DfwRevolution wrote:OneSexyL1011 wrote:It would be impossible to operate these flights year round with this aircraft and not block off a tremendous amount of seats, or not do a technical stop with the current NG 737 fleet. This airplane already is at its absolute maximum limits with these flights and the more I think about it the more it terrifies me. These are way too close for comfort.
Copa has been flying their 737-800s on routes up to 2,900 nm for more than a decade.
Per the information above, Norwegian is blocking-off about 30 seats. So whether blocking 15% of the seats counts as a "tremendous amount of seats" is pretty subjective.
People were debating whether or not these routes will last year-round and the answer is a resounding no.
It isn't always about mileage. In Copa's case, North-South routes are completely different than west-east. They do not have to fight with strong direct headwinds on westerly courses, especially ones associated with the jet stream that is common over the north Atlantic which can reach speeds of 200kts headwind. They cant deviate too far north around it, or below it either. The 737 simply does not have the fuel capacity to make a westbound journey without having sufficient fuel in order to make the trip non-stop. It’s impossible without blocking a tremendous number of seats which would make it a money loser no matter what. If they have to block 30 seats in the summer you will have to double that number in the winter.
30 seats no matter how you slice it is 30 seats out of revenue service. In the winter time that number would have to go to 50-60 against those head winds. I don't care what Norwegian does. Its cost prohibitive.
I am not even going to mention the variations of fuel density that’s common among EU stations. Ideally the 737 can hold 46000 pounds of fuel, but some days that maybe limited to only 44900 pounds depending on the density. Now you're even more stretched thin, landing at your destination with less than 4500 pounds on a 737 is really, REALLY pushing it, unless you remove payload and thus my original point above.
There is good reason why you RARELY see EU to the US on 737's in the summer and NEVER see them in the winter. When you do see them, it’s in a all Y or F configuration or BBJ's.
If UAL and AA can’t fly the 737's from BOS to LAX, or LAX to HNL in the winter sometimes without a fuel stop, what makes you think anyone is capable of doing it in the north Atlantic? The 738 is a capable aircraft, but only under highly ideal conditions. There is very little margin or buffer performance wise once you start getting past the 5 to 5.5-hour mark. Anything beyond that starts to exponentially degrade performance wise.