FAQ

WHAT IS THIS REPORT?
This compares departures for sale THIS WEEK for the stated period versus what was for sale LAST WEEK...It does NOT compare to last year or now (UNLESS OTHERWISE STATED).

THE SCHEDULES SHOWN HERE CHANGE AFTER YOU POST???
-To improve is to change; to be perfect is to change often---Winston Churchill. This is data the carriers filed at the point in time it was captured. It's changed since then. You are just going to have to live with it.

HOW DO I READ IT?
XXX-YYY DEC 4>5 JAN 4>5 ; means that the listed airline changed the frequency between the two airports to add from 4 to 5 roundtrips in December and January. No other months were changed. I only list one direction, although it is possible the listed change is only one way. It is too difficult to average the two directions. I assume the change is roundtrip and that is most often the case.

WHERE ARE SEATS SHOWN?
They aren't. This only shows departures.

HOW ARE THE DAILY DEPARTURES CALCULATED?
This report uses total operations for the month listed, divided over the days in the month.

WHAT ARE THE FRACTIONAL FLIGHTS?
Flights that do not operate every day of the month create fractional service. In most cases flights are rounded, but in the case of international service or markets with low frequency, fractions are shown. For example, if a flight operates 4 times in April it will show 4/30=0.133=0.1. Also , a flight that only operates once per week may vary between 0.1 and 0.2 because a weekday may repeat either 4 or 5 times depending on the month.

WHAT ABOUT CARRIERS THAT DON'T PUBLISH A SCHEDULE 9 MONTHS IN ADVANCE?
Most airlines publish schedules 11 months in advance. This report covers the next 9 months. That avoids seeing schedules as they are loaded. Several LCCs load their schedules less than 9 months into the future. I remove the schedule adds if I see them and show a year over year (YOY) comparison if I notice them.

THOSE FLIGHTS AREN'T DELTA, THEY ARE SKYWEST
This report only shows the marketing code. It is too complicated to show all the operators.

THE FREQUENCIES MAY HAVE CHANGED AS YOU SHOW, BUT THE SEATS DIDNT CHANGE BECAUSE OF EQUIPMENT SWAPS
That is a natural weakness of a frequency based report, but it provides something to discuss below.

THIS LOOKS LIKE AN ERROR?
The carriers file the schedules. They do make mistakes. Most of the mistakes I have seen are either related to code shares not being marked as "duplicates" or carriers filing flights with invalid data such as equipment codes that are not standard. This causes flights to not appear.

CHARTERS?
Lately charters have been showing up in the database. I have no idea if that will continue.

I marked some of the ones I thought were interesting with an "*".

3M FLL-ELH JUL 3>4 OCT 3>4 DEC 3>4
3M FLL-MHH JUL 3>4 SEP 3>4 DEC 3>4
3M MCO-MHH MAY 1.0>1.1 JUN 1.0>1.6 JUL 1.0>1.6 AUG 1.0>1.5 SEP 1.0>1.6 OCT 1.0>1.6 NOV 1.0>1.6 DEC 1.0>1.6

4O LAS-MEX MAY 1.0>1.1
4O LAS-MTY MAY 0.5>0.7

7I MIA-CUR MAY 1.0>0 JUN 1.0>0

*AA BOS-BUF AUG 1.9>1.0 SEP 3>0 OCT 3>0 NOV 3>0 DEC 3>0
AA CLT-CUR OCT 0.1>0
AA CLT-SJU OCT 1.0>0.9
AA CLT-SXM OCT 0.8>0.9
*AA DCA-FLL AUG 1.9>1.3 SEP 2>0 OCT 2>0 NOV 2>0 DEC 3>0.5
AA DFW-BOI AUG 1.7>1.1
AA DFW-ICT SEP 5>6 OCT 5>6
AA DFW-MTJ AUG 1.6>1.0
AA MIA-JAX SEP 5>4 OCT 5>4 NOV 5>4 DEC 5>4
AA MIA-SXM SEP 2>1.9 OCT 2>1.8
AA MIA-TGU NOV 1.9>1.8
AA PHL-BWI SEP 2>3 OCT 2>3 NOV 2>3 DEC 2>3
AA PHL-CMH SEP 5>6 OCT 5>6 NOV 5>6 DEC 5>6
AA PHL-NAS OCT 0.9>0.8
AA PHL-RDU SEP 7>8 OCT 7>8 NOV 7>8 DEC 7>8
AA PHL-STL SEP 4>5 OCT 4>5 NOV 4>5 DEC 4>5
AA PHX-CUN OCT 0.9>1.1
AA PHX-HMO OCT 1.0>0.9
AA PHX-ZIH OCT 0>0.1

AM BOS-MEX AUG 0.9>1.0
AM LAX-GDL JUN 3>2.0 JUL 3>2 AUG 3>2 SEP 3>2 OCT 3>2 NOV 3>2 DEC 3>2
AM SJC-GDL JUL 0.9>1.0

*AS PDX-DTW SEP 0>1.0 OCT 0>1.0 NOV 0>1.0 DEC 0>1.0
*AS PDX-JFK NOV 0>0.8 DEC 0>1.0

AT IAD-CMN NOV 0.4>0.6 DEC 0.4>0.5
AT JFK-CMN SEP 2>1.8 NOV 1.0>1.8 DEC 1.0>1.9

AV SFO-SAL JUL 1.5>1.6 AUG 1.4>1.6

B6 JFK-LRM NOV 0.1>0.3

BR SFO-TPE NOV 2>3

DL ATL-FLL JUL 15>16 AUG 14>16
DL ATL-SXM SEP 0.3>0.5
DL AUS-RDU DEC 0.7>0.5
DL BNA-RDU DEC 1.7>1.1
DL CVG-IAH DEC 1.6>1.0
DL CVG-MKE DEC 0.8>0.5
DL DTW-NGO NOV 0.7>0.6
DL DTW-SNA DEC 0.8>0.5
DL FLL-MSP SEP 0.2>1.0
*DL JFK-MAN OCT 0.1>0 NOV 1.0>0 DEC 1.0>0
*DL JFK-YHZ OCT 1.0>0 NOV 1.0>0 DEC 1.0>0
DL LAX-SFO DEC 11>12
DL LGA-TVC SEP 0.2>0.1
DL SLC-PHL DEC 1.2>0.9

*DY DEN-LGW SEP 0>0.2 OCT 0>0.3 NOV 0>0.4 DEC 0>0.4
*DY SEA-LGW SEP 0>0.3 OCT 0>0.6 NOV 0>0.6 DEC 0>0.6

GV BET-KWN MAY 0>3 JUN 0>3 JUL 0>3 AUG 0>3 SEP 0>3 OCT 0>3 NOV 0>3 DEC 0>3
GV BET-SCM MAY 3>4 JUN 3>4 JUL 3>4 AUG 3>4 SEP 3>4 OCT 3>4 NOV 3>4 DEC 3>4
GV HPB-VAK MAY 4>5 JUN 4>5 JUL 4>5 AUG 4>5 SEP 4>5 OCT 4>5 NOV 4>5 DEC 4>5

HA HNL-LAX DEC 2>3

JJ MCO-GRU AUG 1.5>1.4

K3 EDA-KTN JUN 0.6>0.4 SEP 0.6>0.4 DEC 0.6>0.4
K3 HYL-KTN JUN 0>0.9 JUL 0>0.8 AUG 0>0.9 SEP 0>0.8 OCT 0>0.8 NOV 0>0.9 DEC 0>0.8
K3 KLW-KTN JUN 1.7>0.9 JUL 1.6>0.8 AUG 1.7>0.9 SEP 1.7>0.8 OCT 1.7>0.8 NOV 1.7>0.9 DEC 1.7>0.8
K3 KPB-PPV DEC 0.6>0.4

*LF LIT-MSY MAY 1.7>0 JUN 1.7>0 JUL 1.7>0
*LF MEM-MSY MAY 1.0>0 JUN 1.0>0 JUL 1.0>0
*LF MSY-SHV MAY 1.7>0 JUN 1.7>0 JUL 1.7>0

LH CLT-MUC NOV 0.8>0.9 DEC 0.7>0.9

NK ATL-BWI OCT 1.0>1.7
*NK BWI-RSW JUN 0.5>0.3 SEP 0.8>0 OCT 1.0>0

*O6 MIA-GRU JUN 0>0.2 JUL 0>1.0 AUG 0>1.0 SEP 0>1.0 OCT 0>1.0 NOV 0>1.0 DEC 0>1.0

TOM SFB-BHX NOV 0>0.2 DEC 0>0.1
TOM SFB-BRS NOV 0>0.1 DEC 0>0.2
TOM SFB-EMA NOV 0>0.1 DEC 0>0.2
TOM SFB-GLA NOV 0>0.1 DEC 0>0.1
TOM SFB-LGW NOV 0>0.1 DEC 0>0.2
TOM SFB-MAN NOV 0>0.4 DEC 0>0.4
TOM SFB-NCL NOV 0>0.1 DEC 0>0.2

UA IAH-DEN SEP 12>11 OCT 12>11 NOV 12>11 DEC 12>11
UA LAX-DEN SEP 9>7 OCT 9>8 NOV 9>8 DEC 9>8
UA LAX-EWR AUG 12>11 SEP 12>11
UA LAX-IAH SEP 12>10
UA SFO-EWR SEP 15>14
UA SFO-IAD SEP 10>9
UA SFO-LAX SEP 14>13

VC BKG-MDW SEP 0.1>0.0

*VX FLL-JFK NOV 1.0>0 DEC 1.0>0
VX LAX-PHL SEP 0>1.0 OCT 0>1.0 NOV 0>1.0 DEC 0>1.0
VX LAX-SFO SEP 10>11 OCT 10>11 NOV 10>11 DEC 10>11

*WN GEG-SMF AUG 0>1.0 SEP 0>1.0 OCT 0>1.0
WN LAS-RNO JUN 10>9
*WN LGB-SMF AUG 0>2.0 SEP 0>2 OCT 0>2
WN SAN-SMF JUN 10>11 JUL 10>11 AUG 10>11 SEP 10>11 OCT 10>11
WN SEA-SMF JUN 4>6 JUL 4>6 AUG 4>6 SEP 4>6 OCT 4>6

WW LAX-KEF OCT 0.9>0.6
WW SFO-KEF OCT 0.9>0.5
q

well, that explains where PDX-JFK slot comes from

DL JFK-MAN is being given to VS year round.

enilria wrote:

*AA DCA-FLL AUG 1.9>1.3 SEP 2>0 OCT 2>0 NOV 2>0 DEC 3>0.5

Despite WN and B6, I did not imagine such an important market left by AA.

enilria wrote:

*DL JFK-MAN OCT 0.1>0 NOV 1.0>0 DEC 1.0>0

It seems that the transfer to Virgin starting in may will be extended to the winter schedules.

*AA BOS-BUF AUG 1.9>1.0 SEP 3>0 OCT 3>0 NOV 3>0 DEC 3>0
Can't say I'm surprised, with AA drawing down ZW flying and heavy competition from B6 it was only a matter of time. I bet DL will launch BOS-BUF soon enough though.

enilria wrote:

*AA BOS-BUF AUG 1.9>1.0 SEP 3>0 OCT 3>0 NOV 3>0 DEC 3>0
*AA DCA-FLL AUG 1.9>1.3 SEP 2>0 OCT 2>0 NOV 2>0 DEC 3>0.5

*AS PDX-JFK NOV 0>0.8 DEC 0>1.0

*VX FLL-JFK NOV 1.0>0 DEC 1.0>0

Thank you as always, enilria. Nothing better than OAG updates and iced coffee to start off my Sunday!

AA dropping BOS-BUF is not a total surprise, as AA continues to trim non-hub flying. I believe that leaves B6 as the only carrier in this market. In Q3 2016, B6 was the largest airline and low fare leader in the market, commanding an average fare of $131, which is actually quite strong for such a short trip. I bet DL will pick this up - presumably as a response when/if B6 enters BOS-MSP or BOS-CVG. (Just look at DL's reaction when B6 entered BOS-LGA/ATL.)

So is AA completely dropping DCA-FLL, except for some flights around the holidays? If so, that's very surprising. I bet B6 and WN are happy about this. As of Q3 2016, B6 is the largest airline in the market with an average fare of $140, while WN is the low fare leader with an average fare of $112 (ouch). Certainly there is room for yield improvement in this market, and AA's exit from the market should certainly help.

Good to see AS focus on its strengths by swapping FLL for PDX out of JFK. Although with competition from B6 and DL out of JFK, as well as UA out of EWR (not to mention AS's own PDX-EWR flight), it seems the market has picked up quite a bit of capacity over the past year or so. It will be interesting to see how this market performs for all airlines during the slower winter months.

enilria wrote:

*LF LIT-MSY MAY 1.7>0 JUN 1.7>0 JUL 1.7>0
*LF MEM-MSY MAY 1.0>0 JUN 1.0>0 JUL 1.0>0
*LF MSY-SHV MAY 1.7>0 JUN 1.7>0 JUL 1.7>0

Ouch. GLO Airlines' schedule being gutted close-in.

I wonder how long until B6 pulls out of SFO-LAS. IIRC, that route was launched to retaliate against VX's FLL-JFK.

Fares on SFO-LAS are consistently lower than LAX/LGB-LAS! I can't imagine this route is a money maker.

enilria wrote:

*AA BOS-BUF AUG 1.9>1.0 SEP 3>0 OCT 3>0 NOV 3>0 DEC 3>0

Weird tid bit, this flight is still bookable for Feb 11-14th for some reason.

jetbluefan1 wrote:

enilria wrote:

*AA DCA-FLL AUG 1.9>1.3 SEP 2>0 OCT 2>0 NOV 2>0 DEC 3>0.5

So is AA completely dropping DCA-FLL, except for some flights around the holidays?

Is that a fair conclusion? The route could come back after December, no? Oct/Nov are the low point of the year for DC-Florida travel.

AVLAirlineFreq wrote:

enilria wrote:

*LF LIT-MSY MAY 1.7>0 JUN 1.7>0 JUL 1.7>0
*LF MEM-MSY MAY 1.0>0 JUN 1.0>0 JUL 1.0>0
*LF MSY-SHV MAY 1.7>0 JUN 1.7>0 JUL 1.7>0

Ouch. GLO Airlines' schedule being gutted close-in.

These flights are still for sale as far as I know. This is probably just something to do with how these are filed for sale through travel sites.

masseybrown wrote:

jetbluefan1 wrote:

enilria wrote:

*AA DCA-FLL AUG 1.9>1.3 SEP 2>0 OCT 2>0 NOV 2>0 DEC 3>0.5

So is AA completely dropping DCA-FLL, except for some flights around the holidays?

Is that a fair conclusion? The route could come back after December, no? Oct/Nov are the low point of the year for DC-Florida travel.

Taking a look at a random days in Jan and Feb, AA appears to be operating DCA-FLL 1x with a 738. So this appears to be (1) a temporary suspension during the trough fall months and (2) a reduction in frequency during the peak winter months.

dfwking wrote:

I wonder how long until B6 pulls out of SFO-LAS. IIRC, that route was launched to retaliate against VX's FLL-JFK.

Fares on SFO-LAS are consistently lower than LAX/LGB-LAS! I can't imagine this route is a money maker.

I expect this to be dropped any day now. This route was an allergic reaction to VX entering JFK-FLL and never made any sense, especially given B6's gate constraints at SFO. With 4x to BOS, 6x to JFK, 6x to LGB, and 2x to FLL, B6 already pretty fully utilizes its two SFO gates. It might make more sense to use that time the LAS turn uses to load up a third fight to FLL.

The drop of BOS-BUF is stunning. If you know the history of that route, JetBlue came in strongly against US Airways' CRJ-200s monopoly, into a market where fares were extremely high. It had been a complete gravy train for US. JetBlue successfully used their image and superior product compared to the incumbent to now fully take over this lucrative market 8-9 years later. The inherent demand for this route will never go away. JetBlue now has its monopoly. Impressive. This will print a nice amount of cash for JetBlue every quarter. Unless DL moves in.

Alsatian wrote:

enilria wrote:

*AA DCA-FLL AUG 1.9>1.3 SEP 2>0 OCT 2>0 NOV 2>0 DEC 3>0.5

Despite WN and B6, I did not imagine such an important market left .

It resumes in December, but even so I agree.

aaflyer777 wrote:

*AA BOS-BUF AUG 1.9>1.0 SEP 3>0 OCT 3>0 NOV 3>0 DEC 3>0
Can't say I'm surprised, with AA drawing down ZW flying and heavy competition from B6 it was only a matter of time. I bet DL will launch BOS-BUF soon enough though.

It was early Christmas for B6.

jetbluefan1 wrote:

enilria wrote:

*AA BOS-BUF AUG 1.9>1.0 SEP 3>0 OCT 3>0 NOV 3>0 DEC 3>0
*AA DCA-FLL AUG 1.9>1.3 SEP 2>0 OCT 2>0 NOV 2>0 DEC 3>0.5

*AS PDX-JFK NOV 0>0.8 DEC 0>1.0

*VX FLL-JFK NOV 1.0>0 DEC 1.0>0

Thank you as always, enilria. Nothing better than OAG updates and iced coffee to start off my Sunday!

AA dropping BOS-BUF is not a total surprise, as AA continues to trim non-hub flying. I believe that leaves B6 as the only carrier in this market. In Q3 2016, B6 was the largest airline and low fare leader in the market, commanding an average fare of $131, which is actually quite strong for such a short trip. I bet DL will pick this up - presumably as a response when/if B6 enters BOS-MSP or BOS-CVG. (Just look at DL's reaction when B6 entered BOS-LGA/ATL.)

So is AA completely dropping DCA-FLL, except for some flights around the holidays? If so, that's very surprising. I bet B6 and WN are happy about this. As of Q3 2016, B6 is the largest airline in the market with an average fare of $140, while WN is the low fare leader with an average fare of $112 (ouch). Certainly there is room for yield improvement in this market, and AA's exit from the market should certainly help.

Good to see AS focus on its strengths by swapping FLL for PDX out of JFK. Although with competition from B6 and DL out of JFK, as well as UA out of EWR (not to mention AS's own PDX-EWR flight), it seems the market has picked up quite a bit of capacity over the past year or so. It will be interesting to see how this market performs for all airlines during the slower winter months.

Thanks
I'm assuming FLL is just a Fall suspension. Still surprising. Not unlike UA's on again and off again IAD-FLL.

dfwking wrote:

I wonder how long until B6 pulls out of SFO-LAS. IIRC, that route was launched to retaliate against VX's FLL-JFK.

Fares on SFO-LAS are consistently lower than LAX/LGB-LAS! I can't imagine this route is a money maker.

Good point.

enilria wrote:

*AA BOS-BUF AUG 1.9>1.0 SEP 3>0 OCT 3>0 NOV 3>0 DEC 3>0

aaflyer777 wrote:

Can't say I'm surprised, with AA drawing down ZW flying and heavy competition from B6 it was only a matter of time. I bet DL will launch BOS-BUF soon enough though.

I'm wondering if we'll see BOS-ROC/SYR/MDT gone soon too, although those routes don't have direct competition.

I dont see B6 dropping SFO-LAS.

theyre trying to bulk themselves up out West. even if the route loses money they just lost the bid for virgin and took it on the nose in Long Beach with the FIS facility. no way they run.

As for jetblues early Christmas present I would argue the opposite. Virgin just left a route that they couldn't compete on against jetblues multiple frequencies and they started a root that's very weak for jb and will make it weaker.

Flighty wrote:

The drop of BOS-BUF is stunning. If you know the history of that route, JetBlue came in strongly against US Airways' CRJ-200s monopoly, into a market where fares were extremely high. It had been a complete gravy train for US. JetBlue successfully used their image and superior product compared to the incumbent to now fully take over this lucrative market 8-9 years later. The inherent demand for this route will never go away. JetBlue now has its monopoly. Impressive. This will print a nice amount of cash for JetBlue every quarter. Unless DL moves in.

I'm not sure what's so "stunning." As said - JetBlue has lower costs and a better product. It's a pretty common pattern that has played out across the country for the last several decades - lower-cost new entrants can afford lower fares, driving higher-cost network airlines out of route after route.

Menzenski wrote:

I'm wondering if we'll see BOS-ROC/SYR/MDT gone soon too, although those routes don't have direct competition.

Despite the lack of nonstop competition, I suspect that most if not all of these routes will also be gone in the not too distant future due to the aforementioned steady drawdown in 50-seat RJ flying within the AA network. Indeed, AA's only current all-Eagle route of BOS that I can actually plausibly envision surviving - hopefully - is PIT, which I suspect could support upgauging from 3x CR2 to, say, 3x CR7. Beyond that, and potentially - again, hopefully! - the return of RDU, it's hard to imagine there being much of a market for a lot of the remaining BOS Eagle flying as 50-seat RJs become more and more scarce.

Wait a minute.. Didn't DL just start JFK-YHZ?

klwright69 wrote:

Wait a minute.. Didn't DL just start JFK-YHZ?

Yes. Service (re)started in early January. I don't think it's that surprising, though. YHZ skews fairly leisure-oriented from the U.S., and it's highly seasonal, and the recent impact of exchange rates on such routes to Canada has been discussed in the past. So if this route isn't going seasonal, and is indeed being cut altogether, this will represent Delta (re)exiting the YHZ market, following AA's (re)exit from PHL last year. So that means that, absent the vacation routes to Florida, YHZ-U.S. will now be down to just EWR and BOS - which, I believe, is pretty much what the market supported for years up until the mid-to-late 2000s.

jfklganyc wrote:

As for jetblues early Christmas present I would argue the opposite. Virgin just left a route that they couldn't compete on against jetblues multiple frequencies and they started a root that's very weak for jb and will make it weaker.

I agree that Virgin America was not a serious competitive threat to JetBlue JFK-FLL with its single daily frequency on a route JetBlue dominates. What's the route Virgin just started that's weak for JetBlue?

commavia wrote:

I agree that Virgin America was not a serious competitive threat to JetBlue JFK-FLL with its single daily frequency on a route JetBlue dominates. What's the route Virgin just started that's weak for JetBlue?

He's referring to the new AS PDX-JFK route. Agreed that it's a weak route for B6, and is part of B6's relatively weak non-Mint transcon franchise from JFK. That said, after Mint is rolled out to SAN, SEA, and LAS over the next few quarters, I wouldn't be surprised to see it introduced to PDX as well (and, perhaps, to SJC). It also wouldn't surprise me to see B6 beef up frequencies in these markets, what with oil remaining pretty consistently in the $45-$55/bbl range over the past year, and no signs of that changing (unless, of course, geopolitical tensions flare up even further).

commavia wrote:

Flighty wrote:

The drop of BOS-BUF is stunning. If you know the history of that route, JetBlue came in strongly against US Airways' CRJ-200s monopoly, into a market where fares were extremely high. It had been a complete gravy train for US. JetBlue successfully used their image and superior product compared to the incumbent to now fully take over this lucrative market 8-9 years later. The inherent demand for this route will never go away. JetBlue now has its monopoly. Impressive. This will print a nice amount of cash for JetBlue every quarter. Unless DL moves in.

I'm not sure what's so "stunning." As said - JetBlue has lower costs and a better product. It's a pretty common pattern that has played out across the country for the last several decades - lower-cost new entrants can afford lower fares, driving higher-cost network airlines out of route after route.

Menzenski wrote:

I'm wondering if we'll see BOS-ROC/SYR/MDT gone soon too, although those routes don't have direct competition.

Despite the lack of nonstop competition, I suspect that most if not all of these routes will also be gone in the not too distant future due to the aforementioned steady drawdown in 50-seat RJ flying within the AA network. Indeed, AA's only current all-Eagle route of BOS that I can actually plausibly envision surviving - hopefully - is PIT, which I suspect could support upgauging from 3x CR2 to, say, 3x CR7. Beyond that, and potentially - again, hopefully! - the return of RDU, it's hard to imagine there being much of a market for a lot of the remaining BOS Eagle flying as 50-seat RJs become more and more scarce.

If MDT and SYR are cut by AA, I don't see anyone else coming in to supplement the vacancy. According to ROC, there has been increased talks in B6 starting ROC-BOS in the near future, as seen here from the minutes log from the last meeting.

http://imgur.com/a/b1yHE

Once B6 comes in with BOS-ROC, AA is gone.

ROCDLFAN wrote:

If MDT and SYR are cut by AA, I don't see anyone else coming in to supplement the vacancy. According to ROC, there has been increased talks in B6 starting ROC-BOS in the near future, as seen here from the minutes log from the last meeting.

http://imgur.com/a/b1yHE

Once B6 comes in with BOS-ROC, AA is gone.

Agree on all counts. I suspect JetBlue may well eventually enter BOS-BUF, but that both BOS-MDT and BOS-SYR are likely to lose nonstop service altogether if (when) AA/Eagle exit these markets.

ROCDLFAN wrote:

commavia wrote:

Flighty wrote:

The drop of BOS-BUF is stunning. If you know the history of that route, JetBlue came in strongly against US Airways' CRJ-200s monopoly, into a market where fares were extremely high. It had been a complete gravy train for US. JetBlue successfully used their image and superior product compared to the incumbent to now fully take over this lucrative market 8-9 years later. The inherent demand for this route will never go away. JetBlue now has its monopoly. Impressive. This will print a nice amount of cash for JetBlue every quarter. Unless DL moves in.

I'm not sure what's so "stunning." As said - JetBlue has lower costs and a better product. It's a pretty common pattern that has played out across the country for the last several decades - lower-cost new entrants can afford lower fares, driving higher-cost network airlines out of route after route.

Menzenski wrote:

I'm wondering if we'll see BOS-ROC/SYR/MDT gone soon too, although those routes don't have direct competition.

Despite the lack of nonstop competition, I suspect that most if not all of these routes will also be gone in the not too distant future due to the aforementioned steady drawdown in 50-seat RJ flying within the AA network. Indeed, AA's only current all-Eagle route of BOS that I can actually plausibly envision surviving - hopefully - is PIT, which I suspect could support upgauging from 3x CR2 to, say, 3x CR7. Beyond that, and potentially - again, hopefully! - the return of RDU, it's hard to imagine there being much of a market for a lot of the remaining BOS Eagle flying as 50-seat RJs become more and more scarce.

If MDT and SYR are cut by AA, I don't see anyone else coming in to supplement the vacancy. According to ROC, there has been increased talks in B6 starting ROC-BOS in the near future, as seen here from the minutes log from the last meeting.

http://imgur.com/a/b1yHE

Once B6 comes in with BOS-ROC, AA is gone.

I can see BOS-SYR/ROC/ALB and BUF all on DL at some point. JMO

deltal1011man wrote:

I can see BOS-SYR/ROC/ALB and BUF all on DL at some point. JMO

BOS-SYR/ROC/BUF I can see on Delta, but not ALB-BOS. It's a 2-2.5 hour straight shot down I-90 between the two cities (145 miles) and would be all O&D traffic. Cape Air with their 3x daily Cessnas is the perfect combination of gauge and frequency for this market.

deltairlines wrote:

BOS-SYR/ROC/BUF I can see on Delta, but not ALB-BOS. It's a 2-2.5 hour straight shot down I-90 between the two cities (145 miles) and would be all O&D traffic. Cape Air with their 3x daily Cessnas is the perfect combination of gauge and frequency for this market.

Agree - the others, maybe, but ALB seems too short a mission for an RJ to be economical in this day and age. And frankly, even with the other three, Delta would likely run into the same issue AA faced - stiff competition from JetBlue offering arguably as good or better a product at very competitive fares. If these markets were going to be considerable feed contributors for Delta at BOS, I could see it more, but there's really no connecting traffic flow Delta could offer over BOS that isn't already available over the combination JFK, LGA, DTW, etc. So that basically brings you down to the local market and, as mentioned, I think JetBlue is naturally always going to dominate the local market on these types of routes if/when it enters. We'll see. I do agree that Delta has a better chance than AA of sustaining these types of routes out of BOS - but I'm frankly even a bit skeptical about Delta.

enilria wrote:

*AA BOS-BUF AUG 1.9>1.0 SEP 3>0 OCT 3>0 NOV 3>0 DEC 3>0
*AA DCA-FLL AUG 1.9>1.3 SEP 2>0 OCT 2>0 NOV 2>0 DEC 3>0.5

More evidence that AA isn't interested in competing with B6.
Also, with BOS-BUF leaving, is it fair to say that BOS-SYR/ROC and DCA-ROC are the only legacy Mohawk routes left in the AA network? How much longer before we can say DCA-ROC is the only route from Mohawk that is still flown?

enilria wrote:

*DL JFK-MAN OCT 0.1>0 NOV 1.0>0 DEC 1.0>0

Am I wrong in thinking that VS is taking over this route?

commavia wrote:

deltairlines wrote:

BOS-SYR/ROC/BUF I can see on Delta, but not ALB-BOS. It's a 2-2.5 hour straight shot down I-90 between the two cities (145 miles) and would be all O&D traffic. Cape Air with their 3x daily Cessnas is the perfect combination of gauge and frequency for this market.

Agree - the others, maybe, but ALB seems too short a mission for an RJ to be economical in this day and age. And frankly, even with the other three, Delta would likely run into the same issue AA faced - stiff competition from JetBlue offering arguably as good or better a product at very competitive fares. If these markets were going to be considerable feed contributors for Delta at BOS, I could see it more, but there's really no connecting traffic flow Delta could offer over BOS that isn't already available over the combination JFK, LGA, DTW, etc. So that basically brings you down to the local market and, as mentioned, I think JetBlue is naturally always going to dominate the local market on these types of routes if/when it enters. We'll see. I do agree that Delta has a better chance than AA of sustaining these types of routes out of BOS - but I'm frankly even a bit skeptical about Delta.

DL has shown that it is willing to try new markets out of BOS to stick it to B6 (see recently entries to BOS-SFO/BNA and increases in other B6 markets). BOS-BUF seems prime to block B6 from having a monopoly, although I question if DL could realistically make any money in this market. But I don't see DL entering a market like BOS-SYR/ROC to preempt B6. If anything, I expect DL to use its ample BOS resources to enter more important business markets that B6 services, such as PIT, CLE, or ORD.

N717TW wrote:

enilria wrote:

*DL JFK-MAN OCT 0.1>0 NOV 1.0>0 DEC 1.0>0

Am I wrong in thinking that VS is taking over this route?

For Fall it was suppose to go back to DL, but it appears likely that has changed.

deltairlines wrote:

deltal1011man wrote:

I can see BOS-SYR/ROC/ALB and BUF all on DL at some point. JMO

BOS-SYR/ROC/BUF I can see on Delta, but not ALB-BOS. It's a 2-2.5 hour straight shot down I-90 between the two cities (145 miles) and would be all O&D traffic. Cape Air with their 3x daily Cessnas is the perfect combination of gauge and frequency for this market.

Exactly. I used to work in Worcester and Boston, and the drive to Albany far outweighs the hassles of flying. Besides, driving in the autumn was spectacular.

commavia wrote:

Flighty wrote:

The drop of BOS-BUF is stunning. If you know the history of that route, JetBlue came in strongly against US Airways' CRJ-200s monopoly, into a market where fares were extremely high. It had been a complete gravy train for US. JetBlue successfully used their image and superior product compared to the incumbent to now fully take over this lucrative market 8-9 years later. The inherent demand for this route will never go away. JetBlue now has its monopoly. Impressive. This will print a nice amount of cash for JetBlue every quarter. Unless DL moves in.

I'm not sure what's so "stunning." As said - JetBlue has lower costs and a better product. It's a pretty common pattern that has played out across the country for the last several decades - lower-cost new entrants can afford lower fares, driving higher-cost network airlines out of route after route.

I guess, I think of the market as relatively stagnant in recent years, legacies (including WN) holding immense power and LCCs nipping at the edges.

This was a good win for JetBlue. It's an actual money maker, not one of these SEA-HKG foo foo routes. JetBlue beat a legacy out of a true legacy market.

jetbluefan1 wrote:

DL has shown that it is willing to try new markets out of BOS to stick it to B6 (see recently entries to BOS-SFO/BNA and increases in other B6 markets). BOS-BUF seems prime to block B6 from having a monopoly, although I question if DL could realistically make any money in this market. But I don't see DL entering a market like BOS-SYR/ROC to preempt B6. If anything, I expect DL to use its ample BOS resources to enter more important business markets that B6 services, such as PIT, CLE, or ORD.

While I agree that DL is playing a passive-egressive game with B6 in BOS and that the BNA launch might be one of those routes, I really find it hard to believe that SFO is.

It just isn't in DL's behavior to tie up two Int'l equipped aircraft that they could use elsewhere on a route to make things difficult for a competitor. They absolutely do on RJs and there are probably a bunch of 319 or M90 routes that are arguably retaliatory/predatory. If you look at the SEA build up, they have pulled back, down-gauged and dropped Int'l flying (HND, KIX, HKG, PVG, NRT) but not narrow-body domestic. DL entered BOS-SFO b/c it helps with corporate accounts and they have determined that they can make money on that route. There is a lot of academic, tech and finance industry traffic on that route--and a lot of paid first-class.

I see DTW-SNA is pushed back a week, would this be a slot issue or aircraft utilization?

enilria wrote:

N717TW wrote:

enilria wrote:

*DL JFK-MAN OCT 0.1>0 NOV 1.0>0 DEC 1.0>0

Am I wrong in thinking that VS is taking over this route?

For Fall it was suppose to go back to DL, but it appears likely that has changed.

Couple of weeks ago, you posted this
posting.php?mode=quote&f=3&t=1360113&p=19464031

enilria wrote:

VS ATL-MAN NOV 1.0>0.4
VS JFK-MAN NOV 0>0.5

Moronic planning, coming weeks after that they trumpet a 26% increase in seats ex-MAN for the summer yet decide to decimate ATL and JFK in winter to such an extent that business travellers will seek other options

DL doesn't even do NYC-ALB. No way they are resuming ALB-BOS.

USAirALB wrote:

DL doesn't even do NYC-ALB. No way they are resuming ALB-BOS.

There's a dozen trains per day carrying ~350 seats each with a 2:35 running time and they terminate Midtown. No one flies ALB-LGA/JFK. Even if you're flying TATL, from ALB people will just drive to JFK (UA does fly to EWR.)

N717TW wrote:

jetbluefan1 wrote:

DL has shown that it is willing to try new markets out of BOS to stick it to B6 (see recently entries to BOS-SFO/BNA and increases in other B6 markets). BOS-BUF seems prime to block B6 from having a monopoly, although I question if DL could realistically make any money in this market. But I don't see DL entering a market like BOS-SYR/ROC to preempt B6. If anything, I expect DL to use its ample BOS resources to enter more important business markets that B6 services, such as PIT, CLE, or ORD.

While I agree that DL is playing a passive-egressive game with B6 in BOS and that the BNA launch might be one of those routes, I really find it hard to believe that SFO is.

BNA-BOS is a shot at AA at BNA (where they compete for legacy of choice), not B6 at BOS (where DL is and likely always will be way behind). Why would they compete with B6 for second fiddle on BNA-BOS when there are comparable opportunities ex-BOS without WN?

commavia wrote:

klwright69 wrote:

Wait a minute.. Didn't DL just start JFK-YHZ?

Yes. Service (re)started in early January. I don't think it's that surprising, though. YHZ skews fairly leisure-oriented from the U.S., and it's highly seasonal, and the recent impact of exchange rates on such routes to Canada has been discussed in the past. So if this route isn't going seasonal, and is indeed being cut altogether, this will represent Delta (re)exiting the YHZ market, following AA's (re)exit from PHL last year. So that means that, absent the vacation routes to Florida, YHZ-U.S. will now be down to just EWR and BOS - which, I believe, is pretty much what the market supported for years up until the mid-to-late 2000s.

jfklganyc wrote:

As for jetblues early Christmas present I would argue the opposite. Virgin just left a route that they couldn't compete on against jetblues multiple frequencies and they started a root that's very weak for jb and will make it weaker.

I agree that Virgin America was not a serious competitive threat to JetBlue JFK-FLL with its single daily frequency on a route JetBlue dominates. What's the route Virgin just started that's weak for JetBlue?

I'm hoping it remains at least seasonally....I may not use flights to NYC much but it'd be nice having SOME choice.

commavia wrote:

Flighty wrote:

The drop of BOS-BUF is stunning. If you know the history of that route, JetBlue came in strongly against US Airways' CRJ-200s monopoly, into a market where fares were extremely high. It had been a complete gravy train for US. JetBlue successfully used their image and superior product compared to the incumbent to now fully take over this lucrative market 8-9 years later. The inherent demand for this route will never go away. JetBlue now has its monopoly. Impressive. This will print a nice amount of cash for JetBlue every quarter. Unless DL moves in.

I'm not sure what's so "stunning." As said - JetBlue has lower costs and a better product. It's a pretty common pattern that has played out across the country for the last several decades - lower-cost new entrants can afford lower fares, driving higher-cost network airlines out of route after route.



Well has much has i love AA and I agree with the pattern you mention, DL seems to be bucking the trend. I wish AA would look at a focus city or and PTP opportunities.

N717TW wrote:

More evidence that AA isn't interested in competing with B6.
Also, with BOS-BUF leaving, is it fair to say that BOS-SYR/ROC and DCA-ROC are the only legacy Mohawk routes left in the AA network? How much longer before we can say DCA-ROC is the only route from Mohawk that is still flown?

According to the February 1, 1972 Mohawk timetable: BUF-DCA and SYR-DCA were nonstop routes. Both are flown today by AA. ROC-DCA was operated as a one-stop landing in BUF. In the June 1, 1972, timetable, UA was operating DCA-ROC nonstop.

I wouldn't be surprised to see JetBlue begin ROC-BOS with say 2x daily EMB-190, and AA withdraw.

Jim

Im glad LH is adding capacity to CLT-MUC, I thought this route was about to end. Now Im concerned about AA's CLT-FRA and PHL-MUC routes, AA has always been pretty weak in Germany. Im also sad to see WW reducing capacity on LAX and SFO, they started it just recently.

When US/AA merged, I said they would be down to hub service when all was said and done.

I still believe that to be the case

I watched AA hand BOS to B6 when I was working for them. I also watched AA hand JFK to Islands to B6. They are not interested.

BOS will serve hubs only (with high frequency) in short order.

Cubsrule wrote:

N717TW wrote:

jetbluefan1 wrote:

DL has shown that it is willing to try new markets out of BOS to stick it to B6 (see recently entries to BOS-SFO/BNA and increases in other B6 markets). BOS-BUF seems prime to block B6 from having a monopoly, although I question if DL could realistically make any money in this market. But I don't see DL entering a market like BOS-SYR/ROC to preempt B6. If anything, I expect DL to use its ample BOS resources to enter more important business markets that B6 services, such as PIT, CLE, or ORD.

While I agree that DL is playing a passive-egressive game with B6 in BOS and that the BNA launch might be one of those routes, I really find it hard to believe that SFO is.

BNA-BOS is a shot at AA at BNA (where they compete for legacy of choice), not B6 at BOS (where DL is and likely always will be way behind). Why would they compete with B6 for second fiddle on BNA-BOS when there are comparable opportunities ex-BOS without WN?

To keep B6 from getting a toe hold. You're right, DL at this point probably is stronger than AA in BNA as the "legacy of choice" but I'm pretty confident that AA isn't looking at adding BOS-BNA (they are slowly cutting all non-hub routes from BOS). WN on the other hand isn't particularly strong for BOS originating based traffic--not too many WN passengers at Logan are pronouncing things with long As or non-rhotic Rs.

Welp, that breaks my heart that VX is dropping the FLL-JFK pair. That was the only way I could fly them since I'm never out west. I always thought it was a funky route for them anyways, but it did give me an excuse to go out of my way to JFK. Oh well, back to flying AA/B6 for me.

N717TW wrote:

Cubsrule wrote:

N717TW wrote:

While I agree that DL is playing a passive-egressive game with B6 in BOS and that the BNA launch might be one of those routes, I really find it hard to believe that SFO is.

BNA-BOS is a shot at AA at BNA (where they compete for legacy of choice), not B6 at BOS (where DL is and likely always will be way behind). Why would they compete with B6 for second fiddle on BNA-BOS when there are comparable opportunities ex-BOS without WN?

To keep B6 from getting a toe hold. You're right, DL at this point probably is stronger than AA in BNA as the "legacy of choice" but I'm pretty confident that AA isn't looking at adding BOS-BNA (they are slowly cutting all non-hub routes from BOS). WN on the other hand isn't particularly strong for BOS originating based traffic--not too many WN passengers at Logan are pronouncing things with long As or non-rhotic Rs.

The AA/DL question really depends on destinations. AA's hubs are in larger O&D markets and are generally better located, while DL has ATL. That's not an obvious universal choice.

Alsatian wrote:

enilria wrote:

*AA DCA-FLL AUG 1.9>1.3 SEP 2>0 OCT 2>0 NOV 2>0 DEC 3>0.5

Despite WN and B6, I did not imagine such an important market left by AA.

Once again, showing how hard it can be serving an alternate airport in your hub city.

cledaybuck wrote:

Alsatian wrote:

enilria wrote:

*AA DCA-FLL AUG 1.9>1.3 SEP 2>0 OCT 2>0 NOV 2>0 DEC 3>0.5

Despite WN and B6, I did not imagine such an important market left by AA.

Once again, showing how hard it can be serving an alternate airport in your hub city.

In general I agree, although DCA is also clearly a hub, so that's why they should be able to make it work. To drop it completely for even a few months is pretty sad.

I think we really are seeing AA move all their chips to ORD to fight UA. I will probably be pilloried for saying this, but I know for a fact there is a "retaliation budget" at a number of large airlines. It isn't a line item in writing anywhere, but there is a number spoken of that they are willing to spend in losses making points to other airlines. This is why retaliation often doesn't last that long. When something new happens they have to pull flying from another area of retaliation to make the point on the new incursion. This "budget" is in place because if there wasn't one it would noticeably impact earnings and they don't want that to happen. So, they keep in reined in with a "budget". Often it is a % of profits, for example, they are willing to reduce total profits by x% for these efforts and that is the "budget". It's basically loss-leading. I'm sure Amazon, Kroger, BestBuy, and Macy's also have a budget for it.

It's interesting here because this appears to be a reallocation of the loss-leading budget more because of staff changes (execs leaving AA for UA) and less because of route moves. Basically B6 benefits on DCA-FLL and BOS-BUF because AA is now focused on UA and pressuring ORD. It's all quite interesting. UA says they won't back down further in LAX and AA says they will push UA out of ORD. It's quite the epic battle brewing.

jfklganyc wrote:

BOS will serve hubs only (with high frequency) in short order.

High frequency is relative and one can say the great frequency that was once offered is no longer there on BOS-PHL anymore. Last flight in late June (peak season right) on BOS-PHL is 7:25pm. It won't even be dark when the flight takes off.

Meanwhile Southwest has 8:25pm and 9:05pm departing flights out of BOS to BWI, and it's a slightly longer distance.

AA still commands a long lead compared to DL at Logan. Almost double. Now, whether discontinuing the AA Eagle destinations mounts to a significant reduction in their market share is questionable. Massport is also spending close to $500M for revamping Terminal B operations - the number of gates that AA and US have combined today in Logan is not going to be significantly different after the revamp happens. In other words, net reduction of some 3-4 gates. AA/US have a good FF affiliation in addition to codeshare with OneWorld partners and hopefully in the long run, they come with good options but in the short run, cutting the smaller destinations - MDT, SYR, ROC does not look unlikely. B6 anyways flies to SYR and ROC so adding BOS does not look unlikely considering their superior product.

enilria wrote:

cledaybuck wrote:

Alsatian wrote:

Despite WN and B6, I did not imagine such an important market left by AA.

Once again, showing how hard it can be serving an alternate airport in your hub city.

In general I agree, although DCA is also clearly a hub, so that's why they should be able to make it work. To drop it completely for even a few months is pretty sad.

DCA may be a hub (although more O&D focused than most), but it still has the same problem. Inferior schedule. If you are an AA loyalist who wants to fly to/from SE Florida, the schedule at MIA is vastly superior. If you specifically want to go to FLL, other airlines have a superior schedule. The only way for AA to compete is on price, thus undercutting themselves at MIA. It is the reason I don't think DAL will ever work well for AA.

enilria wrote:

In general I agree, although DCA is also clearly a hub, so that's why they should be able to make it work. To drop it completely for even a few months is pretty sad.

DCA is a slot restricted hub. AA doesn't fly JFK-FLL or LGA-FLL either, as AA use it's slots in what it feels is priority, so it isn't anything to feel sad for. DCA is also bracketed by CLT and PHL for north-south connections useable for FLL as a destination or point of sale, anyways.