USAOZ
Posts: 45
Joined: Fri Jul 28, 2017 4:34 am

Re: Qantas Opps for America and beyond

Mon Jul 31, 2017 12:37 am

qf789 wrote:
USAOZ wrote:
smi0006 wrote:

I'm not sure much more capacity is needed into Hawaii. JQ,QF,HA, NZ to an extent have the routes covered. I could perhaps see HA add MEL at some point. Otherwise it's a leisure route with a lot of people burning their points to fly JQ or QF. As a hub for mainland flights it's a bit of a pain having to collect and recheck your bags so 'early' into the journey ex-AU. From a personal preference I'd rather get he long sector over and done with wake up with a coffee and then move to a shorter one. Equally reversed short journey ex-US before a sleep on the long flight home. Especially as we see QF &a NZ expand into ORD/IAH/DFW linking the smaller AU port - PER/ADL/CBR I can't see HNL being competitive for stop overs.
Costwise, there would be no weight restricted flights, even with high density seating HNL/Australia. Could possibly even do HNL/ADL. For some strange reason Australians like stopping in Hawaii. Thought our beaches are much better & HA have no competition HNL/BNE. Who wants to fly via SYD or even worse AKL. Don't even think BNE/AKL/HNL would connect.


DFW-SYD is really the only flight that suffers a significant penalty. You also need to take other things into account for a flight to be costwise such as airport costs, landing fees, cleaning, catering etc and would expect it would be less attractive to offer a stop in HNL. HNL is also a leisure market and you wouldn't want to tie up your aircraft, especially those that are configured for a significant number of premium passengers on such a market, it would just be a waste. The other thing to take in account with HNL that the market between HNL and Australia is not attractive as a few years ago when the US and Australian dollar where on parity, today markets in Asia are much more attractive.
huh ? Australia/HNL is booming. Just look at the fares from SYD to HNL in late December/early Jan. It costs more to fly to HNL than LAX, SFO or DFW !!! & for Americans going HNL/SYD they get USD$1 = AUD$1.26 at present & it should be noted that OZ prices for everything includes all taxes.

Saw an example the other day, that due to competition, skiing in Colorado is now cheaper for Australians with exchange rate at AUD$1 = USD$0.80 than when AUD$1 = USD$1.10

So trying to say USA is more expensive for Australians now, due to exchange rate is simplistic & not actually correct,the opposite is true.

How ? Competition. American resorts love Australians cos they stay 2-3 weeks, where the average stay by Americans is 3-4 nights.
 
qf789
Crew
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Re: Qantas Opps for America and beyond

Mon Jul 31, 2017 4:54 am

USAOZ wrote:
huh ? Australia/HNL is booming. Just look at the fares from SYD to HNL in late December/early Jan. It costs more to fly to HNL than LAX, SFO or DFW !!! & for Americans going HNL/SYD they get USD$1 = AUD$1.26 at present & it should be noted that OZ prices for everything includes all taxes.

Saw an example the other day, that due to competition, skiing in Colorado is now cheaper for Australians with exchange rate at AUD$1 = USD$0.80 than when AUD$1 = USD$1.10

So trying to say USA is more expensive for Australians now, due to exchange rate is simplistic & not actually correct,the opposite is true.

How ? Competition. American resorts love Australians cos they stay 2-3 weeks, where the average stay by Americans is 3-4 nights.


The Australia to HNL market is not booming. Its fallen 3% this year compared to 2016 (JAN-MAY), Qantas has seen the US market fall by 3% this year. Fares to HNL are typical more than mainland US year round. This is because there is more capacity to mainland US compared to HNL, its called supply and demand. We are seeing the same thing with MEL-PER-LHR vs MEL-DXB-LHR where operating the 789 vs the A388 is seeing less capacity available at a higher price.

Secondly I never said USA is more expensive for Australia's, I said HNL (not USA) was not as attractive to leisure travellers due to the fall in the AUD and this was one of the reasons why JQ pulled HNL-BNE in favour of routes in Asia.

http://www.smh.com.au/business/aviation ... naq8r.html
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USAOZ
Posts: 45
Joined: Fri Jul 28, 2017 4:34 am

Re: Qantas Opps for America and beyond

Mon Jul 31, 2017 10:44 pm

qf789 wrote:
USAOZ wrote:
huh ? Australia/HNL is booming. Just look at the fares from SYD to HNL in late December/early Jan. It costs more to fly to HNL than LAX, SFO or DFW !!! & for Americans going HNL/SYD they get USD$1 = AUD$1.26 at present & it should be noted that OZ prices for everything includes all taxes.

Saw an example the other day, that due to competition, skiing in Colorado is now cheaper for Australians with exchange rate at AUD$1 = USD$0.80 than when AUD$1 = USD$1.10

So trying to say USA is more expensive for Australians now, due to exchange rate is simplistic & not actually correct,the opposite is true.

How ? Competition. American resorts love Australians cos they stay 2-3 weeks, where the average stay by Americans is 3-4 nights.


The Australia to HNL market is not booming. Its fallen 3% this year compared to 2016 (JAN-MAY), Qantas has seen the US market fall by 3% this year. Fares to HNL are typical more than mainland US year round. This is because there is more capacity to mainland US compared to HNL, its called supply and demand. We are seeing the same thing with MEL-PER-LHR vs MEL-DXB-LHR where operating the 789 vs the A388 is seeing less capacity available at a higher price.

Secondly I never said USA is more expensive for Australia's, I said HNL (not USA) was not as attractive to leisure travellers due to the fall in the AUD and this was one of the reasons why JQ pulled HNL-BNE in favour of routes in Asia.

http://www.smh.com.au/business/aviation ... naq8r.html
Sorry meant to say Hawaii is booming for Australians in peak periods, like long Xmas school holidays. Many schools now have 2 months holiday from end of Nov to end of Jan. Fares eg. SYD/HNL are very high. Much higher than SYD/LAX, SYD/SFO or SYD/DFW. Many people simply won't fly Jetstar long haul. The AUD$ is rising not falling. The current 80 cents is highest it's been in 2+ years plus hotels/tour operators, who pitch their deals at Australians adjust their prices to suit price points in AUD$.
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: Qantas Opportunities for America and beyond

Mon Jul 31, 2017 11:22 pm

AntonioMartin wrote:
Well....aside from British Airways we have no connections to Asia and you have to go through Europe. There are many Asians in Phoenix. Also we have no connections to Oceania except on Hawaiian through Honolulu.

What on Earth are you talking about?

PHX has 1stop same-airline service to every major destination in East Asia.... on a half-dozen airlines: AA, DL, UA, AC, BA, and HA. Triple that, if you count partner interchanges.

Similar for all four of eastern Oceania's primary gateways


boeing777200lr wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:
AN was planning PHX, thanks for the laugh. Would never have happened let alone worked.

They used be partners with America West back in the day and bought some stock in the airline I believe. planned before 9/11 happened.

Well considering that they went out of business only 2 days after 9/11... one would hope that it was planned before. :razz:

But yeah, true story or not: there's not a chance in hell that that ever would've actually come to fruition.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
AntonioMartin
Posts: 102
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Re: Qantas Opportunities for America and beyond

Tue Aug 01, 2017 6:15 am

LAX772LR wrote:
AntonioMartin wrote:
Well....aside from British Airways we have no connections to Asia and you have to go through Europe. There are many Asians in Phoenix. Also we have no connections to Oceania except on Hawaiian through Honolulu.

What on Earth are you talking about?

PHX has 1stop same-airline service to every major destination in East Asia.... on a half-dozen airlines: AA, DL, UA, AC, BA, and HA. Triple that, if you count partner interchanges.

Similar for all four of eastern Oceania's primary gateways


Oh yeah, you're right! :banghead:

I just want PHX to get more international metal at our airport...
 
redroo
Posts: 163
Joined: Tue Jun 07, 2016 10:28 pm

Re: Qantas Opportunities for America and beyond

Tue Aug 01, 2017 6:55 am

The US is a tricky one for QF

Firstly they need to cover LAX SFO and DFW from SYD MEL and BNE. That's mostly in place bar a few gaps.

Then where to next. JFK and ORD are next logical places but I can't see a MEL or BNE JFK flight or ORD flight. So prob just sticking with SYD JFK and maybe SYD ORD.

Then where to next? Vancouver year round but between AC and QF they probably have that covered.

Most of the places would want to go are covered or are on the other side of the USA and in the realms of UULH eg BOS IAD MIA etc.

In theory they could do a BNE DFW BOS and make use of a 787 during the day instead of sitting around in DFW. But I'm not sure the pax or yield is there.
 
HM7
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Re: Qantas Opportunities for America and beyond

Sun Aug 13, 2017 5:18 am

qf789 wrote:
eamondzhang wrote:
smi0006 wrote:

I would say QF will balance PER-LAX between BNE and MEL. They will still want to retrain high yielding LHR pax from MEL.

I think PER-BNE-LAX will be same plan also. Could the second batch of 4 manage PER-CDG-PER-LAX-JFK-LAX-BNE-PER? Or would that require 6 frames? If BNE-LAX occurs what's the likely hood of BNE-DFW over MEL-DFW?

If the proposed CDG-PER-LAX-JFK return schedule is similar to LHR-PER-MEL-LAX then no it needs 5 planes at least - the ground time at LAX won't be sufficient to make a return trip to JFK, nor the timing as well (it will probably arrive into LAX in the mid-day, which for SYD/MEL originated customers it would mean a 6+ hr layover).


CDG-PER-BNE-LAX would be doable with 4 frames, that's with a daily BNE-LAX and 6 weekly PER-CDG (bare in mind under the current bilateral only 6 weekly can be operated). A couple of issues with it running this way would be BNE-LAX would need to be pushed back to an evening departure and secondly the LAX tag would effectively need to be done from either QF11/12 or QF93/94 A388 service which I'm not sure would be a good idea.


So would Qantas have to end LAX-JFK-LAX given the timing with 4 frames? I figured they'd keep the 744 on the BNE-LAX-JFK route until they ordered more 789s and use the remaining 4 789 frames on a CDG-PER-BNE-DFW route.
 
redroo
Posts: 163
Joined: Tue Jun 07, 2016 10:28 pm

Re: Qantas Opportunities for America and beyond

Sun Aug 13, 2017 5:51 am

The JFK route isn't going anywhere, what may change over time is where the aircraft originates from.

They use the 747 on the route because the A380 is too large. They did use the A330 for a while (AKL-LAX-JFK) but found that it didnt have enough business seats. The current 787s are pretty J heavy so would be perfect for the route. It also doesn't make sense to single jumbo flying in an out of Brisbane. It may not happen with the first batch, but JFK will eventually become 787 for QF.
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: Qantas Opportunities for America and beyond

Sun Aug 13, 2017 6:23 am

redroo wrote:
The JFK route isn't going anywhere, what may change over time is where the aircraft originates from.

They use the 747 on the route because the A380 is too large. They did use the A330 for a while (AKL-LAX-JFK) but found that it didnt have enough business seats. The current 787s are pretty J heavy so would be perfect for the route. It also doesn't make sense to single jumbo flying in an out of Brisbane. It may not happen with the first batch, but JFK will eventually become 787 for QF.


Surely it was more that AKL-LAX was dropped than not enough J seats?! I did read they did the numbers on an A332 BNE-LAX but it would have required a big payload hit.
 
HM7
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Re: Qantas Opportunities for America and beyond

Sun Aug 13, 2017 8:16 am

QF doesn't use the A380 on the JFK route because the BA terminal at JFK has no A380 gates. However I still agree there isn't enough demand for it.

While the 789 is optimal for that route, QF can't do it with 4 frames if they want to serve CDG. The question is what eastbound route will they run. Is there enough demand dfw or will it replace an old 744 route, like SYD-SCL.
Last edited by HM7 on Sun Aug 13, 2017 8:45 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
smi0006
Posts: 1297
Joined: Wed Jan 16, 2008 7:45 am

Re: Qantas Opportunities for America and beyond

Sun Aug 13, 2017 8:20 am

I think we will get clarity when QF annoucne their results (when is this?). They have brought forward all their 789 deliveries, and I expect they will exercise more. Given many will be delivered mid calendar year 18, it's coming into lead time to announce the new routes, and any destinations. Perhaps a further 8? 4 more in a premium config and 4 in a new denser config for Asia and JNB/SCL/YVR. Maybe even some 10s for Asia - NRT,HKG,SIN?
I also hope we hear about where the 380s will end up
 
qf789
Crew
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Re: Qantas Opportunities for America and beyond

Sun Aug 13, 2017 8:40 am

smi0006 wrote:
I think we will get clarity when QF annoucne their results (when is this?). They have brought forward all their 789 deliveries, and I expect they will exercise more. Given many will be delivered mid calendar year 18, it's coming into lead time to announce the new routes, and any destinations. Perhaps a further 8? 4 more in a premium config and 4 in a new denser config for Asia and JNB/SCL/YVR. Maybe even some 10s for Asia - NRT,HKG,SIN?
I also hope we hear about where the 380s will end up


Results are announced 25th August
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soectre99
Posts: 14
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Re: Qantas Opportunities for America and beyond

Sun Aug 13, 2017 11:19 am

I definitely see YVR as a year-round route from SYD. Would create direct competition with AC and lets face it, Australians love canada (specifically BC).

ORD also, surely this is due to happen.

I don't think a direct 789 SYD-JFK service is necessary due to the current efficient system of feeder routes MEL, SYD & BRI via LAX.

Would be nice to eventually see a PER-LAX 789 service, though this is a big ask.
 
qf789
Crew
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Re: Qantas Opportunities for America and beyond

Sun Aug 13, 2017 11:44 am

soectre99 wrote:
I definitely see YVR as a year-round route from SYD. Would create direct competition with AC and lets face it, Australians love canada (specifically BC).

ORD also, surely this is due to happen.

I don't think a direct 789 SYD-JFK service is necessary due to the current efficient system of feeder routes MEL, SYD & BRI via LAX.

Would be nice to eventually see a PER-LAX 789 service, though this is a big ask.



SYD-JFK will either be a 777X or A359ULR, a 789 does not have the range

ORD is questionable with a 789 and a 777X or A359ULR is needed

PER-LAX is slightly longer than SYD-ORD so again 777X or A359ULR is required
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Gemuser
Posts: 4555
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Re: Qantas Opportunities for America and beyond

Sun Aug 13, 2017 2:27 pm

HM7 wrote:
QF doesn't use the A380 on the JFK route because the BA terminal at JFK has no A380 gates. However I still agree there isn't enough demand for it.

While the 789 is optimal for that route, QF can't do it with 4 frames if they want to serve CDG. The question is what eastbound route will they run. Is there enough demand dfw or will it replace an old 744 route, like SYD-SCL.

AFAIK QF does NOT have approval for EDTO > 180 min [if anybody knows any different please share]. given the time it takes to get it and it will be CASA's first >180 approval, you can expect them to be very conservative if they even actually approve it. So it will b 2019 at the earliest and I would suggest 2021-2 as more likely. That rules SCL & probably JNB out for the next 3-4 years, with twins.
If a second eastbound route is required [not convinced but possibly] my money would be on MEL-DFW give the QF B787s will be MEL based.

Gemuser
 
sunrisevalley
Posts: 5373
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Re: Qantas Opportunities for America and beyond

Sun Aug 13, 2017 3:22 pm

I agree. Based on what has been said to date, QF will not need EDTO>180 for the 789 till they start MEL-DFW, . How long such an application might take? I Know this probably should not considered a guide, but NZ needed 5 months to get AKL-EZE approval.
 
redroo
Posts: 163
Joined: Tue Jun 07, 2016 10:28 pm

Re: Qantas Opportunities for America and beyond

Sun Aug 13, 2017 10:24 pm

Re the A330 on the JFK route. At the time QF did a right route right sized plane initiative and the A330 was thought more suitable for JFK due to the low number of PAX. It turned out that there were lots of complaints from regulars that it was very difficult to get a J seat on the Friday and Sunday flights in and out of JFK (peak flights). At the time my QF contact said they realised the mistake and switched back to the jumbo to give more J seats to keep those very high fare paying passengers a QF one stop to JFK. The AKL was the collateral damage, not the other way round.
 
redroo
Posts: 163
Joined: Tue Jun 07, 2016 10:28 pm

Re: Qantas Opportunities for America and beyond

Sun Aug 13, 2017 10:26 pm

Would love PER LAX but in all honesty it makes more sense for us sand gropers to connect on the east coast. In the same way it makes sense for west coasters to connect in PER for Paris, Frankfurt and London (until we get a non stop from SYD LHR).

Wish QF would do PER JNB. There is a huge Saffa population here that hates flying South African.
 
travaz
Posts: 385
Joined: Wed Jun 13, 2001 1:03 am

Re: Qantas Opportunities for America and beyond

Mon Aug 14, 2017 12:09 am

AntonioMartin wrote:
As my local airport, I'd love to see Qantas or Qantas Freight-or Jetstar for that matter-at Phoenix Sky Harbor.

Reasons for that happening?

Well....aside from British Airways we have no connections to Asia and you have to go through Europe. There are many Asians in Phoenix. Also we have no connections to Oceania except on Hawaiian through Honolulu.

Phoenix has a program where any international airline that adds new service will have free landings and advertisement for the first year. Already paying off with Condor starting flights in 2018.

Phoenix is a One World hub with American and British Airways...specially American could feed Qantas planes with passengers from other markets.

Reasons for that not happening?

Phoenix is..well, Phoenix. We are lagging behind San Francisco, Las Vegas, Denver, (to a lesser extent) Dallas, Houston, Seattle and ESPECIALLY Los Angeles, when it comes down to business and to population. (well population not in Las Vegas, Denver or Dallas' case but)

American fills Qantas' planes ar Dallas and LAX with passengers from Phoenix..

There is not too much business interests between Arizona and Australia.

I'd be happy if ANY international airline started flying to Phoenix and am happy about Condor, but QF here is not likely to happen.

But I can always dream...


I used to travel PHX Asia 6 to 8 times a year. I would have loved to have gone Non-Stop. Having said that I really never found the short PHX-LAX flight much of a bother. Would always go J on the Asia leg but go Y PHX -LAX because it was so short. I really don't see anyone doing non stop Asia flight from PHX. Why would they siphon traffic off their LA flight. But I can dream also !
 
Gemuser
Posts: 4555
Joined: Mon Nov 24, 2003 12:07 pm

Re: Qantas Opportunities for America and beyond

Mon Aug 14, 2017 4:14 am

sunrisevalley wrote:
I agree. Based on what has been said to date, QF will not need EDTO>180 for the 789 till they start MEL-DFW, . How long such an application might take? I Know this probably should not considered a guide, but NZ needed 5 months to get AKL-EZE approval.

Hugh, does SCL or JNB require EDTO 330 or will 240 suffice? If 330 is needed does not the applying carrier require some time at 240, or do I have that wrong?
As far as time goes my opinion is that if CAA took 5 months CASA will need, at least, 18 months and I would not put money on it being that short. As I have stated before I will beleive CASA has approved >180 one months after commercial operations commence, that need that approval.

Gemuser

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