Well, thread 56 was over a year old, so, I think now is a better time than any to start a new one.

To recap old thread's highlights towards the end:

-Thomas Cook announce Seattle for summer 2018
-new airline Air Arabia Maroc to start Agadir this winter
-Manchester finally has a link to Seville thanks to Ryanair
-Lufthansa increased Frankfurt to 5 daily
-American to send the B787 to Manchester once more next summer
-Hainan Airlines increased Beijing to daily, plan to start Guangzhou and have sent a B787-9 Kung Fu panda to MAN
-Cathay Pacific to go daily this December.

---------------------------

To kick off thread 57:

-Thomas Cook to base an additional A330 next summer, increases to Punta Cana, Las Vegas and Boston. Seattle and Santa Clara new for 2018 so far, possibly 2 more routes to come.

Let the fun continue.

How many A330s will TCX have based at MAN now?

I'm hoping that Thomas Cook announces MAN-TPA for Summer 2018.

Thomas Cook will have 8 A330 based next summer.

Currently, there is more than enough room to fit a Tampa and San Diego route into the schedules. There are still some flights in the timetable yet to be made bookable, so there is time.

I was under the impression employees in Tampa were expecting an announcement about Thomas Cook soon?

User001 wrote:

Thomas Cook will have 8 A330 based next summer.

Currently, there is more than enough room to fit a Tampa and San Diego route into the schedules. There are still some flights in the timetable yet to be made bookable, so there is time.

I was under the impression employees in Tampa were expecting an announcement about Thomas Cook soon?

A local plane spotter recently met some TPA employees and was told to expect Thomas Cook and Norwegian soon.

It's great to hear folks in the US keen for a route to "non-London" UK. From MANs perspective, it's great to see and something you'd never have heard about a year or two ago.

TCX are building up and impressive and sustainable route network in the USA. They are certainly putting pressure on VS and, presumably, limiting their ambitions at MAN.

I just wonder when TCX will look seriously at CPT - another Condor destination which seems to be the template.

Work "officially" starts on the TP

http://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/ ... r-13362256

I just wonder when TCX will look seriously at CPT - another Condor destination which seems to be the template.

TCX are already flying CPT from LGW in the winter season. There are also full charter flights from MAN this winter also.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W-kVHtXl324

New fly through of the new MAN

Interesting in this there are only two new piers. T1 still seems to be in situ and it doesn't look as though the T2 current checkin area is getting a refresh!

How is SQ's MAN-IAH doing? My son and his family took it the other day and said it was about 70% IAH-MAN and 55% MAN-IAH (with only 6 in J). I would like to see the route stick around as it is great for both cities and makes me visiting family in Bradford easy.

Liverpoola380 wrote:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W-kVHtXl324

New fly through of the new MAN

Interesting in this there are only two new piers. T1 still seems to be in situ and it doesn't look as though the T2 current checkin area is getting a refresh!

Wow moving walkways to gates! What a wonderful thing MAN will finally have, oh wait

The pier thing surprised me too. But I believe the plan eventually is c pier will be remodelled and joined to t2? Got to say it will be a HUGE improvement.

Are they still going to build on the area where the RVP sits at the moment?

Hope they don't build on the RVP... they have a good set up going there and helps keep the airport spotter friendly... I was there yesterday for the Aviation fair and it seems to be doing a roaring trade...

What would the plan be if they were to build on the RVP? and would the RVP be relocated?

If so a good spot would be over the other side at the grassy hill at the start of Runway 2... I frequent that spot a lot as well as the RVP at Manchester

Credit to User_001 via F4A:

TCX will increase their San Fransisco flights to 3 weekly next summer, with flights on a Tue/Thu/Sun.

This means with Los Angeles being on a Mon/Wed/Sat, Thomas Cook now serve the west coast 6 days a week.

----------------------

TCX are parking their tanks on VS's lawn, and trying to sew up the entire west coast market from MAN. I expect LAX to increase to 4x weekly for next summer.

Long term plan for the RVP is on the southside.

LH543 operated by A340 D-AIFC just diverted in.

Rail link news... Southport is set to lose it's link to the airprot from May next year and the link to the Lake District is to go 4 times daily.

The Thomas Cook schedule to the USA is looking robust now for the summer period:

New York JFK Daily
Boston 4 weekly (5 weekly in June)
Orlando 9 weekly (2 flights Sat/Sun)
Miami 2 weekly
Seattle 2 weekly
Las Vegas 5 weekly
Los Angeles 3 weekly
San Fransisco 3 weekly

Still persistent rumours of 2 weekly Tampa and 2 weekly San Diego, there are gaps for those routes and the 3rd San Fransisco was only added into the timetable yesterday so they are still adding flights.

As an aside, they also serve the following other TATL routes:

Santa Clara 1 weekly
Varadero 1 weekly
Cayo Coco 1 weekly
Holguin 2 weekly
Punta Cana 3 weekly
Cancun 6 weekly.

This was already discussed previously but hoping Thomas Cook announces TPA.

MT also has JFK as year round...3 weekly during the winter. Do they have plans on putting in a true J product on their A332s?

They have mentioned plans of adding a business class product to their Manchester operations, but no definate timescale was given.

The CAA's June stats up and running. Few highlights:

Emirates increased passenger numbers to 62307 despite less capacity. Loads 68% ish?
Oman averaged 108 per flight to carry 6400 passenger
Qatar down 13% to under 20000
Etihad down 8% to under 27000.

Collectively, this year's ME4 carried about 2000 passengers more than last year's ME3

Saudia increased numbers by around 300 (Jeddah down by 600 with Riyadh getting nearly 1000)

Singapore almost balanced out! 6632 on the SIN sector and 6199 on the IAH sector
SFO nearly 9500 passengers -->> this comes in at 214 per flight and BOS got over 10000 passengers ->> around 220 per flight?

Cathay up almost 11% to 11400. 259 per flight or 72.5% loads
Hainan up 25% to nearly 7200. 163 per flight

Royal Air Maroc had 1453 passengers or 55 per flight. Slightly on the low side for my liking.

Thanks for the figures. I was only saying the other day there isn't half some wide body traffic at MAN now. Slow month to be expected for the ME airlines. I travelled a few years back in June and could have had two full rows to myself. I suspect EK used the opportunity to do some A380 checks hence why we had the 77W for a short while. Was EY down due to an A330 ops on more flights? One thing we have to expect now is we have more capacity going East. Hainan, Cathay, Singapore etc as well as stimulating their own demand will all be taking small slices of traffic of Emirates, Etihad and Qatar.

Awaiting with baited breath for more MT expansion. From rumours ive heard (only rumours) MIA may well be going. Very positive loads but the yields are poor. If you search you can find great deals on flights. Rumours of a second daily JFK amongst other destinations.

Any word on Kuwait? I just don't really see them doing well to be honest. Think they'd struggle to last beyond 12-18 months.

Add to that all routes tend to do well on freight. Manchester's freight figures have been up quarter on quarter recently, and Emirates do haul boxes when they have the space.

The unrest in the Middle East together with it being low season on the Kangaroo Route will impact the ME3. Turkish have also been operating widebodies recently, and we are now approaching the Hajj.

As for MT yields, their plus point is they can make money on poor yielding routes. They have decades of charter work behind them and that's not high-paying stuff. If MIA makes good numbers but low fares then it might not matter so much to them as they can make it up on ancillary revenues and lower cost operations. They don't carry legacy airline baggage after all.

Danfearn77 wrote:

Awaiting with baited breath for more MT expansion. From rumours ive heard (only rumours) MIA may well be going. Very positive loads but the yields are poor. If you search you can find great deals on flights. Rumours of a second daily JFK amongst other destinations.

Yes, more baited breath here in SAN as the wait continues for the next U.S. new route announcement!

User001 wrote:

Still persistent rumours of 2 weekly Tampa and 2 weekly San Diego, there are gaps for those routes and the 3rd San Fransisco was only added into the timetable yesterday so they are still adding flights.

Now see, that's what MY baited breath is talking about!!!

(I hope MT doesn't make us wait until September... That'd be a lot of baited breath!)

Fingers, and eyes, crossed....

bb

TK's figures are interesting. 33% fewer flights but only a 17% drop in passenger numbers.
MT's LAS route is now showing 6 weekly for June to September and BOS operating from May 8th to Sept 21st

Be interesting to see what MT do. Agree with User001, they are less susceptible to poorer yields than the legacies, but time will tell with MIA. The rumour circulating are it isn't performing as they would like and may replace it with a second daily JFK some days and another route. We shall see. Whatever they do they are building up a nice collection of USA routes now. Given the state of T1 in the mornings and the fact some flights are holding for stands and the place is at bursting point, I wonder if they will look East to utilise later afternoon flying. BKK anyone? Their lower cost model could work.

David_itl wrote:

Rail link news... Southport is set to lose it's link to the airprot from May next year and the link to the Lake District is to go 4 times daily.

It's because of a major timetable revamp due next May when the Ordsall Chord opens in Manchester. The revamp should have been implemented from December this year, but due to electrification delays here and rolling stock cascade delays also caused by delayed electrification schemes along the GWML, it's been pushed back by 6 months. There will also be services to Bradford at some point amongst other changes, and the result of this is that there's no paths to accommodate a service to Southport, meaning anyone on that route wanting to go to MAN will soon need to change at Wigan (off at Wallgate and walk over the road to North Western), Salford Crescent or Manchester Victoria when the Ordsall Chord opens and TPE's MAN-NE England services get routed that way instead of via Guide Bridge and reverse at Piccadilly at present.

The local rail users group on that line, OPSTA, have kicked off as that also involved routing all Southport services to Manchester Victoria instead of the current arrangement of one tph to Victoria and the other tph to MAN via Piccadilly. They've succeeded in getting Northern to run a few services to Piccadilly in the peaks from May 2018 and the medium-term objective is to campaign for the restoration of an all-day service to Piccadilly, but including MAN is another topic. Despite the station now having 4 platforms for heavy rail use, I'd say it doesn't look promising, especially when you look at how Network Rail tried to prevent Arriva Trains Wales from extending their Llandudno Town-Manchester Piccadilly services to MAN on the ground of "performance concerns". Additionally, TPE have new rolling stock on order that will be longer in length than a single Class 185, so it might not be possible to block one train in a platform with another like you can at present.

Anyway, that's for another thread.

Danfearn77 wrote:

Awaiting with baited breath for more MT expansion. From rumours ive heard (only rumours) MIA may well be going. Very positive loads but the yields are poor. If you search you can find great deals on flights. Rumours of a second daily JFK amongst other destinations.

I had wondered why the other Thomas Cook routes to the US had seen frequency improvements but MIA remained static at 2 flights per week.

That said, I'm also wondering how MT are planning on servicing the new SEA route and increased frequencies. They have 2 A332's leased from Air Tanker that appear to end soon and they're also still using them on a few short-haul rotations. Are they planning on extending the leases of the Air Tanker duo or planning to acquire a few more A330's from somewhere, or are they going to service these new routes by cutting others or exclusively dedicating them to long-haul?

User001 wrote:

They have mentioned plans of adding a business class product to their Manchester operations, but no definate timescale was given.

Wasn't that for the JFK route only or others? If VS loads in Upper Class on the MCO route is anything to go by, there's scope for a small J cabin to do well without losing focus on their bread and butter market.

MT are keeping the air tanker for S18 as that's what the SEA flights are running on.

There will be at least 8 A330 at MAN next summer, 10 in the fleet overall (1 A330 needed in GLA/STN and 1 at LGW).

There is room for some more flights at MAN too with rumours of SAN and/or TPA.

In terms of J class, JFK will be the first recipient but there will be scope for other routes too, LAS being the other prime candidate. However, if TCX do as they say and go after small/medium company business traffic, then it opens other routes with J class such as PIT/MSY etc, like Condor (especially as seen as there seems to be a lot more duplication of DE/MT routes now).

User001 wrote:

MT are keeping the air tanker for S18 as that's what the SEA flights are running on.

There will be at least 8 A330 at MAN next summer, 10 in the fleet overall (1 A330 needed in GLA/STN and 1 at LGW).

There is room for some more flights at MAN too with rumours of SAN and/or TPA.

In terms of J class, JFK will be the first recipient but there will be scope for other routes too, LAS being the other prime candidate. However, if TCX do as they say and go after small/medium company business traffic, then it opens other routes with J class such as PIT/MSY etc, like Condor (especially as seen as there seems to be a lot more duplication of DE/MT routes now).

I can see SAN being a destination that might attract some business travel as well. I'm pretty sure that's one reason LH (mainline) is coming next year -- and DE is leaving? -- is that LH will also appeal to our business travelers. Their service will also be year-round, another clue. Also, Speedbird is apparently doing quite well with front-end travelers on their service here.

I'll go back to waiting patiently for an announcement now, as soon as I bait by breath, that is.

bb

I hadn't realised until recently that IAH publish figures that can be used to assess the overall loads on SQ51/52.

There is a slight discrepancy between the IAH numbers and the UK's CAA numbers which is likely to be because one rotation took off from IAH in May and landed at MAN in June (or vice versa). These are highlighted below.

June 2017

21 rotations, 42 sectors.

IAH-SIN: 3,035 - 72 ave per sector.
MAN-SIN: 6,632 - 158 ave per sector
MAN IAH: 6,199 - 148 ave per sector

Note: IAH figures have IAH-MAN as 141 ave per sector.

This means the following:

SIN-MAN: 230 av per sector, 91% LF
MAN-IAH: 220 av per sector, 87% LG

If you take IAH figures, MAN-IAH is 213 per sector, 84% LF

For comparison, SQ's network average is 80% and the passenger break even load factor is 82.2%.

Compared to when the route was via DME, the MAN-IAH sectors on cargo and passenger show around a 100% improvement (i.e. They have doubled).

All in all, SQ can probably be rather pleased with the decision as this looks to be trending in the right direction overall.

Good to see tcx moving with the times and sniffing out some interesting routes before other airlines get in there. Looks like a great schedule and the reviews of the tcx product look very promising.

June 2017 numbers

Passengers:

Monthly total: 3,031,844
Rolling 12 month: 27,231,037
Percentage change: +7.4%

Cargo:

Monthly total: 12,069 tonnes
Percentage change: +20.6%

DobboDobbo wrote:

I hadn't realised until recently that IAH publish figures that can be used to assess the overall loads on SQ51/52.

There is a slight discrepancy between the IAH numbers and the UK's CAA numbers which is likely to be because one rotation took off from IAH in May and landed at MAN in June (or vice versa). These are highlighted below.

June 2017

21 rotations, 42 sectors.

IAH-SIN: 3,035 - 72 ave per sector.
MAN-SIN: 6,632 - 158 ave per sector
MAN IAH: 6,199 - 148 ave per sector

Note: IAH figures have IAH-MAN as 141 ave per sector.

This means the following:

SIN-MAN: 230 av per sector, 91% LF
MAN-IAH: 220 av per sector, 87% LG

If you take IAH figures, MAN-IAH is 213 per sector, 84% LF

For comparison, SQ's network average is 80% and the passenger break even load factor is 82.2%.

Compared to when the route was via DME, the MAN-IAH sectors on cargo and passenger show around a 100% improvement (i.e. They have doubled).

All in all, SQ can probably be rather pleased with the decision as this looks to be trending in the right direction overall.

Maybe, but it is the summer travel season from US to Uk (and vv), and my guess is yields are quite crappy. I flew it with my son and his family and we paid a little over US$600RT IAH-MAN-IAH in early July. Plane was hardly full and I counted only 4 in J on MAN-IAH. I am sure there was cargo below though.
The winter will be the real test if the MAN stop works or not.

You mean like the winter just gone? The IAH stop swapped from DME to MAN in October, so it's already done a winter.

It'll be interesting to see whether SQ51/52 can continue its recent success on the MAN-IAH sectors into this winter.

It sounds like UA are not being helpful at the IAH end, but there is little to be done about that.

DobboDobbo wrote:

June 2017 numbers

Passengers:

Monthly total: 3,031,844
Rolling 12 month: 27,231,037
Percentage change: +7.4%

Cargo:

Monthly total: 12,069 tonnes
Percentage change: +20.6%

Dobo's post should say July 2017 numbers

Thanks Scottie Dog - I cannot edit or delete that post for some reason!

Read elsewhere that AA are cutting JFK-MAN.... Will BA pick this up? Can't see OneWorld leaving it to VS/DL and MT to share the spoils.

With the rolling passenger numbers at 27million, could 30million be achievable come the end of the year?

Samrnpage wrote:

With the rolling passenger numbers at 27million, could 30million be achievable come the end of the year?

Not by the end of 2017 I don't think.

It may be possible in 2018, but as the post above hints, there may be a slow down of growth over the coming year or two.

Danfearn77 wrote:

Read elsewhere that AA are cutting JFK-MAN.... Will BA pick this up? Can't see OneWorld leaving it to VS/DL and MT to share the spoils.

I agree it would be a surprise to see OW abandon JFK-MAN completely. However, if AA cut the route, I don't see what else BA bring to the table. AAs issues at JFK will also be BAs issues. I don't see an immediate plug from
BA.

I think MAN-NYC will need to be left for VS, TCX and UA for the time being. A good time for these to try and pick up some of AA/BA's market share.

I don't think it is the end of AA/BA at JFK-MAN. AA can focus on PHL and ORD. if they get those right, perhaps JFK will reappear in time, but it will be difficult to reestanlish in what is already a competetive market.

Bump due to old thread being re-activated

To recap the AA news:

ORD is now on the B788 from March
JFK is cut from S18.
PHL remains daily A332.

This means that MAN - NYC area services are:

UA: EWR-MAN - this has been daily B752 for a considerable period. Will they seek to soak up some of AA's lost capacity?
TCX: MAN-JFK - this has been daily A332 in the summer, and TCX are keeping the route at 4x weekly in the winter. They may be chief culprit for AA's demise, might they add a second daily on some days?
VS: MAN-JKF - this is a daily A333 in a (long) summer season, and 4x weekly in winter. I don't see a second daily in summer, but might they extend the summer season.

The good news is that the VS routes to BOS and SFO seem poised to remain on the long summer season (beginning in March). Previously, these routes seemed to be reduced to a shorter summer season.

Good thread so far - I agree with all of the above.
Going to keep a close eye on new route possibilities throughout 2018.
While all positive stuff, TCX routes don't interest me as a consumer.

MANMatthew wrote:

Good thread so far - I agree with all of the above.
Going to keep a close eye on new route possibilities throughout 2018.
While all positive stuff, TCX routes don't interest me as a consumer.

Why don't they interest you?

2018 looks to be a bit damp long haul wise.

We only have Seattle as a new route, Santa Clara new for TCX and that's it so far (this year saw several new long hauls including BOS/SFO on VS and SFO/CPT on MT.

It's also looks like it's the first time in about 5 years we haven't had anew long haul carrier announced/start.
2018 nothing so far
2017 saw Oman Air
2016 saw Hainan and Shaheen (latter since gone again)
2015 saw Cathay Pacific
2014 saw Air Canada Rouge

We probably had a new carrier in 2013 too but my memory box isn't great at the moment.

So, it's a shame to see the growth 'slowed down' but maybe it's MAN giving themselves some breathing room while the TP goes on?

I meant what announcements will be made in 2018 for 2019.

Keen to watch China grow at MAN, especially as Airport City takes shape.

Wonder if there'd be scope for a seasonal Vancouver route at some point, thinking aloud.

surprised no YVR. Would have thought twice weekly high summer TS or ACr even as a old style triangle double drop with GLA. Maybe one for WestJet?

I think TS do 3x weekly YVR in peak summer?

I know Air Canada rouge were thinking/rumoured about this, but I think the market has been quite flat for some time.

Any updates on the proposed link with Kuwait on Kuwait Airways that was mentioned a few months ago?