Washington State air service discussion 2017

717atOGG · Thu Aug 10, 2017 8:38 pm

BA wrote:
717atOGG wrote:
Since UA just announced PAE-SFO and DEN, does anyone have any guesses to which routes AS will add from PAE? And since it's a two gate terminal, does that rule out the possibility of a third airline at PAE? My guess is probably.

For AS, all they've said is Oregon and California, so I only see PAE-LAX, PAE-SFO, and PAE-PDX. Since they've said 9 daily flights, it might just be 3 flights to each or something close to that.

You're right that with United in the picture, PAE is up to 15 flights a day. With the two gates, it's designed for 16 flights. I wouldn't be surprised if Alaska snatches the last flight and commits to 10, maybe to do PAE-LAS.

That seems about right. There goes my pipe dream of a PAE-HNL.

It's probably a matter of weeks till AS announces their PAE flights. If UA or AS removes a flight from PAE, other airlines could be chomping at the bit to get flights. In other news, does anyone know how the IAB construction is going? I flew through SEA two weeks ago and saw A6 and A7 blocked off, and the signage was numbered up to gate A21, even though there's only 14 gates in A. Is that number including hardstands that will be added or an extension of A? I don't know, but it's intriguing. :stirthepot:

BA · Thu Aug 10, 2017 9:22 pm

717atOGG wrote:
BA wrote:
717atOGG wrote:
In other news, does anyone know how the IAB construction is going? I flew through SEA two weeks ago and saw A6 and A7 blocked off, and the signage was numbered up to gate A21, even though there's only 14 gates in A. Is that number including hardstands that will be added or an extension of A? I don't know, but it's intriguing.

Last Friday I saw a bunch of excavators and dirt in the IAF area, so at least it's going. I'm curious if they're on schedule or behind schedule. Hopefully at least on schedule, this project can't afford anymore delays...

A6 and A7 are blocked off and the jet bridges have been removed from them as well. Not sure why they chose A21 for the bus boarding gate that got installed at the end of Concourse A. The Master Plan may involve extending Concourse A, but that won't be for a long time as it will involve relocating the Delta and Alaska hangars.

717atOGG · Thu Aug 10, 2017 9:58 pm

BA wrote:
717atOGG wrote:
BA wrote:

Last Friday I saw a bunch of excavators and dirt in the IAF area, so at least it's going. I'm curious if they're on schedule or behind schedule. Hopefully at least on schedule, this project can't afford anymore delays...

A6 and A7 are blocked off and the jet bridges have been removed from them as well. Not sure why they chose A21 for the bus boarding gate that got installed at the end of Concourse A. The Master Plan may involve extending Concourse A, but that won't be for a long time as it will involve relocating the Delta and Alaska hangars.

Ok. Is there any planned expansion from the master plan of the four main terminals other than Northstar and the IAB facility? I'd guess that SEA will be a 50 million pax airport in 10 years, and expansion could be necessary soon. I don't know if this could really happen, but in between the 2nd and 3rd runways, it looks like there could be a straight "Eagle's Nest" terminal for regional jets, but I don't know if they could have a train going under a runway, and people movers are impractical. Something about the size of Concourse B or C, with 15 or so parking slips. Does anyone think this could be possible?
Here's what I'm talking about.
Screenshot 2017-08-10 at 2.48.08 PM by coolian03, on Flickr

BA · Thu Aug 10, 2017 10:34 pm

717atOGG wrote:
BA wrote:
717atOGG wrote:

Last Friday I saw a bunch of excavators and dirt in the IAF area, so at least it's going. I'm curious if they're on schedule or behind schedule. Hopefully at least on schedule, this project can't afford anymore delays...

A6 and A7 are blocked off and the jet bridges have been removed from them as well. Not sure why they chose A21 for the bus boarding gate that got installed at the end of Concourse A. The Master Plan may involve extending Concourse A, but that won't be for a long time as it will involve relocating the Delta and Alaska hangars.

Ok. Is there any planned expansion from the master plan of the four main terminals other than Northstar and the IAB facility? I'd guess that SEA will be a 50 million pax airport in 10 years, and expansion could be necessary soon. I don't know if this could really happen, but in between the 2nd and 3rd runways, it looks like there could be a straight "Eagle's Nest" terminal for regional jets, but I don't know if they could have a train going under a runway, and people movers are impractical. Something about the size of Concourse B or C, with 15 or so parking slips. Does anyone think this could be possible?
Here's what I'm talking about.
Screenshot 2017-08-10 at 2.48.08 PM by coolian03, on Flickr

Northstar and the IAF are not part of the Master Plan. The master plan is still in development and is to cover airport expansion needs beyond all existing projects in work and in planning.

Go here for information on the airport master plan, there's a few proposals they're tossing around. Scroll down to Documentation and go through the presentations in Staffing briefings to the commission.
https://www.portseattle.org/Business/Co ... -plan.aspx

n7371f · Fri Aug 11, 2017 4:29 am

717atOGG wrote:
n7371f wrote:
jplatts wrote:
Will Delta be reviving nonstop service to DFW from SEA? Delta used to serve DFW nonstop from SEA back when Delta had a hub at DFW, but Delta could bring back nonstop service to DFW from SEA since Delta has a hub in SEA and since Delta has been recently expanding to additional destinations from SEA.

It's coming. Likely by next summer.

I'm intrigued. Do you have a source for this?

Yes.

dc10lover · Fri Aug 11, 2017 9:48 pm

Serious question. Can Paine Field expand beyond the current design. Only 2 Gates? Come on! This Airport will be strictly for O&D traffic. They should build it so it has at least 5 Gates. I expect Alaska to use 737's since the airport is restricted to the number of Gates.

717atOGG · Fri Aug 11, 2017 10:31 pm

dc10lover wrote:
Serious question. Can Paine Field expand beyond the current design. Only 2 Gates? Come on! This Airport will be strictly for O&D traffic. They should build it so it has at least 5 Gates. I expect Alaska to use 737's since the airport is restricted to the number of Gates.

I've seen in the topic about UA adding PAE that they can always convert one of the gates to two RJ parking slips, and leave the other gate for jets, but I don't think that would be a viable solution. I don't know where the terminal will be located at Paine Field, so I can't tell if there would be room for additional gates. A solution that seems practical, though, would be to have a hardstand bus gate for RJ's and maybe G4 or some other airline that chooses to fly there, and if no one decides to use it, then they won't lose any money over it, as opposed to building a gate. I'm sure that there's space to do so, and it would be easy to set up. I do agree with you saying that AS 737's will be used to California, but I expect the E175 or Q400 to PDX for sure and GEG if AS flies there. Where will the parking facilities be located at PAE, and does anyone know if they'll have a rental car facility? Just wondering.

BA · Fri Aug 11, 2017 11:31 pm

dc10lover wrote:
Serious question. Can Paine Field expand beyond the current design. Only 2 Gates? Come on! This Airport will be strictly for O&D traffic. They should build it so it has at least 5 Gates. I expect Alaska to use 737's since the airport is restricted to the number of Gates.

With the footprint they're working with, they can maybe add a 3rd gate, but no more. The space is not ideal for anything larger.

717atOGG wrote:
I don't know where the terminal will be located at Paine Field, so I can't tell if there would be room for additional gates.

Off 100th St SW next to the control tower.

717atOGG wrote:
Where will the parking facilities be located at PAE, and does anyone know if they'll have a rental car facility? Just wondering.

Yes and yes and also Everett Transit.

717atOGG · Sat Aug 12, 2017 12:26 am

BA wrote:
dc10lover wrote:
Serious question. Can Paine Field expand beyond the current design. Only 2 Gates? Come on! This Airport will be strictly for O&D traffic. They should build it so it has at least 5 Gates. I expect Alaska to use 737's since the airport is restricted to the number of Gates.

With the footprint they're working with, they can maybe add a 3rd gate, but no more. The space is not ideal for anything larger.

717atOGG wrote:
I don't know where the terminal will be located at Paine Field, so I can't tell if there would be room for additional gates.

Off 100th St SW next to the control tower.

717atOGG wrote:
Where will the parking facilities be located at PAE, and does anyone know if they'll have a rental car facility? Just wondering.

Yes and yes and also Everett Transit.

Ok. Thanks for filling that in. I'm guessing that PAE could potentially have the capacity for 500k passengers annually.

b6sea · Sat Aug 12, 2017 12:41 am

I didn't see this previously mentioned but the Condor and Thomas Cook are heavily oriented toward Alaska cruise passengers departing from Seattle during the summer cruise season.

As far as PAE, I've been pretty vocal in my thoughts about that. That's not to mention the opposition from folks in Mukilteo and other areas around the airport. I think the 500k number is not unreasonable, but I can't see Snohomish County approving much more than that without serious opposition, not to mention the very serious logistical challenges that exist getting to PAE on weekdays from the Eastside or North Seattle. Not that getting to SeaTac is a breeze from the North End, but I still maintain that to much of the Eastside, SeaTac is equally convenient time-wise with significantly more frequency in the event you miss your flight or have any sort of issue. That said, I think that AS will make a go at LAS, maybe HNL, almost definitely PDX (although they say they're using the E-jets and 737s from PAE so that would be a big upgrade from the Q-400s they run from SEA) and probably LAX, SFO, SAN, maybe a couple others.

I would be happy to see more service to both EAT and YKM from literally anywhere. (Also ALW, but PSC being so close makes that difficult when it has so much service and is just under an hour away). I always wonder why YKM and EAT get overlooked by airlines and despite being a big AS booster, I would love to see DL serve some of these smaller places. It's great if they want to donate a bunch of money to non-profits and support our arts institutions and events and stuff, but what would really help is doing what they're good at and actually serving communities throughout Washington, not just cherry picking the most profitable ones. But that's another discussion for another thread, I reckon.

717atOGG · Sat Aug 12, 2017 1:02 am

b6sea wrote:
I didn't see this previously mentioned but the Condor and Thomas Cook are heavily oriented toward Alaska cruise passengers departing from Seattle during the summer cruise season.

As far as PAE, I've been pretty vocal in my thoughts about that. That's not to mention the opposition from folks in Mukilteo and other areas around the airport. I think the 500k number is not unreasonable, but I can't see Snohomish County approving much more than that without serious opposition, not to mention the very serious logistical challenges that exist getting to PAE on weekdays from the Eastside or North Seattle. Not that getting to SeaTac is a breeze from the North End, but I still maintain that to much of the Eastside, SeaTac is equally convenient time-wise with significantly more frequency in the event you miss your flight or have any sort of issue. That said, I think that AS will make a go at LAS, maybe HNL, almost definitely PDX (although they say they're using the E-jets and 737s from PAE so that would be a big upgrade from the Q-400s they run from SEA) and probably LAX, SFO, SAN, maybe a couple others.

I would be happy to see more service to both EAT and YKM from literally anywhere. (Also ALW, but PSC being so close makes that difficult when it has so much service and is just under an hour away). I always wonder why YKM and EAT get overlooked by airlines and despite being a big AS booster, I would love to see DL serve some of these smaller places. It's great if they want to donate a bunch of money to non-profits and support our arts institutions and events and stuff, but what would really help is doing what they're good at and actually serving communities throughout Washington, not just cherry picking the most profitable ones. But that's another discussion for another thread, I reckon.

Thanks for that little tidbit about MT and DE. I always thought they were for just people in SEA going to Europe. As mentioned before, EAT-SFO may happen soon, and I think YKM-SEA will need to be added eventually by DL, but EAT and ALW seem like AS territory. Speaking of AS, does anyone think that SEA will see some love with the 30 new markets? They could probably push F9 off of CLE, or start DSM on an E175, but there's not too many other markets that are obvious adds, and even those two flights seem iffy.

BA · Sat Aug 12, 2017 1:44 am

I'm curious what the future for BLI is due to the weak Canadian dollar and PAE having commercial flights starting next year...

Wingtips56 · Sat Aug 12, 2017 2:10 am

What I haven't seen mentioned in here is that WN started GEG-SMF service in the last week or two. 1 x Daily. Years ago, ExpressJet flew it during their house-branding experiment. QX quickly matched it, but withdrew very shortly after ExpressJet pulled the plug. It had been several years since with no non-stop service. It will be interesting to see if WN can support the route with a 73G now, when there had not previously been a market to support the E145 and Q400.

It seems like an odd route for WN unless they are starting to look at other WA-CA routes too, acing out AS.

dc10lover · Sat Aug 12, 2017 2:24 am

BA wrote:
I'm curious what the future for BLI is due to the weak Canadian dollar and PAE having commercial flights starting next year...

I think a lot of people from Bellingham will drive to Paine Field and fly out from there. Maybe no need to fly Alaska / Horizon from Bellingham to Seattle for connections (anymore). Is this a reality.

By the way, living in Washington State, I bookmarked this thread. I try to keep updated as time goes on.

dc10lover · Sat Aug 12, 2017 2:32 am

Wingtips56 wrote:
What I haven't seen mentioned in here is that WN started GEG-SMF service in the last week or two. 1 x Daily. Years ago, ExpressJet flew it during their house-branding experiment. QX quickly matched it, but withdrew very shortly after ExpressJet pulled the plug. It had been several years since with no non-stop service. It will be interesting to see if WN can support the route with a 73G now, when there had not previously been a market to support the E145 and Q400.

It seems like an odd route for WN unless they are starting to look at other WA-CA routes too, acing out AS.

My Smartphone won't let me post a link but Southwest Airlines said:

Southwest Airlines
Southwest Airlines @SouthwestAir
·
Aug 8
Replying to @cobra478
Hi, Robert. We do have Spokane to Chicago and Spokane to San Diego routes year-round, check it out here: (link: https://www.southwest.com/flight/shortc ... VANCED-AIR) southwest.com/flight/shortcu… ^KR

dc10lover · Sat Aug 12, 2017 2:36 am

dc10lover wrote:
Wingtips56 wrote:
What I haven't seen mentioned in here is that WN started GEG-SMF service in the last week or two. 1 x Daily. Years ago, ExpressJet flew it during their house-branding experiment. QX quickly matched it, but withdrew very shortly after ExpressJet pulled the plug. It had been several years since with no non-stop service. It will be interesting to see if WN can support the route with a 73G now, when there had not previously been a market to support the E145 and Q400.

It seems like an odd route for WN unless they are starting to look at other WA-CA routes too, acing out AS.

My Smartphone won't let me post a link but Southwest Airlines said:

Southwest Airlines
Southwest Airlines @SouthwestAir
·
Aug 8
Replying to @cobra478
Hi, Robert. We do have Spokane to Chicago and Spokane to San Diego routes year-round, check ^KR

717atOGG · Sat Aug 12, 2017 2:37 am

dc10lover wrote:
BA wrote:
I'm curious what the future for BLI is due to the weak Canadian dollar and PAE having commercial flights starting next year...

I think a lot of people from Bellingham will drive to Paine Field and fly out from there. Maybe no need to fly Alaska / Horizon from Bellingham to Seattle for connections (anymore). Is this a reality.

By the way, living in Washington State, I bookmarked this thread. I try to keep updated as time goes on.

Thank you. I'll do the same, living near Tacoma. Honestly, I don't see much of a future other than the token flights to Hawaii and the G4 flights, as well as the SEA and PDX flights for connections. These existing flights look to be sustainable long term, but some new flights that it could probably land would be SFO and/or LAX on AS, with an E175.

n7371f · Sat Aug 12, 2017 2:38 am

Wingtips56 wrote:
What I haven't seen mentioned in here is that WN started GEG-SMF service in the last week or two. 1 x Daily. Years ago, ExpressJet flew it during their house-branding experiment. QX quickly matched it, but withdrew very shortly after ExpressJet pulled the plug. It had been several years since with no non-stop service. It will be interesting to see if WN can support the route with a 73G now, when there had not previously been a market to support the E145 and Q400.

It seems like an odd route for WN unless they are starting to look at other WA-CA routes too, acing out AS.

GEG-SMF has something over 200+ PDEW so there's a market for it. Plus when you add a leg to SoCal out of SMF, you make the route even more attractive.

ExpressJet reported that their GEG-SMF/ONT routes were among their better performers during their branded period. Of course what that means is up for debate.

QX launched GEG-SMF twice I believe. But if you had an option on flying a Q400 that long or connecting via SEA to a mainline jet, what would you do? Not saying that's why it collapsed but anything AS tries out of GEG that's not via SEA or PDX is already immediately cannibalized.

SeaDoo · Sat Aug 12, 2017 2:59 am

7BOEING7 wrote:
717atOGG wrote:
Since UA just announced PAE-SFO and DEN, does anyone have any guesses to which routes AS will add from PAE? And since it's a two gate terminal, does that rule out the possibility of a third airline at PAE? My guess is probably.

I could see AS flying to PHX, SNA, SAN, LAS, SJC and maybe HNL.Since AS and UA would have a total of 18 daily flights there are still 4 slots available -- 22 being the maximum allowable at this time.

I wouldn't be astounded by any of your guesses, but I would not put SNA nor SAN ahead of any of your other predictions. Both SAN and SNA wouldn't be what I would expect AS to chose. Time will tell.

SeaDoo · Sat Aug 12, 2017 3:02 am

tespai wrote:
717atOGG wrote:
dc10lover wrote:
Service is suppose to start Spring 2018.
https://www.flywenatchee.com/bay-area-flight/

They show a UAX E175 and a AS/OO E175. Maybe a foreshadowing of the equipment used? AS could be a contender for EAT-SFO, and it would help its California focus.

I was going to say I highly doubt SFO-EAT service, but perhaps 400k is enough to get a daily or double daily CR2 on UA. I don't think AS/QX would do anything but add a 4th SEA roundtrip.

As for AS PAE flights:

4x PDX
3x SFO
2x LAX
2x GEG
1x PHX
1x LAS
1x HNL or 4x weekly HNL/ 3x weekly OGG

I would guess OGG would be the top choice for PAE-Hawaii on AS. For some reason, I think of HNL as being more of a SEA route than PAE. Perhaps I am influenced by what happened at Bellingham. I think they did just OGG. Maybe it was OGG and HNL. Now Bellingham is just seasonal OGG and KOA.

SeaDoo · Sat Aug 12, 2017 3:06 am

BA wrote:
717atOGG wrote:
Since UA just announced PAE-SFO and DEN, does anyone have any guesses to which routes AS will add from PAE? And since it's a two gate terminal, does that rule out the possibility of a third airline at PAE? My guess is probably.

For AS, all they've said is Oregon and California, so I only see PAE-LAX, PAE-SFO, and PAE-PDX. Since they've said 9 daily flights, it might just be 3 flights to each or something close to that.

You're right that with United in the picture, PAE is up to 15 flights a day. With the two gates, it's designed for 16 flights. I wouldn't be surprised if Alaska snatches the last flight and commits to 10, maybe to do PAE-LAS.

Your predictions wouldn't surprise me, but I think the chances of SFO just got a little smaller with UA's announcement. I also heard talk of GEG, although had I not heard talk of it, I would have been real surprised if they announced it. I think the closest I thought they would fly would be PDX and nothing in else in WA, ID, nor OR.

SeaDoo · Sat Aug 12, 2017 3:28 am

dc10lover wrote:
Serious question. Can Paine Field expand beyond the current design. Only 2 Gates? Come on! This Airport will be strictly for O&D traffic. They should build it so it has at least 5 Gates. I expect Alaska to use 737's since the airport is restricted to the number of Gates.

I expect at least a double of gates sometime soon (I realize the terminal isn't even built yet.) I wonder if that will result in another lengthy environmental impact statement. Admittedly this is something I know next to nothing about, but it amazes me that PAE had to do an EIS for a two gate terminal and 20 some flights. It seems like a waste of resources. I can see why some people think their is too much red tape. PAE has to do this, but the environmental destruction from our ever growing population wipes out forest in this part of the country.

SeaDoo · Sat Aug 12, 2017 3:34 am

BA wrote:
I'm curious what the future for BLI is due to the weak Canadian dollar and PAE having commercial flights starting next year...

It seems like the future was real rosy for a bit. AS adding service to Hawaii and Las Vegas, plus the Allegiant flights. I think Allegiant flights are down, but someone feel free to correct. Now AS just has the QX flights and seasonal AS to OGG, KOA and SEA (per wikipedia.) I expect with the CAD and PAE, not a lot of adds coming to BLI anytime soon.

BA · Sat Aug 12, 2017 4:01 am

SeaDoo wrote:
I expect at least a double of gates sometime soon (I realize the terminal isn't even built yet.) I wonder if that will result in another lengthy environmental impact statement. Admittedly this is something I know next to nothing about, but it amazes me that PAE had to do an EIS for a two gate terminal and 20 some flights. It seems like a waste of resources. I can see why some people think their is too much red tape. PAE has to do this, but the environmental destruction from our ever growing population wipes out forest in this part of the country.

There really is not much space around where the terminal is being built. You have the control tower to the left and some private aerospace businesses to the right of the building. The leased boundaries allow at most a 3rd gate to be added, but not more.

Take a look at slide 10 here:
https://snohomishcountywa.gov/DocumentCenter/View/35392

BA · Sat Aug 12, 2017 5:17 pm

IAF and the North Satellite expansion/renovation status updates here:

http://www.portseattle.org/ABOUT/COMMIS ... _SM_6c.pdf
http://www.portseattle.org/ABOUT/COMMIS ... ttach1.pdf
http://www.portseattle.org/ABOUT/COMMIS ... ttach2.pdf
http://www.portseattle.org/ABOUT/COMMIS ... c_supp.pdf

Looks like both the IAF and North Satellite are on schedule which is good.

717atOGG · Sat Aug 12, 2017 6:20 pm

BA wrote:
IAF and the North Satellite expansion/renovation status updates here:

http://www.portseattle.org/ABOUT/COMMIS ... _SM_6c.pdf
http://www.portseattle.org/ABOUT/COMMIS ... ttach1.pdf
http://www.portseattle.org/ABOUT/COMMIS ... ttach2.pdf
http://www.portseattle.org/ABOUT/COMMIS ... c_supp.pdf

Looks like both the IAF and North Satellite are on schedule which is good.

That's good. I think that the North Satellite 8-gate expansion could allow AS to move out of Concourse D, which could allow other airlines to move in there. Maybe move over UA, F9, and SY, and then DL shares A with Xiamen and NK and shares B with WN. Just an idea. It would also allow DL to have less domestic flights out of S, because it seems like kind of a waste to have a CR9 or a E175 parked at what is essentially our international terminal.

SANFan · Sat Aug 12, 2017 7:26 pm

Wingtips56 wrote:
What I haven't seen mentioned in here is that WN started GEG-SMF service in the last week or two. 1 x Daily. Years ago, ExpressJet flew it during their house-branding experiment. QX quickly matched it, but withdrew very shortly after ExpressJet pulled the plug. It had been several years since with no non-stop service. It will be interesting to see if WN can support the route with a 73G now, when there had not previously been a market to support the E145 and Q400.

It seems like an odd route for WN unless they are starting to look at other WA-CA routes too, acing out AS.

Exactly the same scenario with SAN-GEG. I personally think the WN 737 is also too large an a/c for SAN-GEG and am waiting desperately for AAG to jump back on the route with the perfect-sized EMJ. I have been hoping that AAG would be able to start SAN-GEG before WN re-started their 'seasonal' offering in the market -- so far, no luck. QX has served SAN-GEG 2 or 3 times over the years and today the traffic in the market is just about the same as SAN-BOI, which AAG has served steadily now for the last 4 years...

I expect that with AAG's CA/SAN expansion, SAN-GEG is a natural and I just hope it'll be sooner rather than later!

dc10lover wrote:
My Smartphone won't let me post a link but Southwest Airlines said:

Southwest Airlines
Southwest Airlines @SouthwestAir
·
Aug 8
Replying to @cobra478
Hi, Robert. We do have Spokane to Chicago and Spokane to San Diego routes year-round, check it out here: (link: https://www.southwest.com/flight/shortc ... VANCED-AIR) southwest.com/flight/shortcu… ^KR

Just for clarification, "Routes year-round", yes. Nonstop service year-round, no.
The SAN-GEG-MDW r/t last operates on Labor Day (Sept 4) and as of yet, is not scheduled to return anytime during WN's open booking window. Both NONSTOP routes are, at this time, seasonal!

bb

SANFan · Sat Aug 12, 2017 9:13 pm

Concerning PAE service, which has been discussed on several other threads already over the last several months, I would bet that more than 2 gates at the terminal, including remote hard stands or any other attempts to circumvent the 2-gate plan, just isn't going to happen. As has been mentioned earlier up-thread, the NIMBYs will be watching all of this commercial air service like hawks and I actually remain surprised that even the current development was able to be approved.

Both gates will handle 737s so I'm betting AAG will make use of lots of those in their expected 9-flight schedule. OR and CA have been specifically mentioned by AS in their pressers as the expected destinations from Paine Field.

That says to me there will be something like 3x daily to PDX, 2x daily to both LAX and SFO, and once daily to both SJC and SAN. These flights will be a mixture of mainline and EMJ equipment. This sked connects AAG's new operation at Paine with all of their Lower-48 hubs and focus cities (excluding SEA of course.) And no, I do NOT see the company wasting a flight or 2 on PAE-SEA.

I see no reason for service to Vegas, PHX, Hawaii, etc., given the very limited opportunities the cx has at the airport. I expect AAG will be catering to business travelers (including costing) and would not waste any resources on more leisure, lower yielding, markets. That being said, I'm sure they would love to add more flights and destinations should the chance ever arise.

With UA's very recent announcement, I wonder if we could hear more detailed plans about AAG's planned service at PAE earlier than previously expected?

bb

717atOGG · Sat Aug 12, 2017 9:34 pm

SANFan wrote:
Concerning PAE service, which has been discussed on several other threads already over the last several months, I would bet that more than 2 gates at the terminal, including remote hard stands or any other attempts to circumvent the 2-gate plan, just isn't going to happen. As has been mentioned earlier up-thread, the NIMBYs will be watching all of this commercial air service like hawks and I actually remain surprised that even the current development was able to be approved.

Both gates will handle 737s so I'm betting AAG will make use of lots of those in their expected 9-flight schedule. OR and CA have been specifically mentioned by AS in their pressers as the expected destinations from Paine Field.

That says to me there will be something like 3x daily to PDX, 2x daily to both LAX and SFO, and once daily to both SJC and SAN. These flights will be a mixture of mainline and EMJ equipment. This sked connects AAG's new operation at Paine with all of their Lower-48 hubs and focus cities (excluding SEA of course.) And no, I do NOT see the company wasting a flight or 2 on PAE-SEA.

I see no reason for service to Vegas, PHX, Hawaii, etc., given the very limited opportunities the cx has at the airport. I expect AAG will be catering to business travelers (including costing) and would not waste any resources on more leisure, lower yielding, markets. That being said, I'm sure they would love to add more flights and destinations should the chance ever arise.

With UA's very recent announcement, I wonder if we could hear more detailed plans about AAG's planned service at PAE earlier than previously expected?

bb

That sounds correct. My guess is EMJs to PDX, SJC, and SAN, and 737s to SFO and LAX. AS has their schedule loaded through early July next year, so we should expect the tickets to go on sale in November or December for this new service. An announcement is probably coming in the next few weeks. I don't think that AS will move up their announcement, but I do think they should announce the service well in advance so it can be hyped and advertised.

SANFan · Sat Aug 12, 2017 10:18 pm

717atOGG wrote:
That sounds correct. My guess is EMJs to PDX, SJC, and SAN, and 737s to SFO and LAX. AS has their schedule loaded through early July next year, so we should expect the tickets to go on sale in November or December for this new service. An announcement is probably coming in the next few weeks. I don't think that AS will move up their announcement, but I do think they should announce the service well in advance so it can be hyped and advertised.

Yes, AAG will have to balance frequency vs capacity (and the very limited total number of departures they have) with their a/c selections.

I was just thinking that there seems to be no clear 'rules' about how many cx, or exactly how many flights will be 'allowed' -- the management of this entire air terminal seems very, um, nonexistent -- so the more details/specifics AS and UA announce now, perhaps the less likely that 3 more cx come a knockin' on PAE's door? Maybe I've missed something here. But UA has apparently said 3 daily flts to DEN and 3 more to SFO -- pretty specific. That's 6 daily departures accounted for .

Has it ever been announced (by whom?) that this whole deal is first-come, first-served? You snooze, you loose? Are the cx themselves supposed to "work it out" to make sure PAE doesn't end up with 5 cx each wanting to fly 10x a day from the airport? Only 2 gates, that's ok, we'll just use a big shoehorn!

In any case, I think it's time AAG does the same as UA and makes their presence definite.

Note: AAG has schedules going into July 2018 but they are not complete or finalized, just mostly ghost schedules, place-holders at this time. This has been a few crazy months and it hasn't been very apparent that their skeds are even finalized through this December yet. IMO, things at AAG have been rather hard to track, where normally, it's very easy to tell when things are locked and loaded. (Understandable but still difficult to keep track of.)

bb

n7371f · Sun Aug 13, 2017 4:26 am

SANFan wrote:
Wingtips56 wrote:
What I haven't seen mentioned in here is that WN started GEG-SMF service in the last week or two. 1 x Daily. Years ago, ExpressJet flew it during their house-branding experiment. QX quickly matched it, but withdrew very shortly after ExpressJet pulled the plug. It had been several years since with no non-stop service. It will be interesting to see if WN can support the route with a 73G now, when there had not previously been a market to support the E145 and Q400.

It seems like an odd route for WN unless they are starting to look at other WA-CA routes too, acing out AS.

Exactly the same scenario with SAN-GEG. I personally think the WN 737 is also too large an a/c for SAN-GEG and am waiting desperately for AAG to jump back on the route with the perfect-sized EMJ. I have been hoping that AAG would be able to start SAN-GEG before WN re-started their 'seasonal' offering in the market -- so far, no luck. QX has served SAN-GEG 2 or 3 times over the years and today the traffic in the market is just about the same as SAN-BOI, which AAG has served steadily now for the last 4 years...

I expect that with AAG's CA/SAN expansion, SAN-GEG is a natural and I just hope it'll be sooner rather than later!

dc10lover wrote:
My Smartphone won't let me post a link but Southwest Airlines said:

Southwest Airlines
Southwest Airlines @SouthwestAir
·
Aug 8
Replying to @cobra478
Hi, Robert. We do have Spokane to Chicago and Spokane to San Diego routes year-round, check it out here: (link: https://www.southwest.com/flight/shortc ... VANCED-AIR) southwest.com/flight/shortcu… ^KR

Just for clarification, "Routes year-round", yes. Nonstop service year-round, no.
The SAN-GEG-MDW r/t last operates on Labor Day (Sept 4) and as of yet, is not scheduled to return anytime during WN's open booking window. Both NONSTOP routes are, at this time, seasonal!

bb

As I wrote previously regarding AS on GEG-CA routes, anything they add immediately cannibalizes their GEG-SEA/PDX even BOI routes. And until AS sees a significant shit in traffic via those connecting points, they're not going to add anything out of GEG. That said there are certainly seasonal markets (thanks to Coeur D'Alene & Sandpoint) where some routes would work into GEG but AS has never been much of a seasonal operator when compared to the other majors.

wedgetail737 · Sun Aug 13, 2017 4:36 am

717atOGG wrote:
BA wrote:
IAF and the North Satellite expansion/renovation status updates here:

http://www.portseattle.org/ABOUT/COMMIS ... _SM_6c.pdf
http://www.portseattle.org/ABOUT/COMMIS ... ttach1.pdf
http://www.portseattle.org/ABOUT/COMMIS ... ttach2.pdf
http://www.portseattle.org/ABOUT/COMMIS ... c_supp.pdf

Looks like both the IAF and North Satellite are on schedule which is good.

That's good. I think that the North Satellite 8-gate expansion could allow AS to move out of Concourse D, which could allow other airlines to move in there. Maybe move over UA, F9, and SY, and then DL shares A with Xiamen and NK and shares B with WN. Just an idea. It would also allow DL to have less domestic flights out of S, because it seems like kind of a waste to have a CR9 or a E175 parked at what is essentially our international terminal.

I doubt we'll see UA move to Alaska's/American's side of the airport. If anything, maybe NK will move over to D permenantly with a couple of gates. I guess there would be an outside chance that F9 and SY would move over. But my guess is that AS will not only have the luxury of 8 new gates in the N-Concourse, but they won't leave the D-concourse; not while AS is in expansion mode. When the airline industry starts following the back side of the cycle, then maybe.AS will give up D-gates.

717atOGG · Sun Aug 13, 2017 5:21 am

wedgetail737 wrote:
717atOGG wrote:
BA wrote:
IAF and the North Satellite expansion/renovation status updates here:

http://www.portseattle.org/ABOUT/COMMIS ... _SM_6c.pdf
http://www.portseattle.org/ABOUT/COMMIS ... ttach1.pdf
http://www.portseattle.org/ABOUT/COMMIS ... ttach2.pdf
http://www.portseattle.org/ABOUT/COMMIS ... c_supp.pdf

Looks like both the IAF and North Satellite are on schedule which is good.

That's good. I think that the North Satellite 8-gate expansion could allow AS to move out of Concourse D, which could allow other airlines to move in there. Maybe move over UA, F9, and SY, and then DL shares A with Xiamen and NK and shares B with WN. Just an idea. It would also allow DL to have less domestic flights out of S, because it seems like kind of a waste to have a CR9 or a E175 parked at what is essentially our international terminal.

I doubt we'll see UA move to Alaska's/American's side of the airport. If anything, maybe NK will move over to D permenantly with a couple of gates. I guess there would be an outside chance that F9 and SY would move over. But my guess is that AS will not only have the luxury of 8 new gates in the N-Concourse, but they won't leave the D-concourse; not while AS is in expansion mode. When the airline industry starts following the back side of the cycle, then maybe.AS will give up D-gates.

Ok, that seems fair. I do think that at least NK and F9 could move over, since NK has only ~7 flights a day during the summer, and F9 will only have 3/4 flights, which wouldn't be difficult to accommodate. SY can stay at A, I think, since it's only 2 flights a day. After I posted about UA moving to D I remembered that SEA gets the 753 from United sometimes, which probably couldn't fit at D because it's a tight fit between D and N IIRC, so it's probably logical that they stay at A. By the way, although it's not official, I think that the gates for DL follow this pattern for flights: B is for RJ's, A is for mainline narrowbodies, one or two intl flights, and the shuttle to LAX/SFO, and S is for hub to hub and most intl flights.

BA · Sun Aug 13, 2017 5:42 am

Honestly speaking, Sea-Tac for many practical purposes has become a common use gate system airport. A bunch of the gates are equipped with CUTE for this reason.

Just last month, I flew out on AA from the South Satellite. That's right, AA which is supposedly based in Concourse D, had a flight out of the South Satellite.

Not only that, but Alaska Airlines had a plane at the end of Concourse B surrounded by other Delta jets at the time.

As the airport continues to suffer from a severe shortage of gates, we're going to see more and more flights operating out of other areas of the airport. Dedicated airline gates is not a luxury the airport can afford to offer at the moment.

SANFan · Sun Aug 13, 2017 7:54 am

n7371f wrote:
As I wrote previously regarding AS on GEG-CA routes, anything they add immediately cannibalizes their GEG-SEA/PDX even BOI routes. And until AS sees a significant shift in traffic via those connecting points, they're not going to add anything out of GEG. That said there are certainly seasonal markets (thanks to Coeur D'Alene & Sandpoint) where some routes would work into GEG but AS has never been much of a seasonal operator when compared to the other majors.

And I will continue to disagree with you. I see GEG-CA getting at least 3 nonstop routes in 2018 as part of AS's CA-expansion -- LA and SAN would be the most expected, with probably a Bay Area flight as well, to maybe SJC or SFO, and/or even SMF.

I would also look at your statement from a different angle: there is lots of local traffic from both SEA and PDX to AAG's CA hubs/focus cities and offering direct flights from GEG (and BOI, etc.) to those CA cities will actually free up more capacity for the O&D pax between SEA/PDX and CA! From my point of view, why tie up a SEA-SAN seat with a diluted connecting pax from GEG to SAN when AS can offer a nonstop seat from GEG to SAN, while making that GEG-SAN pax happier in the process?

The pax traffic is there to support nonstop GEG-SAN: ave for 2016 according to DOT (Table 6) shows O&D traffic as 113 PDEW. Perfect market for the EMJ. (Heck, WN is now serving the market with a 737!)

bb

717atOGG · Sun Aug 13, 2017 4:38 pm

BA wrote:
Honestly speaking, Sea-Tac for many practical purposes has become a common use gate system airport. A bunch of the gates are equipped with CUTE for this reason.

Just last month, I flew out on AA from the South Satellite. That's right, AA which is supposedly based in Concourse D, had a flight out of the South Satellite.

Not only that, but Alaska Airlines had a plane at the end of Concourse B surrounded by other Delta jets at the time.

As the airport continues to suffer from a severe shortage of gates, we're going to see more and more flights operating out of other areas of the airport. Dedicated airline gates is not a luxury the airport can afford to offer at the moment.

Wow. I thought AA just flew out of D. I knew that AS uses gates on A occasionally, but I didn't know they used B. The gate situation seems pretty bad. All of a sudden, the expansion projects seem more urgent. It seems likely now that MT and D8 might have to use Concourse A for departures because S is so busy at the hours they fly in and out.

BA · Sun Aug 13, 2017 5:26 pm

717atOGG wrote:
BA wrote:
Honestly speaking, Sea-Tac for many practical purposes has become a common use gate system airport. A bunch of the gates are equipped with CUTE for this reason.

Just last month, I flew out on AA from the South Satellite. That's right, AA which is supposedly based in Concourse D, had a flight out of the South Satellite.

Not only that, but Alaska Airlines had a plane at the end of Concourse B surrounded by other Delta jets at the time.

As the airport continues to suffer from a severe shortage of gates, we're going to see more and more flights operating out of other areas of the airport. Dedicated airline gates is not a luxury the airport can afford to offer at the moment.

Wow. I thought AA just flew out of D. I knew that AS uses gates on A occasionally, but I didn't know they used B. The gate situation seems pretty bad. All of a sudden, the expansion projects seem more urgent. It seems likely now that MT and D8 might have to use Concourse A for departures because S is so busy at the hours they fly in and out.

When the IAF is complete, Concourse A will regularly be used for international arrivals and departures. DL also has international departures from Concourse A. It's just that all international arrivals (except preclearance of course), have to arrive at the South Satellite to unload passengers to go through immigration and customs. They then get towed to Concourse A if needed for departures. When the IAF is complete, there will be international flights that arrive and depart from Concourse A.

Gate shortages are going to be an issue at Sea-Tac for many years. There will soon be 10 buses to transport passengers to/from airplanes.

jplatts · Sun Aug 13, 2017 5:59 pm

Will Delta add nonstop service from SEA to GUM? Guam does not have any nonstop service to the contiguous U.S., and SEA is the closest airport in the contiguous U.S. to GUM that can handle SEA-GUM nonstop flights. Is there enough demand for nonstop service from the contiguous U.S. to Guam?

717atOGG · Sun Aug 13, 2017 6:50 pm

jplatts wrote:
Will Delta add nonstop service from SEA to GUM? Guam does not have any nonstop service to the contiguous U.S., and SEA is the closest airport in the contiguous U.S. to GUM that can handle SEA-GUM nonstop flights. Is there enough demand for nonstop service from the contiguous U.S. to Guam?

No. Too low-yielding, very little demand, and any demand can be flowed through HNL.

dc10lover · Sun Aug 13, 2017 7:00 pm

I also believe it is best to use Paine Field for business travelers and not for leisure. No flights to Hawaii. GEG draws a lot of people from nearby Tri - Cities and the Tri - Cities population is about 200,000 people - maybe more. Simply drive to GEG then fly non - stop to 17 Cities with connections all throughout California, the USA and all over the World.

iamlucky13 · Mon Aug 14, 2017 12:04 am

BA wrote:
dc10lover wrote:
Serious question. Can Paine Field expand beyond the current design. Only 2 Gates? Come on! This Airport will be strictly for O&D traffic. They should build it so it has at least 5 Gates. I expect Alaska to use 737's since the airport is restricted to the number of Gates.

With the footprint they're working with, they can maybe add a 3rd gate, but no more. The space is not ideal for anything larger.

I think if they're clever about it, they can fit 4 gates total. If they do some rework with the first floor of the control tower, I think they can then dogleg to the north around the tower, in which case there's room for 8-10 gates total before they run up against the fence to Boeing's property.

But even expanding to 4 gates will take time. They will face a legal challenge, which will necessitate a new environmental assessment, and quite a bit of time spent in court. If and when a strong enough demand to justify more gates is proven out, it will then be several more years before all the legal hurdles are cleared.

BA wrote:
717atOGG wrote:
I don't know where the terminal will be located at Paine Field, so I can't tell if there would be room for additional gates.

Off 100th St SW next to the control tower.

Here's a composite graphic I made and have shared elsewhere showing the location based on Google aerial imagery and the architectural drawings from their grading permit, which provide good scale references from nearby buildings to align to. Ignore the WN liveries and the jetways on the wrong sides of the aircraft - I made some concessions for convenience. The building design has changed moderately since they submitted the grading permit, but I don't expect the general layout has changed.

iamlucky13 · Mon Aug 14, 2017 12:30 am

SANFan wrote:
Concerning PAE service, which has been discussed on several other threads already over the last several months, I would bet that more than 2 gates at the terminal, including remote hard stands or any other attempts to circumvent the 2-gate plan, just isn't going to happen. As has been mentioned earlier up-thread, the NIMBYs will be watching all of this commercial air service like hawks and I actually remain surprised that even the current development was able to be approved.

I'm not surprised. The opponents never had much of a real case. The environmental assessment left them with no real legal grounds to prevent up to 20-something flights per day, and I never had much expectation they would have trouble showing that given the current activity level for Boeing and the maintenance operators, plus the relatively large commercial and industrial zoned land buffers that PAE has.

I expect some expansion will happen, but slowly.

SANFan wrote:
I see no reason for service to Vegas, PHX, Hawaii, etc., given the very limited opportunities the cx has at the airport. I expect AAG will be catering to business travelers (including costing) and would not waste any resources on more leisure, lower yielding, markets. That being said, I'm sure they would love to add more flights and destinations should the chance ever arise.

http://www.whidbeynewstimes.com/busines ... t-in-2018/
"'It will be a mix of leisure and business destinations,' Sprague said. " (Alaska Air VP of external relations)

Or perhaps some with decent demand for both. LAS is potentially both a business and leisure destination due to the frequency they host conventions and trade shows. HNL is less so, but Navy personnel and contractors headed to Pearl Harbor from Naval Station Everett or Whidbey NAS have to drive right past PAE to get to SEA.

717atOGG · Mon Aug 14, 2017 12:36 am

I've found the load factors for some of the foreign airlines that serve SEA, so here they are.
ANA: 75% in February, average of 79% for 2016.
Asiana: 85% in February, average of 84% for 2016.
British Airways: 79% in February, average of 82% for 2016.
Condor: 65% in February, average of 84% for 2016. This was the first year that this route was year-round.
Emirates: 59% in February, average of 70% for 2016.
EVA Air: 75% in February, average of 87% for 2016.
Hainan: 71% in February, average of 83% for 2016.
Icelandair: 80% in February, average of 86% for 2016.
Korean Air: 71% in February, average of 72% for 2016.
Lufthansa: 58% in February, average of 74% for 2016.
Volaris: 80.3% in February. The route had an 84% load factor for its first year, which is pretty good.
Note that February is one of the slowest months for airline travel, which is why I added the average from last year. Unfortunately I was unable to get Xiamen Air's load factor to SZX, if someone could find that out I'd appreciate it.

SeaDoo · Mon Aug 14, 2017 12:48 am

Does anyone know how many car parking stalls PAE will have?

iamlucky13 · Mon Aug 14, 2017 1:28 am

SeaDoo wrote:
Does anyone know how many car parking stalls PAE will have?

570, according to the local paper:
http://www.heraldnet.com/news/paine-fie ... ng-permit/

This includes the employee and rental car parking area, I believe.

Assuming 500,000 passengers per year, this is significantly more parking per passenger than the 13,000 stalls at SEA, but I don't know how it compares if including the private parking companies around SeaTac.

frmrCapCadet · Mon Aug 14, 2017 2:28 am

In the long haul, Everett will carry about 10% of the traffic of SeaTac. As such it will provide an important service and relief for an airport which has no room for much more expansion. Bremerton's airport probably has more empty space than any other in the region. While I cannot see it expanding, the region probably should be buying and reserving land around the airport. Just in case.

717atOGG · Mon Aug 14, 2017 4:00 am

frmrCapCadet wrote:
In the long haul, Everett will carry about 10% of the traffic of SeaTac. As such it will provide an important service and relief for an airport which has no room for much more expansion. Bremerton's airport probably has more empty space than any other in the region. While I cannot see it expanding, the region probably should be buying and reserving land around the airport. Just in case.

Probably not 10%. More like 2%. SEA has 45 million passengers a year, and we're talking about a terminal with 15 daily flights and ~500k passengers annually. Won't put a dent in SEA's traffic, it'll only siphon some passengers off living in or around Everett. I live near Bremerton's airport (PWT) and it's a pipe dream of mine to have Allegiant or Alaska/Horizon to serve the airport, but it'd require serious planning, advertising, and modification of the airport itself. One problem is population. Adding up the population of Kitsap County, you get about 265,000 people that would have driving to PWT more convenient. For a daily Q400, for example, you would have 152 seats to fill, which might be difficult, hence the need for advertising. The airport does have land around it, but it has a road nearby and very narrow taxiways, plus not much room to park a plane and build a terminal. It has a 6,000 foot runway which should be sufficient, but there looks to be room to extend it. There is a second runway that has been shut down and is used as a drag strip, which can be bought out, and probably should. Here's a picture of the runway and said obstacles around it:
Screenshot 2017-08-13 at 8.53.20 PM by coolian03, on Flickr
Overall, it's another solution, but it has more obstacles than PAE did and can only support 1 or 2 gates IMO, and looks to be ~10+ years away.

SeaDoo · Mon Aug 14, 2017 4:03 am

iamlucky13 wrote:
SeaDoo wrote:
Does anyone know how many car parking stalls PAE will have?

570, according to the local paper:
http://www.heraldnet.com/news/paine-fie ... ng-permit/

This includes the employee and rental car parking area, I believe.

Assuming 500,000 passengers per year, this is significantly more parking per passenger than the 13,000 stalls at SEA, but I don't know how it compares if including the private parking companies around SeaTac.

Thanks.

I have no idea what a good number is. I would have thought that 570 wasn't very many, but I see the comparison to SEA. I would guess lots of people to SEA take the bus, get a ride, take mass transit or park off site. I wonder how people will get to PAE. I am assuming with only 570 stalls the parking will be pay parking.

BA · Mon Aug 14, 2017 4:50 am

SeaDoo wrote:
iamlucky13 wrote:
SeaDoo wrote:
Does anyone know how many car parking stalls PAE will have?

570, according to the local paper:
http://www.heraldnet.com/news/paine-fie ... ng-permit/

This includes the employee and rental car parking area, I believe.

Assuming 500,000 passengers per year, this is significantly more parking per passenger than the 13,000 stalls at SEA, but I don't know how it compares if including the private parking companies around SeaTac.

Thanks.

I have no idea what a good number is. I would have thought that 570 wasn't very many, but I see the comparison to SEA. I would guess lots of people to SEA take the bus, get a ride, take mass transit or park off site. I wonder how people will get to PAE. I am assuming with only 570 stalls the parking will be pay parking.

Presumably Everett Transit will serve the terminal as they requested that Propeller Airports (the developers of the terminal) incorporate a bus stop in the design and they agreed to do so:
https://snohomishcountywa.gov/DocumentCenter/View/40159

Besides paying to park, many I'm sure will get dropped off or take Uber/Lyft.

QXAS · Mon Aug 14, 2017 6:17 am

717atOGG wrote:
frmrCapCadet wrote:
In the long haul, Everett will carry about 10% of the traffic of SeaTac. As such it will provide an important service and relief for an airport which has no room for much more expansion. Bremerton's airport probably has more empty space than any other in the region. While I cannot see it expanding, the region probably should be buying and reserving land around the airport. Just in case.

Probably not 10%. More like 2%. SEA has 45 million passengers a year, and we're talking about a terminal with 15 daily flights and ~500k passengers annually. Won't put a dent in SEA's traffic, it'll only siphon some passengers off living in or around Everett. I live near Bremerton's airport (PWT) and it's a pipe dream of mine to have Allegiant or Alaska/Horizon to serve the airport, but it'd require serious planning, advertising, and modification of the airport itself. One problem is population. Adding up the population of Kitsap County, you get about 265,000 people that would have driving to PWT more convenient. For a daily Q400, for example, you would have 152 seats to fill, which might be difficult, hence the need for advertising. The airport does have land around it, but it has a road nearby and very narrow taxiways, plus not much room to park a plane and build a terminal. It has a 6,000 foot runway which should be sufficient, but there looks to be room to extend it. There is a second runway that has been shut down and is used as a drag strip, which can be bought out, and probably should. Here's a picture of the runway and said obstacles around it:
Screenshot 2017-08-13 at 8.53.20 PM by coolian03, on Flickr
Overall, it's another solution, but it has more obstacles than PAE did and can only support 1 or 2 gates IMO, and looks to be ~10+ years away.

With I-5 so slow constantly it would likely be a better alternative for Jefferson, Mason, and Clallam county residents as well. An additional 160,000 people. I would love to see PWT get air service. How long of a flight assuming a Q400 and at what altitude would a flight from PWT to SEA be? From Bremerton travel time would be a difference of 1 hour from Winslow about 10 minutes. And from Kingston a difference of 25 minutes. (Times were calculated by google maps and the WSF ferry schedule estimated crossing times). Jefferson and Clallam counties would have the same driving difference as Kingston. Well close enough for government work that is. I think it could work. Problem is infrastructure at PWT. Kitsap county is only growing.

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