FlyHappy
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Rumor: Thai Airways (TG) returning to the US

Sun Jun 18, 2017 8:25 pm

I am told in no uncertain terms that TG will be returning to the US market, but that there is no decision yet as to whether it would be to SFO or SEA; neither would be direct, both via ICN.

Considering TG is a Star Alliance member, I cannot fathom how SFO would not be the clear choice. However, that there is any internal discussion at all suggests that there is some reason why SEA is even in the mix...... so , what is the reason? Is it a possible agreement with Alaska Airlines to feed this route? Considering Delta's coming JV with KE, I can't see any other benefit for Thai to fly into SEA, unless Alaska were to help them. Without AS or DL feeding, this route is DOA..... or, am I missing something?
Last edited by qf789 on Mon Jun 19, 2017 12:25 am, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: Updated title
 
TC957
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Re: Thai Airways (TG) returning to the US

Sun Jun 18, 2017 9:00 pm

It a surprise to me TG don't fly to YVR & SFO and code-share with *A partners AC & UA respectively.
And with the B788 & A359 they have the perfect tool for the job.
 
usflyer msp
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Re: Thai Airways (TG) returning to the US

Sun Jun 18, 2017 9:17 pm

TC957 wrote:
It a surprise to me TG don't fly to YVR & SFO and code-share with *A partners AC & UA respectively.
And with the B788 & A359 they have the perfect tool for the job.


Because ULH from BKK is a sure money loser. BKK does not have the premium traffic to make ULH haul work. Flying to the US via ICN is stupid too; what makes them think it is going to work better now than the last two times they tried it? While UA and DL have left the market, competition has generally gotten more intense. TG needs to accept that SE Asian carriers have a poor business case for flights to the US and such traffic is better left funneled to partners.
 
FlyHappy
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Re: Thai Airways (TG) returning to the US

Sun Jun 18, 2017 9:29 pm

usflyer msp wrote:
TC957 wrote:
It a surprise to me TG don't fly to YVR & SFO and code-share with *A partners AC & UA respectively.
And with the B788 & A359 they have the perfect tool for the job.


Because ULH from BKK is a sure money loser. BKK does not have the premium traffic to make ULH haul work. Flying to the US via ICN is stupid too; what makes them think it is going to work better now than the last two times they tried it? While UA and DL have left the market, competition has generally gotten more intense. TG needs to accept that SE Asian carriers have a poor business case for flights to the US and such traffic is better left funneled to partners.


your first sentence is 100% correct, the second mostly true. But the rest you are off base on, from my point of view. What will work better now is that TG will not be flying A340's with 235 seats nonstop to JFK or LAX. Don't forget they were profitably flying 747's to North America before the money losing A340 experiments.
Routing via ICN puts them in competition (depending on US city choice) with the Korean carriers, but that's mostly it.
 
DobboDobbo
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Re: Thai Airways (TG) returning to the US

Sun Jun 18, 2017 9:38 pm

How about a route to JFK via Europe?
 
usflyer msp
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Re: Thai Airways (TG) returning to the US

Sun Jun 18, 2017 9:46 pm

FlyHappy wrote:
usflyer msp wrote:
TC957 wrote:
It a surprise to me TG don't fly to YVR & SFO and code-share with *A partners AC & UA respectively.
And with the B788 & A359 they have the perfect tool for the job.


Because ULH from BKK is a sure money loser. BKK does not have the premium traffic to make ULH haul work. Flying to the US via ICN is stupid too; what makes them think it is going to work better now than the last two times they tried it? While UA and DL have left the market, competition has generally gotten more intense. TG needs to accept that SE Asian carriers have a poor business case for flights to the US and such traffic is better left funneled to partners.


Don't forget they were profitably flying 747's to North America before the money losing A340 experiments.


TG was flying 747's to the US but not not profitably. It has been widely speculated that TG's North American ops never made a cent. BKK is just a crappy hub for North America. TG either has to operate money-bleeding ULH routes to be competitive on duration and stops or have to offer money-losing discounts to draw passengers on 2-stop journeys beyond BKK. Why should I fly TG SFO-ICN-BKK-HKT when I can fly SFO-HKG-HKT on CX or SFO-TPE-HKT on BR or SFO-ICN-HKT on KE for the same price?
 
x1234
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Re: Thai Airways (TG) returning to the US

Sun Jun 18, 2017 9:52 pm

TG needs to launch BKK-SFO non-stop with UA in *A ASAP. Then they can think about LAX. A350 has a little greater range/payload than the 787 and I heard for SFO-SIN west-bound on UA, UA blocks 2 rows of economy seats on every flights due to headwinds to make the flight work...
 
FlyHappy
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Re: Thai Airways (TG) returning to the US

Sun Jun 18, 2017 9:59 pm

usflyer msp wrote:

BKK is just a crappy hub for North America. TG either has to operate money-bleeding ULH routes to be competitive on duration and stops or have to offer money-losing discounts to draw passengers on 2-stop journeys beyond BKK. Why should I fly TG SFO-ICN-BKK-HKT when I can fly SFO-HKG-HKT on CX or SFO-TPE-HKT on BR or SFO-ICN-HKT on KE for the same price?


Nobody, including TG, is trying to get you to HKT most efficiently or otherwise represent Bangkok as a hub. Bangkok is the destination for most.

All that is beside the point. TG is coming back to the US, but I am wondering out loud why SEA is even a consideration unless AS can be effective.
 
NZ321
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Re: Thai Airways (TG) returning to the US

Sun Jun 18, 2017 10:13 pm

You will recall that Thai flew to Seattle before, in the 1980s. Maybe there is a sizeable Thai community there?
 
jetero
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Re: Thai Airways (TG) returning to the US

Sun Jun 18, 2017 10:18 pm

NZ321 wrote:
You will recall that Thai flew to Seattle before, in the 1980s. Maybe there is a sizeable Thai community there?


And on to DFW and YYZ at various times.
 
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mercure1
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Re: Thai Airways (TG) returning to the US

Sun Jun 18, 2017 10:37 pm

Its basically exactly what TG CEO said last year.

Below is thread on topic:

TG CEO: "Never Return To LAX",but Consider YVR/SEA
viewtopic.php?t=607641


For the record Los Angeles has the largest Thai community in the US, but as CEO states in above thread the airline in many decades never ever made money on the route.

Also regarding comments for SFO, I believe TG/UA several years ago ended commercial cooperation. They don't even codeshare at moment I believe.
 
Newbiepilot
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Re: Thai Airways (TG) returning to the US

Sun Jun 18, 2017 10:42 pm

The 787 and A350 have the range to fly nonstop. BKK-YVR/SEA is almost the same distance as HKG-LAX. The new widebodies can easily fly those routes.
 
dcajet
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Re: Thai Airways (TG) returning to the US

Sun Jun 18, 2017 11:01 pm

No Thai airline is allowed to start new service to the US while the country remains under the FAA CAT II list - since Dec 2015. Has that changed?
"Unattended children will be given espresso and a free kitten"
 
MIflyer12
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Re: Thai Airways (TG) returning to the US

Sun Jun 18, 2017 11:03 pm

Newbiepilot wrote:
The 787 and A350 have the range to fly nonstop. BKK-YVR/SEA is almost the same distance as HKG-LAX. The new widebodies can easily fly those routes.


Old widebodies could easily fly SEA-BKK. Look at CO 777ERs EWR-HKG from 2001.

It isn't a question of aircraft having range, it's aircraft in a configuration and average fares + cargo to support ULH flying.

IMHO, one-stop service USA-BKK does nothing for them competitively. There's already well-established one-stop service from multiple U.S. points via NRT, ICN, TPE, PEK and PVG to multiple Thailand airports.
 
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LAXintl
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Re: Thai Airways (TG) returning to the US

Sun Jun 18, 2017 11:36 pm

Restarting US service is nothing but a novelty and based on political desires.
TG never made a penny in the Americas in the 35 years as they tried various routes gateways and wont today either.

There is a reason why both DL and UA also walked away from BKK.

mercure1 wrote:
For the record Los Angeles has the largest Thai community in the US, but as CEO states in above thread the airline in many decades never ever made money on the route.


Indeed LA is by far the largest US O&D market to Thailand, but its one with trashy yields, including in premium cabins also.

mercure1 wrote:
Also regarding comments for SFO, I believe TG/UA several years ago ended commercial cooperation. They don't even codeshare at moment I believe.


UA terminated its TG codeshares back in 2012.

dcajet wrote:
No Thai airline is allowed to start new service to the US while the country remains under the FAA CAT II list - since Dec 2015. Has that changed?


Correct. Thailand still remains downgraded.

Per my visit last month, Thai authorities hope to be ready by August to invite ICAO back. Depending on how that goes the FAA would be invited to do their audit in 2018.
From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
 
usflyer msp
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Re: Thai Airways (TG) returning to the US

Sun Jun 18, 2017 11:46 pm

FlyHappy wrote:
usflyer msp wrote:

BKK is just a crappy hub for North America. TG either has to operate money-bleeding ULH routes to be competitive on duration and stops or have to offer money-losing discounts to draw passengers on 2-stop journeys beyond BKK. Why should I fly TG SFO-ICN-BKK-HKT when I can fly SFO-HKG-HKT on CX or SFO-TPE-HKT on BR or SFO-ICN-HKT on KE for the same price?


Nobody, including TG, is trying to get you to HKT most efficiently or otherwise represent Bangkok as a hub. Bangkok is the destination for most.

All that is beside the point. TG is coming back to the US, but I am wondering out loud why SEA is even a consideration unless AS can be effective.


Still the same problem.

Why should I fly XXX-SFO/SEA-ICN-BKK on TG when I can fly OZ or KE though the same airport and have a much wider range of US gateways. TG will have to offer large discounts to attract traffic.
 
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Re: Thai Airways (TG) returning to the US

Sun Jun 18, 2017 11:51 pm

Thailand in general is a low yielding destination without much business travel. Destinations like Hong Kong and Singapore for example are most likely not low yielding and have a lot of business travel demand.
 
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Re: Thai Airways (TG) returning to the US

Sun Jun 18, 2017 11:54 pm

I would love to see TG in Seattle but don't really see the logic there. It's a delta / Skyteam hub with no huge demand for Asia. YVR would be great too but ultimately I believe LAX is the most logical choice.
It's no secret TG has been eager to return to the US. Perhaps they're speeding up the process as UA and SQ will be flying LAX SIN and also SFO for UA which signals strong demand.
 
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Re: Thai Airways (TG) returning to the US

Sun Jun 18, 2017 11:58 pm

FlyHappy wrote:
usflyer msp wrote:

BKK is just a crappy hub for North America. TG either has to operate money-bleeding ULH routes to be competitive on duration and stops or have to offer money-losing discounts to draw passengers on 2-stop journeys beyond BKK. Why should I fly TG SFO-ICN-BKK-HKT when I can fly SFO-HKG-HKT on CX or SFO-TPE-HKT on BR or SFO-ICN-HKT on KE for the same price?


Nobody, including TG, is trying to get you to HKT most efficiently or otherwise represent Bangkok as a hub. Bangkok is the destination for most.

All that is beside the point. TG is coming back to the US, but I am wondering out loud why SEA is even a consideration unless AS can be effective.


So TG decided that setting fire to cash was just too efficient and they want to fly cash bleeding routes instead?

Let's make one thing clear: TG never made money in North America and unless economic ties between the US and Thailand explode, they will never make money in North America no matter the plane and no matter the destination.

LAX is by far the biggest O&D market and if they can't make it work no other gateway will.
It is what it is...
 
wedgetail737
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Re: Thai Airways (TG) returning to the US

Sun Jun 18, 2017 11:59 pm

FlyHappy wrote:
usflyer msp wrote:

BKK is just a crappy hub for North America. TG either has to operate money-bleeding ULH routes to be competitive on duration and stops or have to offer money-losing discounts to draw passengers on 2-stop journeys beyond BKK. Why should I fly TG SFO-ICN-BKK-HKT when I can fly SFO-HKG-HKT on CX or SFO-TPE-HKT on BR or SFO-ICN-HKT on KE for the same price?


Nobody, including TG, is trying to get you to HKT most efficiently or otherwise represent Bangkok as a hub. Bangkok is the destination for most.

All that is beside the point. TG is coming back to the US, but I am wondering out loud why SEA is even a consideration unless AS can be effective.


Not all airlines serving SEA needs a codeshare partner. China's Hainan Airlines didn't have a connection partner until fairly recently. Asiana has no partner out of SEA and they are competing with KE and DL. NH doesn't have a large partnership out of SEA except for maybe the handful of UA flights. LH has no partner in SEA and they have increased capacity from an A330-300 to a 747-400. Condor had not partnerships at SEA until recently. With DL flying to HKG, why would Xiamen fly to SZN?

TG may not make money but the reasons you present regarding the lack of partnership doesn't hold a whole lot of water. Yes...SEA has a huge SE Asian population, although probably not number 1.

I agree with another here that IF TG decides to fly into SEA, it's purely for clout and politics. Although, I would think they would find an intermediate point that doesn't have so much competition like Osaka Kansai or even TPE.
 
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Re: Thai Airways (TG) returning to the US

Mon Jun 19, 2017 12:04 am

wedgetail737 wrote:
FlyHappy wrote:
usflyer msp wrote:

BKK is just a crappy hub for North America. TG either has to operate money-bleeding ULH routes to be competitive on duration and stops or have to offer money-losing discounts to draw passengers on 2-stop journeys beyond BKK. Why should I fly TG SFO-ICN-BKK-HKT when I can fly SFO-HKG-HKT on CX or SFO-TPE-HKT on BR or SFO-ICN-HKT on KE for the same price?


Nobody, including TG, is trying to get you to HKT most efficiently or otherwise represent Bangkok as a hub. Bangkok is the destination for most.

All that is beside the point. TG is coming back to the US, but I am wondering out loud why SEA is even a consideration unless AS can be effective.


Not all airlines serving SEA needs a codeshare partner. China's Hainan Airlines didn't have a connection partner until fairly recently. Asiana has no partner out of SEA and they are competing with KE and DL. NH doesn't have a large partnership out of SEA except for maybe the handful of UA flights. LH has no partner in SEA and they have increased capacity from an A330-300 to a 747-400. Condor had not partnerships at SEA until recently. With DL flying to HKG, why would Xiamen fly to SZN?

TG may not make money but the reasons you present regarding the lack of partnership doesn't hold a whole lot of water. Yes...SEA has a huge SE Asian population, although probably not number 1.

I agree with another here that IF TG decides to fly into SEA, it's purely for clout and politics. Although, I would think they would find an intermediate point that doesn't have so much competition like Osaka Kansai or even TPE.


Apples to oranges.

SEA to TPE/ICN/PEK are all sizable markets.

SEA-BKK is tiny.

Seattles Southeast Asian community is 5th largest in the US after LA, The Bay Area, Houston, and NYC.
It is what it is...
 
dcajet
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Re: Thai Airways (TG) returning to the US

Mon Jun 19, 2017 12:09 am

NichCage wrote:
Thailand in general is a low yielding destination without much business travel. Destinations like Hong Kong and Singapore for example are most likely not low yielding and have a lot of business travel demand.


The problem with Thailand. from a revenue management strategy perspective, is not so much the lack of business travel - which, admittedly is nowhere near SIN or HKG, but the super abundant, never ending low yielding leisure travel. Which is a boom to the economy but can be a challenge for legacy airlines, such as BA, LH, LX et al.

And speaking of the economy, "teflon" Thailand is not doing bad at all: it just recorded the largest quarterly increase in four years, fueled by agriculture and tourism; this in spite of fears that the now 3 year old military junta in charge would turn the kingdom into the new regional "sick man".

http://www.scmp.com/week-asia/politics/ ... sts-return
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Rajahdhani
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Re: Thai Airways (TG) returning to the US

Mon Jun 19, 2017 12:14 am

LAXintl wrote:
mercure1 wrote:
For the record Los Angeles has the largest Thai community in the US, but as CEO states in above thread the airline in many decades never ever made money on the route.


Indeed LA is by far the largest US O&D market to Thailand, but its one with trashy yields, including in premium cabins also.


Understandably the yields might be difficult, and certainly, based on the routings - SFO presents a better opportunity range-wise. With the termination of the UA codeshare (mentioned below), though - I assume a resumption of said codeshare would be necessary to make SFO more profitable and/or take advantage of the SFO-LAX corridor on UA to add to the profitability. Backing to LAX - would a UA codeshare (and UA's recent aggressiveness in hoping to improve and recapture their standing in LAX) make LAX more palatable on a 787 (which would decrease some of the cost pressures previously associated with the 747)?


LAXintl wrote:
mercure1 wrote:
Also regarding comments for SFO, I believe TG/UA several years ago ended commercial cooperation. They don't even codeshare at moment I believe.


UA terminated its TG codeshares back in 2012.


Not that I expect you to know, but what lead to that happening? What were the underlying causes for the decision. I only hope to understand them better, as I cannot see any TG American services working well without UA's help, or a codeshare partner for that matter. Could AS (the 'codeshare Queen') be of assistance at both SFO (via the VX presence) and SEA?

LAXintl wrote:
dcajet wrote:
No Thai airline is allowed to start new service to the US while the country remains under the FAA CAT II list - since Dec 2015. Has that changed?


Correct. Thailand still remains downgraded.

Per my visit last month, Thai authorities hope to be ready by August to invite ICAO back. Depending on how that goes the FAA would be invited to do their audit in 2018.


How is that going? I ask here, because this is the most pressing issue. Do they seem on track? Or, are there still significant hurdles in their way?

Thank you for your initial insights, and the entire topic fascinates me. Please pardon my ignorance on the matter, and feel free to correct me if necessary.
 
dcajet
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Re: Thai Airways (TG) returning to the US

Mon Jun 19, 2017 12:33 am

Rajahdhani wrote:
How is that going? I ask here, because this is the most pressing issue. Do they seem on track? Or, are there still significant hurdles in their way?

Thank you for your initial insights, and the entire topic fascinates me. Please pardon my ignorance on the matter, and feel free to correct me if necessary.


In case it helps you, this is the original A.net thread on the topic when Thailand was downgraded by the FAA.

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=598895&p=9423031
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as739x
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Re: Thai Airways (TG) returning to the US

Mon Jun 19, 2017 1:01 am

x1234 wrote:
TG needs to launch BKK-SFO non-stop with UA in *A ASAP. Then they can think about LAX. A350 has a little greater range/payload than the 787 and I heard for SFO-SIN west-bound on UA, UA blocks 2 rows of economy seats on every flights due to headwinds to make the flight work...


You've heard incorrectly
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Rajahdhani
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Re: Thai Airways (TG) returning to the US

Mon Jun 19, 2017 1:07 am

dcajet wrote:
Rajahdhani wrote:
How is that going? I ask here, because this is the most pressing issue. Do they seem on track? Or, are there still significant hurdles in their way?

Thank you for your initial insights, and the entire topic fascinates me. Please pardon my ignorance on the matter, and feel free to correct me if necessary.


In case it helps you, this is the original A.net thread on the topic when Thailand was downgraded by the FAA.

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=598895&p=9423031


Thank you very much! I'll have some reading to do!
 
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atcsundevil
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Re: Rumor: Thai Airways (TG) returning to the US

Mon Jun 19, 2017 2:27 am

Yeah, this rumor is nothing but hopes and dreams until their FAA Cat I status is restored. There's really no point in them planning a potential route until they can pass the audit.
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FlyHappy
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Re: Rumor: Thai Airways (TG) returning to the US

Mon Jun 19, 2017 3:25 am

A.net truly does fascinate me.
So many detailed answers to questions I did not ask ;)

TG will have Cat I status restored - they've had it before and will have it again. They are in revenue projection mode, and its between SFO and SEA (either via ICN). I know this to be factual as it comes to me from a blood relative well placed in administration; so that's what underpins my certainly (everyone else can feel free to dismiss).

I don't care what trashy yields, lack of business traffic, 2 stop possibilities, blah,blah,blah - I just don't know what their attraction to SEA is, I can only guess at AS, and thought I'd throw it out here for smart people to speculate on.

some of y'all...... *sheesh*........
 
LAXdude1023
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Re: Rumor: Thai Airways (TG) returning to the US

Mon Jun 19, 2017 3:53 am

FlyHappy wrote:
A.net truly does fascinate me.
So many detailed answers to questions I did not ask ;)

TG will have Cat I status restored - they've had it before and will have it again. They are in revenue projection mode, and its between SFO and SEA (either via ICN). I know this to be factual as it comes to me from a blood relative well placed in administration; so that's what underpins my certainly (everyone else can feel free to dismiss).

I don't care what trashy yields, lack of business traffic, 2 stop possibilities, blah,blah,blah - I just don't know what their attraction to SEA is, I can only guess at AS, and thought I'd throw it out here for smart people to speculate on.

some of y'all...... *sheesh*........


What you're posting doesn't is either a fantasy or an idea from someone who has no clue how to run a profitable airline.
It is what it is...
 
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TWA772LR
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Re: Rumor: Thai Airways (TG) returning to the US

Mon Jun 19, 2017 4:31 am

Thai Airways can do BKK-SEA/YVR/SFO n/s with the 788. AM flies PVG-MEX with the 788 and it's longer than all 3 of those routes. The reason why Thai may be revisiting North America flights is that now they have an aircraft that can do it at around half the cost of an A340. Also SFO, SEA, and YVR are all closer to BKK than LAX and JFK, meaning someone in their planning department is being rational about this.

***DISCLAIMER*** This is purely from an operational/aircraft performance standpoint. Whether or not it makes business sense to restart their North America operation is another question; although you do have to admit NA service would stand a better chance today than it did then with oil prices being low and newer aircraft.

Take a look at the gc map (PVG-MEX, and BKK-LAX/JFK added to compare/contrast thier capabilities today and yesteryear):
http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?P=bkk-sea,+b ... x,+bkk-jfk




And selfishly I'd love to see them in IAH (yes, I know it will never happen) because I love their livery! Purple is my favorite color!
"It's not getting to the land of the nonrev that's the problem, it's getting back." ~~Captain Hector Barbossa
 
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Re: Rumor: Thai Airways (TG) returning to the US

Mon Jun 19, 2017 5:46 am

VCEflyboy wrote:
It's no secret TG has been eager to return to the US. Perhaps they're speeding up the process as UA and SQ will be flying LAX SIN and also SFO for UA which signals strong demand.

What does any of that have to do with TG/BKK though? Geographically, going to Thailand via SIN is about the *worst* routing anyone from the Americas could take... HKG/TPE/NRT/ICN are all much more efficient, in terms of distance; and offer more frequency.

Not to say people don't. Just that I doubt having nonstops to SIN is going to spike any demand that wasn't there before, to Thailand.


FlyHappy wrote:
A.net truly does fascinate me.
So many detailed answers to questions I did not ask

In the event you weren't aware: we have no obligation to focus solely on issues that you want to see discussed, in this thread or otherwise. :)


TWA772LR wrote:
now they have an aircraft that can do it at around half the cost of an A340.

Might want to dial back on the exaggeration a bit: 787s and A350s are made out of plastic, not magic.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
WPvsMW
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Re: Rumor: Thai Airways (TG) returning to the US

Mon Jun 19, 2017 6:55 am

"...plastic, not magic." :lol: :lol: :lol:
 
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RL777
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Re: Rumor: Thai Airways (TG) returning to the US

Mon Jun 19, 2017 7:03 am

Doubtful, unless the FAA make some changes to their status any potential moves. Even with smaller more efficient aircraft I have a difficult time seeing any markets that would warrant new service.
 
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Rajahdhani
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Re: Rumor: Thai Airways (TG) returning to the US

Mon Jun 19, 2017 7:19 am

Off the wall thinking, I admit - but, could Thai Smile operate a 787?

I mean, meet AS at SEA, and WS at YVR - and tackle the low yields with Thai "Smile" crews. Hell, LH does it with "Cityline" services - could TG not take a page from that book (and the added benefit of 'odd' codeshares?) SQ does well with TZ's 787s.
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: Rumor: Thai Airways (TG) returning to the US

Mon Jun 19, 2017 7:52 am

Rajahdhani wrote:
Off the wall thinking, I admit - but, could Thai Smile operate a 787?

I mean, meet AS at SEA, and WS at YVR - and tackle the low yields with Thai "Smile" crews. Hell, LH does it with "Cityline" services - could TG not take a page from that book (and the added benefit of 'odd' codeshares?) SQ does well with TZ's 787s.

Low crew costs are only part of the equation though... the other thing that LH's Jump/Cityline does is pack 'em to the gills.

And that might not work on 7400mi routes like SEA and YVR to BKK
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
wenders825
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Joined: Thu Sep 29, 2016 7:29 pm

Re: Rumor: Thai Airways (TG) returning to the US

Mon Jun 19, 2017 8:09 am

might be off topic but

how does TG make so much money on Euro routes up front? is there more business demand than the US (I assume yes) or is it the fact that BKK can be a more logical connecting point to Australia, SIN, etc?
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: Rumor: Thai Airways (TG) returning to the US

Mon Jun 19, 2017 8:11 am

wenders825 wrote:
how does TG make so much money on Euro routes up front?

First things first: why are you of the thought that they're making much of any money on Europe specifically? Source?
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
wenders825
Posts: 241
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Re: Rumor: Thai Airways (TG) returning to the US

Mon Jun 19, 2017 8:18 am

LAX772LR wrote:
wenders825 wrote:
how does TG make so much money on Euro routes up front?

First things first: why are you of the thought that they're making much of any money on Europe specifically? Source?

the fact that they serve more than 10 European routes on a daily basis with wide body aircraft I'd assume would indicate they're somehow doing okay for themselves
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: Rumor: Thai Airways (TG) returning to the US

Mon Jun 19, 2017 8:59 am

wenders825 wrote:
the fact that they serve more than 10 European routes on a daily basis with wide body aircraft I'd assume would indicate they're somehow doing okay for themselves

That's a pretty poor assumption for an airline that once self-admitted that nearly none of its longhaul routes are profitable.

There was a Center for Aviation/CAPA article from 2015 showing that in just the last three years, European traffic to Bangkok is up, yet TG's percentage of that traffic is down. In just the last three years, they've axed MAD and MOW, discontinued public plans to open DUS, all while trimming aircraft size to nearly every destination except LHR and FRA..... as, again, European traffic into Thailand actually rose.

While that of course doesn't speak to specific profits/losses on any given route; it doesn't paint a picture of Europe being a place where they're making some ton of money either.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
PayaLebar
Posts: 36
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Re: Thai Airways (TG) returning to the US

Mon Jun 19, 2017 9:32 am

jetero wrote:
NZ321 wrote:
You will recall that Thai flew to Seattle before, in the 1980s. Maybe there is a sizeable Thai community there?


And on to DFW and YYZ at various times.


In 1988, I did KUL-BKK-NRT-SEA-DFW-SEA-NRT-TPE-BKK-KUL on TG. The extra stop on the return leg was a Tech Stop. Can't remember if the Tech Stop was in NRT or TPE but the service was impeccable on all sectors.
 
DobboDobbo
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Re: Rumor: Thai Airways (TG) returning to the US

Mon Jun 19, 2017 10:48 am

The largest unserved route to Europe from BKK is to MAN. TG appeared to be gearing up for a launch several months back (promoting and sponsoring events in Manchester) but have recently gone quiet.

Approximately 135,000 passengers travelled this route one stop, almost 80% of which was with the MEB3. This equates to 184 passengers per day each way. As ever with Thailand, yield is the main barrier to a direct service and it would need to grab a slice of the huge kangaroo market from MAN to make ends meet (or use it as a transit stop to the east coast USA).

http://www.anna.aero/2017/01/24/europe-thailand-trends/
 
wedgetail737
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Re: Rumor: Thai Airways (TG) returning to the US

Mon Jun 19, 2017 1:10 pm

FlyHappy wrote:
A.net truly does fascinate me.
So many detailed answers to questions I did not ask ;)

TG will have Cat I status restored - they've had it before and will have it again. They are in revenue projection mode, and its between SFO and SEA (either via ICN). I know this to be factual as it comes to me from a blood relative well placed in administration; so that's what underpins my certainly (everyone else can feel free to dismiss).

I don't care what trashy yields, lack of business traffic, 2 stop possibilities, blah,blah,blah - I just don't know what their attraction to SEA is, I can only guess at AS, and thought I'd throw it out here for smart people to speculate on.

some of y'all...... *sheesh*........


I think TG is looking to Seattle because of (1) they have history there with continuing flights to DFW and YYZ; (2) Not nearly as much competition as LAX/SFO and maybe SFO; (3) Yields might be a little higher than SFO/LAX because of (2). Just my thoughts. But I do hope to see TG in SEA at some point.
 
hohd
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Re: Rumor: Thai Airways (TG) returning to the US

Mon Jun 19, 2017 1:41 pm

Their only shot at break even or small profit is: Use 787; fly under Thai Smile; fly to LAX, which has the largest O & D; codeshare with every one at LAX including AS, UA even DL or AA and on a lesser scale offer connecting traffic to secondary cities in India/Pakistan (especially Pakistan, it is the only SE Asian carrier to fly to Pakistan) Surprisingly quite a few might be tempted to go via BKK for a nice vacation stopover on the way to other countries.
 
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mercure1
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Re: Rumor: Thai Airways (TG) returning to the US

Mon Jun 19, 2017 2:37 pm

wenders825 wrote:
how does TG make so much money on Euro routes up front? is there more business demand than the US (I assume yes) or is it the fact that BKK can be a more logical connecting point to Australia, SIN, etc?


They dont.

TG is well known as heavy discounter in premium cabins here in Europe. Some routes like Stockholm the business cabin is even sold as economy class capacity.

Also lets not forget TG has been largely a loss making enterprise for the last many years, and has had to revert to selling aircraft, facilities, offices etc to cover its operating deficit.
 
lawair
Posts: 181
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Re: Rumor: Thai Airways (TG) returning to the US

Mon Jun 19, 2017 3:02 pm

LAX772LR wrote:
wenders825 wrote:
the fact that they serve more than 10 European routes on a daily basis with wide body aircraft I'd assume would indicate they're somehow doing okay for themselves

That's a pretty poor assumption for an airline that once self-admitted that nearly none of its longhaul routes are profitable.

There was a Center for Aviation/CAPA article from 2015 showing that in just the last three years, European traffic to Bangkok is up, yet TG's percentage of that traffic is down. In just the last three years, they've axed MAD and MOW, discontinued public plans to open DUS, all while trimming aircraft size to nearly every destination except LHR and FRA..... as, again, European traffic into Thailand actually rose.

While that of course doesn't speak to specific profits/losses on any given route; it doesn't paint a picture of Europe being a place where they're making some ton of money either.


Not sure where you heard that its longhaul routes are not profitable. I know Air India seems to have admitted that somewhere, but I don't recall that from TG. The evidence suggests that TG's trunk and Scandinavian European routes are profitable, and are actually improved over the past couple years. There is some corporate traffic that flies these routes, but nothing compared to Thailand-North Asia, which I believe are some of TG's more profitable routes. TG was profitable last year and during the first quarter of this year...I have to guess it was not because of its regional routes, which face extremely heavy competition. TG has expanded capacity on various routes, and added more FRA/CPH/ARN-HKT flights over the years. BRU and OSL have also been apparently successful over the past few years since their inception. DME was cut but has since been restored. MAD and ATH were cut this past decade, but those are the only two that have not been brought back. Arguably the MOW/MAD/ATH cuts had more to do with those countries' respective situations rather than TG.

However, it is true that TG's yields having been lower year after year, and they have consistently lost market share on Thailand-Europe routes. But because Thailand-Europe traffic is up so dramatically, TG's passenger numbers are actually up between Thailand-Europe, just not its market share. While TG typically is profitable in the 1st and 4th quarters, it tends to lose money during the 2nd and 3rd quarters. Typically 1Q and 4Q profits are enough to make the year profitable, but some cost and exchange rate volatility is making that uncertain. The carrier used to be a consistently profitable airline until 2008, and a significant portion of that was from European flying.
Last edited by lawair on Mon Jun 19, 2017 3:07 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
blrsea
Posts: 1613
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Re: Rumor: Thai Airways (TG) returning to the US

Mon Jun 19, 2017 3:05 pm

I know people who used to fly from India to US West Coast thru TG long time back. SEA has a good sized Indian population now. If they launch a non-stop BKK-SEA flight with 787/350, they might be able to get some Indian connecting passengers too, provided the connections are good.
 
dcajet
Posts: 1512
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Re: Rumor: Thai Airways (TG) returning to the US

Mon Jun 19, 2017 3:28 pm

FlyHappy wrote:
TG will have Cat I status restored - they've had it before and will have it again. They are in revenue projection mode, and its between SFO and SEA (either via ICN). I know this to be factual as it comes to me from a blood relative well placed in administration; so that's what underpins my certainly (everyone else can feel free to dismiss).


Actually, TG has nothing to do with restoring CAT 1 to Thailand and no power to do so. This is a matter relating to Thailand as a nation and the way it regulates and monitors/supervises its airline industry. Until Thailand and the FAA come to an agreement on the matter, no matter how revenue hungry TG may be, it just won't happen.
"Unattended children will be given espresso and a free kitten"
 
SonaSounds
Posts: 54
Joined: Mon Jan 09, 2017 7:16 pm

Re: Rumor: Thai Airways (TG) returning to the US

Mon Jun 19, 2017 8:28 pm

atcsundevil wrote:
Yeah, this rumor is nothing but hopes and dreams until their FAA Cat I status is restored. There's really no point in them planning a potential route until they can pass the audit.


Working in the industry, when a country is category II and hasn't made it's way to category I that just means they are not wanting to fly to the USA yet. If the airline wants to fly to the USA, the category II to category I change happens pretty quickly. When there's a will there's a way. No point in going through the process to upgrade if you do not plan on flying to the USA right?

Plus it is an easy cop-out for the airline when asked why they don't serve the USA.
 
Nimish
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Re: Rumor: Thai Airways (TG) returning to the US

Mon Jun 19, 2017 11:54 pm

blrsea wrote:
I know people who used to fly from India to US West Coast thru TG long time back

I've done that many times over many years - I used to love those flights - BLR-BKK-KIX-LAX-SFO - what a blast! All the while enjoying the lounges at all the airports along the way, courtesy Air Canada's 35K to *G on Aeroplan, without flying a single sector on AC...

On the return there was a 20 hour layover in BKK - hence STPC, hence party in BKK at TG's expense. I miss those days - the BLR-FRA/HKG/LHR/CDG/AMS/DXB/AUH/DEL-SFO routing is nowhere as much fun :(

Eventually switched to the non-stop A345 on BKK-LAX - with the super comfortable seating - and I think I once flew a A346 non-stop on that sector too (though I might be dreaming now). The STPC though - still continued :).
Incredible India!
 
uwskier25
Posts: 1
Joined: Mon Aug 14, 2017 7:18 pm

Re: Rumor: Thai Airways (TG) returning to the US

Mon Aug 14, 2017 7:31 pm

Glad I found this thread. I've been following this since the BKK Post reported about it more than a year ago, only to hear nothing since. Live in Seattle and my family visits Thailand usually once yearly, typically with a built-in layover in ICN to rest up. Taking a hiatus this year due to the birth of my son, but going again next year. Wouldn't mind direct!

Would love to see them come to SEA and partner with AS (in the past I've used KE, and once used DL during their last year in BKK). I know the economics are debatable, as covered well above, but a guy can dream, right?

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