Looks like Frontier is adding a crew base at LAS in addition to a bunch of cities being added. Memphis, Madison, Cedar Rapids, and Des Monies were announced today, in addition to already announced Dulles, Sioux Falls, Bismarck, and Indianapolis. Frontier will have 24 cities with 157 weekly flights by August 2017.

https://www.reviewjournal.com/business/ ... crew-base/

They're going head to head with G4 on a lot of these routes. I wonder who will blink first..or if they can coexist. Both are ULCCs going after the same customers who probably have very little brand loyalty.

Southwest operates some of these routes as well but has a hub at LAS so I think they'll weather the storm.

dbo861 wrote:

They're going head to head with G4 on a lot of these routes. I wonder who will blink first..or if they can coexist. Both are ULCCs going after the same customers who probably have very little brand loyalty.

Southwest operates some of these routes as well but has a hub at LAS so I think they'll weather the storm.

I suspect this is a strategy to encourage Allegiant to buy them. Since they are now IPO-ing, the next move is to sell the company, or float the rest of it like they did with NK.

F9 is still throwing darts at dartboard trying to find their nitche.

lavalampluva wrote:

F9 is still throwing darts at dartboard trying to find their nitche.

Given the money they"re making, I'd suggest a niche has been found.

mariner

I've sort of been expecting a PHL-LAS flight, despite the fact that NK is already on it.

Wow! An average of 22 flights per day! Definitely a hub.

TerminalD wrote:

I suspect this is a strategy to encourage Allegiant to buy them. Since they are now IPO-ing, the next move is to sell the company, or float the rest of it like they did with NK.

I'd would say it's more encouraging to NK than G4, as NK also has a crew base in LAS. I don't know if G4 wants the 321s or NEOs.....or anything else F9 has to offer.

lavalampluva wrote:

F9 is still throwing darts at dartboard trying to find their nitche.

Yes, one might say it appears as they are throwing routes at a dart board, but quite a few have stuck in recent times. As Mariner says, they are making money and they have several cities filling that niche: MCO, PHL, DEN, ORD, CLE, CVG and now LAS.

Do not forget, four years ago Frontier was nearly history and now they are making money.

Frontier 14

Let's see, Allegiant 2x weekly from MEM, now F9 at 4x weekly. I'd go with F9 given a choice over which LCC to fly. Frontier coming in at plenty of $49 one way fares.for this route.

Frontier has grown Denver into a daily from less than daily and then upgrading to an A321. Dropped Dulles and DWF when Southwest announced service to Love and BWI. Dropped Atlanta, just not enough non connecting O&D. I think there's a good chance the MEM-LAS goes daily.

I'm wondering when WN stops removing planes from the fleet and actually adds planes if they jump on that highly successful Denver route F9 has cultivated. Same goes for this.

Another thing to watch is how this effects Little Rock's Nonstop to LAS via WN. There is still bleed to there from greater Memphis on this route. Will Southwest add LAS from MEM at the cost of service from LIT?

usairways85 wrote:

I've sort of been expecting a PHL-LAS flight, despite the fact that NK is already on it.

While I admit my internal bias towards wanting new service at PHL - loads for LAS are extremely healthy across AA, WN, and even NK. I don't know about yields. But it makes me optimistic that this may be a route that they are willing to actually go against NK on this one (as opposed to ATL, etc.). Not to mention, the F9 operation at LAS seems to be getting close to about 50% of the size of their DEN operation which is up to 2x.

If you compare the CASM between G4 and F9 on the A320, G4 comes in much lower. However, G4 is still operating MD80s out of Vegas, which have a slightly high CASM then the F9 A320s. G4 is pretty good at finding money, and filling planes, so I wonder if this will just over saturate the markets with seats. I feel like if one of these cities needed more than 2 or 3x weekly, G4 would have been on top of it.

OslPhlWasChi wrote:

usairways85 wrote:

I've sort of been expecting a PHL-LAS flight, despite the fact that NK is already on it.

While I admit my internal bias towards wanting new service at PHL - loads for LAS are extremely healthy across AA, WN, and even NK. I don't know about yields. But it makes me optimistic that this may be a route that they are willing to actually go against NK on this one (as opposed to ATL, etc.). Not to mention, the F9 operation at LAS seems to be getting close to about 50% of the size of their DEN operation which is up to 2x.

I wonder if AA would go nuclear though if both NK and F9 were on PHL-LAS, and if WN would deeply discount it's one nonstop and connection flights, PHL-STL-LAS, etc. Even if that case, I think NK and F9 could co-exist and PHL pax would opt for a ULCC nonstop, over a connection on WN or one of the legacies, when AA's fares for it's nonstops and WN's single nonstop is priced too high.

I'd like to see PHL-DFW on F9 as well, and believe it would work well given F9's strength on the PHL side. F9 needs some more service on the DFW side, with DFW-MCO/LAS/PHL. I'm stating it with bias as a new DFW traveler, but the DFW area is growing and some prefer DFW over DAL in the Metroplex. While F9 in PHL has a good mix of destinations, it's surprising how small F9's footprint is in DFW.

phluser wrote:

OslPhlWasChi wrote:

usairways85 wrote:

I've sort of been expecting a PHL-LAS flight, despite the fact that NK is already on it.

While I admit my internal bias towards wanting new service at PHL - loads for LAS are extremely healthy across AA, WN, and even NK. I don't know about yields. But it makes me optimistic that this may be a route that they are willing to actually go against NK on this one (as opposed to ATL, etc.). Not to mention, the F9 operation at LAS seems to be getting close to about 50% of the size of their DEN operation which is up to 2x.

I wonder if AA would go nuclear though if both NK and F9 were on PHL-LAS, and if WN would deeply discount it's one nonstop and connection flights, PHL-STL-LAS, etc. Even if that case, I think NK and F9 could co-exist and PHL pax would opt for a ULCC nonstop, over a connection on WN or one of the legacies, when AA's fares for it's nonstops and WN's single nonstop is priced too high.

I can't remember what frequency AA has had in the past, but they are down to 4x day this summer. And out of the busy summer months they fluctuate between 2-4 flts/day. And WN recently announced ~2x day. So PHL-LAS is at ~7x day this summer.

I think PHL's relatively high fares generally being stuck with US and now AA along with AA's reduction in seats / focus on RJ's in PHL has enabled F9 to build a robust seasonal network from PHL.

phluser wrote:

I wonder if AA would go nuclear though if both NK and F9 were on PHL-LAS...

I doubt it. PHL-LAS isn't a market AA can ever own. It's a relatively long distance with tons of competing carrier connections at geographically-suited hubs - and PHL-LAS is going to be a heavy leisure market; leisure travelers will tolerate a connection to save on fares.

Wow, 3 airlines operating DSM-LAS.

MIflyer12 wrote:

phluser wrote:

I wonder if AA would go nuclear though if both NK and F9 were on PHL-LAS...

I doubt it. PHL-LAS isn't a market AA can ever own. It's a relatively long distance with tons of competing carrier connections at geographically-suited hubs - and PHL-LAS is going to be a heavy leisure market; leisure travelers will tolerate a connection to save on fares.

WN added EWR-LAS and UA went defensive with $100 fares, and later WN deleted EWR-LAS. It's just a little longer in stage length but similar in many ways where UA owns EWR-LAS. Either UA defends EWR more than AA defends PHL, and/or PHL pax are more open to LCCs/ULCCs and/or EWR pax support the nonstops from UA than PHL pax supporting nonstops from AA.

I agree to some extent about travelers tolerating connections to LAS as it's leisure focused and adult oriented. Down to MCO, however, preference is for nonstops possibly because many are traveling with kids and everything from car seats to strollers for them, and a connection in ATL can be double a trip time.

I guess we will never know what AA and WN do, unless F9 adds service up against AA and WN and NK. My hunch is F9 will do fine and AA won't be all that defensive.

LAS is a great city to be based out of. Rents are pretty decent. As for F9 adding out of LAS? Good for them! 157 weekly departures is pretty awesome!

Yeah i agree LAS will be a popular station. Rent is really affordable even cheap to get a crash pad, many things to do on off days, great nightlife for younger people. I think alot of people will jump for LAS as a crew base.

astaz wrote:

I feel like if one of these cities needed more than 2 or 3x weekly, G4 would have been on top of it.

At least in the case of FSD - LAS I think this is the case. G4 was running more than just a couple of flights a week to LAS. Looks like F9 wants in on the action.

There is some tit-for-tat going on between F9 and G4 (i.e. CVG, TTN)

Frontier 14

I wonder if G4 might open a vacation city in DEN in response. They are adding CVG-DEN this summer and it apparently has been their most successful route launch yet from CVG in terms of seats booked. I could see a bunch of smaller midwest cities to DEN working a few times a week. I know gate space it tight in Concourse A at DEN, but with their low frequency, G4 would probably only need a single gate most of the time.

Frontier network is shaping up like Allegiant a few focus cities but they will operate other routes they think are underserved. LAS, COS(new experiment), MCO, DEN, PHL, ATL, CVG, ORD Frontier has quite a few focus markets then flies underserved markets between cities.

cvgComair wrote:

I wonder if G4 might open a vacation city in DEN in response. They are adding CVG-DEN this summer and it apparently has been their most successful route launch yet from CVG in terms of seats booked. I could see a bunch of smaller midwest cities to DEN working a few times a week. I know gate space it tight in Concourse A at DEN, but with their low frequency, G4 would probably only need a single gate most of the time.

I don't think the ULCCs think this way or run routes for these reasons. They dont operate retaliation or money loosing routes. They will just move onto the next city pair. Allegiant especially has said every route they operate makes money, they dont operate anything to keep frequent flyers or for network reasons.

What you are suggesting is a very Legacy model. For example B6 just announced SLC-FLL. Could we see Delta now interested in SLC-FLL? very possible because they have frequent flyers they want to keep on their planes and they have turf they want to protect. etc. Allegiant, Frontier, Spirit just want routes that print money they will shift quickly. We have seen so much leave DEN but i think we are going to see even more as they shift routes to other focus cities.

slcdeltarumd11 wrote:

I don't think the ULCCs think this way or run routes for these reasons. They dont operate retaliation or money loosing routes. They will just move onto the next city pair. Allegiant especially has said every route they operate makes money, they dont operate anything to keep frequent flyers or for network reasons. What you are suggesting is a very Legacy model.

I was suggesting that some routes from DEN might make money due to the success of CVG-DEN. A G4 "vacation base" could be similar to its VPS station, open seasonally with 8-10 destinations served 2x/week, this would be about 20-25 weekly flights, nothing on the scale of the F9 station in LAS. That said, G4/F9 have been in some route conflicts, CVG being the best example, but TTN and PGD are good examples of cities they entered after each other. They also compete in cities such as CLE/IND/MEM/LAX.

roadpilot wrote:

TerminalD wrote:

I suspect this is a strategy to encourage Allegiant to buy them. Since they are now IPO-ing, the next move is to sell the company, or float the rest of it like they did with NK.

I'd would say it's more encouraging to NK than G4, as NK also has a crew base in LAS. I don't know if G4 wants the 321s or NEOs.....or anything else F9 has to offer.

No merger has ever happened because of crew bases. It's about eliminating competition.

CLT-LAS next? American charges over $400 for the nonstop most of the time and their little CLT station does wonderfully from what I've heard. They could skim the bottom of AA's flights (and maybe lower the costs of the AA ones for the rest of us)

Will F9 add nonstop service from LAS to DFW? There is so much demand for Dallas to Las Vegas flights, and VX is going to be discontinuing DAL-LAS nonstop service. Frontier might be able to fill in the void left by the discontinuation of VX's DAL-LAS nonstop service.