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Irehdna
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Air India to Lease B787-9

Mon Apr 03, 2017 12:29 pm

It seems plans for widebody updates have finally come! AI just got approved to lease seven 787-900 aircraft. They will use them to start non-stop flights from Delhi to southern US cities like DFW, IAH, and LAX.

http://www.financialexpress.com/industr ... -9/613229/
 
GamingPolaris
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Re: Air India to Lease B787-9

Mon Apr 03, 2017 12:33 pm

Judging by Star Alliance presence in those airports, I believe IAH is in the lead with DFW as a runner up.
 
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BawliBooch
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Re: Air India to Lease B787-9

Mon Apr 03, 2017 12:37 pm

Going by past history, the journey from Board approval to induction is a long & tedious one - on an average 5 years. The induction of 14 A320's on dry-lease happened 5+ years after board approval. This is an airline whose board once approved the induction of mythical 747-400 Combi's with 3 man cockpit.

So 2023-25 or so, the 787-9's will start coming in. by which time some of the 787-8's - atleast the initial lot of lemons that AI received- will be ready for the scrap heap.
 
whywhyzee
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Re: Air India to Lease B787-9

Mon Apr 03, 2017 12:55 pm

Also mentions YVR and YYZ, just saying. Don't forget us up here!
 
toxtethogrady
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Re: Air India to Lease B787-9

Mon Apr 03, 2017 1:25 pm

GamingPolaris wrote:
Judging by Star Alliance presence in those airports, I believe IAH is in the lead with DFW as a runner up.


I'd like to think Texas, and maybe IAH, will be a destination, but AI hasn't figured out how to turn a profit on their routes to the US that are outside of New York, so who knows?
 
audian
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Re: Air India to Lease B787-9

Mon Apr 03, 2017 1:48 pm

Will DFW and IAH fall within the range of a 787-9 operating from DEL?
Last edited by audian on Mon Apr 03, 2017 2:10 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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gatibosgru
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Re: Air India to Lease B787-9

Mon Apr 03, 2017 1:54 pm

That article triggered my OCD! It's 787-9 or 787-8, not 900/800 ¬¬
 
9w748capt
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Re: Air India to Lease B787-9

Mon Apr 03, 2017 3:10 pm

audian wrote:
Will DFW and IAH fall within the range of a 787-9 operating from DEL?


I can't imagine it won't? Just a matter of time until the 789 operates LHR-PER, so IAH-DEL should be a breeze in comparison.
 
kaitak
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Re: Air India to Lease B787-9

Mon Apr 03, 2017 6:04 pm

BawliBooch wrote:
. This is an airline whose board once approved the induction of mythical 747-400 Combi's with 3 man cockpit.
.


In fairness, they never operated the -400 Combi, just the -400; the -300s they operated were Combis (and of course had to have F/Es!)

I know AI wanted to introduced -9s a while back, but were refused permission. Thankfully, this will now happen. I note that they are being leased; does AI not have any outstanding orders that it can convert to -9s?

As to delays, I hope that the airline recognises the importance of getting these aircraft into service, given the intense competition AI faces. Presumably they have already identified a lessor, in which case that lessor presumably has 789s to place with carriers and has defined delivery dates.
 
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TWA772LR
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Re: Air India to Lease B787-9

Mon Apr 03, 2017 6:16 pm

Houston has been wanting a n/s India link for a long time and has been in talks with AI before. I've always wanted to see a link too, but on UA for selfish reasons.

With the ME3 handling connecting (lower yielding) connecting flows, AI may be able to walk away with some cash if they go after n/s US routes with the right aircraft and competitive premium product. I don't know why, but I've always had some kind of affinity for AI, I hope they do well!

I hope this becomes true!
 
subramak1
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Re: Air India to Lease B787-9

Mon Apr 03, 2017 6:17 pm

BawliBooch wrote:
Going by past history, the journey from Board approval to induction is a long & tedious one - on an average 5 years. The induction of 14 A320's on dry-lease happened 5+ years after board approval. This is an airline whose board once approved the induction of mythical 747-400 Combi's with 3 man cockpit.

So 2023-25 or so, the 787-9's will start coming in. by which time some of the 787-8's - atleast the initial lot of lemons that AI received- will be ready for the scrap heap.


There is a new management in place otherwise AI would have ordered A380s to support these routes. I am more optimistic about AI..

Subu
 
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BawliBooch
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Re: Air India to Lease B787-9

Mon Apr 03, 2017 7:03 pm

kaitak wrote:
In fairness, they never operated the -400 Combi, just the -400; the -300s they operated were Combis (and of course had to have F/Es!)

They operated 2 743 Combis. But they were looking to acquire 744 Combi's to replace them and the board approved induction of 744 Combis with 3 man crew - which do not exist. They were negotiating with Air Canada for a couple of 744 Combis before abandoning that search.

kaitak wrote:
I know AI wanted to introduced -9s a while back, but were refused permission. Thankfully, this will now happen. I note that they are being leased; does AI not have any outstanding orders that it can convert to -9s?

Nobody refused permission. AI was planning to convert some of the existing 787-8 orders into -9's as part of the compensation package they were demanding. Boeing refused. The denial of permission was to buy/lease fresh aircraft while the restructuring process was underway.

subramak1 wrote:
There is a new management in place otherwise AI would have ordered A380s to support these routes. I am more optimistic about AI..
Subu


Ha ha ha! There is no new management. Ashwani Lohani is certainly good at running his personal PR - but on the ground NOTHING has changed.
 
EK006
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Re: Air India to Lease B787-9

Mon Apr 03, 2017 7:22 pm

toxtethogrady wrote:
GamingPolaris wrote:
Judging by Star Alliance presence in those airports, I believe IAH is in the lead with DFW as a runner up.


I'd like to think Texas, and maybe IAH, will be a destination, but AI hasn't figured out how to turn a profit on their routes to the US that are outside of New York, so who knows?


I believe DEL-SFO has been quite profitable for AI as it has seen a recent increase in weekly flights and DEL-ORD is also profitable for AI. Also BOM-EWR was one of AI worst performing routes and lost them a lot of money and this was reported widely on A.net.

It is good to see AI obtain B787-9, but it would be beneficial for it too make routes like DEL-SYD daily and possibly another daily or additional frequencies on other India-US routes before venturing into new routes. Also DEL-IAH/DFW are long routes and yields could become quite bad. Would be interesting to know PDEW between DEL-IAH/DFW.

I would also think that DEL-BOS could come before any of the routes stated above as it is not only a shorter route but is also a large market.
 
Irehdna
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Re: Air India to Lease B787-9

Mon Apr 03, 2017 8:00 pm

EK006 wrote:
I believe DEL-SFO has been quite profitable for AI as it has seen a recent increase in weekly flights and DEL-ORD is also profitable for AI. Also BOM-EWR was one of AI worst performing routes and lost them a lot of money and this was reported widely on A.net.


All AI routes to USA except BOM-EWR (almost forgot that still exists) are operating well, at least close to breaking even.

Truthfully I don't know why BOM-EWR by AI still exists. UA flies that route, and seems to take much more of the business/yield traffic than AI. The route nearly overflies their DEL hub and feels very out-of-place in their current network. (BOM-HKG and BOM-CDG/FRA/JFK don't exist by AI, why is NEWARK out of all other places still there?)

AI should either start a DEL-EWR flight that connects well to onward AMD/HYD flights (large Telugu/Gujarati diaspora) and code-share on UA EWR-BOM, or discontinue nonstop EWR all together. They need to focus on an organized system. In the latter case they could resend the 777 to other destinations with more demand.

EK006 wrote:
It is good to see AI obtain B787-9, but it would be beneficial for it too make routes like DEL-SYD daily and possibly another daily or additional frequencies on other India-US routes before venturing into new routes. Also DEL-IAH/DFW are long routes and yields could become quite bad. Would be interesting to know PDEW between DEL-IAH/DFW.

I would also think that DEL-BOS could come before any of the routes stated above as it is not only a shorter route but is also a large market.


DEL-BOM/SYD/LHR/JFK seem to be the flagship AI routes. They have flight numbers 102/302/111/101 respectively, and connect India to not only powerful global cities, but also those with historically large Indian populations. I wouldn't be surprised if they upgrade DEL-SYD to B789 or even 77W, though I don't know the current demand for the flight, so recommending capacity upgrades is best reserved to those with more knowledge in that market.

AI should definitely consider a 2nd DEL-JFK or replace BOM-EWR with DEL-EWR (the reasons are explained above). BOS also seems like a good possibility, I think even a B788 can operate the distance.
 
devmapper
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Re: Air India to Lease B787-9

Mon Apr 03, 2017 10:32 pm

EK006 wrote:
I believe DEL-SFO has been quite profitable for AI as it has seen a recent increase in weekly flights and DEL-ORD is also profitable for AI. Also BOM-EWR was one of AI worst performing routes and lost them a lot of money and this was reported widely on A.net.


First time poster here, so please forgive me for any mistakes.

The DEL-SFO flight seems to be profit-making. One of the more respected Indian newspapers have some numbers on the DEL-SFO flight:
http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/economy/logistics/flying-high-air-india-sees-bookings-to-us-double-after-laptop-ban/article9614126.ece
It seems each round-trip earns AI a profit of ₹0.2Cr (₹2 million). With 6 round-trip flights a week, that translates to roughly ₹62.4Cr a year (₹624 million or roughly US$9.75 million at ₹64/$1 exchange rate). It's not much, but it's not bleeding taxpayer money.
 
wedgetail737
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Re: Air India to Lease B787-9

Mon Apr 03, 2017 11:26 pm

I would imagine SEA would be too small of a market for AI.
 
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seabosdca
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Re: Air India to Lease B787-9

Mon Apr 03, 2017 11:31 pm

BawliBooch wrote:
So 2023-25 or so, the 787-9's will start coming in. by which time some of the 787-8's - atleast the initial lot of lemons that AI received- will be ready for the scrap heap.


:sarcastic:

Tell you what: if any early-build AI 787s have gone to the scrapper by 2025, I'll send you some carbon fiber shards. (They won't.)
 
dtw2hyd
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Re: Air India to Lease B787-9

Tue Apr 04, 2017 12:17 am

B789 Dry lease, PBH Engines and Boeing RES should do just fine. What happens to B788 early birds is up to lessors.

After 3 year detailed analysis AI board recommended 10xA343s, GoI purchased 50 Boeing WBs, so anything is possible.
 
CaliguyNYC
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Re: Air India to Lease B787-9

Tue Apr 04, 2017 12:17 am

I dont know why people say BOM-EWR is a loss maker but JFK-DEL does well. No way that is true. NJ has see a huge increase in Indian immigrants while NY is more or less stagnant with immigrants who came from India in the 80's as well as Caribbean Indians (that show as Indian but have very little connection to India). The NJ area is probably the number one O&D market for flights to BOM and India from the US. JFK-BOM didn't work (not surprising as Indians in NY tend to be from DEL/Punjab). If EWR was not doing well they would not have started EWR-LHR-AMD. Going by FF award availability, I would say the EWR and SFO flights do well (I know that you cant tell).
 
devmapper
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Re: Air India to Lease B787-9

Tue Apr 04, 2017 5:54 am

9w748capt wrote:
audian wrote:
Will DFW and IAH fall within the range of a 787-9 operating from DEL?


I can't imagine it won't? Just a matter of time until the 789 operates LHR-PER, so IAH-DEL should be a breeze in comparison.


Wouldn't LHR-PER have a premium-heavy mix of passengers? Wouldn't that result in lower OEW and more range? In a typical Y-heavy configuration that would work for AI, a B789 might be too heavy to make the trip.

Would it be conceivable that AI might want to put the 789 on the SFO route? They only have 3 77Ls and so far, they've been extremely lucky with IRROPS.
 
devmapper
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Re: Air India to Lease B787-9

Tue Apr 04, 2017 6:20 am

CaliguyNYC wrote:
I dont know why people say BOM-EWR is a loss maker but JFK-DEL does well. No way that is true. NJ has see a huge increase in Indian immigrants while NY is more or less stagnant with immigrants who came from India in the 80's as well as Caribbean Indians (that show as Indian but have very little connection to India). The NJ area is probably the number one O&D market for flights to BOM and India from the US. JFK-BOM didn't work (not surprising as Indians in NY tend to be from DEL/Punjab). If EWR was not doing well they would not have started EWR-LHR-AMD. Going by FF award availability, I would say the EWR and SFO flights do well (I know that you cant tell).


Historically, BOM hasn't been an easy airport to connect. So typically, BOM-EWR flight catered primarily to people originating from within drivable distance of the airport (Mumbai and Pune). 77Ws were also weight-restricted, due to billboards in the path. It was also harder to connect at EWR because UA favors 9W codeshare. Both of these contributed to poor loads in the past, which led to losses on the route. DEL-JFK gets more connecting passengers at DEL, but it is also possible that on the JFK side, AI might have more connections via interline agreements.

The jury is still out on the AMD-LHR-EWR flight, but I don't really think AI is even breaking even on that. Ideally AI would move all long-haul flights to DEL and just drop the BOM flight. I think that would probably have better loads due to connecting passengers from other cities.
 
whywhyzee
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Re: Air India to Lease B787-9

Tue Apr 04, 2017 12:11 pm

YYZ is the second busiest city in terms of service levels to India in all of North America, as of July 1st, there will be 17 weekly departures to India. Given the strength of the market, it makes sense that the national carrier of India would step in, filling planes would not be a problem. By virtue of the demand, yields will be manageable, and with the 787, it gives them a competitive advantage over 9W who serve YYZ with the 77W, not to mention AC's fortress hub to feed flights.
 
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leleko747
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Re: Air India to Lease B787-9

Tue Apr 04, 2017 2:47 pm

gatibosgru wrote:
That article triggered my OCD! It's 787-9 or 787-8, not 900/800 ¬¬


You are not the only one! :highfive:
I wonder when people will finaly understand there's no 787-800/900, nor 747-800.
 
anshabhi
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Re: Air India to Lease B787-9

Tue Apr 04, 2017 3:06 pm

What's the waiting period for B789 currently? Assume if AI places an order tomorrow, how soon would it receive them?
 
GamingPolaris
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Re: Air India to Lease B787-9

Tue Apr 04, 2017 6:58 pm

anshabhi wrote:
What's the waiting period for B789 currently? Assume if AI places an order tomorrow, how soon would it receive them?


They are leasing the aircraft from a leasing company, so I suspect around 2018-2019 for the first delivery. Who knows, possibly sooner.
 
danj555
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Re: Air India to Lease B787-9

Tue Apr 04, 2017 7:04 pm

Where are they finding this money? I could have sworn that I read an article no more than a month ago that Air India was taking a dive again
 
subramak1
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Re: Air India to Lease B787-9

Tue Apr 04, 2017 10:15 pm

BawliBooch wrote:
kaitak wrote:
In fairness, they never operated the -400 Combi, just the -400; the -300s they operated were Combis (and of course had to have F/Es!)

They operated 2 743 Combis. But they were looking to acquire 744 Combi's to replace them and the board approved induction of 744 Combis with 3 man crew - which do not exist. They were negotiating with Air Canada for a couple of 744 Combis before abandoning that search.

kaitak wrote:
I know AI wanted to introduced -9s a while back, but were refused permission. Thankfully, this will now happen. I note that they are being leased; does AI not have any outstanding orders that it can convert to -9s?

Nobody refused permission. AI was planning to convert some of the existing 787-8 orders into -9's as part of the compensation package they were demanding. Boeing refused. The denial of permission was to buy/lease fresh aircraft while the restructuring process was underway.

subramak1 wrote:
There is a new management in place otherwise AI would have ordered A380s to support these routes. I am more optimistic about AI..
Subu


Ha ha ha! There is no new management. Ashwani Lohani is certainly good at running his personal PR - but on the ground NOTHING has changed.


Any facts to back up your claim? I see him in press reports rarely!!

Subu
 
anshabhi
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Re: Air India to Lease B787-9

Wed Apr 05, 2017 7:25 am

danj555 wrote:
Where are they finding this money? I could have sworn that I read an article no more than a month ago that Air India was taking a dive again


Their owner is Indian govt..
 
SA744
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Re: Air India to Lease B787-9

Wed Apr 05, 2017 7:51 am

I find it strange that AKL is not on their radar. There is a large Indian community in NZ and i know that most flights originating and arriving at AKL have large number of Indian passegers. AI should consider extending the SYD route.
 
hkcanadaexpat
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Re: Air India to Lease B787-9

Wed Apr 05, 2017 8:24 am

I wonder if these will come from Avia Capital, rumoured to takeover the Aeroflot orderbook. Most of the other lessors have committed their 789s already.
 
dtw2hyd
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Re: Air India to Lease B787-9

Wed Apr 05, 2017 10:55 am

danj555 wrote:
Where are they finding this money? I could have sworn that I read an article no more than a month ago that Air India was taking a dive again


Mostly thru commercial borrowing. Their revenue during 2015-16 FY was $3.2B. Their total labor cost (current + retirees) is $350 Million. But they pay $680 Million debt servicing fee every year. Most of the interest goes back to government owned banks at 13%-15%.

If AI is allowed to borrow from global financial sources it can borrow at 3%-5% with a savings of $400 Million/year. AFAIK India won't allow working capital loans from global sources beyond certain limit.

With that kind of interest payments, no route will be profitable when the debt service fee gets appropriated.
 
ben237829624
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Re: Air India to Lease B787-9

Wed Apr 05, 2017 2:50 pm

BawliBooch wrote:

So 2023-25 or so, the 787-9's will start coming in. by which time some of the 787-8's - atleast the initial lot of lemons that AI received- will be ready for the scrap heap.

Oh those 787-8 will barely last 10 years considering how AI maintain their aircrafts in the past.
 
dtw2hyd
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Re: Air India to Lease B787-9

Wed Apr 05, 2017 3:16 pm

ben237829624 wrote:
Oh those 787-8 will barely last 10 years considering how AI maintain their aircrafts in the past.


AI has world's oldest A320s in commercial service. 28+ years in service.
AI B744s are reaching 23+ years service

AI Engineering still maintains 1968 B707-337C (ex-AI VT-DXT currently active with Indian Air Force K2899)
 
ben237829624
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Re: Air India to Lease B787-9

Wed Apr 05, 2017 3:59 pm

dtw2hyd wrote:

AI has world's oldest A320s in commercial service. 28+ years in service.
AI B744s are reaching 23+ years service

AI Engineering still maintains 1968 B707-337C (ex-AI VT-DXT currently active with Indian Air Force K2899)


I've flown a relatively new AI 787-8 and its poor interior condition really did surprise me.
Also, AI has had to scrap its 4 yrs old 777-200LR VT-ALH. This really doesn't give me much confidence on its maintenance department.
 
dtw2hyd
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Re: Air India to Lease B787-9

Wed Apr 05, 2017 4:26 pm

ben237829624 wrote:
Also, AI has had to scrap its 4 yrs old 777-200LR VT-ALH.

You got me. Who can argue against a well known a.net fact. Just for confirmation, Do you know how to use fr24?

ben237829624 wrote:
I've flown a relatively new AI 787-8 and its poor interior condition really did surprise me..

So in your theory, as soon as chocks are on, 4000 AIESL employees are trashing B788 interiors.
 
9w748capt
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Re: Air India to Lease B787-9

Wed Apr 05, 2017 4:51 pm

devmapper wrote:
9w748capt wrote:
audian wrote:
Will DFW and IAH fall within the range of a 787-9 operating from DEL?


I can't imagine it won't? Just a matter of time until the 789 operates LHR-PER, so IAH-DEL should be a breeze in comparison.


Wouldn't LHR-PER have a premium-heavy mix of passengers? Wouldn't that result in lower OEW and more range? In a typical Y-heavy configuration that would work for AI, a B789 might be too heavy to make the trip.

Would it be conceivable that AI might want to put the 789 on the SFO route? They only have 3 77Ls and so far, they've been extremely lucky with IRROPS.


QF's 789 will be 42J-28W-166Y - so yes premium heavy, but no where near an all-J config. Surely AI's 789 will have less J and far more Y, but still, IAH-DEL will still be shorter than LHR-PER so I'd think it'll be doable. Of course I'm just an armchair QB after all so no idea what AI will actually do.
 
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LAXdude1023
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Re: Air India to Lease B787-9

Wed Apr 05, 2017 5:11 pm

IAH has Star Alliance connection, but the Indian community in DFW is far larger and growing far faster as is ties with India. Its a wash.

Personally I think AI in Texas is a bad idea and that DFW or IAH to DEL would be failures assuming profit is an issue.
 
Vimanav
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Re: Air India to Lease B787-9

Wed Apr 05, 2017 6:30 pm

ben237829624 wrote:
dtw2hyd wrote:

AI has had to scrap its 4 yrs old 777-200LR VT-ALH.


Your scrapped 77L is getting ready to do DEL-SFO tonite as AI173 even as i write this.

brgds//Vimanav
 
manny
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Re: Air India to Lease B787-9

Wed Apr 05, 2017 6:52 pm

ben237829624 wrote:

Also, AI has had to scrap its 4 yrs old 777-200LR VT-ALH. This really doesn't give me much confidence on its maintenance department.


As has been pointed out VT-ALH is in service.
 
CaliguyNYC
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Re: Air India to Lease B787-9

Wed Apr 05, 2017 7:12 pm

LAXdude1023 wrote:
IAH has Star Alliance connection, but the Indian community in DFW is far larger and growing far faster as is ties with India. Its a wash.

Personally I think AI in Texas is a bad idea and that DFW or IAH to DEL would be failures assuming profit is an issue.


I think saying Dallas is way bigger is a stretch. Going by the census there are 100k Indians in Dallas and 91k in Houston. AI benefits more by being in IAH because its a star hub. UA aside, at least professional indians that care about miles (i.e. They travel for work) will want to earn more UA miles - which AI would offer. Also pax from Texas and the south can easily connect in IAH using UA. Dallas is OW and also has Qatar flying which is OW. AI has done a good job of sticking to Star hubs in the US and Europe except where there is bug O&D or very historical (like DEL-JFK). They also have stuck to having most international flights go out of DEL (even TLV), The strategy is working. I think after IAH, AI should only start a one stop from YYZ (say to DEl and via BHX) and maybe EWR-DEL 3X. That's it. They basically have the US covered.
 
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LAXdude1023
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Re: Air India to Lease B787-9

Wed Apr 05, 2017 7:28 pm

CaliguyNYC wrote:
LAXdude1023 wrote:
IAH has Star Alliance connection, but the Indian community in DFW is far larger and growing far faster as is ties with India. Its a wash.

Personally I think AI in Texas is a bad idea and that DFW or IAH to DEL would be failures assuming profit is an issue.


I think saying Dallas is way bigger is a stretch. Going by the census there are 100k Indians in Dallas and 91k in Houston. AI benefits more by being in IAH because its a star hub. UA aside, at least professional indians that care about miles (i.e. They travel for work) will want to earn more UA miles - which AI would offer. Also pax from Texas and the south can easily connect in IAH using UA. Dallas is OW and also has Qatar flying which is OW. AI has done a good job of sticking to Star hubs in the US and Europe except where there is bug O&D or very historical (like DEL-JFK). They also have stuck to having most international flights go out of DEL (even TLV), The strategy is working. I think after IAH, AI should only start a one stop from YYZ (say to DEl and via BHX) and maybe EWR-DEL 3X. That's it. They basically have the US covered.


You have to look at newer numbers than 2010. Try the ones from 2015:

Indians per metro area (source American Factfinder-Census):
Dallas: 162,039
Houston: 127.259

Indian growth per metro area (source: INS)
2010:
Dallas: 2,403
Houston: 2,175

2011:
Dallas: 2,582
Houston: 2,099

2012:
Dallas: 2,538
Houston: 2,134

2013:
Dallas: 2,905
Houston: 2,036

2014:
Dallas: 3,845
Houston: 2,694

2015:
Dallas: 3,151
Houston: 2,169

I don't bring this data up to suggest that AI would choose DFW over IAH. Frankly, I don't think they should do either. The markets aren't big enough for all the ME3 plus AI. But the center for Indian culture in Texas has shifted from South Texas to North Texas even though both metro areas have very large Indian communities. DFW has passed Greater Los Angeles in Indian population and is on track to pass the DC area as well to become the 4th largest Indian community in the US.
 
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yellowtail
Posts: 3938
Joined: Fri Jun 17, 2005 3:46 am

Re: Air India to Lease B787-9

Wed Apr 05, 2017 8:14 pm

There were a lot of nay sayers about NZ going into IAH. They have been proven wrong. The star hub is driving traffic to the flight as it would to this (hypothetical) flight.
AI would be able to offer one stop service to the large indian diasporas in Central America and the caribbean. Much of that goes 2 stop via QR at Mia now (many in J).

Yes, I know it would de ULH, but there might just be enough of a business case to make it work.
 
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LAXdude1023
Posts: 8468
Joined: Thu Sep 07, 2006 3:16 pm

Re: Air India to Lease B787-9

Wed Apr 05, 2017 8:29 pm

yellowtail wrote:
There were a lot of nay sayers about NZ going into IAH. They have been proven wrong. The star hub is driving traffic to the flight as it would to this (hypothetical) flight.
AI would be able to offer one stop service to the large indian diasporas in Central America and the caribbean. Much of that goes 2 stop via QR at Mia now (many in J).

Yes, I know it would de ULH, but there might just be enough of a business case to make it work.


The Indian diaspora is tiny outside places like Guyana, Trinidad and Tobago, and the East End of the Caribbean. The places that IAH can connect to don't help that VFR market.
 
filipair
Posts: 180
Joined: Fri May 14, 2010 3:28 am

Re: Air India to Lease B787-9

Wed Apr 05, 2017 8:35 pm

LAXdude1023 wrote:
CaliguyNYC wrote:
LAXdude1023 wrote:
IAH has Star Alliance connection, but the Indian community in DFW is far larger and growing far faster as is ties with India. Its a wash.
Indians per metro area (source American Factfinder-Census):
Dallas: 162,039
Houston: 127.259

Indian growth per metro area (source: INS)
2010:
Dallas: 2,403
Houston: 2,175


LAXdude, where can I access the INS data? Is it available for other nationalities?

Cheers
 
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LAXdude1023
Posts: 8468
Joined: Thu Sep 07, 2006 3:16 pm

Re: Air India to Lease B787-9

Wed Apr 05, 2017 9:38 pm

filipair wrote:
LAXdude1023 wrote:
CaliguyNYC wrote:


LAXdude, where can I access the INS data? Is it available for other nationalities?

Cheers


Right here!

https://www.dhs.gov/immigration-statist ... rbook/2015

This is latest one. They have the others years too.
 
goacom
Posts: 127
Joined: Sat Feb 14, 2009 2:37 am

Re: Air India to Lease B787-9

Wed Apr 05, 2017 10:46 pm

I highly doubt AI would be able to capture significant Indian traffic from the ME3. Besides its well known issues of being unreliable, the only folks who might benefit are those who live in the Del vicinity. There is so much of direct connectivity from many of the ME3 to many local airports in India, the hassles of going through customs in Del and then having to check in for a domestic flight is a real pain. I live in the Texas area and am spoilt for choices with the ME3. AI would not even fall into my radar.
 
devmapper
Posts: 240
Joined: Mon Apr 03, 2017 10:15 pm

Re: Air India to Lease B787-9

Thu Apr 06, 2017 1:15 am

9w748capt wrote:

QF's 789 will be 42J-28W-166Y - so yes premium heavy, but no where near an all-J config. Surely AI's 789 will have less J and far more Y, but still, IAH-DEL will still be shorter than LHR-PER so I'd think it'll be doable. Of course I'm just an armchair QB after all so no idea what AI will actually do.


I think AI has generally been pretty conservative with their long-haul aircraft. Looking at the time-aloft durations, I would have thought that they could do DEL-SFO on their 77Ws, but anecdotal evidence from Anet forums indicate that the few (one?) times AI has done that, the aircraft was weight-restricted.
 
himmat01
Posts: 1037
Joined: Sat Dec 04, 2004 4:34 pm

Re: Air India to Lease B787-9

Thu Apr 06, 2017 5:45 am

ben237829624 wrote:

Also, AI has had to scrap its 4 yrs old 777-200LR VT-ALH. This really doesn't give me much confidence on its maintenance department.


I just flew on this 'scrapped' aircraft on Sunday.
 
kq747
Posts: 126
Joined: Fri Nov 25, 2011 3:59 pm

Re: Air India to Lease B787-9

Thu Apr 06, 2017 2:30 pm

LAXdude1023 wrote:
CaliguyNYC wrote:
LAXdude1023 wrote:
IAH has Star Alliance connection, but the Indian community in DFW is far larger and growing far faster as is ties with India. Its a wash.

Personally I think AI in Texas is a bad idea and that DFW or IAH to DEL would be failures assuming profit is an issue.


I think saying Dallas is way bigger is a stretch. Going by the census there are 100k Indians in Dallas and 91k in Houston. AI benefits more by being in IAH because its a star hub. UA aside, at least professional indians that care about miles (i.e. They travel for work) will want to earn more UA miles - which AI would offer. Also pax from Texas and the south can easily connect in IAH using UA. Dallas is OW and also has Qatar flying which is OW. AI has done a good job of sticking to Star hubs in the US and Europe except where there is bug O&D or very historical (like DEL-JFK). They also have stuck to having most international flights go out of DEL (even TLV), The strategy is working. I think after IAH, AI should only start a one stop from YYZ (say to DEl and via BHX) and maybe EWR-DEL 3X. That's it. They basically have the US covered.


You have to look at newer numbers than 2010. Try the ones from 2015:

Indians per metro area (source American Factfinder-Census):
Dallas: 162,039
Houston: 127.259

Indian growth per metro area (source: INS)
2010:
Dallas: 2,403
Houston: 2,175

2011:
Dallas: 2,582
Houston: 2,099

2012:
Dallas: 2,538
Houston: 2,134

2013:
Dallas: 2,905
Houston: 2,036

2014:
Dallas: 3,845
Houston: 2,694

2015:
Dallas: 3,151
Houston: 2,169

I don't bring this data up to suggest that AI would choose DFW over IAH. Frankly, I don't think they should do either. The markets aren't big enough for all the ME3 plus AI. But the center for Indian culture in Texas has shifted from South Texas to North Texas even though both metro areas have very large Indian communities. DFW has passed Greater Los Angeles in Indian population and is on track to pass the DC area as well to become the 4th largest Indian community in the US.


Are these figures just describing the number of Indian nationals or does it also account for the number of people of Indian origin who are not Indian nationals? If it does not factor these in then it is missing a decent number of people. There are plenty of Indians who have never been citizens of India or have given up Indian citizenship as India does not allow dual citizenship.
 
subramak1
Posts: 365
Joined: Tue Aug 09, 2016 10:21 pm

Re: Air India to Lease B787-9

Thu Apr 06, 2017 4:58 pm

goacom wrote:
I highly doubt AI would be able to capture significant Indian traffic from the ME3. Besides its well known issues of being unreliable, the only folks who might benefit are those who live in the Del vicinity. There is so much of direct connectivity from many of the ME3 to many local airports in India, the hassles of going through customs in Del and then having to check in for a domestic flight is a real pain. I live in the Texas area and am spoilt for choices with the ME3. AI would not even fall into my radar.


Have you experienced DEL in recent past. Most connecting flights to other cities in India leave from international terminal itself. It is much faster than connecting in DXB or HKG. You clear customs in MAA, BLR or COK rather than in DEL.

I connected in DEL with less than 75 mins. I cleared Indian immigration , customs in Chennai. It took about 20 mins to clear Indian immigration in Chennai because I did not carry my Boarding pass from DEL MAA( They use your boarding to identify you as coming from an Indian destination in the international terminal, which is wierd as I was connecting from an intl flight ) As an Indian passport holder, they allowed me to proceed.

I think in the current ERA alternate facts are the norm.

Thanks, Subu

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