Then DL will probably add more seats to their 757 - 300s.

gsg013 wrote:

IMHO the reason the 757 continues to being brought back is due to the modifications. 5 years ago most 757-200's in DL's fleet were in the 165-176 seat range. Now with the 199 pax modification and the new cabin (along with sustained low fuel prices) the 757-200 with 199 pax is quite an economical bird.

On another note for a route that needs ~200 pax with relatively longer legs there is not an alternative they could use a domestic 767-300 however the operating costs of widebody vs a 757 are much higher.

I don't disagree with your reasoning for keeping the 757s longer, but I think it needs to be mentioned that almost all of DL's domestic 757s had 180-186 seats prior to modifications. Still a noticeable increase in seats, but not quite that large.

For those who've flown on the current version of the DAL A321, what's the best first class seat? Row one is open on a flight I'm taking but I'm reading different reviews on the first row being good or bad. Anyone have opinions?

Row 1 is rarely advisable due to the hard bulkhead in front, lack of storage behind the seat in front of you, and the limited overhead storage if there is crew equipment and for what would otherwise go under your seat. I'll take Row 1 over a seat in Y, but Rows 2-5 are all similar and better in my opinion.

Polot wrote:

And officially defers 10 A350s as rumored.

Vindication!!!!!!!!!

n7371f wrote:

BG777300ER wrote:

Bye bye some 757s?

Nope.

Advancing MD88 retirements.

In fact the 757 keeps getting additional lives. Future schedules for Hawaii are going back to all 757's with the 739 being pulled, this is per talk from Flight Ops.

And there's still talk that a few more 757's mothballed in Marana may come back...

Not so fast on the advancing the MD88 retirements, rumor is the MD90 may be on the block.

Dalmd88 wrote:

n7371f wrote:

BG777300ER wrote:

Bye bye some 757s?

Nope.

Advancing MD88 retirements.

In fact the 757 keeps getting additional lives. Future schedules for Hawaii are going back to all 757's with the 739 being pulled, this is per talk from Flight Ops.

And there's still talk that a few more 757's mothballed in Marana may come back...

Not so fast on the advancing the MD88 retirements, rumor is the MD90 may be on the block.

I mentioned this upthread because I've heard some rumblings about the 90 being the next to go. I know a lot of the landing gear are coming through for their second rework, and the gear that came off the frames we bought were garbage. Parts are really getting hard to come by.

I'm not sure if everyone noticed this but at LGA they dont send the MD-88 anymore we are seeing many more Airbus A320 family of aircraft recently. You do still see the 717 and MD-90 pretty often as well.

It's interesting how long DL has extended the life of the MD-88's as AA about 5 or so years ago couldnt get rid of them fast enough.

gsg013 wrote:

I'm not sure if everyone noticed this but at LGA they dont send the MD-88 anymore we are seeing many more Airbus A320 family of aircraft recently. You do still see the 717 and MD-90 pretty often as well.

DL released a whole press release about no longer sending MD-88s to LGA earlier this year touting it as for noise pollution reasons, there was even a thread about it here (can't find it right now). According to members here it was in reality due to navigation issues and the MD-88's computers not having a enough memory to have new navigational routes programmed in for LGA along with other airports they visit (i.e. ATL) so LGA was dropped, or something like that. Someone else can provide the actual details.

It's interesting how long DL has extended the life of the MD-88's as AA about 5 or so years ago couldnt get rid of them fast enough.

To be fair it is looking like DL's MD-88s will only last ~2 years longer than AA's. 5 or so years ago everyone was expecting DL to operate the MD-80 much longer than that.

Dalmd88 wrote:

n7371f wrote:

BG777300ER wrote:

Bye bye some 757s?

Nope.

Advancing MD88 retirements.

In fact the 757 keeps getting additional lives. Future schedules for Hawaii are going back to all 757's with the 739 being pulled, this is per talk from Flight Ops.

And there's still talk that a few more 757's mothballed in Marana may come back...

Not so fast on the advancing the MD88 retirements, rumor is the MD90 may be on the block.

The MD90 is next, no doubt. I look for the MD90 fleet to be gone around 2023.

Delta just add 10 more, They must really LOVE the 321!

http://news.delta.com/delta-boost-airbu ... e-aircraft

Keith2004 wrote:

Delta just add 10 more, They must really LOVE the 321!

http://news.delta.com/delta-boost-airbu ... e-aircraft

It's going to be very interesting to see which new gen narrowbody they select for their upcoming RFP.

scbriml wrote:

Keith2004 wrote:

Delta just add 10 more, They must really LOVE the 321!

http://news.delta.com/delta-boost-airbu ... e-aircraft

It's going to be very interesting to see which new gen narrowbody they select for their upcoming RFP.

I believe DL will order both the 737Max and A320Neo. They already have a mixed fleet and a need for so many aircraft that not one manufacturer can fulfill alone.

Keith2004 wrote:

Delta just add 10 more, They must really LOVE the 321!

http://news.delta.com/delta-boost-airbu ... e-aircraft

Very much so!

With continued softness in fuel prices I keep thinking the RFP requirements will be made up of another 30 end of line A321ceo another 30
end of line 737-900ER but with the twist of ordering another 80-90 CS300, essentially by cleaning up the open Republic order book, which was not abrogated during their bankruptcy. IIRC Delta is a significant shareholder in Republic and also provided the DIP financing during their trip through bankruptcy. The CS's are ideal for Delta's west coast expansion in LAX and SEA. I think they have been keeping close eyes on Swiss and Baltic operations regarding the performance of the latter and while I have no particular insights, all I read is that Swiss and Baltic have been pleased enough to increase their orders for the CS. I just have a feeling they will be sitting out the neo and max sweepstakes for one more year. Getting additional current generation A321 and B737-900 at around the $40mm price mark is just too compelling to Delta's model of keeping Capex at around $3bn-$3.2bn per year while still bringing debt down. Keeping the Bombardier program viable has strategic long term advantages for Delta. I also think they will ask the pilots union for a bit of relief on current scope rules to allow them to start a replacement cycle with their regional affiliates, and order a certain number of the E175E2, which as I understand it at present are just over the current scope weight threshold.

Also now that fuel hedges seem mostly wound up, it keeps looking to me as I look over their financials that Delta is getting their fuel at a cost of about 4-5% less than their main competitors, so that effectively negates at least a portion of the fuel savings of the neo's and max's. I think the refinery provides Delta a window into actual fuel costs, crack spreads, and how much they can squeeze the suppliers for the balance of their fuel requirements.

Keith2004 wrote:

Delta just add 10 more, They must really LOVE the 321!

http://news.delta.com/delta-boost-airbu ... e-aircraft

Delta's fleet buys strike me more as the Filene's Basement approach to aircraft acquisition. 'Let it sit there a little longer. It will be even cheaper when we come back next week.'

It's easy enough to say that NEO or MAX have a xx% improvement in fuel burn based on anticipated avg stage length for the subfleet, then apply hours used, assumption(s) of fuel costs per gallon over XX years, and apply a discount rate. But we don't know how cheaply Delta is buying 321CEOs vs. NEOs or MAX. If it's cheap enough to acquire in quantity almost anything makes sense (except the A346!)

Ten A321s in a fleet of ~850 mainline aircraft really rounds down to nothing.

MIflyer12 wrote:

Ten A321s in a fleet of ~850 mainline aircraft really rounds down to nothing.

Except it's not just 10 A321s, it's now 122 and only going in one direction. Not really a rounding error, is it?

scbriml wrote:

It's going to be very interesting to see which new gen narrowbody they select for their upcoming RFP.

I doubt we'll see an upcoming RFP; the continued late-model 739 & 321 orders make it unlikely.
- Factoring in known retirements (MD-88, 763A, etc.) against confirmed orders yields the capacity equivalent of ~60 739/321 and the 75 CS100, all to be delivered within 5 years or so; this is significantly more capacity than DL intends to grow at.
- DL's invested tens of billions into orders for 60 330/35, 250+ 739/321, 75 CS100, and 100+ E75/CR9 -- the lion's share of which are scheduled to be delivered over a 5-year period.
- An additional billion was just sunk into renovating the domestic narrowbody fleet. Let's face it: earlier this year, DL decided to keep & overhaul the interior of 7 B757 built in the early 1990s; they're not doing this just to retire them in 2-3 years. If that were the case, they could've refreshed the interiors and continued to operate the aircraft on short-haul aircraft, just as they have been doing. Most likely, the planes will stick around close to 7 more years.

Reality is, the current orders likely take into account some additional (currently undisclosed) retirements. It'll probably be several years before DL launches an RFP. Instead, as airlines replace their current generation 737 & 320, DL will likely be an opportunistic purchaser of late-model aircraft as residuals fall.

In any event... it's almost a certainty that DL will be a mixed Boeing / Airbus operator going forward.

MIflyer12 wrote:

Keith2004 wrote:

Delta just add 10 more, They must really LOVE the 321!

http://news.delta.com/delta-boost-airbu ... e-aircraft

Delta's fleet buys strike me more as the Filene's Basement approach to aircraft acquisition. 'Let it sit there a little longer. It will be even cheaper when we come back next week.'

It's easy enough to say that NEO or MAX have a xx% improvement in fuel burn based on anticipated avg stage length for the subfleet, then apply hours used, assumption(s) of fuel costs per gallon over XX years, and apply a discount rate. But we don't know how cheaply Delta is buying 321CEOs vs. NEOs or MAX. If it's cheap enough to acquire in quantity almost anything makes sense (except the A346!)

Ten A321s in a fleet of ~850 mainline aircraft really rounds down to nothing.

"Filene's Basement"

Well that 10 is a part of a fleet to be 122 aircraft on an airline that had none a couple years ago

They do have 100+ MAXs on order also, but they definitely have a more value oriented view on planes,
Shiny and new is less important to getting a bargain on an old proven workhorse.....I mean they stand alone with MD-90 and almost alone with 717, both acquired at Filene's Basement style clearance....or black Friday may be more accurate

jbs2886 wrote:

Keith2004 wrote:

MIflyer12 wrote:

Delta's fleet buys strike me more as the Filene's Basement approach to aircraft acquisition. 'Let it sit there a little longer. It will be even cheaper when we come back next week.'

It's easy enough to say that NEO or MAX have a xx% improvement in fuel burn based on anticipated avg stage length for the subfleet, then apply hours used, assumption(s) of fuel costs per gallon over XX years, and apply a discount rate. But we don't know how cheaply Delta is buying 321CEOs vs. NEOs or MAX. If it's cheap enough to acquire in quantity almost anything makes sense (except the A346!)

Ten A321s in a fleet of ~850 mainline aircraft really rounds down to nothing.

"Filene's Basement"

Well that 10 is a part of a fleet to be 122 aircraft on an airline that had none a couple years ago

They do have 100+ MAXs on order also, but they definitely have a more value oriented view on planes,
Shiny and new is less important to getting a bargain on an old proven workhorse.....I mean they stand alone with MD-90 and almost alone with 717, both acquired at Filene's Basement style clearance....or black Friday may be more accurate

Since when does DL have 100+ MAXs on order?

Ur right I misspoke, I was thinking about the 100+ 737-900ERs they have on order

scbriml wrote:

MIflyer12 wrote:

Ten A321s in a fleet of ~850 mainline aircraft really rounds down to nothing.

Except it's not just 10 A321s, it's now 122 and only going in one direction. Not really a rounding error, is it?

The news today is the incremental order. It's destined to be a nice size subfleet fleet, but today's order doesn't provide significant new insight to fleet strategy. Delta's 739 and A321 fleets are being built by multiple (some small, like this) transactions - as was the MD-90 fleet. A few receipts of 73W and 738 from Gol...

I'll remind you that DL is retiring A320s even as it receives A321s. Delta's Airbus narrowbody fleet is going to grow over the next four years but it's not all incremental.

It would be very interesting to know how Delta's average pricing for (now) 122 A321s and 130 739s compares to AA's big marquee orders for Boeing and Airbus narrowbodies in 2011. Maybe there is a pricing benefit to opportunistic ordering.

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/07/21/busin ... akers.html


I will accept that as unknowable.

MIflyer12 wrote:

The news today is the incremental order. It's destined to be a nice size subfleet fleet, but today's order doesn't provide significant new insight to fleet strategy. Delta's 739 and A321 fleets are being built by multiple (some small, like this) transactions - as was the MD-90 fleet. A few receipts of 73W and 738 from Gol...

I'll remind you that DL is retiring A320s even as it receives A321s. Delta's Airbus narrowbody fleet is going to grow over the next four years but it's not all incremental

Between now and 2021, on the domestic side DL is scheduled to retire 3 320, 3 757, 3 763-A and 116 MD-80; using some rough math, that's about 19,087 seats. Meanwhile, they're set to take delivery of 1 738, 51 739 and 101 321; that's abut 28,732 seats. Additionally, they'll create about 500 additional seats by completing aircraft reconfiguration. The change in capacity is equivalent to 56 additional B739 and that's before taking into consideration the 75 CSeries. (Capacity within Connection is expected to remain stagnant). That's on paper; the infusion of capacity is much greater when you consider utilization of the new CSeries, B739 and A321 will be slightly higher than that of the collective group of aircraft exiting the fleet. Plus, it's possible DL could follow AA and UA's lead (although AA seems to have resided the decision) and reduce pitch on select economy seats, thereby creating capacity equivalent to a number of aircraft.

My whole point is that a.net is drooling for a major DL narrow-body order but we've already got it; it just came incrementally. DL isn't installing new interiors, complete with PTVs, in 25-year-old A320 and B757 just to retire them in a few years (DL is capitalizing these costs over 7 years, IIRC). IMO. those hoping for a major order within the next 5 years will be sorely disappointed.

That said, the additional capacity coming into the system is greater than DL intends on growing. Perhaps DL intends on cutting utilization of some of its aging types or perhaps it's decided to retire additional aircraft.

My comments:
We will see the official numbers as soon as the June 30/2017 10Q's come out in mid to late July. My back of the envelope calculations are that their June 30 2017 reports will show that they will have about 55-57 737-900ER still to be delivered ( including the 10 added to the order book near the end of Q1 2017) and now will have between 99 and 100 A321 still to be received.

I have been tracking Deltas capex and aircraft purchase commitments every quarter for the past 8 years on an Excel spreadsheet, using the 10K's and 10Q's as the basis of information. My calculations are that Delta is getting the first 100 of the 737-900ER at around US$42-44mm each, while the newest 10 (Boeing conversion of put option) are probably costing between $40 and 42mm. As far as the A321's, I come up with an average cost of between 42 and 44mm each but I suspect that the newest 30 ordered (and now 40) ' near 'end of the line' ceo's are likely to be at the lower end of this range. I should be able to get a better feel for this speculative comment after the June 30, 2017 10Q's get released. The A359 are costing around $127mm each and the CS100 about $26mm each. The newest A330-300 IGW cost under $87mm each and I am calculating that their A333-900 launch pricing is pretty much the same as what they paid for the A333's. While neither Delta nor the manufacturers ever announce the actual purchase price, only revealing so and so ''order is valued at $x at list prices'', it is pretty clear that Delta pretty much consistently commands a 55%-60% or even higher discount off of list prices. My numbers may be off by a single handful of percentage points, As far as I can determine Delta makes minimal deposits on new aircraft orders, under 3% and perhaps even under 2%. Deltas new aircraft deposits are small enough that they don't cross the threshold of having to be broken out on their financial reporting as being ''significant'' balance sheet wise. Whereas United in their 2015 fiscal year 10K felt they had to disclose making advance deposits of just under $800million, against new aircraft purchase commitment balance of $23.2bn, and in their 2016 fiscal year end 10K, they disclosed advance deposits of just over $1bn, leaving a balance owing on new aircraft purchase commitments of $23.3bn, resulting in a United deposit ratio of 3.5%-4.5%. BTW American lists deposits of $1.2bn and a order commitment balance still due of $18bn, ie a ratio of 6.6% at year end 2016. Delta has a superior credit rating to United and American. I conclude their deposit percentages will be lower than what United and American have had to put up.

More significant pre-delivery deposits typically only seem to take place when the specific aircraft goes into actual production, which in the case of the narrow bodies seem to be taking no more than one calendar quarter from production start to finish. So in any one specific quarter I may end up, in the case of Delta, off by a couple hundred million dollars in capex estimated new aircraft commitments, but usually this seems to suggest a heavier delivery schedule for new aircraft at the beginning of the next quarter, as those variations in reported commitments to my calculated commitments seem to + and - (plus and minus) i.e. balance themselves out over a period of a few fiscal quarters.

Updated: to also list American's deposits and commitments.

compensateme wrote:

MIflyer12 wrote:

The news today is the incremental order. It's destined to be a nice size subfleet fleet, but today's order doesn't provide significant new insight to fleet strategy. Delta's 739 and A321 fleets are being built by multiple (some small, like this) transactions - as was the MD-90 fleet. A few receipts of 73W and 738 from Gol...

I'll remind you that DL is retiring A320s even as it receives A321s. Delta's Airbus narrowbody fleet is going to grow over the next four years but it's not all incremental

Between now and 2021, on the domestic side DL is scheduled to retire 3 320, 3 757, 3 763-A and 116 MD-80; using some rough math, that's about 19,087 seats. Meanwhile, they're set to take delivery of 1 738, 51 739 and 101 321; that's abut 28,732 seats. Additionally, they'll create about 500 additional seats by completing aircraft reconfiguration. The change in capacity is equivalent to 56 additional B739 and that's before taking into consideration the 75 CSeries. (Capacity within Connection is expected to remain stagnant). That's on paper; the infusion of capacity is much greater when you consider utilization of the new CSeries, B739 and A321 will be slightly higher than that of the collective group of aircraft exiting the fleet. Plus, it's possible DL could follow AA and UA's lead (although AA seems to have resided the decision) and reduce pitch on select economy seats, thereby creating capacity equivalent to a number of aircraft.

My whole point is that a.net is drooling for a major DL narrow-body order but we've already got it; it just came incrementally. DL isn't installing new interiors, complete with PTVs, in 25-year-old A320 and B757 just to retire them in a few years (DL is capitalizing these costs over 7 years, IIRC). IMO. those hoping for a major order within the next 5 years will be sorely disappointed.

That said, the additional capacity coming into the system is greater than DL intends on growing. Perhaps DL intends on cutting utilization of some of its aging types or perhaps it's decided to retire additional aircraft.

I personally think DL realizes waiting for new engine aircraft will be the smarter business decision. You list what Delta must replace. But there is an economic advantage to early retirement of the following:
A319: Qty 57
A320-200: Qty 65
MD-90: Qty 65

I do expect a large order to replace the above. I just think Delta will wait for the right NEO/MAX offer. Note: the MD-90s won't really be replaced by a new order, well used 738s will probably replace them with the new planes going into higher utilization duty.

Delta should order new, they just should wait until 2018 or 2019. I see an order for 150 to 200 new narrowbodies then. Possibly a split order, possibly with one vendors. DL will be offered great discounts as they will be accepting the new aircraft over a long timeline (nice steady production run). Bombardier, Airbus, and Boeing will have to earn the order. DL will consider the Boeing MAX -9/-10, the A320/A321NEO, but Bombardier either sells a small number (at most 60) more C-series, or offers the CS500 (for at most an order of 120 aircraft).

The advantage is for Delta to wait. 2017 is bad for aircraft sales. 2018 will be worse.

Lightsaber

compensateme wrote:

Between now and 2021, on the domestic side DL is scheduled to retire 3 320, 3 757, 3 763-A and 116 MD-80; using some rough math, that's about 19,087 seats. Meanwhile, they're set to take delivery of 1 738, 51 739 and 101 321; that's abut 28,732 seats. Additionally, they'll create about 500 additional seats by completing aircraft reconfiguration. The change in capacity is equivalent to 56 additional B739 and that's before taking into consideration the 75 CSeries. (Capacity within Connection is expected to remain stagnant). That's on paper; the infusion of capacity is much greater when you consider utilization of the new CSeries, B739 and A321 will be slightly higher than that of the collective group of aircraft exiting the fleet. Plus, it's possible DL could follow AA and UA's lead (although AA seems to have resided the decision) and reduce pitch on select economy seats, thereby creating capacity equivalent to a number of aircraft.

My whole point is that a.net is drooling for a major DL narrow-body order but we've already got it; it just came incrementally. DL isn't installing new interiors, complete with PTVs, in 25-year-old A320 and B757 just to retire them in a few years (DL is capitalizing these costs over 7 years, IIRC). IMO. those hoping for a major order within the next 5 years will be sorely disappointed.

That said, the additional capacity coming into the system is greater than DL intends on growing. Perhaps DL intends on cutting utilization of some of its aging types or perhaps it's decided to retire additional aircraft.

DL is significantly under-ordered in narrowbodies, unless their intention is to kick the can even farther down the road and create a massive CapEx glut and skyrocketing maintenance costs in the coming years. Then their order books look just fine.

They don't need an order today, but they will need at least one very large order soon, with deliveries starting no more than about 5 years down the road. And that's just to keep their fleet where it is, not grow it. You can't just look at it like they have X amount to replace in the next 5 years. A smart airline will looking at their fleet long-term, such as a rolling 25-year cycle. These days few airliners make it to 30 years of service. The average age is lower. Let's go with 25 for math purposes. Only the most economical and common models tend to make it close to 30, and DL has hundreds that are currently not or never were in both categories (MD-88, MD-90, 717, with the 757 working to join them). About 2/3rds of DL's narrowbody fleet, roughly 530 airplanes by my quick count, is 15 or more years old. It's not hard to do the math. DL has just ~225 narrowbodies on order for delivery through, I believe, 2021. The math doesn't add up. More need to be ordered. And more need to be retired "early". The side benefit to all that would be to start "smoothing out" the ages and not creating another large mess decades later.

Delta should lease a handful of A321LRs under a lease to own scheme to see if they can replace the Delta One 757s.

Delta gets larger orders because it makes multiple small orders of current and not future generation aircraft to help manufacturers fill out production lines. You don't get those kind of discounts if you place large orders for next generation aircraft. Incremental engine efficiency from new models matters much more on long international flights than on domestic flights.

compensateme wrote:

My whole point is that a.net is drooling for a major DL narrow-body order but we've already got it; it just came incrementally. DL isn't installing new interiors, complete with PTVs, in 25-year-old A320 and B757 just to retire them in a few years (DL is capitalizing these costs over 7 years, IIRC). IMO. those hoping for a major order within the next 5 years will be sorely disappointed.

The risk that I see in DL not having any neo or MAX on order is that if the price of fuel rises, they'll be left with a large fleet of older gen aircraft while AA and UA will be flying far more efficient neos and MAXs.

lightsaber wrote:

Delta should order new, they just should wait until 2018 or 2019. I see an order for 150 to 200 new narrowbodies then.

The rumour was that an RFP for 75 (plus 75 options) for neo or MAX would be issued later this year. Depending how long DL takes to decide and how long the price is good for, the order resulting from that RFP could well roll into 2018.

lightsaber wrote:

I personally think DL realizes waiting for new engine aircraft will be the smarter business decision. You list what Delta must replace. But there is an economic advantage to early retirement of the following:
A319: Qty 57
A320-200: Qty 65
MD-90: Qty 65

I do expect a large order to replace the above. I just think Delta will wait for the right NEO/MAX offer. Note: the MD-90s won't really be replaced by a new order, well used 738s will probably replace them with the new planes going into higher utilization duty.

Delta should order new, they just should wait until 2018 or 2019. I see an order for 150 to 200 new narrowbodies then. Possibly a split order, possibly with one vendors. DL will be offered great discounts as they will be accepting the new aircraft over a long timeline (nice steady production run). Bombardier, Airbus, and Boeing will have to earn the order. DL will consider the Boeing MAX -9/-10, the A320/A321NEO, but Bombardier either sells a small number (at most 60) more C-series, or offers the CS500 (for at most an order of 120 aircraft).

The advantage is for Delta to wait. 2017 is bad for aircraft sales. 2018 will be worse.

...except that the 57 A318 and 28 A320 were delivered to NW between 1998 and 2003, collectively making them younger than DL's B717, B738 and B757 sub-fleets. They also collectively average just a tick older than 15-years-old, making them halfway through their useful (Delta) life.

DL's original B739 order was intended to replace the 42 remaining NW "original" 320 (which were built in the early 1990s) but DL subsequently changed its mind. 35 of these aircraft have received brand new interiors and will soon have PTVs. Given that level of investment, it's hard to envision these aircraft exiting the fleet much earlier than 7 years from now (as I mentioned earlier, IIRC, DL capitalizes the refurbishment cost over 7 years).

MSPNWA wrote:

DL is significantly under-ordered in narrowbodies, unless their intention is to kick the can even farther down the road and create a massive CapEx glut and skyrocketing maintenance costs in the coming years. Then their order books look just fine.

Wanna talk about a "massive CapEx glut?" Within the next five years, DL's taking delivery of more than 250 CS100, B739, A321, A330 and A350 aircraft. That's larger than the entire fleets of all but a handful of airlines within the world.

They don't need an order today, but they will need at least one very large order soon, with deliveries starting no more than about 5 years down the road. And that's just to keep their fleet where it is, not grow it. You can't just look at it like they have X amount to replace in the next 5 years. A smart airline will looking at their fleet long-term, such as a rolling 25-year cycle. These days few airliners make it to 30 years of service. The average age is lower. Let's go with 25 for math purposes. Only the most economical and common models tend to make it close to 30, and DL has hundreds that are currently not or never were in both categories (MD-88, MD-90, 717, with the 757 working to join them). About 2/3rds of DL's narrowbody fleet, roughly 530 airplanes by my quick count, is 15 or more years old. It's not hard to do the math. DL has just ~225 narrowbodies on order for delivery through, I believe, 2021. The math doesn't add up. More need to be ordered. And more need to be retired "early". The side benefit to all that would be to start "smoothing out" the ages and not creating another large mess decades later.

Honestly, I think it's naive to believe that DL's current sub-fleets won't be able to economically operate until their 30's. Let's not forget NW operated the crux of its DC-9 and DC-10 fleets well into its 30s, with many of the former reaching their 40th birthday. And as it is, DL's been retiring its 757 around 30-years of age. Reality is, it's just not as practical for the major U.S. legacy carriers to turn their large, mainline fleets around.

Rationally, I think DL's 5-year fleet plan is pretty clear -- it's not installing new interiors w/AVOD in 25-year-old aircraft just to retire them in a year or so. And as the capacity coming into the system within the next 5 years is greater than projected growth (again, equivalent to 56 B739 and the 75 CSeries), I suspect the recent orders are intended to phase out some of the older B757. But I also believe it'll be another few years before DL's ready to place a large CSeries / NEO / MAX order. In the interim, DL will likely be an opportunistic purchaser of used, late-model 320 & 737NG aircraft, particularity as residuals fall.

scbriml wrote:

The risk that I see in DL not having any neo or MAX on order is that if the price of fuel rises, they'll be left with a large fleet of older gen aircraft while AA and UA will be flying far more efficient neos and MAXs.

DL clearly believes that the efficiency of the NEO & MAX are negated by their higher price & debt servicing, otherwise we would've have seen orders for 250 late-model 739 & 321.

The rumour was that an RFP for 75 (plus 75 options) for neo or MAX would be issued later this year. Depending how long DL takes to decide and how long the price is good for, the order resulting from that RFP could well roll into 2018.

I doubt there's any substance to this rumor. Any NEO / MAX ordered today wouldn't be on property for 5-7 years; there's just no reason to rush into an RFP, especially given nearly $20B (at discount pricing) in aircraft set to be delivered in the next several years.

compensateme wrote:

...

The thing you are missing is that right now with the A321/739s Delta is taking advantage of quick delivery slots opening up due Neo/Max issues and other customers not being interested because they want the next gen jets. That scenario (quick delivery in meaningful numbers) does not exist with the Neo/Max. DL has to place an order soon (likely by the end next year, early 2019 at the latest) to ensure they have a healthy flow of new planes coming in the future. If they wait too long then they risk getting stuck in a backlog and having to wait even longer to get Max/Neos flowing in to replace aging planes/expand, or pay through the nose (relatively speaking) to try and get quick delivery slots.

The A320s/738s/whatever maybe ~25 years now, but if DL orders next year they may not get a steady stream of Neos/Maxs coming in until 2022/2023 (when those planes are hitting 30+ and when their interiors are approaching 7 years old).

Well, FWIW, the MD-90s have already started to get scheduled for retirement. First two will be gone in December.

MSPNWA wrote:

compensateme wrote:

Between now and 2021, on the domestic side DL is scheduled to retire 3 320, 3 757, 3 763-A and 116 MD-80; using some rough math, that's about 19,087 seats. Meanwhile, they're set to take delivery of 1 738, 51 739 and 101 321; that's abut 28,732 seats. Additionally, they'll create about 500 additional seats by completing aircraft reconfiguration. The change in capacity is equivalent to 56 additional B739 and that's before taking into consideration the 75 CSeries. (Capacity within Connection is expected to remain stagnant). That's on paper; the infusion of capacity is much greater when you consider utilization of the new CSeries, B739 and A321 will be slightly higher than that of the collective group of aircraft exiting the fleet. Plus, it's possible DL could follow AA and UA's lead (although AA seems to have resided the decision) and reduce pitch on select economy seats, thereby creating capacity equivalent to a number of aircraft.

My whole point is that a.net is drooling for a major DL narrow-body order but we've already got it; it just came incrementally. DL isn't installing new interiors, complete with PTVs, in 25-year-old A320 and B757 just to retire them in a few years (DL is capitalizing these costs over 7 years, IIRC). IMO. those hoping for a major order within the next 5 years will be sorely disappointed.

That said, the additional capacity coming into the system is greater than DL intends on growing. Perhaps DL intends on cutting utilization of some of its aging types or perhaps it's decided to retire additional aircraft.

DL is significantly under-ordered in narrowbodies, unless their intention is to kick the can even farther down the road and create a massive CapEx glut and skyrocketing maintenance costs in the coming years. Then their order books look just fine.

They don't need an order today, but they will need at least one very large order soon, with deliveries starting no more than about 5 years down the road. And that's just to keep their fleet where it is, not grow it. You can't just look at it like they have X amount to replace in the next 5 years. A smart airline will looking at their fleet long-term, such as a rolling 25-year cycle. These days few airliners make it to 30 years of service. The average age is lower. Let's go with 25 for math purposes. Only the most economical and common models tend to make it close to 30, and DL has hundreds that are currently not or never were in both categories (MD-88, MD-90, 717, with the 757 working to join them). About 2/3rds of DL's narrowbody fleet, roughly 530 airplanes by my quick count, is 15 or more years old. It's not hard to do the math. DL has just ~225 narrowbodies on order for delivery through, I believe, 2021. The math doesn't add up. More need to be ordered. And more need to be retired "early". The side benefit to all that would be to start "smoothing out" the ages and not creating another large mess decades later.

I disagree with your math somewhat. I accept your implied premise that a well managed airline should be capable of getting the most bang for the buck out of their capex expenditures by operating their aircraft for the full 25+year useful life. So it means that in your ideal world that airlines fleet should try to consistently maintain an average fleet age in the 12-13 year range (1/2 of 25+ year useful life). Delta seems to think aircraft should on average last 30 years so an average fleet age in the 15 year would be appropriate if they engage in a regular, scheduled, consistent expenditure of capex on their n/b fleet. This then implies an annual replacement cycle of 1/12 th or 1/13th of the fleet under your useful life scenario and 1/15th of the fleet under the 30 year useful life scenario. At Dec 31, 2016 Delta's NB fleet totaled 682 aircraft, with an average age of under 14.5 years (their Wide Body fleet totaled 150 aircraft with an average age of 16.3 years).

So looking at just the narrow body fleet, to maintain the current average age consistently at 14.5 years they need to replace about 45-55 aircraft per year. But at Dec 31, 2016 they had 193 new narrow body aircraft on order and have since added another 50 (30 +10 A321 + 10 737-900ER) to their order book, less the actual deliveries received since January 1. So if they continue to take delivery of 80 nb aircraft per year as they seem to be averaging, their average fleet age will continue to drop by about 6 months each year by 2021, to an average age of about 12.5 years (for NB fleet). Once they get down to an average nb fleet age of 12.5 years taking delivery of 45-55 aircraft per year will keep that average from climbing. Sure their will be some fleet growth but in a mature market such as the USA air pax growth rates of more than GDP growth are not realistic and in fact may be optimistic, as new technologies such as self driving cars take over a portion of shorter haul demand , Does Delta need to place new orders for delivery beginning in 2021? Yes. But I think they can wait until next year and order counter cyclically and maybe get even larger discounts.

Polot wrote:

The thing you are missing is that right now with the A321/739s Delta is taking advantage of quick delivery slots opening up due Neo/Max issues and other customers not being interested because they want the next gen jets. That scenario (quick delivery in meaningful numbers) does not exist with the Neo/Max. DL has to place an order soon (likely by the end next year, early 2019 at the latest) to ensure they have a healthy flow of new planes coming in the future. If they wait too long then they risk getting stuck in a backlog and having to wait even longer to get Max/Neos flowing in to replace aging planes/expand, or pay through the nose (relatively speaking) to try and get quick delivery slots.

As I mentioned earlier, it'd be 5-7 years before DL was interested in taking delivery of the NEO / MAX; no rush in placing an order now, unless they got a deal they couldn't refuse (unlikely).

The A320s/738s/whatever maybe ~25 years now, but if DL orders next year they may not get a steady stream of Neos/Maxs coming in until 2022/2023 (when those planes are hitting 30+ and when their interiors are approaching 7 years old).

If these planes were 25-years-old now, then yes, I'd agree an order would be right around the corner. But they're not . As I've mentioned earlier, the influx of capacity coming into the system within the next ~5 years hints that the aircraft on order will probably begin replacing the older 320 / M90 / 757.

Keith2004 wrote:

Ur right I misspoke, I was thinking about the 100+ 737-900ERs they have on order

41 on order as far as I know, with 79 in operation. 120 all together.

777Mech wrote:

Well, FWIW, the MD-90s have already started to get scheduled for retirement. First two will be gone in December.

Thank you for that information. That's kinda what I figured -- that the current orders are setting the precedent for replacing the MD-90. As I've written before, I've heard from reliable sources that the "orphan" status is making the MD-90 more expensive to keep around than DL had anticipated. Of course, every time I write that our resident 'I worked a semester as an intern mechanic 5 years ago, therefore I know everything about DL' starts a flame war with me, insisting they'll be around until they average 40-years.

mjoelnir wrote:

Keith2004 wrote:

Ur right I misspoke, I was thinking about the 100+ 737-900ERs they have on order

41 on order as far as I know, with 79 in operation. 120 all together.

Actually 120 all together, with the 10 'put options' from Boeing added near the end of Q1 2017.

compensateme wrote:

Polot wrote:

The thing you are missing is that right now with the A321/739s Delta is taking advantage of quick delivery slots opening up due Neo/Max issues and other customers not being interested because they want the next gen jets. That scenario (quick delivery in meaningful numbers) does not exist with the Neo/Max. DL has to place an order soon (likely by the end next year, early 2019 at the latest) to ensure they have a healthy flow of new planes coming in the future. If they wait too long then they risk getting stuck in a backlog and having to wait even longer to get Max/Neos flowing in to replace aging planes/expand, or pay through the nose (relatively speaking) to try and get quick delivery slots.

As I mentioned earlier, it'd be 5-7 years before DL was interested in taking delivery of the NEO / MAX; no rush in placing an order now, unless they got a deal they couldn't refuse (unlikely).

The A320s/738s/whatever maybe ~25 years now, but if DL orders next year they may not get a steady stream of Neos/Maxs coming in until 2022/2023 (when those planes are hitting 30+ and when their interiors are approaching 7 years old).

If these planes were 25-years-old now, then yes, I'd agree an order would be right around the corner. But they're not . As I've mentioned earlier, the influx of capacity coming into the system within the next ~5 years hints that the aircraft on order will probably begin replacing the older 320 / M90 / 757.

True, but nows the time to start planning for the future to ensure you got your ducks in a row. I'm not saying that DL is going to order Neo/Max next week, but they are likely not going to wait 5 years to start making decisions. 2018 is a critical year, especially since it sounds like DL will be drawing down MD-90s earlier than they had previously planned for. That may be fine now as the market appears softer, but DL has to be sure that in the future they are ready to grow if necessary (and if not, they can just replace more planes).

777Mech wrote:

Well, FWIW, the MD-90s have already started to get scheduled for retirement. First two will be gone in December.

Well there you go. There have been speculation that the MD-90s would go sooner rather than later due to availability of spare parts.
Seems like this would be the next fleet to go as aircraft hit overhaul intervals.

Are these being retired to be donor planes for parts?

The A320 and 737 family currently pays well below the 757 rate for pilots at Delta; if any of the nextgen aircraft are added to the fleet new pay rates have to be negotiated. When this happens ALPA will be pushing hard for these aircraft to pay the current, and likely more than the current 757 rates. This will increase the operating expenses of these aircraft so Delta may be delaying. Having said that, there will in fact be a RFP this late fall as both Boeing and Airbus have visited Atlanta recently.

Overall, Delta plans to order 50-60 new aircraft per year for a net gain of roughly 15 single aisle, and 1-2 widebodoes annually. Also, keep in mind that over half of the CS order will likely be converted to the 300 to match 88 and 90 retirements. Their fleet plan is well established and they aren't facing any urgency to place some massive order. As usual Delta will continue to place strategic and well timed orders to match fleet and network changes.

atl100million wrote:

You don't get those kind of discounts if you place large orders for next generation aircraft.

That's not true. You get those kind of discounts and possibly even bigger, by placing such orders at launch.

T773ER wrote:

The A320 and 737 family currently pays well below the 757 rate for pilots at Delta; if any of the nextgen aircraft are added to the fleet new pay rates have to be negotiated. When this happens ALPA will be pushing hard for these aircraft to pay the current, and likely more than the current 757 rates. This will increase the operating expenses of these aircraft so Delta may be delaying. Having said that, there will in fact be a RFP this late fall as both Boeing and Airbus have visited Atlanta recently.

Overall, Delta plans to order 50-60 new aircraft per year for a net gain of roughly 15 single aisle, and 1-2 widebodoes annually. Also, keep in mind that over half of the CS order will likely be converted to the 300 to match 88 and 90 retirements. Their fleet plan is well established and they aren't facing any urgency to place some massive order. As usual Delta will continue to place strategic and well timed orders to match fleet and network changes.

Over the long-term, DL isn't going to grow by "roughly 15 single aisle, and 1-2 widebodies" annually; consider that long-haul ASM have shrunk compared to the level they were several years ago.

Also, it's unlikely DL will order "50-60 new aircraft per year." Instead, DL will likely place one or two large orders covering a couple hundred aircraft, since that will yield the largest discount. But I don't think we'll see this for several years. In the interim, DL's set to take delivery of approximately 300 CSeries, B739, A321, A339 and A359, totaling close to $20B in purchases. Most posters fail to realize how much capacity is coming into the system -- several in this thread have implied it's not enough to cover the M88, when the math shows its enough to retire the M88 and then some (since the net capacity far exceeds expansion). And now it appears that some will be the M90.

LAX772LR wrote:

atl100million wrote:

You don't get those kind of discounts if you place large orders for next generation aircraft.

That's not true. You get those kind of discounts and possibly even bigger, by placing such orders at launch.

I highly doubt the discounts for the launch MAX & NEO orders were in the same ballpark as the discounts DL's receiving on late-model NG & CEO. It's like saying this fall, Apple will have to give the same or bigger discounts to move the iPhone 8 as it would to move remaining stock of the iPhone 6S. Large aircraft discounts are possible to get the go-ahead on new models and/or stimulate poor sales. But they're just not necessary to move updated, more efficient ones.

compensateme wrote:

T773ER wrote:

The A320 and 737 family currently pays well below the 757 rate for pilots at Delta; if any of the nextgen aircraft are added to the fleet new pay rates have to be negotiated. When this happens ALPA will be pushing hard for these aircraft to pay the current, and likely more than the current 757 rates. This will increase the operating expenses of these aircraft so Delta may be delaying. Having said that, there will in fact be a RFP this late fall as both Boeing and Airbus have visited Atlanta recently.

Overall, Delta plans to order 50-60 new aircraft per year for a net gain of roughly 15 single aisle, and 1-2 widebodoes annually. Also, keep in mind that over half of the CS order will likely be converted to the 300 to match 88 and 90 retirements. Their fleet plan is well established and they aren't facing any urgency to place some massive order. As usual Delta will continue to place strategic and well timed orders to match fleet and network changes.

Over the long-term, DL isn't going to grow by "roughly 15 single aisle, and 1-2 widebodies" annually; consider that long-haul ASM have shrunk compared to the level they were several years ago.

Also, it's unlikely DL will order "50-60 new aircraft per year." Instead, DL will likely place one or two large orders covering a couple hundred aircraft, since that will yield the largest discount. But I don't think we'll see this for several years. In the interim, DL's set to take delivery of approximately 300 CSeries, B739, A321, A339 and A359, totaling close to $20B in purchases. Most posters fail to realize how much capacity is coming into the system -- several in this thread have implied it's not enough to cover the M88, when the math shows its enough to retire the M88 and then some (since the net capacity far exceeds expansion). And now it appears that some will be the M90.

LAX772LR wrote:

atl100million wrote:

You don't get those kind of discounts if you place large orders for next generation aircraft.

That's not true. You get those kind of discounts and possibly even bigger, by placing such orders at launch.

I highly doubt the discounts for the launch MAX & NEO orders were in the same ballpark as the discounts DL's receiving on late-model NG & CEO. It's like saying this fall, Apple will have to give the same or bigger discounts to move the iPhone 8 as it would to move remaining stock of the iPhone 6S. Large aircraft discounts are possible to get the go-ahead on new models and/or stimulate poor sales. But they're just not necessary to move updated, more efficient ones.

Delta doesn't make large splashy orders, that's not how they get their discounts. We've already seen 30 new orders this year and it's June so 50 is not unreasonable. As far as growth, 15 NB aircraft a year is very attainable, especially with mainline taking back more and more flying. The domestic market in the US is what's driving growth, look at the most recent numbers. Delta has stated this is where they are focusing for the next several years hence the growing of the NB fleet.

Correction on myself above: about 3/4 of DL's narrowbody fleet is 15+ years old, not 2/3rds.

T773ER wrote:

compensateme wrote:

T773ER wrote:

The A320 and 737 family currently pays well below the 757 rate for pilots at Delta; if any of the nextgen aircraft are added to the fleet new pay rates have to be negotiated. When this happens ALPA will be pushing hard for these aircraft to pay the current, and likely more than the current 757 rates. This will increase the operating expenses of these aircraft so Delta may be delaying. Having said that, there will in fact be a RFP this late fall as both Boeing and Airbus have visited Atlanta recently.

Overall, Delta plans to order 50-60 new aircraft per year for a net gain of roughly 15 single aisle, and 1-2 widebodoes annually. Also, keep in mind that over half of the CS order will likely be converted to the 300 to match 88 and 90 retirements. Their fleet plan is well established and they aren't facing any urgency to place some massive order. As usual Delta will continue to place strategic and well timed orders to match fleet and network changes.

Over the long-term, DL isn't going to grow by "roughly 15 single aisle, and 1-2 widebodies" annually; consider that long-haul ASM have shrunk compared to the level they were several years ago.

Also, it's unlikely DL will order "50-60 new aircraft per year." Instead, DL will likely place one or two large orders covering a couple hundred aircraft, since that will yield the largest discount. But I don't think we'll see this for several years. In the interim, DL's set to take delivery of approximately 300 CSeries, B739, A321, A339 and A359, totaling close to $20B in purchases. Most posters fail to realize how much capacity is coming into the system -- several in this thread have implied it's not enough to cover the M88, when the math shows its enough to retire the M88 and then some (since the net capacity far exceeds expansion). And now it appears that some will be the M90.

LAX772LR wrote:

That's not true. You get those kind of discounts and possibly even bigger, by placing such orders at launch.

I highly doubt the discounts for the launch MAX & NEO orders were in the same ballpark as the discounts DL's receiving on late-model NG & CEO. It's like saying this fall, Apple will have to give the same or bigger discounts to move the iPhone 8 as it would to move remaining stock of the iPhone 6S. Large aircraft discounts are possible to get the go-ahead on new models and/or stimulate poor sales. But they're just not necessary to move updated, more efficient ones.

Delta doesn't make large splashy orders, that's not how they get their discounts. We've already seen 30 new orders this year and it's June so 50 is not unreasonable. As far as growth, 15 NB aircraft a year is very attainable, especially with mainline taking back more and more flying. The domestic market in the US is what's driving growth, look at the most recent numbers. Delta has stated this is where they are focusing for the next several years hence the growing of the NB fleet.

Delta is not opposed to large flashy orders where they make sense. They ordered 75 C series at once. Their original 739 order was for 100 frames. They are just not making large flashy orders now because they are making small opportunistic orders at the moment. The initial Neo/Max order will probably be relatively large and flashy to quickly build up the PW GTR or Leap fleet.

That's a huge A321 fleet! Congrats to both parties involved!

coronado wrote:

Actually 130 all together, with the 10 'put options' from Boeing added near the end of Q1 2017.

Boeing lists DL as having 120 737-900ERs on order (100 ordered on 24-Aug-2011 and 20 on 16-Dec-2015). Nothing listed for DL this year.