Preview 2017 Paris Airshow, Announcements, Expectations, Almost Baseless Rumours

mig17 · Sun Jun 04, 2017 3:49 pm

Newbiepilot wrote:
keesje wrote:
KLM's (5!) 737-900 unlike 900ER can only carry 180 people. Many airlines operate A321s next to their 737NG's. A321s will soon be doing TATL. Norwegian, AirLingus, WoW, Azores, TAP others are making up their minds SAS, Jetblue, AA, DL.

It would be interesting if KLM became a 737-10 launch customer. Boeing needs to launch with orders outside the United States in my opinion to ensure success of the program.

The Air France KLM Group is not interested in new single aisle aircraft for now except maybe for Transavia. The fleet replacement plan will be reviewed only in 2019 if I am correct.

mjoelnir · Sun Jun 04, 2017 3:56 pm

Newbiepilot wrote:
keesje wrote:
KLM's (5!) 737-900 unlike 900ER can only carry 180 people. Many airlines operate A321s next to their 737NG's. A321s will soon be doing TATL. Norwegian, AirLingus, WoW, Azores, TAP others are making up their minds SAS, Jetblue, AA, DL.

It would be interesting if KLM became a 737-10 launch customer. Boeing needs to launch with orders outside the United States in my opinion to ensure success of the program.

tIMO the 737-10 will not be a success outside of the USA, the 737-900 and 737-900ER was not and now the 737-9 is not a success outside of the USA. Most of the airlines needing a 737-10 sized frame use the A321.

kengo · Sun Jun 04, 2017 4:09 pm

ANA and/or JAL placing orders for MAX or NEO to replace their mostly 737NG fleet? Both have been quiet in regard to their NB replacement plans.

Stitch · Sun Jun 04, 2017 4:16 pm

kengo wrote:
ANA and/or JAL placing orders for MAX or NEO to replace their mostly 737NG fleet? Both have been quiet in regard to their NB replacement plans.

ANA already has selected the A321-200neo for the top end of their narrowbody fleet along with a handful of A320-200neos to replace their current A320-200ceos. Their A320-operating subsidiaries have also ordered the A320neo as replacement frames. That being said, I could see them ordering the 737-7 and 737-8 to replace their 737-700s and 737-800s along with those operated by their subsidiaries.

JAL is all 737-800 so I would guess the 737-8 has the inside edge, but if they want more capacity or performance, they could go split-order 737-8 / A321-200neo like ANA or just switched to the A320neo family.

7673mech · Sun Jun 04, 2017 4:41 pm

anshabhi wrote:
MoM exists only in rumours and hasn't been even announced officially as a project yet.

Tell that to the group currently working on it.

Newbiepilot · Sun Jun 04, 2017 5:17 pm

[twoid][/twoid]

mjoelnir wrote:

tIMO the 737-10 will not be a success outside of the USA, the 737-900 and 737-900ER was not and now the 737-9 is not a success outside of the USA. Most of the airlines needing a 737-10 sized frame use the A321.

The 737-10 has not even been launched yet. It seems a little premature to believe that it will be a failure outside of the United States. Only on a.net do we predict failure before launch... We don't even know what the final configuration of the plane will be yet.

lightsaber · Sun Jun 04, 2017 7:28 pm

Stitch wrote:
bunumuring wrote:
IF the MoM is launched I reckon it will be at the Dubai air show with Emirates and/or Qatar ordering it.

Why Emirates? Flydubai seems a more logical choice to me. As for Qatar, they're already well-invested in the A320 family unless the A321-200neoLR lacks the payload-range they want for long-haul.

FlyDubai adopting the type makes sense.
I see the launch happening this year. By launch I mean offered for orders, with a not completely fixed configuration.

Lightsaber

Stitch · Sun Jun 04, 2017 7:37 pm

Boeing's BoD has not yet granted Authority to Offer for the MoM so they can't launch it at Paris. But I fully expect Boeing's sales teams will be canvassing customers about their interest and desires to feed back to the Board for when they decide on whether or not to approve ATO.

Jetsouth · Sun Jun 04, 2017 9:04 pm

Here is my guess regarding Bombardier:
1) One large order for the CSeries, and a few small orders. Bombardier has been saying for a long time that there will be a major Delta-sized order for the CSeries this year
2) No announcement for the CS500 yet
3) An announcement that the CRJ series is going to be re-engined and re-tweaked.
4) Possible announcement of a stretched Q400

mjoelnir · Sun Jun 04, 2017 9:30 pm

Newbiepilot wrote:
[twoid][/twoid]
mjoelnir wrote:

tIMO the 737-10 will not be a success outside of the USA, the 737-900 and 737-900ER was not and now the 737-9 is not a success outside of the USA. Most of the airlines needing a 737-10 sized frame use the A321.

The 737-10 has not even been launched yet. It seems a little premature to believe that it will be a failure outside of the United States. Only on a.net do we predict failure before launch... We don't even know what the final configuration of the plane will be yet.

So how do you do your predictions that airlines will buy it? Either it is reasonable to speculate on that or not, or is the only speculation aloud that a new Boeing will be a hot seller?
It is my opinion that the 737 is at the end of the line. The 737-800 works well, but the bigger frames are a bust.

georgiabill · Sun Jun 04, 2017 9:40 pm

Any chances of seeing orders for 787'S? Perhaps top off orders from BA? Surely they could use more 789'S and perhaps a few more 788'S for future route developements. Hoping LH group might order 787'S for OS and SN. However with the news SN is looking to buy more A330'S not likely now.

LamboAston · Mon Jun 05, 2017 11:25 am

VirginFlyer wrote:
zkncj wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:

That's bold given the Q300 average age is only 10.5 defenatly baseless.

Maybe a couple more 789's? If anything but NZ don't seem to announce at air shows.

https://p-airnz.com/cms/assets/PDFs/air ... tation.pdf

Page 60 - 23 Q300s to leave the fleet by 2020?

That's not quite what it is saying. In 2020, there will be 23 Q300s which are unencumbered (have no ongoing financial liabilities). This doesn't necessarily mean the aircraft are going to be retired then.

V/F

However they aren't coming off lease, which leads me to think that they are going, unless you know any other reason.

jbs2886 · Mon Jun 05, 2017 1:08 pm

LamboAston wrote:
VirginFlyer wrote:
zkncj wrote:

https://p-airnz.com/cms/assets/PDFs/air ... tation.pdf

Page 60 - 23 Q300s to leave the fleet by 2020?

That's not quite what it is saying. In 2020, there will be 23 Q300s which are unencumbered (have no ongoing financial liabilities). This doesn't necessarily mean the aircraft are going to be retired then.

V/F

However they aren't coming off lease, which leads me to think that they are going, unless you know any other reason.

Correct - they aren't coming off lease - because they are owned. See slide 64. On slide 65, the airline discusses its "ability to flex down" because it will have unencumbered aircraft (i.e., the Q300s). Stated differently, the Q300s will be kept because they are owned outright (no loans) unless they need to reduce capacity.

If an airline retired every unencumbered aircraft, investors would flip out and well, there would be a lot of retired planes. Retirement and unencumbered are simply not correlated.

chiad · Mon Jun 05, 2017 2:54 pm

Air India to buy up to 75 frames of either A320NEO or B737MAX families.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-jet-a ... SKBN18W1EV

jbs2886 · Mon Jun 05, 2017 2:54 pm

chiad wrote:
Air India to buy up to 75 frames of either A320NEO or B737MAX families.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-jet-a ... SKBN18W1EV

Umm. You say Air India but your link says Jet Airways.

chiad · Mon Jun 05, 2017 4:09 pm

jbs2886 wrote:
chiad wrote:
Air India to buy up to 75 frames of either A320NEO or B737MAX families.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-jet-a ... SKBN18W1EV

Umm. You say Air India but your link says Jet Airways.

Yeah

Sorry about that.

I will repeat what my history teacher said (100 years ago):
Don't listen to what I say, but what I mean.

neutrino · Mon Jun 05, 2017 4:20 pm

chiad wrote:
jbs2886 wrote:
chiad wrote:
Air India to buy up to 75 frames of either A320NEO or B737MAX families.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-jet-a ... SKBN18W1EV

Umm. You say Air India but your link says Jet Airways.

Yeah
Sorry about that.

I will repeat what my history teacher said (100 years ago):
Don't listen to what I say, but what I mean.

But if you do not say what you mean, then you don't mean what you say.

ist2014 · Mon Jun 05, 2017 4:23 pm

It is so sad that TK is out of the game for the past 2-3 years and will be out of the game for an other2-3 years
Otherwise i would expect an order fot 30-40 wb such as 350.787.777x

rotating14 · Tue Jun 06, 2017 12:19 pm

https://mobile.nytimes.com/reuters/2017 ... 0&referer=

JT could be the launch customer for the 737 MAX 10.

chiad · Tue Jun 06, 2017 12:29 pm

neutrino wrote:
But if you do not say what you mean, then you don't mean what you say.

..... processing ....
:headache:

Momo1435 · Tue Jun 06, 2017 12:30 pm

The Jet Airways order according to Bloomberg (they say 50 instead of reuters 75) could also be for the 737 MAX 10. It's going up against the A321 and the 737 MAX 200.

"Jet Airways Said to Mull Boeing Max 10 as It Nears 50-Jet Order"
https://www.bloombergquint.com/markets/ ... t-j3jyasbv

mig17 · Tue Jun 06, 2017 12:47 pm

Egyptair for 25 narrowbodies (737Max vs A320 neo) and 15 widebodies (787 vs A350).

frigatebird · Tue Jun 06, 2017 1:52 pm

mjoelnir wrote:
Newbiepilot wrote:
keesje wrote:
KLM's (5!) 737-900 unlike 900ER can only carry 180 people. Many airlines operate A321s next to their 737NG's. A321s will soon be doing TATL. Norwegian, AirLingus, WoW, Azores, TAP others are making up their minds SAS, Jetblue, AA, DL.

It would be interesting if KLM became a 737-10 launch customer. Boeing needs to launch with orders outside the United States in my opinion to ensure success of the program.

tIMO the 737-10 will not be a success outside of the USA, the 737-900 and 737-900ER was not and now the 737-9 is not a success outside of the USA. Most of the airlines needing a 737-10 sized frame use the A321.

With the exception of KLM. And KLM does need a larger narrowbody, as AMS is getting near its maximum allowed number of take-offs/landings. So I do expect KL to order the 73X, although not as launch customer. I believe the AF/KL group will evaluate its future narrowbody needs later this year, probably announcing an order next year. Most for AF, highly likely A32xNEO, but I expect top up 737 orders for HV (737MAX200) and KL as well (737MAX-9 and -10 - if launched).

The 737MAX-9 and -10 will sell decently. Not as much as the A321neo and not that many in Europe, but it will be able to gain its RoI and prevent several airlines having to switch to A321s.

pabloeing · Tue Jun 06, 2017 2:23 pm

AIR NZ would be the next B777X operator

Boeing778X · Tue Jun 06, 2017 3:00 pm

pabloeing wrote:
AIR NZ would be the next B777X operator

I'm not sure. There are several carriers that are the potential next 777X customer, IMHO.

jbs2886 · Tue Jun 06, 2017 3:03 pm

Boeing778X wrote:
pabloeing wrote:
AIR NZ would be the next B777X operator

I'm not sure. There are several carriers that are the potential next 777X customer, IMHO.

He did say "operator" - but I'm not sure we can make such determinations yet. Now, since I'm done making distinctions - I think its possible Air NZ orders 77Xs, but I agree, I think others will order it before Air NZ.

keesje · Wed Jun 07, 2017 9:44 am

.
We might finally see Jetblue convert A321NEO to A321LR's. They have been discussing it for more than a year.
http://aviationweek.com/awincommercial/jetblue-sees-opening-transatlantic-premium-market

Maybe they are preparing already, you don't want to inform the market / competition too early about your intentions..
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aAVy4Hj2nx4

Newbiepilot · Wed Jun 07, 2017 12:37 pm

keesje wrote:
.
We might finally see Jetblue convert A321NEO to A321LR's. They have been discussing it for more than a year.
http://aviationweek.com/awincommercial/jetblue-sees-opening-transatlantic-premium-market

Maybe they are preparing already, you don't want to inform the market / competition too early about your intentions..
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aAVy4Hj2nx4

Is converting A321neos to A321LRs a big enough deal to announce it at an airshow? It is just a small MTOW increase. I think the bigger news would be if JetBlue is going to start flying Transatlantic. I'm not sure if the Paris Airshow is where JetBlue would want to make such an announcement since it might get drowned out. I think JetBlue would try to make an announcement of flying Transatlantic in some flashy way in New York rather than Paris. JetBlue would probably wait for an announcement until they are ready to sell tickets.

Like you said, there is no point announcing your intentions to your competitors. JetBlue also wants to probably make announcements and link them to some outrageous low fare launch advertisements to get people to book right away. Launch with commercials offering $99 fares to Europe (and make the return flight $500) to get the attention of consumers.

Egerton · Wed Jun 07, 2017 12:50 pm

I join a minority by suggesting IAG will take up some options for the A380

keesje · Wed Jun 07, 2017 2:10 pm

Newbiepilot wrote:
keesje wrote:
.
We might finally see Jetblue convert A321NEO to A321LR's. They have been discussing it for more than a year.
http://aviationweek.com/awincommercial/jetblue-sees-opening-transatlantic-premium-market

Maybe they are preparing already, you don't want to inform the market / competition too early about your intentions..
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aAVy4Hj2nx4

Is converting A321neos to A321LRs a big enough deal to announce it at an airshow? It is just a small MTOW increase. I think the bigger news would be if JetBlue is going to start flying Transatlantic. I'm not sure if the Paris Airshow is where JetBlue would want to make such an announcement since it might get drowned out. I think JetBlue would try to make an announcement of flying Transatlantic in some flashy way in New York rather than Paris. JetBlue would probably wait for an announcement until they are ready to sell tickets.

Like you said, there is no point announcing your intentions to your competitors. JetBlue also wants to probably make announcements and link them to some outrageous low fare launch advertisements to get people to book right away. Launch with commercials offering $99 fares to Europe (and make the return flight $500) to get the attention of consumers.

Makes sense. Probably not on PAS

EK for 20 additional A380's maybe..

http://gulfnews.com/business/aviation/emirates-said-in-talks-over-deal-for-20-airbus-a380-superjumbos-1.2040102

rotating14 · Thu Jun 08, 2017 3:30 am

Add CM and 9W to the MAX 10 conversation while UA mulls over converting 61 MAX orders to the - 10.

UA is also considering the A321 NEO as well but is taking a "handful" of 77Ws from Boeing.

Stay tuned for more

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... -10-launch

jbs2886 · Thu Jun 08, 2017 3:31 am

rotating14 wrote:
Add CM and 9W to the MAX 10 conversation while UA mulls over converting 61 MAX orders to the - 10.

UA is also considering the A321 NEO as well but is taking a "handful" of 77Ws from Boeing.

Stay tuned for more

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... -10-launch

61 is a specific number, I wonder where that comes from.

gatibosgru · Thu Jun 08, 2017 3:34 am

KarelXWB wrote:
Oman Air to announce an A350 order:

https://twitter.com/economyworld781/sta ... 6710697984

Would be yet another 787/A350 operator. Despite what a lot of users here think, it isn't always one or the other.

rotating14 · Thu Jun 08, 2017 4:21 am

jbs2886 wrote:
rotating14 wrote:
Add CM and 9W to the MAX 10 conversation while UA mulls over converting 61 MAX orders to the - 10.

UA is also considering the A321 NEO as well but is taking a "handful" of 77Ws from Boeing.

Stay tuned for more

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... -10-launch

61 is a specific number, I wonder where that comes from.

I believe it stems from a 737-700 order that was partially converted to the MAX 8, 4. The remainder (61) is what is in question.

ikolkyo · Thu Jun 08, 2017 4:25 am

rotating14 wrote:
jbs2886 wrote:
rotating14 wrote:
Add CM and 9W to the MAX 10 conversation while UA mulls over converting 61 MAX orders to the - 10.

UA is also considering the A321 NEO as well but is taking a "handful" of 77Ws from Boeing.

Stay tuned for more

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... -10-launch

61 is a specific number, I wonder where that comes from.

I believe it stems from a 737-700 order that was partially converted to the MAX 8, 4. The remainder (61) is what is in question.

Small correction, 4 737-800 not MAX 8.

rotating14 · Thu Jun 08, 2017 4:42 am

ikolkyo wrote:
rotating14 wrote:
jbs2886 wrote:

61 is a specific number, I wonder where that comes from.

I believe it stems from a 737-700 order that was partially converted to the MAX 8, 4. The remainder (61) is what is in question.

Small correction, 4 737-800 not MAX 8.

Thank you for the correction.

94717 · Thu Jun 08, 2017 5:32 am

keesje wrote:

EK for 20 additional A380's maybe..

http://gulfnews.com/business/aviation/emirates-said-in-talks-over-deal-for-20-airbus-a380-superjumbos-1.2040102

20 A380s + a few more (IAG etc) means that Airbus getting closer to the magic year 2025 when a NEO with new genneration engines can be offered.

rotating14 · Thu Jun 08, 2017 11:37 am

olle wrote:
keesje wrote:

EK for 20 additional A380's maybe..

http://gulfnews.com/business/aviation/emirates-said-in-talks-over-deal-for-20-airbus-a380-superjumbos-1.2040102

20 A380s + a few more (IAG etc) means that Airbus getting closer to the magic year 2025 when a NEO with new genneration engines can be offered.

Those plans have been scrapped for now. https://www.reuters.com/article/emirate ... SD5N1FF01K

KarelXWB · Thu Jun 08, 2017 11:56 am

There never was "a plan" to acquire A380s at the Paris air show, the original article states the end of 2017 (Dubai air show?).

rotating14 · Thu Jun 08, 2017 1:28 pm

KarelXWB wrote:
There never was "a plan" to acquire A380s at the Paris air show, the original article states the end of 2017 (Dubai air show?).

... I was letting user Olle know that EK was not going to buy A380s as you colorfully described in a thread you started. To correct me on general verbiage while delivering the message correctly is a bit critical, but okay ...

KarelXWB · Thu Jun 08, 2017 1:33 pm

rotating14 wrote:
KarelXWB wrote:
There never was "a plan" to acquire A380s at the Paris air show, the original article states the end of 2017 (Dubai air show?).

... I was letting user Olle know that EK was not going to buy A380s as you colorfully described in a thread you started. To correct me on general verbiage while delivering the message correctly is a bit critical, but okay ...

You may want to re-read the original article in the other thread.

Stitch · Thu Jun 08, 2017 2:27 pm

rotating14 wrote:
jbs2886 wrote:
rotating14 wrote:
Add CM and 9W to the MAX 10 conversation while UA mulls over converting 61 MAX orders to the - 10.

61 is a specific number, I wonder where that comes from.

I believe it stems from a 737-700 order that was partially converted to the 737-8, 4. The remainder (61) is what is in question.

United's 737-700 orders totaled 65 frames. As noted, 4 were converted to 737-800s, leaving 61 to be converted to 737-10.

jbs2886 · Thu Jun 08, 2017 2:39 pm

Stitch wrote:
rotating14 wrote:
jbs2886 wrote:
61 is a specific number, I wonder where that comes from.

I believe it stems from a 737-700 order that was partially converted to the 737-8, 4. The remainder (61) is what is in question.

United's 737-700 orders totaled 65 frames. As noted, 4 were converted to 737-800s, leaving 61 to be converted to 737-10.

Thanks, makes sense. What this means is they intend to keep 737-MAX9s on order (likely) and then convert orders to 737-MAX10s.

VC10er · Sun Jun 18, 2017 1:39 pm

I was about to start a thread on this, but perhaps it's best to just post it here:

I read an article a few days ago on CNN.com that United is widely expected (as per the financial and aviation analysts) to place orders in Paris. I just spent the past 30 minutes trying to find the article so I could read it again because I wanted to post it here.

I know that UA has 100 737-MAX 9's on order, so I was wondering if United did order the MAX 10, would they be convered MAX 9's, or incremental orders? Would that make UA the launch customer?

If UA were to acquire the 737-MAX 10, how many would you guess and how would they use them? Could the MAX 10 do the premium transcontinental missions that the 757's have been plowing for many years? Would it open up cities on either coast beyond EWR/BOS/SFO/LAX?

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