Here is an analysis of EK's A380 movements for the week of May 1, according to amadeus. The left half of the table lists, in chronological order starting at midnight, all the daily A380 arrivals into DXB. The right half (to the right of " => " ) lists the departures from DXB, in chronological order, and I slid that departures listing up to produce the match between arrivals and departures that has the least slack -- the result:

1234567 ek 002 LHR 14:15 - 00:15+dxb => EK 001 DXB 07:45 - 12:15 LHR
1234567 ek 018 MAN 14:00 - 00:15+dxb => EK 015 DXB 08:00 - 12:35 LGW
1234567 ek 186 BCN 15:30 - 00:25+dxb => EK 147 DXB 08:05 - 13:15 AMS
1234567 ek 016 LGW 14:30 - 00:35+dxb => EK 185 DXB 08:15 - 13:25 BCN
1234567 ek 142 MAD 15:20 - 00:45+dxb => EK 151 DXB 08:20 - 13:15 CPH
1234567 ek 373 BKK 21:05 - 00:50+dxb => EK 045 DXB 08:25 - 13:15 FRA
1234567 ek 355 SIN 21:10 - 00:50+dxb => EK 201 DXB 08:30 - 14:15 JFK
1234567 ek 030 LHR 16:55 - 02:50+dxb => EK 055 DXB 08:30 - 13:25 DUS
1234567 ek 319 NRT 22:00 - 04:15+dxb => EK 261 DXB 08:35 - 16:30 GRU
1234567 ek 704 MRU 21:50 - 04:25+dxb => EK 087 DXB 08:40 - 13:20 ZRH
1234567 ek 323 ICN 23:55 - 04:25+dxb => EK 418 DXB 08:45b-s14:35+AKL
1234567 ek 363 CAN 00:15 - 04:25 dxb => EK 049 DXB 08:50 - 13:15 MUC
1234567 ek 385 HKG 21:50bkk04:45+dxb => EK 127 DXB 08:55 - 12:55 VIE
1234567 ek 405 MEL 18:00sin04:50+dxb => EK 215 DXB 08:55 - 13:55 LAX
1234567 ek 343 KUL 01:55 - 04:55 dxb => EK 139 DXB 09:05 - 13:30 PRG
1234567 ek 381 HKG 00:35 - 05:00 dxb => EK 097 DXB 09:10 - 13:25 FCO
1234567 ek 307 PEK 00:40 - 05:00 dxb => EK 225 DXB 09:10 - 14:00 SFO
1234567 ek 367 TPE 23:35 - 05:05+dxb => EK 404 DXB 09:25sin07:50+MEL
1234567 ek 435 AKL 17:10bne05:10+dxb => EK 372 DXB 09:40 - 18:55 BKK
1234567 ek 407 AKL 17:30mel05:10+dxb => EK 029 DXB 09:40 - 14:25 LHR
1234567 ek 421 PER 22:20 - 05:20+dxb => EK 205 DXB 09:45mxp19:00 JFK
1234567 ek 764 JNB 19:10 - 05:25+dxb => EK 763 DXB 10:05 - 16:25 JNB
1234567 ek 449 AKL 20:30 - 05:35+dxb => EK 448 DXB 10:05 - 09:50+AKL
1234567 ek 303 PVG 00:05 - 05:35 dxb => EK 380 DXB 10:05 - 21:20 HKG
1234567 ek 371 BKK 02:20 - 05:35 dxb => EK 703 DXB 10:05 - 16:40 MRU
1234567 ek 413 CHC 18:05syd05:40+dxb => EK 406 DXB 10:15mel12:45+AKL
1234567 ek 032 LHR 19:50 - 05:50+dxb => EK 412 DXB 10:15syd12:55+CHC
1234567 ek 058 DUS 21:30 - 05:55+dxb => EK 362 DXB 10:20 - 22:05 CAN
1234567 ek 501 BOM 04:30 - 06:00 dxb => EK 342 DXB 10:25 - 21:50 KUL
1234567 ek 419 AKL 15:15s-b06:05+dxb => EK 434 DXB 10:35 - 13:25+AKL
1234567 ek 092 MXP 22:20 - 06:25+dxb => EK 031 DXB 11:30 - 16:10 LHR
1234567 ek 086 ZRH 22:15 - 06:25+dxb => EK 370 DXB 11:45 - 21:05 BKK
1234567 ek 052 MUC 22:35 - 06:25+dxb => EK 003 DXB 14:15 - 18:40 LHR
1234567 ek 150 AMS 21:50 - 06:30+dxb => EK 019 DXB 14:35 - 19:20 MAN
1234567 ek 004 LHR 20:40 - 06:35+dxb => EK 057 DXB 14:35 - 19:30 DUS
1234567 ek 048 FRA 22:20 - 06:40+dxb => EK 047 DXB 14:40 - 19:25 FRA
1234567 ek 020 MAN 21:15 - 07:25+dxb => EK 149 DXB 14:45 - 20:00 AMS
1234567 ek 188 BCN 22:40 - 07:35+dxb => EK 857 DXB 14:55 - 15:45 KWI
1234567 ek 010 LGW 21:45 - 07:35+dxb => EK 009 DXB 14:55 - 19:45 LGW
1234567 ek 204 JFK 11:20 - 07:50+dxb => EK 037 DXB 14:55 - 19:40 BHX
1234567 ek 038 BHX 21:40 - 07:55+dxb => EK 207 DXB 15:00 - 20:45 JFK
1234567 ek 232 IAD 10:55 - 08:05+dxb => EK 085 DXB 15:35 - 20:20 ZRH
1234567 ek 006 LHR 22:15 - 08:05+dxb => EK 005 DXB 15:45 - 20:15 LHR
1234567 ek 375 BKK 09:30 - 13:00 dxb => EK 091 DXB 15:45 - 20:30 MXP
1234567 ek 208 JFK 16:30 - 13:20+dxb => EK 187 DXB 15:45 - 20:55 BCN
1234567 ek 415 SYD 06:00 - 14:10 dxb => EK 051 DXB 16:30 - 20:50 MUC
1234567 ek 008 LHR 09:05 - 19:10 dxb => EK 500 DXB 21:55 - 02:30+BOM
1234567 ek 216 LAX 16:40 - 19:30+dxb => EK 414 DXB 02:15 - 22:05 SYD
1234567 ek 202 JFK 23:00 - 19:45+dxb => EK 231 DXB 02:20 - 08:40 IAD
1234567 ek 226 SFO 16:45 - 19:25+dxb => EK 374 DXB 22:30 - 07:35+BKK
1234567 ek 022 MAN 10:00 - 20:00 dxb => EK 007 DXB 02:30 - 07:05 LHR
1234567 ek 858 KWI 17:40 - 20:25 dxb => EK 318 DXB 02:40 - 17:30 NRT
1234567 ek 206 JFK 22:20mxp22:10+dxb => EK 420 DXB 02:45 - 17:35 PER
1234567 ek 347 KUL 19:20 - 22:20 dxb => EK 203 DXB 02:50 - 08:50 JFK
1234567 ek 702 MRU 16:20 - 22:55 dxb => EK 384 DXB 03:00bkk18:05 HKG
1234567 ek 262 GRU 01:25 - 22:55 dxb => EK 021 DXB 03:00 - 07:50 MAN
1234567 ek 128 VIE 15:30 - 23:05 dxb => EK 302 DXB 03:15 - 15:30 PVG
1234567 ek 383 HKG 18:25 - 23:15 dxb => EK 382 DXB 03:15 - 14:40 HKG
1234567 ek 098 FCO 15:25 - 23:25 dxb => EK 354 DXB 03:30 - 15:00 SIN
1234567 ek 046 FRA 15:15 - 23:35 dxb => EK 322 DXB 03:40 - 16:55 ICN
1234567 ek 050 MUC 15:40 - 23:45 dxb => EK 346 DXB 03:50 - 15:05 KUL
1234567 ek 088 ZRH 15:25 - 23:45 dxb => EK 306 DXB 03:55 - 15:25 PEK
1234567 ek 140 PRG 15:55 - 23:50 dxb => EK 701 DXB 03:55 - 10:30 MRU
1234567 ek 152 CPH 15:35 - 23:55 dxb => EK 366 DXB 04:35 - 16:50 TPE
1234567 ek 056 DUS 15:25 - 23:55 dxb => EK 017 DXB 07:25 - 12:05 MAN
1234567 ek 148 AMS 15:20 - 23:59 dxb => EK 141 DXB 07:35 - 13:25 MAD

for a total of 66 pairs. All these flights are programmed to operate daily, and they account for all the daily A380 flights. The A380 flights operating non-daily that week are:
12----- EK 011 DXB 02:45 - 07:20 LGW returning EK 012 LGW 10:00 - 20:00 DXB
12----- EK 376 DXB 03:40 - 12:50 BKK returning EK 377 BKK 15:40 - 19:00 DXB
1-3-5-- EK 241 DXB 09:55 - 15:55 YYZ returning EK 242 YYZ 21:40 - 18:35+DXB
and I will ignore them in the rest of the analysis.

If you now take the 66 flight pairs above sequentially, and try to daisy chain them into the operational plan with the least slack, you find that

one frame can operate the first flight pair:
1234567 ek 002 LHR 14:15 - 00:15+dxb - EK 001 DXB 07:45 - 12:15 LHR

an additional 47 frames can operate the next flight pair in a sequence with 38 others as follows:
1234567 ek 018 MAN 14:00 - 00:15+dxb - EK 015 DXB 08:00 - 12:35 LGW
1234567 ek 016 LGW 14:30 - 00:35+dxb - EK 185 DXB 08:15 - 13:25 BCN
1234567 ek 186 BCN 15:30 - 00:25+dxb - EK 147 DXB 08:05 - 13:15 AMS
1234567 ek 148 AMS 15:20 - 23:59 dxb - EK 141 DXB 07:35 - 13:25 MAD
1234567 ek 142 MAD 15:20 - 00:45+dxb - EK 151 DXB 08:20 - 13:15 CPH
1234567 ek 152 CPH 15:35 - 23:55 dxb - EK 366 DXB 04:35 - 16:50 TPE
1234567 ek 367 TPE 23:35 - 05:05+dxb - EK 404 DXB 09:25sin07:50+MEL
1234567 ek 405 MEL 18:00sin04:50+dxb - EK 215 DXB 08:55 - 13:55 LAX
1234567 ek 216 LAX 16:40 - 19:30+dxb - EK 414 DXB 02:15 - 22:05 SYD
1234567 ek 415 SYD 06:00 - 14:10 dxb - EK 051 DXB 16:30 - 20:50 MUC
1234567 ek 052 MUC 22:35 - 06:25+dxb - EK 003 DXB 14:15 - 18:40 LHR
1234567 ek 004 LHR 20:40 - 06:35+dxb - EK 057 DXB 14:35 - 19:30 DUS
1234567 ek 058 DUS 21:30 - 05:55+dxb - EK 362 DXB 10:20 - 22:05 CAN
1234567 ek 363 CAN 00:15 - 04:25 dxb - EK 049 DXB 08:50 - 13:15 MUC
1234567 ek 050 MUC 15:40 - 23:45 dxb - EK 346 DXB 03:50 - 15:05 KUL
1234567 ek 347 KUL 19:20 - 22:20 dxb - EK 203 DXB 02:50 - 08:50 JFK
1234567 ek 204 JFK 11:20 - 07:50+dxb - EK 037 DXB 14:55 - 19:40 BHX
1234567 ek 038 BHX 21:40 - 07:55+dxb - EK 207 DXB 15:00 - 20:45 JFK
1234567 ek 202 JFK 23:00 - 19:45+dxb - EK 231 DXB 02:20 - 08:40 IAD
1234567 ek 232 IAD 10:55 - 08:05+dxb - EK 085 DXB 15:35 - 20:20 ZRH
1234567 ek 086 ZRH 22:15 - 06:25+dxb - EK 370 DXB 11:45 - 21:05 BKK
1234567 ek 371 BKK 02:20 - 05:35 dxb - EK 703 DXB 10:05 - 16:40 MRU
1234567 ek 704 MRU 21:50 - 04:25+dxb - EK 087 DXB 08:40 - 13:20 ZRH
1234567 ek 088 ZRH 15:25 - 23:45 dxb - EK 306 DXB 03:55 - 15:25 PEK
1234567 ek 307 PEK 00:40 - 05:00 dxb - EK 225 DXB 09:10 - 14:00 SFO
1234567 ek 226 SFO 16:45 - 19:25+dxb - EK 374 DXB 22:30 - 07:35+BKK
1234567 ek 375 BKK 09:30 - 13:00 dxb - EK 091 DXB 15:45 - 20:30 MXP
1234567 ek 092 MXP 22:20 - 06:25+dxb - EK 031 DXB 11:30 - 16:10 LHR
1234567 ek 032 LHR 19:50 - 05:50+dxb - EK 412 DXB 10:15syd12:55+CHC
1234567 ek 413 CHC 18:05syd05:40+dxb - EK 406 DXB 10:15mel12:45+AKL
1234567 ek 435 AKL 17:10bne05:10+dxb - EK 372 DXB 09:40 - 18:55 BKK
1234567 ek 373 BKK 21:05 - 00:50+dxb - EK 045 DXB 08:25 - 13:15 FRA
1234567 ek 046 FRA 15:15 - 23:35 dxb - EK 322 DXB 03:40 - 16:55 ICN
1234567 ek 323 ICN 23:55 - 04:25+dxb - EK 418 DXB 08:45b-s14:35+AKL
1234567 ek 449 AKL 20:30 - 05:35+dxb - EK 448 DXB 10:05 - 09:50+AKL
1234567 ek 419 AKL 15:15s-b06:05+dxb - EK 434 DXB 10:35 - 13:25+AKL
1234567 ek 407 AKL 17:30mel05:10+dxb - EK 029 DXB 09:40 - 14:25 LHR
1234567 ek 030 LHR 16:55 - 02:50+dxb - EK 055 DXB 08:30 - 13:25 DUS
1234567 ek 056 DUS 15:25 - 23:55 dxb - EK 017 DXB 07:25 - 12:05 MAN

an additional 17 frames can operate the following 17 flight-pair sequence:
1234567 ek 355 SIN 21:10 - 00:50+dxb - EK 201 DXB 08:30 - 14:15 JFK
1234567 ek 208 JFK 16:30 - 13:20+dxb - EK 187 DXB 15:45 - 20:55 BCN
1234567 ek 188 BCN 22:40 - 07:35+dxb - EK 857 DXB 14:55 - 15:45 KWI
1234567 ek 858 KWI 17:40 - 20:25 dxb - EK 318 DXB 02:40 - 17:30 NRT
1234567 ek 319 NRT 22:00 - 04:15+dxb - EK 261 DXB 08:35 - 16:30 GRU
1234567 ek 262 GRU 01:25 - 22:55 dxb - EK 021 DXB 03:00 - 07:50 MAN
1234567 ek 022 MAN 10:00 - 20:00 dxb - EK 007 DXB 02:30 - 07:05 LHR
1234567 ek 008 LHR 09:05 - 19:10 dxb - EK 500 DXB 21:55 - 02:30+BOM
1234567 ek 501 BOM 04:30 - 06:00 dxb - EK 342 DXB 10:25 - 21:50 KUL
1234567 ek 343 KUL 01:55 - 04:55 dxb - EK 139 DXB 09:05 - 13:30 PRG
1234567 ek 140 PRG 15:55 - 23:50 dxb - EK 701 DXB 03:55 - 10:30 MRU
1234567 ek 702 MRU 16:20 - 22:55 dxb - EK 384 DXB 03:00bkk18:05 HKG
1234567 ek 385 HKG 21:50bkk04:45+dxb - EK 127 DXB 08:55 - 12:55 VIE
1234567 ek 128 VIE 15:30 - 23:05 dxb - EK 302 DXB 03:15 - 15:30 PVG
1234567 ek 303 PVG 00:05 - 05:35 dxb - EK 380 DXB 10:05 - 21:20 HKG
1234567 ek 381 HKG 00:35 - 05:00 dxb - EK 097 DXB 09:10 - 13:25 FCO
1234567 ek 098 FCO 15:25 - 23:25 dxb - EK 354 DXB 03:30 - 15:00 SIN

an additional 3 frames can operate the following 2 flight pairs:
1234567 ek 421 PER 22:20 - 05:20+dxb - EK 205 DXB 09:45mxp19:00 JFK
1234567 ek 206 JFK 22:20mxp22:10+dxb - EK 420 DXB 02:45 - 17:35 PER

an additional frame can operate the following flight pair:
1234567 ek 764 JNB 19:10 - 05:25+dxb - EK 763 DXB 10:05 - 16:25 JNB

an additional 2 frames can operate the following 2 flight pairs:
1234567 ek 150 AMS 21:50 - 06:30+dxb - EK 019 DXB 14:35 - 19:20 MAN
1234567 ek 020 MAN 21:15 - 07:25+dxb - EK 149 DXB 14:45 - 20:00 AMS

an additional frame can operate the following flight pair:
1234567 ek 048 FRA 22:20 - 06:40+dxb - EK 047 DXB 14:40 - 19:25 FRA

an additional frame can operate the following flight pair:
1234567 ek 010 LGW 21:45 - 07:35+dxb - EK 009 DXB 14:55 - 19:45 LGW

an additional frame can operate the following flight pair:
1234567 ek 006 LHR 22:15 - 08:05+dxb - EK 005 DXB 15:45 - 20:15 LHR

and finally an additional frame can operate the following flight pair:
1234567 ek 383 HKG 18:25 - 23:15 dxb - EK 382 DXB 03:15 - 14:40 HKG

In summary, the entire A380 program can theoretically be executed with 75 frames.
With 75 frames, the average ground time in DXB would be 4.7 hours per frame per day, and the average utilization time would be 16.23 hours per frame per day.
This assumes a perfect operation with no significant delays etc, which is not realistic, but it is noteworthy that EK seems able to arrange its schedule to enable the theoretical operation with such little down time, in spite of slot-restricted destinations, curfews, and the demands of high-yield travelers for specific schedules that can require long unproductive time.

Throwing 4 additional frames into the operational mix increases the average ground time in DXB to 5.67 hours and decreases the utilization to 15.41 hours.

Going all the way up to 16 additional frames (so 91 total) increases the average ground time in DXB to 8.09 hours and decreases the utilization to 13.38 hours. This number, "91", seems appropriate to represent the current fleet given that I ignored the YYZ flight (which takes up one frame) and the two rotations which are scheduled to operate on monday and tuesday only, according to amadeus.

You throw another two frames in and spread the above operation on a total of 93 frames and the average utilization stays above 13 hours (barely, at 13.09 hours). I am not saying that this is optimal, but it would still represent a very respectable operation, and under ideal circumstances could be executed with 75 frames i.e. you would then expect to see 18 frames parked at DXB that entire week. It may well be that EK cannot find a more productive way to use these frames, or to use all of them. But it is still not bad.

I plan to do a similar calculation at the beginning of the 1st quarter of fy18.

Here is a brief visual representation:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OfQgIXuCU44

fodar wrote:

In summary, the entire A380 program can theoretically be executed with 75 frames.

... Plus standby aircraft, plus aircraft undergoing maintenance

Then also think about Emirates uses 3 different layouts on the A380 thats makes it a little more complicated as some routes is 2 class other is shorter 3 class and other again use for long 3 class

fessor wrote:

Then also think about Emirates uses 3 different layouts on the A380 thats makes it a little more complicated as some routes is 2 class other is shorter 3 class and other again use for long 3 class

Very true. I did not account for this in looking for the tightest 75-frame operation. But the estimated 13.09 hours/day average utilization rate per frame for 93 frames is still good. So is the verification that this operation is still consistent with having up to 18 frames parked all week.

Nice work Fodar, I can tell you that at the moment, as of yesterday in fact the plan if you would call it that is that based on a 30-38hr rotation between 9-12 airframes are taken off line ops at any one time. There are typically 2-3 380 frames in maintenance at any one time so your numbers would tie in with this.
Please be aware that there are a number of posters on here who will take you to task regarding your analysis and who will most likely demand that you provide verification in some form or another, ignore their churlish requests as they can't stand the reality that EK have currently got too much capacity.

fodar wrote:

You throw another two frames in and spread the above operation on a total of 93 frames and the average utilization stays above 13 hours (barely, at 13.09 hours). I am not saying that this is optimal, but it would still represent a very respectable operation

Thanks for spending the time to do the analysis. It shows that EK have higher utilisation in their A380 fleet than the industry average - as you say, very respectable.

fodar wrote:

under ideal circumstances could be executed with 75 frames i.e. you would then expect to see 18 frames parked at DXB that entire week

Even under ideal circumstances, it would be impossible for EK to operate those schedules with 75 frames. Just accounting for scheduled maintenance would require significantly more than that. Add in the non-"ideal" factors such as curfews at many destinations, the need for arrival/departure banks, slack required to recover from technical, weather, medical & other issues, cabin refits, etc. etc. and those additional frames are soon used up.

emiratesdriver wrote:

Please be aware that there are a number of posters on here who will take you to task regarding your analysis and who will most likely demand that you provide verification in some form or another

Why would anyone ask for more verification than the detailed data he has already provided?

emiratesdriver wrote:

as they can't stand the reality that EK have currently got too much capacity.

Really? The analysis presented shows that EK are using their A380 frames for more time each day than the industry average for international operations. If anything, it proves that EK have slightly less capacity than the majority of other airlines require for similar operations.

speedbored wrote:

Really? The analysis presented shows that EK are using their A380 frames for more time each day than the industry average for international operations. If anything, it proves that EK have slightly less capacity than the majority of other airlines require for similar operations.

And, lets not forget that EK continues to expand A380 operations to new destinations as well as replacing other aircraft on existing routes (as with MAD, announced this week, going double daily A380).

The bigger picture, which we don't know is the trend, is the utilization going up or down. With the reduction in deliveries in 2017 I expect it may increase a little.

slinky09 wrote:

speedbored wrote:

Really? The analysis presented shows that EK are using their A380 frames for more time each day than the industry average for international operations. If anything, it proves that EK have slightly less capacity than the majority of other airlines require for similar operations.

And, lets not forget that EK continues to expand A380 operations to new destinations as well as replacing other aircraft on existing routes (as with MAD, announced this week, going double daily A380).

And also MEL with go triple daily A380's, 2 non stop the other via SIN

log0008 wrote:

The bigger picture, which we don't know is the trend, is the utilization going up or down. With the reduction in deliveries in 2017 I expect it may increase a little.

In addition to comparisons in time, it may be useful to compare with other operators. No one has an operation that is anywhere near the size of EK's, but here is what LH is doing:

LH 797 HKG 23:05 - 05:20+FRA => LH 440 FRA 10:00 - 13:45 IAH
LH 401 JFK 16:10 - 05:40+FRA => LH 456 FRA 10:15 - 12:55 LAX
LH 779 SIN 23:40 - 06:20+FRA => LH 454 FRA 10:30 - 12:55 SFO
LH 761 DEL 02:45 - 07:30 FRA => LH 462 FRA 10:45 - 14:50 MIA
LH 463 MIA 16:55 - 08:00+FRA => LH 400 FRA 11:00 - 13:30 JFK
LH 441 IAH 15:50 - 08:35+FRA => LH 760 FRA 13:45 - 00:55+DEL
LH 455 SFO 15:00 - 11:00+FRA => LH 720 FRA 17:10 - 08:30+PEK
LH 457 LAX 15:20 - 11:20+FRA => LH 728 FRA 17:15 - 09:55+PVG
LH 721 PEK 10:30 - 14:45 FRA => LH 778 FRA 21:55 - 16:15+SIN
LH 729 PVG 13:15 - 18:55 FRA => LH 796 FRA 22:10 - 15:25+HKG

This can theoretically be executed with a minimum of 12 frames, which would achieve an average utilization of 17.25 hours / day / frame, with an average ground time in FRA of 3.94 hours.
With the 14 frames that LH actually has, the average utilization drops to 14.79 hours/day (and you could theoretically see up to 2 parked A380s in FRA).

If one were to add frames one at a time, the utilization would not drop below 13 hours (to compare with EK) until you have added 4 frames to the minimum 12. And with this hypothetical fleet of 16 A380s operating the program above, the utilization would be 12.94 hours. It is not a satisfactory comparison with EK because of the huge difference in the size of the two operations, but it gives a very rough idea of the relative efficiency of the two, such as they are at the moment.

fodar wrote:

to compare with other operators

Another case for comparison, that of SQ:

For the week of May 1, the program is
1234567 SQ 345 ZRH 11:45 - 05:55+SIN => SQ 802 SIN 08:40 - 14:40 PEK
1234567 SQ 403 DEL 21:55 - 06:10+SIN => SQ 860 SIN 08:40 - 12:40 HKG
1234567 SQ 335 CDG 12:00 - 06:50+SIN => SQ 308 SIN 09:00 - 15:40 LHR
1234567 SQ 317 LHR 11:25 - 07:30+SIN => SQ 830 SIN 09:45 - 15:05 PVG
1234567 SQ 423 BOM 23:40 - 07:40+SIN => SQ 406 SIN 17:10 - 20:10 DEL
1234567 SQ 25 JFK 20:55fra07:50*SIN => SQ 424 SIN 19:00 - 21:50 BOM
1234567 SQ 232 SYD 11:00 - 17:30 SIN => SQ 221 SIN 20:15 - 05:55+SYD
1234567 SQ 321 LHR 22:05 - 18:10+SIN => SQ 322 SIN 23:30 - 05:55+LHR
1234567 SQ 863 HKG 14:25 - 18:20 SIN => SQ 26 SIN 23:55fra11:10+JFK
1234567 SQ 222 SYD 15:00 - 21:20 SIN => SQ 336 SIN 00:10 - 07:30 CDG
1234567 SQ 833 PVG 16:50 - 22:20 SIN => SQ 231 SIN 00:45 - 10:25 SYD
1234567 SQ 807 PEK 16:35 - 23:00 SIN => SQ 346 SIN 01:25 - 08:15 ZRH

--34-67 SQ 618 SIN 01:40 - 09:20 KIX
--34-67 SQ 619 KIX 10:55 - 16:40 SIN
(and the four-day-only KIX flights cannot be ignored in this case).

It is straightforward to verify that a minimum of 15 frames are required for this program. This theoretical minimum would result in an average utilization rate of 16.2 hours / day. With the 19 frames that SQ has, the utilization rate drops to 12.79 hours / day / frame (and up to 4 frames parked at any one time).

The week of 1 May is a little exceptional for SQ, because it is the first week that the formerly-A380 Melbourne rotation SQ 217/218 switches to the A359, along with the replacement of the usual A330 on SQ 618/619 on tuesday, wed, sat and sun.

In spite of the difference in size, EK's utilization is a little better than SQ's, but lower than LH's. Then again, the average utilization is not the only measure of the efficiency of an operation, especially when estimated over a single week which could be exceptional for various reasons.

@fodar

Excellent analysis.

BobPatterson did an analysis on EK fleet usage few weeks back.
viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1358447

Can you analyze frame rotation for one day.

Not criticizing anything (this is a lot of work!), but I am surprised not to see any CDG flight, although I think there are multiple daily flights.

dtw2hyd wrote:

Can you analyze frame rotation for one day?

The averages that i computed are one-day averages. The calculation is based on a week's program because the program may be different on different days (but does repeat every week). In the case of EK, the handful of day-by-day changes was not a big deal, because there were only three flights that are not scheduled to operate ever day (the toronto flight, and gatwick and bangkok each with two weekly flights in addition to the daily rotations), a small number relative to the 66 daily flights. For SQ the proportion was much bigger, and significant. I have no information about how they actually plan to operate which frame on which flight, so i can only calculate daily averages based on an entire week's program.

It is interesting that the relative difference between the actual number of frames and the absolute minimum number required for the programmed schedule, for EK and SQ, namely
(93 - 75) / 75 = 24% for EK,
(19 - 15) / 15 = 27% for SQ,
is similar, and produces a similar average utilization. But LH is managing an apparently tighter operation, with only an additional
(14 - 12) / 12 = 17% for spares/maintenance.

I don't know if I missed them, but I also could not locate EK A380 services to JED, DOH & CMN

fodar wrote:

But LH is managing an apparently tighter operation, with only an additional
(14 - 12) / 12 = 17% for spares/maintenance.

I doubt that LH are running a tighter operation, especially given the significant curfews at their main hub. As LH has a more diverse fleet than most other airlines, it is more likely that they are rotating in other aircraft types (e.g. 747-8) to cover periods of maintenance.

We also need to bear in mind that when taking a very small (one day / one week) snapshot of airlines with relatively small fleets (of A380s), such as SQ or LH (i.e. everyone except EK), there will be very significant differences in apparent utilisation rates, depending on whether you have picked a day/week when a frame is in maintenance, or not.

Theseus wrote:

I am surprised not to see any CDG flight, although I think there are multiple daily flights.

Great catch, this was a very serious omission on my part.
EK 71/72, 73/74, and 75/76 were indeed missing.
I have now inserted them, along with the daily CMN rotation.
I also re-checked that neither JED nor DOH are showing any A380 flights for the week of 1 May (though I do remember that JED had one 380 daily when i first started compiling the data, but that reverted to 77W in the space of a couple of days).
I re-did the chains, which come out to be:

44 A380s to do:
1234567 ek 002 LHR 14:15 - 00:15+dxb => EK 141 DXB 07:35 - 13:25 MAD
1234567 ek 142 MAD 15:20 - 00:45+dxb => EK 073 DXB 08:20 - 13:30 CDG
1234567 ek 074 CDG 15:35 - 00:20+dxb => EK 015 DXB 08:00 - 12:35 LGW
1234567 ek 016 LGW 14:30 - 00:35+dxb => EK 185 DXB 08:15 - 13:25 BCN
1234567 ek 186 BCN 15:30 - 00:25+dxb => EK 147 DXB 08:05 - 13:15 AMS
1234567 ek 148 AMS 15:20 - 23:59 dxb => EK 751 DXB 07:25 - 12:55 CMN
1234567 ek 752 CMN 14:55 - 01:25+dxb => EK 201 DXB 08:30 - 14:15 JFK
1234567 ek 208 JFK 16:30 - 13:20+dxb => EK 187 DXB 15:45 - 20:55 BCN
1234567 ek 188 BCN 22:40 - 07:35+dxb => EK 857 DXB 14:55 - 15:45 KWI
1234567 ek 858 KWI 17:40 - 20:25 dxb => EK 420 DXB 02:45 - 17:35 PER
1234567 ek 421 PER 22:20 - 05:20+dxb => EK 205 DXB 09:45mxp19:00 JFK
1234567 ek 206 JFK 22:20mxp22:10+dxb => EK 203 DXB 02:50 - 08:50 JFK
1234567 ek 204 JFK 11:20 - 07:50+dxb => EK 037 DXB 14:55 - 19:40 BHX
1234567 ek 038 BHX 21:40 - 07:55+dxb => EK 207 DXB 15:00 - 20:45 JFK
1234567 ek 202 JFK 23:00 - 19:45+dxb => EK 231 DXB 02:20 - 08:40 IAD
1234567 ek 232 IAD 10:55 - 08:05+dxb => EK 085 DXB 15:35 - 20:20 ZRH
1234567 ek 086 ZRH 22:15 - 06:25+dxb => EK 370 DXB 11:45 - 21:05 BKK
1234567 ek 371 BKK 02:20 - 05:35 dxb => EK 703 DXB 10:05 - 16:40 MRU
1234567 ek 704 MRU 21:50 - 04:25+dxb => EK 087 DXB 08:40 - 13:20 ZRH
1234567 ek 088 ZRH 15:25 - 23:45 dxb => EK 701 DXB 03:55 - 10:30 MRU
1234567 ek 702 MRU 16:20 - 22:55 dxb => EK 021 DXB 03:00 - 07:50 MAN
1234567 ek 022 MAN 10:00 - 20:00 dxb => EK 007 DXB 02:30 - 07:05 LHR
1234567 ek 008 LHR 09:05 - 19:10 dxb => EK 500 DXB 21:55 - 02:30+BOM
1234567 ek 501 BOM 04:30 - 06:00 dxb => EK 342 DXB 10:25 - 21:50 KUL
1234567 ek 343 KUL 01:55 - 04:55 dxb => EK 139 DXB 09:05 - 13:30 PRG
1234567 ek 140 PRG 15:55 - 23:50 dxb => EK 071 DXB 04:05 - 09:25 CDG
1234567 ek 072 CDG 11:25 - 20:00 dxb => EK 318 DXB 02:40 - 17:30 NRT
1234567 ek 319 NRT 22:00 - 04:15+dxb => EK 261 DXB 08:35 - 16:30 GRU
1234567 ek 262 GRU 01:25 - 22:55 dxb => EK 302 DXB 03:15 - 15:30 PVG
1234567 ek 303 PVG 00:05 - 05:35 dxb => EK 380 DXB 10:05 - 21:20 HKG
1234567 ek 381 HKG 00:35 - 05:00 dxb => EK 097 DXB 09:10 - 13:25 FCO
1234567 ek 098 FCO 15:25 - 23:25 dxb => EK 322 DXB 03:40 - 16:55 ICN
1234567 ek 323 ICN 23:55 - 04:25+dxb => EK 418 DXB 08:45b-s14:35+AKL
1234567 ek 449 AKL 20:30 - 05:35+dxb => EK 448 DXB 10:05 - 09:50+AKL
1234567 ek 419 AKL 15:15s-b06:05+dxb => EK 434 DXB 10:35 - 13:25+AKL
1234567 ek 407 AKL 17:30mel05:10+dxb => EK 029 DXB 09:40 - 14:25 LHR
1234567 ek 030 LHR 16:55 - 02:50+dxb => EK 055 DXB 08:30 - 13:25 DUS
1234567 ek 056 DUS 15:25 - 23:55 dxb => EK 017 DXB 07:25 - 12:05 MAN
1234567 ek 018 MAN 14:00 - 00:15+dxb => EK 001 DXB 07:45 - 12:15 LHR

24 additional A380s to do:
1234567 ek 373 BKK 21:05 - 00:50+dxb => EK 151 DXB 08:20 - 13:15 CPH
1234567 ek 152 CPH 15:35 - 23:55 dxb => EK 366 DXB 04:35 - 16:50 TPE
1234567 ek 367 TPE 23:35 - 05:05+dxb => EK 404 DXB 09:25sin07:50+MEL
1234567 ek 405 MEL 18:00sin04:50+dxb => EK 215 DXB 08:55 - 13:55 LAX
1234567 ek 216 LAX 16:40 - 19:30+dxb => EK 414 DXB 02:15 - 22:05 SYD
1234567 ek 415 SYD 06:00 - 14:10 dxb => EK 051 DXB 16:30 - 20:50 MUC
1234567 ek 052 MUC 22:35 - 06:25+dxb => EK 003 DXB 14:15 - 18:40 LHR
1234567 ek 004 LHR 20:40 - 06:35+dxb => EK 047 DXB 14:40 - 19:25 FRA
1234567 ek 048 FRA 22:20 - 06:40+dxb => EK 149 DXB 14:45 - 20:00 AMS
1234567 ek 150 AMS 21:50 - 06:30+dxb => EK 057 DXB 14:35 - 19:30 DUS
1234567 ek 058 DUS 21:30 - 05:55+dxb => EK 362 DXB 10:20 - 22:05 CAN
1234567 ek 363 CAN 00:15 - 04:25 dxb => EK 049 DXB 08:50 - 13:15 MUC
1234567 ek 050 MUC 15:40 - 23:45 dxb => EK 306 DXB 03:55 - 15:25 PEK
1234567 ek 307 PEK 00:40 - 05:00 dxb => EK 225 DXB 09:10 - 14:00 SFO
1234567 ek 226 SFO 16:45 - 19:25+dxb => EK 374 DXB 22:30 - 07:35+BKK
1234567 ek 375 BKK 09:30 - 13:00 dxb => EK 091 DXB 15:45 - 20:30 MXP
1234567 ek 092 MXP 22:20 - 06:25+dxb => EK 031 DXB 11:30 - 16:10 LHR
1234567 ek 032 LHR 19:50 - 05:50+dxb => EK 412 DXB 10:15syd12:55+CHC
1234567 ek 413 CHC 18:05syd05:40+dxb => EK 406 DXB 10:15mel12:45+AKL
1234567 ek 435 AKL 17:10bne05:10+dxb => EK 372 DXB 09:40 - 18:55 BKK

6 additional A380s to do:
1234567 ek 355 SIN 21:10 - 00:50+dxb => EK 045 DXB 08:25 - 13:15 FRA
1234567 ek 046 FRA 15:15 - 23:35 dxb => EK 346 DXB 03:50 - 15:05 KUL
1234567 ek 347 KUL 19:20 - 22:20 dxb => EK 384 DXB 03:00bkk18:05 HKG
1234567 ek 385 HKG 21:50bkk04:45+dxb => EK 127 DXB 08:55 - 12:55 VIE
1234567 ek 128 VIE 15:30 - 23:05 dxb => EK 382 DXB 03:15 - 14:40 HKG
1234567 ek 383 HKG 18:25 - 23:15 dxb => EK 354 DXB 03:30 - 15:00 SIN

1 additional A380 to do:
1234567 ek 764 JNB 19:10 - 05:25+dxb => EK 763 DXB 10:05 - 16:25 JNB

2 additional A380s to do:
1234567 ek 076 CDG 21:50 - 06:30+dxb => EK 019 DXB 14:35 - 19:20 MAN
1234567 ek 020 MAN 21:15 - 07:25+dxb => EK 075 DXB 14:50 - 20:05 CDG

2 additional A380s to do:
1234567 ek 010 LGW 21:45 - 07:35+dxb => EK 009 DXB 14:55 - 19:45 LGW
1234567 ek 006 LHR 22:15 - 08:05+dxb => EK 005 DXB 15:45 - 20:15 LHR

The new absolute minimum is 79 frames instead of 75 (which makes sense, i added 4 rotations with an average block time of about 7 hours each way).
The utilization rates are now:
16.14 hours assuming the absolute minimum 79 A380s (assuming -- unrealistically -- no slack at all),
14.01 hours assuming 91 A380s (including 12 spares/maintenance/parked),
13.71 hours assuming 93 A380s (including 14 spares/maintenance/parked).
It looks like there is a lot less slack than the first (erroneous) calculation was suggesting.

fodar wrote:

dtw2hyd wrote:

Can you analyze frame rotation for one day?

The averages that i computed are one-day averages. The calculation is based on a week's program because the program may be different on different days (but does repeat every week). In the case of EK, the handful of day-by-day changes was not a big deal, because there were only three flights that are not scheduled to operate ever day (the toronto flight, and gatwick and bangkok each with two weekly flights in addition to the daily rotations), a small number relative to the 66 daily flights. For SQ the proportion was much bigger, and significant. I have no information about how they actually plan to operate which frame on which flight, so i can only calculate daily averages based on an entire week's program.

It is interesting that the relative difference between the actual number of frames and the absolute minimum number required for the programmed schedule, for EK and SQ, namely
(93 - 75) / 75 = 24% for EK,
(19 - 15) / 15 = 27% for SQ,
is similar, and produces a similar average utilization. But LH is managing an apparently tighter operation, with only an additional
(14 - 12) / 12 = 17% for spares/maintenance.

Thank You for the explanation.

Some EK-related A380 quarterly lease reports to 31 March 2017 have been published, which show aircraft utilisation from delivery to 28 February 2017.

Of 10x A380's reviewed, average daily usage (no allowance for maintenance & inspections) range from 12.9 to 18.5 hours per day, with one in 12 hour range, none in 13 hour range, four in the 14 hour range, three in the 15 hour range, and one each in 17 and 18 hour ranges.

Two 777's both delivered in the second half of 2016 averaged 15.3 and 16. 2 hours respectively.

An airline with a mix of owned and leased aircraft of the same model, will utilise leased aircraft in preference to owned, to ensure cycles and hours are as close to the trigger point as possible, after which additional charges become payable. These points are usually the subject of an undisclosed side agreement.

Average daily hours are likely in the range of 13-15 over the life of the lease, so 55,000-65,000 total depending on term. Total hours are usually round figures to the nearest 10 or 5K, equating to say 13.9 or 14.9 hours per day (rather than 14 or 15).

Unless charges for breaching total hours are very leasee friendly, higher average hour aircraft will need to be rested, or put onto lighter duties to bring the average down.

Too early to determine trends for these 12 aircraft. More leasor reports still to follow.

Acid test will be as at 30 June 2017, when utilisation for the period 30 November 2016 to 31 May 2017 can be meaningfully compared to pre-30 November 2016.

Would be good if registrations of aircraft on rotated rest could be supplied from those supposedly at DXB almost daily. If these include a mix of owned and leased aircraft, then nothing out of the ordinary.

EK, Airbus and RR annual reports will indicate how the newly built but stored aircraft are being funded. No sale / leaseback until in use, so I expect all three are picking up a share. Have they been stored with interiors and engines fitted? Is there definitely no ongoing work being undertaken on them where stored? There is a rumour these undelivered aircraft will debut en masse complete with new interiors.

If you want to keep refining then DME (EK131) shows A380

fodar wrote:

It looks like there is a lot less slack than the first (erroneous) calculation was suggesting.

Emiratesdriver will be very disappointed!

13 hours per calendar day is very high for an airliner, we would also normally track another number called a flight day which will generally about one hour higher per day.

Considering the ULH nature of a lot of their A380 flying, I would suspect if the same analysis was done on the 777 fleet it would be around 2 hours a day on average lower.

You simply cannot get higher utilisation as airlines deliberately scheduled ground time to optimize connections at their hub. EK currently runs on 3 arrival/departure banks, the next step would be 4 banks however I don't think they have the slots or gates available to enable that.

emiratesdriver wrote:

Nice work Fodar, I can tell you that at the moment, as of yesterday in fact the plan if you would call it that is that based on a 30-38hr rotation between 9-12 airframes are taken off line ops at any one time. There are typically 2-3 380 frames in maintenance at any one time so your numbers would tie in with this.
Please be aware that there are a number of posters on here who will take you to task regarding your analysis and who will most likely demand that you provide verification in some form or another, ignore their churlish requests as they can't stand the reality that EK have currently got too much capacity.

It seems to me that the only churlish comment in this thread is the one made by yourself.

You continue to make claims without supplying evidence to back them up.

Please post the list of tail numbers for any given day (preferable for three separate days) of the "9-12 airframes taken off line ops at any one time". We can then look up the history of those aircraft and determine what the truth is.

Until and unless you do this, your comments have no merit.

Data please.

Thank you.

fodar wrote:

The new absolute minimum is 79 frames instead of 75 (which makes sense, i added 4 rotations with an average block time of about 7 hours each way).
The utilization rates are now:
16.14 hours assuming the absolute minimum 79 A380s (assuming -- unrealistically -- no slack at all),
14.01 hours assuming 91 A380s (including 12 spares/maintenance/parked),
13.71 hours assuming 93 A380s (including 14 spares/maintenance/parked).
It looks like there is a lot less slack than the first (erroneous) calculation was suggesting.

Thank you, Fodor, for the wonderful work you've done and for your willingness to revisit and emend your data. It really is a very nice concept to show a range of possibilities based on three degrees of hypothetical tightness in scheduling.

I noticed a slight peculiarity in the data, but have no idea whether it might in any way affect your hypotheses.

At outstations, Emirates often manages to turn the aircraft in about two hours.

However, at DBX Dubai, turns of less than four hours are relatively rare. Others have suggested that this might be due to the requirement of banking operations.

I'd suggest it is due to minimum time needed for minor daily maintenance, especially for the thorough cleaning and refreshment of aircraft interiors.

At outstations a decent sweeping out may be sufficient, but back at base a very thorough cleaning and restocking of all sorts of supplies, linens, bathrobes, etc., etc., is necessary if the airline is going to maintain high standards.

There were only five instances in your data where I found these short turn times at Dubai:

1234567 ek 008 LHR 09:05 - 19:10 dxb => EK 500 DXB 21:55 - 02:30+BOM
1234567 ek 208 JFK 16:30 - 13:20+dxb => EK 187 DXB 15:45 - 20:55 BCN
1234567 ek 226 SFO 16:45 - 19:25+dxb => EK 374 DXB 22:30 - 07:35+BKK
1234567 ek 375 BKK 09:30 - 13:00 dxb => EK 091 DXB 15:45 - 20:30 MXP
1234567 ek 415 SYD 06:00 - 14:10 dxb => EK 051 DXB 16:30 - 20:50 MUC

I wonder what might happen if you somehow adjusted your scheduling to accommodate longer turns in these cases?

Thanks again for the wonderful look at Emirates' operations.

BobPatterson wrote:

I wonder what might happen if you somehow adjusted your scheduling to accommodate longer turns in these cases?

As I'm sure you realize, these are not actual assignments. They are just the theoretical minimum-slack assignments, to see what the absolute minimum number of frames is required, and then count how many are left over.

My main purpose in this exercise was to figure out the maximum number of apparently parked aircraft, for a given set of programmed flights. If one were to observe that 5 frames appear to be consistently parked for days on end, is that reasonable or is it an indication of an inefficient operation? If one were to observe 10 apparently parked frames, would that indicate inefficiency? 15? The answer depends on the total schedule that needs to be flown, so you need to find the absolute minimum number of frames that can do the job, and count how many are left over.

That is why I looked for the tightest possible chains. As you point out, in the resulting chains, some (a few) assignments are tight, but they are all generically doable. And the minimum-slack chains confirm that you can indeed have a high utilization rate (as I estimated) at the same time as you have many "apparently parked" frames (spares, maintenance, or just temporarily parked).

fodar wrote:

fodar wrote:

to compare with other operators

Another case for comparison, that of SQ:

For the week of May 1, the program is
1234567 SQ 345 ZRH 11:45 - 05:55+SIN => SQ 802 SIN 08:40 - 14:40 PEK
1234567 SQ 403 DEL 21:55 - 06:10+SIN => SQ 860 SIN 08:40 - 12:40 HKG
1234567 SQ 335 CDG 12:00 - 06:50+SIN => SQ 308 SIN 09:00 - 15:40 LHR
1234567 SQ 317 LHR 11:25 - 07:30+SIN => SQ 830 SIN 09:45 - 15:05 PVG
1234567 SQ 423 BOM 23:40 - 07:40+SIN => SQ 406 SIN 17:10 - 20:10 DEL
1234567 SQ 25 JFK 20:55fra07:50*SIN => SQ 424 SIN 19:00 - 21:50 BOM
1234567 SQ 232 SYD 11:00 - 17:30 SIN => SQ 221 SIN 20:15 - 05:55+SYD
1234567 SQ 321 LHR 22:05 - 18:10+SIN => SQ 322 SIN 23:30 - 05:55+LHR
1234567 SQ 863 HKG 14:25 - 18:20 SIN => SQ 26 SIN 23:55fra11:10+JFK
1234567 SQ 222 SYD 15:00 - 21:20 SIN => SQ 336 SIN 00:10 - 07:30 CDG
1234567 SQ 833 PVG 16:50 - 22:20 SIN => SQ 231 SIN 00:45 - 10:25 SYD
1234567 SQ 807 PEK 16:35 - 23:00 SIN => SQ 346 SIN 01:25 - 08:15 ZRH

--34-67 SQ 618 SIN 01:40 - 09:20 KIX
--34-67 SQ 619 KIX 10:55 - 16:40 SIN
(and the four-day-only KIX flights cannot be ignored in this case).

It is straightforward to verify that a minimum of 15 frames are required for this program. This theoretical minimum would result in an average utilization rate of 16.2 hours / day. With the 19 frames that SQ has, the utilization rate drops to 12.79 hours / day / frame (and up to 4 frames parked at any one time).

The week of 1 May is a little exceptional for SQ, because it is the first week that the formerly-A380 Melbourne rotation SQ 217/218 switches to the A359, along with the replacement of the usual A330 on SQ 618/619 on tuesday, wed, sat and sun.

In spite of the difference in size, EK's utilization is a little better than SQ's, but lower than LH's. Then again, the average utilization is not the only measure of the efficiency of an operation, especially when estimated over a single week which could be exceptional for various reasons.

To get an idea of how your calculations compare to reality, SQ's utilisation rate is of about 14.5 hours/day/frame, from insider source.

Alexsing wrote:

To get an idea of how your calculations compare to reality, SQ's utilisation rate is of about 14.5 hours/day/frame, from insider source.

You -- or anyone for that matter -- can readily calculate the utilization rate for the program above, for the week of 1 May. The total block times for the week divided by (19 frames x 7 days) amount to 12.79 hours/day/frame.

fodar wrote:

Alexsing wrote:

To get an idea of how your calculations compare to reality, SQ's utilisation rate is of about 14.5 hours/day/frame, from insider source.

You -- or anyone for that matter -- can readily calculate the utilization rate for the program above, for the week of 1 May. The total block times for the week divided by (19 frames x 7 days) amount to 12.79 hours/day/frame.

I'm not putting any doubt onto your calculations, but simply giving you the actual overall utilisation rate averaged over a 12 month period for SQ's A380 fleet, which accounts for maintenance, AOG etc.
Again your calculations are correct from the information you provided, this is strictly for comparison.

Careful Alexsing, you'll be required to provide "concrete" evidence by some on here along with possibly a staff number and photo to "prove" your claims. If not, be prepared to be accused of pretty much anything including having an agenda.
EK latest, 7 A380 frames this week on rotating "rest" along with 3 in the sheds, comes straight from the Ops update meeting earlier this week, sorry I can't prove it though.

No need to mention the 12x777s in a similar situation.

Why give the who story .....

In a hypothetical scenario, even if there an issue EK cannot fix it, but Dubai will.

As far as evidence goes, CAPA used the P-word, in its analysis.

emiratesdriver wrote:

Careful Alexsing, you'll be required to provide "concrete" evidence by some on here along with possibly a staff number and photo to "prove" your claims. If not, be prepared to be accused of pretty much anything including having an agenda.

Why would he? He isn't making unsupported claims - he is simply providing anecdotal evidence to help sense check the analysis done by fodar. There is a big difference - someone claiming to be an A380 pilot really ought to be able to understand that.

emiratesdriver wrote:

EK latest, 7 A380 frames this week on rotating "rest" along with 3 in the sheds, comes straight from the Ops update meeting earlier this week, sorry I can't prove it though.

But you could prove it, very easily, by providing registration numbers, as a number of people have requested, many times. The fact that you continue to avoid doing that really doesn't help make your claims credible.

dtw2hyd wrote:

As far as evidence goes, CAPA used the P-word, in its analysis.

True. But CAPA was talking about what might have to happen in the future, as a result of the cuts in USA services, not making claims that EK is already under-utilising and parking frames.

fodar wrote:

Alexsing wrote:

To get an idea of how your calculations compare to reality, SQ's utilisation rate is of about 14.5 hours/day/frame, from insider source.

You -- or anyone for that matter -- can readily calculate the utilization rate for the program above, for the week of 1 May. The total block times for the week divided by (19 frames x 7 days) amount to 12.79 hours/day/frame.

Your calculations are not wrong, they just don't take maintenance and technical delays into account. If the aircraft goes AOG, replacement equipment is required.

Once you take (un)scheduled downtime into account, utilization rate will increase a bit.

Speedbored..

But you could prove it, very easily, by providing registration numbers, as a number of people have requested, many times. The fact that you continue to avoid doing that really doesn't help make your claims credible.

Of course I can, but it's clear you would rather still take potshots, but just to indulge your arrogance EDU, and EDT, why don't you check out their last flights.
One of them has just been put back into service
Feel free to ask me any question regarding flying either the 380 or 777 as I have thousands of hours on both types.

emiratesdriver wrote:

Of course I can, but it's clear you would rather still take potshots, but just to indulge your arrogance EDU, and EDT, why don't you check out their last flights.

There is no evidence to suggest either of those have been parked, around 30 sectors in the past week between them.

https://www.flightradar24.com/data/aircraft/a6-edt
https://www.flightradar24.com/data/aircraft/a6-edu

IMHO Dubai is priming DAE to rescue EK. DAE is being aggressively buying portfolios(GECAS ATR) and lessors(AWAS). Few market transactions later few big family transactions.

So basically DAE will take over EK's VLA obligations. Not sure how AWAS order book looks like, if they have NBs,Small to Medium WBs EK can get those quickly. If there are no takers for A380 and B777X, DAE will swap or cancel orders. Everything will be bundled and no one would know the real impact of VLAs on DAE.

Keeping the "EK management never wrong" rule alive. Now the $$$Billion question, who wants to fly these, I mean pilots.

There is no evidence to suggest either of those have been parked, around 30 sectors in the past week between them.

https://www.flightradar24.com/data/aircraft/a6-edt
https://www.flightradar24.com/data/aircraft/a6-edu

Zeke, how long was EDT on the ground? Around 30hrs or so? Hmmmm haven't I been saying that regarding "virtual" parking for about the past 2 months? As for EDU, currently out of service and not due to operate its next sector for a while.
Let me spell it out for you AGAIN EK is virtually parking airframes by using a rolling programme of taking airframes out of service for defined periods...30-42hrs typically, its being done so the powers that be don't have to officially park airframes and suffer the corresponding PR issues. Do yourself a favour and read between the lines rather than arguing about semantics.
Like I said previously in the thread, this week it's 7 airframes worth of flying removed with another 3 in the sheds under maintenance.

emiratesdriver wrote:

Of course I can, but it's clear you would rather still take potshots, but just to indulge your arrogance EDU, and EDT, why don't you check out their last flights.
One of them has just been put back into service
Feel free to ask me any question regarding flying either the 380 or 777 as I have thousands of hours on both types.

Both have been and are in service according to Flightradar.

EDT / 90 is leased, and has averaged 12.1 hours per day utilisation since delivery to 28 February 2017.

@Planesmart.

emiratesdriver wrote:

There is no evidence to suggest either of those have been parked, around 30 sectors in the past week between them.

https://www.flightradar24.com/data/aircraft/a6-edt
https://www.flightradar24.com/data/aircraft/a6-edu

Zeke, how long was EDT on the ground? Around 30hrs or so? Hmmmm haven't I been saying that regarding "virtual" parking for about the past 2 months? As for EDU, currently out of service and not due to operate its next sector for a while.
Let me spell it out for you AGAIN EK is virtually parking airframes by using a rolling programme of taking airframes out of service for defined periods...30-42hrs typically, its being done so the powers that be don't have to officially park airframes and suffer the corresponding PR issues. Do yourself a favour and read between the lines rather than arguing about semantics.
Like I said previously in the thread, this week it's 7 airframes worth of flying removed with another 3 in the sheds under maintenance.

Do a little maths regarding EDT, once you've figured out how long it was on the ground between sectors let me know, secondly EDU is currently resting, I'm predicting however that She won't operate a sector until tomorrow after having sat on the ground for a bit over 40hrs. I'm also going to go out on a limb and guess it's going to operate a flight to somewhere in the U.K. (Unless of course there's an aircraft change) probably southern U.K. and most likely the flight number will in all probability be a single digit flight number. Again though I can't prove any of this, you'll just have to get on your flight radar apps to prove me wrong.

emiratesdriver wrote:

Zeke, how long was EDT on the ground? Around 30hrs or so? Hmmmm haven't I been saying that regarding "virtual" parking for about the past 2 months? As for EDU, currently out of service and not due to operate its next sector for a while.
Let me spell it out for you AGAIN EK is virtually parking airframes by using a rolling programme of taking airframes out of service for defined periods...30-42hrs typically, its being done so the powers that be don't have to officially park airframes and suffer the corresponding PR issues. Do yourself a favour and read between the lines rather than arguing about semantics.
Like I said previously in the thread, this week it's 7 airframes worth of flying removed with another 3 in the sheds under maintenance.

If, as you claim, 7 airframes worth of flying has been removed from the schedule and individual frames are being taken out of operation for 30-42 hour periods, and 3 frames are "in the shed" then, on every single day of last week, you should be able to show 10 frames that did not fly that day. All you have provided is 2 frames that did not fly on 2 different days - your "evidence" is considerably less than 4% of what you are claiming and just looks like normal airline operations to most of us.

If, as you claim, EK are "virtually parking" 7 frames (though I'm sure you have previously claimed it was more than that so things must be improving now, I guess) then perhaps you could explain to us how EK are still managing a higher average utilisation rate than the industry average?

speedbored wrote:

emiratesdriver wrote:

Zeke, how long was EDT on the ground? Around 30hrs or so? Hmmmm haven't I been saying that regarding "virtual" parking for about the past 2 months? As for EDU, currently out of service and not due to operate its next sector for a while.
Let me spell it out for you AGAIN EK is virtually parking airframes by using a rolling programme of taking airframes out of service for defined periods...30-42hrs typically, its being done so the powers that be don't have to officially park airframes and suffer the corresponding PR issues. Do yourself a favour and read between the lines rather than arguing about semantics.
Like I said previously in the thread, this week it's 7 airframes worth of flying removed with another 3 in the sheds under maintenance.

If, as you claim, 7 airframes worth of flying has been removed from the schedule and individual frames are being taken out of operation for 30-42 hour periods, and 3 frames are "in the shed" then, on every single day of last week, you should be able to show 10 frames that did not fly that day. All you have provided is 2 frames that did not fly on 2 different days - your "evidence" is considerably less than 4% of what you are claiming and just looks like normal airline operations to most of us.

If, as you claim, EK are "virtually parking" 7 frames (though I'm sure you have previously claimed it was more than that so things must be improving now, I guess) then perhaps you could explain to us how EK are still managing a higher average utilisation rate than the industry average?

Really speedbored? That's the best you can do? A quick bit of mental maths gives me 2 airframes not in the system for a total of 72 hours..so that equates to 3 days give or take? Multiply that by 3-4 more airframes spread over the week and hey presto 7 airframes worth of flying magically disappears! and as you say it just looks like normal airline operations, pretty clever and devious if you ask me.
As regarding utilisation in general, all I can say is that it was a lot higher at one point than it is now and that maintenance is scheduled well in advance so I cant be bothered looking for that.
On a side note it has improved, there were up to 12 airframes worth of flying removed a few weeks back and people were very very jittery...lots of pointed questions being asked by outstation staff, particularly station managers.
I've now given you about as much info as I can reasonably do without compromising my identity and my access but remember those numbers 30-42 hours, they exist for a good reason.
Lastly, just to use a little bit of public domain info I present
https://www.flightradar24.com/data/aircraft/a6-eom
https://www.flightradar24.com/data/aircraft/a6-eox
Keep an eye on how long until they operate their next flights, then work out how long they've sat on the ground having a rest.

Like I said in the past industry averages are irreverent with assets wasted at this magnitude.

1 hr less is total 10 hrs for an airline with 10 frame, for a 250 frame airline it is 250 hrs a day.

A 25 Billion ASKM airline with 75% PLF wastes 6.25 Billion ASKMs but a 200 Billion ASKM airline wastes a whopping 50 Billion ASKMs

Same with average fleet age, it appears EK used to keep average age at or below 6.49 to claim average age of 6 years, but on India sector it was operating 17 year old frames and older frames on US sector, because new deliveries were low MTOW, no-CRA. When CM dumped old frames avg age came down to 5.4??%.

This is not what a numbers run airline supposed to be. My 2 cents.

emiratesdriver wrote:

Zeke, how long was EDT on the ground? Around 30hrs or so? Hmmmm haven't I been saying that regarding "virtual" parking for about the past 2 months? As for EDU, currently out of service and not due to operate its next sector for a while.
Let me spell it out for you AGAIN EK is virtually parking airframes by using a rolling programme of taking airframes out of service for defined periods...30-42hrs typically, its being done so the powers that be don't have to officially park airframes and suffer the corresponding PR issues. Do yourself a favour and read between the lines rather than arguing about semantics.
Like I said previously in the thread, this week it's 7 airframes worth of flying removed with another 3 in the sheds under maintenance.

What you are describing is typical for regular phase check system. This is what the heavy and light phase checks would like in a typical planning system, with some other reconfiguration, AD compliance, modifications, reconfiguration, and painting.




See how many aircraft are "parked" every day ? Do the tail letters look familiar, the number of hangers (hint hint) ?

At EK each A380 will have a "Weekly/SV" check every 22 days, 10 hours is allocated to that including towing. Every 85 days it will have an A check (1A - 12 A), they are schedule for 24-36 hrs each depending on the check, and every 12,000 hrs or 24 months a C check (1C - 12C). C checks take 23 ground days to complete except for 3C and 6C which are 40 ground days. An engine change is 36 hours, APU change 16 hrs, aircraft reweigh 24 hrs etc etc.

Zeke remind me again what year the last 330 and 340's left EK service? Then remind me again how up to date that particular snapshot is? I don't dispute btw what your saying merely that the info you are presenting is at least 12 months old..if not older and has little relevance to my point as the airframes I'm discussing aren't undergoing anything other than line rather than offline maintenance, but thanks BTW for showing what a typical maintenance schedule looks like.
Hint hint EAM left in Nov 2015, so nice try but no cigar.

That is what a typical airline maintenance plan would look like with around 140 aircraft in service (7-8% of the fleet "parked" for maintenance every day). At EK it's over 250 aircraft now so it would be a lot more maintenance going on, with checks taking longer as the aircraft are bigger. I would expect 15-20 aircraft out of the fleet every day to be "parked" for maintenance.

Ballpark that would be about 7 A380s and 12 777s a day for fleets that size.

What are the chances that we see more 77W's return to US flights. Loads are doing pretty horrible.

dtw2hyd wrote:

Like I said in the past industry averages are irreverent with assets wasted at this magnitude.

(I'm assuming irreverent has been auto-corrected from irrelevant)

Industry averages are absolutely relevant. We're looking at the claim that Emirates are in trouble and concealing the fact they are parking large numbers of aircraft due to a downturn. Comparing their utilization rates with that of their peers, who face many of the same operational challenges, is a way of assessing that claim. We all know that their can be variations, P2P vs hub and spoke, curfews, stage lengths etc. But the reality is, every data point we can see (thanks Fodar, Bob, PlaneSmart et al) has EK doing pretty well on this metric. And if Emirates isn't a numbers run company, what does that make the US carriers, whose widebody utilization rates are typically lower?

I've no idea why we're playing EmiratesDriver's silly game with individual aircraft. Emirates has a certain fleet size and a certain operation, the question at the macro level is, is the fleet sized appropriately for that operation? By industry standards, the answer is clearly yes. Whether they park given frames for a good length of time or rotate frames out on a rotating basis isn't important. They have the same levers as everybody else in adjusting their growth, either by deferring deliveries or not extending leases, I've no idea what there should be shock when they use them.

I've no idea why we're playing EmiratesDriver's silly game with individual aircraft. Emirates has a certain fleet size and a certain operation, the question at the macro level is, is the fleet sized appropriately for that operation? By industry standards, the answer is clearly yes. Whether they park given frames for a good length of time or rotate frames out on a rotating basis isn't important. They have the same levers as everybody else in adjusting their growth, either by deferring deliveries or not extending leases, I've no idea what there should be shock when they use them.

I agree! and perhaps with the benefit of wider perspective you may be able to appreciate that my point regarding this is simple, EK are using those levers that you allude to, in the way that I am clearly failing to explain or convince as the perception is that there is effectively nothing to see here, Ops normal etc etc..when the reality behind the scenes is one of abject chaos and cultural bias leading to a lack of a coordinated approach to steering the titanic away from the iceberg. I see this every day, I interact with many of the non local decision makers and I see first hand the results.
I've said previously that the proof of the pudding will be in the eating, those being the financial results that will be presented this month, it is virtually unprecedented what's currently happening...the virtual parking of airframes is merely a manifestation of this current reality.

emiratesdriver wrote:

Really speedbored? That's the best you can do? A quick bit of mental maths gives me 2 airframes not in the system for a total of 72 hours..so that equates to 3 days give or take? Multiply that by 3-4 more airframes spread over the week and hey presto 7 airframes worth of flying magically disappears!

Really emiratesdriver? I really would expect a pilot's mental arithmetic to be ever so slightly better than that.

A week has 168 hours in it so 7 airframes "magically disappearing" for a week would equate to 1176 hours of downtime, not the 36*7=252 you seem to be claiming, much less the ~70 hours you have provided any evidence of. Even if you ignore the normal turnaround periods, and only use the average "actually flying" time, 7 airframes parked for a week at the current utilisation rate would be ~640 hours of downtime. What you are claiming is closer to 1 frame parked for a week - big deal! That's just normal operations.

I ask again - if, as you claim, EK are parking frames (whether genuinely. virtually, or over on another planet), please explain to us how they are still managing a higher than industry-average utilisation rate.