What do you think?

These are my candidates:

1. Air China: Finavia's aim is that some Chinese airlines would launch flights to HEL within next three years. I think Air China is the most likely.
2. Air India: I read somewhere the Indian carrier would introduce flights to Helsinki.
3. Cathay Pacific: Passenger numbers on route between Helsinki and Hong Kong was 182,000 in 2016 and may rise up to approx. 220,000 in 2017.
4. Emirates: As of Sep 2017, Qatar Airways will operate Boeing 787 to Helsinki due to great demand. I believe there's more demand on the HEL-DXB -route.
5. Korean Air: The route between Helsinki and Seoul has seen rapid growth in passenger numbers within last few years. However, no Korean carrier operate on the route.
6. Thai Airways: HEL-BKK is the 2nd busiest intercontinental route from HEL with around 260,000 passengers in 2016.
7. Norwegian: Norwegian is reportedly planning to launch long haul flight from HEL in 2018.

Is there more candidates?
If there is, tell your expectations: the airline, weekly frequencies and the aircraft (largest aircraft is Boeing 777 at this time).

Note: Finnair, Japan Airlines and Qatar Airways already operate from/to Helsinki.

Beijing Capital Airlines has planned flights to Helsinki.

Norwegian will probably begin long haul at some point.

Yeah, Beijing Capital Airlines planned flights for May 2017 but didn't begin. They launched flights to Madrid and Copenhagen (which isn't operated anymore) instead, but I hope the airline will come to Helsinki soon.

United Airlines or Air Canada Rouge

American Airlines is in the oneworld alliance with Finnair, and AA could add nonstop service to DFW, ORD, and JFK out of HEL. American Airlines can provide connections through DFW to destinations in the Southwestern United States, Southern California, Hawaii, and Latin America, and AA adding DFW-HEL nonstop service can provide Finnish customers with easier access to these destinations. In addition, AA's partner Finnair would be able to provide customers traveling from Texas, the Southwestern U.S., Southern California, Hawaii, and Latin America with access to connections to destinations in Finland, Norway, Sweden, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Russia if AA added DFW-HEL nonstop service.

jplatts wrote:

American Airlines is in the oneworld alliance with Finnair, and AA could add nonstop service to DFW, ORD, and JFK out of HEL.

Not going to happen. They will not compete on JFK-HEL and AA did operate ORD-HEL, but it was transferred to Finnair. There is just no reason to compete against each other and there is no need for such many flights.

Norwegian is the most likely airline to compete with Finnair from HEL to the US in the future.

DFW is a possibility for Finnair in the future, but Finnair's strategy is in the Asia, not in the US. They just got new rights to fly over Russia to Busan, Nanjing and Sapporo.

jplatts wrote:

American Airlines is in the oneworld alliance with Finnair, and AA could add nonstop service to DFW, ORD, and JFK out of HEL. American Airlines can provide connections through DFW to destinations in the Southwestern United States, Southern California, Hawaii, and Latin America, and AA adding DFW-HEL nonstop service can provide Finnish customers with easier access to these destinations. In addition, AA's partner Finnair would be able to provide customers traveling from Texas, the Southwestern U.S., Southern California, Hawaii, and Latin America with access to connections to destinations in Finland, Norway, Sweden, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Russia if AA added DFW-HEL nonstop service.

I agree with DFW-HEL. In addition Dallas is not served from the Nordic Countries. Service from LAX would be possible as well. Maybe AA could launch 3 or 4 weekly flights from DFW and LAX to HEL with Boeing 767-300ER and Boeing 777-200ER respectively. Flights from JFK or ORD is unlikely because Finnair already has services to these cities.

QuawerAir wrote:

What do you think?

These are my candidates:

1. Air China: Finavia's aim is that some Chinese airlines would launch flights to HEL within next three years. I think Air China is the most likely.
2. Air India: I read somewhere the Indian carrier would introduce flights to Helsinki.
3. Cathay Pacific: Passenger numbers on route between Helsinki and Hong Kong was 182,000 in 2016 and may rise up to approx. 220,000 in 2017.
4. Emirates: As of Sep 2017, Qatar Airways will operate Boeing 787 to Helsinki due to great demand. I believe there's more demand on the HEL-DXB -route.
5. Korean Air: The route between Helsinki and Seoul has seen rapid growth in passenger numbers within last few years. However, no Korean carrier operate on the route.
6. Thai Airways: HEL-BKK is the 2nd busiest intercontinental route from HEL with around 260,000 passengers in 2016.
7. Norwegian: Norwegian is reportedly planning to launch long haul flight from HEL in 2018.

Is there more candidates?
If there is, tell your expectations: the airline, weekly frequencies and the aircraft (largest aircraft is Boeing 777 at this time).

Note: Finnair, Japan Airlines and Qatar Airways already operate from/to Helsinki.

1. is not going to happen as Air China is with Star Alliance. They would not get any feed from Helsinki. Helsinki to East Asia is based on transit passengers between Europe and Asia.
2. I do not see this happening either. No O/D between HEL and India. Even Finnair shut down their BOM route a few years ago. Air India is also in the wrong alliance.
3. Strong maybe, if they can work out the feed with AY. Best would be to align with the afternoon bank to complement Finnairs red eye/early morning bank.
4. Maybe, although Qatar and Turkish have already tapped into that market pretty well.
5. Nope, wrong alliance. See 1 & 2. No significant O/D between HEL and Korea.
6. Maybe, they used to fly it. Would be competing with the AY's O/D traffic.
7. This is my strongest candidate of the seven above. Still a lot of ifs though. Destination would be the US or BKK.

The long haul operations from HEL are based on transit passengers. The O/D from Finland is strong enough to support maybe BKK and JFK, that's it. Everything else relies on the feed. That means that any long haul carriers coming to HEL would need to work out the feed issue. That in turn pretty much limits the options to OneWorld carriers. AA was here a few years ago and left, could not make it work. AY already does JFK,MIA,ORD and SFO so I do not see the demand for additional traffic from the US. It does not even make sense for AA to connect with AY's Asia flights, with the possible exception of DEL.

Best would be for JAL to upcauge/add frequencies. Although that too would be problematic as the schedules would only fit nicely with the AY afternoon bank.

I would say that most likely, Cathay Pacific and Emirates are the next long haul airlines at Helsinki. Cathay Pacific is a oneworld partner, and Emirates would offer dozens of connections from Dubai for Helsinki passengers.

Im unsure the likelyhood, but AA, if it tries again, would most likely try PHL. For many communities PHL-HEL-east Asia would be quicker than flying west to Asia. Plus its a JV partner hub without any current AA metal touching it.

kruiseri wrote:

QuawerAir wrote:

What do you think?
1. is not going to happen as Air China is with Star Alliance. They would not get any feed from Helsinki. Helsinki to East Asia is based on transit passengers between Europe and Asia.

In theory they could get lots of feed from * partners: SK from CPH, OSL, ARN; LH from FRA, MUC; LO from WAW; TP from LIS and some smaller airlines like Adria and Aegean. Of course the question is, would these partners be willing to codeshare on this route.

NichCage wrote:

I would say that most likely, Cathay Pacific and Emirates are the next long haul airlines at Helsinki. Cathay Pacific is a oneworld partner, and Emirates would offer dozens of connections from Dubai for Helsinki passengers.

I agree with you. For Emirates, Helsinki might be the main unserved capital in Europe. EK already operates to ARN, CPH and OSL in the Nordics.

Finnair's CEO just said rather than opening new routes to North-America their goal is to improve current services, preferably making all routes year-round. Currently they only have 10% of their capacity in N-America, comparing to 50% in Asia, that's their bread and butter

PatrickZ80 wrote:

Aeromexico perhaps? There are no direct flights between Finland and Mexico.

Actually the first ever direct scheduled service between Finland and Mexico will start in November when Finnair open A350 servce to Puerto Vallarta. I'm afraid there are no markets for much more than to this kind of leisure orientated, seasonal 1x weekly service.

before I even opened the thread my answer was CX. it's kind of surprising they haven't tapped into AY's European feed, but at the same time they are trying to build their own EU network anyway. I still stick with them. Emirates and Norwegian would be next

PatrickZ80 wrote:

Aeromexico perhaps? There are no direct flights between Finland and Mexico.

On the other hand, Aeromexico is in a joint venture with Air France-KLM so you can always fly Helsinki - Amsterdam - Mexico City on KLM / Aeromexico.

According to the air traffic agreement between Finland and Mexico, airlines are allowed to fly from Mexico to Finland either non-stop or with a stopover at any airport at least in Europe. Thus for example Aeromexico could launch MEX-AMS-HEL route. However this may not allow passenger traffic between AMS and HEL.

EricAY05 wrote:

kruiseri wrote:

QuawerAir wrote:

What do you think?
1. is not going to happen as Air China is with Star Alliance. They would not get any feed from Helsinki. Helsinki to East Asia is based on transit passengers between Europe and Asia.

In theory they could get lots of feed from * partners: SK from CPH, OSL, ARN; LH from FRA, MUC; LO from WAW; TP from LIS and some smaller airlines like Adria and Aegean. Of course the question is, would these partners be willing to codeshare on this route.

Air China or Beijing Capital Airlines are pretty likely because there has been more and more O/D traffic between China and Finland. Last year there were much more Chinese people in Finland compared to 2015. That's why Finavia is waiting for the first Chinese airline to launch flights to Finland.

PatrickZ80 wrote:

Aeromexico perhaps? There are no direct flights between Finland and Mexico.

On the other hand, Aeromexico is in a joint venture with Air France-KLM so you can always fly Helsinki - Amsterdam - Mexico City on KLM / Aeromexico.

Seriously? How much traffic can that route conceivably generate. The are at least 15 cities in Europe that AM would go into befor HEL.

Finavia has indeed said that there's been dialogue with Chinese carriers for a while already and they are hoping flights could start in 1-3 years. Xi Jinping's visit to Finland did give the country a decent amount of exposure in China but I don't think such matters were discussed at any level during the visit. Chinese overnight stays have grown signifigantly past few years especially in Lapland and Alitrip wants to bring a lot more of them, much more than there's accommodation capacity available in the north. Some Chinese investors have put their money in hotel and cabin construction projects as well.

Beijing Capital Airlines was supposed to fly to Helsinki last year but those would have been just seasonal charter flights (didn't they fly to CPH?). The new agreement between Finland and China ok'd flights from China to Lapland but that's a bit far-fetched. There are also no major Oneworld carriers in China but in any case they would need to co-operate with Finnair to make it work.

Cathay Pacific is unlikely even though both CX and AY are part of Oneworld. Finnair now has 10 weekly flights to HKG since the start of June.

Air India is not going to happen. They will soon start Copenhagen and Stockholm (Star Alliance) and I don't think the demand to/from the Nordics is that strong especially as Finnair already flies to Delhi.

Same goes for any Korean airline - wrong alliance. But having said that the growth on Seoul pax numbers has been very good recently and frankly I wouldn't be surprised if Finnair wanted to add frequencies to ICN.

Regarding Emirates it's difficult to say. Given that both Finnair and Norwegian fly the route in the winter you would think that there's demand but a triple seven is maybe a little too much plane to fill. There's no space for three airlines on the route that's for sure.

Norwegian has said they will fly long-haul from HEL but to where I wonder? Bangkok or USA? BKK would still have to take a detour to avoid Russian airspace while Finnair will have 16 weekly flights to Bangkok next winter season so that's why I'm doubtful about it. Thai Airways again, wrong alliance and I don't think they can compete with cheaper fares especially now that QR came to HEL.

QF PER to HEL

It would be 100pc connecting traffic but would give QF a oneworld point better placed for Europe than London... and avoid DXB.

Can't see it happening though.

redroo wrote:

QF PER to HEL

It would be 100pc connecting traffic but would give QF a oneworld point better placed for Europe than London... and avoid DXB.

Can't see it happening though.

Good idea, AY already feed JAL in HEL so why not QF And PER-HEL is 763nm shorter than PER-LHR

PER-HEL 7066nm
PER-LHR 7829nm

Funny nobody mentioned ET to ADD, probably through another European city, new or already existing in their network, just the way they opened ARN and OSL. Maybe HEL-WAW-ADD?

PHL-HEL AA 767-300

Vantaa is a perfect hub for Europe - Asia flights. And for East Coast USA flights to Asia.
It is especially true at the time when Moscow hub is split between DME and SVO (and VKO to an extend). Plus, politics plays for HEL in this respect.
However what seems to be feasible not always translates into a real business opportunity taken.
There are Gardemoen and Arlanda and other airports wishing to become players.

Westjet from YYZ when they get their 787s I could see doing this at least two times a week..... there is a lot of travel to Canada from there during the summer months for the RV Rental market

Not directly related to this, but I've always wondered why when stepping out of the Helsinki Central railway station there's an Air China sign and office in one of the most prominent spots. As far as I'm aware CA has never flown to Helsinki. Is it just because of the codeshare with Finnair on PVG and PEK routes?

I'd go for some Chinese as well. EY is not growing so much up north and EK has no right planes for hel. DY can't fly eastward. So some Chinese that can use AY feed, oneworld one. No star or skyteam. Few choices left.

I'm surprised no one has mentioned Hainan. PEK-HEL seems right up their alley.

What about EY and AUH-HEL? I would think that this should still be in the range for an A320 service.
EK would have to start with either 772 or 77W but if someone could make it work it is EK.
To me either of those two is more likely than anyone else besides Finnair opening another route to Asia unless they are in Oneworld like CX and can use Finnairs European connections.

etops1 wrote:

PHL-HEL AA 767-300

there may or may not be a good chance of this happening...

I will sat Cathay Pacific, as both CX and AY are in oneworld and it would be in line with Finnair's growth to China strategy where both could form a JV.

EY with A320 might work but only if EK stays away. It's just a bit unlikely that EY would start HEL before CPH, ARN or OSL. I'm not too sure Nordic countries in general have markets big enough for all ME3 carriers.

I'm in the same boat as many others and think it will be a Chinese carrier, but something tells me it will be just charters at first. In related news, the PM of Finland is visiting China this week with a business delegation and one of the companies involved is Finavia, which is the operator of HEL. Maybe there will be some discussions.

ninspeed wrote:

Westjet from YYZ when they get their 787s I could see doing this at least two times a week..... there is a lot of travel to Canada from there during the summer months for the RV Rental market

I severely doubt Westjet or even Rouge for that matter would consider HEL. Finnair used to run a summer seasonal x3 weekly A330 flights from YYZ-HEL for years but they discontinued it 2 years ago and have not returned. I took that flight twice and both times they were packed full and I'd venture to guess that 90% of the pax on the flight were connecting to other parts of Europe and Asia. If Finnair couldn't make a x3 weekly seasonal flight work, even with all the feeder traffic through their hub, I don't see Westjet or Rouge making money at all. The market isn't big enough to warrant a direct, p2p flight when you can literally connect one stop from anywhere in Europe to all the major cities in Canada.

A friend who works at the oneworld office told me it is likely Finnair will launch HEL-LAX with the A350 next spring.

Nami wrote:

EY with A320 might work but only if EK stays away. It's just a bit unlikely that EY would start HEL before CPH, ARN or OSL. I'm not too sure Nordic countries in general have markets big enough for all ME3 carriers.

I'm in the same boat as many others and think it will be a Chinese carrier, but something tells me it will be just charters at first. In related news, the PM of Finland is visiting China this week with a business delegation and one of the companies involved is Finavia, which is the operator of HEL. Maybe there will be some discussions.

For the amount of traffic that's currently going there I think EY is doing the right thing and funnelling that through TXL on to AB with codeshares and interline flights. Don't see a need for them to start directs from AUH.

Obzerva wrote:

Nami wrote:

EY with A320 might work but only if EK stays away. It's just a bit unlikely that EY would start HEL before CPH, ARN or OSL. I'm not too sure Nordic countries in general have markets big enough for all ME3 carriers.

I'm in the same boat as many others and think it will be a Chinese carrier, but something tells me it will be just charters at first. In related news, the PM of Finland is visiting China this week with a business delegation and one of the companies involved is Finavia, which is the operator of HEL. Maybe there will be some discussions.

For the amount of traffic that's currently going there I think EY is doing the right thing and funnelling that through TXL on to AB with codeshares and interline flights. Don't see a need for them to start directs from AUH.

Well that's true, I had already forgotten I once actually flew HEL-TXL-AUH. But there's 36 A320/A321 coming so you never know.

gregn21 wrote:

A friend who works at the oneworld office told me it is likely Finnair will launch HEL-LAX with the A350 next spring.

Would be cool if Finnair returned to LAX but I'm afraid not any time soon. They just got the rights to fly to Sapporo, Nanjing and Busan, their next LH destination probably is one of those. That would be their 18th destination in Asia, which is their bread and butter. North-America is much more challenging to them

TWA772LR wrote:

I'm surprised no one has mentioned Hainan. PEK-HEL seems right up their alley.

Actually that's a really good idea. Now HU is my vote

TWA772LR wrote:

I'm surprised no one has mentioned Hainan. PEK-HEL seems right up their alley.

Because Hainan owns majority of Beijing Capital Airlines that was supposed to start PEK-HEL flights.

finnishway wrote:

jplatts wrote:

American Airlines is in the oneworld alliance with Finnair, and AA could add nonstop service to DFW, ORD, and JFK out of HEL.

Not going to happen. They will not compete on JFK-HEL and AA did operate ORD-HEL, but it was transferred to Finnair. There is just no reason to compete against each other and there is no need for such many flights.

Norwegian is the most likely airline to compete with Finnair from HEL to the US in the future.

DFW is a possibility for Finnair in the future, but Finnair's strategy is in the Asia, not in the US. They just got new rights to fly over Russia to Busan, Nanjing and Sapporo.

AY is in the TATL JV, it wouldn't be competition. I think it might be likely for them to coordinate an AA flight to an AA hub or to use AA if they want to add capacity on an existing route.

LupineChemist wrote:

AY is in the TATL JV, it wouldn't be competition. I think it might be likely for them to coordinate an AA flight to an AA hub or to use AA if they want to add capacity on an existing route.

There is no need currently for extra capacity on any existing route. There is no need for two daily flights to JFK. MIA, ORD & SFO are seasonal.

finnishway wrote:

LupineChemist wrote:

AY is in the TATL JV, it wouldn't be competition. I think it might be likely for them to coordinate an AA flight to an AA hub or to use AA if they want to add capacity on an existing route.

There is no need currently for extra capacity on any existing route. There is no need for two daily flights to JFK. MIA, ORD & SFO are seasonal.

Finnair's CEO believe their next step in Northern-America is to make the seasonal routes year-round. AY CEO interviewed: https://skift.com/2017/06/19/ceo-interv ... se-market/

Thanks to the TATL JV it's always possible AA jumps in, would be cool see them back in HEL.

One question on my mind regarding for example CX is that while the airport operator would probably welcome them would Finnair really want to work with CX? AY now has 9 A350s with 10 more to come, they have to put them somewhere and that's quite a lot of new capacity when considering they only need one aircraft to most destinations in Asia. They also plan to hold on to their A330s for up to 8-10 years more. A lot of AY's future growth will be dependent on bilateral agreements and Russian overflight permits.

Well I guess if some obstacles appear in the future they can just start phasing out the A330 fleet. AY might be part of IAG at some point next decade so that's a bit of a question mark as well.

Baltia!

Surely their next announcement will be flights to HEL... and, in another 27 years, they might actually take off...

Next one might be Lucky Air from China!

Lucky Air plans Kunming - Chengdu - Helsinki route starting in July 2018, will be operated twice weekly by Airbus A330 or Airbus A350.

https://twitter.com/Airlineroute/status/879932373961326593

gregn21 wrote:

A friend who works at the oneworld office told me it is likely Finnair will launch HEL-LAX with the A350 next spring.

That would be cool! Hopefully that will happen.

HELyes wrote:

finnishway wrote:

LupineChemist wrote:

AY is in the TATL JV, it wouldn't be competition. I think it might be likely for them to coordinate an AA flight to an AA hub or to use AA if they want to add capacity on an existing route.

There is no need currently for extra capacity on any existing route. There is no need for two daily flights to JFK. MIA, ORD & SFO are seasonal.

Finnair's CEO believe their next step in Northern-America is to make the seasonal routes year-round. AY CEO interviewed: https://skift.com/2017/06/19/ceo-interv ... se-market/

Thanks to the TATL JV it's always possible AA jumps in, would be cool see them back in HEL.

AA will launch new services from Philadelphia to Europe in S18. It would be cool to see a service from DFW, PHL or LAX. But I am wondering why Iberia, which is a Oneworld member and TATL JV partner of Finnair, does not operate to HEL. Same with CX (OW member).

QuawerAir wrote:

AA will launch new services from Philadelphia to Europe in S18. It would be cool to see a service from DFW, PHL or LAX. But I am wondering why Iberia, which is a Oneworld member and TATL JV partner of Finnair, does not operate to HEL. Same with CX (OW member).

Yeah I think that CX could fit to HEL if even just feed for AY's European network.

HEL-LAX i could see as a route. Maybe not even daily. Lots of One World Connections on both ends! I could see that working out.

The only new long haul airlines I would see flying to Helsinki would be Cathay Pacific and Emirates. For example, Japan Airlines is a oneworld partner which added new flights between NRT & HEL. Cathay Pacific could do the same, and with an growing market and an A350, could be very profitable for them. Emirates global network would make HEL viable I believe.

Would Finnair ever fly to LAX? It seems strange considering they fly to SFO and not LAX.

Also, when did Thai Airways fly to Helsinki, and when did they end it? Thai Airways must have made HEL work for a while, because I would assume lots of Finnish people are going to Thailand.