leghorn
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How long would a Q400X stretch take to reach market

Fri May 19, 2017 8:50 am

Seeing as Bombardier has done preliminary investigations already for a proper 90 seater Q400(not the reduced seat pitch product they offer at the moment) assuming finance was available and firm orders in the bag how long do you think it would take to reach customer? 30 months? 36months? more? Supposedly the current engines and wing section doesn't need to be reworked.
 
BestWestern
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Re: How long would a Q400X stretch take to reach market

Fri May 19, 2017 9:46 am

When was the last order for more than a dozen Q400s?
Greetings from Hong Kong.... a subsidiary of China Inc.
 
leghorn
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Re: How long would a Q400X stretch take to reach market

Fri May 19, 2017 9:57 am

That's not the question.
An seventy to eighty something passenger Q400 with higher fuel burn than an ATR72 is not what the market wants.
A Q400 with near 100 seats has a Unique Selling point at the moment despite higher fuel burn than other turboprops.
 
downdata
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Re: How long would a Q400X stretch take to reach market

Fri May 19, 2017 10:03 am

It's not like the ATRs are selling like hotcakes... plus, im pretty sure bomb's priority is the cseries, its been, what, almost 12 months since the last order by AC
 
r2rho
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Re: How long would a Q400X stretch take to reach market

Fri May 19, 2017 11:39 am

While I see a market for a 100 seat TP, with current engines, it's too late. Already, the Q400 does not offer enough of a cost advantage vs E175 for many airlines. A proper 90-seat Q400X (94-98 seats in ULCC mode) would have to compete against the E175-E2... against which the cost advantage would be even worse... likely even turned into a disadvantage.

The next TP, whether from BBD or ATR, must have new engines to maintain the same cost advantage versus GTFs that current generation TP's have versus the CF34.
 
leghorn
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Re: How long would a Q400X stretch take to reach market

Fri May 19, 2017 12:37 pm

It didn't stop Ryanair ordering 737NG even though they knew 737max was on the way.
They could use those older technology planes profitably for years before the new technology arrived.
If they have long term plans to re-engine they might as well get the stretch out of the way first as one isn't heavily dependent on the other.
 
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Polot
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Re: How long would a Q400X stretch take to reach market

Fri May 19, 2017 1:34 pm

leghorn wrote:
It didn't stop Ryanair ordering 737NG even though they knew 737max was on the way.
They could use those older technology planes profitably for years before the new technology arrived.
If they have long term plans to re-engine they might as well get the stretch out of the way first as one isn't heavily dependent on the other.

Two problems with that comparison:

1) Ryanair can get 737NGs (in bulk) much sooner than 737MAXs. A Q400X stretch wouldn't be arriving much sooner than any E175-E2 (if ever built)/E190-E2 considering BBD hasn't designed, built, and certified any such stretch yet.
2) Boeing has built ~6,400 737NGs since the mid to late 90s, meaning its development costs have long been paid off and Boeing can afford to be aggressive with its pricing. Again BBD has yet to design, build, and certify a Q400X stretch, meaning obviously it has sold zero of them and would still need to recuperate their investment.

A more apt comparison would be suggesting that Boeing develop the 737-10 not off the 737MAX, but off the 737NG. Which is ridiculous.
 
Dominion301
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Re: How long would a Q400X stretch take to reach market

Fri May 19, 2017 1:50 pm

downdata wrote:
It's not like the ATRs are selling like hotcakes... plus, im pretty sure bomb's priority is the cseries, its been, what, almost 12 months since the last order by AC


So the near-official 50 ATRs for IndiGo and 20 firm for Iran Air in the past few weeks aren't your definition of 'hotcakes'?
 
peterj324
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Re: How long would a Q400X stretch take to reach market

Fri May 19, 2017 3:14 pm

I have trouble imagining a Q400 stretch. The Q-400 is a really long prop as is and stretching it would create some balance problems I would imagine. Plus as a poster mentioned before, the ATR is selling well and the 90-100 seat market is already covered by the E-175/190 CS-100 and CRJ900/1000.

It wouldn't be practical for the US market either because it would be well above the regional scope clause.
 
Dash9
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Re: How long would a Q400X stretch take to reach market

Fri May 19, 2017 5:43 pm

peterj324 wrote:
I have trouble imagining a Q400 stretch. The Q-400 is a really long prop as is and stretching it would create some balance problems I would imagine. Plus as a poster mentioned before, the ATR is selling well and the 90-100 seat market is already covered by the E-175/190 CS-100 and CRJ900/1000.

It wouldn't be practical for the US market either because it would be well above the regional scope clause.


The Q and CRJ cross-section are quite similar and the CRJ could be extended to 100 pax so I don't see why the Q400 couldn't. Plus the Q has center engines while the CRJ are at the back, creating even more balance and stress issues. IMO stretching the Q400 to add 3-4 rows wouldn't be such a big deal from en engineering perspective. But from a market and financial perspective, not sure how that would work out.
 
VSMUT
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Re: How long would a Q400X stretch take to reach market

Fri May 19, 2017 6:19 pm

IMHO, the best bet for Bombardier would be to wait for a new generation of turboprop engines. The current generation of engines is positively antiquated. The ATRs PW127 is more or less a late 70s/early 80s design, which also forms the basis for the Q400s engine. Both types would benefit a lot from newer and more efficient engines, utilizing some of the latest technologies as seen in the LeapX, GenX and GTF etc.

Dash9 wrote:
The Q and CRJ cross-section are quite similar and the CRJ could be extended to 100 pax so I don't see why the Q400 couldn't. Plus the Q has center engines while the CRJ are at the back, creating even more balance and stress issues. IMO stretching the Q400 to add 3-4 rows wouldn't be such a big deal from en engineering perspective. But from a market and financial perspective, not sure how that would work out.


The Q400 has its landing gear further forward than the CRJ. The geometry during rotation would be a bigger issue for a stretched Q400 than with a CRJ1000.
 
baje427
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Re: How long would a Q400X stretch take to reach market

Fri May 19, 2017 6:26 pm

The smarter move would be to get the Q400 more fuel efficient while simultaneously reducing the selling price BBD has not had a major order for the Q since Westjet.
 
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mercure1
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Re: How long would a Q400X stretch take to reach market

Fri May 19, 2017 7:09 pm

downdata wrote:
It's not like the ATRs are selling like hotcakes...


:sarcastic:

ATR certainly doing better than BBD

ATR sold 80 frames in 2016 and 70(50 pending Indigo MOU) so far in 2017.
BBD sold 22 Q400s in 2016 and 00 in 2017 so far

ATR backlog is 292, while Q400 is 26 as of end of Q1.
 
dc9northwest
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Re: How long would a Q400X stretch take to reach market

Fri May 19, 2017 7:10 pm

Depends on how far the market is.
 
c933103
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Re: How long would a Q400X stretch take to reach market

Fri May 19, 2017 7:12 pm

So, if one day, let say in year 2025, when bombardier have freed their hand from whatever they were developing and decided to release a new q400x, how long would it take from the moment they started to actually invest and work on it, to the moment it get delivered and EIS?
 
Dash9
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Re: How long would a Q400X stretch take to reach market

Fri May 19, 2017 7:32 pm

VSMUT wrote:

The Q400 has its landing gear further forward than the CRJ. The geometry during rotation would be a bigger issue for a stretched Q400 than with a CRJ1000.


Totally forgot about the rotation angle.... indeed quite an issue. Hopefully they won't make the landing gear even longer!
 
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par13del
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Re: How long would a Q400X stretch take to reach market

Fri May 19, 2017 8:54 pm

peterj324 wrote:

It wouldn't be practical for the US market either because it would be well above the regional scope clause.


Which is the problem with the Q400, the rest of the world did not need an a/c that fast and that large. The a/c was aimed squarely at the US market and scope killed it, just wonder why they did not know that when they designed the thing.

Dash-8's are still popular but getting up there in age, no replacement is available other than the ATR so...........
 
B777LRF
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Re: How long would a Q400X stretch take to reach market

Fri May 19, 2017 8:55 pm

Rotation angle not the only issue, pitch angle at landing might be an even bigger one. Two ways to overcome that: revised flap system or higher speeds. The first is probably out of the question, the second would mean relatively long landing distances becoming even longer. Not what you want in a propjob.
From receips and radials over straight pipes to big fans - been there, done that, got the hearing defects to prove
 
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LAXintl
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Re: How long would a Q400X stretch take to reach market

Fri May 19, 2017 9:01 pm

If anything BBD should figure out how to make the Q400 cheaper to operate and more reliable along with being able to sell it at lower cost.

In many cases the Q400 is simply too much airplane for many customers. Its has overpowered engines, and the speed benefit is not many customers need or want. Its hourly operating cost are higher than the ATR and so it also its maintenance burden.

In many ways, the ATR is like a durable economy car that just keeps running, while the Q400 is more a pricey and temperamental faux luxury model that requires more attention.
From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
 
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aemoreira1981
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Re: How long would a Q400X stretch take to reach market

Fri May 19, 2017 10:33 pm

peterj324 wrote:
I have trouble imagining a Q400 stretch. The Q-400 is a really long prop as is and stretching it would create some balance problems I would imagine. Plus as a poster mentioned before, the ATR is selling well and the 90-100 seat market is already covered by the E-175/190 CS-100 and CRJ900/1000.

It wouldn't be practical for the US market either because it would be well above the regional scope clause.

Plus, at how many airfields are 80-100 seat turboprops needed that cannot handle jet aircraft? Just order an E175-E2 or an E190-E2.

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