skipness1E
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Air Canada Transatlantic from Halifax / Ottawa post B767

Mon Mar 20, 2017 2:53 pm

What's the plan for the likes of YOW-LHR and YHZ-LHR once the B763s are gone? The B787-8 is too much aircraft IMHO so will these routes be rouged or dropped? Or is the B737 MAX the solution?
 
hkcanadaexpat
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Re: Air Canada Transatlantic from Halifax / Ottawa post B767

Mon Mar 20, 2017 3:03 pm

yow-lhr is going nowhere . too much government contract flying. it will go 788/333 like all other TATL routes I believe. but a few 763s will be around for next 24 months or so, so not imminent. I assume yhz-lhr the same. the one that should go Rouge is YYC-OGG, surprised it hasn't done so yet.

Remaining 763 routes (mainline) are:
yyz-yvr
yyz-yyc
yvr-yul (going 333 from 1/5)
yyz-sfo
yyz-lax (going 321 from 1/5)
yyz-yow-lhr
yyz-yhz-lhr
yyc-nrt
yyc-ogg
yyz-mad (going 789 from 8/4)
yul-lys

there are 3 more frames leaving the fleet before year end but one frame is currently in SNN. With MAD, YUL and LAX transitioning away from 763 flying in the next little while, that should cover the retired frames so there is no need to swap the other routes in 2017.
 
Thenoflyzone
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Re: Air Canada Transatlantic from Halifax / Ottawa post B767

Mon Mar 20, 2017 4:14 pm

AC should have ordered more than just 8 B788s. Had they done that, YYC-NRT, YOW-LHR/FRA and YHZ-LHR would have the 788 by now.
us Air Traffic Controllers have a good record, we haven't left one up there yet !!
 
flipdewaf
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Re: Air Canada Transatlantic from Halifax / Ottawa post B767

Mon Mar 20, 2017 4:25 pm

Thenoflyzone wrote:
AC should have ordered more than just 8 B788s. Had they done that, YYC-NRT, YOW-LHR/FRA and YHZ-LHR would have the 788 by now.

Yeah but its much nicer to fly on the 767 than on the 787 so for people who are flying its better how it is.

Fred
Image
 
1900Driver
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Re: Air Canada Transatlantic from Halifax / Ottawa post B767

Mon Mar 20, 2017 5:14 pm

Thenoflyzone wrote:
AC should have ordered more than just 8 B788s. Had they done that, YYC-NRT, YOW-LHR/FRA and YHZ-LHR would have the 788 by now.


They did originally, but converted the balance of the orders to 789. I could see yow going 333 & yyc-nrt perhaps back to 788? The max 8 or 9 should be able to handle yhz-lhr with a full load according to their specs (& depending on stops cert). Though, I am not sure how much cargo business they will have to give up??

As for yul-lys, I believe it's going 333 this summer. Not sure about winter 17/18?
 
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longhauler
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Re: Air Canada Transatlantic from Halifax / Ottawa post B767

Mon Mar 20, 2017 5:21 pm

Thenoflyzone wrote:
AC should have ordered more than just 8 B788s. Had they done that, YYC-NRT, YOW-LHR/FRA and YHZ-LHR would have the 788 by now.

Had the 787s been delivered on time, then everything would be replaced, not just those routes. The per flight cost of the 787 is so much less than the 767 that even with the 767 load, a profit will be made. The last hold outs for long range 767 flying are not routes that could not justify a 787, but routes which presently can be handled by a 767. Their 787 time will come as more are delivered.

The only exception might be YHZ-LHR. Rumours are running that when the MAX-8 is delivered, YHZ-LHR will be replaced by two MAX-8s flying YHZ-LHR and YHZ-FRA.

Like the A319 vs the A320, 737-700 vs the 737-800, the A330-200 vs the A330-300, etc. the larger version of an airframe usually offers far greater capability for a marginal increase in operating cost. the -8 vs the -9 is no different. My guess is that had AC been able, all 787s would be -9s.
Just because I stopped arguing, doesn't mean I think you are right. It just means I gave up!
 
NichCage
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Re: Air Canada Transatlantic from Halifax / Ottawa post B767

Mon Mar 20, 2017 7:00 pm

How is Air Canada doing on YOW-FRA? It was turned from year round to seasonal, but is it profitable? What traffic does the route serve?
 
drgmobile
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Re: Air Canada Transatlantic from Halifax / Ottawa post B767

Mon Mar 20, 2017 7:02 pm

skipness1E wrote:
What's the plan for the likes of YOW-LHR and YHZ-LHR once the B763s are gone? The B787-8 is too much aircraft IMHO so will these routes be rouged or dropped? Or is the B737 MAX the solution?


What is the reason for saying it's "too much aircraft?" Simply because it has 38 more seats? The 787-8 may have more seats but it can fly them at much better economics so the extra passengers and cargo are like gravy. This has been happening across the system through larger aircraft on routes and more seats on existing aircraft. Passenger traffic growth in Canada has been outpacing growth in frequencies through larger and fuller aircraft. We'll see more of this as the Toronto Pearson hub becomes more and more capacity constrained, carriers will fly larger aircraft to adjust.
 
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aemoreira1981
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Re: Air Canada Transatlantic from Halifax / Ottawa post B767

Mon Mar 20, 2017 7:10 pm

This is where an A321neoLR lease should be considered with Air Lease Corporation or some other lessor for faster delivery...with some direct orders down the line. They could also be used on transcon routes.
 
Dominion301
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Re: Air Canada Transatlantic from Halifax / Ottawa post B767

Mon Mar 20, 2017 7:35 pm

NichCage wrote:
How is Air Canada doing on YOW-FRA? It was turned from year round to seasonal, but is it profitable? What traffic does the route serve?


When operating, YOW-FRA typically pulls loads in the 80s. I personally think the only reasons why it went seasonal is a) due to AC's massive build-up at their hubs (AC has cut YOW in recent years to pump up yields to offset yield dilution at their hubs), b) a lack of competition at YOW and c) like longhauler said delays in 787 deliveries resulting in aircraft shortages at AC.

I took YOW-FRA many times when it used to operate both year-round and as a full summer-seasonal and I was never on a flight with a load under 85%. AC due to the YOW airport authority's abysmal track record with air service development knows they can get away with "highway robbery" at YOW by cutting capacity while they increase it practically everywhere else. YOW-LHR can easily handle a 788. They used a 333 on the route a few summers ago when they had an incentive to help put YOW-based Zoom out of business.

I think YHZ-LHR will go 737 in winter to allow for year-round daily service and be a 788 in summer. YHZ-FRA on a 737 interesting idea! Condor wouldn't be happy about that!
 
westaust
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Re: Air Canada Transatlantic from Halifax / Ottawa post B767

Mon Mar 20, 2017 7:37 pm

hkcanadaexpat wrote:
yow-lhr is going nowhere . too much government contract flying. it will go 788/333 like all other TATL routes I believe. but a few 763s will be around for next 24 months or so, so not imminent. I assume yhz-lhr the same. the one that should go Rouge is YYC-OGG, surprised it hasn't done so yet.


No Rouge base in YYC, that's why it's still mainline.
 
dr1980
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Re: Air Canada Transatlantic from Halifax / Ottawa post B767

Mon Mar 20, 2017 9:56 pm

longhauler wrote:
The only exception might be YHZ-LHR. Rumours are running that when the MAX-8 is delivered, YHZ-LHR will be replaced by two MAX-8s flying YHZ-LHR and YHZ-FRA.


I have to say as a Haligonian I find that very interesting!
 
whywhyzee
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Re: Air Canada Transatlantic from Halifax / Ottawa post B767

Mon Mar 20, 2017 11:41 pm

Thenoflyzone wrote:
AC should have ordered more than just 8 B788s. Had they done that, YYC-NRT, YOW-LHR/FRA and YHZ-LHR would have the 788 by now.

Had they done that, they wouldn't have had the necessary frames for hubs like YYZ and YVR. Remember they still hold 23 787 options, I'd say they are pretty likely to exercise them, a number of 78J's for YYZ would then alleviate strain on the 789's and 788's which can be used elsewhere.
 
1900Driver
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Re: Air Canada Transatlantic from Halifax / Ottawa post B767

Tue Mar 21, 2017 8:13 pm

Dominion301 wrote:
NichCage wrote:
How is Air Canada doing on YOW-FRA? It was turned from year round to seasonal, but is it profitable? What traffic does the route serve?


When operating, YOW-FRA typically pulls loads in the 80s. I personally think the only reasons why it went seasonal is a) due to AC's massive build-up at their hubs (AC has cut YOW in recent years to pump up yields to offset yield dilution at their hubs), b) a lack of competition at YOW and c) like longhauler said delays in 787 deliveries resulting in aircraft shortages at AC.

I took YOW-FRA many times when it used to operate both year-round and as a full summer-seasonal and I was never on a flight with a load under 85%. AC due to the YOW airport authority's abysmal track record with air service development knows they can get away with "highway robbery" at YOW by cutting capacity while they increase it practically everywhere else. YOW-LHR can easily handle a 788. They used a 333 on the route a few summers ago when they had an incentive to help put YOW-based Zoom out of business.

I think YHZ-LHR will go 737 in winter to allow for year-round daily service and be a 788 in summer. YHZ-FRA on a 737 interesting idea! Condor wouldn't be happy about that!



Perhaps, but I think you're over looking the main problem with air travel out of Canada & that's seasonality. Practically anything (within reason) could work to Europe in the summer & Xmas holiday. Was YOW-FRA profitable during the winter months? Perhaps/perhaps not? Did AC feel that the opportunity cost of utilizing that 763 was too great relative to somewhere else in the network? Maybe? I personally believe that the route would still be there if was achieving their fiscal targets.

It would be nice to see it come back. Perhaps Max8 would render it viable year round?
 
1900Driver
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Re: Air Canada Transatlantic from Halifax / Ottawa post B767

Tue Mar 21, 2017 8:25 pm

Let's add another dynamic variable to this discussion. Suppose BA or AF/KLM enters the market? How would AC react?
 
Alexdk
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Re: Air Canada Transatlantic from Halifax / Ottawa post B767

Tue Mar 21, 2017 8:28 pm

aemoreira1981 wrote:
This is where an A321neoLR lease should be considered with Air Lease Corporation or some other lessor for faster delivery...with some direct orders down the line. They could also be used on transcon routes.

I was quite surprised when I found out that AC did not order them or any new Airbus.
 
Dominion301
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Re: Air Canada Transatlantic from Halifax / Ottawa post B767

Tue Mar 21, 2017 8:28 pm

1900Driver wrote:
Dominion301 wrote:
NichCage wrote:
How is Air Canada doing on YOW-FRA? It was turned from year round to seasonal, but is it profitable? What traffic does the route serve?


When operating, YOW-FRA typically pulls loads in the 80s. I personally think the only reasons why it went seasonal is a) due to AC's massive build-up at their hubs (AC has cut YOW in recent years to pump up yields to offset yield dilution at their hubs), b) a lack of competition at YOW and c) like longhauler said delays in 787 deliveries resulting in aircraft shortages at AC.

I took YOW-FRA many times when it used to operate both year-round and as a full summer-seasonal and I was never on a flight with a load under 85%. AC due to the YOW airport authority's abysmal track record with air service development knows they can get away with "highway robbery" at YOW by cutting capacity while they increase it practically everywhere else. YOW-LHR can easily handle a 788. They used a 333 on the route a few summers ago when they had an incentive to help put YOW-based Zoom out of business.

I think YHZ-LHR will go 737 in winter to allow for year-round daily service and be a 788 in summer. YHZ-FRA on a 737 interesting idea! Condor wouldn't be happy about that!


Sadly I don't think the MAX8 will be within YOW-FRA's range. The 321LR would be had AC ordered that. At this point, I just hope that YOW-FRA returns to a full IATA summer season in 2018.
Perhaps, but I think you're over looking the main problem with air travel out of Canada & that's seasonality. Practically anything (within reason) could work to Europe in the summer & Xmas holiday. Was YOW-FRA profitable during the winter months? Perhaps/perhaps not? Did AC feel that the opportunity cost of utilizing that 763 was too great relative to somewhere else in the network? Maybe? I personally believe that the route would still be there if was achieving their fiscal targets.

It would be nice to see it come back. Perhaps Max8 would render it viable year round?


I don't know whether the 737-8 has the range to do YOW-FRA, especially eastbound in winter. The 321LR probably would have. Either way, I'd be happy just to see the route return to a full IATA summer schedule (i.e. starting around April 1st) instead of Victoria Day weekend. I have taken AC838/839 in early May (when it existed) several times and I was never on a flight with a load under 95%. That doesn't just suddenly disappear...nor does it suddenly appear as of Victoria Day.
 
beechnut
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Re: Air Canada Transatlantic from Halifax / Ottawa post B767

Tue Mar 21, 2017 9:01 pm

Dominion301 wrote:
1900Driver wrote:
Dominion301 wrote:

I don't know whether the 737-8 has the range to do YOW-FRA, especially eastbound in winter. The 321LR probably would have.


I think you meant westbound. Eastbound in winter should be a cinch. But westbound is another matter.

Beech
 
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canadianpylon
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Re: Air Canada Transatlantic from Halifax / Ottawa post B767

Tue Mar 21, 2017 9:25 pm

dr1980 wrote:
longhauler wrote:
The only exception might be YHZ-LHR. Rumours are running that when the MAX-8 is delivered, YHZ-LHR will be replaced by two MAX-8s flying YHZ-LHR and YHZ-FRA.


I have to say as a Haligonian I find that very interesting!


Wouldn't that be giving up a lot of belly space for cargo? I thought AC had a fair amount of cargo on this route.
Always looking for the longest route with the most transfers.
 
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767333ER
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Re: Air Canada Transatlantic from Halifax / Ottawa post B767

Tue Mar 21, 2017 10:17 pm

Thenoflyzone wrote:
AC should have ordered more than just 8 B788s. Had they done that, YYC-NRT, YOW-LHR/FRA and YHZ-LHR would have the 788 by now.

But I think this is why Boeing is looking at an MOM. The 788 is pretty much dead at this point with the 789 being superior in just about every metric and it not being the 767 replacement it was advertised to be. It's too much for one mission, but for the other it's not good enough. I am not saying this is necessarily the case for Air Canada as they have seemed to make due with them, but I don't think it's that likely there will be more than 8. UA for example has said the 788 is not what it was advertized to be or in other words is not th perfect 767 replacement which is why they are holding on to their 767s. AC has all the 767s they need in RV and probably doesn't really have much use for them in mainline because the 788 is good enough at this point. And YYC-NRT is 788 seasonally specifically in the summer.

"Air Canada" is in the title, either I am missing something or jimbo is late...
Been on: 732 733 734 73G 738 752 763 A319 A320 A321 CRJ CR7 CRA/CR9 E145 E175 E190 F28 MD-82 MD-83 C172S P2006T
 
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TheLion
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Re: Air Canada Transatlantic from Halifax / Ottawa post B767

Wed Mar 22, 2017 1:00 am

1900Driver wrote:
Let's add another dynamic variable to this discussion. Suppose BA or AF/KLM enters the market? How would AC react?


Definitely these are conceivable routes in the midterm future.

It's not quite the right time at the moment for either airline to launch this route that said, with Brexit, political upheaval, a shaky global economy etc. However the A321neoLR could well be the perfect frame to launch daily service on BA from LHR in future.

As for a potential AMS route on KL, perhaps the MAX might work there should KL order them to replace their 737s, or again on the A321neoLR which I could see KL using to open up secondary cities in North America, the Middle East, Central Asia & Africa.
 
whywhyzee
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Re: Air Canada Transatlantic from Halifax / Ottawa post B767

Wed Mar 22, 2017 1:20 am

"Air Canada" is in the title, either I am missing something or jimbo is late...[/quote]

I'm eagerly waiting for him as well to tell us that it is completely unsustainable and eventually they will succumb to dilution of yields and die.

In all honesty, this is the perfect new Boeing MoM route, though lately, AC seems to be doing more centralizing, is it really worth it to continue one of the more marginal routes when there are 3/4 daily AC/LH options to FRA, and 2 from YUL. That would boost yields, and at the same time, it removes the need for a sub-fleet.
 
Dominion301
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Re: Air Canada Transatlantic from Halifax / Ottawa post B767

Wed Mar 22, 2017 12:54 pm

beechnut wrote:
Dominion301 wrote:
1900Driver wrote:


I think you meant westbound. Eastbound in winter should be a cinch. But westbound is another matter.

Beech


Yup...oops!
 
bmacleod
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Re: Air Canada Transatlantic from Halifax / Ottawa post B767

Thu Mar 23, 2017 1:43 pm

skipness1E wrote:
What's the plan for the likes of YOW-LHR and YHZ-LHR once the B763s are gone? The B787-8 is too much aircraft IMHO so will these routes be rouged or dropped? Or is the B737 MAX the solution?


Too much aircraft?...Maybe...looking around 20-30 seats more on the 787-8.

https://www.aircanada.com/ca/en/aco/home/fly/onboard/fleet.html

AC could always put more business seats on the 787-8 for YOW-LHR. The load factors must be very good.

Question is with YHZ-LHR - Halifax economy quite smaller than Ottawa but the 737 MAX still looks too small.
"What good are wings without the courage to fly?" - Atticus
 
airbazar
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Re: Air Canada Transatlantic from Halifax / Ottawa post B767

Thu Mar 23, 2017 2:57 pm

Alexdk wrote:
aemoreira1981 wrote:
This is where an A321neoLR lease should be considered with Air Lease Corporation or some other lessor for faster delivery...with some direct orders down the line. They could also be used on transcon routes.

I was quite surprised when I found out that AC did not order them or any new Airbus.

The A321LR does not fit AC. Canada is a relatively small country population wise, where the majority of the population lives within a short driving distance of a major airport where they can catch a flight on a widebody.
http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2014/04/17 ... 69055.html
Routes for the A321LR in AC's network are too few to justify a small fleet when the future NB fleet will be comprised of the CS300 and 737MAX.
 
bmacleod
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Re: Air Canada Transatlantic from Halifax / Ottawa post B767

Thu Mar 23, 2017 5:29 pm

1900Driver wrote:
Thenoflyzone wrote:
AC should have ordered more than just 8 B788s. Had they done that, YYC-NRT, YOW-LHR/FRA and YHZ-LHR would have the 788 by now.


They did originally, but converted the balance of the orders to 789. I could see yow going 333 & yyc-nrt perhaps back to 788? The max 8 or 9 should be able to handle yhz-lhr with a full load according to their specs (& depending on stops cert). Though, I am not sure how much cargo business they will have to give up??


Cargojet flies 763s into YHZ. Assuming the 737-MAX-9 did takeover YHZ-LHR; theoretically the Cargojet 763 could takeover cargo operations for that route as AC have an operations arrangement with them...

http://www.cargojet.com/pressReleases/2016/2016-09.htm
"What good are wings without the courage to fly?" - Atticus
 
1900Driver
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Re: Air Canada Transatlantic from Halifax / Ottawa post B767

Fri Mar 24, 2017 4:12 pm

bmacleod wrote:
1900Driver wrote:
Thenoflyzone wrote:
AC should have ordered more than just 8 B788s. Had they done that, YYC-NRT, YOW-LHR/FRA and YHZ-LHR would have the 788 by now.


They did originally, but converted the balance of the orders to 789. I could see yow going 333 & yyc-nrt perhaps back to 788? The max 8 or 9 should be able to handle yhz-lhr with a full load according to their specs (& depending on stops cert). Though, I am not sure how much cargo business they will have to give up??


Cargojet flies 763s into YHZ. Assuming the 737-MAX-9 did takeover YHZ-LHR; theoretically the Cargojet 763 could takeover cargo operations for that route as AC have an operations arrangement with them...

http://www.cargojet.com/pressReleases/2016/2016-09.htm


Good point.
 
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longhauler
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Re: Air Canada Transatlantic from Halifax / Ottawa post B767

Fri Mar 24, 2017 4:20 pm

bmacleod wrote:
Cargojet flies 763s into YHZ. Assuming the 737-MAX-9 did takeover YHZ-LHR; theoretically the Cargojet 763 could takeover cargo operations for that route as AC have an operations arrangement with them...

Not for very much longer.

An extension is being considered, but even if allowed, it would not extend past this year.
Just because I stopped arguing, doesn't mean I think you are right. It just means I gave up!
 
bmacleod
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Re: Air Canada Transatlantic from Halifax / Ottawa post B767

Fri Mar 24, 2017 4:45 pm

longhauler wrote:
bmacleod wrote:
Cargojet flies 763s into YHZ. Assuming the 737-MAX-9 did takeover YHZ-LHR; theoretically the Cargojet 763 could takeover cargo operations for that route as AC have an operations arrangement with them...

Not for very much longer.

An extension is being considered, but even if allowed, it would not extend past this year.


Well in that case it looks like forthcoming YHZ 788 service to LHR should be safe if the economic reports predicting strong growth are correct.

http://thechronicleherald.ca/halifaxpartnership/1374645-a-strong-year-for-growth-in-halifax

Until then one option is two have 4-5 days 788 YHZ-LHR service, and remaining 2-3 days going YHZ-YUL-LHR or YHZ-YOW-LHR.
"What good are wings without the courage to fly?" - Atticus

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