Hello there Turkish Aviation fans,
Welcome to our latest thread.



Some recent news:
-TK has changed cabin configuration of Airbus A330-200 TC-JNE from C22Y228 to C18Y232. JNA/JNB/JNC/JND will follow
-TK starts Phuket 17July

Please continue with your news, views, photos, rumors and good old sense of humor. Refrain from personal attacks/political commentary.
Safe flights and Happy Landings to all

You can find June 2017 thread here: viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1364675

Hello everyone. Happy summer, hope bayram went well. Hopefully July 2017 will be less eventfull than July 2016.


Some big news from TK Cargo.

They will commence A330F services to a host of cities this month including Antananarivo, Dakar, Johannesburg, Prague, Riga plus additional frequencies to Paris and Benelux markets.

TK also leased a 2nd 744F - this time from US charter operator Kalitta. N403KZ will primarily operate to Europe, while the Atlas Air aircraft will service Far East markets. Kalitta aircraft has been running charters this week between Izmir and Doha.


I noticed Air Transport World today published an interview with Mehmet Nane new CEO of Pegasus.
http://atwonline.com/airlines/interview ... ehmet-nane

LAXintl wrote:

TK also leased a 2nd 744F - this time from US charter operator Kalitta. N403KZ will primarily operate to Europe, while the Atlas Air aircraft will service Far East markets. Kalitta aircraft has been running charters this week between Izmir and Doha.

I hope everyone enjoys the month ahead.
Since TK is expanding their cargo operation, do you think they'll bring the 744's in house or continue to lease them?

For me, buying 74F does not make sense, introducing an other type for max 5-6 frames is a costly and difficult operation
Buying more 77F makes much more sense.

Dear Laxint
Could u pls kindly share load factors of longhaul operations of TK

Dear TK787
Thank u very much for new thread. Lets dream your login name be a reality and see 787 in TK color

Refurbishment of 332ER s is better than nothing. Does anybody have picture of bc or some info

Thanks for a new thread TK787. HKT is a welcome addition to the network and hope it does well.

Hello All and greetings from AYT.

Looks like tourism numbers are recovering back to 2015 levels, best of all times, and AYT is going back to usual tempo. On the otherhand, composition of tourist origins changed a lot this year and you see Russians, Arabs, Iranians, Israilies, Ukranians, Khazaks, Azerians, Polish rather than the usual Germans and other North Western Europians. I think industry did a great job for this quick adjustment. We will know more about the trend in a few days when DHMI publishes the statistics.

Obviously Germans and other West Europeans will return back eventually (probably 2018 or 2020) as there is no alternative to Antalya in the whole world. Industry has to plan for an other extension of business by then.

Yes things are very busy - on June 30th AYT set a record - 129,051 passengers on 754 flights

Turns out TC-JRG has not been repainted into the same livery as TC-JRO... however it's been off service for 5 days, could be getting repainted into another livery, I'm not sure why it's been off service.

-Can anyone confirm that Corendon has leased a 340-500 (CS-TFX of Hi Fly) for the summer season?
-Also airporthaber.com reports that the "Electronics Ban" could be lifted on July 5th??

Interesting news from Onur Air. They are delving further into scheduled service flying.

Effective October they will launch "shuttle" service between IST and Izmir with 10 daily flights in each direction!

TK787 wrote:

-Can anyone confirm that Corendon has leased a 340-500 (CS-TFX of Hi Fly) for the summer season?

I dont know if its for the entire summer, but yes Corendon is using the aircraft for Antalya flights.

TK787 wrote:

-Also airporthaber.com reports that the "Electronics Ban" could be lifted on July 5th??

TAV last month took delivery of a pair of new 3D scanners which will be utilized on US and UK flights. Each machine can process about ~500 pieces of carry on luggage per hour. Machines are awaiting certification and will be positoned at the departure gate area.

Hello all,
This is my first post, although following this forum since 2009.
I noticed that both landings and take offs to/from RWY 06 at SAW are way too rough, especially since recent months. Yesterday, I felt as if plane is going to tear apart. Is there a chance that ongoing construction works affect condition of runway?

LAXintl wrote:

Interesting news from Onur Air. They are delving further into scheduled service flying.

Effective October they will launch "shuttle" service between IST and Izmir with 10 daily flights in each direction!

WOW !! head-on to the even more flights of TK and the usual 3-4 per day of KK and PC. Thats quite a lift between both airports (I didn't say cities...).

Great news for Izmir to see more traffic. Some numbers of Turkish Airlines and Izmir:

IST-ADB: 16 daily flights (TK)
SAW-ADB: 7 daily flights (TK), plus 1 daily Anadolujet
ESB-ADB: 10 daily flights (Anadolujet)
TK has some international traffic from ADB: Berlin, Hamburg, Munich (all 2 weekly), Stuttgart and Kuwait (1 weekly).

The Onur move is certainly bold going so strongly against TK out of IST on a key route instead of its traditional relative low-frequency domestic flying.
Its becoming clear that Onur is increasingly positioning itself at the primary IST(and future 3rd airport) based LCC.

I wonder if AtlasGlobal will somehow step up to the plate and develop stronger domestic network again. Of course, its product is more a hybrid being 2-class, offering catering, etc.

I know that they have different management styles etc but I always thought that AtlasGlobal and Onur are good merger candidates.

TK787 wrote:

-Also airporthaber.com reports that the "Electronics Ban" could be lifted on July 5th??

I read that on Bloomberg earlier today as well - it appears to be based on a tweet by Bilal Eksi (https://twitter.com/bilaleksithy?lang=en)

Ban lifted effective July 5th.

TK this evening put out a mini-commercial highlighting

https://twitter.com/TurkishAirlines/sta ... 6143161344


Dear Passengers,
Welcome On Board to our US-bound flight. Please fasten your seatbelts and enjoy your own electronic devices.

mickster wrote:

TK787 wrote:

-Also airporthaber.com reports that the "Electronics Ban" could be lifted on July 5th??

I read that on Bloomberg earlier today as well - it appears to be based on a tweet by Bilal Eksi (https://twitter.com/bilaleksithy?lang=en)

Also seems to be confirmed by Ilker Ayci of TK now.
Edit: Thanks for the info LAXintl, I missed your post

Since Onur (and also the others) can't move into IST-ESB market, they do the right thing and tackle TK on the second best domestic route. The market will love it!
Two aircraft will apparently be dedicated for this ops.
It remains open how KK and PC will react. Another question is, how they received the required slots?

Another quick trip report from today's TK2, JFK-IST.
6 year old 77W; "Istanbul" in great shape. 12 FA's did an excellent job. I was flying Y this time. By the way; roundtrip JFK-IST, I paid $1800 a week out, ouch!. 34J, 265Y pax on board today, uneventful and a super fast, 8:30 flight.

TK787 wrote:

Another quick trip report from today's TK2, JFK-IST.
6 year old 77W; "Istanbul" in great shape. 12 FA's did an excellent job. I was flying Y this time. By the way; roundtrip JFK-IST, I paid $1800 a week out, ouch!. 34J, 265Y pax on board today, uneventful and a super fast, 8:30 flight.

LF of %86 on that flight, nice.

Figures released by Turkish Airports for the month of June (the numbers are cumulative for 2017 as of end of June only),

Pax numbers for top five airports (domestic & international combined);


ISTANBUL ATATÜRK 28,685,106 (-2%)
ISTANBUL SAW 14,399,487 (+2%)
ANKARA ESB 6,741,251 (+9%) (international is up +25%)
IZMIR ADB 5,767,243 (+1%)
ANTALYA AYT 9,341,329 (+29) (international is up +52%)

Looks like Istanbul is holding up with not much gain or loss. The main increase is at AYT with a massive 52% boom mainly due to Russian pax and ESB is growing with Pegasus, Saudia, Ukrainian etc. in double digit numbers in 2017 in international pax numbers, this shows the potential and TK's inability to develop ESB, TK has lost ESB international to other airlines now and Pegasus is turning ESB into a secondary hub for international flights after SAW, next new destination will be Ankara Odessa with thrice weekly service..

I am sure IST will turn into + numbers in July with increasing number of tourists flowing into Turkey..

Mycargo ( formerly ACT) is in serious trouble with Insurance companies not willing to pay-out the damages caused by the Januari Crash.
It is expected that the main shareholder HNA will stop operations as it has lost face with this crash and resulting investigation, revealing how much of a Cowboy unprofessional outfit MyCargo really is.
So ByeBye MyCargo.

Onur Air has published its IST-ADB schedule. Below is the weekday schedule.

IST-ADB 0700-0805
IST-ADB 0850-0955
IST-ADB 1025-1130
IST-ADB 1215-1320
IST-ADB 1355-1500
IST-ADB 1545-1650
IST-ADB 1720-1825
IST-ADB 1910-2015
IST-ADB 2045-2150
IST-ADB 2235-2330

ADB-IST 0700-0805
ADB-IST 0835-1025
ADB-IST 1025-1130
ADB-IST 1200-1305
ADB-IST 1355-1500
ADB-IST 1530-1635
ADB-IST 1720-1825
ADB-IST 1855-2000
ADB-IST 2045-2150
ADB-IST 2220-2325

Base fares range from 84-134 TL each-way.

A330 wrote:

Mycargo ( formerly ACT) is in serious trouble with Insurance companies not willing to pay-out the damages caused by the Januari Crash.
It is expected that the main shareholder HNA will stop operations as it has lost face with this crash and resulting investigation, revealing how much of a Cowboy unprofessional outfit MyCargo really is.
So ByeBye MyCargo.

I am not sure why ACT would need to pay anything - that is the whole point of having insurance.

Any claims are settled by the insurance company following their established procedures. The only reason ACT could be liable is if they failed to have proper coverage, or if there is an exclusion condition such as criminal fault by the airline that was discovered, but I don't really see this being an issue.

A330 wrote:

Mycargo ( formerly ACT) is in serious trouble with Insurance companies not willing to pay-out the damages caused by the Januari Crash.
It is expected that the main shareholder HNA will stop operations as it has lost face with this crash and resulting investigation, revealing how much of a Cowboy unprofessional outfit MyCargo really is.
So ByeBye MyCargo.

How is mycargo a cowboy unprofessional outfit?
I don't know a whole lot of Turkish aviation apart from a few things.

Are there any news about the new airport in Istanbul? Haven´t heard anything since a couple of months...

I am sure IST will turn into + numbers in July with increasing number of tourists flowing into Turkey..

Well, sorry to say but I'm not as optimistic as you are, particularly for the IST (Atatürk) Airport.

I have done some analysis for the last several years of pax increase for IST, regarding the first half of each year. Results are:
From 2012 to 2013 : 18.55% increase
From 2013 to 2014: 10.30% increase
From 2014 to 2015: 6.95% increase
From 2015 to 2016: 1,00% increase (despite 2016 has been a very bad year!)
From 2016 to 2017: 1,80% DECREASE

And don't forget the fact that the last few days of June 2017 has been the Ramazan Holidays and there has been some major increase due to holidaying travellers, including international ones. Without this contribution, the percentage Decrease may have gone more, maybe up to 2.00-2.25%.

I did a second analysis, and sorted out the increase of the second half of the year, compared to the first half of the respective year:

2012 : 18%
2013: 9%
2014: 10%
2015: 12%
2016: 7%

The average increase in these 5 years' period has been 56/5=11.2%

Now, if we apply this average value to 2017, we will see that IST (AHL) will close the year at a figure like 60.600.000 pax (all inclusive), which isn't a big improvement over the end-2016 (a very bad year's) closing figure. (Only a 0.3% increase)

With much optimism, let's assume end-2018 will show a 3% increase over 2017, end 2019 will show a 4% increase over end 2018, and thereafter each year the increasing trend will progressively increase by 1%. I also assume that by the end of 2019, Istanbul New Airport will fully replace IST (Atatürk) Airport for all domestic & international flights.

So, by:
end 2018: 60.600.000 x 1.03 = 62.418.000
end 2019: 62.418.000 x 1.04 = 64.915.000
end 2020: 64915.000 x 1.05 = 68.161.000
end 2021: 68.161.000 x 1.06 = 72.251.000
end 2022: 72.151.000 x 1.07 = 77.202.000
end 2023: 77.202.000 x 1.08 = 83.378.000
end 2024: 83.378.000 x 1.09 = 90.882.000


As you can see, these predicted figures are waayyy below IGA's previous estimations. The Phase1 of Istanbul New Airport and its 1st Terminal will begin to saturate only by the beginning of 2025. (And I assume, a terminal planned for 90 million pax/year can comfortably handle up to 100 million, without serious restraints...). So this terminal will become truly "congested" only by the end of year 2025.

Not very good news for the IGA Group, I'm afraid!...

And, adding to my below comments:

Despite all current adverse conditions, the overall of pax traffic for the first 6 months of 2017, has increased 4.1%, compared to the same 6 month period of 2016. This isn't yet a 2-digit figure, but it also isn't a very unhealthy one. The point is, IST (AHL) Airport has been on decline. Is this a temporary mishap, or is it the beginning of a steeper decline? IST not a very much slot-restrained hub for the moment.

The Terminal has been relatively less congested... SHGM has even allowed for any charter operations to re-start.

So how can they improve the current day figures, to make it re-build up for a more promising pax traffic in 2018 & 2019 (at the least, wto te levels I have forecasted below...), before the New Istanbul Airport takes over the operations?

I agree with mafaky's analyses. To be honest, the outlook for Turkish tourism is far from bleak. The saving grace is Russian / Ukranian tourism, coupled with rising Arab visitor numbers. And with tension rising in Syria and now Qatar, the region is going to be even more destabilized. Add to that the ever-worsening image of Turkey in the West - our biggest tourism market - and the fact that foreigners want to do less business with us, and I doubt we will have explosive growth again soon.

mafaky wrote:

I am sure IST will turn into + numbers in July with increasing number of tourists flowing into Turkey..

Well, sorry to say but I'm not as optimistic as you are, particularly for the IST (Atatürk) Airport.

.....

I did a second analysis, and sorted out the increase of the second half of the year.....

2012 : 18%
2013: 9%
2014: 10%
2015: 12%
2016: 7%

Well.... if you do your calculations on wrong numbers and do not consider the frame and circumstances around the developments.... you may well be pessimistic.

I liked your idea to calculate the growth in half years, but got different rates. I used the data of DHMI.

For the second half of the year, I got following rates:

2012: 18.8%
2013: 9.7%
2014: 10.7%
2015: 9.3%
2016: -3.7%

(2H16 surprisingly low although the failed coup and Turkish Airlines laying off almost 10% of its capacities)

To make assumptions for the future you should consider the whole picture.
Istanbul Atatürk Airports growth was highly dependant and corelated to Turkish Airlines growth. In the years with double digit growth rates were the ones when TK received a lot of A/C and expanded accordingly.
Already in 2015 the physical capacities of IST were maxed out. TK shifted some of its capacities to SAW and in 2016 deferred most of its deliveries beyond 2018/2019.

If you want to draw a realistic picture of the future Airport... take these facts into account.
Also there will be much more foreign Carrieries at IGA. Carriers who couldnt get slots before can obtain easily at the new Airport at the times they want to operate.

Tkfan wrote:

Also there will be much more foreign Carrieries at IGA. Carriers who couldnt get slots before can obtain easily at the new Airport at the times they want to operate.

Are you sure? A lot of foreign carriers that had slots at IST cancelled their flights altogether or scaled back ops (LX, OS, IB, KL, AF, LH, SK, AZ, UA, DL, CZ, SQ...), partly due to competition but also partly due to the fact that most traffic nowadays at IST is either transit or low yield O&D. I seriously doubt any new airlines will show up at the new airport.

leftyboarder wrote:

Tkfan wrote:

Also there will be much more foreign Carrieries at IGA. Carriers who couldnt get slots before can obtain easily at the new Airport at the times they want to operate.

Are you sure? A lot of foreign carriers that had slots at IST cancelled their flights altogether or scaled back ops (LX, OS, IB, KL, AF, LH, SK, AZ, UA, DL, CZ, SQ...), partly due to competition but also partly due to the fact that most traffic nowadays at IST is either transit or low yield O&D. I seriously doubt any new airlines will show up at the new airport.

WOW. Makes the recovery of the City of Istanbul, IST Airport and Turkish Airlines more impressive!!!
And explains also the improved L/F of Turkish Airlines.

Monthly traffic at IST
Jan 4.033.182 -12,7%
Feb 4.024.705 -7,8%
Mar 4.730.323 -3,3%
Apr 5.369.853 +7,9%
May 5.394.938 -1,7%
Jun 5.132.105 +5,2%

YTD 28.685.106 -1,8%

Kudos to Turkish Airlines and Atatürk Airport.
For the second half expect positive growth and an overall growth of about 5%

When the new Airport is operational (I expect it to be in 2020) TKs fleet is projected to be 20% larger and most of the Airlines you mentioned will return and new entrants, especially Asian Carriers, will serve IGA.

mafaky wrote:

I am sure IST will turn into + numbers in July with increasing number of tourists flowing into Turkey..

Well, sorry to say but I'm not as optimistic as you are, particularly for the IST (Atatürk) Airport.

I have done some analysis for the last several years of pax increase for IST, regarding the first half of each year. Results are:
From 2012 to 2013 : 18.55% increase
From 2013 to 2014: 10.30% increase
From 2014 to 2015: 6.95% increase
From 2015 to 2016: 1,00% increase (despite 2016 has been a very bad year!)
From 2016 to 2017: 1,80% DECREASE

And don't forget the fact that the last few days of June 2017 has been the Ramazan Holidays and there has been some major increase due to holidaying travellers, including international ones. Without this contribution, the percentage Decrease may have gone more, maybe up to 2.00-2.25%.

I did a second analysis, and sorted out the increase of the second half of the year, compared to the first half of the respective year:

2012 : 18%
2013: 9%
2014: 10%
2015: 12%
2016: 7%

The average increase in these 5 years' period has been 56/5=11.2%

Now, if we apply this average value to 2017, we will see that IST (AHL) will close the year at a figure like 60.600.000 pax (all inclusive), which isn't a big improvement over the end-2016 (a very bad year's) closing figure. (Only a 0.3% increase)

With much optimism, let's assume end-2018 will show a 3% increase over 2017, end 2019 will show a 4% increase over end 2018, and thereafter each year the increasing trend will progressively increase by 1%. I also assume that by the end of 2019, Istanbul New Airport will fully replace IST (Atatürk) Airport for all domestic & international flights.

So, by:
end 2018: 60.600.000 x 1.03 = 62.418.000
end 2019: 62.418.000 x 1.04 = 64.915.000
end 2020: 64915.000 x 1.05 = 68.161.000
end 2021: 68.161.000 x 1.06 = 72.251.000
end 2022: 72.151.000 x 1.07 = 77.202.000
end 2023: 77.202.000 x 1.08 = 83.378.000
end 2024: 83.378.000 x 1.09 = 90.882.000


As you can see, these predicted figures are waayyy below IGA's previous estimations. The Phase1 of Istanbul New Airport and its 1st Terminal will begin to saturate only by the beginning of 2025. (And I assume, a terminal planned for 90 million pax/year can comfortably handle up to 100 million, without serious restraints...). So this terminal will become truly "congested" only by the end of year 2025.

Not very good news for the IGA Group, I'm afraid!...

Interesting analysis.

Growth in second half of the year will be strong YoY. For example, TK planned ASK is +11% in Oct-Nov 2017 compared to Oct-Nov 2016 capacity.
So we should see increasing YoY growth comparisons starting this month.

Overall Turkey numbers are also getting stronger YoY. Just look at AYT which set a single day enplanement record last month.

LAXintl wrote:

Growth in second half of the year will be strong YoY. For example, TK planned ASK is +11% in Oct-Nov 2017 compared to Oct-Nov 2016 capacity.
So we should see increasing YoY growth comparisons starting this month.

.....

Thats what I am expecting too.

Do you have also comparisons for August and September?

Also how will Turkish Airlines manage the capacity increase?
According to their March 2017 presentation their fleet will be down to 325 frames at the end of the year. Will we see again interim leasings or will it be done by higher utilisation of owned A/C??

Kudos to Turkish Airlines and Atatürk Airport.
For the second half expect positive growth and an overall growth of about 5%

When the new Airport is operational (I expect it to be in 2020) TKs fleet is projected to be 20% larger and most of the Airlines you mentioned will return and new entrants, especially Asian Carriers, will serve IGA.

Are you "day dreaming" about an overall growth of 5% at IST (AHL) Airport at the end of the year!... With all due respect, that looks as a very very wishful thinking. I can't call it as an educated guess!

Individual and specific examples (like the AYT's improvement) is not the concern or basis of this conversation; I have deliberately limited it to IST (AHL) and its future, the New Istanbul Airport.

And when it comes to the fully operational status of Istanbul's New Airport: Yes, the planned TK Fleet will surely increase. But what percentage of the increased number of frames will/can be effectively used like 12 hrs./day, and with an average (and very optimistic) LF like 80%? Do we have any foreseeable guarantees for this to happen?

Or, will the New Airport act as a storage area, regretfully for TK? And, BTW, the 1st Phase of this huge project doesn't have extremely generous long term parking space, for TK, say for 30-40 frames at the same time. I would hate to see it, but if business goes as usual we may see scenes similar to or worse than the ones as in AYT this winter: remember those 10+ 332s parked side by side...

Frankly speaking I haven't any full and irrevocable faith in "future projections" made by TK or others. I prefer to wait and see, until they are proved!...

BTW, have you any inside information from the Chinese Government that they will start (on countrywide basis) summer holidays for the employees like 10-15 days that we have in the Western World and start sending these hard workers to holidays in Turkey, say after 2020s? Which Asian (not only Asean) carriers will start serving IGA and for what good reason, in the presence of current day traffic demand? TK has 26 weekly slots to PRC and HKG, as of today; How many Chinese carriers are flying to Turkey and at in what number of frequencies, as of today? Similar case for India?... Are you aware about the reasons why TK had to seriously cut their Japan flights, in the last year or so? Why isn't any of the US3 unwilling to fly to IST, since some time? And AC bailed out? Has it been only the slot restraints at IST (AHL), so that everything will become pink and smooth with the opening of the New Airport?

Have a hearth:Let's be realistic and a bit more cautious, eh? Otherwise, it may turn out to be the "ignorant's courage!"

mafaky wrote:

Kudos to Turkish Airlines and Atatürk Airport.
For the second half expect positive growth and an overall growth of about 5%

When the new Airport is operational (I expect it to be in 2020) TKs fleet is projected to be 20% larger and most of the Airlines you mentioned will return and new entrants, especially Asian Carriers, will serve IGA.

Are you "day dreaming" about an overall growth of 5% at IST (AHL) Airport at the end of the year!... With all due respect, that looks as a very very wishful thinking. I can't call it as an educated guess!

Individual and specific examples (like the AYT's improvement) is not the concern or basis of this conversation; I have deliberately limited it to IST (AHL) and its future, the New Istanbul Airport.

And when it comes to the fully operational status of Istanbul's New Airport: Yes, the planned TK Fleet will surely increase. But what percentage of the increased number of frames will/can be effectively used like 12 hrs./day, and with an average (and very optimistic) LF like 80%? Do we have any foreseeable guarantees for this to happen?

Or, will the New Airport act as a storage area, regretfully for TK? And, BTW, the 1st Phase of this huge project doesn't have extremely generous long term parking space, for TK, say for 30-40 frames at the same time. I would hate to see it, but if business goes as usual we may see scenes similar to or worse than the ones as in AYT this winter: remember those 10+ 332s parked side by side...

Frankly speaking I haven't any full and irrevocable faith in "future projections" made by TK or others. I prefer to wait and see, until they are proved!...

BTW, have you any inside information from the Chinese Government that they will start (on countrywide basis) summer holidays for the employees like 10-15 days that we have in the Western World and start sending these hard workers to holidays in Turkey, say after 2020s? Which Asian (not only Asean) carriers will start serving IGA and for what good reason, in the presence of current day traffic demand? TK has 26 weekly slots to PRC and HKG, as of today; How many Chinese carriers are flying to Turkey and at in what number of frequencies, as of today? Similar case for India?... Are you aware about the reasons why TK had to seriously cut their Japan flights, in the last year or so? Why isn't any of the US3 unwilling to fly to IST, since some time? And AC bailed out? Has it been only the slot restraints at IST (AHL), so that everything will become pink and smooth with the opening of the New Airport?

Have a hearth:Let's be realistic and a bit more cautious, eh? Otherwise, it may turn out to be the "ignorant's courage!"

Well said!!
One has to realize that the major problem for tourism and air traffic to Turkey in the coming years is its brand, mainly in Western Europe. As long as Turkey is perceived as an unsafe and/or unstable destination, tourists and business will not return en masse. Sure, Russians and Ukrainians may make up for some of the loss (for lack of better visa-free alternatives at a similar cost), but they spend far less than do Brits, Germans, Dutch and Scandinavians. Arabs may come, too, although the current Qatar issue may limit this to, what...Qataris and Kuwaitis?
No increase of numbers of aircraft at TK, nor a new airport in Istanbul will solve this.

mafaky wrote:

Kudos to Turkish Airlines and Atatürk Airport.
For the second half expect positive growth and an overall growth of about 5%

......

Have a hearth:Let's be realistic and a bit more cautious, eh? Otherwise, it may turn out to be the "ignorant's courage!"

mafaky wrote:

.....

Now, if we apply this average value to 2017, we will see that IST (AHL) will close the year at a figure like 60.600.000 pax (all inclusive), which isn't a big improvement over the end-2016 (a very bad year's) closing figure. (Only a 0.3% increase)

With much optimism, let's assume end-2018 will show a 3% increase over 2017, end 2019 will show a 4% increase over end 2018, and thereafter each year the increasing trend will progressively increase by 1%. I also assume that by the end of 2019, Istanbul New Airport will fully replace IST (Atatürk) Airport for all domestic & international flights.

So, by:
end 2018: 60.600.000 x 1.03 = 62.418.000
end 2019: 62.418.000 x 1.04 = 64.915.000
end 2020: 64915.000 x 1.05 = 68.161.000
end 2021: 68.161.000 x 1.06 = 72.251.000
end 2022: 72.151.000 x 1.07 = 77.202.000
end 2023: 77.202.000 x 1.08 = 83.378.000
end 2024: 83.378.000 x 1.09 = 90.882.000


......

In all due respect; If you name my expectation for 2017 an ignorants courage, what to call your assumptions for 2018-2025 ?? What are the growth rates of 3%, 4%, 5%, 6%, 7%, 8%, 9% based on??
In Germany we say "Milchmädchen Rechnung" for such baseless calculations.

In 2015 IST handled 61.3 million Pax. It declined by 1.5% to 60.4 million in 2016 due to the many events in the year.
The declination began in July 2016 after the failed coup. So it is not far fetched to expect high growth rates for the rest of 2017.

The fast recovery of TK is clearly a sign for it.
Contrary to some opionions here on A.net TK is already again growing in Europe and USA.
After decreasing Pax numbers from Jan-Mar (remember TK laid off almost 10% of its capacities) Pax numbers are in rise again.

TK Pax Europe
Apr 1.711.495 +6.4%
May 1.881.864 +5.3%

TK Pax N.America (despite electronics ban)
Apr 188.279 +13.0%
May 194.592 +2.2%

TK Int-Int Transfers
Apr 1.968.413 +17.3%
May 1.814.683 +5.0%

To summarise, to expect IST to handle 63.5 million in 2017 is really reasonable...



So yes I agree with you, there is nothing better to wait and see what results come out than to do some assumptions or expectations one has.

MalevTU134 wrote:

Sure, Russians and Ukrainians may make up for some of the loss (for lack of better visa-free alternatives at a similar cost), but they spend far less than do Brits, Germans, Dutch and Scandinavians.
......

You still live in the 80ies/90ies, do you??
Coming everytime with this argument.

Turkey is much less dependent on Tourism income as it was in the 80ies or 90ies.
Compare share of tourism in GDP in the 80ies/90ies/2000 and 2010s.....

Tkfan wrote:

When the new Airport is operational (I expect it to be in 2020) TKs fleet is projected to be 20% larger and most of the Airlines you mentioned will return and new entrants, especially Asian Carriers, will serve IGA.

What reason would there be for an airline to return to the new airport after they just left IST? They didn't leave because IST is such a bad airport, but because of poor market conditions. That doesn't change with a new airport.

Hello all. I was just curious about the TK entertainment system. Some aircraft have a newer selection than others. Last year I flew on TC-JYM, TC-JSR, TC-JMI and TC-JVB. Obviously, JMI is way behind the other A321s. But, JSR and JVB had a newer selection of entertainment than JYM. I stand to be corrected on this but I think TC-JSR/JVB had a Batman v Superman background. I flew on TC-JRZ, TC-JMI, TC-JSM and TC-JYE the year before. I found that JRZ, JSM and JYE had the same selection as TC-JYM. So, my question is, which types of aircraft mostly have the newer selection. If there are exceptions, I would appreciate if it's possible to know which batch of aircraft have the older selection. Thanks in advance .

PS, I think I can assume TC-JSN to TC-JTR all have the new selection as well as the TC-JVx batch and the TC-JZx batch. I would also assume the 7 A333s recently delivered and TC-LJK to also have it. Also if it matters, I'm talking about economy.

Tkfan wrote:

MalevTU134 wrote:

Sure, Russians and Ukrainians may make up for some of the loss (for lack of better visa-free alternatives at a similar cost), but they spend far less than do Brits, Germans, Dutch and Scandinavians.
......

You still live in the 80ies/90ies, do you??
Coming everytime with this argument.

Turkey is much less dependent on Tourism income as it was in the 80ies or 90ies.
Compare share of tourism in GDP in the 80ies/90ies/2000 and 2010s.....

I wish I did...the hairdos and the music was much better back then...

I honestly can't remember having "come with this argument" before. But the disposable income of Western Europeans are far higher than that of Russians and Ukrainians. Google will give you the numbers.

I also can't remember having discussed the importance of tourism for Turkey, neither historically nor in the present.

Tkfan wrote:

You still live in the 80ies/90ies, do you??
Coming everytime with this argument.

Turkey is much less dependent on Tourism income as it was in the 80ies or 90ies.
Compare share of tourism in GDP in the 80ies/90ies/2000 and 2010s.....

You're plain wrong. The contribution of toerism to Turkeys's GDP is ~12% and this hasn't changed much over the years. See i.e.: https://knoema.com/atlas/Turkey/topics/ ... ent-of-GDP

You being fan of a certain airline might cloud your judgment.

MalevTU134 wrote:

But the disposable income of Western Europeans are far higher than that of Russians and Ukrainians. Google will give you the numbers.

I dont think anyone can argue about that. Russian/Ukrainian tourists are getting slashed prices from Turkish hoteliers who by the way are not that happy that their once lucrative steady income from Germans,French,British etc.. has been replaced by very low yield tourists who spend very little in the resorts.

Jetty wrote:

Tkfan wrote:

You still live in the 80ies/90ies, do you??
Coming everytime with this argument.

Turkey is much less dependent on Tourism income as it was in the 80ies or 90ies.
Compare share of tourism in GDP in the 80ies/90ies/2000 and 2010s.....

You're plain wrong. The contribution of toerism to Turkeys's GDP is ~12% and this hasn't changed much over the years. See i.e.: https://knoema.com/atlas/Turkey/topics/ ... ent-of-GDP

You being fan of a certain airline might cloud your judgment.

Unfortunately there is only data from the 2000s and and 2010s and not of the 80ies or 90ies. And also comprises the follow-on effects to GDP.

These follow-on effects are also valid be it a British tourist an Ukrainan tourist or a Kenyan Tourist.
So there is not much difference if western European tourists are replaced by Russian or Ukrainian.

The argument was about their expenditures. The change or fall of their expenditures is less significant nowadays than it was in the 80ies or 90ies.

Check that
https://de.statista.com/statistik/daten ... r-tuerkei/

And judge for yourself the significance

Tkfan wrote:

Jetty wrote:

Tkfan wrote:

You still live in the 80ies/90ies, do you??
Coming everytime with this argument.

Turkey is much less dependent on Tourism income as it was in the 80ies or 90ies.
Compare share of tourism in GDP in the 80ies/90ies/2000 and 2010s.....

You're plain wrong. The contribution of toerism to Turkeys's GDP is ~12% and this hasn't changed much over the years. See i.e.: https://knoema.com/atlas/Turkey/topics/ ... ent-of-GDP

You being fan of a certain airline might cloud your judgment.

Unfortunately there is only data from the 2000s and and 2010s and not of the 80ies or 90ies. And also comprises the follow-on effects to GDP.

These follow-on effects are also valid be it a British tourist an Ukrainan tourist or a Kenyan Tourist.
So there is not much difference if western European tourists are replaced by Russian or Ukrainian.

The argument was about their expenditures. The change or fall of their expenditures is less significant nowadays than it was in the 80ies or 90ies.

Check that
https://de.statista.com/statistik/daten ... r-tuerkei/

And judge for yourself the significance

You really confuse me...
First YOU introduce the subject of the significance of tourism for Turkey.
Then YOU urge us to look for figures from the 80s and 90s, including even asking me whether I still live in that epoque.
Then YOU claim there are no figures for those decades.
And then you top it off by saying there is not much difference if a tourist spends a lot or close to nothing at a resort.

I see, everything is fine, then, in the Turkish tourism industry...according to you.
I think most hoteliers in Turkey would disagree with you.

MalevTU134 wrote:

Tkfan wrote:

MalevTU134 wrote:

Sure, Russians and Ukrainians may make up for some of the loss (for lack of better visa-free alternatives at a similar cost), but they spend far less than do Brits, Germans, Dutch and Scandinavians.
......

You still live in the 80ies/90ies, do you??
Coming everytime with this argument.

Turkey is much less dependent on Tourism income as it was in the 80ies or 90ies.
Compare share of tourism in GDP in the 80ies/90ies/2000 and 2010s.....

I wish I did...the hairdos and the music was much better back then...

I honestly can't remember having "come with this argument" before. But the disposable income of Western Europeans are far higher than that of Russians and Ukrainians. Google will give you the numbers.

I also can't remember having discussed the importance of tourism for Turkey, neither historically nor in the present.

True I might mix you up with others
As it is nowadays en vogue bashing on Turkey and everything related to Turkey.... and as I am living in Germany, I am too much confronted with such arguments.
Turkey is really not dependent to the cheap All-Inclusive-Tourists from Germany or Netherlands or UK etc. Most of them think thats a way to punish Turkey and its president.
I am happy for them that they found a way to be happy

In all due respect; If you name my expectation for 2017 an ignorants courage, what to call your assumptions for 2018-2025 ?? What are the growth rates of 3%, 4%, 5%, 6%, 7%, 8%, 9% based on??
In Germany we say "Milchmädchen Rechnung" for such baseless calculations.

First, I did not aim you personally when I used that term "ignorant's courage"; I used it in the general sense for all those (maybe also including your goodself) having very high expectations from the New Istanbul Airport's traffic, on the mid-term future; i.e. say between years 2020-2025. If we were making this discussion during 2014 or so, yes I would probably also have much higher expectations but that's NOW a cruel & crude HISTORY!...

The improvements in TK's figures cannot be the sole proof of New Airport's prosperity (or the current IST/AHL's growing) on the short to mid-term future.

The growth rates I used for my analysis are simple enough to understand for anyone having some engineering background; if you don't have such background it may be harder for you to comprehend.

So, we'll all have to be patient a bit more and see the end-of the year results for IST (AHL), and in the meanwhile cross our fingers that a further terrorist attack or some unfortunate incident like the Reina attack will not be repeated!... My gutfeel is a figure like 62-62.5 million will be the very best that can be expected, but really have no hopes for something like 63.5 million! Leaving the tourism incomes etc., aside first consider the following facts for IST (or rather, Istanbul in general):
a) The only conceivable tourist potential has now been limited to the Arabs and maybe to Greeks on certain periods.
b) Turks have less money to spend, many of them now prefer to travel from SAW for domestic travelling where LCC operations are at prime (while IST has negligible domestic LCC operations with the exception of OnurAir and even more limited Pegasus/Izair activity). TK, regretfully, is now even more dependent on transit traffic rather than O & D, for IST/AHL.
c) Short term staying business travellers has also decreased (foreigners don't want to come in, Turks have squeezed budgets to go out).
d) Expats (mainly) in Europe try to avoid Istanbul transit as far as possible, for their homeland visits.
e) Many of the foreign airlines who have abandoned IST recently, have no plans to re-start for W17.

I assume you are a Turkish origin but resident in Germany: well, you are really NOT in our boots (I mean those living in Turkey).

MalevTU134 wrote:

You really confuse me...
First YOU introduce the subject of the significance of tourism for Turkey.
Then YOU urge us to look for figures from the 80s and 90s, including even asking me whether I still live in that epoque.
Then YOU claim there are no figures for those decades.
And then you top it off by saying there is not much difference if a tourist spends a lot or close to nothing at a resort.

I see, everything is fine, then, in the Turkish tourism industry...according to you.
I think most hoteliers in Turkey would disagree with you.

Seems you are really confused....
I wrote about the link "Jetty" provided. There were just the data of overall effect to GDP beginning 2005.

And most important I talk about the "In"significance of tourism income nowadays.
Its significance faded away in the 2000s and 2010s.

mafaky wrote:

The growth rates I used for my analysis are simple enough to understand for anyone having some engineering background; if you don't have such background it may be harder for you to comprehend.

Well there we go. I studied Economics (VWL) and I am more used to these kind of statistics. Therefore to assume or calculate with the rates you did makes no sense and also not to understand for anybody.

Lets wait for next week when TK release its June Traffic results. We might have a clue.