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When Will We See a New US/China Air Service Agreement?
Seeing as how both US and Chinese carriers have claimed all available Zone 1 frequencies (to/from PEK, PVG, and CAN), I was wondering if that would prompt negotiations over an expanded bilateral to allow for more growth in the US-China market. Has there been any discussion about that? How long would/could it take to reach a new agreement? Given the congestion at PEK, would a new agreement be tied to the opening of Daxing? I know several Chinese airlines and UA have been adding flights to other markets, meaning the current agreement isn't fully tapped out, but surely there are still lots of growth opportunities available from the Zone 1 cities that cannot currently be realized.
Re: When Will We See a New US/China Air Service Agreement?
Sightseer wrote:Seeing as how both US and Chinese carriers have claimed all available Zone 1 frequencies (to/from PEK, PVG, and CAN), I was wondering if that would prompt negotiations over an expanded bilateral to allow for more growth in the US-China market. Has there been any discussion about that? How long would/could it take to reach a new agreement? Given the congestion at PEK, would a new agreement be tied to the opening of Daxing?
I think so, yeah. I think one of China's primary concerns with the last bilateral was ensuring that the market matured in a "balanced" way - meaning in a way that does not disproportionately favor and benefit U.S. carriers. Given the incredible growth of China's airlines between the U.S. and both primary (Zone 1) and secondary Chinese markets, I doubt that is a big motivator at this point. Rather, to your point, I suspect any updated bilateral is now likely going to have to wait for the opening of Daxing because Beijing is one of the cities most in demand for growth and yet it's - apparently - full. But once Daxing is open, capacity in Beijing will expand dramatically - literally overnight. At that point, it isn't hard to see the Chinese government being very interested in further expanding the bilateral to allow even more flights for both sides.
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