Southwest actually has room to expand both domestically and internationally at Houston Hobby. There is currently no nonstop service from Houston Hobby to Sacramento, Minneapolis/St. Paul, Milwaukee, Detroit, Louisville, Cincinnati, Columbus, Cleveland, and Philadelphia. Will Southwest take advantage of the opportunity to add new nonstop routes out of Houston Hobby to these 9 markets?

Southwest has plans to expand internationally and to add service to new international destinations. What new international destinations will Southwest fly to next from Houston Hobby?

My guess is PTY is on the short list.

I would love to see them extend 4/22 and 31L/13R another 500' on each end - there's certainly room for it.
The MAX seems like it will require some extra pavement to go the full distance.

jplatts wrote:

Southwest actually has room to expand both domestically and internationally at Houston Hobby. There is currently no nonstop service from Houston Hobby to Sacramento, Minneapolis/St. Paul, Milwaukee, Detroit, Louisville, Cincinnati, Columbus, Cleveland, and Philadelphia. Will Southwest take advantage of the opportunity to add new nonstop routes out of Houston Hobby to these 9 markets?

Southwest has plans to expand internationally and to add service to new international destinations. What new international destinations will Southwest fly to next from Houston Hobby?

WN used to serve HOU-PHL and more recently used to serve HOU-EWR, the closest major airport for Northern and Central NJ. Interestingly in MKE, Southwest is the largest carrier there, but doesn't fly either MKE-BNA or MKE-HOU, even though it's to another major WN station in the same time zone, so not incredibly far. WN might struggle on some markets against UA (at IAH) or reluctant to compete again on HOU-PHL atleast. Atleast with DAL, it has some advantage with DAL being closer to downtown Dallas to make domestic routes work out of pax preference of DAL against the DFW carriers, and maybe the difference origin out of and demand to Dallas is also greater than Houston. WN seems to have greater confidence with DAL (against AA/DFW) than it does out of HOU (against UA/IAH).

Perhaps my information is out of date, but I thought WN was pretty much tapped out in terms of aircraft availability due to the retirement of the 300s. It seems like they will need to build up a fleet of MAX before they can think seriously about many new routes or expansion plans.

orangeguy wrote:

Perhaps my information is out of date, but I thought WN was pretty much tapped out in terms of aircraft availability due to the retirement of the 300s. It seems like they will need to build up a fleet of MAX before they can think seriously about many new routes or expansion plans.

Yes you are correct as 78 300's now flying will be gone by Oct 1. 12 more used 700's are coming on board and some new 800's but there will still be a significant gap

A question mark at the end of that thread title would have been useful.

Maybe WN should serve more California markets from Houston? Just a guess.

n471wn wrote:

orangeguy wrote:

Perhaps my information is out of date, but I thought WN was pretty much tapped out in terms of aircraft availability due to the retirement of the 300s. It seems like they will need to build up a fleet of MAX before they can think seriously about many new routes or expansion plans.

Yes you are correct as 78 300's now flying will be gone by Oct 1. 12 more used 700's are coming on board and some new 800's but there will still be a significant gap

Not really that big of a gap...

87 retirements but 67 additions to the fleet this year. It's crazy that WN will have 154 A/C transactions in 2017 ALONE. But those additions are almost all 175 seats, while retirements are 137 or 143 seats. The gap gets even smaller. And by next year the fleet is growing again.

MIflyer12 wrote:

A question mark at the end of that thread title would have been useful.

Exactly. Dropping SEA and PDX out of HOU doesn't sound to me like an expansion.

SEA is seasonal iirc...I don't recall if PDX is

Southwest had expressed their interest in BOG sometime ago, so probably still in their radar.

barney captain wrote:

My guess is PTY is on the short list.

I would love to see them extend 4/22 and 31L/13R another 500' on each end - there's certainly room for it.
The MAX seems like it will require some extra pavement to go the full distance.

PTY is a transit point more than anything, not sure what Southwest could do there.

20 aircraft net loss for an airline is a huge hit

MIflyer12 wrote:

A question mark at the end of that thread title would have been useful.

I thought that was traditional for any new A.net thread...

jfklganyc wrote:

20 aircraft net loss for an airline is a huge hit

It's far less than that when you look at seat totals, and you can make up for that by reducing the number of spare A/C, longer days, etc.

It's pretty obvious when the schedule after the classic retirement didn't really change. No cuts other than typical seasonal stuff.

jfklganyc wrote:

20 aircraft net loss for an airline is a huge hit

That's only until April 2018 then WN will rapidly increase to positive fleet growth opportunities for summer 2018.

Flyguy

737max8 wrote:

jfklganyc wrote:

20 aircraft net loss for an airline is a huge hit

It's far less than that when you look at seat totals, and you can make up for that by reducing the number of spare A/C, longer days, etc.

Another, albeit slight bonus - I am sure that the 'new' aircraft are more reliable that the ones that they are replacing - if not more capable. I mean, losing a 733, at a lower seat count, and lower range - and replacing it with a 738 certainly does have advantages - especially when one is new, and the other - a workhorse (and I will not say that it is unsafe at all) that though well maintained, is older. I am, by no means a WN-fanboy, but this is good news for them. Can't wait to see the MAXs come on property - and see them really reap the rewards further. "Growing pains" aside, good on them for making the move, and now.

Backing to the topic, let's see how the Houston economy improves in the coming years. Perhaps, as most have voiced - a healthier O/D might be the issue at hand. It is no surprise given Houston's ties to the petro-chemical industry, but - things might be looking up, and soon.

drerx7 wrote:

SEA is seasonal iirc...I don't recall if PDX is

PDX-HOU has been year round not seasonal.

Rajahdhani wrote:

Backing to the topic, let's see how the Houston economy improves in the coming years. Perhaps, as most have voiced - a healthier O/D might be the issue at hand. It is no surprise given Houston's ties to the petro-chemical industry, but - things might be looking up, and soon.

For 2016, HOU's O&D traffic is up 10% and IAH's is essentially flat.

http://www.fly2houston.com/newsroom/med ... tatistics/

jbpdx wrote:

drerx7 wrote:

SEA is seasonal iirc...I don't recall if PDX is

PDX-HOU has been year round not seasonal.

This fall, PDX-HOU seems to have gone away. Maybe a temporary pause due to fleet retirement, maybe a switch to seasonal?

bogota wrote:

Southwest had expressed their interest in BOG sometime ago, so probably still in their radar.

I hope so.... UA and AV are killing us with their high fares

This fall, PDX-HOU seems to have gone away. Maybe a temporary pause due to fleet retirement, maybe a switch to seasonal?

PDX-HOU has all year for 1 year. Previous to that, it was seasonal for several years. Just speculation, but I would imagine it has been returned to seasonal.

Upgauged app/DOT shows WN PDX-HOU with a 92% load factor for June 2016.

737max8 wrote:

But those additions are almost all 175 seats, while retirements are 137 or 143 seats. The gap gets even smaller. And by next year the fleet is growing again.

How will that actually help with fleet availability to serve more destinations, though?

A plane can only go to one destination at a time, no matter how many people it holds. Unless the thinking is that the higher capacity will allow them to reduce frequencies on some routes, I suppose.

BerenErchamion wrote:

737max8 wrote:

But those additions are almost all 175 seats, while retirements are 137 or 143 seats. The gap gets even smaller. And by next year the fleet is growing again.

How will that actually help with fleet availability to serve more destinations, though?

A plane can only go to one destination at a time, no matter how many people it holds. Unless the thinking is that the higher capacity will allow them to reduce frequencies on some routes, I suppose.

Southwest plans to receive 737 MAX 7 planes in 2019, and the 737 MAX 7 is slightly larger than the 737-300 and 737-700 but smaller than the 737-800 and 737 MAX 8. Southwest's 737 MAX 7 planes will seat 150 passengers, whereas Southwest's 737-300 and 737-700 planes seat 143 passengers.

phluser wrote:

jplatts wrote:

Southwest actually has room to expand both domestically and internationally at Houston Hobby. There is currently no nonstop service from Houston Hobby to Sacramento, Minneapolis/St. Paul, Milwaukee, Detroit, Louisville, Cincinnati, Columbus, Cleveland, and Philadelphia. Will Southwest take advantage of the opportunity to add new nonstop routes out of Houston Hobby to these 9 markets?

Southwest has plans to expand internationally and to add service to new international destinations. What new international destinations will Southwest fly to next from Houston Hobby?

WN used to serve HOU-PHL and more recently used to serve HOU-EWR, the closest major airport for Northern and Central NJ. Interestingly in MKE, Southwest is the largest carrier there, but doesn't fly either MKE-BNA or MKE-HOU, even though it's to another major WN station in the same time zone, so not incredibly far. WN might struggle on some markets against UA (at IAH) or reluctant to compete again on HOU-PHL atleast. Atleast with DAL, it has some advantage with DAL being closer to downtown Dallas to make domestic routes work out of pax preference of DAL against the DFW carriers, and maybe the difference origin out of and demand to Dallas is also greater than Houston. WN seems to have greater confidence with DAL (against AA/DFW) than it does out of HOU (against UA/IAH).

Southwest might be able to do well on the HOU-PHL nonstop route if Southwest revived nonstop service between HOU and PHL because US Airways pulled out of Star Alliance and ended its codeshare relationship with United with the American-US Airways merger, and also because some of the Houston-area customers prefer Southwest and/or United over American. In addition, Southwest now has international service out of Houston, and a HOU-PHL nonstop would allow Philadelphia-area customers access to Southwest's international destinations and vice versa.

jplatts wrote:

Southwest actually has room to expand both domestically and internationally at Houston Hobby. There is currently no nonstop service from Houston Hobby to Sacramento, Minneapolis/St. Paul, Milwaukee, Detroit, Louisville, Cincinnati, Columbus, Cleveland, and Philadelphia. Will Southwest take advantage of the opportunity to add new nonstop routes out of Houston Hobby to these 9 markets?

Southwest has plans to expand internationally and to add service to new international destinations. What new international destinations will Southwest fly to next from Houston Hobby?

I always thought that Southwest will expand both domestically and internationally at Houston Hobby, and I think that Southwest will eventually add nonstop service to at least Sacramento, Minneapolis/St. Paul, Milwaukee, Cincinnati, and Columbus from Houston Hobby.

Even though Southwest has nonstops from Houston Hobby to Oakland, LAX, and Orange County, will Southwest add nonstops from Houston to San Francisco Int'l Airport, San Jose, Burbank, or Ontario, California?

jplatts wrote:

BerenErchamion wrote:

737max8 wrote:

But those additions are almost all 175 seats, while retirements are 137 or 143 seats. The gap gets even smaller. And by next year the fleet is growing again.

How will that actually help with fleet availability to serve more destinations, though?

A plane can only go to one destination at a time, no matter how many people it holds. Unless the thinking is that the higher capacity will allow them to reduce frequencies on some routes, I suppose.

Southwest plans to receive 737 MAX 7 planes in 2019, and the 737 MAX 7 is slightly larger than the 737-300 and 737-700 but smaller than the 737-800 and 737 MAX 8. Southwest's 737 MAX 7 planes will seat 150 passengers, whereas Southwest's 737-300 and 737-700 planes seat 143 passengers.

That doesn't actually answer the question. Everyone knows that the capacity is higher; but the higher capacity doesn't magically allow it to fly two routes at once.

In order to actually fly new routes with a fleet utilized to full capacity (which is the premise under discussion), you have to either cut some existing routes or add new planes. Replacing a part of the current fleet with a smaller number of larger planes may give you the same or even more seats to sell, but it won't actually give you the spare fleet capacity to fly new routes without first cutting some existing ones.

jplatts wrote:

BerenErchamion wrote:

737max8 wrote:

But those additions are almost all 175 seats, while retirements are 137 or 143 seats. The gap gets even smaller. And by next year the fleet is growing again.

How will that actually help with fleet availability to serve more destinations, though?

A plane can only go to one destination at a time, no matter how many people it holds. Unless the thinking is that the higher capacity will allow them to reduce frequencies on some routes, I suppose.

Southwest plans to receive 737 MAX 7 planes in 2019, and the 737 MAX 7 is slightly larger than the 737-300 and 737-700 but smaller than the 737-800 and 737 MAX 8. Southwest's 737 MAX 7 planes will seat 150 passengers, whereas Southwest's 737-300 and 737-700 planes seat 143 passengers.

Your response has nothing to do with what the previous users were saying. Slow down with the posts... PLEASE.

The top markets out of Houston that currently do not have nonstop service from Houston Hobby are Newark, San Francisco, Detroit, Minneapolis/St. Paul, Philadelphia, Washington-Dulles, Cincinnati, Cleveland, San Jose (CA), Columbus (OH), Sacramento, Milwaukee, and Richmond.

Southwest did previously have nonstop service from HOU to EWR and PHL, and Southwest will be starting seasonal nonstop service between Houston and Columbus on November 17th.

Southwest does have the Houston-NYC, Houston-DC, and Houston-San Francisco markets covered by HOU-LGA, HOU-DCA, HOU-BWI, and HOU-OAK nonstops. Is there enough demand for Southwest to add HOU-SFO and HOU-IAD nonstops? Southwest does serve both SFO and IAD, even though Southwest does not do any nonstops to HOU from SFO or IAD.

Even though Southwest discontinued HOU-EWR nonstop service, EWR is currently the largest market without nonstop service from HOU and Southwest only does 2 nonstops between HOU and LGA. Southwest currently doesn't have room to expand further at LGA and there might possibly be enough demand for Southwest to revive HOU-EWR nonstop service. Will Southwest revive HOU-EWR nonstop service?

MSP is one of the largest markets out of Houston that is not served nonstop from HOU. In addition, there are only two legacy carriers (UA and DL) who have year-round nonstop service between IAH and MSP and Spirit only operates IAH-MSP nonstop service on a seasonal schedule. Sun Country doesn't even serve either Houston Airport. Southwest could add nonstop service between HOU-MSP, and there might be enough demand for Southwest do add HOU-MSP nonstop service.

CVG is one of the largest markets out of Houston that is not served nonstop from HOU, and Southwest started nonstop service from CVG to MDW and BWI today.

CLE is one of the largest markets out of Houston that is not served nonstop from HOU, and there was even significant demand for Cleveland to Houston flights prior to the United-Continental merger. Even though demand for Cleveland to Houston flights have dropped with the UA-CO merger and the UA CLE dehubbing, CLE is still one of the largest markets from Houston that is without nonstop service to HOU.

SJC is one of the largest markets that is not served nonstop from HOU, but Southwest operates nonstops to SJC from AUS and DAL. There is probably still business travel between Houston and SJC since HP and HPE still both have offices at Compaq's former headquarters in Houston, and there might possibly be enough demand for Southwest to add nonstop flights between HOU and SJC with HP and HPE having offices in the Houston area.

phluser wrote:

WN used to serve HOU-PHL and more recently used to serve HOU-EWR, the closest major airport for Northern and Central NJ. Interestingly in MKE, Southwest is the largest carrier there, but doesn't fly either MKE-BNA or MKE-HOU, even though it's to another major WN station in the same time zone, so not incredibly far. WN might struggle on some markets against UA (at IAH) or reluctant to compete again on HOU-PHL atleast. Atleast with DAL, it has some advantage with DAL being closer to downtown Dallas to make domestic routes work out of pax preference of DAL against the DFW carriers, and maybe the difference origin out of and demand to Dallas is also greater than Houston. WN seems to have greater confidence with DAL (against AA/DFW) than it does out of HOU (against UA/IAH).

Southwest has a significant presence at DEN and LAX, both of which are also United Airlines hub airports, and also operates out of SFO, EWR, and IAD, all of which are hubs for United Airlines. Southwest also has a significant presence at OAK, which is near United's SFO hub, at BWI, which serves the Washington, D.C. area along with IAD (an United Airlines hub airport) and DCA, and at MDW, which is near United's home base at ORD. Southwest also does flights out of LGA that compete against United flights out of EWR. Southwest and United actually both have a significant presence in 6 of the 7 United Airlines hub cities in the contiguous U.S., even though Southwest does most of its D.C. area flights out of BWI, does most of its San Francisco Bay Area flights out of OAK, serves Chicago exclusively through MDW, and serves Houston exclusively through HOU.

Why would Southwest struggle against UA on some of the markets out of HOU if it does not have the same issues doing so out of BWI, OAK, or MDW?

BWI and IAD both serve Washington, D.C., but the two airports are on opposite sides of Washington, D.C. and the two airports are almost 60 miles from each other. MDW and ORD are closer to each other than HOU and IAH are or SFO and OAK are, but Southwest has an even larger presence at MDW than it does in HOU. SFO and OAK are on opposite sides of San Francisco Bay and SFO is slightly closer to Downtown SF than OAK is, but the driving distance between HOU and IAH is almost as far as the driving distance between SFO and OAK.

Why would Southwest struggle with competition from UA on HOU-PHL if Southwest still does nonstops to PHL from DEN and MDW, both of which compete against United nonstops to PHL from DEN and ORD, and if Southwest is even going to be adding an additional nonstop from DEN to PHL starting on August 15th?

LAXdude1023 wrote:

Comparing Dallas and Houston to one another isnt an apples to apples comparison. Dallas is a MUCH bigger domestic O&D market than Houston. Its almost 50% larger. Saying "DAL has XYZ, so HOU should have XYZ" isnt a good way to look at it.

SFO, DTW, and PHL, and SJC are some of the largest O&D markets from Houston that are served nonstop from IAH but not from HOU.

LAXdude1023 wrote:

jplatts wrote:

LAXdude1023 wrote:

Comparing Dallas and Houston to one another isnt an apples to apples comparison. Dallas is a MUCH bigger domestic O&D market than Houston. Its almost 50% larger. Saying "DAL has XYZ, so HOU should have XYZ" isnt a good way to look at it.

SFO, DTW, and PHL, and SJC are some of the largest O&D markets from Houston that are served nonstop from IAH but not from HOU.

And the point is?

Southwest actually does have room to add nonstop service from HOU to additional domestic destinations that do not currently have nonstop service from HOU, and Southwest is actually going to be starting HOU-MKE nonstop service on March 8, 2018. Southwest wants to expand domestically out of HOU in order to provide easier access to international connections out of HOU. I do expect Southwest to add nonstop service out of HOU to additional destinations in California, the Midwestern U.S, the Caribbean, Central America, and South America in the near future and I do expect Southwest to announce new nonstop routes out of HOU within the next year.

jplatts wrote:

MSP is one of the largest markets out of Houston that is not served nonstop from HOU. In addition, there are only two legacy carriers (UA and DL) who have year-round nonstop service between IAH and MSP and Spirit only operates IAH-MSP nonstop service on a seasonal schedule. Sun Country doesn't even serve either Houston Airport. Southwest could add nonstop service between HOU-MSP, and there might be enough demand for Southwest do add HOU-MSP nonstop service.

"There MIGHT be enough demand." This could be true, but it needs factual data behind it. Then, there is the issue of which routes in the WN network are higher on the list than HOU-MSP. Do they have adequate gate availability for the schedule times they would like to run flights on this route? Do they have the aircraft to serve this route among their entire network? As you've mentioned, UA and DL serve it just fine. Today, UA ran the following: A319, A319, E170, E170, E175, B737. DL ran 5-CR9's and 1 E170. NK has an A320. Houston, in general, is probably adequately served. Additionally, this is probably the most mainline we have seen from UA on this route since CO served the market.

It seems rather like throwing darts here and seeing if they stick. Sure, as someone who resides in the Twin Cities, I would like to see WN serve about 15 cities at 35-45 flights per day. Today, they won't have the gates or the planes to do so and I would imagine they have other markets (not head-to-head in a DL hub) they would like to focus on.

Before the new WA, WN had the Texas two step, no reason why they cannot on a temporary basis combine some routes using the larger a/c to maintain the same frequencies with less equipment. It can also increase yields as LF should go up allowing an increase in fare.
Just a thought

My predictions for WN expansion at HOU include:

• New nonstop service from HOU to SMF, ONT, MSP, DTW, CVG, and CLE
• Extension of HOU-SEA, HOU-PDX, and HOU-CMH seasonal nonstop service to daily year-round nonstop service
• Revival of HOU-EWR nonstop service if additional HOU-NYC nonstop service is needed since Southwest doesn't have enough slots to add additional HOU-LGA nonstop service beyond the 2 existing HOU-LGA daily nonstops and the already announced 3rd HOU-LGA daily nonstop starting in June 2018
• Revival of HOU-PHL nonstop service since PHL is one of the top destinations traveled to from HOU that doesn't currently have any nonstop service from HOU
• New international nonstop service from HOU to PUJ, NAS, and PLS
• Expansion to new Central American, South American, and Eastern Caribbean destinations that are not currently served from WN along with nonstop service from HOU to these new destinations

phluser wrote:

Interestingly in MKE, Southwest is the largest carrier there, but doesn't fly either MKE-BNA or MKE-HOU, even though it's to another major WN station in the same time zone, so not incredibly far.

MKE-BNA started over a month ago, and MKE-HOU is starting in March (though we are simultaneously losing a flight to DAL).