Terrible article. It's like saying the sun will rise tomorrow. We can't be certain, but it seems highly likely.

Let's think about this in more detail
LH - unlikely. It will take LH a while to digest what it buys of AB. The LH Italia experiment didn't go well and they already have an airline based in Northern Italy - Air Dolomiti to effectively serve LH hubs and Italian point 2 point.
AF/KL - Might do. They're a bit busy restructuring AF though.
IAG - Possible, Italy is a good market for them. Vueling is already in Rome, so AZ could be refocused on MIL, but the MXP/LIN split is problematic for a hub.
FR - not a chance. They might invade FCO and fill any post AZ vacuum, but takeovers aren't their style. Too messy, too many legacy contracts. I'm not sure MXP is appreciabkh better than BGY.

There don't seem too many realistic suitors for AZ. The problem is that although FCO makes operational sense MIL is a stronger market, but the LIN/MXP split is a problem for an efficient hub model. I suppose Level/Vueling or Eurowings at FCO and MXP might help to solve the problem, keeping a 'premium' AZ brand at LIN? It's still a mess and hardly restoring AZ to "glory days".

BrianDromey wrote:

Terrible article. It's like saying the sun will rise tomorrow. We can't be certain, but it seems highly likely.

Let's think about this in more detail
LH - unlikely. It will take LH a while to digest what it buys of AB. The LH Italia experiment didn't go well and they already have an airline based in Northern Italy - Air Dolomiti to effectively serve LH hubs and Italian point 2 point.
AF/KL - Might do. They're a bit busy restructuring AF though.
IAG - Possible, Italy is a good market for them. Vueling is already in Rome, so AZ could be refocused on MIL, but the MXP/LIN split is problematic for a hub.
FR - not a chance. They might invade FCO and fill any post AZ vacuum, but takeovers aren't their style. Too messy, too many legacy contracts. I'm not sure MXP is appreciabkh better than BGY.

There don't seem too many realistic suitors for AZ. The problem is that although FCO makes operational sense MIL is a stronger market, but the LIN/MXP split is a problem for an efficient hub model. I suppose Level/Vueling or Eurowings at FCO and MXP might help to solve the problem, keeping a 'premium' AZ brand at LIN? It's still a mess and hardly restoring AZ to "glory days".

I think what you stated is a pretty good summary of the situation. Adding to its complexity, is the Italian government's invisible hand in manipulating the outcome in line with the mainstream political sentiment.

I would not be really surprised of an 11th hour last minute rescue/restructuring plan by an Italian led group of investors or banks.

So where will their fleet be heading if they ceased operation fully?

SQ789 wrote:

So where will their fleet be heading if they ceased operation fully?

Mostly back to a variety of leasing companies. 75% of the fleet, if not more by now, is leased. Note the registrations of a sizeable part of Alitalia's fleet begin EI (Ireland) instead of I (Italy), and Ireland has an ample supply of aircraft leasing companies.

Another article on European Airline Consolidation: https://www.thenational.ae/business/avi ... n-1.623216

I think that IAG would be an awesome option to proceed with a "good airline" AZ.
IAG did a good job with IB.

Waterbomber wrote:

I think that IAG would be an awesome option to proceed with a "good airline" AZ.
IAG did a good job with IB.

Depends who you're asking haha

Why does it take so long to find a buyer? If we look at AB there are quite a few interested parties that already made offers and the whole deal should be done with still within this year.
I know that the german market is bigger and more important but there surely has to be some real interest from someone in AZ. They declared bankruptcy in April and it seems like very little progress is made.

http://www.corriere.it/economia/17_sett ... 946a.shtml

New development in the AZ saga: as EY remains the sole candidate to bid for the purchase of AZ in its entirety, and even that would be highly improbable due to the current EU aviation foreign ownership cap at 49%, AZ staff have come up with an Employee Buyout (EBO) strategy in which AZ employees (mostly pilots and FAs) would buy 10-20% of the airline and teaming up with 'a non-European airline acquiring a 49% stake'. The partner airline has been identified as Hainan Airlines, which has submitted an offer which was not considered among the big contenders.
The minister of transportation said he's willing to 'support' the initiative.
Alitalia is currently managed under the extraordinary administration team of 3 government appointed managers whose role is to transition the airline to the sale or liquidation. The MOT will review the bids and handle the sale process.

VCEflyboy wrote:

http://www.corriere.it/economia/17_settembre_07/alitalia-parte-corsa-offerte-pronte-lufthansa-easyjet-ryanair-faf7527a-9337-11e7-a8ea-58c09844946a.shtml

New development in the AZ saga: as EY remains the sole candidate to bid for the purchase of AZ in its entirety, and even that would be highly improbable due to the current EU aviation foreign ownership cap at 49%, AZ staff have come up with an Employee Buyout (EBO) strategy in which AZ employees (mostly pilots and FAs) would buy 10-20% of the airline and teaming up with 'a non-European airline acquiring a 49% stake'. The partner airline has been identified as Hainan Airlines, which has submitted an offer which was not considered among the big contenders.
The minister of transportation said he's willing to 'support' the initiative.
Alitalia is currently managed under the extraordinary administration team of 3 government appointed managers whose role is to transition the airline to the sale or liquidation. The MOT will review the bids and handle the sale process.

That sounds like an absolutely terrible idea. The employees are (a major part of) the problem

I assume EY would own the rest.

Waterbomber wrote:

I think that IAG would be an awesome option to proceed with a "good airline" AZ.
IAG did a good job with IB.

IAG doesn't need another hub on the edge of Europe. When oneworld lost Malev they lost their best hub in Central Europe, not that it was a major one. If I were IAG (and of course I'm not) I would be looking at AB and try to buy as much DUS as I could...short haul to Vueling and long haul to Level.

Btw. as it was mentioned earlier, AFKL's CEO has ruled out buying AZ (and AB) only this week.

Waterbomber wrote:

I think that IAG would be an awesome option to proceed with a "good airline" AZ.
IAG did a good job with IB.

IAG cashed out its counter to pay BA's pension, almost destroyed IB, and now is in progress of rebranding it and making it disappear. A terrible example....

VCEflyboy wrote:

AZ staff have come up with an Employee Buyout (EBO) strategy in which AZ employees (mostly pilots and FAs) would buy 10-20% of the airline and teaming up with 'a non-European airline acquiring a 49% stake'. The partner airline has been identified as Hainan Airlines, which has submitted an offer which was not considered among the big contenders

And who will onw the remaining 31 - 41%? Anyway wasn't the Chinese government clear enough to Hainan's parent when it talked towards the Chinese multinationals about their foreign investments? Would surpise me if Hainan would do something of which it knows isn't approved by the Chinese political elite.

On a side note AZ is moving to LH's terminal 1 in Frankfurt eff from 19OCT

https://www.alitalia.com/de_de/fly-alit ... inal1.html

jnev3289 wrote:

VCEflyboy wrote:

http://www.corriere.it/economia/17_settembre_07/alitalia-parte-corsa-offerte-pronte-lufthansa-easyjet-ryanair-faf7527a-9337-11e7-a8ea-58c09844946a.shtml

New development in the AZ saga: as EY remains the sole candidate to bid for the purchase of AZ in its entirety, and even that would be highly improbable due to the current EU aviation foreign ownership cap at 49%, AZ staff have come up with an Employee Buyout (EBO) strategy in which AZ employees (mostly pilots and FAs) would buy 10-20% of the airline and teaming up with 'a non-European airline acquiring a 49% stake'. The partner airline has been identified as Hainan Airlines, which has submitted an offer which was not considered among the big contenders.
The minister of transportation said he's willing to 'support' the initiative.
Alitalia is currently managed under the extraordinary administration team of 3 government appointed managers whose role is to transition the airline to the sale or liquidation. The MOT will review the bids and handle the sale process.

That sounds like an absolutely terrible idea. The employees are (a major part of) the problem

Maybe not. They might change their ways if they start realizing what it feels to lose money (if losing one's job is not enough).

Please continue here...

Who do you think will be the buyer of Alitalia?

jetmechanicdave wrote:

Please continue here...

Who do you think will be the buyer of Alitalia?

It'll get ripped apart like Air Berlin. Slots and routes will be sold, aircraft will be sold, and maybe small parts of the actual business is taken over by different buyers but I doubt anyone is buying Alitalia as is.

Jayafe wrote:

IAG cashed out its counter to pay BA's pension, almost destroyed IB, and now is in progress of rebranding it and making it disappear. A terrible example....

Don't you remember when IB was losing over 1€ million a day and all of the newspapers said it would disappear within a month? Maybe you prefer the old livery but IB is efficient for the first time ever and the increased quality of service represents Spain better than before. Willie Walsh knows what he's doing.

I believe that IAG should be the one to buy AZ because it would keep the LH Group from expanding further. They could use VY to complement a small and leaner AZ operation. This, I concede, is wishful thinking. LH will probably be the one to take AZ if anyone buys it. Many people on here also mention AZ being broken up and sold off in parts like PA, which is also highly probable.

hispanola wrote:

Don't you remember when IB was losing over 1€ million a day and all of the newspapers said it would disappear within a month? Maybe you prefer the old livery but IB is efficient for the first time ever and the increased quality of service represents Spain better than before. Willie Walsh knows wha he's doing.

When I said it was being rebranded, I was actually meaning transferring strategies and actives to IB2 and Level, leaving IB with only one leg, close to disappear if any breakdown happens.
Oh yeah, WW knows perfectly what he is doing, as he knew how to transfer all the cash IB had available to pay BA's pension, which balance was broke and would have caused massive strikes and likely the bankruptcy of BA. But let's leave the OffTopic here

klakzky123 wrote:

jetmechanicdave wrote:

Please continue here...

Who do you think will be the buyer of Alitalia?

It'll get ripped apart like Air Berlin. Slots and routes will be sold, aircraft will be sold, and maybe small parts of the actual business is taken over by different buyers but I doubt anyone is buying Alitalia as is.

Agreed. It simply isn't possible to save the airline with all the groups allowed to impede reform.

Deadline extended for Alitalia bidders till October 16.

http://atwonline.com/airlines/deadline- ... ia-bidders

DUSZRH wrote:

Btw. as it was mentioned earlier, AFKL's CEO has ruled out buying AZ (and AB) only this week.

I would hope so. AF needs to get their house in order before AF-KLM starts buying other troubled airlines.

Sorry if this is incredibly stupid, I don’t know much about how any of this works, but if LH owns the name and some ops out of FCO/LIN/MXP, could they use Air Dolomiti as a base for AZ and work up from there?

mercure1 wrote:

Deadline extended for Alitalia bidders till October 16.

http://atwonline.com/airlines/deadline- ... ia-bidders

Bidders are encouraged to buy the whole airline (`120 airframes) rather than a subset.

The Ryanair offer involves 90 airframes and some tweaking of staff and, most likely compensation and benefits. Reaction to Ryanair has not been enthusiastic, claiming that their model would clash with the existing Alitalia business architecture. While I don't find the Ryanair approach to airline life especially appealing, I thought the problem was that Alitalia's present setup was going the way of the dinosaur. So, I continue to scratch my head regarding the outcome of this whole drama.

IAG cashed out its counter to pay BA's pension, almost destroyed IB, and now is in progress of rebranding it and making it disappear. A terrible example....[/quote]

TOTAL TWADDLE. BA pays BAs pension contribution from its profits and cash and is now embarking on its own restructuring of the pension schemes.....IB was close to bust when the Spanish economy dived following the global financial crisis, something not envisaged when BA and IB merged to form IAG. IB today is actually a pretty decent carrier and profitable for the first time in many many years, and expanding in a controlled manner. As promised EI expansion TATL has begun. Indeed you may have noticed if you had any real knowledge of aviation that BA is being held steady to allow capacity at IB and EI to be expanded. BA and LHR are full enough that using DUB and .or MAD as alternative transit points seems to be the model for a while.

Please d your homework

SO, reading between the lines, other than waiting another 2 weeks, we still don't really know....

mutu wrote:

....Please d your homework

I have more knowledge that you might think, and based on facts (working for unspecified group that starts with an "I"). At the point you will not debate with facts but personally attacking, you don't win, I just give up

Lufthansa has sent a delegation to AZ HQ at FCO presumably to discuss takeover.

https://www.google.it/amp/www.soldionli ... 25e34b1aa1

Could LH take AZ and AB?

I really hope they don't take AZ as a whole. I would think the Lufthansa folks get that.

AZ is dysfunctional and needs to be dissolved with a new operation formed to take its place.... one that is free of the shackles restraining the current airline from moving forward with solid reform. I would even go so far as to say that the brand should be put out to pasture entirely and a fresh new identity be put forward. AZ is a stale brand associated with mismanagement and failure. End it already.

Jayafe wrote:

Waterbomber wrote:

I think that IAG would be an awesome option to proceed with a "good airline" AZ.
IAG did a good job with IB.

IAG cashed out its counter to pay BA's pension, almost destroyed IB, and now is in progress of rebranding it and making it disappear. A terrible example....

mutu wrote:

TOTAL TWADDLE. BA pays BAs pension contribution from its profits and cash and is now embarking on its own restructuring of the pension schemes.....IB was close to bust when the Spanish economy dived following the global financial crisis, something not envisaged when BA and IB merged to form IAG. IB today is actually a pretty decent carrier and profitable for the first time in many many years, and expanding in a controlled manner. As promised EI expansion TATL has begun. Indeed you may have noticed if you had any real knowledge of aviation that BA is being held steady to allow capacity at IB and EI to be expanded. BA and LHR are full enough that using DUB and .or MAD as alternative transit points seems to be the model for a while.

Please do your homework

Sorry, but IAG have caused huge damage to BA. Staff morale, conditions, frequent flyers, non-US long haul route network, service...

In fact to some degree at all their airlines they've committed the cardinal business sin of putting shareholders before customers, while treating staff poorly and lavishly rewarding management.

Yes, all the IAG stable of legacy carriers needed reform, yet they've gone about it in the wrong way, and one day they'll pay for it.

The ironic is LH used to have operation in Italy, LHItalia or something. It didn't last long but shutdown. Now LH may march into Italy in greater scale if they allowed to buy over AZ. Aviation market is always interesting.

Neither has LH not confirmed an interest to buy parts of AZ, nor have authorities approved of a possible purchase. LH is just one of a number of interested parties who have taken a look at the numbers at Az and the assets.

juliuswong wrote:

The ironic is LH used to have operation in Italy, LHItalia or something. It didn't last long but shutdown. Now LH may march into Italy in greater scale if they allowed to buy over AZ. Aviation market is always interesting.

They also had something to do with Air One.

Every time I see a new post in this thread I keep thinking it'll be some definite news about a last flight or something. Well I guess I'll have to wait a few more days/weeks.

Until it folds? With Ryanair grappling with what is arguably the worst crisis the company has faced since it was founded, I just can't see them seriously taking on AZ assets....Does AZ go the way of Monarch and Air Berlin?

Little more complicated.

This is a national airline when there arent supposed to be national airlines.

For Italy, in a convoluted way, Alitalia folding would be like LH folding to Germany or BA folding to Britain.

My bet, another bail out and AZ lives to see another day

It'll get picked apart like Air Berlin. It'll be a liquidation where other airlines buy up slots, some equipment and some parts of the business that are profitable but Alitalia will cease to exist. Air Berlin will provide the template for the liquidation process.

AZ is one of those airlines we will not stop flying, regardless of what happens. As jfklganyc said, for Italians AZ shutting down would be like any other flag carrier shutting down, locals will not let it happen. Swissair is an example of what would happen to Alitalia, emergency bailout and eventually sold to a major airline (Lufthansa Group or IAG). Air Berlin can't be compared with Alitalia, as they are in completely different leagues, one was a Lufthansa wannabe and the other is the flag carrier of Italy (and the Vatican City).

Fear it will drag on forever, NO Italian government wants to be remembered as the one that let the countries airline fold.

Waterbomber wrote:

I think that IAG would be an awesome option to proceed with a "good airline" AZ.
IAG did a good job with IB.

There was already a try at reforming Alitalia with a "good airline" plan with CAI. Then there was a second reform with Etihad. My question is, what do you think would be different if IAG took over? I'm sure IAG does not want to be the next CAI or Etihad.

The best thing to do is let the failed company die. Competitors will fill in where the market requires. We don't know who would step up but it could be 1000% better. What if someone like Blue Panorama stepped up in addition to neos.

The current company is broken and needs to be allowed to make way for a more successful venture.

CX747 wrote:

The best thing to do is let the failed company die.

Whatever that means for 14000 employees... or you mean following the path of AA and UA "being let fail"?

kitplane01 wrote:

Waterbomber wrote:

I think that IAG would be an awesome option to proceed with a "good airline" AZ.
IAG did a good job with IB.

There was already a try at reforming Alitalia with a "good airline" plan with CAI. Then there was a second reform with Etihad. My question is, what do you think would be different if IAG took over? I'm sure IAG does not want to be the next CAI or Etihad.

What could a new buyer really do? A major shake up is required.


With the extension for buyers, I'm guessing no good offer was on the table...

Lightsaber

lightsaber wrote:

kitplane01 wrote:

Waterbomber wrote:

I think that IAG would be an awesome option to proceed with a "good airline" AZ.
IAG did a good job with IB.

There was already a try at reforming Alitalia with a "good airline" plan with CAI. Then there was a second reform with Etihad. My question is, what do you think would be different if IAG took over? I'm sure IAG does not want to be the next CAI or Etihad.

What could a new buyer really do? A major shake up is required.

CAI already tried a "major shakeup". So did Etihad. Each in the face of a do-or-die level bankruptcy. For IAG to buy the airline they would need to believe that they have significantly better management that the first two efforts. They would need to believe they can get very significant concessions from other stakeholders (like the unions) when both previous efforts failed.

(So far) Lufthansa and Air France have both shied away from the challenge.

IAG did turn around Iberia. Maybe they think they can do it again. But that would take a double dose of self-confidence.

Any clue what will happen to that 77W that has been painted in Alitalia colors? The aircraft has been on the move lately.


https://twitter.com/FlyingLord/status/9 ... 4541469696
https://twitter.com/AirlineFlyer/status ... 2879609857

All I hear is a ticking clock, and this reporter in China, suggesting Chinese interest is still in play...
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2017- ... 665550.htm
My take is there will still be something in the air called Alitalia, but it will be a shadow of it's former self.

well with 600 mil in the belly and protection from creditors they can go on a long way.
With elections in spring I doubt there will be any decision before a new government takes office.