FAQ

WHAT IS THIS REPORT?
This compares departures for sale THIS WEEK for the stated period versus what was for sale LAST WEEK...It does NOT compare to last year or now (UNLESS OTHERWISE STATED).

THE SCHEDULES SHOWN HERE CHANGE AFTER YOU POST???
-To improve is to change; to be perfect is to change often---Winston Churchill. This is data the carriers filed at the point in time it was captured. It's changed since then. You are just going to have to live with it.

HOW DO I READ IT?
XXX-YYY DEC 4>5 JAN 4>5 ; means that the listed airline changed the frequency between the two airports to add from 4 to 5 roundtrips in December and January. No other months were changed. I only list one direction, although it is possible the listed change is only one way. It is too difficult to average the two directions. I assume the change is roundtrip and that is most often the case.

WHERE ARE SEATS SHOWN?
They aren't. This only shows departures.

HOW ARE THE DAILY DEPARTURES CALCULATED?
This report uses total operations for the month listed, divided over the days in the month.

WHAT ARE THE FRACTIONAL FLIGHTS?
Flights that do not operate every day of the month create fractional service. In most cases flights are rounded, but in the case of international service or markets with low frequency, fractions are shown. For example, if a flight operates 4 times in April it will show 4/30=0.133=0.1. Also , a flight that only operates once per week may vary between 0.1 and 0.2 because a weekday may repeat either 4 or 5 times depending on the month.

WHAT ABOUT CARRIERS THAT DON'T PUBLISH A SCHEDULE 9 MONTHS IN ADVANCE?
Most airlines publish schedules 11 months in advance. This report covers the next 9 months. That avoids seeing schedules as they are loaded. Several LCCs load their schedules less than 9 months into the future. I remove the schedule adds if I see them and show a year over year (YOY) comparison if I notice them.

THOSE FLIGHTS AREN'T DELTA, THEY ARE SKYWEST
This report only shows the marketing code. It is too complicated to show all the operators.

THE FREQUENCIES MAY HAVE CHANGED AS YOU SHOW, BUT THE SEATS DIDNT CHANGE BECAUSE OF EQUIPMENT SWAPS
That is a natural weakness of a frequency based report, but it provides something to discuss below.

THIS LOOKS LIKE AN ERROR?
The carriers file the schedules. They do make mistakes. Most of the mistakes I have seen are either related to code shares not being marked as "duplicates" or carriers filing flights with invalid data such as equipment codes that are not standard. This causes flights to not appear.

CHARTERS?
Lately charters have been showing up in the database. I have no idea if that will continue.

I marked some of the ones I thought were interesting with an "*".

I think these are 1 month suspensions
3M FLL-ELH SEP 3>1.7 OCT 4>1.4 NOV 3>1.9
3M FLL-GGT SEP 0.9>0.1 OCT 0.8>0 NOV 0.9>0.3
3M FLL-GHB SEP 0.6>0.1 OCT 0.6>0 NOV 0.6>0.2
3M FLL-MHH SEP 4>1.7 OCT 3>1.4 NOV 3>1.9
3M FLL-TCB SEP 1.2>0.2 OCT 1.1>0 NOV 1.1>0.4
3M JAX-MHH SEP 0.2>0.0 OCT 0.1>0
3M MCO-ELH SEP 0.2>0.0 OCT 0.1>0
3M MCO-MHH SEP 1.6>0.3 OCT 1.6>0 NOV 1.6>0.5
3M MCO-PNS SEP 1.7>3 OCT 1.7>3
3M PBI-MHH SEP 1.0>0.2 OCT 1.0>0 NOV 1.0>0.3
3M PBI-NAS SEP 1.0>0.2 OCT 1.0>0 NOV 1.0>0.3
3M PNS-TPA SEP 1.7>3 OCT 1.7>3
3M TPA-MHH SEP 0.2>0.0 OCT 0.1>0

9X AOO-BWI JAN 0.3>1.2
9X DUJ-PIT JAN 1.2>3

AA DCA-ILM NOV 0.3>0.0
AA MIA-BZE OCT 1.1>2 NOV 1.9>2
AA MIA-CHS OCT 3>1.1 NOV 3>1.9 DEC 3>1.9 JAN 3>2 FEB 3>2
AA MIA-ZSA AUG 0.1>0.3
I think these reverse last week
AA ORD-DTW NOV 6>7 DEC 6>7 JAN 6>7 FEB 6>7
AA ORD-FNT NOV 2>3 DEC 2>3 JAN 2>3 FEB 2>3
AA ORD-FWA NOV 3>4 DEC 3>4 JAN 3>4 FEB 3>4
AA ORD-MSN NOV 4>5 DEC 4>5 JAN 4>5 FEB 4>5
AA ORD-PVR NOV 0.1>0.3
*AA PHX-YEG NOV 0>0.9 DEC 0>1.0 JAN 0>1.0 FEB 0>1.0

AC FLL-YHZ JAN 0.3>0.1 FEB 0.3>0.1
AC STL-YYZ NOV 1.7>3 DEC 1.7>3 JAN 1.7>3 FEB 1.7>3

AD MCO-REC NOV 0.3>0.6 DEC 0.3>0.6 JAN 0.3>0.5 FEB 0.3>0.6

AM BOS-MEX SEP 1.0>0.8
*AM DTW-MTY JUL 1.0>0.5 AUG 1.0>0 SEP 1.0>0 OCT 1.0>0 NOV 1.0>0 DEC 1.0>0 JAN 1.0>0 FEB 1.0>0
AM IAD-MEX SEP 1.0>0.8
AM LAS-MEX SEP 3>1.9
*AM LAX-MTY SEP 0>1.0 OCT 0>1.0 NOV 0>1.0 DEC 0>1.0 JAN 0>1.0 FEB 0>1.0

BW MCO-KIN AUG 0.3>0.4
BW MCO-POS AUG 0.4>0.5

DL ATL-GSO OCT 8>9 NOV 8>9 JAN 8>9 FEB 8>9
DL ATL-KIN DEC 0.9>1.2 JAN 0.9>1.0
DL LAX-CUN NOV 1.1>1.0
DL LGA-BZN SEP 0.1>0.0
DL SEA-CUN DEC 0.1>0.3 JAN 0.1>0.3
DL SLC-JAC NOV 3>2

I wonder if they will move the old bookings back to the prior days?
*EK MCO-DXB JUL 0.7>1.0 AUG 0.7>1.0 SEP 0.7>1.0 DEC 0.7>1.0 JAN 0.7>1.0

G4 CVG-MSY SEP 0.4>0.3

LY JFK-TLV SEP 1.9>1.8

OB MIA-VVI AUG 0.5>0.7

*SU JFK-SVO NOV 2>3 DEC 2.0>3 JAN 2>3 FEB 2>3

TJ BOS-HPN JUL 0>0.8 AUG 0>1.2

UA DEN-ABQ NOV 5>4
UA DEN-ASE NOV 5>4
UA DEN-BIL NOV 5>4
UA DEN-BWI NOV 1.9>1.0
UA DEN-BZN NOV 4>3
UA DEN-COS NOV 9>8
UA DEN-DRO NOV 7>6
UA DEN-FSD NOV 5>4
UA DEN-GJT NOV 5>4
UA DEN-HDN NOV 2.0>1.0
UA DEN-IND NOV 3>1.8
UA DEN-JAC NOV 3>2.0
UA DEN-LGA NOV 6>7
UA DEN-MLI NOV 1.8>1.0 DEC 1.8>1.3
UA DEN-RAP NOV 5>4
UA DEN-SLC NOV 7>6
UA DEN-SMF NOV 5>4
UA DEN-TPA NOV 1.7>1.2
UA DEN-YVR NOV 3>1.9
UA DEN-YWG NOV 1.9>1.0
UA DEN-YYZ NOV 3>1.8
UA EWR-BDL NOV 4>3
Extension
*UA EWR-BGR NOV 0.9>2 DEC 0>1.2
UA EWR-CHS NOV 5>4
UA EWR-DAY NOV 3>1.7
UA EWR-DEN NOV 8>7
UA EWR-GSP NOV 1.9>3
UA EWR-IND NOV 7>6
UA EWR-LAS NOV 7>6
UA EWR-MHT NOV 4>3
UA EWR-MIA NOV 5>6
UA EWR-MSY NOV 3>4
UA EWR-ORF NOV 4>5
UA EWR-PBI NOV 6>7
UA EWR-PHX NOV 4>3
UA EWR-RDU NOV 8>9
UA EWR-RSW NOV 3>4
UA EWR-SBN NOV 1.0>2.0
*UA EWR-SRQ NOV 0>1.0
UA EWR-SYR NOV 4>5
UA EWR-YOW NOV 3>1.8
UA EWR-YYZ NOV 5>4
UA IAD-CAE NOV 4>3
UA IAD-CHO NOV 3>1.9
UA IAD-CVG NOV 1.7>3
UA IAD-DAY NOV 3>1.6
UA IAD-FAY NOV 3>2.0
UA IAD-FLL NOV 1.0>2
UA IAD-GSO NOV 3>1.8
UA IAD-JAX NOV 3>1.8
UA IAD-RIC NOV 3>4
UA IAD-ROC NOV 4>3
UA IAD-SCE NOV 4>1.8 DEC 4>3
UA IAD-SYR NOV 4>3
UA IAD-YOW NOV 3>1.9
UA IAH-ABQ NOV 4>3
UA IAH-ATL DEC 8>7 JAN 8>7 FEB 8>7
UA IAH-AUS NOV 10>9 DEC 10>9 JAN 10>9 FEB 10>9
UA IAH-BOS NOV 6>4 FEB 6>5
UA IAH-BWI NOV 3>1.8 JAN 3>1.8 FEB 3>1.9
UA IAH-CMH NOV 4>5 DEC 4>5 JAN 4>5 FEB 4>5
UA IAH-CRP NOV 6>5
UA IAH-CVG NOV 5>4 JAN 5>4 FEB 5>4
UA IAH-DEN FEB 12>11
UA IAH-DFW NOV 9>8 DEC 9>8 JAN 9>8 FEB 9>8
UA IAH-EWR NOV 10>9 DEC 10>9 JAN 10>9 FEB 10>9
UA IAH-GSP NOV 1.0>2 DEC 1.0>2 JAN 1.0>2 FEB 1.0>2
UA IAH-JAX NOV 4>3 DEC 4>3
UA IAH-LAS NOV 7>6 DEC 6>5
UA IAH-MAF NOV 6>7 DEC 6>7 JAN 6>7 FEB 6>7
UA IAH-MCI NOV 4>5 DEC 4>5 JAN 4>5 FEB 4>5
UA IAH-MCO NOV 7>6
UA IAH-MSY NOV 10>8 DEC 10>8 JAN 10>8 FEB 10>8
UA IAH-RIC NOV 2.0>1.1 DEC 1.9>1.1 JAN 2>1.1
UA IAH-SAT NOV 9>8 DEC 9>8 JAN 10>8 FEB 10>8
UA IAH-SAV NOV 2>1.0 DEC 1.9>1.3
UA IAH-SJC NOV 1.9>1.0 DEC 1.6>1.0 JAN 1.8>1.0
UA IAH-TUS NOV 4>3
UA IAH-VPS JAN 3>2
*UA LAX-ASE NOV 0>1.0
UA LAX-BWI NOV 1.9>1.0
UA LAX-CLE NOV 1.7>1.2
UA LAX-DEN NOV 8>7
UA LAX-EWR NOV 13>11 DEC 13>12
UA LAX-FAT NOV 1.0>3
UA LAX-IAD NOV 8>7
UA LAX-IAH NOV 12>10
UA LAX-LAS NOV 4>3
UA LAX-MRY NOV 5>4
UA LAX-PHX NOV 4>3
UA ORD-ABE NOV 3>1.9
UA ORD-ABQ NOV 1.0>1.9
UA ORD-ATL NOV 8>7
UA ORD-BNA NOV 6>8
UA ORD-BUF NOV 5>3
UA ORD-CHS NOV 4>3
UA ORD-CID NOV 6>5
UA ORD-CLE NOV 10>9
UA ORD-DAY NOV 7>6
UA ORD-DEN NOV 12>10
UA ORD-DSM NOV 6>5
UA ORD-DTW NOV 6>7
UA ORD-EWR NOV 11>9 DEC 11>10
UA ORD-FLL NOV 2>3
UA ORD-GRR NOV 5>6
UA ORD-GSO NOV 3>4
UA ORD-GSP NOV 3>4
UA ORD-IAD NOV 6>5
UA ORD-IAH NOV 11>10 DEC 11>10 JAN 11>10 FEB 11>10
UA ORD-IND NOV 8>9
UA ORD-LAX NOV 13>11 DEC 13>11
UA ORD-MCO NOV 6>5
UA ORD-MIA NOV 5>3
UA ORD-OMA NOV 6>5
UA ORD-ORF NOV 4>3
UA ORD-PHL NOV 7>6
UA ORD-PWM NOV 3>1.8
UA ORD-RAP NOV 0>0.9
UA ORD-ROC NOV 3>4
UA ORD-SAN NOV 4>5
UA ORD-SAV NOV 3>1.9
UA ORD-SDF NOV 6>5
UA ORD-TUL NOV 3>4
UA ORD-YOW NOV 4>3
UA ORD-YUL NOV 5>3 DEC 5>4
UA SFO-BOI NOV 4>5
UA SFO-BOS NOV 7>6
UA SFO-CLE NOV 1.9>1.0
UA SFO-DEN NOV 13>12 DEC 12>11
UA SFO-IAD NOV 10>9
UA SFO-IAH NOV 10>9 DEC 10>9 JAN 10>9 FEB 10>9
UA SFO-LAS NOV 9>11
UA SFO-MFR NOV 4>5
UA SFO-ORD NOV 14>12
UA SFO-PHX NOV 4>5
UA SFO-RDM NOV 3>4
UA SFO-RNO NOV 5>4
UA SFO-SAN NOV 9>10
UA SFO-SBA NOV 7>6
UA SFO-SLC NOV 6>5
UA SFO-SNA NOV 7>6
Frequency reductions for Winter
VS IAD-LHR DEC 1.0>0.9 JAN 1.0>0.8 FEB 1.0>0.9
VS LAX-LHR NOV 2>1.7 DEC 2>1.9 JAN 2>1.5 FEB 2>1.6
VS MIA-LHR NOV 2>1.8 DEC 2>1.9 JAN 2>1.3 FEB 2>1.4
VS SFO-LHR NOV 2>1.7 DEC 2>1.7 JAN 2>1.6 FEB 2>1.6

WN YOY Compare
WN ABQ-PDX DEC 0.9>0
WN ATL-AUS JAN 2>3
WN ATL-CAK DEC 3>0 JAN 3>0 FEB 3>0
WN ATL-CLE DEC 0>1.9 JAN 0>1.8 FEB 0>1.9
*WN ATL-MCI FEB 3>4
WN ATL-MKE DEC 3>1.9 JAN 3>2.0 FEB 3>2
WN ATL-MSP JAN 3>2.0 FEB 3>2.0
WN ATL-PBI DEC 1.9>1.1
*WN ATL-PHL FEB 3>1.9
WN AUS-EWR JAN 1.6>1.2 FEB 1.7>1.0
WN AUS-LBB DEC 1.5>1.0
WN AUS-MCI DEC 0>1.0 JAN 0>1.0 FEB 0>1.0
WN AUS-MSY DEC 1.3>2
*WN AUS-SEA DEC 0.9>0.2 JAN 0.9>0.1 FEB 0.9>0
WN AUS-STL DEC 1.0>1.8 JAN 1.0>1.9 FEB 1.0>1.8
WN BDL-RSW JAN 1.7>0.9
WN BNA-CUN DEC 0>0.2 JAN 0>0.1 FEB 0>0.1
WN BNA-MKE DEC 0>2 JAN 0>2 FEB 0>2
WN BNA-MSP DEC 0>1.0 JAN 0>1.0 FEB 0>1.0
*WN BNA-RSW JAN 1.0>0.1 FEB 1.1>0.6
WN BOI-SAN DEC 0>1.0 JAN 0>1.0 FEB 0>1.0
WN BOS-CMH JAN 1.6>1.0 FEB 1.5>0.9
WN BOS-IND JAN 1.5>1.1 FEB 1.5>0.9
WN BOS-MCI DEC 1.8>1.4 JAN 1.6>1.0 FEB 1.5>0.9
WN BOS-MKE DEC 1.7>1.1 JAN 1.6>0.9 FEB 1.5>0.9
WN BUR-SFO DEC 3>4 JAN 4>5 FEB 4>5
WN BUR-SJC DEC 7>9 JAN 7>9 FEB 7>8
WN BUR-SLC DEC 0>1.5 JAN 0>1.7 FEB 0>1.7
*WN BWI-BDL FEB 7>6
WN BWI-BNA DEC 7>6
WN BWI-CLT JAN 2>3 FEB 2.0>3
WN BWI-CUN DEC 2>3
WN BWI-CVG DEC 0>3 JAN 0>3 FEB 0>3
WN BWI-NAS DEC 0.2>0.5
*WN BWI-SEA JAN 1.0>0.2 FEB 1.0>0
WN BWI-SJD JAN 0.1>0 FEB 0.1>0
WN BWI-SJO DEC 1.0>0.2 JAN 1.0>0.1 FEB 1.0>0.1
WN BWI-SLC DEC 0.9>0.1
WN CLE-MKE DEC 0>1.9 JAN 0>1.9 FEB 0>1.9
WN CLE-STL DEC 1.0>1.8 JAN 1.0>1.9 FEB 1.0>1.8
WN CMH-OAK JAN 1.0>0.2 FEB 1.0>0.4
WN DAL-DCA JAN 3>4 FEB 3>4
WN DAL-ONT DEC 0>1.0
WN DAL-SAT DEC 10>9
WN DAL-SFO JAN 1.0>1.8 FEB 1.0>1.8
WN DAL-SJC DEC 1.9>1.1 JAN 1.9>1.0 FEB 1.8>1.0
WN DAL-SNA DEC 1.8>0.8 JAN 1.4>0.9
WN DCA-IND DEC 1.8>0 JAN 1.9>0 FEB 1.9>0
WN DCA-RSW JAN 0.3>0.1 FEB 0.3>0.1
WN DCA-TPA JAN 2>3 FEB 2>3
WN DEN-ALB DEC 0>0.8 JAN 0>1.0 FEB 0>1.0
WN DEN-AUS FEB 4>5
WN DEN-BZE DEC 0>0.2 JAN 0>0.2 FEB 0>0.3
WN DEN-CUN DEC 1.2>2 JAN 1.1>1.3
WN DEN-DTW JAN 2>1.2 FEB 1.9>1.0
*WN DEN-EWR FEB 3>1.8
WN DEN-MKE JAN 3>4 FEB 3>4
WN DEN-RNO JAN 2>1.2 FEB 2.0>1.0
*WN DEN-SEA FEB 3>4
WN DEN-SJD DEC 0.8>1.0
WN EWR-IND DEC 0>1.5 JAN 0>1.7 FEB 0>1.7
WN FLL-ALB DEC 1.0>0.6
WN FLL-BNA DEC 5>4
WN FLL-BZE DEC 0>1.0 JAN 0>1.0 FEB 0>1.0
WN FLL-CUN DEC 0>3 JAN 0>3 FEB 0>3
WN FLL-EWR DEC 0>1.9 JAN 0>1.9 FEB 0>1.9
WN FLL-GCM DEC 0>1.0 JAN 0>1.0 FEB 0>1.0
WN FLL-HAV DEC 1.3>2
WN FLL-IAD DEC 0>1.0 JAN 0>1.0 FEB 0>1.0
WN FLL-MBJ DEC 0>2 JAN 0>2 FEB 0>2
WN FLL-PHL DEC 3>1.5
WN FLL-PLS DEC 0>1.0 JAN 0>1.0 FEB 0>1.0
WN FLL-PUJ DEC 0>1.0 JAN 0>1.0 FEB 0>1.0
WN FLL-SJO DEC 0>1.0 JAN 0>1.0 FEB 0>1.0
WN FLL-SJU DEC 2>3
WN FLL-SNU DEC 0.5>1.0
WN FLL-TPA JAN 6>5 FEB 6>5
WN FLL-VRA DEC 2>1.0 JAN 2>1.0 FEB 2>1.0
WN GEG-SMF DEC 0>1.0 JAN 0>1.0 FEB 0>1.0
WN GRR-RSW DEC 0.2>0.1
WN GRR-TPA JAN 1.0>0.4
WN HOU-ATL DEC 5>6 JAN 5>6 FEB 5>6
*WN HOU-AUA FEB 0.1>0
WN HOU-BOS DEC 1.4>1.0
WN HOU-CUN DEC 2>3 JAN 2>3 FEB 2>3
WN HOU-DAL DEC 19>18
WN HOU-ECP DEC 1.8>1.2
WN HOU-LGA JAN 2>3 FEB 2>3
WN HOU-MBJ DEC 1.0>0.8 JAN 1.0>0.6 FEB 1.0>0.6
WN HOU-MEX DEC 2>4 JAN 3>4 FEB 3>4
WN HOU-OMA DEC 0>1.0 JAN 0>1.0 FEB 0>1.0
WN HOU-PDX DEC 0.9>0 JAN 0.9>0 FEB 0.9>0
WN HOU-SEA DEC 0.9>0
WN IND-LGA DEC 1.9>0 JAN 1.7>0 FEB 1.7>0
WN IND-TPA DEC 3>1.8
WN LAS-BDL DEC 1.0>0.2
WN LAS-BHM DEC 1.5>1.0
WN LAS-DTW DEC 1.0>0.6
*WN LAS-ELP FEB 3>1.9
WN LAS-LGB DEC 3>0.5 JAN 1.5>0.3 FEB 0.7>0.3
WN LAS-PHL DEC 1.0>0.2
*WN LAS-SNA FEB 6>7
WN LAX-AUS JAN 1.5>3 FEB 1.8>3
WN LAX-CUN DEC 1.8>1.0 JAN 2>1.0 FEB 2>1.0
WN LAX-DEN JAN 7>8 FEB 7>8
WN LAX-LAS DEC 11>9
WN LAX-SJD DEC 1.8>2
WN LGA-MKE DEC 3>1.9 JAN 3>1.9 FEB 3>1.9
WN LGA-TPA DEC 0>2 JAN 0>2 FEB 0>2
WN LGB-SMF DEC 0>2 JAN 0>2 FEB 0>2
WN MCI-PDX FEB 1.0>0.7
WN MCI-SAN JAN 1.0>1.7 FEB 1.0>1.8
*WN MCI-SEA FEB 1.0>0.7
WN MCO-ALB JAN 3>1.9
WN MCO-BUF JAN 4>3
WN MCO-BWI FEB 11>10
WN MCO-DAL JAN 4>5 FEB 4>5
WN MCO-FLL DEC 0>5 JAN 0>5 FEB 0>5
WN MCO-FNT DEC 0.2>0.1 JAN 0.3>0.1 FEB 0.3>0.1
WN MCO-GRR DEC 1.0>0.2 JAN 1.3>0.9
WN MCO-MBJ DEC 1.0>0.8 JAN 1.0>0.7 FEB 1.0>0.7
WN MCO-SJU JAN 4>5
*WN MDW-ATL FEB 6>5
WN MDW-BWI JAN 6>7 FEB 6>7
WN MDW-CVG DEC 0>5 JAN 0>5 FEB 0>5
WN MDW-DAY DEC 3>0 JAN 3>0 FEB 3>0
WN MDW-DCA DEC 6>7
WN MDW-EWR DEC 7>6
WN MDW-LAX DEC 5>6
WN MDW-MBJ DEC 1.0>0.7
*WN MDW-MSP FEB 7>6
*WN MDW-OKC JAN 0.9>0.2 FEB 1.0>0
WN MDW-PUJ DEC 1.0>0.6 JAN 1.0>0.9
WN MDW-SJU DEC 0>0.4 JAN 0>0.2 FEB 0>0.1
WN MDW-SNA JAN 0.5>0.2
WN MDW-TPA DEC 6>5
WN MDW-TUS DEC 1.4>1.0
WN MKE-CUN DEC 0.2>0 JAN 0.1>0 FEB 0.1>0
WN MKE-MSP DEC 1.4>0 JAN 1.7>0 FEB 1.7>0
WN MKE-SAN DEC 0.9>0 JAN 1.0>0 FEB 1.0>0
WN MKE-SEA DEC 0.9>0
WN MKE-SFO DEC 0.9>0 JAN 1.0>0 FEB 1.0>0
WN MKE-STL JAN 1.0>1.9 FEB 1.0>1.8
WN MKE-TPA JAN 1.7>1.3
WN OAK-PVR DEC 0>1.0 JAN 0>1.0 FEB 0.6>1.0
WN OAK-SJD DEC 0>1.0 JAN 0>1.0 FEB 0.6>1.0
WN OAK-STL JAN 1.0>0.2 FEB 1.0>0.0
WN ONT-PDX FEB 1.0>0.7
*WN PDX-SAN FEB 1.9>3
WN PDX-SFO DEC 0>3 JAN 0>3 FEB 0>3
WN PHL-TPA DEC 2>1.4
WN PHX-ABQ JAN 7>6 FEB 7>6
WN PHX-BNA JAN 3>1.9
WN PHX-IND DEC 1.9>1.1
*WN PHX-LIT JAN 1.0>0.2 FEB 1.0>0
*WN PHX-MCI FEB 4>3
WN PHX-MCO DEC 1.6>1.2
WN PHX-MSY DEC 1.7>1.1
WN PHX-ONT JAN 6>7 FEB 6>7
WN PHX-SNA DEC 8>6 JAN 8>7 FEB 8>7
WN PHX-TUL DEC 3>1.5
WN PIT-RSW JAN 1.9>1.0
WN PVD-TPA JAN 2>1.2
WN RNO-SJC DEC 0>1.9 JAN 0>1.8 FEB 0>1.7
WN RSW-STL DEC 3>1.5
WN SAN-SEA DEC 1.9>1.1 JAN 1.5>1.0 FEB 1.6>1.0
WN SAN-SFO JAN 7>9 FEB 7>8
*WN SAN-SJC DEC 10>11 JAN 10>12 FEB 10>11
WN SAN-SJD DEC 0>1.0 JAN 0>1.0 FEB 0>1.0
WN SAN-SLC DEC 0>1.0 JAN 0>1.0 FEB 0>1.0
WN SAN-SMF DEC 9>11 JAN 9>11 FEB 9>11
WN SAN-STL JAN 1.0>1.7 FEB 1.0>1.8
WN SAN-TPA JAN 0>0.8 FEB 0>1.0
WN SAN-TUS JAN 3>2.0 FEB 3>1.9
WN SEA-SJC DEC 3>4
WN SEA-SMF DEC 4>5 JAN 3>4 FEB 3>4
WN SJC-SNA DEC 8>9
WN SLC-SMF DEC 0>1.0 JAN 0>1.0 FEB 0>1.0
WN SNA-SJD DEC 1.2>1.0
WN STL-CUN DEC 0>0.2 JAN 0>0.1 FEB 0>0.1
WN TPA-HAV DEC 0.6>1.0

WP HNL-KOA AUG 11>10
WP HNL-LIH JUL 11>10 AUG 11>10
WP HNL-OGG AUG 13>12

WW ORD-KEF AUG 0.7>0.8

ZK DEN-FMN JUL 1.7>1.3 AUG 1.7>1.0 SEP 1.7>1.0 OCT 1.7>1.0 NOV 1.7>1.0 DEC 1.7>1.0 JAN 1.7>1.0 FEB 1.7>1.0
ZK FMN-PGA AUG 0.7>0.5 SEP 0.7>0.4 OCT 0.7>0.4 NOV 0.7>0.4 DEC 0.7>0.4 JAN 0.7>0.5 FEB 0.7>0.4

*AM DTW-MTY JUL 1.0>0.5 AUG 1.0>0 SEP 1.0>0 OCT 1.0>0 NOV 1.0>0 DEC 1.0>0 JAN 1.0>0 FEB 1.0>0

Well...that didn't last long.

enilria wrote:

*WN ATL-PHL FEB 3>1.9

We know WN has reduced ATL since the FL merger but AA has finally upped it's game on PHL-ATL since the days when US ran 50-70 seat RJ's. Most AA flights are on 319's with a few 190's.

enilria wrote:

ZK DEN-FMN JUL 1.7>1.3 AUG 1.7>1.0 SEP 1.7>1.0 OCT 1.7>1.0 NOV 1.7>1.0 DEC 1.7>1.0 JAN 1.7>1.0 FEB 1.7>1.0
ZK FMN-PGA AUG 0.7>0.5 SEP 0.7>0.4 OCT 0.7>0.4 NOV 0.7>0.4 DEC 0.7>0.4 JAN 0.7>0.5 FEB 0.7>0.4

The continual decline here has been a repeating trend. Man this is a slow death. Did I miss the loss of the PUB EAS contract in a prior OAG or has that not shown up yet? I'm very interested to see what ends up being the final nail in the coffin for ZK.

Thanks as always Enilria! I look forward to these every Sunday!

Peace

lavalampluva wrote:

*AM DTW-MTY JUL 1.0>0.5 AUG 1.0>0 SEP 1.0>0 OCT 1.0>0 NOV 1.0>0 DEC 1.0>0 JAN 1.0>0 FEB 1.0>0

Well...that didn't last long.

Yes because the codeshare was never placed on this route, so there were 0 connecting pax. MEX OTOH is doing fine with the codeshare added onto it.

Another thing about MTY was you had 2x daily flights (319, E90) and IMO that's too many seats, if any airline wants to make a difference it would be Y4, and its heavily discussed in the Detroit thread that MTY, GDL and MEX and possibly QRO could all be added by Y4 because they all simply make sense for the kind of market DTW has, auto with a little mixture of leisure.

Darn those are some heavy cuts by WN for MCO, interesting to see FLL at 5x daily.

WN always has seasonal shifts in MCO it's nothing new.

Flyguy

bomber996 wrote:

enilria wrote:

ZK DEN-FMN JUL 1.7>1.3 AUG 1.7>1.0 SEP 1.7>1.0 OCT 1.7>1.0 NOV 1.7>1.0 DEC 1.7>1.0 JAN 1.7>1.0 FEB 1.7>1.0
ZK FMN-PGA AUG 0.7>0.5 SEP 0.7>0.4 OCT 0.7>0.4 NOV 0.7>0.4 DEC 0.7>0.4 JAN 0.7>0.5 FEB 0.7>0.4

The continual decline here has been a repeating trend. Man this is a slow death. Did I miss the loss of the PUB EAS contract in a prior OAG or has that not shown up yet? I'm very interested to see what ends up being the final nail in the coffin for ZK.:

I believe the Pueblo EAS contract for Skywest starts in December, so it might not be updated yet. The online ZK timetable does not show it removed yet. Looking at August I only see around 8 Great Lakes departures per day and 3/day of them are Pueblo so that is a definite blow.

They did recently win Prescott and Page EAS bids so perhaps as Denver evaporates they'll continue to migrate west as long as they can still stay in the air.

enilria wrote:

WN PHX-ABQ JAN 7>6 FEB 7>6
WN PHX-BNA JAN 3>1.9
WN PHX-IND DEC 1.9>1.1
*WN PHX-LIT JAN 1.0>0.2 FEB 1.0>0
*WN PHX-MCI FEB 4>3
WN PHX-MCO DEC 1.6>1.2
WN PHX-MSY DEC 1.7>1.1
WN PHX-ONT JAN 6>7 FEB 6>7
WN PHX-SNA DEC 8>6 JAN 8>7 FEB 8>7
WN PHX-TUL DEC 3>1.5

Some big cuts for PHX.

I wonder if F9 and/or G4's presence on some of these routes is the cause of these cuts.

I didn't expect PHX - LIT to last forever but am sad to see it go.

flymco753 wrote:

Darn those are some heavy cuts by WN for MCO, interesting to see FLL at 5x daily.

wnflyguy wrote:

WN always has seasonal shifts in MCO it's nothing new.

Flyguy

Actually neither is really on the money here.

These are year-over-year changes, so these are not routine seasonal adjustments

But if you look at the details the overall changes are pretty minimal.

WN MCO-ALB JAN 3>1.9
WN MCO-BUF JAN 4>3
WN MCO-BWI FEB 11>10
WN MCO-DAL JAN 4>5 FEB 4>5
WN MCO-FLL DEC 0>5 JAN 0>5 FEB 0>5
WN MCO-FNT DEC 0.2>0.1 JAN 0.3>0.1 FEB 0.3>0.1
WN MCO-GRR DEC 1.0>0.2 JAN 1.3>0.9
WN MCO-MBJ DEC 1.0>0.8 JAN 1.0>0.7 FEB 1.0>0.7
WN MCO-SJU JAN 4>5
WN PHX-MCO DEC 1.6>1.2

Even if you disregard the five added trips to FLL the other adjustments nearly offset eachother.

December up 3.5 departures (+5 FLL minus 1.5 other net adjustments)
January up 4.0 departures (+5 FLL minus 1.0 other net adjustments)
February up 4.5 departures (+5 FLL minus 0.5 other net adjustments)

As always, thank you for taking the time to aggregate the changes.

DTW-MTY is perplexing. NW,NWAirlink,DL and now AM have tried to make this work for almost 20 years. Seems like a home run, given the auto connection, but always falls short.

DCA-ILM....dosent that go back to the PI days???

Looks like WN is cutting east bound Seattle traffic and adding more California flying.

*AA PHX-YEG NOV 0>0.9 DEC 0>1.0 JAN 0>1.0 FEB 0>1.0

Seasonal for the winter birds I suppose.

Still can't get my head around WN GEG-SMF. Looks like it provides some good feed GEG-SoCal but is somewhat of a unique route for them in the PNW.

I guess the laptop ban hurts EK less on MCO as it's primarily a leisure route.

Thanks, as always, for compiling and posting this stuff, enilria!

enilria wrote:

WN IND-DCA DEC 1.8>0 JAN 1.9>0 FEB 1.9>0
WN IND-LGA DEC 1.9>0 JAN 1.7>0 FEB 1.7>0; WN IND-EWR DEC 0>1.5 JAN 0>1.7 FEB 0>1.7
WN IND-BOS JAN 1.5>1.1 FEB 1.5>0.9
WN BOS-CMH JAN 1.6>1.0 FEB 1.5>0.9
WN BOS-MCI DEC 1.8>1.4 JAN 1.6>1.0 FEB 1.5>0.9
WN BOS-MKE DEC 1.7>1.1 JAN 1.6>0.9 FEB 1.5>0.9

Not a lot of buzz about this, but it looks like Southwest is backing off a strategy they tried. Southwest pushed into key northeast business routes from the Midwest, including adding 2x/day from Indy to BOS/LGA/DCA and Columbus to BOS/DCA in pretty short order. However with changes from the past few schedule periods:

--Indy is losing DCA, is seeing Boston cut to 1x/day, and has recently seen LGA switched to EWR. Newark is arguably a lesser destination for short-haul domestic unless your name is United, and an airport where Southwest has not exactly thrived
--Boston this winter is dropping to 1x not only to Indy but also to Columbus, Kansas City and Milwaukee.

Southwest had stuck it out keeping 2x in these shorter-haul business markets in spite of weak results in the colder half of the year. Southwest is still keeping 2x on CMH-DCA even though it hasn't perform much differently from IND-DCA. And some or all of the Boston routes cut to 1x might go back to 2x in the warmer months. But most likely flights to slotted airports aren't coming back. And I'll be curious to see how IND-EWR does in winter in place of IND-LGA. Southwest ran well under half full on IND-LGA in January-March 2017, so I'm a little skeptical IND-EWR will do dramatically better in the cold months.

Italianflyer wrote:

As always, thank you for taking the time to aggregate the changes.

DTW-MTY is perplexing. NW,NWAirlink,DL and now AM have tried to make this work for almost 20 years. Seems like a home run, given the auto connection, but always falls short.

DCA-ILM....dosent that go back to the PI days???

DL already flies DTW-MTY (morning departure). The AM flight was just a second daily frequency on the route with an afternoon departure.

I think some of what WN is doing in the Nov-Feb schedules is affected by the loss of ~30 737-300s. True not all of it is attributed to this event but I am
sure at least some part of the schedule is because of the -300s. Let's see what happens to some of those markets once the a/c count come back up in the 2nd qtr.

WW

wwtraveler99 wrote:

I think some of what WN is doing in the Nov-Feb schedules is affected by the loss of ~30 737-300s. True not all of it is attributed to this event but I am
sure at least some part of the schedule is because of the -300s. Let's see what happens to some of those markets once the a/c count come back up in the 2nd qtr.

WW

I agree with this. When you see routes like OAK-CMH and OAK-STL suspended for one to two months (not even an entire schedule update) before they come back, I figure it almost has to be plane related, otherwise just suspending the route for a month doesn't make much sense. You would either cut it or keep it for the whole update.

Isn't SW retiring the rest of their classic fleet this fall as the Max's come on line. (FAA will not allow the classics to be flown with the MAX unless you create a separate subfleet) I believe they are going to lose quit a bit of capacity in the short term as they wait for the Max to arrive in significant numbers. What we are probably seeing is routes that SW feels they can strategically pull down for 3-6 months without serious affecting their customer base or strategic position vs other airlines.

Eric

michman wrote:

Italianflyer wrote:

As always, thank you for taking the time to aggregate the changes.

DTW-MTY is perplexing. NW,NWAirlink,DL and now AM have tried to make this work for almost 20 years. Seems like a home run, given the auto connection, but always falls short.

DCA-ILM....dosent that go back to the PI days???

DL already flies DTW-MTY (morning departure). The AM flight was just a second daily frequency on the route with an afternoon departure.

One would think the afternoon departure would fair better. I guess the auto industry alone couldn't save it.

good to see AA PHX-YEG back. was surprising they couldn't make that work. PHX is to western canada is what Florida is to eastern canadians

ty97 wrote:

enilria can correct me (and please do!) if I am wrong, but I think the WN data is a year over year compare which means seasonality would not be the explanation.

Correct

bomber996 wrote:

Thanks as always Enilria! I look forward to these every Sunday!
Peace

Italianflyer wrote:

As always, thank you for taking the time to aggregate the changes.

Brickell305 wrote:

I guess the laptop ban hurts EK less on MCO as it's primarily a leisure route.

Yeah, I think Disney demand is quite resilient.

knope2001 wrote:

Thanks, as always, for compiling and posting this stuff, enilria!

knope2001 wrote:

Not a lot of buzz about this, but it looks like Southwest is backing off a strategy they tried. Southwest pushed into key northeast business routes from the Midwest, including adding 2x/day from Indy to BOS/LGA/DCA and Columbus to BOS/DCA in pretty short order. However with changes from the past few schedule periods:

Didn't they drop EWR-HOU a year ago? Anyway, I generally agree. Outside BWI they struggle in the NE.

lavalampluva wrote:

One would think the afternoon departure would fair better. I guess the auto industry alone couldn't save it.

People are pretty reluctant to fly in and out of MTY in the morning and evening because of safety issues, particularly when you are driving out into the boonies to a remote industrial locations. I've even had Mexicans tell me that.

enilria wrote:

I wonder if they will move the old bookings back to the prior days?
*EK MCO-DXB JUL 0.7>1.0 AUG 0.7>1.0 SEP 0.7>1.0 DEC 0.7>1.0 JAN 0.7>1.0

When I flew this route a few months ago, my flight had about 100 open seats. Was talking with the relief captain and he mentioned that while the passenger count was load, he said the bottom was "packed to the gills" with cargo.

polywad6963 wrote:

*AA PHX-YEG NOV 0>0.9 DEC 0>1.0 JAN 0>1.0 FEB 0>1.0

Seasonal for the winter birds I suppose.

Yes. It runs through 3 May, per AA internal site "Jetwire".
Enter Edmonton
American will return to Edmonton, Canada (YEG) on Nov. 5, with nonstop seasonal service from PHX through May 3, 2018. The flights will be operated by Mesa Airlines as American Eagle, using Bombardier CRJ-900 aircraft. The service will be available for sale on Saturday, June 24.

PlanesNTrains wrote:

Still can't get my head around WN GEG-SMF. Looks like it provides some good feed GEG-SoCal but is somewhat of a unique route for them in the PNW.

Actually GEG-SMF has enough daily passengers to warrant a nonstop or two. ExpressJet ran it twice daily back in the day and was told by GEG Airport folks that it was one of ExpressJet's few good performers (along with GEG-SAN I believe...might've been GEG-ONT). Horizon tried it with the disgraceful Q400 and it failed.

Your point about further south connections, stops to SoCal is a fair point though...doesn't hurt.

enilria wrote:

Didn't they drop EWR-HOU a year ago? Anyway, I generally agree. Outside BWI they struggle in the NE.

In the handful of years since they started Newark (I think it was 2011 or 2012) they've started and dropped flights to Houston, New Orleans, Baltimore and Nashville. Those are the sorts of markets one would expect to be no-brainers for Southwest, with the arguable exception of BWI which is too short for much local O+D traffic.

We'll see how Indy-Newark does in place of IND-LGA.

Vctony wrote:

enilria wrote:

WN PHX-ABQ JAN 7>6 FEB 7>6
WN PHX-BNA JAN 3>1.9
WN PHX-IND DEC 1.9>1.1
*WN PHX-LIT JAN 1.0>0.2 FEB 1.0>0
*WN PHX-MCI FEB 4>3
WN PHX-MCO DEC 1.6>1.2
WN PHX-MSY DEC 1.7>1.1
WN PHX-ONT JAN 6>7 FEB 6>7
WN PHX-SNA DEC 8>6 JAN 8>7 FEB 8>7
WN PHX-TUL DEC 3>1.5

Some big cuts for PHX.

I wonder if F9 and/or G4's presence on some of these routes is the cause of these cuts.

I didn't expect PHX - LIT to last forever but am sad to see it go.

Rumor has it that LIT and TUL are on the short list for Eagle.

Wingtips56 wrote:

polywad6963 wrote:

*AA PHX-YEG NOV 0>0.9 DEC 0>1.0 JAN 0>1.0 FEB 0>1.0

Seasonal for the winter birds I suppose.

Yes. It runs through 3 May, per AA internal site "Jetwire".
Enter Edmonton
American will return to Edmonton, Canada (YEG) on Nov. 5, with nonstop seasonal service from PHX through May 3, 2018. The flights will be operated by Mesa Airlines as American Eagle, using Bombardier CRJ-900 aircraft. The service will be available for sale on Saturday, June 24.

Nothing exactly surprising here, route was great here and I find it funny that we considered it as not running. There was no way AA was going to pass up the market.

n7371f wrote:

PlanesNTrains wrote:

Still can't get my head around WN GEG-SMF. Looks like it provides some good feed GEG-SoCal but is somewhat of a unique route for them in the PNW.

Actually GEG-SMF has enough daily passengers to warrant a nonstop or two. ExpressJet ran it twice daily back in the day and was told by GEG Airport folks that it was one of ExpressJet's few good performers (along with GEG-SAN I believe...might've been GEG-ONT). Horizon tried it with the disgraceful Q400 and it failed.

Your point about further south connections, stops to SoCal is a fair point though...doesn't hurt.

Ya it just seemed a bit odd for WN, though I don't doubt that there are folks in the corridor. XJ seemed to do well in SAN so perhaps it was that one.

flymco753 wrote:

lavalampluva wrote:

*AM DTW-MTY JUL 1.0>0.5 AUG 1.0>0 SEP 1.0>0 OCT 1.0>0 NOV 1.0>0 DEC 1.0>0 JAN 1.0>0 FEB 1.0>0

Well...that didn't last long.

Yes because the codeshare was never placed on this route, so there were 0 connecting pax. MEX OTOH is doing fine with the codeshare added onto it.

Another thing about MTY was you had 2x daily flights (319, E90) and IMO that's too many seats, if any airline wants to make a difference it would be Y4, and its heavily discussed in the Detroit thread that MTY, GDL and MEX and possibly QRO could all be added by Y4 because they all simply make sense for the kind of market DTW has, auto with a little mixture of leisure.

Since when has a codeshare been neccisiary for connections? I do however, find it strange that they didn't codeshare. Was there a reason they couldn't?

Aliqiout wrote:

flymco753 wrote:

lavalampluva wrote:

Well...that didn't last long.

Yes because the codeshare was never placed on this route, so there were 0 connecting pax. MEX OTOH is doing fine with the codeshare added onto it.

Another thing about MTY was you had 2x daily flights (319, E90) and IMO that's too many seats, if any airline wants to make a difference it would be Y4, and its heavily discussed in the Detroit thread that MTY, GDL and MEX and possibly QRO could all be added by Y4 because they all simply make sense for the kind of market DTW has, auto with a little mixture of leisure.

Since when has a codeshare been neccisiary for connections? I do however, find it strange that they didn't codeshare. Was there a reason they couldn't?

I've studied it up a little, last week and the week before, and the week before, I noticed MTY on AM was never bookable on DL's website, but the reciprocal was. Ever since the codeshare was set on MEX, someone at AM OPS told me the loads have increased along with premium seats. You're able to book TVC-DTW-MEX on AM whereas you wouldn't with MTY. It was strange, I don't know why they didn't do it.

[threeid][/threeid]AM with no DL codeshare on DTW-MTY was never going to garner any sort of meaningful amount of DTW O&D of DL-DTW connections.
In fact the average DTW business traveler may not be savy enough to know they are Skyteam partners, or really even want to fly AM versus DL (or AA or UA).

The DL flight times morning southbound, afternoon northbound is also much more favorable for the DTW originating traffic and US originating traffic connecting over DTW, versus the AM flight which was morning northbound, afternoon southbound. The AM flight essentially loses two days of travel versus being on-site in Mexico where at with the DL flight time you can still get a half day on-site the on either of the travel days.

(Trust me I commuted weekly for 6 months DTW-MTY, but this was before the nonstops and I had to connect in IAH each way, but this was back in the day of when NW & CO had their codeshare and FF partnership).

The AM flight times heavily catered more to the MTY originating traffic and/or MTY connections to feed into DTW and DL-DTW connections.

WN MKE-CUN DEC 0.2>0 JAN 0.1>0 FEB 0.1>0
WN MKE-MSP DEC 1.4>0 JAN 1.7>0 FEB 1.7>0
WN MKE-SAN DEC 0.9>0 JAN 1.0>0 FEB 1.0>0
WN MKE-SEA DEC 0.9>0
WN MKE-SFO DEC 0.9>0 JAN 1.0>0 FEB 1.0>0
WN MKE-STL JAN 1.0>1.9 FEB 1.0>1.8
WN MKE-TPA JAN 1.7>1.3

Seems like MKE is the biggest loser of this WN schedule release. MKE loses all direct flights to SAN and the San Francisco area. Perhaps UA will begin flights to SFO?

IND is the runner up with the loss of DCA and LGA.

[/quote]

Seems like MKE is the biggest loser of this WN schedule release. MKE loses all direct flights to SAN and the San Francisco area. Perhaps UA will begin flights to SFO?

IND is the runner up with the loss of DCA and LGA.[/quote]

That was my question when I saw that. Has MKE been that bad for WN? FL seemed to make it work...

orangeguy wrote:

WN MKE-CUN DEC 0.2>0 JAN 0.1>0 FEB 0.1>0
WN MKE-MSP DEC 1.4>0 JAN 1.7>0 FEB 1.7>0
WN MKE-SAN DEC 0.9>0 JAN 1.0>0 FEB 1.0>0
WN MKE-SEA DEC 0.9>0
WN MKE-SFO DEC 0.9>0 JAN 1.0>0 FEB 1.0>0
WN MKE-STL JAN 1.0>1.9 FEB 1.0>1.8
WN MKE-TPA JAN 1.7>1.3

Seems like MKE is the biggest loser of this WN schedule release. MKE loses all direct flights to SAN and the San Francisco area. Perhaps UA will begin flights to SFO?

IND is the runner up with the loss of DCA and LGA.

Could some of these cuts be related to WN's plane crunch, MKE-SFO/SAN in 2016 were both at 89% of seats filled for the year, with an average fare around $214 and $190 respectively which doesn't sound like they were underperforming...

MSP was a gimmee though, and SEA is probably hurting from the rise of AS

Wingtips56 wrote:

polywad6963 wrote:

*AA PHX-YEG NOV 0>0.9 DEC 0>1.0 JAN 0>1.0 FEB 0>1.0

Seasonal for the winter birds I suppose.

Yes. It runs through 3 May, per AA internal site "Jetwire".
Enter Edmonton
American will return to Edmonton, Canada (YEG) on Nov. 5, with nonstop seasonal service from PHX through May 3, 2018. The flights will be operated by Mesa Airlines as American Eagle, using Bombardier CRJ-900 aircraft. The service will be available for sale on Saturday, June 24.

It was shocking to ever see cut this route outright in the first place. Seasonal service makes sense and should easily fill up. Hopefully this is the first sign of transborder coming back a bit outside of Canada's 4 hubs.

enilria wrote:

FAQ


AC FLL-YHZ JAN 0.3>0.1 FEB 0.3>0.1
AC STL-YYZ NOV 1.7>3 DEC 1.7>3 JAN 1.7>3 FEB 1.7>3

Interesting AC adds from STL. The only reason i can think of is being proactive vs Westjet after the success of BNA.

orangeguy wrote:

WN MKE-CUN DEC 0.2>0 JAN 0.1>0 FEB 0.1>0
WN MKE-MSP DEC 1.4>0 JAN 1.7>0 FEB 1.7>0
WN MKE-SAN DEC 0.9>0 JAN 1.0>0 FEB 1.0>0
WN MKE-SEA DEC 0.9>0
WN MKE-SFO DEC 0.9>0 JAN 1.0>0 FEB 1.0>0
WN MKE-STL JAN 1.0>1.9 FEB 1.0>1.8
WN MKE-TPA JAN 1.7>1.3

Seems like MKE is the biggest loser of this WN schedule release. MKE loses all direct flights to SAN and the San Francisco area. Perhaps UA will begin flights to SFO?

IND is the runner up with the loss of DCA and LGA.

Actually most of those MKE changes came with the November schedule release, and there were some offsetting increases.
--SFO and SAN were announced as seasonal cuts. As others have noted there are an unusual number of seasonal cuts to long-haul flying this winter. Given the current fleet shortage I suspect this is their solution to permit the routine seasonal sunbird flight increases.
--MSP was lost, but two new markets CLE and BNA were added with 2x each.
--Saturday Cancun service ends this fall in conjunction with the termination of a travel company contract.

Southwest's Milwaukee traffic has inched up marginally year after year (in spite of more trims than additions) largely due to larger, fuller planes. And when you strip away the noise of connecting traffic (which has decreased) and contract international flying (which is all Norwegian now) Southwest is up 7.4% in Milwaukee 2013-2016:

2,678,926 2013
2,713,963 2014
2,787,897 2015
2,877,168 2016

So losing SAN and especially SFO this winter is disappointing, though they are to return. They could open the door for United and/or Alaska/Virgin, but even if they don't Southwest will be back. And Cleveland and Nashville are nice additions which Southwest picked up at a time when very few new daily routes have been added.

alasizon wrote:

Vctony wrote:

enilria wrote:

WN PHX-ABQ JAN 7>6 FEB 7>6
WN PHX-BNA JAN 3>1.9
WN PHX-IND DEC 1.9>1.1
*WN PHX-LIT JAN 1.0>0.2 FEB 1.0>0
*WN PHX-MCI FEB 4>3
WN PHX-MCO DEC 1.6>1.2
WN PHX-MSY DEC 1.7>1.1
WN PHX-ONT JAN 6>7 FEB 6>7
WN PHX-SNA DEC 8>6 JAN 8>7 FEB 8>7
WN PHX-TUL DEC 3>1.5

Some big cuts for PHX.

I wonder if F9 and/or G4's presence on some of these routes is the cause of these cuts.

I didn't expect PHX - LIT to last forever but am sad to see it go.

Rumor has it that LIT and TUL are on the short list for Eagle.

Wingtips56 wrote:

polywad6963 wrote:

*AA PHX-YEG NOV 0>0.9 DEC 0>1.0 JAN 0>1.0 FEB 0>1.0

Seasonal for the winter birds I suppose.

Yes. It runs through 3 May, per AA internal site "Jetwire".
Enter Edmonton
American will return to Edmonton, Canada (YEG) on Nov. 5, with nonstop seasonal service from PHX through May 3, 2018. The flights will be operated by Mesa Airlines as American Eagle, using Bombardier CRJ-900 aircraft. The service will be available for sale on Saturday, June 24.

Nothing exactly surprising here, route was great here and I find it funny that we considered it as not running. There was no way AA was going to pass up the market.

LIT and TUL make some sense (TUL moreso). However, with the latest Eagle additions it seems that COS, ICT, OKC, and YYC would make a bit more sense than any of these. Mainline BNA, MSY, and RDU seem to be the biggest holes and with WN cutting BNA and MSY it seems that AA could have some opportunity there.

Vctony wrote:

LIT and TUL make some sense (TUL moreso). However, with the latest Eagle additions it seems that COS, ICT, OKC, and YYC would make a bit more sense than any of these. Mainline BNA, MSY, and RDU seem to be the biggest holes and with WN cutting BNA and MSY it seems that AA could have some opportunity there.

While AA's capacity overall in PHX is down since the merger, I've been happily proven wrong about AA's ability to harness PHX's geography, place within the broader AA network and a fleet of RJs (that Southwest obviously can't match) to make some interesting adds out of PHX. With that said, all of the above - gate availability allowing - seem plausible to me:

* daily A319 to BNA, MSY and RDU
* daily CR9 to ICT*, OKC and (probably seasonally) YYC
* daily CR7 to COS*, LIT and TUL*

*I could also see COS, TUL and maybe ICT getting a daily CR7 to LAX (maybe twice daily for COS)

Midwestindy wrote:

orangeguy wrote:

WN MKE-CUN DEC 0.2>0 JAN 0.1>0 FEB 0.1>0
WN MKE-MSP DEC 1.4>0 JAN 1.7>0 FEB 1.7>0
WN MKE-SAN DEC 0.9>0 JAN 1.0>0 FEB 1.0>0
WN MKE-SEA DEC 0.9>0
WN MKE-SFO DEC 0.9>0 JAN 1.0>0 FEB 1.0>0
WN MKE-STL JAN 1.0>1.9 FEB 1.0>1.8
WN MKE-TPA JAN 1.7>1.3

Seems like MKE is the biggest loser of this WN schedule release. MKE loses all direct flights to SAN and the San Francisco area. Perhaps UA will begin flights to SFO?

IND is the runner up with the loss of DCA and LGA.

Could some of these cuts be related to WN's plane crunch, MKE-SFO/SAN in 2016 were both at 89% of seats filled for the year, with an average fare around $214 and $190 respectively which doesn't sound like they were underperforming...

MSP was a gimmee though, and SEA is probably hurting from the rise of AS

WN cut a lot of flights to SEA (i.e. HOU, BWI, AUS), but I believe a lot of that is seasonal flying which I'd imagine is partially driven by the Alaskan cruises out of SEA in the summer.

knope2001 wrote:

Actually most of those MKE changes came with the November schedule release, and there were some offsetting increases.
--SFO and SAN were announced as seasonal cuts. As others have noted there are an unusual number of seasonal cuts to long-haul flying this winter. Given the current fleet shortage I suspect this is their solution to permit the routine seasonal sunbird flight increases.
--MSP was lost, but two new markets CLE and BNA were added with 2x each.
--Saturday Cancun service ends this fall in conjunction with the termination of a travel company contract.

Southwest's Milwaukee traffic has inched up marginally year after year (in spite of more trims than additions) largely due to larger, fuller planes. And when you strip away the noise of connecting traffic (which has decreased) and contract international flying (which is all Norwegian now) Southwest is up 7.4% in Milwaukee 2013-2016:

2,678,926 2013
2,713,963 2014
2,787,897 2015
2,877,168 2016

So losing SAN and especially SFO this winter is disappointing, though they are to return. They could open the door for United and/or Alaska/Virgin, but even if they don't Southwest will be back. And Cleveland and Nashville are nice additions which Southwest picked up at a time when very few new daily routes have been added.

Thanks for the clarification. Agree that this is likely due to fleet shortage. BNA is a particularly good pickup given that airport's increasing importance in the WN network and certainly offers lots of connection opportunities.

4everRC wrote:

That was my question when I saw that. Has MKE been that bad for WN? FL seemed to make it work...

I don't think FL every really did make it work.

4everRC wrote:

That was my question when I saw that. Has MKE been that bad for WN? FL seemed to make it work...

I didn’t really address a key point of this. AirTran ran a coordinated connecting hub in Milwaukee with a great deal of connecting and thru traffic. That’s not how Southwest operates a station like Milwaukee and so connecting traffic is incidental. As an example Southwest has been averaging about 385 connecting passengers per day at Milwaukee this year. Definitely a nice little bump, and many second-tier Southwest stations like Albuquerque, Sacramento, Indianapolis, San Antonio see roughly this sort of boost. AirTran had months during their peak where they ran more than 3,000 online connecting passengers per day through Milwaukee, and that number doesn’t count thru passengers nor connections to/from Skywest code-share flights. If you divide that by roughly 50 daily departures that’s 60 connecting passengers per flight. Considering that AirTran ran 117-seat and 137-seat aircraft at Milwaukee, having 60 connecting passengers aboard is huge.

So Southwest doesn’t run the same sort of frequencies in many MKE markets which AirTran did. But with larger planes and far, far fewer connections that’s not a function of Southwest doing poorly or failing to find support. Of course (for example) Southwest would be happier with four LaGuardia flights and an 80% market share against Delta instead of the relatively even split they have had. But I think things are a lot healthier in Milwaukee for Southwest today than things were for AirTran back in the boom days 5-7 years ago. And that’s a much better platform for sustained growth.

stl07 wrote:

enilria wrote:

FAQ


AC FLL-YHZ JAN 0.3>0.1 FEB 0.3>0.1
AC STL-YYZ NOV 1.7>3 DEC 1.7>3 JAN 1.7>3 FEB 1.7>3

Interesting AC adds from STL. The only reason i can think of is being proactive vs Westjet after the success of BNA.

I'd guess AC are simply seeing increased demand from STL for connections, especially to AC's enormous international route network at YYZ than any threat from WS. WS usually want codeshare feed in markets with at least a 50% business component (e.g. DL at BOS and LGA, AA at ORD and DFW, etc.). I'd hazard a guess that WS' BNA flights attract > 50% leisure pax. STL isn't exactly top of mind in terms of leisure destinations, so I'd be shocked to see them ever go there as there are minimal codeshare partner opportunities at STL...unless the previously announced WS-WN codeshare agreement ever actually comes to fruition.

orangeguy wrote:

WN MKE-CUN DEC 0.2>0 JAN 0.1>0 FEB 0.1>0
WN MKE-MSP DEC 1.4>0 JAN 1.7>0 FEB 1.7>0
WN MKE-SAN DEC 0.9>0 JAN 1.0>0 FEB 1.0>0
WN MKE-SEA DEC 0.9>0
WN MKE-SFO DEC 0.9>0 JAN 1.0>0 FEB 1.0>0
WN MKE-STL JAN 1.0>1.9 FEB 1.0>1.8
WN MKE-TPA JAN 1.7>1.3

Seems like MKE is the biggest loser of this WN schedule release. MKE loses all direct flights to SAN and the San Francisco area. Perhaps UA will begin flights to SFO?

IND is the runner up with the loss of DCA and LGA.

Not shown here, 2x daily MKE-BNA are coming.

Dominion301 wrote:

stl07 wrote:

enilria wrote:

FAQ


AC FLL-YHZ JAN 0.3>0.1 FEB 0.3>0.1
AC STL-YYZ NOV 1.7>3 DEC 1.7>3 JAN 1.7>3 FEB 1.7>3

Interesting AC adds from STL. The only reason i can think of is being proactive vs Westjet after the success of BNA.

I'd guess AC are simply seeing increased demand from STL for connections, especially to AC's enormous international route network at YYZ than any threat from WS. WS usually want codeshare feed in markets with at least a 50% business component (e.g. DL at BOS and LGA, AA at ORD and DFW, etc.). I'd hazard a guess that WS' BNA flights attract > 50% leisure pax. STL isn't exactly top of mind in terms of leisure destinations, so I'd be shocked to see them ever go there as there are minimal codeshare partner opportunities at STL...unless the previously announced WS-WN codeshare agreement ever actually comes to fruition.

Makes sense, if they feared competition they would have upgraded the plane size.

knope2001 wrote:

enilria wrote:

Didn't they drop EWR-HOU a year ago? Anyway, I generally agree. Outside BWI they struggle in the NE.

In the handful of years since they started Newark (I think it was 2011 or 2012) they've started and dropped flights to Houston, New Orleans, Baltimore and Nashville. Those are the sorts of markets one would expect to be no-brainers for Southwest, with the arguable exception of BWI which is too short for much local O+D traffic.

We'll see how Indy-Newark does in place of IND-LGA.

Also EWR-LAS was tried.

ITs A little tiny route in sure no one cares about, but I'm surprised DCA-ILM is going. Probably more of a slots thing but that's a route that has always fascinated me. Sad for Wilmington.

ahj2000 wrote:

ITs A little tiny route in sure no one cares about, but I'm surprised DCA-ILM is going. Probably more of a slots thing but that's a route that has always fascinated me. Sad for Wilmington.

I'm pretty sure DCA-ILM is a seasonal route. It probably just means the season's end date has been pushed to the end of October and not an outright cancellation.