LOT to start Budapest - New York & Chicago

krisyyz · Tue Jul 04, 2017 3:39 pm

Looks like BUD will finally get its highly sought-after, direct connection to New York. Budapest has been without a direct connection to NYC for years, previously MA, AA and DL flew this route, but now LO will be operating 5x flights to a unnamed airport in New York (I'm assuming JFK).

There were stories previously circulated about BUD being very close to securing new direct flights to the US, legacy US carriers, EK, QR and Norwegian were mentioned. So LO is kind of a surprise to me, however given the geopolitical aspects in central-eastern Europe, it's not surprising to see cooperation between the Polish and Hungarian governments.

The article (in Hungarian) also mentions that LO is considering flights from BUD to the west coast, possibly LAX or SFO. The article also brands this new venture between the Hungarian and Polish governments, and BUD as "Polish Malev".

https://mno.hu/gazdasag/ujra-indul-feri ... ra-2406201

KrisYYZ

TheGeordielad · Tue Jul 04, 2017 3:52 pm

LOT is also a surprise to me.

MIflyer12 · Tue Jul 04, 2017 4:11 pm

To Newark, to onward *A destinations via the UA hub?

georgiabill · Tue Jul 04, 2017 4:15 pm

Not sure what LO's operational costs are vs EK,QR or DY are. But I think the 788 might be the right plane to start the route. Perhaps LO could make BUD a 2nd hub or focus city.

PatrickZ80 · Tue Jul 04, 2017 4:28 pm

Very odd since LOT doesn't have a hub in Budapest. Honestly, I don't think it'll work for them. There's a reason it's called LOT Polish airlines. Many European flag carriers have tried to set up flights from outside their home country and failed. This won't be any different. Besides, LOT already offers connections from Budapest to New York (and many other destinations) through their hub in Warsaw.

With lack of feeder flights in Budapest these flights will have to rely strictly on O/D traffic, which is very little. Even with a feeder network Malev couldn't sustain in Budapest, and they had the bonus of being the flag carrier in that country and not some foreign airline. So I think that, even if they start it (which I doubt), it'll be very short-lived.

SeaDoo · Tue Jul 04, 2017 4:34 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
To Newark, to onward *A destinations via the UA hub?

That would be my guess over JFK, but I guess time will tell.

I hope LO success. Budapest is a great city and neat to see if find a non-stop back to New York.

Cointrin330 · Tue Jul 04, 2017 4:41 pm

BUD probably does need a nonstop to North America. The problem is, they don't seem to work. Business ties are not really that strong and it's mostly VFR. Malev couldn't make it work in the 1990s, Delta tried, and even with good feed at JFK, dropped it. AA lasted a year. Maybe less and only because Malev was in oneworld. The market just isn't there. Even with the economics of the 788, it seems like a bad idea.

krisyyz · Tue Jul 04, 2017 5:00 pm

PatrickZ80 wrote:
Very odd since LOT doesn't have a hub in Budapest. Honestly, I don't think it'll work for them. There's a reason it's called LOT Polish airlines. Many European flag carriers have tried to set up flights from outside their home country and failed. This won't be any different. Besides, LOT already offers connections from Budapest to New York (and many other destinations) through their hub in Warsaw.

With lack of feeder flights in Budapest these flights will have to rely strictly on O/D traffic, which is very little. Even with a feeder network Malev couldn't sustain in Budapest, and they had the bonus of being the flag carrier in that country and not some foreign airline. So I think that, even if they start it (which I doubt), it'll be very short-lived.

I respectfully disagree, MA was profitable and operated their TATL flights in the summer at 90% loads. What killed MA was not lack of demand, it was political miscalculations which burdened MA with third-party debt, not to mention having repay millions in subsidies in a short amount of time.

And look at Wizz and Norwegian, granted they have an LCC model, but both are doing pretty well with multiple "outside of their home country" hubs. But I do share your skepticism, I think BUD is a LCC hub, Air Canada Rouge is doing well in BUD so Wizz and Ryanair, all LCC. KL and LH for the most part feed their long-haul networks out of BUD, so LO may disrupt that a bit, but I don't how long that will last.

KrisYYZ

stlgph · Tue Jul 04, 2017 5:13 pm

Amazing and smart move on their part.

Budapest is HOT, HOT, *HOT* right now and it is has been among the top connections out of their Warsaw hub for N/A originating passengers. I've done it a few times on LOT and this definitely makes me want to do it again and cut out out the only undesirable part of the trip - the 3 to 4 hour connection in Warsaw on the way home.

Smart enough to come in and do it before Lufthansa or Austrian woke up and actually did a route like this.

I'm in.

PatrickZ80 · Tue Jul 04, 2017 5:21 pm

krisyyz wrote:
And look at Wizz and Norwegian, granted they have an LCC model, but both are doing pretty well with multiple "outside of their home country" hubs.

The difference is that Wizzair and Norwegian aren't flag carriers. LOT is a flag carrier, it is the Polish flag carrier.

Besides, you can't compare the hubs of Wizzair and Norwegian to the flights LOT is planning out of Budapest to New York. Wizzair doesn't allow for connections, therefor their hubs aren't passenger transfer hubs. They're only airports where they got their aircraft based. Besides, they fly short haul which is easier to fill. Norwegian does allow for connections, but at each of their hubs they got a severe short haul presence to feed their long haul flights.

If LOT wants these flights to be succesful they will need a short haul network in Budapest or a feeder airline based there to fill those flights, and even then it remains to be seen if they'll make it. Plenty of one-stop competition, so it won't be easy.

MLIAA · Tue Jul 04, 2017 5:22 pm

Would a EWR-BUD or JFK-BUD be in range for a DL or UA 757? The 75 is really the right airplane for this, if it can reach.

stlgph · Tue Jul 04, 2017 5:27 pm

MLIAA wrote:
Would a EWR-BUD or JFK-BUD be in range for a DL or UA 757? The 75 is really the right airplane for this, if it can reach.

Is it??!!? Just because you say so??

PatrickZ80 · Tue Jul 04, 2017 5:30 pm

MLIAA wrote:
Would a EWR-BUD or JFK-BUD be in range for a DL or UA 757? The 75 is really the right airplane for this, if it can reach.

Theoretically yes, but very tight. The 757 range is 7.222 kilometers, Newark Liberty Airport to Budapest Airport is 7.045 kilometers. That leaves only 177 kilometers margin for headwind, go-arounds, etc. Not enough if you ask me.

MIAFLLPBIFlyer · Tue Jul 04, 2017 5:31 pm

While many have lamented the loss of intercontinental service from BUD following Malev's collapse, my understanding is that Wizz and other LCC's have actually made traveling to Budapest easier and more affordable for tourists while business travelers continue to have options. So with this link, perhaps the end of Malev will no longer be whined about quite as much...

konkret · Tue Jul 04, 2017 5:45 pm

Surprised to see this news as not so long ago LO consolidated its efforts and axed all flights that didn't touch their WAW hub.

I keep my fingers crossed for LO's success, but am afraid that those flights are the result of political decision and not one based on economics. Polish government desperately wants to be a leader among Central/Eastern Europe nations, what is more they seem to treat Orban's Hungary as their closest ally in the EU.

hkcanadaexpat · Tue Jul 04, 2017 5:47 pm

Cointrin330 wrote:
BUD probably does need a nonstop to North America. The problem is, they don't seem to work. Business ties are not really that strong and it's mostly VFR. Malev couldn't make it work in the 1990s, Delta tried, and even with good feed at JFK, dropped it. AA lasted a year. Maybe less and only because Malev was in oneworld. The market just isn't there. Even with the economics of the 788, it seems like a bad idea.

Air Canada Rouge flies YYZ-BUD (summer seasonal) so there are flights currently from BUD to North America.

DLHAM · Tue Jul 04, 2017 5:50 pm

Maybe they get subsidies from the hungarian government to start this route. I am sure there is already a lot of traffic flying BUD-WAW-NYC/USA. Otherwise I am sure LOT wouldnt start such an adventure.

konkret · Tue Jul 04, 2017 5:54 pm

DLHAM wrote:
Maybe they get subsidies from the hungarian government to start this route. I am sure there is already a lot of traffic flying BUD-WAW-NYC/USA. Otherwise I am sure LOT wouldnt start such an adventure.

Taking subsidies from the Hungarian government didn't end well for Malev...

b727fan · Tue Jul 04, 2017 6:55 pm

Cointrin330 wrote:
BUD probably does need a nonstop to North America. The problem is, they don't seem to work. Business ties are not really that strong and it's mostly VFR. Malev couldn't make it work in the 1990s, Delta tried, and even with good feed at JFK, dropped it. AA lasted a year. Maybe less and only because Malev was in oneworld. The market just isn't there. Even with the economics of the 788, it seems like a bad idea.

CA Rouge already has scheduled flights to BUD.... but, there is certainly room for growth. There are many (and increasing) N. American tourists in Budapest. Also, many businesses have their C/S call centers set up in HU (mostly Budapest) so there is a lot of traffic both for business and leisure.

PHBVF · Tue Jul 04, 2017 7:07 pm

I wonder how they will rotate the aircraft...
My guess would be something like WAW-NYC-BUD-NYC-WAW.

Or would we see a WAW-BUD 788 flight....

Delta777Jet · Tue Jul 04, 2017 7:17 pm

Probably LOT knows some more figures due to their traffic BUD-WAW-NYC to see if there is potential or not. Guess they made their homework.

e38 · Tue Jul 04, 2017 7:18 pm

Does LOT have the resources to inaugurate new service or expand existing service? During the past week or so, I have noticed EuroAtlantic Airways Boeing 767-36N(ER) CS-TKS operating flights between both JFK/EWR and Warsaw on behalf of LOT.

e38

gregpodpl · Tue Jul 04, 2017 8:18 pm

Delta777Jet wrote:
Probably LOT knows some more figures due to their traffic BUD-WAW-NYC to see if there is potential or not. Guess they made their homework.

Or they got directions from the owner - Polish state - for purely political reasons. Imo this option is more probable.

I'm worried for LOT again - they started to recover and now this. Would be better to use the metal for WAW-LAX every day - now it's not really convenient.

448205 · Tue Jul 04, 2017 8:32 pm

I think a UA 763 to EWR would be the most practical.

TheGeordielad · Tue Jul 04, 2017 8:38 pm

e38 wrote:
Does LOT have the resources to inaugurate new service or expand existing service? During the past week or so, I have noticed EuroAtlantic Airways Boeing 767-36N(ER) CS-TKS operating flights between both JFK/EWR and Warsaw on behalf of LOT.

e38

Lot are receiving 2 more B788s this year and the start of 3 or 4 B789s next year so they have resources coming in.

upwardfacing · Tue Jul 04, 2017 8:38 pm

I agree with those who suggest this move is politically motivated and risky. Lack of shorthaul connections at BUD will be difficult to overcome.

Personally I thought EK would be the most likely candidate to make a BUD-NYC offering.

panamair · Tue Jul 04, 2017 8:39 pm

MLIAA wrote:
Would a EWR-BUD or JFK-BUD be in range for a DL or UA 757? The 75 is really the right airplane for this, if it can reach.

Not necessarily. If the US dollar remains strong (and American tourist numbers continue to grow) into next summer, I could see Delta do a seasonal 763 service using one of their high-density 763ERs (25J+200Y) like they did with Berlin this summer. Delta did run the service for 6 years from 2005 to 2011, and pulled it when jet fuel prices skyrocketed in 2011. Also, the last time Delta did BUD, they did not have the high density 763 yet. This market continues to have little premium traffic, but with low fuel prices, it could be sustainable as a summer seasonal service.

TheGeordielad · Tue Jul 04, 2017 8:41 pm

upwardfacing wrote:
I agree with those who suggest this move is politically motivated and risky. Lack of shorthaul connections at BUD will be difficult to overcome.

Personally I thought EK would be the most likely candidate to make a BUD-NYC offering.

Personally I think EK wouldn't be a likely candidate as their aircraft are quite dense in terms of passenger capacity therefore they would be putting too much where it's not needed and would be a waste.

TheGeordielad · Tue Jul 04, 2017 8:42 pm

TheGeordielad wrote:
e38 wrote:
Does LOT have the resources to inaugurate new service or expand existing service? During the past week or so, I have noticed EuroAtlantic Airways Boeing 767-36N(ER) CS-TKS operating flights between both JFK/EWR and Warsaw on behalf of LOT.

e38

Lot are receiving 2 more B788s this year and the start of 3 or 4 B789s next year so they have resources coming in.

*Correction* They have received 1 of the B788s and have 1 more coming.

deltadudejg · Tue Jul 04, 2017 8:52 pm

Very interesting news. I wonder if they could consider doing Prague to JFK since Czech abandoned that route.

flyguy89 · Tue Jul 04, 2017 9:08 pm

I don't think this is really that much of an off-the-cuff route and could see it working well. LOT appears to have a cost base and fleet to serve these lower-yielding routes profitably. If that is the case, NYC-BUD makes a lot of sense, as would NYC-PRG (both are decently-sized markets with no competition, albeit lower-yielding). Lack of connections on the BUD end doesn't really concern me as, if it does indeed end up being EWR, UA's hub on the other end should provide sufficient enough feed.

DDR · Tue Jul 04, 2017 9:09 pm

A little OT, but hasn't LOT traditionally done well in the U.S.? I know most flights from the former eastern bloc ended, but when was the last time there was no nonstop service to Poland?

panamair · Tue Jul 04, 2017 9:47 pm

flyguy89 wrote:
as would NYC-PRG (both are decently-sized markets with no competition, albeit lower-yielding).

Delta has been flying JFK-PRG seasonally for years now; this summer they have been using the 245-seat 764ER.

Bostrom · Tue Jul 04, 2017 10:30 pm

How big threat is VIE to long haul from Budapest? It is not the biggest hub in the world, but it's not that far from Budapest (200 km) and Austrian Airlines has a decent amount of long haul flights.

toltommy · Tue Jul 04, 2017 10:42 pm

[quote="PatrickZ80"]There's a reason it's called LOT Polish airlines. /quote]

I was going to give you a well reasoned answer, but it will have to wait until after I take my Southwest flight to Providence and catch my transatlantic flight on Norwegian to Dublin...

The point is that the days of such jingoistic nationalism is over. If LOT offers a service that fits a hole in the marketplace and a fair price, it will work. I'm just not sure there that much of a need.

marschaller1972 · Tue Jul 04, 2017 10:56 pm

PatrickZ80 wrote:
krisyyz wrote:
And look at Wizz and Norwegian, granted they have an LCC model, but both are doing pretty well with multiple "outside of their home country" hubs.

The difference is that Wizzair and Norwegian aren't flag carriers. LOT is a flag carrier, it is the Polish flag carrier.

Besides, you can't compare the hubs of Wizzair and Norwegian to the flights LOT is planning out of Budapest to New York. Wizzair doesn't allow for connections, therefor their hubs aren't passenger transfer hubs. They're only airports where they got their aircraft based. Besides, they fly short haul which is easier to fill. Norwegian does allow for connections, but at each of their hubs they got a severe short haul presence to feed their long haul flights.

If LOT wants these flights to be succesful they will need a short haul network in Budapest or a feeder airline based there to fill those flights, and even then it remains to be seen if they'll make it. Plenty of one-stop competition, so it won't be easy.

In 2016, there were 448,000 passengers between Budapest and USA. 330,000 of them were a BUD-XXX-NYC passenger.
Until 2012, BUD has 2 daily flight between BUD and JFK, Malev and Delta, after that American and Delta. Both flight had in average 87% LF. 787-900 is much more profitable than 767 and the fuel prices are also significantly lower than were in 2012. So, this time is good for an experiment.

Other advantage : The Danube River cruises are extremely popular now. 8 boat departs from Budapest weekly and the prices are really high, so their passengers generate good yields for the airlines. 80% of the Danube river cruises passengers are Americans and Canadians.

LOT have 6 787's so far and there are 5 787-900 in order, but they don't have enough demand to fill these widebody planes from WAW. One of their current 787 permanently work for Air Europe, because they unable to use it from WAW. Use the plane from somewhere with high demand is better than cancel an order, or use the plane on a route which may fails.

georgiabill · Tue Jul 04, 2017 11:09 pm

BUD also for foodies offers a diverse eating options

N62NA · Wed Jul 05, 2017 12:01 am

stlgph wrote:
MLIAA wrote:
Would a EWR-BUD or JFK-BUD be in range for a DL or UA 757? The 75 is really the right airplane for this, if it can reach.

Is it??!!? Just because you say so??

Yeah, but not just because MLIAA says so. Because the 757 has been a great success in offering serving between EWR and secondary cities in Europe where demand is not great enough to warrant a larger aircraft.

It's a totally logical statement to make, so if you have any problem with the idea, deal with that instead of attacking MLIAA.

marschaller1972 · Wed Jul 05, 2017 12:36 am

N62NA wrote:
stlgph wrote:
MLIAA wrote:
Would a EWR-BUD or JFK-BUD be in range for a DL or UA 757? The 75 is really the right airplane for this, if it can reach.

Is it??!!? Just because you say so??

Yeah, but not just because MLIAA says so. Because the 757 has been a great success in offering serving between EWR and secondary cities in Europe where demand is not great enough to warrant a larger aircraft.

It's a totally logical statement to make, so if you have any problem with the idea, deal with that instead of attacking MLIAA.

757 Maximum range is not enough for a JFK/EWR-BUD flight. As it said before, the max range is 7,200 Km. NYC-BUD is 7,050 Km. So with the 45 minute reserve, which is extra 600km, BUD is absolutely out of the 757's range.

Those 440,000 pax will easily fill the 787-900 in the summer season, and LOT probably won't operate this flight in the winter season, maybe only for 2 days/week.

dcaviation · Wed Jul 05, 2017 1:00 am

marschaller1972 wrote:

LOT have 6 787's so far and there are 5 787-900 in order, but they don't have enough demand to fill these widebody planes from WAW. One of their current 787 permanently work for Air Europe, because they unable to use it from WAW. Use the plane from somewhere with high demand is better than cancel an order, or use the plane on a route which may fails.

What have you been drinking? LOT is short on wide body planes. Air Europe was just a 3 months lease couple of years ago. They couldn't start new flights because the mafia called EU wouldn't let them! They had to cut the routes. That's also how Malev died.
LOT flies from WAW to YYZ, JFK, EWR, ORD (ORD and JFK twice daily), LAX, NRT, PEK, ICN, several charters to Central and South America, Caribbean islands, South East Asia and few vacation destinations in Africa, like Madagascar. They also fly now from KRK to ORD. These are the 787 routes. They are SHORT on planes.
The only reason why I see them flying from BUD anywhere else besides WAW is if they are getting some subsidy from Hungarian government.

And there is no such a plane as 787-900.

jetblastdubai · Wed Jul 05, 2017 3:31 am

stlgph wrote:
Amazing and smart move on their part. Budapest is HOT, HOT, *HOT* right now

+100. Totally unscientific observation on my part but I've been to +/- 30 countries over the past few years and Budapest is, by far, my favorite place to visit. It's on par with Prague for nightlife and interesting things to do during the day and it offers it all for a fraction of the price. It's got rich history, amazing old buildings/museums and it's not so overwhelming like some mega European cities.

If LOT runs the flight out of EWR, it could benefit from all the UA feed plus have a UA code share and show up on all the booking sites so grabbing the US traffic wouldn't be that difficult. The fares that LH charges are sky-high for US-BUD so there should be some room grow the market by offering a more competitive price.

PS. They've got that very nostalgic aviation museum that's walking distance from the airport terminal. https://www.knaviation.net/museum-budapest

TheGeordielad · Wed Jul 05, 2017 6:32 am

marschaller1972 wrote:
PatrickZ80 wrote:
krisyyz wrote:
And look at Wizz and Norwegian, granted they have an LCC model, but both are doing pretty well with multiple "outside of their home country" hubs.

The difference is that Wizzair and Norwegian aren't flag carriers. LOT is a flag carrier, it is the Polish flag carrier.

Besides, you can't compare the hubs of Wizzair and Norwegian to the flights LOT is planning out of Budapest to New York. Wizzair doesn't allow for connections, therefor their hubs aren't passenger transfer hubs. They're only airports where they got their aircraft based. Besides, they fly short haul which is easier to fill. Norwegian does allow for connections, but at each of their hubs they got a severe short haul presence to feed their long haul flights.

If LOT wants these flights to be succesful they will need a short haul network in Budapest or a feeder airline based there to fill those flights, and even then it remains to be seen if they'll make it. Plenty of one-stop competition, so it won't be easy.

In 2016, there were 448,000 passengers between Budapest and USA. 330,000 of them were a BUD-XXX-NYC passenger.
Until 2012, BUD has 2 daily flight between BUD and JFK, Malev and Delta, after that American and Delta. Both flight had in average 87% LF. 787-900 is much more profitable than 767 and the fuel prices are also significantly lower than were in 2012. So, this time is good for an experiment.

Other advantage : The Danube River cruises are extremely popular now. 8 boat departs from Budapest weekly and the prices are really high, so their passengers generate good yields for the airlines. 80% of the Danube river cruises passengers are Americans and Canadians.

LOT have 6 787's so far and there are 5 787-900 in order, but they don't have enough demand to fill these widebody planes from WAW. One of their current 787 permanently work for Air Europe, because they unable to use it from WAW. Use the plane from somewhere with high demand is better than cancel an order, or use the plane on a route which may fails.

Lot has 7 now and only 4 B789s coming
Also since Air Euorpa now have there own B788s they've returned Lots B788 back to them.

ME720 · Wed Jul 05, 2017 6:47 am

They Will probably code share with UA feeding in and out of EWR And with LH, LX and OS in and out of BUD? They would definitely not embark into this venture had they not seen the potential!

ME720 · Wed Jul 05, 2017 6:54 am

Add to that: Aegean, eurowings, Egyptair, brussels airlines...they can feed from many of those destination into BUD...
and making it possible for US based pax to fly into BUD and back to the US from BRU, VIE, ZRH, FRA, etc ..

B747forever · Wed Jul 05, 2017 7:19 am

How is LOT's latest long haul destination LAX doing?

konkret · Wed Jul 05, 2017 10:10 am

Lot's relationship with UA is not very strong. Instead of feeding Lot's flight to BUD UA will be more inclined to put pax on their own or their JV partners' metal to Europe and onto connections through FRA, MUC, VIE, ZRH, BRU.

Btw. It is being reported that LOT bought a domain "malot.hu" (probably short for Magyar LOT and reminiscent of malev.hu) so maybe LO's plans for BUD are bigger than just the NYC flight.

krisyyz · Wed Jul 05, 2017 11:49 am

Some further details...

-Flights from BUD tto NYC will start Q1/Q2 2018.
-The Polish Deputy PM and the Hungarian Foreign Minster will make the official announcement on Friday, the two will arrive at BUD on LO's newest 787.

konkret wrote:
Btw. It is being reported that LOT bought a domain "malot.hu" (probably short for Magyar LOT and reminiscent of malev.hu) so maybe LO's plans for BUD are bigger than just the NYC flight.

That's interesting. Could be the case, the Polish and Hungarian governments have a lot in common, perhaps the end goal is to have an SAS kind of airline, Poland, Hungary and may be the Czech Republic or Slovakia?

KrisYYZ

konkret · Wed Jul 05, 2017 12:15 pm

Czechia has CSK so I don't think they would be interested in supporting this, but Estonia is already onboard through the Nordica-LOT partnership.

If they registered malot.hu maybe lothansa.de and alotalia.it will be next

avek00 · Wed Jul 05, 2017 12:36 pm

konkret wrote:
Lot's relationship with UA is not very strong. Instead of feeding Lot's flight to BUD UA will be more inclined to put pax on their own or their JV partners' metal to Europe and onto connections through FRA, MUC, VIE, ZRH, BRU.

Btw. It is being reported that LOT bought a domain "malot.hu" (probably short for Magyar LOT and reminiscent of malev.hu) so maybe LO's plans for BUD are bigger than just the NYC flight.

United and LOT Polish have antitrust immunity, so it's entirely possible they might embark on some cooperation for this route.

stlgph · Wed Jul 05, 2017 1:31 pm

N62NA wrote:
stlgph wrote:
MLIAA wrote:
Would a EWR-BUD or JFK-BUD be in range for a DL or UA 757? The 75 is really the right airplane for this, if it can reach.

Is it??!!? Just because you say so??

Yeah, but not just because MLIAA says so. Because the 757 has been a great success in offering serving between EWR and secondary cities in Europe where demand is not great enough to warrant a larger aircraft.

It's a totally logical statement to make, so if you have any problem with the idea, deal with that instead of attacking MLIAA.

It's a "totally logical statement to make..." only because he says so.
K, got it.
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