Oakland (OAK) has always been a bit of an oddity...due to its close proximity to SFO (and, to a lesser extent, SJC), it has always served as more of a leisure travel airport than business travel airport (and has been far more susceptible to industry downturns as a result). It has four European carriers, but the "Big 3" US carriers only fly a combined 11 flights per day (sometimes fewer), with UA operating zero. SWA, of course, thrives there, and Alaska and Hawaiian both have fairly large presences, along with smaller presences from Spirit, Jetblue, Allegiant, and Volaris (and don't forget about Botique). However, the airport certainly has a very interesting mix of airlines for being ranked 36th in passenger enplanements in 2016 (between AUS and MSY). You could certainly compare it to MDW, DAL, or HOU in some ways, but the airport is still pretty unique. All that said, the question here is:

1. What do you think will be the next domestic market to be served non-stop from OAK (not including EAS routes like MCE)?
2. Along those lines, what are the routes with the most passenger demand from OAK that do not currently have non-stop service?

-Minneapolis? It's certainly strange that the airport has non-stop service to Omaha and Detroit (seasonally) but not MSP. While Delta seems unlikely to serve this route, could SWA or even Sun Country pick it up (the latter by switching their flights from SFO)?
-Orlando? Definitely a big leisure destination, and with up to 5 flights per day from SFO-MCO, you would think there would be at least one 737/A320 worth of passengers coming from the East Bay every day (although the airport used this logic to secure a flight to EWR, and it's only seasonal).
-Philadelphia? The only one of the four major population centers in the NE not served non-stop from Oakland, although Boston has only been operating seasonally.
-Anything else?

Southwest could add nonstop service to TPA nonstop from OAK. The only nonstop service between the San Francisco Bay Area and TPA is on United Airlines out of SFO, and SFO-TPA is one of the largest markets in the contiguous United States that only has nonstop service on only 1 legacy carrier.

Other destinations that Southwest could add nonstop service out of OAK include San Antonio, Indianapolis, Cincinnati, Cleveland, Charlotte, Washington-Dulles, Philadelphia, Orlando, Ft. Myers, and Ft. Lauderdale.

I hope WN will move into more transcon markets as they take more Maxes and add red eye flying (OAK-EWR year round, OAK-BOS, OAK-PHL, etc. OAK-JFK?). OAK will be a likely focus there in addition to whenever Hawaii starts. The legacies have shown no inclination to increase service after slashing it in the recession. Same with Alaska for that matter. I don't think they've added anything since LIH in the depths of the recession in 2010. So I'm not going to hold my breath for any significant increases aside from continued incremental growth from WN, DY and the various ULCC carriers.

Five year update for the Port of Oakland board available at this link https://portofoakland.legistar.com/View ... 637B2CF340

Highlights:

• Airport growing faster than expected, will pass 13 mil this year.
• Finishing international arrivals expansion this fall.
• Restriping ramp areas for larger WN planes.
• Working to increase seating capacity in T2 (much needed).
• Runway repaving happening in Sept. (looking forward to North Field action)
• RFP coming for new hotel at entrance across Doolittle from Hilton
• RFP coming for F&B operator
• Airfield capacity sufficient for the foreseeable future
• Possible increase in commercial traffic at North Field may require construction of new ARFF station
• Priorities are unserved markets (MSP, MCO, CLT) and underserved (NY, BOS, WAS); also Canada, Asia and South America
• "HIGH PRIORITY: Attention to Aging, Bustling Terminal Facilities"

jplatts wrote:

Other destinations that Southwest could add nonstop service out of OAK include San Antonio, Indianapolis, Cincinnati, Cleveland, Charlotte, Washington-Dulles, Philadelphia, Orlando, Ft. Myers, and Ft. Lauderdale.

Lots of things could happen. Some on your list aren't very probable.

Looking at today's ops from IAD, for example, WN doesn't go anywhere west of DEN. There are only two WN BWI-OAK, and by flights BWI is Southwest's 3rd-largest op, with 25x the flight count from IAD. From RSW, WN goes nowhere west of STL.

ucdtim17 wrote:

I hope WN will move into more transcon markets as they take more Maxes and add red eye flying (OAK-EWR year round, OAK-BOS, OAK-PHL, etc. OAK-JFK?). OAK will be a likely focus there in addition to whenever Hawaii starts. The legacies have shown no inclination to increase service after slashing it in the recession. Same with Alaska for that matter. I don't think they've added anything since LIH in the depths of the recession in 2010. So I'm not going to hold my breath for any significant increases aside from continued incremental growth from WN, DY and the various ULCC carriers.

I hope for some of the same but don't have much hope for many more transcons from WN. Although if Hawaii does happen, perhaps that could help OAK get some greater east-west connectivity.
As for the ULCCs, NK seems to be the most open-minded to transcon service and to a lesser extent F9 (they rely heavily on DEN for east-west connectivity). I could see NK entering some of your markets before WN does honestly.

I'm too lazy to check myself, but pretty sure AA doesn't fly OAK-DFW. That would seem like a no-brainer. Granted they do fly OAK-PHX but DFW shouldn't be hard to fill from OAK. But I'm just the airchair CEO.

I always thought G4 had better potential to grow at OAK to more than just the ten year round and seasonal markets they have now. I thought the success of OMA-OAK would bring about more similar markets and city pairs.

loisencroach wrote:

I always thought G4 had better potential to grow at OAK to more than just the ten year round and seasonal markets they have now. I thought the success of OMA-OAK would bring about more similar markets and city pairs.

I can see MEM/OAK doing well for G4.

9w748capt wrote:

I'm too lazy to check myself, but pretty sure AA doesn't fly OAK-DFW. That would seem like a no-brainer. Granted they do fly OAK-PHX but DFW shouldn't be hard to fill from OAK. But I'm just the airchair CEO.

AA did previously have nonstop service to OAK from its main DFW hub, but discontinued DFW-OAK nonstop flights on September 3, 2008. Spirit Airlines does serve to DFW nonstop from OAK and Southwest Airlines does serve DAL nonstop from OAK. In addition, DAL also has nonstop service out of SFO by both Southwest and Virgin America and out of SJC on Southwest, DFW also has nonstop service out of SFO by both American and United and out of SJC by American, and Alaska Airlines will be adding nonstop service to DAL from SJC on February 16, 2018.

9w748capt wrote:

I'm too lazy to check myself, but pretty sure AA doesn't fly OAK-DFW. That would seem like a no-brainer. Granted they do fly OAK-PHX but DFW shouldn't be hard to fill from OAK. But I'm just the airchair CEO.

OAK is a bit of an odd market for AA. AA seems to be happy with the current PHX routings they have. It used to be 5xCR9 and then switched to all Mainline, then a mix and then back to all Mainline. Realistically, a DFW midday flight would probably work but may require AA to downgrade the midday PHX departure back to a CR9.

MIflyer12 wrote:

Looking at today's ops from IAD, for example, WN doesn't go anywhere west of DEN. There are only two WN BWI-OAK, and by flights BWI is Southwest's 3rd-largest op, with 25x the flight count from IAD.

Southwest did previously have nonstop service from IAD to destinations west of DEN as Southwest previously served LAS and SAN nonstop from IAD, but has since discontinued nonstop service from IAD to these 2 destinations. There is significant demand for flights from IAD to the San Francisco Bay Area as San Francisco is one of the top destinations from IAD and as there are over 500,000 passengers year who flew on flights between IAD and SFO in the last 12 months. There might be enough demand for Southwest to serve IAD nonstop from OAK with the significant demand for flights to the San Francisco Bay Area out of IAD, with perimeter restrictions at DCA that prevent Southwest from serving OAK nonstop from DCA, and with IAD being almost 60 miles from BWI.

I always thought OAK-DFW on an a319S would be a reasonable routing. It'd be convenient for any AA flyers whose airport of choice is Oakland and open up a lot of service to the East that isn't already served by PHX.

I think the facilities at Oakland let it down. If they expanded the terminal and offered user friendly international-domestic facility they would attract more business including high yielding traffic and perhaps a major Delta or AA. They have a decent runway to boot and a BART connection.

NZ321 wrote:

I think the facilities at Oakland let it down. If they expanded the terminal and offered user friendly international-domestic facility they would attract more business including high yielding traffic and perhaps a major Delta or AA. They have a decent runway to boot and a BART connection.

They are in the process of a big remodel of the intl section...

flyfresno wrote:

Oakland (OAK) has always been a bit of an oddity...due to its close proximity to SFO (and, to a lesser extent, SJC), it has always served as more of a leisure travel airport than business travel airport (and has been far more susceptible to industry downturns as a result). It has four European carriers, but the "Big 3" US carriers only fly a combined 11 flights per day (sometimes fewer), with UA operating zero. SWA, of course, thrives there, and Alaska and Hawaiian both have fairly large presences, along with smaller presences from Spirit, Jetblue, Allegiant, and Volaris (and don't forget about Botique). However, the airport certainly has a very interesting mix of airlines for being ranked 36th in passenger enplanements in 2016 (between AUS and MSY). You could certainly compare it to MDW, DAL, or HOU in some ways, but the airport is still pretty unique. All that said, the question here is:

1. What do you think will be the next domestic market to be served non-stop from OAK (not including EAS routes like MCE)?
2. Along those lines, what are the routes with the most passenger demand from OAK that do not currently have non-stop service?

-Minneapolis? It's certainly strange that the airport has non-stop service to Omaha and Detroit (seasonally) but not MSP. While Delta seems unlikely to serve this route, could SWA or even Sun Country pick it up (the latter by switching their flights from SFO)?
-Orlando? Definitely a big leisure destination, and with up to 5 flights per day from SFO-MCO, you would think there would be at least one 737/A320 worth of passengers coming from the East Bay every day (although the airport used this logic to secure a flight to EWR, and it's only seasonal).
-Philadelphia? The only one of the four major population centers in the NE not served non-stop from Oakland, although Boston has only been operating seasonally.
-Anything else?

If Southwest added MSP-OAK which is under 1600 miles with a once daily flight, I'm sure Delta will respond and add service, maybe with more frequency ERJ service. With ATL-OAK, which is atleast 500 miles longer, WN has a single flight, while DL focuses on ATL-SFO frequency, however. I think the significantly shorter distance, and Southwest's weaker position in MSP than ATL, changes the economics that Delta would run MSP-OAK as long as Southwest flies the route.

I don't see Southwest adding PHL-OAK, as Southwest is small in PHL, really doesn't like doing transcons, and can get some PHL based fliers to use BWI. I think MCO-OAK and FLL-OAK, albeit also transcons, have higher likelihood being added from Southwest than PHL.

phluser wrote:

flyfresno wrote:

Oakland (OAK) has always been a bit of an oddity...due to its close proximity to SFO (and, to a lesser extent, SJC), it has always served as more of a leisure travel airport than business travel airport (and has been far more susceptible to industry downturns as a result). It has four European carriers, but the "Big 3" US carriers only fly a combined 11 flights per day (sometimes fewer), with UA operating zero. SWA, of course, thrives there, and Alaska and Hawaiian both have fairly large presences, along with smaller presences from Spirit, Jetblue, Allegiant, and Volaris (and don't forget about Botique). However, the airport certainly has a very interesting mix of airlines for being ranked 36th in passenger enplanements in 2016 (between AUS and MSY). You could certainly compare it to MDW, DAL, or HOU in some ways, but the airport is still pretty unique. All that said, the question here is:

1. What do you think will be the next domestic market to be served non-stop from OAK (not including EAS routes like MCE)?
2. Along those lines, what are the routes with the most passenger demand from OAK that do not currently have non-stop service?

-Minneapolis? It's certainly strange that the airport has non-stop service to Omaha and Detroit (seasonally) but not MSP. While Delta seems unlikely to serve this route, could SWA or even Sun Country pick it up (the latter by switching their flights from SFO)?
-Orlando? Definitely a big leisure destination, and with up to 5 flights per day from SFO-MCO, you would think there would be at least one 737/A320 worth of passengers coming from the East Bay every day (although the airport used this logic to secure a flight to EWR, and it's only seasonal).
-Philadelphia? The only one of the four major population centers in the NE not served non-stop from Oakland, although Boston has only been operating seasonally.
-Anything else?

If Southwest added MSP-OAK which is under 1600 miles with a once daily flight, I'm sure Delta will respond and add service, maybe with more frequency ERJ service. With ATL-OAK, which is atleast 500 miles longer, WN has a single flight, while DL focuses on ATL-SFO frequency, however. I think the significantly shorter distance, and Southwest's weaker position in MSP than ATL, changes the economics that Delta would run MSP-OAK as long as Southwest flies the route.

I don't see Southwest adding PHL-OAK, as Southwest is small in PHL, really doesn't like doing transcons, and can get some PHL based fliers to use BWI. I think MCO-OAK and FLL-OAK, albeit also transcons, have higher likelihood being added from Southwest than PHL.

I believe that SWA added ATL in response to Delta adding the route (Delta operates it seasonally). As for MSP, I think you are right in relation to the C Series in the future or maybe even MD now, but Delta doesn't really fly those sorts of ultra-long legs in the E175 like UA does. I believe it would be their longest connection route by about 100 miles (MSP-YVR and SLC-MSY/GDL/PVR were the longest I could find).

I always thought UA's decision to leave OAK was very shortsighted. They had served Oakland since Amelia Earhart days, and had a history of firsts and innovations there that had left a mark on the industry. They chose not to compete with Southwest and I understand the reasoning, but they could have differentiated their product to attract a slightly different profile of travelers that WN. The same management group decided to bail out of JFK also, a short term solution to a long term problem. Oh well, once you're gone you're gone. Bye-bye SFO-OAK-RNO-EKO-ELY-SLC-DEN.

zone6 wrote:

I always thought UA's decision to leave OAK was very shortsighted. They had served Oakland since Amelia Earhart days, and had a history of firsts and innovations there that had left a mark on the industry. They chose not to compete with Southwest and I understand the reasoning, but they could have differentiated their product to attract a slightly different profile of travelers that WN. The same management group decided to bail out of JFK also, a short term solution to a long term problem. Oh well, once you're gone you're gone. Bye-bye SFO-OAK-RNO-EKO-ELY-SLC-DEN.

It's a slightly different relationship, but they only serve 2/3 airports in NYC too. I think flying 2X per day to DEN just didn't make sense anymore, and with all the possibilities (including non-stop destinations) across the bay in SFO, many people are willing to travel what can be an hour more by car or slightly longer by BART to SFO to get more departure time and non-stop options and/or save time in the air by not connecting. If UA came back, perhaps they would do LAX to capture the day-trippers from/to SoCal who do want to save time (the same way that BUR is heavy on SFO for UA), but that route is pretty saturated already.

flyfresno wrote:

I believe that SWA added ATL in response to Delta adding the route (Delta operates it seasonally).

If we go back, FL originally serviced ATL-SFO, that SWA inherited. However, SW cut service and then deleted the route. No explanation was given, but I think it was steer some connections through DAL-SFO (a route that got high priority from SW) and because of limited gate space at SFO. At that time that ATL-SFO was deleted, WN provided ATL a token OAK flight. DL must have been pleased in a way that SW was off of ATL-SFO.

phluser wrote:

I don't see Southwest adding PHL-OAK, as Southwest is small in PHL, really doesn't like doing transcons, and can get some PHL based fliers to use BWI. I think MCO-OAK and FLL-OAK, albeit also transcons, have higher likelihood being added from Southwest than PHL.

Of note, WN has flown OAK-PHL in the past. Early 2000s I believe? When they were trying to build up PHL

SFO...j/k...does anyone here remember when United used to fly the 737 between Oakland and SFO? It was the world's shortest airline route on mainline jets according to the Guinness book of world records circa 1989-1990..5 minutes each way..