Bricktop wrote:

I think the canary is coughing.

What is that supposed to mean? Airlines have ordered more seats (capacity) during a time period for which they predict they won't be able to fill them cost-effectively?

It would seem that CS is alluding to several possibilities:

1. Their eventual purchase of Air Berlin and folding it into their Eurowings plan.
2. Perhaps indeed their preference for the A350 across the group. (Good news for Airbus)
3. A "Delta" approach to aircraft purchasing and leasing: looking for deals, used market, etc. This may indeed be their preference for Austrian, Brussels, etc. (Not so good news for anyone.)
4. VLA deferrals, which may spread to the B777X, not just the A380 and B748. Many airlines are looking into this. Does not mean any decrease in interest in the B777X over the long term. (Also not good news for anyone, especially Boeing.)
5. I doubt the 787 will surface at LH or in the group at all. (Not good news for Boeing.)

LH are a hub airline. If they feel no need for big airplanes anymore it looks tricky for Frankfurt/Main airport to me. I wouldn't understand a step like that. Are they changing their business model to non hub or similar? Is future growth going to lowcost affiliates only?
Could this be some pressure strategy against Frankfurt airport to not open up to Ryanair that much by maybe not building a lowcost terminal and similar?

Noshow wrote:

LH are a hub airline. If they feel no need for big airplanes anymore it looks tricky for Frankfurt/Main airport to me. I wouldn't understand a step like that. Are they changing their business model to non hub or similar? Is future growth going to lowcost affiliates only?
Could this be some pressure strategy against Frankfurt airport to not open up to Ryanair that much by maybe not building a lowcost terminal and similar?

Define "big"? They will still take 777-9s, just perhaps over a greate3r timeframe. The A350 isn't tiny and is probably more flexible for a multi-hub strategy. The A380s are still going to be around for quite a while. If they plan to route less people over FRA and more over other "company" hubs, they probably can reduce the average aircraft size in FRA.

PlanesNTrains wrote:

Noshow wrote:

LH are a hub airline. If they feel no need for big airplanes anymore it looks tricky for Frankfurt/Main airport to me. I wouldn't understand a step like that. Are they changing their business model to non hub or similar? Is future growth going to lowcost affiliates only?
Could this be some pressure strategy against Frankfurt airport to not open up to Ryanair that much by maybe not building a lowcost terminal and similar?

Define "big"? They will still take 777-9s, just perhaps over a greate3r timeframe. The A350 isn't tiny and is probably more flexible for a multi-hub strategy. The A380s are still going to be around for quite a while. If they plan to route less people over FRA and more over other "company" hubs, they probably can reduce the average aircraft size in FRA.

Not to mention they are upgauging the narrow body fleet. Both with larger scale 735/733/CR9s>A319>A320>A321 and higher density seating across Narrow and Widebodies. All of this is in addition to having "reliever" hubs. Allows them to focus on more profitable O/D in some areas and cost effective connections in others. LH appears to have lots of flexibility and options.

airzona11 wrote:

PlanesNTrains wrote:

Noshow wrote:

LH are a hub airline. If they feel no need for big airplanes anymore it looks tricky for Frankfurt/Main airport to me. I wouldn't understand a step like that. Are they changing their business model to non hub or similar? Is future growth going to lowcost affiliates only?
Could this be some pressure strategy against Frankfurt airport to not open up to Ryanair that much by maybe not building a lowcost terminal and similar?

Define "big"? They will still take 777-9s, just perhaps over a greate3r timeframe. The A350 isn't tiny and is probably more flexible for a multi-hub strategy. The A380s are still going to be around for quite a while. If they plan to route less people over FRA and more over other "company" hubs, they probably can reduce the average aircraft size in FRA.

Not to mention they are upgauging the narrow body fleet. Both with larger scale 735/733/CR9s>A319>A320>A321 and higher density seating across Narrow and Widebodies. All of this is in addition to having "reliever" hubs. Allows them to focus on more profitable O/D in some areas and cost effective connections in others. LH appears to have lots of flexibility and options.

Given their NB growth, I wonder if MoM would appeal to them at all?

I was always very skeptical about their 777-9 order : too big for secondary markets, in particular with their market shares eroding. On the trunk routes, there are only a few and these are really big markets already well served by some A380s. On top they already have 747-8 that need to be operated somewhere. You end up with a small sub fleet not generating enough cash versus A350(-1000) to compensate for the extra fleet complexity.

What is missing here is what Airbus and RR are telling LH about A359, A3510 model 2020-2025.

B779 always seems to be compared to A359 model 2016 and I suppose that Airbus and RR will not sit and do nothing.

In the same way A380 need a refresh in order to compete with the new generations twins I have bee considering quit long that the B779 model 2020 seems to be bigger, more expensive but only offer the same efficiency then the A359 model 2016.

With A.net logic this should mean that the companies going for the smaller frame.

Does this not opens up for 787 in LH group?

LH seems to need replacements for 767 more then they need the 779.

Not that many 767 in the group and used A330 look like a good option, even more so if the A332 fleet of AB should become part of the fleet.

LH ordered a total of 34 779s....14 of them to be "reconfimed", so it's possible they just take the 20 over a longer timeframe and forget the other 14. We will have a better idea what they will ultimately decide come September. Definitely not a situation ala EK whereby they would cancel outright their entire order. Even if they did, what would be a Boeing model instead?

scotron11 wrote:

LH ordered a total of 34 779s....14 of them to be "reconfimed", so it's possible they just take the 20 over a longer timeframe and forget the other 14. We will have a better idea what they will ultimately decide come September. Definitely not a situation ala EK whereby they would cancel outright their entire order. Even if they did, what would be a Boeing model instead?

My point is that they go for A350 and change order to 787 to not loose deposits.

olle wrote:

My point is that they go for A350 and change order to 787 to not loose deposits.

My take on what LH will do -

Leave the 779 order at 20 and not take the additional 14 frames. No loss of deposits or need to reuse them.

Stretch deliveries over a longer period.

Order additional A350s as required.

There are actually only 20 777-9 on firm order with LH according to orders and deliveries on the Boeing homepage. Everything else are not firm orders, perhaps options, MOUs, or LOIs or something. LH is talking about stretching deliveries or reducing those 20 orders.
Furthermore LH is talking about taking A350, I assume A350-900, instead.

scbriml wrote:

olle wrote:

My point is that they go for A350 and change order to 787 to not loose deposits.

My take on what LH will do -

Leave the 779 order at 20 and not take the additional 14 frames. No loss of deposits or need to reuse them.

Stretch deliveries over a longer period.

Order additional A350s as required.

Agreed. And I think that A350 pickup will be slow. I suspect that growth is not going to be great for anyone. We are way due for an economic slowdown, and the smart thing is to watch the cash in anticipation. And LH are a pretty smart bunch.

mjoelnir wrote:

There are actually only 20 777-9 on firm order with LH according to orders and deliveries on the Boeing homepage. Everything else are not firm orders, perhaps options, MOUs, or LOIs or something. LH is talking about stretching deliveries or reducing those 20 orders.
Furthermore LH is talking about taking A350, I assume A350-900, instead.

I think you're reading too much into it - LH's statements have been very conditional with no definites. "We may have ordered too many 779s." "We may need to order more A350s."

I remember all the Boeing fanboys getting very excited when BA said the 77X was a nice fit for some of their routes. You know, not long before they ordered A350-1000s.

Could be they are so impressed with the A350 performance they want to take advantage of slot availibility seeing as the US3 have all deferred their orders.

May view is that they don't take the 14 unconfirmed, cancel those 14, they don't really need the 787, so there's no where to put the money but into a350s, which they want

scbriml wrote:

olle wrote:

My point is that they go for A350 and change order to 787 to not loose deposits.

My take on what LH will do -

Leave the 779 order at 20 and not take the additional 14 frames. No loss of deposits or need to reuse them.

Stretch deliveries over a longer period.

Order additional A350s as required.

So, in other words, pretty much what LH is hinting at. Makes sense.

I am pretty distraught by the comments that they seem not to be retrofitting the new Business Class seat on the older fleet, not even the A350. If they keep flying the current product way past 2020 they will surely be the last airline in the world to use such a 2000s configuration. Even ass backwards Emirates will probably have removed their 7-abreast by then.

scbriml wrote:

mjoelnir wrote:

There are actually only 20 777-9 on firm order with LH according to orders and deliveries on the Boeing homepage. Everything else are not firm orders, perhaps options, MOUs, or LOIs or something. LH is talking about stretching deliveries or reducing those 20 orders.
Furthermore LH is talking about taking A350, I assume A350-900, instead.

I think you're reading too much into it - LH's statements have been very conditional with no definites. "We may have ordered too many 779s." "We may need to order more A350s."

I remember all the Boeing fanboys getting very excited when BA said the 77X was a nice fit for some of their routes. You know, not long before they ordered A350-1000s.

This also might be a "trial balloon" to get the aviation and investing community used to the idea that LH is not going to take as many widebodies as it once thought it would be taking, which in turn signals the airline will not grow along the same trajectory it had hoped for.

As the launch customer LH is starting to question the 777-9 and there are only 61 ordered outside the ME3, how viable is the 777-9 situation, if the ME3 should cut down on buying wide bodies and start to cancel orders for the big frames.

The only ME3 carrier that seems vunerable is EY....they lost quite a bit with their investment in AB and AZ. Rumor is that they are looking to dispose of their stake in AB....their investment in AZ is already kaput.

Revelation wrote:

scbriml wrote:

mjoelnir wrote:

There are actually only 20 777-9 on firm order with LH according to orders and deliveries on the Boeing homepage. Everything else are not firm orders, perhaps options, MOUs, or LOIs or something. LH is talking about stretching deliveries or reducing those 20 orders.
Furthermore LH is talking about taking A350, I assume A350-900, instead.

I think you're reading too much into it - LH's statements have been very conditional with no definites. "We may have ordered too many 779s." "We may need to order more A350s."

I remember all the Boeing fanboys getting very excited when BA said the 77X was a nice fit for some of their routes. You know, not long before they ordered A350-1000s.

This also might be a "trial balloon" to get the aviation and investing community used to the idea that LH is not going to take as many widebodies as it once thought it would be taking, which in turn signals the airline will not grow along the same trajectory it had hoped for.

Where with this trial balloon would be the need to mention increasing numbers of A350, if the aim was to prepare for reduced numbers of wide bodies.

mjoelnir wrote:

Where with this trial balloon would be the need to mention increasing numbers of A350, if the aim was to prepare for reduced numbers of wide bodies.

Fair enough. The exact quote from Bloomberg isn't all that certain, it has words such as "not sure", "really", "possibly".

“I’m not sure if we’ve really ordered enough A350s and possibly too many 777Xs,” Spohr said at a staff meeting, a replay of which was seen by Bloomberg. “We must now think about either stretching the 777X in a deal with Boeing to let them come in more slowly, or increasing profitability to finance our overdue fleet investments.”

My opinion is that it suggests the airline will not grow along the same trajectory it had hoped for. There are other interpretations. The article itself later suggests:

Spohr’s message, delivered in March, may also have been intended to motivate Lufthansa managers to cut costs. He argued that meager profitability has caused the airline to under-invest in its fleet for two decades.

Maybe it is mostly a "motivational" message, which would help explain the inexact language.

Ref: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... serve-cash

Revelation wrote:

LH is not going to take as many widebodies as it once thought it would be taking, which in turn signals the airline will not grow along the same trajectory it had hoped for.

Part of the risk of ordering aircraft 7 years before delivery.

With regards the ME3 and their orders for the 777X I wonder if the political landscape may come into play at some point. We know Emirates are hurting from the laptop issue and that is before Trumps travel ban eventually in some form manages to pass. Now I don't think it should but as we have seen with the Boeing complaint on Bombardier dumping that politics is coming to the fore.

StTim wrote:

...We know Emirates are hurting from the laptop issue and that is before Trumps travel ban eventually in some form manages to pass...

I doubt they're hurting from the "laptop ban" as less than 5% of their daily flights are affected -- it's just an excuse for an overall decrease in traffic/too much capacity.