WN Schedule Release 3/16/17 Predictions

wnflyguy · Tue Mar 14, 2017 4:07 pm

From what I've been told After the RES Server Meltdown last year ONE RES timeline got pushed up drastically. Dispatch, Flight/Inflight Ops and Ops Otis system coming in 2018/19. So no Red Eyes until then.

Flyguy

cvgComair · Tue Mar 14, 2017 4:51 pm

cledaybuck wrote:
Disagree. I don't see DAL, HOU, or BOS being added anytime soon. I think any adds in the next few years will be to Florida or places like STL, PHX, LAS, DEN.

I don't think you will see LAS or DEN anytime soon. DEN is a 4-way race between G4/F9/DL/UA, plus all of those carriers operate mainline on the route. Similar story with LAS, it's a 3 way race with DL/G4/F9, giving 3-4 daily flights, all mainline. I think PHX is a no brainer for WN.

CVG is probably not going to look like CMH/IND/SDF/CLE/PIT becuase we still have a US3 carrier that maintains a majority share of the market (and based on their actions the last 2-3 years, they have no immediate plans to let go of this position). Routes like BOS/HOU/STL/BNA/MCI do not have any (or very minimal) LCC competition, so they would be the best chances for WN to expand. (Not having DAL makes sense becuase of gate space.)

The thing with Florida, which you need to keep in mind, is that it's not just LCC's on CVG-Florida, DL is a big player in the market and frequently price matches. They also will be more than happy to add more Florida traffic to combat WN. For instance, during this upcoming "winter break period", DL will have 3x/day to RSW, 3x/day to MCO, 2x/day to RSW and 2x/day to TPA, all mainline (mix of MD, 738, and A321). Granted this is not the schedule year round, but if WN were to enter CVG-Florida, I bet DL would respond by making this the normal schedule.

enilria · Tue Mar 14, 2017 5:16 pm

wnflyguy wrote:
From what I've been told After the RES Server Meltdown last year ONE RES timeline got pushed up drastically. Dispatch, Flight/Inflight Ops and Ops Otis system coming in 2018/19. So no Red Eyes until then.

Flyguy

Let me make sure I understand that. You confused me with the term "ONE RES". The Ops system is completely separate from the RES cutover. They have nothing to do with each other than they exchange some data such as passenger load. You are saying that the Otis replacement allowing red-eyes was delayed or made sooner?

BTW, so OTIS is the name of the ops system? Looks like it went live in 1999. https://www.swamedia.com/pages/1998-to-2000

You know what's odd? You'd think that when this software was fresh and new in 1999 they would have had the functionality to do red-eyes. It's not that long ago. Why not build it with the ability to do it if needed? Supposedly they have the ability to do seat assignments in the legacy RES system, but never used it. Seems like a hodge-podge of conflicting IT decisions.

roadpilot · Tue Mar 14, 2017 5:25 pm

airplaneboy wrote:
I think this is spot on. Unless there are more used -700 frames coming online that we aren't aware of, these would be the only options they have to move flying around/add frequency in shorter haul markets.

One thing I've never understood is why they haven't looked at sourcing used -800 frames. Last year when Air Berlin and Gol were shedding aircraft would have been a perfect time to snap up af few frames. I know they have 150+ MAX8s coming but 10-20 used -800s could have eased the capacity crunch they are looking at

wnflyguy · Tue Mar 14, 2017 5:49 pm

enilria wrote:
wnflyguy wrote:
From what I've been told After the RES Server Meltdown last year ONE RES timeline got pushed up drastically. Dispatch, Flight/Inflight Ops and Ops Otis system coming in 2018/19. So no Red Eyes until then.

Flyguy

Let me make sure I understand that. You confused me with the term "ONE RES". The Ops system is completely separate from the RES cutover. They have nothing to do with each other than they exchange some data such as passenger load. You are saying that the Otis replacement allowing red-eyes was delayed or made sooner?

BTW, so OTIS is the name of the ops system? Looks like it went live in 1999. https://www.swamedia.com/pages/1998-to-2000

You know what's odd? You'd think that when this software was fresh and new in 1999 they would have had the functionality to do red-eyes. It's not that long ago. Why not build it with the ability to do it if needed? Supposedly they have the ability to do seat assignments in the legacy RES system, but never used it. Seems like a hodge-podge of conflicting IT decisions.

Because back then it was still the KISS style WN.
HERB and fellow leaders while great at running the most successful low cost airline they FAILED at advancing the technology in many aspects. They patch worked VS spending the money on better service.
Under GK leadership the technology finally ran its course and FL wasn't any better so WN finally HAD to buy a new product. By 2019 WN should be using a updated system.
I'm sure once the May 9 switch over is completed the other department with transition quickly.
Flyguy

Noreastshuttle · Tue Mar 14, 2017 6:46 pm

ucdtim17 wrote:
phluser wrote:
msycajun wrote:
I wonder if there will be any response to the recent AS/VX Bay Area adds. I bet that played into AS's unusual timing, knowing that WN would have a limited ability to launch new routes in the fall.

I wonder if WN would switch BWI-OAK to BWI-SFO now that AS is challenging WN long hauls ex BWI and with that route. It seems sensible even if AS didn't add it. When one most people think of traveling to the Bay Area from the East Coast, it's to SFO. Put in ROC or PWM to SFO on southwest.com and one gets a complicated 3 or 4 stop itinery, when there is a nonstop BWI flight to OAK where it would otherwise be a doable one stop connection.

And when most people think of flying to the mid-atlantic from the west coast, it's to Dulles or National. Maybe they should switch the OAK-BWI flight to OAK-IAD or OAK-DCA.

Southwest flies between OAK and BWI because they are two large stations for Southwest. It must be relatively successful - they're going double daily this summer.

Ummm I think i get what you meant by that, but i may challenge you on that... considering BWI has the highest passenger boardings / O&D in the Baltimore/Washington region (IAD,DCA,BWI). I think BWI-SFO would be a great compliment. WN does OAK and SJC nonstops already. But they may not want to cannibalize themselves either for AAG response where more coveted market like BWI - SAN may likely have precedent.

cledaybuck · Tue Mar 14, 2017 6:52 pm

cvgComair wrote:
cledaybuck wrote:
Disagree. I don't see DAL, HOU, or BOS being added anytime soon. I think any adds in the next few years will be to Florida or places like STL, PHX, LAS, DEN.

I don't think you will see LAS or DEN anytime soon. DEN is a 4-way race between G4/F9/DL/UA, plus all of those carriers operate mainline on the route. Similar story with LAS, it's a 3 way race with DL/G4/F9, giving 3-4 daily flights, all mainline. I think PHX is a no brainer for WN.

CVG is probably not going to look like CMH/IND/SDF/CLE/PIT becuase we still have a US3 carrier that maintains a majority share of the market (and based on their actions the last 2-3 years, they have no immediate plans to let go of this position). Routes like BOS/HOU/STL/BNA/MCI do not have any (or very minimal) LCC competition, so they would be the best chances for WN to expand. (Not having DAL makes sense becuase of gate space.)

The thing with Florida, which you need to keep in mind, is that it's not just LCC's on CVG-Florida, DL is a big player in the market and frequently price matches. They also will be more than happy to add more Florida traffic to combat WN. For instance, during this upcoming "winter break period", DL will have 3x/day to RSW, 3x/day to MCO, 2x/day to RSW and 2x/day to TPA, all mainline (mix of MD, 738, and A321). Granted this is not the schedule year round, but if WN were to enter CVG-Florida, I bet DL would respond by making this the normal schedule.

Because of the DL presence, I think CVG will look most like CLE, with service to key WN cities (BWI, MDW, STL, ATL, BNA, DEN, LAS, PHX). I think BNA is too close to CVG and I don't think WN would want to fight DL on ATL, hence my list. I think HOU depends on how much WN wants to build their international operation at HOU more than anything at CVG, but I could see cities like CLE, CMH and CVG being added if they want to build up HOU. With BOS, DL is strong on both ends of this route and WN isn't that strong on either, hence why I don't think they will be trying it anytime soon. MCI feels like an either or with STL to me. JMO.

ucdtim17 · Tue Mar 14, 2017 7:14 pm

Noreastshuttle wrote:
ucdtim17 wrote:
phluser wrote:

I wonder if WN would switch BWI-OAK to BWI-SFO now that AS is challenging WN long hauls ex BWI and with that route. It seems sensible even if AS didn't add it. When one most people think of traveling to the Bay Area from the East Coast, it's to SFO. Put in ROC or PWM to SFO on southwest.com and one gets a complicated 3 or 4 stop itinery, when there is a nonstop BWI flight to OAK where it would otherwise be a doable one stop connection.

And when most people think of flying to the mid-atlantic from the west coast, it's to Dulles or National. Maybe they should switch the OAK-BWI flight to OAK-IAD or OAK-DCA.

Southwest flies between OAK and BWI because they are two large stations for Southwest. It must be relatively successful - they're going double daily this summer.

Ummm I think i get what you meant by that, but i may challenge you on that... considering BWI has the highest passenger boardings / O&D in the Baltimore/Washington region (IAD,DCA,BWI). I think BWI-SFO would be a great compliment. WN does OAK and SJC nonstops already. But they may not want to cannibalize themselves either for AAG response where more coveted market like BWI - SAN may likely have precedent.

As mentioned above, BWI is biggest, but only because there are two DC airports. Anyways, yes if WN keeps adding transcons from BWI, SFO may make sense at some point, but then they're going to be competing directly with UA and AS. As of now it makes sense to stick to OAK and SJC.

enilria · Tue Mar 14, 2017 8:20 pm

wnflyguy wrote:
enilria wrote:
wnflyguy wrote:
From what I've been told After the RES Server Meltdown last year ONE RES timeline got pushed up drastically. Dispatch, Flight/Inflight Ops and Ops Otis system coming in 2018/19. So no Red Eyes until then.

Flyguy

Let me make sure I understand that. You confused me with the term "ONE RES". The Ops system is completely separate from the RES cutover. They have nothing to do with each other than they exchange some data such as passenger load. You are saying that the Otis replacement allowing red-eyes was delayed or made sooner?

BTW, so OTIS is the name of the ops system? Looks like it went live in 1999. https://www.swamedia.com/pages/1998-to-2000

You know what's odd? You'd think that when this software was fresh and new in 1999 they would have had the functionality to do red-eyes. It's not that long ago. Why not build it with the ability to do it if needed? Supposedly they have the ability to do seat assignments in the legacy RES system, but never used it. Seems like a hodge-podge of conflicting IT decisions.

Because back then it was still the KISS style WN.
HERB and fellow leaders while great at running the most successful low cost airline they FAILED at advancing the technology in many aspects. They patch worked VS spending the money on better service.
Under GK leadership the technology finally ran its course and FL wasn't any better so WN finally HAD to buy a new product. By 2019 WN should be using a updated system.
I'm sure once the May 9 switch over is completed the other department with transition quickly.
Flyguy

Here's to hoping the transition is smoother than I fear!

barney captain · Tue Mar 14, 2017 8:58 pm

It's crazy to think that it's 2017 and they still don't have software that can support red eye operations. Isn't it also in the pilot contract that they won't fly red eyes? I just can't believe that there isn't another reason other than computer software that's stopping them from red eyes.

There has been language in the contract for a number of years that allows redeye flying.

wwtraveler99 · Tue Mar 14, 2017 10:02 pm

enilria wrote:
msycajun wrote:
roadpilot wrote:
I wonder if this schedule period would be the right time to test the waters with red-eyes. Like enilira stated, transcons take up alot of aircraft time, running red-eyes would let them stay in the transcon market while giving them the flexibility to find more profitable daytime flying

I was wondering the same thing myself. If you look at other airlines like UA, roughly a third of the transcon flights are red eyes. WN could easily free up a plane or two's worth of flying by making one of the SAN/OAK/LAX-BWI flights a red eye. Even more if you look at flights into EWR, MCO, and ATL and out of LAS.

Between that, rearranging some maintenance, and extending utilization, plus the usual seasonal reductions, WN should be able to avoid major cuts.

According to some good sources, one of the problems with red-eyes is that their ops system software (dispatch, weight/balance, etc) can't support an operation that has planes in the air 24 hours per day. I'm told there is not a date to replace that software. It is not part of the RES system upgrade. If anybody has newer information, please post. If it weren't for that I would agree red-eyes would be a way to solve their airplane shortage.[/quote/]

I have heard similar. Although I have not heard any exact dates I am hearing red-eyes should be coming middle of 2018. I am guessing that would mean summer. But again nothing firm.

Ww

Mexicana757 · Tue Mar 14, 2017 10:17 pm

wnflyguy wrote:
My own predictions.
MEX-HOU slot awards added with the old 23:30/05:30 MEX-HOU slot being used to add either MEX-MDW or MEX-BWI.

GSP and FNT will be down to 2 flights A day and 1 on Sat/Sun.

PNS-BNA down to 1 daily but add 1 PNS-MDW daily.

Flyguy

I hope they do add MDW-MEX. WN hasn't opened any new international destinations out of MDW since 2013.

jb1087xna · Tue Mar 14, 2017 11:48 pm

Can't imagine that LIT will change a thing based on the last year's trend. They got STL added back but other than that, everything else seems to be stagnant. DL mainline has been steadily gaining share of traffic over the last 2-3 years and I imagine if they tried to invest in price, they could knock WN off of the #1 spot at LIT, barring the fact that WN has nonstops to relevant airports that DL doesn't (STL, DAL, LAS).

rockyracoon · Wed Mar 15, 2017 2:45 am

cvgComair wrote:
CVG is probably not going to look like CMH/IND/SDF/CLE/PIT becuase we still have a US3 carrier that maintains a majority share of the market (and based on their actions the last 2-3 years, they have no immediate plans to let go of this position). Routes like BOS/HOU/STL/BNA/MCI do not have any (or very minimal) LCC competition, so they would be the best chances for WN to expand. (Not having DAL makes sense becuase of gate space.)

cvgComair wrote:
I don't think you will see LAS or DEN anytime soon. DEN is a 4-way race between G4/F9/DL/UA, plus all of those carriers operate mainline on the route. Similar story with LAS, it's a 3 way race with DL/G4/F9, giving 3-4 daily flights, all mainline. I think PHX is a no brainer for WN.

Yep

cledaybuck wrote:
Why? CLE has 8 WN destinations, none of which are HOU or DAL. CMH has 17 WN destinations, but HOU is not one of them. I think the gate situation at DAL makes adds difficult, and I just don't see CVG being a priority.

I didn't know about the gate situation at DAL. If so, perhaps all the more reason to add HOU. CMH is served by DAL, and, except for CLE, all Midwestern cities offer service to at least one of HOU/DAL. Most have service to both. So, CLE is more of the outlier.

cledaybuck wrote:
I think HOU depends on how much WN wants to build their international operation at HOU more than anything at CVG

I think most of the CVG connecting traffic would be going international out of HOU, which is a potentially lucrative market in revenue and also in building customer loyalty. WN's other hubs offer better connecting flows for most CVG traffic.

cledaybuck · Wed Mar 15, 2017 1:44 pm

rockyracoon wrote:
cvgComair wrote:
CVG is probably not going to look like CMH/IND/SDF/CLE/PIT becuase we still have a US3 carrier that maintains a majority share of the market (and based on their actions the last 2-3 years, they have no immediate plans to let go of this position). Routes like BOS/HOU/STL/BNA/MCI do not have any (or very minimal) LCC competition, so they would be the best chances for WN to expand. (Not having DAL makes sense becuase of gate space.)

cvgComair wrote:
I don't think you will see LAS or DEN anytime soon. DEN is a 4-way race between G4/F9/DL/UA, plus all of those carriers operate mainline on the route. Similar story with LAS, it's a 3 way race with DL/G4/F9, giving 3-4 daily flights, all mainline. I think PHX is a no brainer for WN.

Yep

I don't see a single Midwest market that has HOU or DAL and not LAS or DEN. I just think those are higher priority "hubs" for WN. If WN wants into CVG-DEN/LAS those competitors won't scare them off. WN should have an advantage over every one except UA/DEN.

rockyracoon wrote:
I didn't know about the gate situation at DAL. If so, perhaps all the more reason to add HOU. CMH is served by DAL, and, except for CLE, all Midwestern cities offer service to at least one of HOU/DAL. Most have service to both. So, CLE is more of the outlier.

The following don't have service to HOU or DAL: CLE, MSP, GRR, FNT, DSM, ICT, SDF (I realize SDF is not "Midwestern" in the strictest definition, but I think it certainly applies when comparing to CVG). DTW, CMH, and MKE only have service to DAL. IND, STL, MCI, OMA, MDW, PIT have service to both. All of these are bigger WN cities than I expect CVG to be barring a DL pull down.

MaverickTTT · Wed Mar 15, 2017 2:29 pm

wwtraveler99 wrote:
enilria wrote:
msycajun wrote:

I was wondering the same thing myself. If you look at other airlines like UA, roughly a third of the transcon flights are red eyes. WN could easily free up a plane or two's worth of flying by making one of the SAN/OAK/LAX-BWI flights a red eye. Even more if you look at flights into EWR, MCO, and ATL and out of LAS.

Between that, rearranging some maintenance, and extending utilization, plus the usual seasonal reductions, WN should be able to avoid major cuts.

According to some good sources, one of the problems with red-eyes is that their ops system software (dispatch, weight/balance, etc) can't support an operation that has planes in the air 24 hours per day. I'm told there is not a date to replace that software. It is not part of the RES system upgrade. If anybody has newer information, please post. If it weren't for that I would agree red-eyes would be a way to solve their airplane shortage.[/quote/]

I have heard similar. Although I have not heard any exact dates I am hearing red-eyes should be coming middle of 2018. I am guessing that would mean summer. But again nothing firm.

Ww

Dispatch software is the issue. A total replacement project is in early stages (RFI and product selection) and should include crew scheduling software replacement, as well. I'm told the goal date for deployment is 2020, but that is ambitious.

That said, there is, allegedly, a workaround in the works to make red-eye flights work within the current system. It would likely involve a manual process/policy change (i.e., keeping yesterday's operation open in the system until the last red-eye lands) rather than a programming change to the actual software.

blhp68 · Wed Mar 15, 2017 5:28 pm

Closing the loop on the MCI speculation with this WN release as AS announced new flights (today, 3/15) between MCI-SAN (which is what the twitter tease was in reference to.)

jco613 · Wed Mar 15, 2017 6:33 pm

MaverickTTT wrote:
wwtraveler99 wrote:
enilria wrote:

According to some good sources, one of the problems with red-eyes is that their ops system software (dispatch, weight/balance, etc) can't support an operation that has planes in the air 24 hours per day. I'm told there is not a date to replace that software. It is not part of the RES system upgrade. If anybody has newer information, please post. If it weren't for that I would agree red-eyes would be a way to solve their airplane shortage.[/quote/]

I have heard similar. Although I have not heard any exact dates I am hearing red-eyes should be coming middle of 2018. I am guessing that would mean summer. But again nothing firm.

Ww

Dispatch software is the issue. A total replacement project is in early stages (RFI and product selection) and should include crew scheduling software replacement, as well. I'm told the goal date for deployment is 2020, but that is ambitious.

That said, there is, allegedly, a workaround in the works to make red-eye flights work within the current system. It would likely involve a manual process/policy change (i.e., keeping yesterday's operation open in the system until the last red-eye lands) rather than a programming change to the actual software.

RE: Workaround...so pretty much the flight would have to land before 05:00 ET and if a flight got delayed, the entire system would have to hold until it lands?

They must do something similar now for those severely delayed flights.

vulindlela744 · Wed Mar 15, 2017 8:31 pm

I can guarantee you WN is not starting Hawai'i soon or any time in the near future. I'd venture to say you'll NEVER see a SW plane in Hawai'i.

MaverickTTT · Thu Mar 16, 2017 2:09 am

jco613 wrote:
RE: Workaround...so pretty much the flight would have to land before 05:00 ET and if a flight got delayed, the entire system would have to hold until it lands?

They must do something similar now for those severely delayed flights.

I have no idea what the workaround would be...only that one may be in the works.

vulindlela744 wrote:
I can guarantee you WN is not starting Hawai'i soon or any time in the near future. I'd venture to say you'll NEVER see a SW plane in Hawai'i.

I'll take that bet. I'd put money on an ETOPS program up and running by 2019.

As far as my schedule predictions, I'm betting the farm on 12 new routes out of CVG....because throwing crap at the wall and seeing what sticks in these threads is fun.

737max8 · Thu Mar 16, 2017 2:38 am

I think you'll see WN in Hawaii, everyone is asking (WN flyers and employees). But yeah, I think it's a few years away also. Priorities........

Can't wait to buy a ticket for a MAX flight tomorrow.

rj777 · Thu Mar 16, 2017 2:44 am

I'm hoping something new gets added for MKE.....

southwest1675 · Thu Mar 16, 2017 2:50 am

rj777 wrote:
I'm hoping something new gets added for MKE.....

MKE-BNA would be nice.

Jshank83 · Thu Mar 16, 2017 3:02 am

Okay everyone. It is about that time, so I'll throw out my predictions sure to be wrong.

I think this update is all about reducing planes/adding MAX, seeing that last year there wasn't an update for this short a segment. I think it will be treated as a continuation of the last update, edited for the plane crunch.

Soo.. I think the new station pair routes added will be very limited, if any new ones are added at all (not counting normal seasonal routes). I think they will cut down on some of the longer routes with lower loads and fly some shorter segments. I also think those shorter segments will be routed through "focus cities" to try to maximize loads.

I do not think there will be any station closings.

I know those aren't fun or anything but I think this one will be pretty boring. I also think any routes that get taken away probably have a good chance to come back when they get the aircraft count back up. So I won't freak out over any routes that get cut.

I will make a home airport new service prediction, because those are the most fun to see. STL-CUN. I still only put it at 25% but no other stations I feel like are really needed from STL. Unless you are going to route BHM or SDF though it or something. I don't think fall/winter is the time to make CHS daily.

What are your last predictions before this comes out?

alggag · Thu Mar 16, 2017 3:34 am

737max8 wrote:
Can't wait to buy a ticket for a MAX flight tomorrow.

I intend to redeem some points for a booking for a flight in October and am hoping that maybe I'll get lucky at it will be operated with a MAX but I'm sure it will end up being just a 73G coming and going. :embarrassed2:

alggag · Thu Mar 16, 2017 10:35 am

The schedule has been posted, and CRP, AMA, FNT, GSP, DSM, PNS, ECP, LBB, and ROC are still alive. I can't remember what other stations have been thrown around as being on the bubble so those are the only ones I checked, All 3 Cuba destinations remain as well.

737-8 MAX is definitely there as well.

Midwestindy · Thu Mar 16, 2017 10:42 am

alggag wrote:
The schedule has been posted, and CRP, AMA, FNT, GSP, DSM, PNS, ECP, LBB, and ROC are still alive. I can't remember what other stations have been thrown around as being on the bubble so those are the only ones I checked, All 3 Cuba destinations remain as well.

737-8 MAX is definitely there as well.

please post the schedule on this forum

alggag · Thu Mar 16, 2017 10:49 am

Midwestindy wrote:
alggag wrote:
The schedule has been posted, and CRP, AMA, FNT, GSP, DSM, PNS, ECP, LBB, and ROC are still alive. I can't remember what other stations have been thrown around as being on the bubble so those are the only ones I checked, All 3 Cuba destinations remain as well.

737-8 MAX is definitely there as well.

please post the schedule on this forum

This early there's nothing to post, you just have to go to their website and start making dummy bookings for October to see what's there. Later on in they afternoon they usually post a PDF detailing all the changes but until then just have to search it manually.

tomaheath · Thu Mar 16, 2017 10:52 am

How can you tell witch type of aircraft is being used?

alggag · Thu Mar 16, 2017 10:54 am

tomaheath wrote:
How can you tell witch type of aircraft is being used?

Click on the flight number and it will pop up a window.

knope2001 · Thu Mar 16, 2017 11:39 am

MKE looks essentially normal for fall -- all markets remain.

What I have noticed is some day-of-week variation, such as some days I'm finding 4x MKE-DEN but other days 3x. Assuming it's not an oddity with the load perhaps some day-of-week adjustment are being used to bridge fleet gaps.

crazytoaster · Thu Mar 16, 2017 11:50 am

I don't see any new route additions for the cities I usually check. Nothing new for IND and CVG.

I did find a MAX 8 route LAX-MDW.

alggag · Thu Mar 16, 2017 12:05 pm

crazytoaster wrote:
I don't see any new route additions for the cities I usually check. Nothing new for IND and CVG.

I did find a MAX 8 route LAX-MDW.

MAX8 also spotted on HOU-MDW-HOU, HOU-DAL-HOU, and STL-HOU runs. Much to my delight it's listed as operating the second leg of a flight I booked this morning (MDW-HOU). :spin:

For all the talk of there being a massive cull on this release things to seem to be fairly status quo. I'm sure there's an overall net reduction but I'm not really seeing the giant cuts that were predicted.

SteveXC500 · Thu Mar 16, 2017 12:23 pm

No changes to MSP from what I can tell.
8x MDW
5x DEN
3x STL
2x MKE, PHX, MCI, ATL, BWI
1x BNA

Still no LAS return or DAL add

dbo861 · Thu Mar 16, 2017 12:33 pm

alggag wrote:
The schedule has been posted, and CRP, AMA, FNT, GSP, DSM, PNS, ECP, LBB, and ROC are still alive. I can't remember what other stations have been thrown around as being on the bubble so those are the only ones I checked, All 3 Cuba destinations remain as well.

737-8 MAX is definitely there as well.

So can we stop that nonsense that the handful of cities listed above are on the verge of getting shutdown? If they survived the fleet reduction during one of the slowest travel times of the year, I think it's pretty safe to say they'll be around for awhile.

RL757PVD · Thu Mar 16, 2017 12:54 pm

The non-BOS New England looks mostly intact

PVD (20) BWI 9x MDW 3x MCO 3x DCA 2x TPA 2x FLL1x
BDL (16) BWI 7x MDW 3x MCO 2x DEN 1x LAS 1x FLL 1x TPA 1x
MHT (14) BWI 8x MDW 3x MCO 2x TPA 1x

ERJ170 · Thu Mar 16, 2017 12:57 pm

Didn't see anything new for RDU (no surprise there) and didn't realize it was so 73G heavy... I guess no Max in RDU in the immediate or long term view...

Jshank83 · Thu Mar 16, 2017 12:57 pm

I didn't see anything that big looking through it besides some seasonal stuff, STL-CHS ends, but I expected that. It was weekends only. I would expect some others like that got cut also for fall/winter also.

joeljack · Thu Mar 16, 2017 1:03 pm

No changes to Omaha or Des Moines from October 2016. (Except the added Houston flight).

Schedule seems to start earlier in the day. They kept the typically summer only 5am flights that usually push back to 6am in the fall. They can get lots of extra flying this way with less aircraft. That coupled with not doing scheduled maintenance and paint jobs for a few month and it all works pretty well.

737max8 · Thu Mar 16, 2017 1:20 pm

As expected, most MAX flying I have found is between major MX and flying hubs. Just a few line passes.

msycajun · Thu Mar 16, 2017 2:42 pm

MSY stays pretty much the same, expect losing one of the flights to FLL, MCO, and STL. FLL is a bloodbath between WN, NK, and B6 and NK is adding MCO this summer. We do still have the Sunday flights to PIT, CMH, and RDU, but not IND and the 2nd daily AUS flight stays.

enilria · Thu Mar 16, 2017 2:46 pm

joeljack wrote:
No changes to Omaha or Des Moines from October 2016. (Except the added Houston flight).

Schedule seems to start earlier in the day. They kept the typically summer only 5am flights that usually push back to 6am in the fall. They can get lots of extra flying this way with less aircraft. That coupled with not doing scheduled maintenance and paint jobs for a few month and it all works pretty well.

It appears then they solved the aircraft shortfall by flying the extended day Summer schedule. I don't think that will be revenue optimal, but I agree it was the least disruptive to their market share. I guess they figure they can suffer through some peripheral departure/arrival times for a few months and the improved utilization will help with the revenue impact. That was always their second option.

FlyPNS1 · Thu Mar 16, 2017 3:42 pm

enilria wrote:
It appears then they solved the aircraft shortfall by flying the extended day Summer schedule. I don't think that will be revenue optimal, but I agree it was the least disruptive to their market share. I guess they figure they can suffer through some peripheral departure/arrival times for a few months and the improved utilization will help with the revenue impact. That was always their second option.

What about all the shocking and dramatic cuts you predicted WN had to make??

TWA302 · Thu Mar 16, 2017 3:47 pm

Jshank83 wrote:
I will make a home airport new service prediction, because those are the most fun to see. STL-CUN. I still only put it at 25% but no other stations I feel like are really needed from STL. Unless you are going to route BHM or SDF though it or something. I don't think fall/winter is the time to make CHS daily.

What are your last predictions before this comes out?

I would rather see SJD from STL. Won't happen but it would be nice for sure. I would assume CUN will happen, just not sure today. F9 and Xtra do that CUN thing, but I know WN could put a HUGE dent in their business with it.

TWA302 · Thu Mar 16, 2017 4:04 pm

alggag wrote:
crazytoaster wrote:
I don't see any new route additions for the cities I usually check. Nothing new for IND and CVG.

I did find a MAX 8 route LAX-MDW.

MAX8 also spotted on HOU-MDW-HOU, HOU-DAL-HOU, and STL-HOU runs. Much to my delight it's listed as operating the second leg of a flight I booked this morning (MDW-HOU).

For all the talk of there being a massive cull on this release things to seem to be fairly status quo. I'm sure there's an overall net reduction but I'm not really seeing the giant cuts that were predicted.

Found the Max8 on HOU-LAX too.

GLAD to see it on an STL-HOU flight. Nice eye!

Vctony · Thu Mar 16, 2017 4:32 pm

I've found the MAX8 on the following PHX routes.

PHX-BWI, PHX-LAX, PHX-MDW, PHX-MCO

czek6 · Thu Mar 16, 2017 4:37 pm

It looks like BWI-LIR, BWI-SJO, BWI-SJD are all dropped. Maybe seasonally?

maximairways · Thu Mar 16, 2017 5:01 pm

I see a MAX8 doing LAX-MDW-BWI.

Jshank83 · Thu Mar 16, 2017 5:19 pm

TWA302 wrote:
Jshank83 wrote:
I will make a home airport new service prediction, because those are the most fun to see. STL-CUN. I still only put it at 25% but no other stations I feel like are really needed from STL. Unless you are going to route BHM or SDF though it or something. I don't think fall/winter is the time to make CHS daily.

What are your last predictions before this comes out?

I would rather see SJD from STL. Won't happen but it would be nice for sure. I would assume CUN will happen, just not sure today. F9 and Xtra do that CUN thing, but I know WN could put a HUGE dent in their business with it.

Only F9 does Cancun. Apple vacations uses them as their package not Xtra. Xtra is the rest of them.

gr8slvrflt · Thu Mar 16, 2017 5:23 pm

Seven Max8s will enter service on October 1st. The inauguration will be flights 1, 2 and 3 DAL-HOU-SAT-DAL.

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