Airliners.net

Looks like KQ wants to start JFK in may

http://www.nation.co.ke/business/Kenya- ... 00-jjvwcb/

Nothing has been filed with the DOT.

Sounds a bit like nonsense as article states "application was presented at the US Embassy in Nairobi."

That is not how the process works. KQ needs to hire the appropriate counsel here in the US to start the process of a foreign air carrier permit, and then route authority. Once those are in place they can begin the paperwork at airports. Something certainly will not happen by May!

Thanks for the clarit

Yeah it seems pretty weird that they would want to start so soon, even before getting approved. Although I must admit NAI-JFK sounds like a route I would like to see operating!

Sounds like KQ wants to play in the big league's but knows they cant so they make a splash with a headline, then improperly file paper work so it buys more time. Reality is, if they were serious they would follow the proper procedure.

Well, Kenya is a great country and KQ is a decent airline. I'm quite sure that this route wouldn't do too badly. DL has decent feed at JFK, so it might work.

I don't know if you guys realise but NBO-JFK is an incredibly long way, the Atlantic crossing itself representing slightly less than half the trip, which is 7,360 miles, just a little bit less than the Persian Gulf to Florida, Bombay to New York et al. Not saying Kenya Airways or the 787 aren't up to it, but the cost of operating will be high, it's going to burn a lot of fuel en route no matter how efficient the aircraft is, if it's flying for fifteen plus hours. I'm not sure Kenya's economy is up to it. Lots of options on KLM Lufty BA Emirates et al.

NBO-JFK would be a long flight, but it is for sure possible.

Would NBO-IAD also be a market Kenya Airways would want to launch? I've heard that there is good demand between NBO and IAD, and in general IAD and Africa. Ethiopian Airlines flies between ADD and IAD, so Kenya must be a connecting market for them.

Kenya Airways would be better off feeding Delta and KLM at AMS & LHR then flying a 787 all the way to JFK or IAD. Using their 787 to Asia would be more fruitful.

cedarjet wrote:

I don't know if you guys realise but NBO-JFK is an incredibly long way, the Atlantic crossing itself representing slightly less than half the trip, which is 7,360 miles, just a little bit less than the Persian Gulf to Florida, Bombay to New York et al. Not saying Kenya Airways or the 787 aren't up to it, but the cost of operating will be high, it's going to burn a lot of fuel en route no matter how efficient the aircraft is, if it's flying for fifteen plus hours. I'm not sure Kenya's economy is up to it. Lots of options on KLM Lufty BA Emirates et al.

7400mi really isn't that long nowadays. It is shorter than LAX-MEL and IAH-DXB which are routes no one thinks twice about. The problem with NBO-JFK is going to be NBO's altitude. JNB and NBO are around the same altitude(around 5400 feet up) and just as JNB has issues with long-haul routes, NBO will too. The A350 would be much better for KQ long-haul ops because of its larger wing IMHO but I would not be surprised to see a tech stop on NBO-JFK with a 788...

It would certainly be a long flight, but there could be the yields to make NBO-JFK work.

Connections on either end, UN (connecting 2 of the 4 UN HQs), business, tourism, VFR, NGO traffic etc. might be enough.

There would need to be a stop somewhere along the way...I might be tempted to say GVA. NBO-GVA-JFK connects 3 of the 4 UN headquarters. Key here, however, is that KQ would need fifth-freedom on GVA-JFK.

usflyer msp wrote:

cedarjet wrote:

I don't know if you guys realise but NBO-JFK is an incredibly long way, the Atlantic crossing itself representing slightly less than half the trip, which is 7,360 miles, just a little bit less than the Persian Gulf to Florida, Bombay to New York et al. Not saying Kenya Airways or the 787 aren't up to it, but the cost of operating will be high, it's going to burn a lot of fuel en route no matter how efficient the aircraft is, if it's flying for fifteen plus hours. I'm not sure Kenya's economy is up to it. Lots of options on KLM Lufty BA Emirates et al.

7400mi really isn't that long nowadays. It is shorter than LAX-MEL and IAH-DXB which are routes no one thinks twice about. The problem with NBO-JFK is going to be NBO's altitude. JNB and NBO are around the same altitude(around 5400 feet up) and just as JNB has issues with long-haul routes, NBO will too. The A350 would be much better for KQ long-haul ops because of its larger wing IMHO but I would not be surprised to see a tech stop on NBO-JFK with a 788...

You can't compare those two flights to NBO-JFK apples to apples. Both the flights you mentioned connect two economic powerhouses. There are tons of business connections that feed those flights. NBO just doesn't have that. Their economy isn't mature enough.

They can fly it, but I Cannot see how this could actually make money. Sure there are passengers (whats the actual o&d a day i bet its highly seasonal too) Who is actually going to pay a premium for a non-stop, a few business travelers a day, this is not a market there is a ton of business traffic.

cedarjet wrote:

I don't know if you guys realise but NBO-JFK is an incredibly long way, the Atlantic crossing itself representing slightly less than half the trip, which is 7,360 miles, just a little bit less than the Persian Gulf to Florida, Bombay to New York et al. Not saying Kenya Airways or the 787 aren't up to it, but the cost of operating will be high, it's going to burn a lot of fuel en route no matter how efficient the aircraft is, if it's flying for fifteen plus hours. I'm not sure Kenya's economy is up to it. Lots of options on KLM Lufty BA Emirates et al.

Maybe people would rather fly non-stop then have to change planes? Isn't Ethiopian's flights from JFK and IAD longer? I could be wrong.

Adding to the length is how limited your routings are over Africa you have to fly north over Egypt and the Med then depending on the winds over France or Ireland to JFK.

jeffrey1970 wrote:

cedarjet wrote:

I don't know if you guys realise but NBO-JFK is an incredibly long way, the Atlantic crossing itself representing slightly less than half the trip, which is 7,360 miles, just a little bit less than the Persian Gulf to Florida, Bombay to New York et al. Not saying Kenya Airways or the 787 aren't up to it, but the cost of operating will be high, it's going to burn a lot of fuel en route no matter how efficient the aircraft is, if it's flying for fifteen plus hours. I'm not sure Kenya's economy is up to it. Lots of options on KLM Lufty BA Emirates et al.

Maybe people would rather fly non-stop then have to change planes? Isn't Ethiopian's flights from JFK and IAD longer? I could be wrong.

Ethiopian has to fly these routes with a tech stop because of the altitude in ADD much like KQ would have to, at least in the westbound direction, or go very wieght restricted which makes even less sense. The flight could be done but I just don't think KQ even had the aircraft to spare as they leased 787's to Omanair. KQ just isn't financially well enough to make a flight like this work.

PS: Ethiopian flies to EWR not JFK.

b747400erf wrote:

Adding to the length is how limited your routings are over Africa you have to fly north over Egypt and the Med then depending on the winds over France or Ireland to JFK.

I don't think that it's that limited. GC route takes the flight right by CMN, which RAM already operates CMN-NBO right across the sahara/sahel. RAM also flies CMN-JFK straight across the Atlantic without going through Europe at all generally. Also, ET flies Lome-Newark straight across the atlantic as do many flights depending on wind/weather especially in the eastbound direction. I my self have been on flights from USA-Middle East that went pretty far south across Spain/Africa rather than the usual Europe.

ushermittwoch wrote:

Well, Kenya is a great country and KQ is a decent airline. I'm quite sure that this route wouldn't do too badly. DL has decent feed at JFK, so it might work.

No question about the first statement. However, why would DL feed KQ when it can use it TATL JV with AF/KL to AMS/CDG to then feed KL/KQ? I see little chance of that happening.

b747400erf wrote:

Adding to the length is how limited your routings are over Africa you have to fly north over Egypt and the Med then depending on the winds over France or Ireland to JFK.

They could fly westward over S. Sudan, Chad, Niger and Algeria (avoiding Libya of course) and hit the Atlantic shores of Morocco. Almost like a NBO-CMN-JFK routing. Why wouldn't that work? Still a long route but at least a more direct path.

aemoreira1981 wrote:

There would need to be a stop somewhere along the way...I might be tempted to say GVA. NBO-GVA-JFK connects 3 of the 4 UN headquarters. Key here, however, is that KQ would need fifth-freedom on GVA-JFK.

This is exactly what got KQ in trouble in the first place, things like "we will fly to every African capital by two thousand something"? WHY? Why go somewhere if there is no demand? Anyway, GVA-JFK is already served by SWISS, would KQ be able to compete against them (UA flies EWR-GVA).

I think this is a vanity route; too much competition, no enough yield, long routes, etc. It may also trigger a reaction from its competitors in terms of pricing and/or product upgrades (BA's 744s come to mind). JFK one-stop away with KL, BA, KQ+AF, EK, QR, EY. Unless there is a big demand for Kenyan flowers which would fill up cargo, hard to justify this route. Count me amongst the skeptics, 2017 is also an election year.

I applaud KQ for being bold, I hope they prove me wrong.

I really hope they don't go through with it. I could be wrong but it seems as though the 7 Dreamliners are stretched out enough. A daily Delhi trip would be far more useful, or FRA.

kq747 wrote:

b747400erf wrote:

Adding to the length is how limited your routings are over Africa you have to fly north over Egypt and the Med then depending on the winds over France or Ireland to JFK.

I don't think that it's that limited. GC route takes the flight right by CMN, which RAM already operates CMN-NBO right across the sahara/sahel. RAM also flies CMN-JFK straight across the Atlantic without going through Europe at all generally. Also, ET flies Lome-Newark straight across the atlantic as do many flights depending on wind/weather especially in the eastbound direction. I my self have been on flights from USA-Middle East that went pretty far south across Spain/Africa rather than the usual Europe.

Why would you compare a route from Western Africa to a route from Eastern Africa? The routing could fly just south of the Libyan border but you only really have 2 route choices just south of Libya or over Egypt and north of it. Coverage and emergency airports in the southerly routes are limited.

Delta Airlines with a B777-200LR (non stop) or with a B767-300ER via Dakar, is probably the strongest option. They could use Nairobi hub (Kenya Airways) to feed the route. Currently, Delta Airlines has code share on KLM East Africa destinations, as well with Air France to Central Africa.

But the problem is that US airline seem to struggle to fill planes to Africa.

At the begining, Delta planned to serve Nairobi, via Dakar, from 2008. Between 2008 and 2011, Delta planned a big expansion in Africa.

They have resumed Cairo service, now dropped. They have started Abuja-New York, Monrovia- New York, Johannesburg-Atlanta, Accra-New York, Lagos-Atlanta, Atlanta-Dakar-Cape Town

Only Johannesburg-Atlanta, Lagos-Atlanta and Accra-New York are still operating. (SAA had code share with DL, when SAA served Atlanta)

They have planned to start flights to Cabo Verde, Ecuatorial Guinea (New York-Ilha do Sal-Malabo with a B757) and Angola (Atlanta-Dakar-Luanda using an A330-200). But like for Nairobi service, they closed bookings few weeks, before the first flight.

United Airlines has dropped Accra-Washington, Lagos-Washington and Lagos-Houston. In mid 2000s, North American Airline ended services to West Africa (Gambia, Ghana, Nigeria)

rukundo wrote:

Delta Airlines with a B777-200LR (non stop) or with a B767-300ER via Dakar, is probably the strongest option. They could use Nairobi hub (Kenya Airways) to feed the route. Currently, Delta Airlines has code share on KLM East Africa destinations, as well with Air France to Central Africa.

But the problem is that US airline seem to struggle to fill planes to Africa.

At the begining, Delta planned to serve Nairobi, via Dakar, from 2008. Between 2008 and 2011, Delta planned a big expansion in Africa.

They have resumed Cairo service, now dropped. They have started Abuja-New York, Monrovia- New York, Johannesburg-Atlanta, Accra-New York, Lagos-Atlanta, Atlanta-Dakar-Cape Town

Only Johannesburg-Atlanta, Lagos-Atlanta and Accra-New York are still operating. (SAA had code share with DL, when SAA served Atlanta)

They have planned to start flights to Cabo Verde, Ecuatorial Guinea (New York-Ilha do Sal-Malabo with a B757) and Angola (Atlanta-Dakar-Luanda using an A330-200). But like for Nairobi service, they closed bookings few weeks, before the first flight.

United Airlines has dropped Accra-Washington, Lagos-Washington and Lagos-Houston. In mid 2000s, North American Airline ended services to West Africa (Gambia, Ghana, Nigeria)

I am pretty certain that DL still serves Dakar as well from JFK like 3 times a week or something like that.

rukundo wrote:

Only Johannesburg-Atlanta, Lagos-Atlanta and Accra-New York are still operating.

bfitzflyer wrote:

I am pretty certain that DL still serves Dakar as well from JFK like 3 times a week or something like that.

Yes, JFK-DKR is still operating:

http://www.delta.com/content/dam/delta- ... te-map.pdf

So DL has:

JFK-DKR
JFK-ACC
ATL-JNB
ATL-LOS

rukundo wrote:

Delta Airlines with a B777-200LR (non stop) or with a B767-300ER via Dakar, is probably the strongest option. They could use Nairobi hub (Kenya Airways) to feed the route. Currently, Delta Airlines has code share on KLM East Africa destinations, as well with Air France to Central Africa.

I don't think NBO yields could be anywhere near as strong as JNB yields. B777-200LR would be too expensive.

Does the Kenya-Nigeria bilateral allow a NBO-LOS-JFK routing? I know lots of Nigerian-Americans that are having great difficulty getting flights during peak times after the withdrawal of UA IAH-LOS and Arik's JFK-LOS. I know one girl that flew EWR-LFW on ET and then caught bus to LOS because all the flights were sold out in December...

b747400erf wrote:

kq747 wrote:

b747400erf wrote:

Adding to the length is how limited your routings are over Africa you have to fly north over Egypt and the Med then depending on the winds over France or Ireland to JFK.

I don't think that it's that limited. GC route takes the flight right by CMN, which RAM already operates CMN-NBO right across the sahara/sahel. RAM also flies CMN-JFK straight across the Atlantic without going through Europe at all generally. Also, ET flies Lome-Newark straight across the atlantic as do many flights depending on wind/weather especially in the eastbound direction. I my self have been on flights from USA-Middle East that went pretty far south across Spain/Africa rather than the usual Europe.

Why would you compare a route from Western Africa to a route from Eastern Africa? The routing could fly just south of the Libyan border but you only really have 2 route choices just south of Libya or over Egypt and north of it. Coverage and emergency airports in the southerly routes are limited.

If I read your your original post correctly, you suggested that NBO-JFK would almost have to fly Egypt/the Med/Europe. My point was that there is no need to fly through Europe for this route as flights that operate similar routes avoid Europe entirely. The reason I choose to compare to CMN-JFK is because the great circle route from NBO-JFK passes near CMN across Africa and straight out across the Atlantic avoiding Europe and also the fact that a West Africa stop (like Ethiopian through LFW) is probably the way to go rather than a fifth freedom through Europe.

Theoretically can a B787-8 with a full load even make it to JFK non stop? What if they reactivated their last remaining B777-200ER?

kq747 wrote:

b747400erf wrote:

kq747 wrote:

I don't think that it's that limited. GC route takes the flight right by CMN, which RAM already operates CMN-NBO right across the sahara/sahel. RAM also flies CMN-JFK straight across the Atlantic without going through Europe at all generally. Also, ET flies Lome-Newark straight across the atlantic as do many flights depending on wind/weather especially in the eastbound direction. I my self have been on flights from USA-Middle East that went pretty far south across Spain/Africa rather than the usual Europe.

Why would you compare a route from Western Africa to a route from Eastern Africa? The routing could fly just south of the Libyan border but you only really have 2 route choices just south of Libya or over Egypt and north of it. Coverage and emergency airports in the southerly routes are limited.

If I read your your original post correctly, you suggested that NBO-JFK would almost have to fly Egypt/the Med/Europe. My point was that there is no need to fly through Europe for this route as flights that operate similar routes avoid Europe entirely. The reason I choose to compare to CMN-JFK is because the great circle route from NBO-JFK passes near CMN across Africa and straight out across the Atlantic avoiding Europe and also the fact that a West Africa stop (like Ethiopian through LFW) is probably the way to go rather than a fifth freedom through Europe.

No airplane is flying a great circle route. That is only good for measuring basic rough distance of a flight. There are so many factors involved in planning.

NichCage wrote:

NBO-JFK would be a long flight, but it is for sure possible.

Would NBO-IAD also be a market Kenya Airways would want to launch? I've heard that there is good demand between NBO and IAD, and in general IAD and Africa. Ethiopian Airlines flies between ADD and IAD, so Kenya must be a connecting market for them.

Round Trip Market demand in 2016 was as follows:

*Figures below include JFK+EWR

LOS 124,000
ACC 65,000
NBO 39,000
ABV 21,000
ADD 15,000
EBB 12,000
DAR 9,000

Firstly the flying time nonstop between NBO-JFK is 15 hours approximately and the B787-8 cannot operate such an ultra long haul route nonstop departing out of NBO airport. It can do it JFK-NBO nonstop but not NBO-JFK. In addition the base load P2P market demand between East Africa and NYC is very low and it is highly advisable for KQ to consider flying either via ACC or LOS to JFK.

Via LOS is better as with W3 suspending all flights, they have a better chance of getting good 5th freedom loads on LOS-JFK-LOS year round along with cargo.

Via ACC they would have to compete against DL but the main advantage to stop at ACC for KQ is that via ACC they can connect JFK pax to FNA and ROB. The ideal scenario if I was planning it for KQ would be as follows:

1. Approach Sky Team partner DL to suspend flying JFK-ACC-JFK which it currently does 4 times per week using a B763ER.
2. Inform DL that they will instead fly NBO-ACC-JFK 4 times per week using a B788 and would code share or engage in a JV
3. This will give KQ monopoly on ACC-JFK which has good P2P market demand but also will guarantee feed from DL + feeder support from ROB and FNA (combined total 19,000 pax demand)
4. KQ should have 5th freedom rights on USA-ACC-USA as it has open skies with Ghana and USA each respectively plus Ghana CAA want another carrier to fly ACC-JFK nonstop

Though LOS market demand looks more promising in terms of volume and monopoly, the main issue is the Nigerian currency and state of the economy there which is detrimental for any international airline wanting to boost frequencies.

But the above is more or less fantasy because in a real life situation, operating to JFK for KQ is nothing short of financial suicide especially when it is involved in a radical cost saving turn around to reduce losses. This route alone will easily stand to lose over US$30 million annually and also the market needs 6 months advance notice to build up sales. KQ should not look at JFK until IATA Summer 2018 earliest as it first needs to put its house in order.

b747400erf wrote:

kq747 wrote:

b747400erf wrote:

Why would you compare a route from Western Africa to a route from Eastern Africa? The routing could fly just south of the Libyan border but you only really have 2 route choices just south of Libya or over Egypt and north of it. Coverage and emergency airports in the southerly routes are limited.

No airplane is flying a great circle route. That is only good for measuring basic rough distance of a flight. There are so many factors involved in planning.

Not entirely true, the example of RAM's flight to both JFK and NBO are mentioned specifically to prove that a potential NBO-JFK route following the gc route already exists. AT's flights come very close to the gc route though not completely of course. And yet this is the shortest proven route for KQ out of NBO as others have highlighted RAM is basically already flying JFK-CMN-NBO almost following the GC map route. Yes indeed there are factors that have to be considered especially over flying some countries or better yet avoiding some air spaces in Africa eg. Libya. the example of Ram is just to indicate that the route is a proven route that is already in practice and would be the shortest distance for KQ to potentially run. I know we're discussing KQ specifically in this thread but how about they code share on AT's JFK flight to start off with, they already code share on CMN-NBO

Avionics09 wrote:

b747400erf wrote:

kq747 wrote:

No airplane is flying a great circle route. That is only good for measuring basic rough distance of a flight. There are so many factors involved in planning.

Not entirely true, the example of RAM's flight to both JFK and NBO are mentioned specifically to prove that a potential NBO-JFK route following the gc route already exists. AT's flights come very close to the gc route though not completely of course. And yet this is the shortest proven route for KQ out of NBO as others have highlighted RAM is basically already flying JFK-CMN-NBO almost following the GC map route. Yes indeed there are factors that have to be considered especially over flying some countries or better yet avoiding some air spaces in Africa eg. Libya. the example of Ram is just to indicate that the route is a proven route that is already in practice and would be the shortest distance for KQ to potentially run. I know we're discussing KQ specifically in this thread but how about they code share on AT's JFK flight to start off with, they already code share on CMN-NBO

Thank you for you post and screenshot. I was just about to write the same thing when I saw the previous reply

@b747400erf: I am very much aware that many factors go into route planning but airlines do try to fly the GC route if the winds allow for it. Clearly from the RAM flights, generally it's works out to be a good routing without the need to detour over Europe as you suggested.

Excellent analyses behramjee as often, thank you very much for your output here and usually on other (African at least) topics!

Yes, as I said on the previous thread about DL to start flight to Kenya, through LOS makes perfect sense, but Nigeria Gov would likely put some hurdles to slow down KQ in their process, until they find a suitable option among national carriers to operate on the transatlantic route..

behramjee wrote:

But the above is more or less fantasy because in a real life situation, operating to JFK for KQ is nothing short of financial suicide especially when it is involved in a radical cost saving turn around to reduce losses. This route alone will easily stand to lose over US$30 million annually and also the market needs 6 months advance notice to build up sales. KQ should not look at JFK until IATA Summer 2018 earliest as it first needs to put its house in order.

Can not agree more, As soon as I read in the article The Cabinet secretary said airlines running through Nairobi would also enjoy increased traffic as more people from African countries heading to the US or coming home would prefer using Nairobi, shortening the Kenya-US journey from 19 hours via Amsterdam to nine hours., I've not stopped giving more credit to the rest. Hopefully - for the moment - it's just a wild dream from Kenyans.

I think that the assumption that JFK-NBO would be low yielding is unfounded. While NBO is not a financial capital, both NYC and NBO are some of the largest NGO capitals of their respective regions. While the for profit sector has gotten much more stingy with travel policies, the United Nations guarantees all employees Business Class on routes longer than 9 hours -- and this route surely meets that standard. I would anticipate it being rather difficult to get a Business Class seat on this flight, and KQ will have customers for these seats whom are not at all price sensative.

jfkgig wrote:

I think that the assumption that JFK-NBO would be low yielding is unfounded. While NBO is not a financial capital, both NYC and NBO are some of the largest NGO capitals of their respective regions. While the for profit sector has gotten much more stingy with travel policies, the United Nations guarantees all employees Business Class on routes longer than 9 hours -- and this route surely meets that standard. I would anticipate it being rather difficult to get a Business Class seat on this flight, and KQ will have customers for these seats whom are not at all price sensative.

I am not sure KQ wants to get into a price war with the other players. That is what would have to happen if KQ is going to fill the Business Class with UN staff. Again, I am not convince this will work. Even if KQ has good loads, it does not mean it will have good yield. Prove me wrong, KQ!

jfkgig wrote:

I think that the assumption that JFK-NBO would be low yielding is unfounded. While NBO is not a financial capital, both NYC and NBO are some of the largest NGO capitals of their respective regions. While the for profit sector has gotten much more stingy with travel policies, the United Nations guarantees all employees Business Class on routes longer than 9 hours -- and this route surely meets that standard. I would anticipate it being rather difficult to get a Business Class seat on this flight, and KQ will have customers for these seats whom are not at all price sensative.

My observation with those NGO and UN staffers who don't pay out of their pocket is that they want their comfort, mileage and first world treatment they'd get on the likes of SWISS, KLM and Lufthansa, and would rather not fly Kenya Airways even if it means getting a nonstop and/or direct service. And given that KQ will be unlikely to operate nonstop both ways, the justification to fly via a European country where they can get best treatments in terms of lounges and whatnot will be easy.

4. KQ should have 5th freedom rights on USA-ACC-USA as it has open skies with Ghana and USA each respectively plus Ghana CAA want another carrier to fly ACC-JFK nonstop

It seems that RwandAir plans also to serve JFK via ACC

I am pretty certain that DL still serves Dakar as well from JFK like 3 times a week or something like that.

In deed, thanks for the correction

Round Trip Market demand in 2016 was as follows:

*Figures below include JFK+EWR

LOS 124,000
ACC 65,000
NBO 39,000
ABV 21,000
ADD 15,000
EBB 12,000
DAR 9,000

Do you have it for Kigali ? Thanks