AS to fly VX A320s through 2024, will take all A321neos

KarelXWB · Fri Mar 31, 2017 1:06 pm

Alaska Airlines will fly the A320 fleet through at least 2024, and has yet to decide what to do with the A320s after that period:

Alaska Airlines will operate Virgin America’s Airbus A320 family fleet through at least 2024, as it targets a decision on its long-term fleet mix by the end of this year.

Later this year, the carrier will make a decision on what to do with the A320neo that is currently due to arrive in 2020:

The Seattle-based carrier will make a decision on whether to keep Virgin America’s order for 30 A320neos and maintain the Airbus fleet beyond 2024 by the end of this year, says Pedersen. The A320neos begin arriving in 2020.

Carrier will also take all 10 A321neo aircraft. It was speculated the order would be reduced, which does not seem to happen.

Pedersen’s presentation also shows Alaska taking delivery of all 10 A321neos from lessor GECAS, which will increase its Airbus fleet to 63 by the end of 2018. Five are due this year and five next year.

Source
https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... 24-435692/

enilria · Fri Mar 31, 2017 1:22 pm

Still sounds to me like an all-Boeing future, but not quickly.

SFOtoORD · Fri Mar 31, 2017 1:24 pm

enilria wrote:
Still sounds to me like an all-Boeing future, but not quickly.

It sounds more like an airline that will leave its options open and get the best aircraft/pricing that is available down the road when they need to decide.

Falcon Flyer · Fri Mar 31, 2017 1:32 pm

Is sub-leasing out the airbus fleet something AS would consider? I understand it would be a lot of capacity to replace in a relatively short amount of time but could it be an option?

WA707atMSP · Fri Mar 31, 2017 1:38 pm

My guess: Rather than replace the VX Airbii with 737-Max, AS will wait to evaluate the Boeing MoM concept once it is finalized. I think AS could be a MoM launch customer....or they could choose to operate a split Boeing / Airbus narrowbody fleet.

ikolkyo · Fri Mar 31, 2017 1:43 pm

Doesn't surprise me, too late to cancel orders.

NameOmitted · Fri Mar 31, 2017 1:43 pm

Given the number of new city pairs that have been announced this spring, was this as surprise to anyone? They need the aircraft.

Bricktop · Fri Mar 31, 2017 1:46 pm

enilria wrote:
Still sounds to me like an all-Boeing future, but not quickly.

Sure, if Boeing buys Airbus. :rotfl:

KarelXWB · Fri Mar 31, 2017 1:47 pm

enilria wrote:
Still sounds to me like an all-Boeing future, but not quickly.

It will take at least a decade.

Polot · Fri Mar 31, 2017 1:52 pm

2024 is probably when the last A320 lease is up. I believe they start expiring in 2020.

Dominion301 · Fri Mar 31, 2017 2:03 pm

I'd say AS will join the US3 in having a mix of 737/A32X going forward. The Airbus fleet is/will be at a critical mass where the benefits of operating a single aircraft type diminish.

william · Fri Mar 31, 2017 2:06 pm

Smart move, we will never know what concessions AS was able to get from Airbus. The A321 is the plane to have now

NameOmitted · Fri Mar 31, 2017 2:23 pm

william wrote:
Smart move, we will never know what concessions AS was able to get from Airbus. The A321 is the plane to have now

Or the lessors.

Earlier there was speculation that AS could get better rates than VX due to their financial position. Any word on if that happened?

hiflyeras · Fri Mar 31, 2017 2:40 pm

At the investor's conference this week in NYC, AS said that the Airbus 319 and 320's were best suited for west coast north-south flying. And the 737-800 and -900's were best suited for transcon flying due to their higher seat count. I don't think you'll see that start to happen until 2019 at the earliest when the merging of crews and fleet begins.

flyoregon · Fri Mar 31, 2017 2:56 pm

Anyone with a new livery on Airbus image?

gatibosgru · Fri Mar 31, 2017 3:11 pm

Will they operate them under VX's interior and livery or will they be converted to AS?

They'll have to update this it seems

enilria · Fri Mar 31, 2017 3:12 pm

KarelXWB wrote:
enilria wrote:
Still sounds to me like an all-Boeing future, but not quickly.

It will take at least a decade.

Bricktop wrote:
enilria wrote:
Still sounds to me like an all-Boeing future, but not quickly.

Sure, if Boeing buys Airbus.

I remember all these same people saying Southwest would keep the 717. It's actually pretty comical if you want to go back and read it. This is going to probably take longer than it did at WN (which still took years) because these planes in question are much newer than the 717s were. But in the end, we have already seen this merger go like all the others go.

Step 1: We will keep the best of both companies
Step 2: We are looking at ways to keep using the Virgin brand and excellent product
Step 3: We are evaluating the fleet and may keep the Airbus
Step 4: The Virgin brand and product will go away
Step 5: ...

Again, this is how every merger goes and yet it seems to come as a surprise each time. Alaska bought Virgin. Alaska is very successful. Virgin basically wasn't. Nearly everything will become like Alaska did things. It's a story told over and over again.

msycajun · Fri Mar 31, 2017 3:25 pm

I think there are a few key differences in that the 717 would have been a relatively smaller portion of the WN than Airbuses will be in the AS fleet. WN's model is built strongly around a single fleet type that can go station to station, whereas the 717s were mostly used in hub-spoke flying. WN decided it would be too costly if they had 717s going MSY-ATL-PIT-MDW-HOU for example rather than ATL-MSY/PIT/HOU/MDW. The difference is the AS is hugely weighted towards hub flying - they could basically confine the Airbus fleet to SFO and still get economies of scale for maintenance.

hiflyeras · Fri Mar 31, 2017 3:54 pm

enilria wrote:
Again, this is how every merger goes and yet it seems to come as a surprise each time. Alaska bought Virgin. Alaska is very successful. Virgin basically wasn't. Nearly everything will become like Alaska did things. It's a story told over and over again.

Which is why SRB's petulant whining is so annoying and childish. Would B6 have kept the Virgin brand? Unlikely. I wish he'd just shut up and go back to his island in the Caribbean and count his $600m+ profit.

448205 · Fri Mar 31, 2017 4:10 pm

"Proudly All Airbus, Boeing, Bombardier and Embraer"

SonOfABeech · Fri Mar 31, 2017 4:18 pm

WA707atMSP wrote:
My guess: Rather than replace the VX Airbii with 737-Max, AS will wait to evaluate the Boeing MoM concept once it is finalized. I think AS could be a MoM launch customer....or they could choose to operate a split Boeing / Airbus narrowbody fleet.

Isn't the MoM getting too big for AS?

MIflyer12 · Fri Mar 31, 2017 4:34 pm

Dominion301 wrote:
I'd say AS will join the US3 in having a mix of 737/A32X going forward. The Airbus fleet is/will be at a critical mass where the benefits of operating a single aircraft type diminish.

Not at all - especially given the overlap in capabilities and seat counts between 737/CEO/MAX/NEO. AS is roughly one quarter the size of AA, DL, or UA. Economies of scale that they find can elude AS.

Softaero · Fri Mar 31, 2017 4:45 pm

If it helps keep aircraft pricing in check, why not. AS now brands itself as a West Coast airline, not just a Seattle hometown airline. Being all Boeing is no longer as important. AS can now play Boeing and Airbus against each other with new aircraft orders to get better deals.

hiflyeras · Fri Mar 31, 2017 5:28 pm

SonOfABeech wrote:
WA707atMSP wrote:
My guess: Rather than replace the VX Airbii with 737-Max, AS will wait to evaluate the Boeing MoM concept once it is finalized. I think AS could be a MoM launch customer....or they could choose to operate a split Boeing / Airbus narrowbody fleet.

Isn't the MoM getting too big for AS?

AS was said to be one of the airlines specifically mentioned as to being interested in a twin-aisle with a seating range around 200 pax. I'd guess they'd go as high as 225. They have a number of routes they could use it...summers to ANC & FAI, winters to Hawaii and Mexico, some transcon routes like DCA (depends on specs of course) and EWR. They wouldn't be sitting, gathering dust.

viewtopic.php?t=1357237

Dominion301 · Fri Mar 31, 2017 5:28 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
Dominion301 wrote:
I'd say AS will join the US3 in having a mix of 737/A32X going forward. The Airbus fleet is/will be at a critical mass where the benefits of operating a single aircraft type diminish.

Not at all - especially given the overlap in capabilities and seat counts between 737/CEO/MAX/NEO. AS is roughly one quarter the size of AA, DL, or UA. Economies of scale that they find can elude AS.

Well it's been said on here that once you hit 50 frames of a given narrowbody type/family, you've hit the critical mass needed to realized economies of scale.

intotheair · Fri Mar 31, 2017 5:36 pm

msycajun wrote:
I think there are a few key differences in that the 717 would have been a relatively smaller portion of the WN than Airbuses will be in the AS fleet. WN's model is built strongly around a single fleet type that can go station to station, whereas the 717s were mostly used in hub-spoke flying. WN decided it would be too costly if they had 717s going MSY-ATL-PIT-MDW-HOU for example rather than ATL-MSY/PIT/HOU/MDW. The difference is the AS is hugely weighted towards hub flying - they could basically confine the Airbus fleet to SFO and still get economies of scale for maintenance.

I agree. Just look at the numbers and the business model. AirTran's fleet of, what, 80 or so 717s would have easily been drowned out with WN's 600-700 strong fleet of 737s. Meanwhile, VX's fleet of 63 Airbus along with 40 forthcoming orders is a little more evenly matched in terms of capacity against AS' 155 737s. It's also worth nothing, not only does AS have a more traditional legacy hub-and-spoke model compared to WN, but AS also has a regional operation operating multiple types, so it's not like they have the same "one size fits all" model that WN has. In short, I don't think WN+FL is a very good comparison to AS+VX.

This is not to say that I don't think AS could perhaps get rid of the Airbus fleet down the line. Maybe they will, but if they're serious about shoring up all these California markets, then they're going to need the lift of the Airbus fleet in the near term. The fact that they already have preliminary plans to reconfigure them and redeploy them on north-south west coast shorthaul indicates something very different than WN's model of leasing out FL's 717s ASAP.

http://viewfromthewing.boardingarea.com ... e-program/

FlyUSAir · Fri Mar 31, 2017 5:43 pm

Based on that, it looks like the VX's A320's on JFK-LAX/SFO will eventually be replaced by AS 739's?

neutrino · Fri Mar 31, 2017 6:03 pm

Varsity1 wrote:
"Proudly All Airbus, Boeing, Bombardier and Embraer"

Why so long-winded?
Make it short and sharp: Proudly all jets.

intotheair · Fri Mar 31, 2017 6:06 pm

neutrino wrote:
Varsity1 wrote:
"Proudly All Airbus, Boeing, Bombardier and Embraer"

Why so long-winded?
Make it short and sharp: Proudly all jets.

Ahh but not all of those Bombardiers are jets!

Proudly all planes doesn't have quite the same ring.

ScottB · Fri Mar 31, 2017 6:06 pm

msycajun wrote:
I think there are a few key differences in that the 717 would have been a relatively smaller portion of the WN than Airbuses will be in the AS fleet. WN's model is built strongly around a single fleet type that can go station to station, whereas the 717s were mostly used in hub-spoke flying. WN decided it would be too costly if they had 717s going MSY-ATL-PIT-MDW-HOU for example rather than ATL-MSY/PIT/HOU/MDW.

In the case of WN and the 717, the real reason why they dropped the 717 was that the all-in block-hour cost was so close between the 717 and 73G. It virtually always made more sense to operate a 73G for the extra 20 seats' worth of revenue which could be captured. Plus they had enough new 737s coming from Boeing along with used 73Gs and/or keeping 733s longer to backfill the FL capacity.

hiflyeras wrote:
At the investor's conference this week in NYC, AS said that the Airbus 319 and 320's were best suited for west coast north-south flying. And the 737-800 and -900's were best suited for transcon flying due to their higher seat count. I don't think you'll see that start to happen until 2019 at the earliest when the merging of crews and fleet begins.

...which mostly matches how DL has chosen to deploy its A32X and 737 fleets as well.

aviationjunky · Fri Mar 31, 2017 6:17 pm

Just an observation: looks like AS wikipeida page was finally updated to include VX aircraft.

http://www.en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alaska_Airlines

intotheair · Fri Mar 31, 2017 6:18 pm

aviationjunky wrote:
Just an observation: looks like AS wikipeida page was finally updated to include VX aircraft.

http://www.en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alaska_Airlines

Interesting, looks like it was done in the last two minutes, because it was not there when I looked at it in order to write my post.

aviationjunky · Fri Mar 31, 2017 6:23 pm

intotheair wrote:

Do we know if AS is planning on keeping the Premium Economy on all the A319/320 aircraft?

aviationjunky · Fri Mar 31, 2017 6:25 pm

intotheair wrote:
aviationjunky wrote:
Just an observation: looks like AS wikipeida page was finally updated to include VX aircraft.

http://www.en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alaska_Airlines

Interesting, looks like it was done in the last two minutes, because it was not there when I looked at it in order to write my post.

That's what I was saying. I looked 15 minutes ago and it wasn't there.

usxguy · Fri Mar 31, 2017 8:00 pm

aviationjunky wrote:

Do we know if AS is planning on keeping the Premium Economy on all the A319/320 aircraft?

Only 1 row of the overwing exits on VX is considered "Main Cabin Select" - the A319s & A320s have only 12 seats of MCS. And Alaska includes the overwing exits as part of regular main cabin if you look at the seat pitch.

BoeingGuy · Fri Mar 31, 2017 8:56 pm

I'm pretty bummed about this. I realize that AS is in the business of making money and serving their customers as best they can, not being sentimental. I can't fault their business decisions of a very well run airline. However, it won't feel right flying an A320 say from SEA-SJC on AS.

I was hoping AS would phase out the A32x airplanes in short order and replace them with more 737s.

aviationjunky · Fri Mar 31, 2017 9:08 pm

BoeingGuy wrote:
I'm pretty bummed about this. I realize that AS is in the business of making money and serving their customers as best they can, not being sentimental. I can't fault their business decisions of a very well run airline. However, it won't feel right flying an A320 say from SEA-SJC on AS.

I was hoping AS would phase out the A32x airplanes in short order and replace them with more 737s.

At the end of the article, it says that once their lease is up, they might terminate and have them taken out. However, the lease isn't up until 2024, so we will be seeing them around for a while.

Boeing778X · Fri Mar 31, 2017 9:34 pm

If I'm totally honest, I think the NEOs would look SWEET in AS's livery. Then again, so would they in VX.

Also, they are very lucky the NEOs will be CFM!

hiflyeras · Fri Mar 31, 2017 9:47 pm

Boeing778X wrote:

Also, they are very lucky the NEOs will be CFM!

Thanks for that info! I was wondering which engine they ordered...it looks like the PW LEAP is having some issues.
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/busi ... 468254.cms

81819 · Fri Mar 31, 2017 9:48 pm

WS had the opportunity to rid themselves of the entire 717 fleet by doing a deal with Boeing and Delta, so it probably made economic sense for them to replace them out with 737's. If the opportunity to sell/lease/?? the aircraft to DA didn't exist they would probably still have 717's in their fleet today.

AS have talked equally about CAPEX for future aircraft and the retention of the A320 fleet in their investor presentations. If we look at the presentations (CAPEX - $1-1.5 billion pa, not lease payments) it is fairly clear AS will be purchasing approximately 15-25 new aircraft per year or 10% of the current combined AS & VS fleet. This suggests AS will be in growth mode for quite a few years to come.

With AS only having a backlog of 51 aircraft (on order) and commitments to lease 10 A321NEO's, AS will need to be placing orders for new aircraft in the not too distant future. Remember AS is an airline that traditionally prefers aircraft ownership over leasing, so AS would have to negotiate a deal with Boeing with deliveries starting in the 2019-2021 timeframe. AS might have to retain some of their old 737-400's if they cannot obtain new aircraft deliveries in the time frame required.

In many ways AS retaining the A320 fleet represents reality.

I can't see a situation where AS would have the opportunity to rid itself of 70 A320 aircraft, replace them with Boeing jets and leverage the ownership of VS by growing the airline. Just think of the capital costs for lease break fees, end of lease maintenance, other facility requirements, pilot and cabin crew training, etc.

As an investor I would want to see AS use VX to grow the airline, not get bogged down in the semantics of being an all Boeing operator.

alfa164 · Fri Mar 31, 2017 10:24 pm

intotheair wrote:
neutrino wrote:
Varsity1 wrote:
"Proudly All Airbus, Boeing, Bombardier and Embraer"

Why so long-winded?
Make it short and sharp: Proudly all jets.

Ahh but not all of those Bombardiers are jets! Proudly all planes doesn't have quite the same ring.

"Proudly all planes with two wings"?

PlanesNTrains · Fri Mar 31, 2017 11:11 pm

Alaska/Horizon has flown Boeing, McDonnell Douglas, Dornier, Fokker, Bombardier, Swearingen and Embraer - at least - in the past 20 years. Their current Proudly All Boeing marketing slogan is just that - a marketing slogan. It serves their purposes now, as does a homogeneous all-737 fleet, but one day that'll change and the slogan can just quietly head off into the sunset, to be found on Maho Beach next to 4 Engines 4 Long Haul.

DDR · Fri Mar 31, 2017 11:18 pm

Congrats to AS for keeping the A321 orders. Our passengers love the planes and I'm sure AS passengers will as well.

EA CO AS · Fri Mar 31, 2017 11:57 pm

A few notes:

o The A319/A320 leases also have options to extend and take up new frames, should AS choose to do so
o If taking up all the options VX has, the pre-acquisition VX fleet could go to as high as 90 Airbus frames alone
o All VX aircraft will be retrofitted to the new AS interiors; the length of time AS will have them makes the retrofit worthwhile
o The strategy is to deploy larger gauge 900ERs to markets with low frequency and smaller gauge A320s into high frequency North/South routes
o Frequencies will be added as those markets mature
o The first two A321s will be delivered in current VX configuration, but no decision has been made on what the remaining frames will look like at delivery
o AS is very interested in the MoM concept and would ideally like something with 200-225 passengers and 4500nm range

TheLion · Sat Apr 01, 2017 12:06 am

DDR wrote:
Congrats to AS for keeping the A321 orders. Our passengers love the planes and I'm sure AS passengers will as well.

Agreed. Keeping the A321s makes a lot of sense. If they perform well, expect AS to order more, perhaps even A321neoLR to try longer routes to Europe and South America.

Polot · Sat Apr 01, 2017 12:11 am

TheLion wrote:
DDR wrote:
Congrats to AS for keeping the A321 orders. Our passengers love the planes and I'm sure AS passengers will as well.

Agreed. Keeping the A321s makes a lot of sense. If they perform well, expect AS to order more, perhaps even A321neoLR to try longer routes to Europe and South America.

Not from their hubs...

The A321LR is ill suited for a west coast airline.

RL777 · Sat Apr 01, 2017 12:22 am

Smart move from AS on the 321NEOs, Boeing simply don't have an aircraft that can properly compete with it and it'll allow AS to test the waters with Airbus aircraft, I suspect the A32Xs will be retired earlier than 2024 though.

Abeam79 · Sat Apr 01, 2017 12:36 am

Polot wrote:
TheLion wrote:
DDR wrote:
Congrats to AS for keeping the A321 orders. Our passengers love the planes and I'm sure AS passengers will as well.

Agreed. Keeping the A321s makes a lot of sense. If they perform well, expect AS to order more, perhaps even A321neoLR to try longer routes to Europe and South America.

Not from their hubs...

The A321LR is ill suited for a west coast airline.

As polot said, the A321LR won't make sense, from the west coast they can't expand with the LR's range anywhere near Europe. I surmise they will test the waters with operating a few years on a dual fleet of airbus and Boeing, then if it seems to work, I can see merger part 2 with the new Alaska and jetblue. They will be quite the carrier, each want access on their respective coasts, and the synergies will be very beneficial especially with AS routes to Hawaii, and B6's carribean and Latam network and very possibly Europe on the horizon. That will be a prudent merger imo. All major coasts markets covered, and big international potential

downdata · Sat Apr 01, 2017 12:38 am

I hear they are going all COMAC after 2024

Softaero · Sat Apr 01, 2017 12:43 am

aviationjunky wrote:
intotheair wrote:
aviationjunky wrote:
Just an observation: looks like AS wikipeida page was finally updated to include VX aircraft.

http://www.en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alaska_Airlines

Interesting, looks like it was done in the last two minutes, because it was not there when I looked at it in order to write my post.

That's what I was saying. I looked 15 minutes ago and it wasn't there.

https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Alaska_Airlines&diff=773159841&oldid=772896157

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