FAQ

WHAT IS THIS REPORT?
This compares departures for sale THIS WEEK for the stated period versus what was for sale LAST WEEK...It does NOT compare to last year or now (UNLESS OTHERWISE STATED).

THE SCHEDULES SHOWN HERE CHANGE AFTER YOU POST???
-To improve is to change; to be perfect is to change often---Winston Churchill. This is data the carriers filed at the point in time it was captured. It's changed since then. You are just going to have to live with it.

HOW DO I READ IT?
XXX-YYY DEC 4>5 JAN 4>5 ; means that the listed airline changed the frequency between the two airports to add from 4 to 5 roundtrips in December and January. No other months were changed. I only list one direction, although it is possible the listed change is only one way. It is too difficult to average the two directions. I assume the change is roundtrip and that is most often the case.

WHERE ARE SEATS SHOWN?
They aren't. This only shows departures.

HOW ARE THE DAILY DEPARTURES CALCULATED?
This report uses total operations for the month listed, divided over the days in the month.

WHAT ARE THE FRACTIONAL FLIGHTS?
Flights that do not operate every day of the month create fractional service. In most cases flights are rounded, but in the case of international service or markets with low frequency, fractions are shown. For example, if a flight operates 4 times in April it will show 4/30=0.133=0.1. Also , a flight that only operates once per week may vary between 0.1 and 0.2 because a weekday may repeat either 4 or 5 times depending on the month.

WHAT ABOUT CARRIERS THAT DON'T PUBLISH A SCHEDULE 9 MONTHS IN ADVANCE?
Most airlines publish schedules 11 months in advance. This report covers the next 9 months. That avoids seeing schedules as they are loaded. Several LCCs load their schedules less than 9 months into the future. I remove the schedule adds if I see them and show a year over year (YOY) comparison if I notice them.

THOSE FLIGHTS AREN'T DELTA, THEY ARE SKYWEST
This report only shows the marketing code. It is too complicated to show all the operators.

THE FREQUENCIES MAY HAVE CHANGED AS YOU SHOW, BUT THE SEATS DIDNT CHANGE BECAUSE OF EQUIPMENT SWAPS
That is a natural weakness of a frequency based report, but it provides something to discuss below.

THIS LOOKS LIKE AN ERROR?
The carriers file the schedules. They do make mistakes. Most of the mistakes I have seen are either related to code shares not being marked as "duplicates" or carriers filing flights with invalid data such as equipment codes that are not standard. This causes flights to not appear.

CHARTERS?
Lately charters have been showing up in the database. I have no idea if that will continue.

I marked some of the ones I thought were interesting with an "*".

9X DUJ-PIT JUL 3>4 AUG 3>4 SEP 3>4 OCT 3>4 NOV 3>4 DEC 3>4

AA BOS-LGA SEP 12>11
AA CLT-BGI OCT 0.1>0
AA DFW-CDG FEB 0.8>1.0
AA DFW-FRA JAN 0.8>1.0
AA JFK-BCN JAN 0.7>1.0 FEB 0.8>1.0
AA JFK-MXP DEC 0.8>1.0
AA JFK-SFO OCT 7>5 NOV 7>5 DEC 7>6
AA LAX-PVG DEC 0.9>1.0
AA LAX-SYD NOV 0.8>1.0
AA LGA-MYR SEP 0.1>0.0
AA MIA-CDG NOV 0.8>0.9
AA MIA-ZSA JUL 0.2>0.3
AA ORD-CDG DEC 0.7>1.0
AA ORD-NRT JAN 0.8>1.0 FEB 0.8>1.0
AA ORD-PBI AUG 1.6>1.0
AA ORD-RSW AUG 3>1.7
AA PHL-AMS DEC 0.8>1.0
AA PHL-BGR OCT 4>5 NOV 4>5
AA PHL-BOS NOV 11>10
AA PHL-BTV OCT 6>5 NOV 6>4
AA PHL-CHS OCT 3>4 NOV 3>4
AA PHL-DEN NOV 3>2
AA PHL-FLL NOV 4>3
AA PHL-IAH OCT 3>2 NOV 3>2
AA PHL-MSP NOV 4>3
AA PHL-MSY OCT 2>3 NOV 2>3
AA PHL-MUC NOV 0.7>0.9
AA PHL-RDU NOV 8>7
AA PHL-SAN OCT 3>2 NOV 3>2
This is a great example of how the AA, formerly US, schedule philosophy really oversells capacity sometimes. This route is flat YOY, but they were selling 4x capacity.
AA PHL-SEA OCT 4>1.1 NOV 4>1.0 DEC 4>3
AA PHL-SFO NOV 5>4
AA PHX-BUR AUG 4>3

AC OGG-YYC DEC 0.6>0.4 JAN 0.6>0.4

AF JFK-ORY JAN 1.0>0.5 FEB 1.0>0.9

*AM ATL-BJX SEP 0>1.0 OCT 0>2 NOV 0>2 DEC 0>2 JAN 0>2 FEB 0>2
*AM ATL-GDL DEC 0>1.0 JAN 0>1.0 FEB 0>1.0
*AM ATL-MID DEC 0>1.0 JAN 0>1.0 FEB 0>1.0
*AM ATL-MTY NOV 0>1.0 DEC 0>1.0 JAN 0>1.0 FEB 0>1.0
*AM ATL-QRO NOV 0>1.0 DEC 0>1.0 JAN 0>1.0 FEB 0>1.0
*AM LAX-BJX OCT 0>1.0 NOV 0>1.0 DEC 0>1.0 JAN 0>1.0 FEB 0>1.0
*AM PDX-MEX DEC 0>1.0 JAN 0>1.0 FEB 0>1.0
*AM SEA-MEX NOV 0>1.0 DEC 0>1.0 JAN 0>1.0 FEB 0>1.0

AS ANC-LAX DEC 1.5>1.0
AS ANC-PHX DEC 0.7>0.5
AS PDX-DFW FEB 2>1.1
AS SAN-SLC NOV 1.9>1.4
AS SEA-MSP FEB 2>3

It was not for sale beyond OCT, so it is gone. Appears to be off their site, replaced by a flight via PEK.
*CA LAX-SZX JUL 0.4>0 AUG 0.4>0 SEP 0.4>0 OCT 0.4>0

CI LAX-TPE DEC 2>1.9 JAN 2>1.8

*D8 SWF-BGO NOV 0>0.3 DEC 0>0.3 FEB 0>0.3
*D8 SWF-DUB NOV 0.4>0.9 DEC 0.4>0.8 JAN 0.4>0.9 FEB 0.4>0.9

DL ATL-CDG FEB 1.7>1.6
DL ATL-CHO JAN 4>5
DL ATL-CRW JAN 4>5
DL ATL-MAD FEB 0.6>0.5
DL ATL-OAJ JAN 3>4
DL HNL-KIX JUL 1.2>1.0 AUG 1.5>1.3
DL HNL-NRT JUL 2>1.8 SEP 1.8>1.5
DL MSP-SAT JAN 1.9>3 FEB 1.9>3
DL SEA-ANC OCT 3>4 NOV 3>4
DL SEA-DEN SEP 4>5
DL SEA-GEG DEC 7>8 JAN 6>8 FEB 6>8
DL SEA-LAX OCT 10>9 NOV 10>9
DL SEA-PDX SEP 6>7 OCT 6>8 NOV 6>8 DEC 6>8 JAN 6>8 FEB 6>8
DL SEA-PHX NOV 3>4
DL SEA-SFO NOV 6>7 DEC 6>7 JAN 6>7 FEB 6>7
DL SEA-SJC SEP 4>5 OCT 4>5 NOV 4>5 DEC 4>5
Resumes MAR2018
*DL SLC-LHR NOV 0.6>0 DEC 0.5>0 JAN 0.6>0 FEB 0.6>0

EI MIA-DUB NOV 0.4>0.9 DEC 0.4>0.8 JAN 0.4>0.8 FEB 0.4>0.9

F9 DEN-PVD SEP 0>1.0 OCT 0>1.0
F9 ISP-MCO SEP 0>1.0 OCT 0>1.0
F9 LAS-MIA SEP 0>1.0 OCT 0>1.0
F9 LAS-RDU SEP 0>1.0 OCT 0>1.0
F9 MCO-PVD SEP 0>1.0 OCT 0>1.0

*G4 FAR-IWA JUL 0>0.4 AUG 0>0.4 SEP 0>0.3 OCT 0>0.5

*HU LAX-CKG NOV 0>0.3 DEC 0>0.3 JAN 0>0.3 FEB 0>0.3
*HU LAX-CTU NOV 0>0.3 DEC 0>0.3 JAN 0>0.3 FEB 0>0.3

*HY JFK-TAS NOV 0>0.1 DEC 0>0.2 JAN 0>0.1 FEB 0>0.1

*J1 ALB-PIT JUL 0>1.4 AUG 0>1.5 SEP 0>1.4
J1 MKE-PIT JUL 0.7>1.4 AUG 0.7>1.5 SEP 0.7>1.4

*JL KOA-NRT SEP 0>0.5 OCT 0>1.0 NOV 0>1.0 DEC 0>1.0 JAN 0>1.0 FEB 0>1.0

*NK BWI-CUN NOV 0>0.7 DEC 0>0.8 JAN 0>1.0 FEB 0>0.5
NK FLL-PTY JAN 0.7>0.8
NK FLL-STI DEC 0.3>0.5 JAN 0.3>0.5 FEB 0.1>0.3
*NK ORD-CUN NOV 0>0.7 DEC 0>0.8 JAN 0>1.0 FEB 0>0.5

*OR MIA-AMS NOV 0>0.3 DEC 0>0.3 JAN 0>0.3 FEB 0>0.3

UA BOS-CLE OCT 3>4
UA CLE-MCO SEP 1.0>0.6 OCT 1.0>0.6
UA EWR-CLE OCT 5>6
UA EWR-SNN NOV 0.8>0.9
UA EWR-ZRH FEB 0.8>0.9
UA IAD-AMS NOV 0.7>0.8
UA IAD-AUS JUL 3>2.0
UA IAD-DUB NOV 0.6>0.7
UA IAD-FRA NOV 1.8>1.9 DEC 1.8>1.9
UA IAD-GRU DEC 0.8>0.9
UA IAD-PVD JUL 4>3
UA IAD-ROA JUL 3>1.9
UA IAD-ZRH NOV 0.7>0.9 DEC 0.6>0.9
UA IAH-AMS NOV 0.9>1.0
UA IAH-CZM NOV 0.6>0.4 DEC 0.8>0.5 JAN 0.7>0.5 FEB 0.6>0.3
UA IAH-LHR NOV 1.9>2
UA IAH-MCO SEP 6>5
UA IAH-PVR NOV 2>3
UA IAH-TUS SEP 3>2
UA LAX-LHR NOV 0.8>1.0
UA ORD-BOS JAN 9>8
UA ORD-BUF JAN 5>4
UA ORD-FRA DEC 1.7>2.0
UA ORD-LAS SEP 6>5
UA ORD-LAX JAN 13>12
UA ORD-LGA SEP 16>15
UA ORD-MUC NOV 0.7>0.9
UA ORD-PVR NOV 0.7>1.1 DEC 1.2>1.5
UA SFO-FLL SEP 0.2>1.0 JAN 0.5>2 FEB 0>2
UA SFO-IAD OCT 10>11
UA SFO-LAX OCT 14>15
UA SFO-LHR NOV 1.8>2
UA SFO-MFR OCT 4>5
UA SFO-ORD JAN 16>15
UA SFO-RDM OCT 3>4
UA SFO-RNO SEP 5>4
UA SFO-SAN OCT 9>10
UA SFO-SLC SEP 6>5
UA SFO-YVR OCT 4>5

Y4 AUS-GDL SEP 0.6>0.3 OCT 0.5>0.3 NOV 0.6>0.3 DEC 0.6>0.3 JAN 0.6>0.3 FEB 0.6>0.3
Y4 JFK-GDL SEP 1.0>0.6 OCT 1.0>0.6 NOV 1.0>0.5 DEC 1.0>0.6 JAN 1.0>0.6 FEB 1.0>0.6
Y4 JFK-MEX SEP 1.0>2 OCT 1.0>2 NOV 1.0>2 DEC 1.0>2 JAN 1.0>2 FEB 1.0>2
Y4 LAS-MEX SEP 1.0>0.7 OCT 1.0>0.7 NOV 1.0>0.7 DEC 1.0>0.7 JAN 1.0>0.7 FEB 1.0>0.7
Y4 LAX-AGU SEP 0.7>0.6 OCT 0.7>0.5 NOV 0.7>0.6 DEC 0.7>0.6 JAN 0.7>0.6 FEB 0.7>0.6
Y4 LAX-BJX SEP 1.0>0.7 OCT 1.0>0.7 NOV 1.0>0.7 DEC 1.0>0.7 JAN 1.0>0.7 FEB 1.0>0.7
Y4 LAX-GDL SEP 4>3 OCT 4>3 NOV 4>3 DEC 4>3 JAN 4>3 FEB 4>3
Y4 LAX-MEX SEP 2>3 OCT 2>3 NOV 3>4 DEC 2>3 JAN 2>3 FEB 2>3
Y4 LAX-MLM SEP 1.0>0.9 OCT 1.0>0.9 NOV 1.0>0.8 DEC 1.0>0.9 JAN 1.0>0.8 FEB 1.0>0.9
*Y4 LAX-OAX SEP 0>0.3 OCT 0>0.3 NOV 0>0.3 DEC 0>0.3 JAN 0>0.3 FEB 0>0.3
*Y4 LAX-QRO SEP 0>0.3 OCT 0>0.3 NOV 0>0.3 DEC 0>0.3 JAN 0>0.3 FEB 0>0.3
Y4 LAX-ZCL SEP 0.8>0.7 OCT 0.9>0.7 NOV 0.9>0.7 DEC 0.8>0.7 JAN 0.9>0.7 FEB 0.9>0.7
Y4 MDW-BJX SEP 0.9>0.6 OCT 0.8>0.5 NOV 0.9>0.6 DEC 0.9>0.5 JAN 0.8>0.6 FEB 0.9>0.6
*Y4 MDW-QRO SEP 0>0.3 OCT 0>0.3 NOV 0>0.3 DEC 0>0.3 JAN 0>0.3 FEB 0>0.3
Y4 MDW-ZCL SEP 0.8>0.6 OCT 0.9>0.6 NOV 0.9>0.6 DEC 0.8>0.6 JAN 0.9>0.5 FEB 0.9>0.6
Y4 MIA-MEX SEP 1.0>0.6 OCT 1.0>0.6 NOV 1.0>0.6 DEC 1.0>0.6 JAN 1.0>0.5 FEB 1.0>0.6
*Y4 ONT-BJX SEP 0>0.3 OCT 0>0.3 NOV 0>0.3 DEC 0>0.3 JAN 0>0.3 FEB 0>0.3
Y4 ORD-GDL SEP 1.0>0.4 OCT 1.0>0.4 NOV 1.0>0.4 DEC 1.0>0.5 JAN 1.0>0.4 FEB 1.0>0.4
*Y4 ORD-HUX DEC 0>0.2 JAN 0>0.1 FEB 0>0.1
Y4 ORD-MEX SEP 2>1.4 OCT 1.9>1.4 NOV 1.6>1.3 DEC 1.5>1.1 JAN 1.6>1.2 FEB 1.6>1.1
Y4 ORD-MTY SEP 0.4>0.3 OCT 0.4>0.3 NOV 0.4>0.3 DEC 0.4>0.3 JAN 0.5>0.3 FEB 0.4>0.3
*Y4 ORD-ZIH DEC 0>0.2 JAN 0>0.1 FEB 0>0.1
Y4 PDX-GDL SEP 0.4>0.6 OCT 0.4>0.5 NOV 0.4>0.6 DEC 0.4>0.6 JAN 0.5>0.6 FEB 0.4>0.6
Y4 PHX-CUL SEP 0.4>0.3 OCT 0.4>0.3 NOV 0.4>0.3 DEC 0.4>0.3 JAN 0.4>0.3 FEB 0.4>0.3
*Y4 SAT-MEX SEP 0>0.5 OCT 0>1.0 NOV 0>1.0 DEC 0>1.0 JAN 0>1.0 FEB 0>1.0
*Y4 SBD-GDL SEP 0>0.3 OCT 0>0.3 NOV 0>0.3 DEC 0>0.3 JAN 0>0.3 FEB 0>0.3
Y4 SFO-GDL SEP 1.0>0.7 OCT 1.0>0.7 NOV 1.0>0.7 DEC 1.0>0.7 JAN 1.0>0.7 FEB 1.0>0.7
Y4 SFO-MEX SEP 1.0>0.7 OCT 1.0>0.7 NOV 1.0>0.7 DEC 1.0>0.7 JAN 1.0>0.7 FEB 1.0>0.7

enilria wrote:

*DL SLC-LHR NOV 0.6>0 DEC 0.5>0 JAN 0.6>0 FEB 0.6>0

Unfortunately this was not surprising, SLC-LHR has had terrible load factors, I am surprised it lasted year-round this long. Here are the loads from November 2016 on DL to LHR:

City, Seats, Load
ATL, 13919, 78%
JFK, 17225, 73%
MSP, 5876, 73%
DTW, 5459, 56%
BOS, 5690, 55%
SEA, 5878, 52%
SLC, 3569, 45%
PHL, 4592, 35%

cvgComair wrote:

enilria wrote:

*DL SLC-LHR NOV 0.6>0 DEC 0.5>0 JAN 0.6>0 FEB 0.6>0

Unfortunately this was not surprising, SLC-LHR has had terrible load factors, I am surprised it lasted year-round this long. Here are the loads from November 2016 on DL to LHR:

City, Seats, Load
ATL, 13919, 78%
JFK, 17225, 73%
MSP, 5876, 73%
DTW, 5459, 56%
BOS, 5690, 55%
SEA, 5878, 52%
SLC, 3569, 45%
PHL, 4592, 35%

Most of those are surprisingly bad

enilria wrote:

cvgComair wrote:

enilria wrote:

*DL SLC-LHR NOV 0.6>0 DEC 0.5>0 JAN 0.6>0 FEB 0.6>0

Unfortunately this was not surprising, SLC-LHR has had terrible load factors, I am surprised it lasted year-round this long. Here are the loads from November 2016 on DL to LHR:

City, Seats, Load
ATL, 13919, 78%
JFK, 17225, 73%
MSP, 5876, 73%
DTW, 5459, 56%
BOS, 5690, 55%
SEA, 5878, 52%
SLC, 3569, 45%
PHL, 4592, 35%

Most of those are surprisingly bad

What I've been seeing lately is flights like PHL, SLC, BOS, and DTW are priced higher. With ATL and JFK already more than likely in the 50s/low 60 with LF from O&D, they need flow so they take from other hubs to protect those flights. It could cost me about $500 less sometimes to go to LON via JFK or ATL by DL or from DL atl VS. I really think BA could possibly enter DTW, too many business ties between both regions and more connections to Western Europe that someone won't have to do via CDG or AMS as discussed in the other thread. I'm not sure what the situation is with PHL air SLC though, I don't know the PDEW and I don't know if they have bus ties so I couldn't tell you BA would pick up the slack for SLC since DL dropped it. Is it seasonal and where could they use that slot? Additional ATL/JFK? Add RDU or CVG?

"DL" returns to the ATL MID market. Maybe with AM metal they have better success this time. It's huge market but one that has proven tough for most Non Mexican carriers and a market that is used to driving to CUN and flying from there.

*DL SLC-LHR NOV 0.6>0 DEC 0.5>0 JAN 0.6>0 FEB 0.6>0

Do they have to use this slot now, or are they allowed to just sit on it for four months?

Thanks so much for this report as usual

enilria wrote:

AA JFK-SFO OCT 7>5 NOV 7>5 DEC 7>6

AA has cut down capacity on this route to 5 a day for several months. Maybe they are not doing so well.

It was not for sale beyond OCT, so it is gone. Appears to be off their site, replaced by a flight via PEK.
*CA LAX-SZX JUL 0.4>0 AUG 0.4>0 SEP 0.4>0 OCT 0.4>0

not too surprising, since people in Shenzhen prefer to fly out of Guangzhou airport

DL SEA-ANC OCT 3>4 NOV 3>4
DL SEA-DEN SEP 4>5
DL SEA-GEG DEC 7>8 JAN 6>8 FEB 6>8
DL SEA-LAX OCT 10>9 NOV 10>9
DL SEA-PDX SEP 6>7 OCT 6>8 NOV 6>8 DEC 6>8 JAN 6>8 FEB 6>8
DL SEA-PHX NOV 3>4
DL SEA-SFO NOV 6>7 DEC 6>7 JAN 6>7 FEB 6>7
DL SEA-SJC SEP 4>5 OCT 4>5 NOV 4>5 DEC 4>5

And DL continues to pick on the little guys.

UA SFO-FLL SEP 0.2>1.0 JAN 0.5>2 FEB 0>2

wonder if this is a reaction to Mint? They have been at one a day out of both FLL and MIA to SFO.

aaflyer777 wrote:

*DL SLC-LHR NOV 0.6>0 DEC 0.5>0 JAN 0.6>0 FEB 0.6>0

Do they have to use this slot now, or are they allowed to just sit on it for four months?

Maybe VS can use it to take Londoners to the tropics during winter?
Or DL can use the new A359 to launch the A.net LHR-HNL dream route for winter only.

cvgComair wrote:

enilria wrote:

*DL SLC-LHR NOV 0.6>0 DEC 0.5>0 JAN 0.6>0 FEB 0.6>0

Unfortunately this was not surprising, SLC-LHR has had terrible load factors, I am surprised it lasted year-round this long. Here are the loads from November 2016 on DL to LHR:

City, Seats, Load
ATL, 13919, 78%
JFK, 17225, 73%
MSP, 5876, 73%
DTW, 5459, 56%
BOS, 5690, 55%
SEA, 5878, 52%
SLC, 3569, 45%
PHL, 4592, 35%

Looks like PDX-LHR will also resume in March 2018.

I forgot all about the AF JFK-ORY service. Anyone know how the flight is doing overall? I would like to see a LAX-ORY flight one day.

Interesting UA's CLE-MCO will go less than daily. Not a good sign for a long time point to point route.

Air China has not dropped SZX-LAX plans.

Its start up is delayed due DOT taking too long to process the request. Flight was approved by DOT only on May 19th instead of originally anticipated February approval.

tphuang wrote:

Thanks so much for this report as usual

tphuang wrote:

enilria wrote:

AA JFK-SFO OCT 7>5 NOV 7>5 DEC 7>6

AA has cut down capacity on this route to 5 a day for several months. Maybe they are not doing so well.

Good point. The AA front cabin product is lackluster,yes?

tphuang wrote:

DL SEA-ANC OCT 3>4 NOV 3>4
DL SEA-DEN SEP 4>5
DL SEA-GEG DEC 7>8 JAN 6>8 FEB 6>8
DL SEA-LAX OCT 10>9 NOV 10>9
DL SEA-PDX SEP 6>7 OCT 6>8 NOV 6>8 DEC 6>8 JAN 6>8 FEB 6>8
DL SEA-PHX NOV 3>4
DL SEA-SFO NOV 6>7 DEC 6>7 JAN 6>7 FEB 6>7
DL SEA-SJC SEP 4>5 OCT 4>5 NOV 4>5 DEC 4>5

And DL continues to pick on the little guys.

Good point

tphuang wrote:

UA SFO-FLL SEP 0.2>1.0 JAN 0.5>2 FEB 0>2

wonder if this is a reaction to Mint? They have been at one a day out of both FLL and MIA to SFO.

No doubt

aaflyer777 wrote:

*DL SLC-LHR NOV 0.6>0 DEC 0.5>0 JAN 0.6>0 FEB 0.6>0

Do they have to use this slot now, or are they allowed to just sit on it for four months?

I believe they do have to use it, but they can just let somebody else use it for them. I think there's a lot of trading.

AirAfreak wrote:

I forgot all about the AF JFK-ORY service. Anyone know how the flight is doing overall? I would like to see a LAX-ORY flight one day.

I as well. Doesn't appear to be very good.

enilria wrote:

AA DFW-CDG FEB 0.8>1.0
AA DFW-FRA JAN 0.8>1.0
AA JFK-BCN JAN 0.7>1.0 FEB 0.8>1.0
AA JFK-MXP DEC 0.8>1.0
AA LAX-PVG DEC 0.9>1.0
AA LAX-SYD NOV 0.8>1.0
AA MIA-CDG NOV 0.8>0.9
AA ORD-CDG DEC 0.7>1.0
AA ORD-NRT JAN 0.8>1.0 FEB 0.8>1.0
AA PHL-AMS DEC 0.8>1.0
AA PHL-MUC NOV 0.7>0.9

*D8 SWF-BGO NOV 0>0.3 DEC 0>0.3 FEB 0>0.3
*D8 SWF-DUB NOV 0.4>0.9 DEC 0.4>0.8 JAN 0.4>0.9 FEB 0.4>0.9

With the reported softness in Europe travel, interesting to see AA increasing several Europe flights back to daily (or near daily) in low season months. Though they are doing this for some Pacific routes as well so perhaps just a philosophy change and not Europe-specific.

I believe SWF-DUB was originally announced as daily. Is this just an extension of that, or is D8 seeing success with the route and increasing capacity as a result?

cvgComair wrote:

Unfortunately this was not surprising, SLC-LHR has had terrible load factors, I am surprised it lasted year-round this long. Here are the loads from November 2016 on DL to LHR:

City, Seats, Load
PHL, 4592, 35%

DL apparently really, really wants that LHR slot to use for something else when they've run out the required PHL time.

enilria wrote:

This is a great example of how the AA, formerly US, schedule philosophy really oversells capacity sometimes. This route is flat YOY, but they were selling 4x capacity.
AA PHL-SEA OCT 4>1.1 NOV 4>1.0 DEC 4>3

This is weird, since it normally runs one trip off-peak, two trips in the shoulder, and three trips in peak. Why would it have ever scheduled 4 trips off-peak? Was it expecting an offensive from DL?

Where would DL use all of these LHR slots? It has more coming in, SLC cut, PHL doing horribly, PDX is only seasonal. CVG has been rumored, but it's hard to imagine if DL can't make SLC, a much bigger hub, work. I suppose they could try to run AA off the RDU-LHR route.

msycajun wrote:

Where would DL use all of these LHR slots? It has more coming in, SLC cut, PHL doing horribly, PDX is only seasonal. CVG has been rumored, but it's hard to imagine if DL can't make SLC, a much bigger hub, work. I suppose they could try to run AA off the RDU-LHR route.

DL doesn't have to use the slots, VS can as part of the JV, either seasonally or year-round. No idea whether that will happen or not, but it's an option the JV has.

ty97 wrote:

msycajun wrote:

Where would DL use all of these LHR slots? It has more coming in, SLC cut, PHL doing horribly, PDX is only seasonal. CVG has been rumored, but it's hard to imagine if DL can't make SLC, a much bigger hub, work. I suppose they could try to run AA off the RDU-LHR route.

DL doesn't have to use the slots, VS can as part of the JV, either seasonally or year-round. No idea whether that will happen or not, but it's an option the JV has.

Not just VS, they could lease them to other Skyteam partners or even simply to other airlines (e.g. QR? ). Leasing/renting out slots at LHR happens a lot.

ty97 wrote:

msycajun wrote:

Where would DL use all of these LHR slots? It has more coming in, SLC cut, PHL doing horribly, PDX is only seasonal. CVG has been rumored, but it's hard to imagine if DL can't make SLC, a much bigger hub, work. I suppose they could try to run AA off the RDU-LHR route.

DL doesn't have to use the slots, VS can as part of the JV, either seasonally or year-round. No idea whether that will happen or not, but it's an option the JV has.

Well sure VS is an option, but the questions remains as to where they could profitably fly.

Thanks Enilria!

enilria wrote:

*AM ATL-BJX SEP 0>1.0 OCT 0>2 NOV 0>2 DEC 0>2 JAN 0>2 FEB 0>2
*AM ATL-GDL DEC 0>1.0 JAN 0>1.0 FEB 0>1.0
*AM ATL-MID DEC 0>1.0 JAN 0>1.0 FEB 0>1.0
*AM ATL-MTY NOV 0>1.0 DEC 0>1.0 JAN 0>1.0 FEB 0>1.0
*AM ATL-QRO NOV 0>1.0 DEC 0>1.0 JAN 0>1.0 FEB 0>1.0

AM is certainly coming back to ATL in a big way. They should stick around longer this time.

enilria wrote:

*JL KOA-NRT SEP 0>0.5 OCT 0>1.0 NOV 0>1.0 DEC 0>1.0 JAN 0>1.0 FEB 0>1.0

So this route finally came to fruition.

enilria wrote:

cvgComair wrote:

enilria wrote:

*DL SLC-LHR NOV 0.6>0 DEC 0.5>0 JAN 0.6>0 FEB 0.6>0

Unfortunately this was not surprising, SLC-LHR has had terrible load factors, I am surprised it lasted year-round this long. Here are the loads from November 2016 on DL to LHR:

City, Seats, Load
ATL, 13919, 78%
JFK, 17225, 73%
MSP, 5876, 73%
DTW, 5459, 56%
BOS, 5690, 55%
SEA, 5878, 52%
SLC, 3569, 45%
PHL, 4592, 35%

Most of those are surprisingly bad

I would've expected BOS and especially DTW to be higher.

ty97 wrote:

With the reported softness in Europe travel, interesting to see AA increasing several Europe flights back to daily (or near daily) in low season months. Though they are doing this for some Pacific routes as well so perhaps just a philosophy change and not Europe-specific.

I noticed that too. Perhaps some of those routes are being downgauged?

.. Who is J1 ? PIT-ALB/MKE .. curious about this airline and what type plane they fly.

klwright69 wrote:

Interesting UA's CLE-MCO will go less than daily. Not a good sign for a long time point to point route.

September and October: Kids back at school, beautiful weather in the north. The flight resumes daily departures in November.

F27500 wrote:

.. Who is J1 ? PIT-ALB/MKE .. curious about this airline and what type plane they fly.

One Jet. They use Windward and Lear 35 a/c. If it works it works. But imo their a/c sit on the ground for too long.

lavalampluva wrote:

F27500 wrote:

.. Who is J1 ? PIT-ALB/MKE .. curious about this airline and what type plane they fly.

One Jet. They use Windward and Lear 35 a/c. If it works it works. But imo their a/c sit on the ground for too long.

One Jet actually uses Raytheon 400A. The flight are operated by Corporate Flight Management; the Lear and Westwind are used for back-up.

enilria wrote:

tphuang wrote:

enilria wrote:

AA JFK-SFO OCT 7>5 NOV 7>5 DEC 7>6

AA has cut down capacity on this route to 5 a day for several months. Maybe they are not doing so well.

Good point. The AA front cabin product is lackluster,yes?

it's actually the strongest transcon product. the new 321T

enilria wrote:

City, Seats, Load
ATL, 13919, 78%
JFK, 17225, 73%
MSP, 5876, 73%
DTW, 5459, 56%
BOS, 5690, 55%
SEA, 5878, 52%
SLC, 3569, 45%
PHL, 4592, 35%

Sightseer wrote:

I would've expected BOS and especially DTW to be higher

Two things stand out to me about BOS:

1). It has a higher load factor than SEA & SLC and nowhere near the connectivity that SEA & SLC benefits from, plus it also has VS on the BOS-LHR route so that's 2 dailies. While 55% isn't anything to write home about, I'm impressed.

2). BOS is 1% lower than DTW, one of the largest hubs in DL's system. I'd say that from an O&D perspective BOS is #2 only behind JFK, and JFK gets up to the 70s because of connections.

yellowtail wrote:

"DL" returns to the ATL MID market. Maybe with AM metal they have better success this time. It's huge market but one that has proven tough for most Non Mexican carriers and a market that is used to driving to CUN and flying from there.

The market is absolutely tiny. I'd be shocked if this last long, especially at daily. Maybe cut back to Saturday service at some point.

wenders825 wrote:

it's actually the strongest transcon product. the new 321T

I agree. Arguably, the AA 321T F product is the best domestic coast to coast premium product out there.

MO11 wrote:

enilria wrote:

This is a great example of how the AA, formerly US, schedule philosophy really oversells capacity sometimes. This route is flat YOY, but they were selling 4x capacity.
AA PHL-SEA OCT 4>1.1 NOV 4>1.0 DEC 4>3

This is weird, since it normally runs one trip off-peak, two trips in the shoulder, and three trips in peak. Why would it have ever scheduled 4 trips off-peak? Was it expecting an offensive from DL?

AS is in the market, so I might think this was a way of sucking bookings away, although it is so far out that the impact is fairly small.

Sightseer wrote:

Thanks Enilria!

Thanks

clrd4t8koff wrote:

2). BOS is 1% lower than DTW, one of the largest hubs in DL's system. I'd say that from an O&D perspective BOS is #2 only behind JFK, and JFK gets up to the 70s because of connections.

Building on what somebody else said. Where DL controls the fares the loads are terrible. In JFK where they don't the loads are high because the fares are lower. ATL has BA right?

Seat1F wrote:

wenders825 wrote:
it's actually the strongest transcon product. the new 321T


I agree. Arguably, the AA 321T F product is the best domestic coast to coast premium product out there.

Maybe I'm wrong. Then why the cut?

enilria wrote:

UA SFO-FLL SEP 0.2>1.0 JAN 0.5>2 FEB 0>2

tphuang wrote:

wonder if this is a reaction to Mint? They have been at one a day out of both FLL and MIA to SFO.

enilria wrote:

No doubt

I don't buy that there is a connection. It's far more likely that the market has been performing well and deserves a set of a top-up. That is likely what lead to the mint introduction as well.

GCT64 wrote:

ty97 wrote:

msycajun wrote:

Where would DL use all of these LHR slots? It has more coming in, SLC cut, PHL doing horribly, PDX is only seasonal. CVG has been rumored, but it's hard to imagine if DL can't make SLC, a much bigger hub, work. I suppose they could try to run AA off the RDU-LHR route.

DL doesn't have to use the slots, VS can as part of the JV, either seasonally or year-round. No idea whether that will happen or not, but it's an option the JV has.

Not just VS, they could lease them to other Skyteam partners or even simply to other airlines (e.g. QR? ). Leasing/renting out slots at LHR happens a lot.

Indeed, I see another AMS-LHR on a KL EMB175/190 coming (or if they're a little bit more creative a CDG-LHR on AF)..

lavalampluva wrote:

F27500 wrote:

.. Who is J1 ? PIT-ALB/MKE .. curious about this airline and what type plane they fly.

One Jet. They use Windward and Lear 35 a/c. If it works it works. But imo their a/c sit on the ground for too long.

LOL ...OK .. that has "success" written ALL over it, huh!?

clrd4t8koff wrote:

enilria wrote:

City, Seats, Load
ATL, 13919, 78%
JFK, 17225, 73%
MSP, 5876, 73%
DTW, 5459, 56%
BOS, 5690, 55%
SEA, 5878, 52%
SLC, 3569, 45%
PHL, 4592, 35%

Sightseer wrote:

I would've expected BOS and especially DTW to be higher

Two things stand out to me about BOS:

1). It has a higher load factor than SEA & SLC and nowhere near the connectivity that SEA & SLC benefits from, plus it also has VS on the BOS-LHR route so that's 2 dailies. While 55% isn't anything to write home about, I'm impressed.

2). BOS is 1% lower than DTW, one of the largest hubs in DL's system. I'd say that from an O&D perspective BOS is #2 only behind JFK, and JFK gets up to the 70s because of connections.

Keep in mind in November both DL and VS don't operate their own flights every day. With both airlines at least one flight in each direction is operated daily but there are only a few days where both airlines operate both directions. Example: DL operates LHR-BOS only and VS operates turn, VS operates turn while DL flies BOS-LHR, DL operates turn while VS is no-op.

JFK does have more flights and also a much bigger VS operation along with a much bigger connection network so it seems about right.

DL SLC-LHR NOV 0.6>0 DEC 0.5>0 JAN 0.6>0 FEB 0.6>0

Do they have to use this slot now, or are they allowed to just sit on it for four months?

No coincidence that in the same week as the DL SLC-LHR winter cut is announced, Jet Airways has announced a third daily BOM-LHR service this winter with great connections to the VS and DL transatlantic services from LHR, surely?

F27500 wrote:

lavalampluva wrote:

F27500 wrote:

.. Who is J1 ? PIT-ALB/MKE .. curious about this airline and what type plane they fly.

One Jet. They use Windward and Lear 35 a/c. If it works it works. But imo their a/c sit on the ground for too long.

LOL ...OK .. that has "success" written ALL over it, huh!?

Well, that will be airplane number 5, so the first four must be doing OK.

So, is SLC-LHR permanently cut, or is it going seasonal like SLC-AMS is?

MO11 wrote:

F27500 wrote:

lavalampluva wrote:

One Jet. They use Windward and Lear 35 a/c. If it works it works. But imo their a/c sit on the ground for too long.

LOL ...OK .. that has "success" written ALL over it, huh!?

Well, that will be airplane number 5, so the first four must be doing OK.

Lear jets in scheduled service. OK.

(I give them till mid-July).

Seat1F wrote:

wenders825 wrote:

it's actually the strongest transcon product. the new 321T

I agree. Arguably, the AA 321T F product is the best domestic coast to coast premium product out there.

The F and J are certainly good products, but A321T only sits 10F, 20J and 72 Y/Y+. Maybe they are not getting the revenue premium they need for such a configuration out of SFO.

on JFK/EWR to LAX routes, the peak number of flights for each carrier in descending order by the end of this year
AA 13, UA 13, B6 11, VX 10 (6 at JFK), DL 9

I would say AA has the best schedule as someone who prefers JFK

on JFK/EWR to SFO, we have
UA 15, VX 9 (5 at JFK), DL 7, B6 6 and AA 5

So AA now has the worst schedule. Not really great for operating a product that demands premium. If certainly doesn't look great for AA here.

F27500 wrote:

MO11 wrote:

F27500 wrote:

LOL ...OK .. that has "success" written ALL over it, huh!?

Well, that will be airplane number 5, so the first four must be doing OK.

Lear jets in scheduled service. OK.

(I give them till mid-July).

Actually a Beechjet (400A). The Pittsburgh operation began February 2016 with two airplanes.

F27500 wrote:

MO11 wrote:

F27500 wrote:

LOL ...OK .. that has "success" written ALL over it, huh!?

Well, that will be airplane number 5, so the first four must be doing OK.

Lear jets in scheduled service. OK.

(I give them till mid-July).

You should try Google some time. Your speculation is noted but OneJet started in April of 2015 so it will be ignored.

enilria wrote:

*D8 SWF-BGO NOV 0>0.3 DEC 0>0.3 FEB 0>0.3

SWF-BGO is the longest D8 MAX route - it will be interesting to see how this one performs in Winter westbound.

It looks like both AA and UA are adding additional frequencies between the U.S. and several European destinations this upcoming winter season when compared to last years season.
Did the US3 cut capacity to much to Europe during the 2016/17 winter season or are future bookings just that strong that they see a need to add frequencies to certain destinations in Europe. Looking at the US3 first quarter results European RSM's were not all that great even with the reduction in flying. I'm just curious as to why they are adding capacity instead of holding it flat.

enilria wrote:

clrd4t8koff wrote:
2). BOS is 1% lower than DTW, one of the largest hubs in DL's system. I'd say that from an O&D perspective BOS is #2 only behind JFK, and JFK gets up to the 70s because of connections.

Building on what somebody else said. Where DL controls the fares the loads are terrible. In JFK where they don't the loads are high because the fares are lower. ATL has BA right?

I would also guess BOS is pretty high on O&D. But surely the fares are primarily set by BA with four daily flights? They do have a daily ATL flight as well, mostly on a 77W these days.

tjerome wrote:

Keep in mind in November both DL and VS don't operate their own flights every day. With both airlines at least one flight in each direction is operated daily but there are only a few days where both airlines operate both directions. Example: DL operates LHR-BOS only and VS operates turn, VS operates turn while DL flies BOS-LHR, DL operates turn while VS is no-op.

That's interesting and also means VS has to RON in BOS in order for that to work. I guess in November they can afford the reduced utilization.

WesternA318 wrote:

So, is SLC-LHR permanently cut, or is it going seasonal like SLC-AMS is?

Seasonal.

tphuang wrote:

Thanks so much for this report as usual

enilria wrote:

AA JFK-SFO OCT 7>5 NOV 7>5 DEC 7>6

AA has cut down capacity on this route to 5 a day for several months. Maybe they are not doing so well.

It was not for sale beyond OCT, so it is gone. Appears to be off their site, replaced by a flight via PEK.
*CA LAX-SZX JUL 0.4>0 AUG 0.4>0 SEP 0.4>0 OCT 0.4>0

not too surprising, since people in Shenzhen prefer to fly out of Guangzhou airport

DL SEA-ANC OCT 3>4 NOV 3>4
DL SEA-DEN SEP 4>5
DL SEA-GEG DEC 7>8 JAN 6>8 FEB 6>8
DL SEA-LAX OCT 10>9 NOV 10>9
DL SEA-PDX SEP 6>7 OCT 6>8 NOV 6>8 DEC 6>8 JAN 6>8 FEB 6>8
DL SEA-PHX NOV 3>4
DL SEA-SFO NOV 6>7 DEC 6>7 JAN 6>7 FEB 6>7
DL SEA-SJC SEP 4>5 OCT 4>5 NOV 4>5 DEC 4>5

And DL continues to pick on the little guys.

UA SFO-FLL SEP 0.2>1.0 JAN 0.5>2 FEB 0>2

wonder if this is a reaction to Mint? They have been at one a day out of both FLL and MIA to SFO.

Who Alaska? Please.

When the CEO of Alaska touts his airline is going to become the No 1 airline of choice in the west, what does a competitor do? Give me a break.

AirportRival wrote:

F27500 wrote:

MO11 wrote:

Well, that will be airplane number 5, so the first four must be doing OK.

Lear jets in scheduled service. OK.

(I give them till mid-July).

You should try Google some time. Your speculation is noted but OneJet started in April of 2015 so it will be ignored.

And what large company is subsisizing a silly service like this? If it were a stand alone company, theres no way something like this would still be operating. And eventually whoever is footing the bill for some pipe dream private jet scheduled "airline" like this will decide to pull the plug quietly after they have hemorrhaged enough dough. We'll talk more then so you can tell me I was right.

Sightseer wrote:

WesternA318 wrote:

So, is SLC-LHR permanently cut, or is it going seasonal like SLC-AMS is?

Seasonal.

Seasonal as of now. If the plane really went to Jet Airways then I think that will be tempting not to unwind. The challenge for VS and now DL at LHR has always been connectivity. That's a lot of why those off months are so awful. With Jet in the fold and code sharing that might allow some feed. We'll see if that feed is worth giving up an SLC slot.

masseybrown wrote:

klwright69 wrote:

Interesting UA's CLE-MCO will go less than daily. Not a good sign for a long time point to point route.

September and October: Kids back at school, beautiful weather in the north. The flight resumes daily departures in November.

October isn't a great time to Florida for vacation, but one would expect more choices out of CLE to MCO than just NK and F9 nonetheless on any weekday, when UA is less than daily. WN has atleast 2x daily on PIT-MCO during October. I'd guess WN or B6 would be good alternatives and can attract business traffic as well as leisure, as MCO draws business traffic (e.g. conventions) as well.

Sightseer wrote:

That's interesting and also means VS has to RON in BOS in order for that to work. I guess in November they can afford the reduced utilization.

No, VS doesn't ever RON unless a mechanical or something like that happens. I might have worded that wrong. When VS comes it always does a turn, and there are days when VS does not operate at all. They never fly only leg, always both or neither.

AirportRival wrote:

F27500 wrote:

MO11 wrote:

Well, that will be airplane number 5, so the first four must be doing OK.

Lear jets in scheduled service. OK.

(I give them till mid-July).

You should try Google some time. Your speculation is noted but OneJet started in April of 2015 so it will be ignored.

Been following them for some time. When it started, IND was the focus city, and Pentastar the direct air carrier. Moved to PIT and CFM in 2016.

Google.....

n7371f wrote:

tphuang wrote:

Thanks so much for this report as usual

enilria wrote:

AA JFK-SFO OCT 7>5 NOV 7>5 DEC 7>6

AA has cut down capacity on this route to 5 a day for several months. Maybe they are not doing so well.

It was not for sale beyond OCT, so it is gone. Appears to be off their site, replaced by a flight via PEK.
*CA LAX-SZX JUL 0.4>0 AUG 0.4>0 SEP 0.4>0 OCT 0.4>0

not too surprising, since people in Shenzhen prefer to fly out of Guangzhou airport

DL SEA-ANC OCT 3>4 NOV 3>4
DL SEA-DEN SEP 4>5
DL SEA-GEG DEC 7>8 JAN 6>8 FEB 6>8
DL SEA-LAX OCT 10>9 NOV 10>9
DL SEA-PDX SEP 6>7 OCT 6>8 NOV 6>8 DEC 6>8 JAN 6>8 FEB 6>8
DL SEA-PHX NOV 3>4
DL SEA-SFO NOV 6>7 DEC 6>7 JAN 6>7 FEB 6>7
DL SEA-SJC SEP 4>5 OCT 4>5 NOV 4>5 DEC 4>5

And DL continues to pick on the little guys.

UA SFO-FLL SEP 0.2>1.0 JAN 0.5>2 FEB 0>2

wonder if this is a reaction to Mint? They have been at one a day out of both FLL and MIA to SFO.

Who Alaska? Please.

When the CEO of Alaska touts his airline is going to become the No 1 airline of choice in the west, what does a competitor do? Give me a break.

Lol. Right. DL adds a few flights and they are "picking" on a "little guy" - that little guy that has 2x the market share of DL in SEA. Nearly 300 aircraft and $6B in revenue.

I guess DL should stick to adding flights where they only compete with AA and UA - everyone else is little by comparison.