3 and 4x weekly. MCO will be 3 instead of 2x daily. OAK is coming back on an A321, SEA on an A320, both from the next lower type exclusively. Spirit now has over 9% of the market, that's incredible.

W2016/17:
LGA 2 319/319
BWI 1 319
PHL 1 319
ATL 2 319/320
MCO 3 320/320/320
TPA 2 320/319
RSW 3 320/320/319
FLL 2 321/320
MSY 1 320
MYR 1 320
MCI 1 320
DFW 1 319
IAH 1 319
LAS 3 320, 321, 319
LAX 1 319
CUN 1 321
DEN 1 320

W2017/18
LGA 2 319/320
BWI 1 320
MYR 1 320
ATL 2 320/321
MCO 4 321/319/320/319
TPA 4 320/320/320/320
RSW 4 321/320/320/319
FLL 2 321/321
CUN 1 321
MSY 2 320/320
MCI 1 320
MSP 1 320
IAH 1 321
DFW 1 320
DEN 1 320
LAS 3 320/321/320
LAX 1 320
Whether you're here on business, returning home, or visiting our world class attractions, welcome to Orlando and Central Florida...
 
marvinanderson1
Posts: 1
Joined: Wed Nov 08, 2017 4:39 pm

Re: What's next for Spirit?

Tue Nov 14, 2017 11:43 pm

Concerning NK at CAK I think the jury is still out. Spirit has only been flying there 1 year. It takes time to build up a market. Furthermore who knows the impact that Allegiant leaving Youngstown/Warren will have on CAK. The Akron/Canton metro area has over 1.2 million population which is much larger than Latrobe and once they find their niche they may just take off. Also I would not be surprised if Sun Country chooses CAK over neighboring airports like CLE,PIT, and CMH which are becoming oversaturated with LCCs. We will see.
 
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cvgComair
Posts: 1033
Joined: Thu Jul 07, 2016 3:48 pm

Re: What's next for Spirit?

Wed Nov 15, 2017 12:16 am

marvinanderson1 wrote:
Also I would not be surprised if Sun Country chooses CAK over neighboring airports like CLE,PIT, and CMH which are becoming oversaturated with LCCs.

We will have to see with SY, I do find it interesting the CEO mentioned airports NK does not serve when identifying where they would like to expand next (CVG/IND/MKE). It appears NK is taking over the CMH/CLE/PIT/YNG/LBE area for LCC service, F9 seems to have struggled in PIT/CMH are they are significantly cutting CLE, same goes G4, pulling out of CAK/YNG and not much has happened lately in CLE/PIT/LCK. I don't see any reason why NK will pull out of LBE/CAK, NK is clearly not interested in adding the "next biggest cities", adding CMH/RIC is evidence of this. I could see LBE being transferred to PIT in the longer term, but I am not so sure we will see them completely exit LBE soon. NK seems like they are quite happy with their operations and the airports have catchment areas large enough for NK's service.
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klm617
Posts: 1670
Joined: Sat Jul 04, 2015 8:57 pm

Re: What's next for Spirit?

Wed Nov 15, 2017 1:08 am

flymco753 wrote:
klm617 wrote:
All this talk about Detroit being a Spirit hub and yet no additions in the Detroit market for a while now. If Detroit was as important as you all say to Spirit we would have had some adds in this market. Detroit gets no more or no less considerations when it comes to adding new markets than any other city in the USA Detroit is not a Spirit hub it is nothing more than a focus city in the NK operation just like so many other NK stations.
Lets talk YoY for NK just for the winter.
I want to note the explosion of Florida service; MCO, TPA, and RSW in particular. Also don't forget how much capacity is being added into DTW. Notice the influx of A321's, they almost have as many seats as a Delta 757-300. This summer will feature even more seats. Both TPA and RSW will run daily as opposed to 3 and 4x weekly. MCO will be 3 instead of 2x daily. OAK is coming back on an A321, SEA on an A320, both from the next lower type exclusively. Spirit now has over 9% of the market, that's incredible.

W2016/17:
LGA 2 319/319
BWI 1 319
PHL 1 319
ATL 2 319/320
MCO 3 320/320/320
TPA 2 320/319
RSW 3 320/320/319
FLL 2 321/320
MSY 1 320
MYR 1 320
MCI 1 320
DFW 1 319
IAH 1 319
LAS 3 320, 321, 319
LAX 1 319
CUN 1 321
DEN 1 320

W2017/18
LGA 2 319/320
BWI 1 320
MYR 1 320
ATL 2 320/321
MCO 4 321/319/320/319
TPA 4 320/320/320/320
RSW 4 321/320/320/319
FLL 2 321/321
CUN 1 321
MSY 2 320/320
MCI 1 320
MSP 1 320
IAH 1 321
DFW 1 320
DEN 1 320
LAS 3 320/321/320
LAX 1 320



Those 4 flights a day to MCO/RSW/TPA they just released their November schedule and it doesn't show 4 flights to any of those destinations and there are no new destinations since last year still 17.
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
 
User avatar
flymco753
Posts: 1628
Joined: Fri Jun 10, 2016 2:09 am

Re: What's next for Spirit?

Wed Nov 15, 2017 3:34 pm

klm617 wrote:
flymco753 wrote:
klm617 wrote:
All this talk about Detroit being a Spirit hub and yet no additions in the Detroit market for a while now. If Detroit was as important as you all say to Spirit we would have had some adds in this market. Detroit gets no more or no less considerations when it comes to adding new markets than any other city in the USA Detroit is not a Spirit hub it is nothing more than a focus city in the NK operation just like so many other NK stations.
Lets talk YoY for NK just for the winter.
I want to note the explosion of Florida service; MCO, TPA, and RSW in particular. Also don't forget how much capacity is being added into DTW. Notice the influx of A321's, they almost have as many seats as a Delta 757-300. This summer will feature even more seats. Both TPA and RSW will run daily as opposed to 3 and 4x weekly. MCO will be 3 instead of 2x daily. OAK is coming back on an A321, SEA on an A320, both from the next lower type exclusively. Spirit now has over 9% of the market, that's incredible.

W2016/17:
LGA 2 319/319
BWI 1 319
PHL 1 319
ATL 2 319/320
MCO 3 320/320/320
TPA 2 320/319
RSW 3 320/320/319
FLL 2 321/320
MSY 1 320
MYR 1 320
MCI 1 320
DFW 1 319
IAH 1 319
LAS 3 320, 321, 319
LAX 1 319
CUN 1 321
DEN 1 320

W2017/18
LGA 2 319/320
BWI 1 320
MYR 1 320
ATL 2 320/321
MCO 4 321/319/320/319
TPA 4 320/320/320/320
RSW 4 321/320/320/319
FLL 2 321/321
CUN 1 321
MSY 2 320/320
MCI 1 320
MSP 1 320
IAH 1 321
DFW 1 320
DEN 1 320
LAS 3 320/321/320
LAX 1 320



Those 4 flights a day to MCO/RSW/TPA they just released their November schedule and it doesn't show 4 flights to any of those destinations and there are no new destinations since last year still 17.
This is technically still slow season for DTW-Florida. Most folks won't start going up or coming down until Christmas, that's why the airlines are getting away with flying less flights on bigger planes, filling those bigger planes. I already counted, next summer we will be at 30 daily departures and arrivals, if SAN and BDL are added with a new station or 2, DTW will easily hit 34 or 35 departures and arrivals.
Whether you're here on business, returning home, or visiting our world class attractions, welcome to Orlando and Central Florida...
 
User avatar
knope2001
Posts: 2603
Joined: Wed Jun 01, 2005 5:54 am

Re: What's next for Spirit?

Thu Nov 16, 2017 3:06 am

flymco753 wrote:
Well CMH and MKE were AirTran cities that aren't small like CAK, FNT, DAY so if Fornaro wants to add from AirTran cities than these medium-sized markets to Florida and Myrtle Beach should work. What are the gate situations like at these airports?


That Richmond was announced fits the idea of Spirit looking for AirTran markets Southwest has left behind. Richmond is a significant market on its own and it can draw from the Tidewater region, especially the Virginia peninsula (Newport News, Hampton, Williamsburg areas).

Prior to merger Southwest and AirTran provided a comparably large amount of service to the region (RIC/PHF/ORF)
Summer 2010
29 weekday departures to 10 nonstop destinations

In the years since consolidation Newport News was dumped, Norfolk has contracted and Richmond has stagnated.
Summer 2018
11 weekday departures to 4 nonstop destinations

Just as important there hasn't been a whole lot of backfill from other carriers, so there's some room

Columbus wasn't the biggest AirTran market (though by the time of the Southwest buyout they had several Florida routes in addition to Atlanta) but Allegiant being at Rickenbacker rather than CMH may have made a more significant opportunity for them.

If Milwaukee is still indeed on the Spirit short list I think it does make sense that CMH and RIC would be first. Both Columbus and Richmond are starting during the winter-to-spring rush and they are Florida focused. Milwaukee's best opportunities are not to squeeze into Florida for this winter -- peak MKE-Florida weekly seats are already up around 25% in 2018 over 2017. The best opportunities are more east-west as the weather gets warmer -- Los Angeles, Dallas, SF Bay, etc. So if Spirit is coming to Milwaukee it makes a lot more sense to start in April or May, something they'd probably announced down the road a bit.

Indy had a good deal of AirTran attention but there may be fewer gaps. Allegiant has a nice flock of routes and three nonstop carriers each to Los Angeles and SF Bay. That doesn't mean there are no routes at Indy where Spirit couldn't be absorbed. But if Spirit is looking to plant their flag in more mid-sized cities I can see why CMH and RIC are already starting this winter and why having MKE come next could make sense.

Two others which come to mind -- Dayton and Flint -- are perhaps tougher. A lot of AirTran's success was drawing heavily from Cincinnati and Detroit. But Detroit and especially Cincinnati have quite a bit of low-fare service now and Allegiant is in both DAY and FNT.
 
klm617
Posts: 1670
Joined: Sat Jul 04, 2015 8:57 pm

Re: What's next for Spirit?

Thu Nov 16, 2017 12:26 pm

knope2001 wrote:
flymco753 wrote:
Well CMH and MKE were AirTran cities that aren't small like CAK, FNT, DAY so if Fornaro wants to add from AirTran cities than these medium-sized markets to Florida and Myrtle Beach should work. What are the gate situations like at these airports?


That Richmond was announced fits the idea of Spirit looking for AirTran markets Southwest has left behind. Richmond is a significant market on its own and it can draw from the Tidewater region, especially the Virginia peninsula (Newport News, Hampton, Williamsburg areas).

Prior to merger Southwest and AirTran provided a comparably large amount of service to the region (RIC/PHF/ORF)
Summer 2010
29 weekday departures to 10 nonstop destinations

In the years since consolidation Newport News was dumped, Norfolk has contracted and Richmond has stagnated.
Summer 2018
11 weekday departures to 4 nonstop destinations

Just as important there hasn't been a whole lot of backfill from other carriers, so there's some room

Columbus wasn't the biggest AirTran market (though by the time of the Southwest buyout they had several Florida routes in addition to Atlanta) but Allegiant being at Rickenbacker rather than CMH may have made a more significant opportunity for them.

If Milwaukee is still indeed on the Spirit short list I think it does make sense that CMH and RIC would be first. Both Columbus and Richmond are starting during the winter-to-spring rush and they are Florida focused. Milwaukee's best opportunities are not to squeeze into Florida for this winter -- peak MKE-Florida weekly seats are already up around 25% in 2018 over 2017. The best opportunities are more east-west as the weather gets warmer -- Los Angeles, Dallas, SF Bay, etc. So if Spirit is coming to Milwaukee it makes a lot more sense to start in April or May, something they'd probably announced down the road a bit.

Indy had a good deal of AirTran attention but there may be fewer gaps. Allegiant has a nice flock of routes and three nonstop carriers each to Los Angeles and SF Bay. That doesn't mean there are no routes at Indy where Spirit couldn't be absorbed. But if Spirit is looking to plant their flag in more mid-sized cities I can see why CMH and RIC are already starting this winter and why having MKE come next could make sense.

Two others which come to mind -- Dayton and Flint -- are perhaps tougher. A lot of AirTran's success was drawing heavily from Cincinnati and Detroit. But Detroit and especially Cincinnati have quite a bit of low-fare service now and Allegiant is in both DAY and FNT.



Yes but the thing with Allegiant is they fly less than daily and not to the main airports in the cities they serve like Spirit. MCO is much more desirable than SFB. I think FNT is a great fit for Spirit. I'd rather see Spirit add capacity to Florida from Flint and add new cities from DTW that aren't viable from Flint rather than increasing capacity to Florida..
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
 
User avatar
flymco753
Posts: 1628
Joined: Fri Jun 10, 2016 2:09 am

Re: What's next for Spirit?

Thu Nov 16, 2017 5:08 pm

klm617 wrote:
knope2001 wrote:
flymco753 wrote:
Well CMH and MKE were AirTran cities that aren't small like CAK, FNT, DAY so if Fornaro wants to add from AirTran cities than these medium-sized markets to Florida and Myrtle Beach should work. What are the gate situations like at these airports?


That Richmond was announced fits the idea of Spirit looking for AirTran markets Southwest has left behind. Richmond is a significant market on its own and it can draw from the Tidewater region, especially the Virginia peninsula (Newport News, Hampton, Williamsburg areas).

Prior to merger Southwest and AirTran provided a comparably large amount of service to the region (RIC/PHF/ORF)
Summer 2010
29 weekday departures to 10 nonstop destinations

In the years since consolidation Newport News was dumped, Norfolk has contracted and Richmond has stagnated.
Summer 2018
11 weekday departures to 4 nonstop destinations

Just as important there hasn't been a whole lot of backfill from other carriers, so there's some room

Columbus wasn't the biggest AirTran market (though by the time of the Southwest buyout they had several Florida routes in addition to Atlanta) but Allegiant being at Rickenbacker rather than CMH may have made a more significant opportunity for them.

If Milwaukee is still indeed on the Spirit short list I think it does make sense that CMH and RIC would be first. Both Columbus and Richmond are starting during the winter-to-spring rush and they are Florida focused. Milwaukee's best opportunities are not to squeeze into Florida for this winter -- peak MKE-Florida weekly seats are already up around 25% in 2018 over 2017. The best opportunities are more east-west as the weather gets warmer -- Los Angeles, Dallas, SF Bay, etc. So if Spirit is coming to Milwaukee it makes a lot more sense to start in April or May, something they'd probably announced down the road a bit.

Indy had a good deal of AirTran attention but there may be fewer gaps. Allegiant has a nice flock of routes and three nonstop carriers each to Los Angeles and SF Bay. That doesn't mean there are no routes at Indy where Spirit couldn't be absorbed. But if Spirit is looking to plant their flag in more mid-sized cities I can see why CMH and RIC are already starting this winter and why having MKE come next could make sense.

Two others which come to mind -- Dayton and Flint -- are perhaps tougher. A lot of AirTran's success was drawing heavily from Cincinnati and Detroit. But Detroit and especially Cincinnati have quite a bit of low-fare service now and Allegiant is in both DAY and FNT.



Yes but the thing with Allegiant is they fly less than daily and not to the main airports in the cities they serve like Spirit. MCO is much more desirable than SFB. I think FNT is a great fit for Spirit. I'd rather see Spirit add capacity to Florida from Flint and add new cities from DTW that aren't viable from Flint rather than increasing capacity to Florida..
NK would never add FNT because it would cannibalize their DTW hub operation, I know of only 1 other NK station at this moment that can indoc all of the new aircraft variants, in fact NK just sent a brand new A321 from Mobile to DTW for indoc yesterday I believe, also when FLL employees had to relocate, Spirit chose DTW over DFW or LAS.
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F9Animal
Posts: 3908
Joined: Thu Dec 16, 2004 7:13 am

Re: What's next for Spirit?

Thu Nov 16, 2017 7:01 pm

Does anyone know how Spirit is doing in SEA? I noticed they went from 3 daily SEA to LAS to 2 daily flights. I also heard LAX is being chopped?
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flymco753
Posts: 1628
Joined: Fri Jun 10, 2016 2:09 am

Re: What's next for Spirit?

Thu Nov 16, 2017 7:12 pm

F9Animal wrote:
Does anyone know how Spirit is doing in SEA? I noticed they went from 3 daily SEA to LAS to 2 daily flights. I also heard LAX is being chopped?
There's just no need for a 3rd LAS flight when DTW and BWI are providing connections now too, SEA-DTW must be doing well if it was upgauged from an A319 to an A320.
Whether you're here on business, returning home, or visiting our world class attractions, welcome to Orlando and Central Florida...
 
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aemoreira1981
Posts: 880
Joined: Mon Jan 09, 2017 12:17 am

Re: What's next for Spirit?

Thu Nov 16, 2017 7:21 pm

I wonder if NK would be interested in buying SY just for MSP slots and then close Sun Country...expanding at LAS, which is a major base for WN and also the HQ of G4, should also be considered. Given the huge order placed by Indigo Partners (and that Indigo has stakes in both NK and F9), that could be a future base for more aircraft for NK. NK could also redeploy capacity from the summer season to MSP for the winter instead of having to rely on HV metal. As for a merger with F9 (with the Spirit name surviving), I cannot rule that out as I am expecting that NK will become a true national ULCC, with the business models of NK and F9 being similar---flying into generally major airports on busy routes. Some international flying could also be expanded out of DFW, but most should be out of FLL.

Also, for the A319s, why not reconfigure them to F8Y138 by taking out two Big Front Seats? The FAA limit is 149 seats for an A319, and that is still under the limit. As for that Indigo order, I hope it has A321neo planes in it.
 
F9Animal
Posts: 3908
Joined: Thu Dec 16, 2004 7:13 am

Re: What's next for Spirit?

Thu Nov 16, 2017 7:48 pm

flymco753 wrote:
F9Animal wrote:
Does anyone know how Spirit is doing in SEA? I noticed they went from 3 daily SEA to LAS to 2 daily flights. I also heard LAX is being chopped?
There's just no need for a 3rd LAS flight when DTW and BWI are providing connections now too, SEA-DTW must be doing well if it was upgauged from an A319 to an A320.


True. I just hope the removal of the one flight is a seasonal move. Spring and Summer are key for the need of 3 flights. I would think the LAS flights would be packed with those insane low prices. I haven't seen any advertising in the Seattle area for Spirit.
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