ZK-NBT
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - July 2017

Thu Jul 13, 2017 9:07 am

Zkpilot wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:
Zkpilot wrote:
Have heard that NZ will be doing YVR 787 as previously mentioned but is simply waiting on regulatory approval.
IAH will be with the new 789 premium config (code 78N)
SFO will likely go 78N
LAX to remain 77W
reconfig on the 77W is going ahead nicely and despite having more premium economy seats the new premium economy weighs approximately half a ton less than the old space seats which is a very significant weight saving (especially when considering more seats are being put in).


Regulatory approval? Or more 789's? I'm guessing the 302 seater could make YVR-AKL with full pax and some freight?

They are at this stage getting 4 78N's as you call them, personally I think they could end up with 23-25 787's with 10-12 777X's, maybe 778's with a similar capacity to the 77W to be used to LAX and ULH? 78N's to SFO is interesting, 77W's to IAH when this happens? Or HKG?

No 772's planned to leave anytime soon, reconfigure more for leisure use with less premium more economy? Fuel burn would be higher and might make a difference on longer sectors like PVG to profitability, all good when full but low season.

Maybe the 772's more on shorter routes like PER/HNL maybe SIN in current configuration where fuel burn difference isn't a noticeable, a couple of current 789's reconfigured to more 78N to allow YVR/SFO to go 78N?

3 77W's done, taking a break on refits for a few weeks during school holidays, remaining 4 should be complete by peak season starting December.

Those were the words used... I'm not too sure what in particular needs to be approved. Perhaps they meant the new configuration needs to have the standard approval from the CAA here?
Yes there will be 4x 78N as per current order book.
Destinations for them will be IAH, YVR, SFO and even possibly EZE since apparently NZ is getting a lot of business traffic. Now the first 3 would take up 5 frames between them so I'm not quite sure what the plan is there. Certainly during peak periods we could see some up gauging to 77E. I think the 77E will be spending more time doing Japan flights with total flights there going to KIX x3, HND x3, NRT x10.
Other thing is that NZ is still keen on MNL but the problem is at the MNL end (government I think).
So yeah some exciting times ahead for NZ.
I also noticed that the Argentina government has back flipped and wants most international flights to go into EZE rather than the other airport. Should give NZ more connection options to South America and through to Europe.


MNL or the country in general seems to have been a bit unstable lately, not sure NZ will go there anytime soon?

The 77E went to NRT last year, it was more because it gave them more flexibility and they didn't have enough 789's, HND gets it this year but it spends 16hrs on the ground, better to use the 789's elsewhere where utilisation is higher, again they had plenty of slack in the 772 fleet so HND and HNL needed to change over to free up 789's to go elsewhere. Pretty sure NRT is daily with the extra 3 flights going to HND unless NRT increases aswell, there was a comment a while back saying they were interested in increasing KIX, nothing so far.
 
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Zkpilot
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - July 2017

Thu Jul 13, 2017 11:05 am

ZK-NBT wrote:
Zkpilot wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:

Regulatory approval? Or more 789's? I'm guessing the 302 seater could make YVR-AKL with full pax and some freight?

They are at this stage getting 4 78N's as you call them, personally I think they could end up with 23-25 787's with 10-12 777X's, maybe 778's with a similar capacity to the 77W to be used to LAX and ULH? 78N's to SFO is interesting, 77W's to IAH when this happens? Or HKG?

No 772's planned to leave anytime soon, reconfigure more for leisure use with less premium more economy? Fuel burn would be higher and might make a difference on longer sectors like PVG to profitability, all good when full but low season.

Maybe the 772's more on shorter routes like PER/HNL maybe SIN in current configuration where fuel burn difference isn't a noticeable, a couple of current 789's reconfigured to more 78N to allow YVR/SFO to go 78N?

3 77W's done, taking a break on refits for a few weeks during school holidays, remaining 4 should be complete by peak season starting December.

Those were the words used... I'm not too sure what in particular needs to be approved. Perhaps they meant the new configuration needs to have the standard approval from the CAA here?
Yes there will be 4x 78N as per current order book.
Destinations for them will be IAH, YVR, SFO and even possibly EZE since apparently NZ is getting a lot of business traffic. Now the first 3 would take up 5 frames between them so I'm not quite sure what the plan is there. Certainly during peak periods we could see some up gauging to 77E. I think the 77E will be spending more time doing Japan flights with total flights there going to KIX x3, HND x3, NRT x10.
Other thing is that NZ is still keen on MNL but the problem is at the MNL end (government I think).
So yeah some exciting times ahead for NZ.
I also noticed that the Argentina government has back flipped and wants most international flights to go into EZE rather than the other airport. Should give NZ more connection options to South America and through to Europe.


MNL or the country in general seems to have been a bit unstable lately, not sure NZ will go there anytime soon?

The 77E went to NRT last year, it was more because it gave them more flexibility and they didn't have enough 789's, HND gets it this year but it spends 16hrs on the ground, better to use the 789's elsewhere where utilisation is higher, again they had plenty of slack in the 772 fleet so HND and HNL needed to change over to free up 789's to go elsewhere. Pretty sure NRT is daily with the extra 3 flights going to HND unless NRT increases aswell, there was a comment a while back saying they were interested in increasing KIX, nothing so far.

Yeah Philippines are going through a rough patch but that is mostly to the South.

NZ would like to go daily with HND but it is very hard to get slots it took years to get into HND and then NZ got lucky and swapped for the early slot. Part of the condition of HND was to increase NRT and add another city (KIX).
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - July 2017

Thu Jul 13, 2017 11:37 am

The Philippines is expanding rapidly as a tourist destination every time I go back. I was there while Abu Saif was kicking off in Mindinao earlier this year, and for all the tourist centres life goes on completely unaffected. Duterte runs a tight ship against those terrorists, so I have no qualms in visiting, and neither do scores of Singaporeans,Koreans,Japanese and in creasingly Chinese tourists,
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tealnz
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - July 2017

Thu Jul 13, 2017 11:59 am

ZK-NBT wrote:
The 77E went to NRT last year, it was more because it gave them more flexibility and they didn't have enough 789's, HND gets it this year but it spends 16hrs on the ground, better to use the 789's elsewhere where utilisation is higher, again they had plenty of slack in the 772 fleet so HND and HNL needed to change over to free up 789's to go elsewhere. Pretty sure NRT is daily with the extra 3 flights going to HND unless NRT increases aswell, there was a comment a while back saying they were interested in increasing KIX, nothing so far.


The main driver for putting the 77E back onto the NRT route was the need for premium capacity. Lack of seats up front had been a big issue with the 789s. For HND I expect it's a combination of premium demand (there will be strong business demand, even for three services a week) and the fact that the 77Es are heavily depreciated (the accountants wouldn't fancy leaving a newish 789 on the ground there for half a day).
 
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - July 2017

Fri Jul 14, 2017 1:38 am

tealnz wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:
The 77E went to NRT last year, it was more because it gave them more flexibility and they didn't have enough 789's, HND gets it this year but it spends 16hrs on the ground, better to use the 789's elsewhere where utilisation is higher, again they had plenty of slack in the 772 fleet so HND and HNL needed to change over to free up 789's to go elsewhere. Pretty sure NRT is daily with the extra 3 flights going to HND unless NRT increases aswell, there was a comment a while back saying they were interested in increasing KIX, nothing so far.


The main driver for putting the 77E back onto the NRT route was the need for premium capacity. Lack of seats up front had been a big issue with the 789s. For HND I expect it's a combination of premium demand (there will be strong business demand, even for three services a week) and the fact that the 77Es are heavily depreciated (the accountants wouldn't fancy leaving a newish 789 on the ground there for half a day).

Freight is a big thing with these flights also. NZ (and some other airlines) makes more money from belly freight than it does from ticketed passengers for every dollar spent by a considerable margin.
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globalcabotage
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - July 2017

Fri Jul 14, 2017 1:47 am

Zkpilot wrote:
sunrisevalley wrote:
jhsusman wrote:
Anyone hearing anything regarding a NZ AKL to Denver (DEN) announcement? I thought it was being discussed. . .


DEN's altitude and the resulting reduction in TOW makes DEN-AKL barely max passenger load. I doubt if it is a possibility.

How about seasonal (1DEC-31MAR)? In Winter DEN average temps range from -9degC to +10degC and are typically around freezing in the evenings which is when the flight would be departing. That would have the effect of making it more like 2000ft than 4000ft.
Eventually something like the 778 should have enough guts to operate it fine year round.


ORD is expected to be announced next spring.
 
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - July 2017

Fri Jul 14, 2017 2:29 am

globalcabotage wrote:
ORD is expected to be announced next spring.

Expected by who - or is it just the A-Net rumour mill? NZ spring 2017 (ie Sep-ish), or US spring 2018, or NZ spring 2018? And for services to start when?
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mariner
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - July 2017

Fri Jul 14, 2017 2:37 am

globalcabotage wrote:
ORD is expected to be announced next spring.


Expected by whom?

Even if it's true, I would be very surprised if anyone from the company has leaked it - anyone in a position to know, that is. It would be more than their job is worth, a heads-up to the competition. It's why people sign confidentiality clauses.

For anyone else, its only guesswork and speculation.

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Zkpilot
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - July 2017

Fri Jul 14, 2017 2:59 am

mariner wrote:
globalcabotage wrote:
ORD is expected to be announced next spring.


Expected by whom?

Even if it's true, I would be very surprised if anyone from the company has leaked it - anyone in a position to know, that is. It would be more than their job is worth, a heads-up to the competition. It's why people sign confidentiality clauses.

For anyone else, its only guesswork and speculation.

mariner

QF is also rumoured to be eyeing up ORD but that will have to wait until they have all their initial 789s and/or 77X/A350.

As for NZ they have publicly stated they are looking at another US destination and really the only viable options are ORD, DEN, LAS, SEA/PDX in that order (NYC will have to wait for 77X/78L/A350). DEN has performance issues, LAS is too small and too close to LAX, SEA is close to YVR (although YVR has capacity issues so that could help), PDX is probably too small a market. Somewhere like ATL or MIA is too limited and too far with little benefit. MEX is another possibility - but also has performance issues (although not as bad as DEN).
ORD serves a large market, has a lot of connections so makes the most sense.
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - July 2017

Fri Jul 14, 2017 3:28 am

Zkpilot wrote:
As for NZ they have publicly stated they are looking at another US destination and really the only viable options are ORD, DEN, LAS, SEA/PDX in that order (NYC will have to wait for 77X/78L/A350). DEN has performance issues, LAS is too small and too close to LAX, SEA is close to YVR (although YVR has capacity issues so that could help), PDX is probably too small a market. Somewhere like ATL or MIA is too limited and too far with little benefit. MEX is another possibility - but also has performance issues (although not as bad as DEN). ORD serves a large market, has a lot of connections so makes the most sense.


Do you have any idea whether new aircraft (789/359/77X) would make much difference for the DEN/MEX performance issues? At a minimum I assume NZ would want to be able to uplift full pax non-stop to Auckland all year round.
 
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mariner
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - July 2017

Fri Jul 14, 2017 3:30 am

Zkpilot wrote:
QF is also rumoured to be eyeing up ORD but that will have to wait until they have all their initial 789s and/or 77X/A350.

As for NZ they have publicly stated they are looking at another US destination and really the only viable options are ORD, DEN, LAS, SEA/PDX in that order (NYC will have to wait for 77X/78L/A350). DEN has performance issues, LAS is too small and too close to LAX, SEA is close to YVR (although YVR has capacity issues so that could help), PDX is probably too small a market. Somewhere like ATL or MIA is too limited and too far with little benefit. MEX is another possibility - but also has performance issues (although not as bad as DEN).
ORD serves a large market, has a lot of connections so makes the most sense.


I'm very aware of the case for ORD as a possible contender, and for Qantas, but it hasn't been announced by the company and until and unless the company does so, it is speculation.

I suspect that ORD has performances issues, too - it may be nearer to sea level than DEN but its also further away - so I'll wait and see what the company decides instead of jumping the gun.

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ZK-NBT
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - July 2017

Fri Jul 14, 2017 3:51 am

There's are 2 premium 789's arriving late 2018, my best guess is that is what would go to ORD so an announcement late this year for a December 2018 start but as you say speculation until announced.
 
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - July 2017

Fri Jul 14, 2017 5:03 am

Do think we have an chance of see the last few 789 options firmed up later this year, allowing the 77E to become the new 763.
 
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - July 2017

Fri Jul 14, 2017 11:19 am

I'm wondering if a ORD route would be served by 77W if the suggestion that SFO will switch to 789 turns out to be correct.
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ZK-NBT
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - July 2017

Fri Jul 14, 2017 12:13 pm

zkncj wrote:
Do think we have an chance of see the last few 789 options firmed up later this year, allowing the 77E to become the new 763.


I doubt it personally, there is plenty of slack in the long haul fleet during the day between long hauls and enough most of the time to cover the afternoon AKL-SYD/MEL flights. Not to say they won't exercise some 789's.

DavidByrne wrote:
I'm wondering if a ORD route would be served by 77W if the suggestion that SFO will switch to 789 turns out to be correct.


Hmm, you never no.
 
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - July 2017

Fri Jul 14, 2017 5:38 pm

DavidByrne wrote:
I'm wondering if a ORD route would be served by 77W if the suggestion that SFO will switch to 789 turns out to be correct.

It would have the wriggle room in the payload ( ~37t versus 31t) that the 275-seat 789 does not have by converting unused passenger load into cargo load.
 
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - July 2017

Fri Jul 14, 2017 11:39 pm

sunrisevalley wrote:
DavidByrne wrote:
I'm wondering if a ORD route would be served by 77W if the suggestion that SFO will switch to 789 turns out to be correct.

It would have the wriggle room in the payload ( ~37t versus 31t) that the 275-seat 789 does not have by converting unused passenger load into cargo load.

Yes, I thought I read somewhere that over a stage length like AKL-ORD the 77W was pretty much unbeatable. I reckon this could well be NZ's next move.
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - July 2017

Sat Jul 15, 2017 12:25 am

sunrisevalley wrote:
DEN's altitude and the resulting reduction in TOW makes DEN-AKL barely max passenger load. I doubt if it is a possibility.


It has to be more of a possibility than ORD - unless the fleet has changed dramatically in the past couple of years.

We know - because they said so - that Brazil (GIG or GRU) was a problem for the return journey to AKL:

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news ... d=11541576

"Brazil was considered but turned out to be operationally challenging. While prevailing tailwinds would make it easy enough to fly there, coming back could be tricky. About 20 per cent of the time, the airline would be quite severely constrained by the load it could carry."

Yet ORD is further from AKL than either GIG or GRU, by about 1000 km, so why would ORD not be equally severely load constrained on the return?

I'm no Tech Wallah, I have trouble with an on-off switch, but if one is true I don't see why the other is false.

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ZK-NBT
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - July 2017

Sat Jul 15, 2017 12:50 am

mariner wrote:
sunrisevalley wrote:
DEN's altitude and the resulting reduction in TOW makes DEN-AKL barely max passenger load. I doubt if it is a possibility.


It has to be more of a possibility than ORD - unless the fleet has changed dramatically in the past couple of years.

We know - because they said so - that Brazil (GIG or GRU) was a problem for the return journey to AKL:

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news ... d=11541576

"Brazil was considered but turned out to be operationally challenging. While prevailing tailwinds would make it easy enough to fly there, coming back could be tricky. About 20 per cent of the time, the airline would be quite severely constrained by the load it could carry."

Yet ORD is further from AKL than either GIG or GRU, by about 1000 km, so why would ORD not be equally severely load constrained on the return?

I'm no Tech Wallah, I have trouble with an on-off switch, but if one is true I don't see why the other is false.

mariner


GIG/GRU probably wouldn't offer as many connections as ORD? So not enough O&D to Brazil yet for a 77W or a restricted 789 to make it viable?

Back to ZKpilot earlier say a 3-5 weekly 77W to ORD then the next 2 789 premium in 2018 for YVR? And I'd say SFO gets a 77W when it's not on ORD days and 772's the other days?
 
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - July 2017

Sat Jul 15, 2017 1:29 am

ZK-NBT wrote:
GIG/GRU probably wouldn't offer as many connections as ORD? So not enough O&D to Brazil yet for a 77W or a restricted 789 to make it viable?


I don't know what the number of connections have to do with the technical capability of the aircraft.

The word is that GRU or GIG-AKL would require a considerable payload hit. So why wouldn't ORD-AKL, which is a further distance, have a similar or greater payload hit?

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NZ6
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - July 2017

Sat Jul 15, 2017 2:55 am

ZK-NBT wrote:
zkncj wrote:
Do think we have an chance of see the last few 789 options firmed up later this year, allowing the 77E to become the new 763.


I doubt it personally, there is plenty of slack in the long haul fleet during the day between long hauls and enough most of the time to cover the afternoon AKL-SYD/MEL flights. Not to say they won't exercise some 789's.



I can tell you for fact, NZ has 6 remaining options for the 787 and it is expected/planned that they will fill these options and I expect that to be announced before the end of the calendar year, I would not be surprised if they announce this along with their end of year financials. It is also a fact that the 6 remaining options will arrive in the new premium config.

That means a couple of things.
* Does NZ reduce it's 772 fleet by not renewing leases? or do they simply replace the 772?
* Do you see more 787's into N.A
* Does config 2 make ORD viable, I understood it wasn't viable on the 772 when it was last seriously considered.
* Growing EZE, YVR, IAH into year round daily

* MNL is still desired but has been put on ice and I don't believe is being pursued too hard at this end.
* South America x2 is an option but I would think they would like to see EZE fully established and daily first based on learnings from BJS.
* China is a clear option but there is strong competition now.
* India, Korea and TPE are all unlikely.
* SIN and HKG could see double daily or up to 10 per week each

Then there is the US
* LAS is too close to LAX in my mind but has been considered previously.
* PHX is an option for the mid south west
* DEN is a UA Hub but altitude is a factor.
* ORD is ideal if it can work.

I guess the point is 6x 787, unknown delivery date but likely 2020+(ish). 8 x 772 recently refitted - will be 4 years after retro fit in 2020 and 15 years old. Are they to completely replace (decrease in AC), replace some or completely new and additional AC?

My guess is a slow replacement of the 772 and you'll see a 77X or A350 order within the next 18 months to replace 77W and remaining owned 772

Long haul fleet 2025+

77X/A350-1000 X 12
787-9 * 19
 
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - July 2017

Sat Jul 15, 2017 4:32 am

NZ6 wrote:
* SIN and HKG could see double daily or up to 10 per week each

I suggested this some time ago, but was pooh-poohed by many at the time who were in favour of new routes..

Something has to give, either EZE gets retimed or Asia does, indeed both probably do if they want to build up a transit hub up. That is where the multiple daily comes in. Once they have a slot, it makes it much easier to negotiate a new slot and then trade them until they get the desired one. Now that EZE is getting all the international connections over AEP 50% in 2018 and 50% 2019 I almost guarantee you that by the end of 2018 EZE will be daily without any further growth strategy needed by NZ. If you add in the transit traffic that opens to Brazil that will help fill above and below deck.

It makes a huge difference for Australians due reciprocity visa requirement for entry into Argentina (necessary for AEP transfer but not EZE). The USA is important, but other than IAH is not growing as rapidly.

I feel confident IAH will become a 77W /77X/A350 capacity in due course, the 787 doesn't lift enough non containerized cargo per flight but it does allow for daily, which brings in more cargo contracts and the fuel bill will be lower so that will help balance out pros/cons. Same as the 772 was on EZE, it seems just an interim measure until something better becomes available.
The USA has recently returned to secure gate lounges, passport checks and additional screening as it was after 9/11 and 7/7. That means a return to the gates 6, 8,9,10 arrangement at AKL. This may well reduce the options for growth to the USA until further down the AIAL growth plan.

I have to say I am not sure the options for 6 additional 787s will be taken up prior to a new order for "longhaul" capacity, I think they are after something to replace both 77E/77W fully and an aircraft that can fill in better for freight and premium demand and I think you will see the current 787 fleet relegated and replaced on some mature established markets and the 787s used to start multiple daily flights frequency on others which will negate any loss of outright cargo uplift eg: SIN/SYD/RAR/NAN/MEL/PER/APW/TBU/HNL. Now that it has been in service for 3 years and teething issues refined It has shown itself to be a worthy 767 replacement, and I certainly see the 787 fits a shorthaul turnaround better (less to unload, less to load, less premium seats and less to fuel in 75min turnaround).
I would also hazard a guess that in fact the entire fleet (or majority of) may be retrofitted to spec 2 over time.
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zkncj
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - July 2017

Sat Jul 15, 2017 4:55 am

Could an seasonal AKL-HKT work? with an 77E or 789?
 
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - July 2017

Sat Jul 15, 2017 8:05 am

zkncj wrote:
Could an seasonal AKL-HKT work? with an 77E or 789?

Current feed is via SIN for HKT. Codeshare representation with TG via BKK also. It's possible, but I don't feel prior to MNL.
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NZ6
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - July 2017

Sat Jul 15, 2017 8:32 am

aerorobnz wrote:
zkncj wrote:
Could an seasonal AKL-HKT work? with an 77E or 789?

Current feed is via SIN for HKT. Codeshare representation with TG via BKK also. It's possible, but I don't feel prior to MNL.


Would have said the same about SGN prior to that.

When you look at the on-going strategy (and given the results I don't see changing even if Luxon departs).The only realistic countries are

New Markets....
Thailand (Bangkok, Phuket)
Philippines
Malaysia
Taiwan
South Korea
India
Chile
Brazil
South Africa (doesn't allow Auckland to Hub to anything)

Existing Markets...
China
Japan (Nagoya, Sendai etc)
Indonesia (Jakarta)
USA (ORD,DEN)


Realistically, I can only see USA, China and South America bringing the growth.
 
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mariner
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - July 2017

Sat Jul 15, 2017 9:34 am

NZ6 wrote:
Realistically, I can only see USA, China and South America bringing the growth.


The stress, by Luxon, is on North and South America, and the need for longer range aircraft for those missions. I assume it's why he didn't put too much stress on China at Cancun, it doesn't need longer range aircraft.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news ... d=11870587

"Air New Zealand to go shopping for new ultra-long range planes. Air New Zealand will go shopping for their next wide body planes from the end of the year as it eyes ultra long range routes into the North or South America.

Chief executive Christopher Luxon said the new aircraft would replace the airline's eight 777-200 which although refurbished were bought around the mid-2000s. ''By the end of the year we'll get clear about what aircraft are out there,''Luxon said on the sidelines of an aviation conference in Cancun, Mexico.

''Really our objective is to move deeper into North America and South America.''


"Deeper" into South America can only realistically mean GIG or GRU (although I'd add LIM to that list) while "deeper" into North America presumably means the heavily populated north east coast - specifically New York City. They may eventually have interest in BOS, PHL or maybe ATL one day, and deep down the road maybe YYZ, but New York is the big and primary enchilada, knocking everything else into a cocked hat.

There are other interesting destinations and I hope they wouldn't be forgotten, at least by the airline, but the "glamorous" appeal of NYC is such that everywhere else would pretty much be lost in the shade.

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DavidByrne
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - July 2017

Sat Jul 15, 2017 9:51 am

What I'm unclear about is the apparent limitations on the 789 in NZ service while QF seems happy to schedule them on PER-LHR, which is a seriously long distance. Is the QF setup that different from NZ's, or have they different priorities for pax and freight?
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - July 2017

Sat Jul 15, 2017 11:28 am

DavidByrne wrote:
What I'm unclear about is the apparent limitations on the 789 in NZ service while QF seems happy to schedule them on PER-LHR, which is a seriously long distance. Is the QF setup that different from NZ's, or have they different priorities for pax and freight?


I do agree with you, while QF with PER-LHR and UA with LAX-SIN are very long I'm sure they won't carry any freight and may block a handful of seats they seem a fair bit longer than anything NZ would attempt with the aircraft. NZ probably want a full pax load and some freight? I can understand the 302 seat 789 not being used to LAX/SFO it doesn't have anywhere near enough seats up front.

As for Boeing having maxed out the 789, I can't really believe that for such a new frame, sure they may need to build a new landing gear or something but if that improves the aircraft enough to make it worth it surely they have to do it. The 77X is a step up and the A350 looks a great plane but I remain pretty unconvinced that they will buy it.
 
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - July 2017

Sat Jul 15, 2017 12:37 pm

QF28 SCL-SYD diverted to CHC this afternoon, looks like a medical diversion

http://theqantassource.com/qantas-b747- ... diversion/
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PA515
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - July 2017

Sat Jul 15, 2017 4:57 pm

NZ6 wrote:
I can tell you for fact, NZ has 6 remaining options for the 787 and it is expected/planned that they will fill these options and I expect that to be announced before the end of the calendar year, I would not be surprised if they announce this along with their end of year financials. It is also a fact that the 6 remaining options will arrive in the new premium config.

I also understood there were six 789 options left at a good discount to the list price, however during the 01 June 2017 Investor Day presentation, Chief Financial Officer Rob McDonald said the 777-200ER replacement would start from around 2022 and if they required wide-body units for the early part of next decade they could do that with operating leases. He said they have an option on a wide-body operating lease in 2019 and another in 2020. What that means is they want the 777-8 / 777-9 or the A350-900 / A350-1000 instead of more 789s.

It's possible some A350-900 could be introduced to the fleet before 2022 in order to achieve earlier NZCAA EDTO compliance and to substitute for any operating leases on extra 789s.

PA515
 
sunrisevalley
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - July 2017

Sun Jul 16, 2017 1:24 am

There are about 6 posts over the past 24 hrs that call for responses. Starting with the 789 and any implied deficiencies. First I am certain that NZ are operating these at something less than the maximum allowable MTOW. Probably at the MTOW when they took delivery of the first one. Thus they don’t have the max. payload/range possible. Not to say they couldn’t add the extra TOW.
I don’t understand the alleged add on problems of GIG/GRU. GRU is at an elev.of 2661 ft.. The takeoff tables suggest this has no effect on the TOW of the 789. Radar24 gives the average time EZE-AKL as 12hr.40m. Interpolating that to GIG-AKL gives 15hr 04m for a not inconsiderable payload of ~38t.
In my view ORD would be best served by a 77W but extrapolating a typical LAX-AKL day of 12hr 20min. gives a 15hr 30m day for a payload of ~ 35t. However I wonder if this sector time is a little ideal for those days when the westerly winds across the plains hit 60 or 70k plus.
As for the fleet of the future the 78X has promise but we need to wait and see how it weighs in. I understand that for Asia, PVG can be tight because of freight demands. An increase in frequency could help here or some 77W rotations each week. Flying deeper into the America’s suggests to me a need for a 8300 to 8500nm ESAD plane Reading the “behind the firewall” 3 part Leeham series on QF SYD-LHR gives a good idea of the relative merits of the 777-8 and the A359UHL. out to 9500nm ESAD. The 777-8 is pretty hard to beat.
 
sunrisevalley
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - July 2017

Sun Jul 16, 2017 1:37 am

PA515 wrote:
however during the 01 June 2017 Investor Day presentation, Chief Financial Officer Rob McDonald said the 777-200ER replacement would start from around 2022 and if they required wide-body units for the early part of next decade they could do that with operating leases. He said they have an option on a wide-body operating lease in 2019 and another in 2020. What that means is they want the 777-8 / 777-9 or the A350-900 / A350-1000 instead of more 789s.PA515


My view is that for this time frame these leases would be for 777-9's . Perhaps to replace the two 77W leases that run out about that time.
 
sunrisevalley
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - July 2017

Sun Jul 16, 2017 1:43 am

ZK-NBT wrote:

I do agree with you, while QF with PER-LHR and UA with LAX-SIN are very long I'm sure they won't carry any freight and may block a handful of seats they seem a fair bit longer than anything NZ would attempt with the aircraft. .


UA1 to SIN is going out full in J and typically 10 to 13 seats available in Y. UA are doing very nicely on this sector!!
 
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - July 2017

Sun Jul 16, 2017 1:50 am

A350-900 and B777-8 seem the only realistic contenders for AKL-NYC. With the 777-9 being the logical 77W replacement, this one is Boeing's to lose.
77West - AW109S - BE90 - JS31 - B1900 - Q300 - ATR72 - DC9-30 - MD80 - B733 - A320 - B738 - A300-B4 - B773 - B77W
 
globalcabotage
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - July 2017

Sun Jul 16, 2017 2:04 am

mariner wrote:
globalcabotage wrote:
ORD is expected to be announced next spring.


Expected by whom?

Even if it's true, I would be very surprised if anyone from the company has leaked it - anyone in a position to know, that is. It would be more than their job is worth, a heads-up to the competition. It's why people sign confidentiality clauses.

For anyone else, its only guesswork and speculation.

mariner


Actually NZ is announcing DTW and BOS.
 
PA515
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - July 2017

Sun Jul 16, 2017 2:40 am

sunrisevalley wrote:
PA515 wrote:
however during the 01 June 2017 Investor Day presentation, Chief Financial Officer Rob McDonald said the 777-200ER replacement would start from around 2022 and if they required wide-body units for the early part of next decade they could do that with operating leases. He said they have an option on a wide-body operating lease in 2019 and another in 2020. What that means is they want the 777-8 / 777-9 or the A350-900 / A350-1000 instead of more 789s.PA515


My view is that for this time frame these leases would be for 777-9's . Perhaps to replace the two 77W leases that run out about that time.

I don't think so. The first delivery of a 777-9 is scheduled for Dec 2019, which would rule out Air NZ getting one on lease in 2019, and the first 777-8 will be two years after the first 777-9.

Also, no leasing companies have announced any 777-9 or 777-8 orders. There are two unidentified orders of 10 (04 Jun 2015) and 20 (19 Jun 2017), but from memory all the leasing companies announce their orders. ALC for example is a listed public company and has to advise shareholders.

PA515
 
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - July 2017

Sun Jul 16, 2017 2:48 am

globalcabotage wrote:
mariner wrote:
globalcabotage wrote:
ORD is expected to be announced next spring.


Expected by whom?

Even if it's true, I would be very surprised if anyone from the company has leaked it - anyone in a position to know, that is. It would be more than their job is worth, a heads-up to the competition. It's why people sign confidentiality clauses.

For anyone else, its only guesswork and speculation.

mariner


Actually NZ is announcing DTW and BOS.

Pretty sure DTW is a no-go because Delta will use their ties with Air NZ (from the 1990s marketing agreement and their current partnership with Air NZ partner Virgin Australia) to ensure DTW doesn't get this service - so my money will be on ATL and MSP, followed by JAX and JAC.

:duck:

V/F
"It is not for him to pride himself who loveth his own country, but rather for him who loveth the whole world. The earth is but one country, and mankind its citizens." - Bahá'u'lláh
 
ZKOAB
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - July 2017

Sun Jul 16, 2017 3:20 am

There was talk about the next 2x ATR's back in NZ thread 183: viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1345401&p=19152675&hilit=mvp#p19152675
They were due to be delivered this and next month but there's no recent mention of it anywhere.
Does anyone have any news?
 
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - July 2017

Sun Jul 16, 2017 3:22 am

I'm no load controller, but it is fairly obvious that the ""deficiencies" that have been discussed are specific to the requirements of NZ. not to the overall specification of the 789,
above deck
QF 42 Business; 28 Premium Economy; 166 Economy = 236.
UA 44 Business 88 Premium Economy 116 Economy = 252
NZ 18 Business 21 Premium Economy 262 Economy = 302
NZ 27 Business 33 Premium Economy 215 Economy = 275
Using a simple average passenger and bag weight of 120KG You will see the following in kilos. Gives you quite an insight on how much extra weight NZ hauls around before it has to think of adding cargo or indeed fuel to make up the TOW..
QF 28300kg
UA 30200kg
NZ 36200kg and 33000kg
When you're talking the fuel efficiency of a 787 5-8t worth of fuel takes you a lot further in actual flying time probably at least another 3-4hrs at 4500lb an hour, especially if you also make the decision to just take lighter cargo/mail in AKEs which fills the space but not the same kind of weight density as PMCs/PAGs which can be 4-6.5t each easily. I accept this is perhaps a bit anecdotal, but it illustrates the point well enough.

As you will be no doubt be aware NZ has on their 777s a rear hold door 8ft 10 in vs SQ/VA and others which only have the smaller 6 ft 8" door which allows pallets in rear, as opposed to AKEs.. This gives some idea. that in fact that kind of freight is regularly uplifted by NZ or else they would not have paid extra for that option.
Flown to 128 Airports in 48 Countries on 81 Operators. Visited 56 Countries and counting. Wanderlust is like Syphilis, once you have the itch it's too late for treatment.
 
Mr AirNZ
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - July 2017

Sun Jul 16, 2017 3:44 am

ZKOAB wrote:
There was talk about the next 2x ATR's back in NZ thread 183: viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1345401&p=19152675&hilit=mvp#p19152675
They were due to be delivered this and next month but there's no recent mention of it anywhere.
Does anyone have any news?

One 500 retirement this month and a 600 delivery each during August and September.
aerorobnz wrote:
When you're talking the fuel efficiency of a 787 5-8t worth of fuel takes you a lot further in actual flying time probably at least another 3-4hrs at 4500lb an hour

She might be an efficient machine but not quite that efficient. Still talking 4.5-5.5 tonnes an hour average over a flight depending on stage length and zero fuel weight.
 
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - July 2017

Sun Jul 16, 2017 3:50 am

globalcabotage wrote:
Actually NZ is announcing DTW and BOS.


Well, now, that's more like it - LOL - It may not happen but its fun speculation.

A conspiracy theorist would say that it depends on the blood - bad or otherwise - that developed between Mr. Luxon and Delta in the Virgin Australia days. Does Delta think a deal with Air NZ for trans-Pacific might be more interesting than a deal with Virgin?

I'd be pretty sure Delta would stick with Virgin, but you never know. I thought Polynesian/Samoa would stick with Virgin, too, and that's fallen apart. Image

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PA515
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - July 2017

Sun Jul 16, 2017 3:52 am

ZKOAB wrote:
There was talk about the next 2x ATR's back in NZ thread 183: viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1345401&p=19152675&hilit=mvp#p19152675
They were due to be delivered this and next month but there's no recent mention of it anywhere.
Does anyone have any news?


ZK-MVP is c/n 1444 (F-WWEQ) and had it's first flight on 26 Jun or earlier. I expect it to be delivered in the next few days. No photos that I could find.

Over the last seven days flightradar24 has F-WWEQ doing a 13 min flight on 10 Jul and a 21 min flight on 13 Jul.

PA515
 
ZKOAB
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - July 2017

Sun Jul 16, 2017 4:23 am

PA515 wrote:
ZK-MVP is c/n 1444 (F-WWEQ) and had it's first flight on 26 Jun or earlier. I expect it to be delivered in the next few days. No photos that I could find.

Over the last seven days flightradar24 has F-WWEQ doing a 13 min flight on 10 Jul and a 21 min flight on 13 Jul.

PA515


MrAirNZ wrote:
One 500 retirement this month and a 600 delivery each during August and September.


Is MCA retiring this month followed by MCW?
Thanks for the info PA515 and MrAirNZ
 
Mr AirNZ
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - July 2017

Sun Jul 16, 2017 4:44 am

ZKOAB wrote:
PA515 wrote:
ZK-MVP is c/n 1444 (F-WWEQ) and had it's first flight on 26 Jun or earlier. I expect it to be delivered in the next few days. No photos that I could find.

Over the last seven days flightradar24 has F-WWEQ doing a 13 min flight on 10 Jul and a 21 min flight on 13 Jul.

PA515


MrAirNZ wrote:
One 500 retirement this month and a 600 delivery each during August and September.


Is MCA retiring this month followed by MCW?
Thanks for the info PA515 and MrAirNZ

Correct. I can even provide an external reference. http://www.myairlease.com/available/anz
 
PA515
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - July 2017

Sun Jul 16, 2017 4:47 am

ZKOAB wrote:
Is MCA retiring this month followed by MCW?

The myairlease.com for sale info had MCA available in Sep 2017 and MCW is still available in Oct 2017, but that may have changed as MCW has been in NSN since 12 Jun and MCA is still in service.

PA515
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - July 2017

Sun Jul 16, 2017 10:00 am

sunrisevalley wrote:
PA515 wrote:
however during the 01 June 2017 Investor Day presentation, Chief Financial Officer Rob McDonald said the 777-200ER replacement would start from around 2022 and if they required wide-body units for the early part of next decade they could do that with operating leases. He said they have an option on a wide-body operating lease in 2019 and another in 2020. What that means is they want the 777-8 / 777-9 or the A350-900 / A350-1000 instead of more 789s.PA515


My view is that for this time frame these leases would be for 777-9's . Perhaps to replace the two 77W leases that run out about that time.


By operating lease PA515 do you mean early lease expiry options on the 77E's and I think 77W's aswell?! I will disagree with you that they don't want anymore 789's, I would be surprised if they didn't take the remaining 6 on option, although maybe they could be converted to another type? It sounds like the 1 additional 789 in 2018 is an operating lease not an option?! And they would do the same in 2019/20 if need be on more 789's keeping the options and potentially changing to another type most likely 77X? If they have the option to get more aircraft at slightly cheaper cost and they are growing they won't just let the options expire surely? Maybe they negotiate to extend the options time.

sunrisevalley wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:

I do agree with you, while QF with PER-LHR and UA with LAX-SIN are very long I'm sure they won't carry any freight and may block a handful of seats they seem a fair bit longer than anything NZ would attempt with the aircraft. .


UA1 to SIN is going out full in J and typically 10 to 13 seats available in Y. UA are doing very nicely on this sector!!


Thanks, and they can carry that much due to lower seat count and possibly NZ not having the highest MTOW? I'd have thought NZ would have the highest available due to most of their sector lengths, admittedly none of them are super long still.

Would NZ go 778 and not 779? Use the 778 ULH say NYC and have the same configuration for LAX? It's not much smaller than a 77W, or would the 779 be added aswell even though we would be heading towards 360/370 seats most likely? Would the 778 be profitable on a standard 12/13 hr sector like AKL-LAX or would the 779 make more sense?
 
NZ321
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - July 2017

Sun Jul 16, 2017 1:51 pm

i do not see DTW as likely at all. No sense in it. My money is on ORD and NYC in North America and LIM and GRU in South America.
 
sunrisevalley
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - July 2017

Sun Jul 16, 2017 3:41 pm

ZK-NBT wrote:
I will disagree with you that they don't want anymore 789's, I would be surprised if they didn't take the remaining 6 on option, although maybe they could be converted to another type?

Perhaps the 78X ?
[quote/]Would NZ go 778 and not 779? Use the 778 ULH say NYC and have the same configuration for LAX? It's not much smaller than a 77W, or would the 779 be added aswell even though we would be heading towards 360/370 seats most likely? Would the 778 be profitable on a standard 12/13 hr sector like AKL-LAX or would the 779 make more sense?[quote/]
This is the question I keep asking myself. I can see the the 777-8 at about 345 and the 777-9 at 395 seats. Ultimately profitability will be based on selling the available seats.From my reading of Leeham's tables I believe the fuel costs generally favor the 777-9 by about 1 to 2% But the 777-9 payload at 8500nm is well below max passenger load. That the 777-8 is about 2 years behind the 777-9 is not helpful . But who knows when the Atlantic coast of the USA might be ready for service. Perhaps 5yrs or more.
 
tealnz
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - July 2017

Sun Jul 16, 2017 8:32 pm

So we're back onto that "Why doesn't NZ realize that the 789 is the answer to almost all its needs..." jig. A few things:
- Sorry folks but after the latest investor day presentation it's plain that the 789 is not in play for the 77E replacement – or for NZ's ULR requirements. For the next widebody purchase they're going to be looking at A359/35K vs B778/9.
- Meantime we're still caught up on the question of what capability the 789 actually has. The latest suggestion is that NZ is operating them at less than the max available MTOW. Does anyone actually know? If buying the max possible MTOW was a simple answer to the 789's payload/range challenges on e.g. GRU wouldn't they have ordered the 78Ns at 254 tonnes? And why is it that NZ execs have insisted, notwithstanding the numbers that come out of sunrisevalley's model, that the 789 doesn't have the payload/range to do some of the things that a-netters believe it can do?
- Seems to me the most obvious answer is that for NZ's business model the 789 lacks payload/range for the more demanding North/South American routes. It's a business model that demands denser pax configuration than e.g. UA, QF. Plus serious cargo uplift. It's essentially the same point aerobnz made earlier ("it is fairly obvious that the ""deficiencies" that have been discussed are specific to the requirements of NZ, not to the overall specification of the 789").
- Your alternative is to insist that NZ can make a go of it on longer US routes with a QF-type model (much smaller passenger loads, minimal freight) Maybe they'll have to on a future NYC service but it's hard to see this becoming the general pattern. In which case isn't it time to accept that we're not going to see the 789 replace the 77E and focus instead on the big 2019 choice between the A350 and 77X? Which seems to me much less open and shut, technically, than some here are claiming...
 
PA515
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - July 2017

Sun Jul 16, 2017 9:31 pm

ZK-NBT wrote:
By operating lease PA515 do you mean early lease expiry options on the 77E's and I think 77W's aswell?! I will disagree with you that they don't want anymore 789's, I would be surprised if they didn't take the remaining 6 on option, although maybe they could be converted to another type? It sounds like the 1 additional 789 in 2018 is an operating lease not an option?! And they would do the same in 2019/20 if need be on more 789's keeping the options and potentially changing to another type most likely 77X? If they have the option to get more aircraft at slightly cheaper cost and they are growing they won't just let the options expire surely? Maybe they negotiate to extend the options time.

The context in which Rob McDonald mentioned the 2019 and 2020 operating lease options was in the event that Air NZ might require extra capacity for growth before delivery of any 777-8 / 777-9 or A350-900 / A350-1000.

There are 326 777-8 and 777-9 on order and Air NZ may not be able to get early delivery slots, unless someone like EK or QR defer deliveries. The first 777-9 delivery is in Dec 2019 and the first 777-8 delivery is about two years later (Dec 2021). The A350-900 / A350-1000 should be available earlier so Air NZ could combine any 'growth units' with the 777-200ER replacement order instead of leasing a few extra 789s plus the 777-200ER replacement order.

The 2018 789 being leased from ALC appears to be for Sep 2018 delivery. The ALC Press Release says delivery will be in the second quarter of 2018 and the nyc787.blogspot spreadsheet has 787 delivery details up to L/N 742 which is the beginning of Sep 2018.

PA515

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