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Cubsrule
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread

Fri Aug 11, 2017 2:03 pm

Indy wrote:
Is expansion really necessary in the next 5 years? 10 years? Yes and no. If you went by the way the airport looks at 7am you would say absolutely. The terminal is at capacity when it comes to morning operations. So naturally that means it is at capacity at night. But that leaves a lot of open space. Being a spoke means you face some of the same problems a banked hub faces. You have periods where your airport is a zoo and periods where your airport is dead. Can IND justify expansion to allow more room for service during those banks while the rest of the time the place is quiet? How do you fill that dead space to allow passenger numbers to climb without having to invest in expansion?


One thing worth remembering is that IND was designed for six smaller legacies, which generally needed more counter space and gates than the three large legacies we have now. Changes in corporate structure and technology have changed space needs.

Indy wrote:
Jshank83 wrote:
BNA's incentives are capped at 2 mil for the LHR flight. I don't know if that is a per year number or over multi years number.


If that is the case then it really makes no sense that they get the service ahead of IND. Unless of course the announcement is still coming and they happened to announce that one first for whatever reason. Maybe because of the leak? I still think IND is going to get AMS but just based on the numbers IND should have gotten LHR ahead of BNA.


The BNA cash subsidy is $1 million this year and $500,000 in announced cash next year. None of that renews automatically. There's also a separate $500,000 loss guarantee and $500,000 in marketing and landing fee assistance that, for the moment, will end after two years.
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Jshank83
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread

Fri Aug 11, 2017 2:21 pm

Indy wrote:
Jshank83 wrote:
BNA's incentives are capped at 2 mil for the LHR flight. I don't know if that is a per year number or over multi years number.


If that is the case then it really makes no sense that they get the service ahead of IND. Unless of course the announcement is still coming and they happened to announce that one first for whatever reason. Maybe because of the leak? I still think IND is going to get AMS but just based on the numbers IND should have gotten LHR ahead of BNA.


Not to come off as a jerk but obviously the numbers you are going off of are either wrong or not the numbers that BA uses when it picks who it services. That said, I find it hard to believe many people on here have/know the right numbers/metrics for what goes into how flights are picked. We don't usually have updated international PDEW numbers or what actual incentives being offered by losing airports are at any given time. We don't know what companies in the different cities are offering as to how many flights they will buy. For me, no one can say picking airport A over B doesn't make sense when we don't have all that metrics and the airline does. They pick who will make them the most money, so they decided/know BNA makes them more money over the other options.
 
Cubsrule
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread

Fri Aug 11, 2017 2:25 pm

Jshank83 wrote:
Indy wrote:
Jshank83 wrote:
BNA's incentives are capped at 2 mil for the LHR flight. I don't know if that is a per year number or over multi years number.


If that is the case then it really makes no sense that they get the service ahead of IND. Unless of course the announcement is still coming and they happened to announce that one first for whatever reason. Maybe because of the leak? I still think IND is going to get AMS but just based on the numbers IND should have gotten LHR ahead of BNA.


Not to come off as a jerk but obviously the numbers you are going off of are either wrong or not the numbers that BA uses when it picks who it services. That said, I find it hard to believe many people on here have/know the right numbers/metrics for what goes into how flights are picked. We don't usually have updated international PDEW numbers or what actual incentives being offered by losing airports are at any given time. We don't know what companies in the different cities are offering as to how many flights they will buy. For me, no one can say picking airport A over B doesn't make sense when we don't have all that metrics and the airline does. They pick who will make them the most money, so they decided/know BNA makes them more money over the other options.


A couple of other things worth remembering are bleed and trajectory. BNA is much more isolated than is IND (if you look at TATL flights or airports with more than a handful of flights per day within an X hour drive, IND has more pretty much regardless of what X you pick). So, BA may see more upside in BNA as far as induced growth. Moreover, BNA's flights and passengers are growing faster than IND's. I've said before that IND had a stronger case today but I expect that the BNA case will/would have been stronger in 5-10 years. Timeframe of the comparison matters too. BA isn't starting these markets to rethink them in a few years.
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PSU.DTW.SCE
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread

Fri Aug 11, 2017 2:31 pm

A few thoughts on IND expansion:
The forecast data, like most FAA forecasts from the late-90s was heavily flawed based on straight-line extrapolation, but also a in different era before a lot of external factors impacted the industry, before consolidation, before increased security and in an entirely different era. In 2000, IND enplanements were 3.6 M, and the forecast was 40% increase in 2010 (5.0 M), 80% (6.5 M) increase by 2020.
2016 actual enplanements were 4.2 M, well below the 2001 forecast projection, but now fully recovered to pre-2008 levels and at historical highs.

For the most part, IND has more than ample airside capacity and infrastructure. A common challenge for most spoke airports in the significant peaks and valleys throughout the day, particularly with the big morning departure push, another big spike in late-afternoon/early evening, and then a heavy amount of arrivals in the evening.
Gates become the most visible aspect, but there is lot more issues particularly around TSA screening, baggage carosels, and other landside infrastructure to consider. The easiest way for spoke airports is to have good RON/hardstand parking for overnight aircraft since airlines don't necessarily need or want to have to lease gates just to handle their big morning push.

One of the issues is also staffing and its a factor that airlines consider when looking at their schedules as well. I've noticed, that part of the issue with some of the ULCC/LCC ticket counters is the low staffing count. Not uncommon for say F9 or G4 to have 1-2 agents working the counter with a line 100+ long, where over at DL they've got 4 agents standing around to work 2 RJs flights in the next hour where most are going to carry-on their bags in the first place. That isn't an airport issue, that is an airline issue.
 
Indy
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread

Fri Aug 11, 2017 2:49 pm

Cubsrule wrote:
A couple of other things worth remembering are bleed and trajectory. BNA is much more isolated than is IND (if you look at TATL flights or airports with more than a handful of flights per day within an X hour drive, IND has more pretty much regardless of what X you pick). So, BA may see more upside in BNA as far as induced growth. Moreover, BNA's flights and passengers are growing faster than IND's. I've said before that IND had a stronger case today but I expect that the BNA case will/would have been stronger in 5-10 years. Timeframe of the comparison matters too. BA isn't starting these markets to rethink them in a few years.


BNA is a strong domestic market. They badly lag behind in international numbers. Why is that? IND's London numbers are quite a bit higher as are the Europe numbers even with ORD 3-4 hours up the road. History has also proven that adding nonstop service stimulates demand. So if anything the passenger numbers would increase. Possibly significantly. Since BNA is isolated we know that people most likely aren't driving to other airports and having that nonstop service will pull them back to BNA. So being isolated gives a truer number that represents the limited demand for international service at BNA. IND isn't isolated and has a lot of area to draw passengers from. It can draw from CVG when people want a nonstop to London instead of making a connection in CDG, or people in Louisville who normally would just connect somewhere else. Or even east side of Chicago suburb for people who don't want to deal with the ORD mess. All BNA can do is hope the route stimulates demand. They won't be stealing passengers from other airports.
Indy = Indianapolis and not Independence Air
 
Cubsrule
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread

Fri Aug 11, 2017 3:26 pm

Indy wrote:
Cubsrule wrote:
BNA is a strong domestic market. They badly lag behind in international numbers. Why is that? IND's London numbers are quite a bit higher as are the Europe numbers even with ORD 3-4 hours up the road. History has also proven that adding nonstop service stimulates demand. So if anything the passenger numbers would increase. Possibly significantly. Since BNA is isolated we know that people most likely aren't driving to other airports and having that nonstop service will pull them back to BNA. So being isolated gives a truer number that represents the limited demand for international service at BNA. IND isn't isolated and has a lot of area to draw passengers from. It can draw from CVG when people want a nonstop to London instead of making a connection in CDG, or people in Louisville who normally would just connect somewhere else. Or even east side of Chicago suburb for people who don't want to deal with the ORD mess. All BNA can do is hope the route stimulates demand. They won't be stealing passengers from other airports.


Help me out with why IND TATL would draw from Louisville but BNA TATL won't. Or why people in Chattanooga who have a much easier drive to BNA wouldn't do that rather than fight Atlanta traffic if they do not want to connect somewhere. I think you have a bit of a double standard here.
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dronezone
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread

Fri Aug 11, 2017 4:02 pm

Indy wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
1. Which stats are you looking at?

2. With respect to expansion of concourses, no need at all right now, there are times in the day where there are no aircraft at A, and times where there are only 1 or 2 aircraft parked both A and B combined. The mornings can be full, but then again "you don't build a church for easter."

3. Here is the 2001 document that thoroughly details the new terminal http://www.indairport.org/downloads/mid ... lowres.pdf

4. I was with someone from IAA a couple weeks ago, and they were discussing expanding the ticketing facility with me, but not sure of the timeline for that. There is still space in the ticking and baggage claim areas so expansion isn't needed for a while

5. I saw a G4 A319 or A320 parked outside AAR yesterday, probably just for maintenance, but definitely going to become a common occurrence at IND by 2017


I was looking at a combination of stats shared earlier in this discussion. Some of the stats might have been yours. It was a combination of 2011 and 2013 numbers. In 2013 BNA had 26,075 passengers to London. In 2011 IND had 30,732. Chances are INDs numbers were higher in 2013. If I had a rough guess I would say 5k more passengers served to London than BNA. In 2013 BNA had 132,487 passengers served to Europe. In 2011 IND had 151,772 to Europe. Those numbers are a pretty big difference.

Regarding your comment #2... I agree that you can't build a church for Easter. So what do you do to fill seats on days that aren't Easter or Christmas? Not having more space for morning flights may be hurting expansion. But you can't please everyone. So there has to be a way to fill the void during the day. I think IND may need to look at incentives for off hour flights. Maybe reduced fees during slow periods.

Regarding #3... lol that is my website. I completely forgot I had that document there. I haven't updated the site in a very long time. I really need to get back to work on it but I have so much coding to do to allow people to post content on there again. I completely rewrote the software for the site.

Regarding #4... perhaps the way the terminal was built allows them to easily expand some areas and not others. So no need to go to a full 2020 plan. Just implement changes as needed.

And finally #5... It will be interesting to see how this base works out and how it influences G4 expansion at IND.



2017 Nashville/BNA is much.....much different than 2013 Nashville/BNA due to the high growth. I'm not sure those numbers are accurate anymore.
 
Indy
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread

Fri Aug 11, 2017 4:08 pm

Cubsrule wrote:
Help me out with why IND TATL would draw from Louisville but BNA TATL won't. Or why people in Chattanooga who have a much easier drive to BNA wouldn't do that rather than fight Atlanta traffic if they do not want to connect somewhere. I think you have a bit of a double standard here.


I have a double standard? You were the one that attempted to make the isolation argument for BNA. BNA might draw some from Lousville but IND is closer so with all things being equal people will likely make the drive to IND. BNA may pull some people from Chattanooga but lets be honest here. How much international traffic to you think comes from Chattanooga? And how many of those are already originating their travel in BNA? IND will be drawing from Ft. Wayne, Terre Haute, NW Indiana, Bloomington, South Bend, likely parts of eastern Illinois. They may also draw from Dayton, OH and possibly Cincinnati depending on price and the need for the nonstop to London. You are right. BNA is isolated and that will limit it. Remember that was your argument.
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Indy
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread

Fri Aug 11, 2017 4:11 pm

dronezone wrote:
2017 Nashville/BNA is much.....much different than 2013 Nashville/BNA due to the high growth. I'm not sure those numbers are accurate anymore.


Same is true for the Indy market. The Indianapolis CSA has grown to 2.37 million people. The IND catchment is even larger.
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Cubsrule
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread

Fri Aug 11, 2017 4:13 pm

Indy wrote:
IND will be drawing from Ft. Wayne, Terre Haute, NW Indiana, Bloomington, South Bend, likely parts of eastern Illinois. They may also draw from Dayton, OH and possibly Cincinnati depending on price and the need for the nonstop to London. You are right. BNA is isolated and that will limit it. Remember that was your argument.


. . . and IND competes with other airports for virtually all of this traffic. If you lived on the north side of Fort Wayne, would you rather drive to IND for a single flight or DTW for many choices? That's the point. Places like PAH, TYS and MKL are significantly closer to BNA than to any other TATL service. That's not true for places like DAY, FWA or GYY.
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Jshank83
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread

Fri Aug 11, 2017 4:19 pm

dronezone wrote:


2017 Nashville/BNA is much.....much different than 2013 Nashville/BNA due to the high growth. I'm not sure those numbers are accurate anymore.


I would agree that I doubt that they are accurate anymore. I don't even know if BNA was in the discussion in 2013 for a flight and now they have one. Which tells me that they aren't accurate anymore.

Indy wrote:

Or even east side of Chicago suburb for people who don't want to deal with the ORD mess. .


I don't believe this will happen. Right now flights from ORD to London nonstop are $575 RT, Nashville around $950 and most dates are higher. I would imagine IND would start at the same price. No one is driving from the south suburbs to IND to pay an extra 400 or more to drive further even if it means avoiding ORD. Business class from ORD are 2500 and BNA are 4500.
 
Indy
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread

Fri Aug 11, 2017 4:24 pm

Cubsrule wrote:
Indy wrote:
IND will be drawing from Ft. Wayne, Terre Haute, NW Indiana, Bloomington, South Bend, likely parts of eastern Illinois. They may also draw from Dayton, OH and possibly Cincinnati depending on price and the need for the nonstop to London. You are right. BNA is isolated and that will limit it. Remember that was your argument.


. . . and IND competes with other airports for virtually all of this traffic. If you lived on the north side of Fort Wayne, would you rather drive to IND for a single flight or DTW for many choices? That's the point. Places like PAH, TYS and MKL are significantly closer to BNA than to any other TATL service. That's not true for places like DAY, FWA or GYY.


IND already competes with those markets. It is nothing new. The traffic numbers were already higher with that competition and without the nonstop flight. So people from Chattanooga would drive to BNA for a single flight instead of ATL for many choices? You are defeating your own arguments.
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Cubsrule
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread

Fri Aug 11, 2017 4:57 pm

Indy wrote:
Cubsrule wrote:
Indy wrote:
IND will be drawing from Ft. Wayne, Terre Haute, NW Indiana, Bloomington, South Bend, likely parts of eastern Illinois. They may also draw from Dayton, OH and possibly Cincinnati depending on price and the need for the nonstop to London. You are right. BNA is isolated and that will limit it. Remember that was your argument.


. . . and IND competes with other airports for virtually all of this traffic. If you lived on the north side of Fort Wayne, would you rather drive to IND for a single flight or DTW for many choices? That's the point. Places like PAH, TYS and MKL are significantly closer to BNA than to any other TATL service. That's not true for places like DAY, FWA or GYY.


IND already competes with those markets. It is nothing new. The traffic numbers were already higher with that competition and without the nonstop flight. So people from Chattanooga would drive to BNA for a single flight instead of ATL for many choices? You are defeating your own arguments.


Chattanooga is odd because BNA is on the right side of Nashville for Chattanoogans, while ATL is on the wrong side of Atlanta. I agree with you that it is a close call, but if we are going to count Fort Wayne as a place that would support service at IND, we need to count Chattanooga for BNA.
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Midwestindy
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread

Fri Aug 11, 2017 7:03 pm

Indy wrote:
Cubsrule wrote:
A couple of other things worth remembering are bleed and trajectory. BNA is much more isolated than is IND (if you look at TATL flights or airports with more than a handful of flights per day within an X hour drive, IND has more pretty much regardless of what X you pick). So, BA may see more upside in BNA as far as induced growth. Moreover, BNA's flights and passengers are growing faster than IND's. I've said before that IND had a stronger case today but I expect that the BNA case will/would have been stronger in 5-10 years. Timeframe of the comparison matters too. BA isn't starting these markets to rethink them in a few years.


BNA is a strong domestic market. They badly lag behind in international numbers. Why is that? IND's London numbers are quite a bit higher as are the Europe numbers even with ORD 3-4 hours up the road. History has also proven that adding nonstop service stimulates demand. So if anything the passenger numbers would increase. Possibly significantly. Since BNA is isolated we know that people most likely aren't driving to other airports and having that nonstop service will pull them back to BNA. So being isolated gives a truer number that represents the limited demand for international service at BNA. IND isn't isolated and has a lot of area to draw passengers from. It can draw from CVG when people want a nonstop to London instead of making a connection in CDG, or people in Louisville who normally would just connect somewhere else. Or even east side of Chicago suburb for people who don't want to deal with the ORD mess. All BNA can do is hope the route stimulates demand. They won't be stealing passengers from other airports.


Good points!

I will also add, IND has a larger catchment area than most people think. For example, I have been on flights to LGA/BOS/LAX where I was actually sitting right next to someone from SDF, so there is heavy bleed from SDF to IND. Furthermore, if you look at Champaign, IL, 30% of its traffic drives to IND. Then you can throw in Purdue University, Indiana University, and all the other smaller cities mentioned here and there is a larger sized catchment than BNA. With respect to CVG bleed to IND, IND used to absorb a lot of CVGs traffic back in the day, I don't have the numbers on it but it was a very large percentage. Who is to say there couldn't be a smaller bleed for a flight to LON, the same could even apply for parts of NW/Northern Indiana.
ATL BWI BOS CLT MDW ORD CVG DFW DAL DAB DEN DTW FLL RSW GNV BDL HNL IAH IND MCI LAS LAX SDF MEM MIA MKE MSP BNA EWR HVN MSY JFK LGA MCO SFB PHX PHL PVD RDU RAP RIC SLC STL CPS PIE SEA TPA DCA IAD
 
Cubsrule
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread

Fri Aug 11, 2017 7:09 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
Then you can throw in Purdue University, Indiana University, and all the other smaller cities mentioned here and there is a larger sized catchment than BNA.


Can you show this math? The number you probably ought to aim for is 2.3 million (BNA MSA + BWG MSA + CKV MSA).
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Midwestindy
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread

Fri Aug 11, 2017 7:19 pm

Cubsrule wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
Then you can throw in Purdue University, Indiana University, and all the other smaller cities mentioned here and there is a larger sized catchment than BNA.


Can you show this math? The number you probably ought to aim for is 2.3 million (BNA MSA + BWG MSA + CKV MSA).


The Indianapolis CSA alone is 2,372,570 + (IU MSA-192,714, PU MSA-235,013, Kokomo CSA-136,429) = 2.94 Million right there within 1/2-1 drive, within 1-2 hour drive that number goes up a lot....
ATL BWI BOS CLT MDW ORD CVG DFW DAL DAB DEN DTW FLL RSW GNV BDL HNL IAH IND MCI LAS LAX SDF MEM MIA MKE MSP BNA EWR HVN MSY JFK LGA MCO SFB PHX PHL PVD RDU RAP RIC SLC STL CPS PIE SEA TPA DCA IAD
 
Cubsrule
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread

Fri Aug 11, 2017 7:27 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
Cubsrule wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
Then you can throw in Purdue University, Indiana University, and all the other smaller cities mentioned here and there is a larger sized catchment than BNA.


Can you show this math? The number you probably ought to aim for is 2.3 million (BNA MSA + BWG MSA + CKV MSA).


The Indianapolis CSA alone is 2,372,570 + (IU MSA-192,714, PU MSA-235,013, Kokomo CSA-136,429) = 2.94 Million right there within 1/2-1 drive, within 1-2 hour drive that number goes up a lot....


I understand that math, but you used the term catchment, which implies that all of those folks use IND exclusively. As you move further out, is that really true? Greensburg-CVG is a much easier drive than Greensburg-IND.
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piedmontf284000
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread

Fri Aug 11, 2017 7:38 pm

Indy wrote:
Cubsrule wrote:
Help me out with why IND TATL would draw from Louisville but BNA TATL won't. Or why people in Chattanooga who have a much easier drive to BNA wouldn't do that rather than fight Atlanta traffic if they do not want to connect somewhere. I think you have a bit of a double standard here.


I have a double standard? You were the one that attempted to make the isolation argument for BNA. BNA might draw some from Lousville but IND is closer so with all things being equal people will likely make the drive to IND. BNA may pull some people from Chattanooga but lets be honest here. How much international traffic to you think comes from Chattanooga? And how many of those are already originating their travel in BNA? IND will be drawing from Ft. Wayne, Terre Haute, NW Indiana, Bloomington, South Bend, likely parts of eastern Illinois. They may also draw from Dayton, OH and possibly Cincinnati depending on price and the need for the nonstop to London. You are right. BNA is isolated and that will limit it. Remember that was your argument.
Midwestindy wrote:
Indy wrote:
Cubsrule wrote:
A couple of other things worth remembering are bleed and trajectory. BNA is much more isolated than is IND (if you look at TATL flights or airports with more than a handful of flights per day within an X hour drive, IND has more pretty much regardless of what X you pick). So, BA may see more upside in BNA as far as induced growth. Moreover, BNA's flights and passengers are growing faster than IND's. I've said before that IND had a stronger case today but I expect that the BNA case will/would have been stronger in 5-10 years. Timeframe of the comparison matters too. BA isn't starting these markets to rethink them in a few years.


BNA is a strong domestic market. They badly lag behind in international numbers. Why is that? IND's London numbers are quite a bit higher as are the Europe numbers even with ORD 3-4 hours up the road. History has also proven that adding nonstop service stimulates demand. So if anything the passenger numbers would increase. Possibly significantly. Since BNA is isolated we know that people most likely aren't driving to other airports and having that nonstop service will pull them back to BNA. So being isolated gives a truer number that represents the limited demand for international service at BNA. IND isn't isolated and has a lot of area to draw passengers from. It can draw from CVG when people want a nonstop to London instead of making a connection in CDG, or people in Louisville who normally would just connect somewhere else. Or even east side of Chicago suburb for people who don't want to deal with the ORD mess. All BNA can do is hope the route stimulates demand. They won't be stealing passengers from other airports.


Good points!

I will also add, IND has a larger catchment area than most people think. For example, I have been on flights to LGA/BOS/LAX where I was actually sitting right next to someone from SDF, so there is heavy bleed from SDF to IND. Furthermore, if you look at Champaign, IL, 30% of its traffic drives to IND. Then you can throw in Purdue University, Indiana University, and all the other smaller cities mentioned here and there is a larger sized catchment than BNA. With respect to CVG bleed to IND, IND used to absorb a lot of CVGs traffic back in the day, I don't have the numbers on it but it was a very large percentage. Who is to say there couldn't be a smaller bleed for a flight to LON, the same could even apply for parts of NW/Northern Indiana.


I think it is clear that SDF, CVG, and ORD need to close up shop. They simply can't compete with IND.
 
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AirportRival
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread

Fri Aug 11, 2017 8:53 pm

Yeah I have to say that everybody in this forum seems to think that their favorite airport is the airport that people from nearby cities want to fly out of. That simply is not true. Most people from Cincinnati are not going to drive 2 hours to IND for a flight to London when there are connections in hubs that are less than that.
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Midwestindy
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread

Fri Aug 11, 2017 9:27 pm

Cubsrule wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
Cubsrule wrote:

Can you show this math? The number you probably ought to aim for is 2.3 million (BNA MSA + BWG MSA + CKV MSA).


The Indianapolis CSA alone is 2,372,570 + (IU MSA-192,714, PU MSA-235,013, Kokomo CSA-136,429) = 2.94 Million right there within 1/2-1 drive, within 1-2 hour drive that number goes up a lot....


I understand that math, but you used the term catchment, which implies that all of those folks use IND exclusively. As you move further out, is that really true? Greensburg-CVG is a much easier drive than Greensburg-IND.


The 2.94 million are the people who live within 1/2 an hour to an 1 hour from IND, most of those people are going to use IND exclusively considering they are only an hour or less from IND. Greensburg only has 11,000 people, and is not an hour or less from IND, so it isn't included in those numbers. There really is hardly any overlap between the CVG and IND catchment anyway, because most of the towns along I-74 between CVG and IND are pretty small.

HUF is an hour and 6 minutes from IND, so you can add 168,217 to the 2.94 million, there are other cities around that hour range, but for the sake of the argument I will leave the rest out...

3.1 is significantly larger than 2.3...

FWA to IND is a shorter drive than BNA to CHA, so IND could draw some pax from FWA as well. And as I mentioned before, even Champaign, IL bleeds 30% of its traffic to IND, so with a TATL that would be even more.

piedmontf284000 wrote:
I think it is clear that SDF, CVG, and ORD need to close up shop. They simply can't compete with IND.


Why not? Lol... With regards to SDF though, part of the reason they are so underserved is because they bleed so much to CVG/IND...

AirportRival wrote:
Yeah I have to say that everybody in this forum seems to think that their favorite airport is the airport that people from nearby cities want to fly out of. That simply is not true. Most people from Cincinnati are not going to drive 2 hours to IND for a flight to London when there are connections in hubs that are less than that.


1. IND is actually one of the top 1-2 airports in the country, and is consistently ranked at the top on most lists, so I have no idea why you wouldn't want to fly out of one of the best airports in the country?

2. Yeah I agree, I would say upwards of 95% of pax going CVG-LON would still fly through CVG, no one is saying tons of people are going to make the drive, but a few might...
ATL BWI BOS CLT MDW ORD CVG DFW DAL DAB DEN DTW FLL RSW GNV BDL HNL IAH IND MCI LAS LAX SDF MEM MIA MKE MSP BNA EWR HVN MSY JFK LGA MCO SFB PHX PHL PVD RDU RAP RIC SLC STL CPS PIE SEA TPA DCA IAD
 
SmithAir747
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread

Fri Aug 11, 2017 10:30 pm

I'm curious...

For those of you going into or out of Fort Wayne (or northeastern Indiana), would you be more likely to choose to fly into FWA itself or into IND? What factors into the decision?

I live in Denver now (and have previously lived in London, San Francisco, and Calgary since leaving Fort Wayne in 2004), but travel multiple times a year now to visit family in Fort Wayne (my hometown where I grew up).

Up until this year, I have been flying to FWA itself, which involves flying from the city where I live, then connecting at an AA, DL, or UA hub to a cramped "express" RJ flight on to FWA, and paying the fees the majors charge for just about everything (bags, etc). FWA has nothing but RJs (save for the G4 Airbus or MD jets).

This year, as I've needed to get home to Indianapolis and Fort Wayne more than usual, I discovered nonstop WN flights from DEN to IND (as I was going to Indianapolis for historical/personal reasons, then tagged on a few days in Fort Wayne). Along with offering these nonstop flights (as opposed to connections through hubs on the others to get to FWA), WN charge no fees at all for the first 2 checked bags and no fees to change tickets. The no-fee structure has enabled me to check bags and make necessary last-minute ticket changes, and still get cheaper flights straight to IND than what would be charged for flights on majors to FWA. Plus WN use full-size spacious aircraft, as opposed to the very small, cramped "Barbie jets" used by the legacies' regional contractors to FWA. I'm tired of "legacy-express" RJs and paying bag and other fees to fly on them to FWA. The airfares I've paid on WN, even with the rental car from Indianapolis to Fort Wayne for up to a week added on, are still cheaper in my experience than the airfares alone to FWA. I also like the greater choice in airlines and flights at IND than are offered at FWA.

Plus, the drive up and down I-69 between Fort Wayne and Indianapolis is already familiar to me, from years of going back and forth between the two for my frequent childhood appointments and surgeries in Indianapolis, that I've practically memorized all the exits off I-69. It's faster now with the higher speed limit (as opposed to the 55mph from my childhood). It's easy to pick up a rental car at IND (it's all right there, not at a remote facility), and even with that expense added on, it's still cheaper to go to IND than to FWA.

My next trip home to Fort Wayne is most likely at Christmas (my annual holiday trip home to family), and I'm tempted to stick with WN DEN-IND rather than flying DEN-xxx-FWA on a legacy and its RJ contractor with all the fees added on (which WN don't have), and rent a car again for the IND-FWA drive, depending on how the winter will be this year in Indiana for driving.

Anyone else had this experience/choice when visiting Fort Wayne? Could FWA eventually be "killed" by IND?

I'd really love it if there eventually were a nonstop IND-London service...I've been wanting to take a family member to London with me (to visit my old haunts in London together and show them around in London), and would love to avoid connecting in ORD or anywhere else, if there were a nonstop out of IND. I could simply fly to IND, go to Fort Wayne for a few days to see family, then take the selected family member back down to IND with me and get on the hypothetical nonstop from there to London...no ORD for us!

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Cubsrule
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread

Fri Aug 11, 2017 10:36 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
Cubsrule wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:

The Indianapolis CSA alone is 2,372,570 + (IU MSA-192,714, PU MSA-235,013, Kokomo CSA-136,429) = 2.94 Million right there within 1/2-1 drive, within 1-2 hour drive that number goes up a lot....


I understand that math, but you used the term catchment, which implies that all of those folks use IND exclusively. As you move further out, is that really true? Greensburg-CVG is a much easier drive than Greensburg-IND.


The 2.94 million are the people who live within 1/2 an hour to an 1 hour from IND, most of those people are going to use IND exclusively considering they are only an hour or less from IND. Greensburg only has 11,000 people, and is not an hour or less from IND, so it isn't included in those numbers. There really is hardly any overlap between the CVG and IND catchment anyway, because most of the towns along I-74 between CVG and IND are pretty small.

HUF is an hour and 6 minutes from IND, so you can add 168,217 to the 2.94 million, there are other cities around that hour range, but for the sake of the argument I will leave the rest out...

3.1 is significantly larger than 2.3...


Okay, but it's not an apples to apples comparison. My 2.3 deliberately leaves out some of the CSA. So again, help me with the math. A number more analogous to your 2.9 number for Nashville would be the CSA (1.988 million) + CKV (282,000) + BWG (171,000) + Tullahoma (101,000) + Cookevile (108,000).
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Midwestindy
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread

Fri Aug 11, 2017 11:01 pm

Cubsrule wrote:
Okay, but it's not an apples to apples comparison. My 2.3 deliberately leaves out some of the CSA. So again, help me with the math. A number more analogous to your 2.9 number for Nashville would be the CSA (1.988 million) + CKV (282,000) + BWG (171,000) + Tullahoma (101,000) + Cookevile (108,000).


Sure, I can understand if you got a little confused, IND CSA (2.37 million) + PU/LAF (220,000) + IU (179,000) + Kokomo (136,000) = 2.9 million
I didn't add in Terre Haute(168k) and Muncie(115k) the first time(both around 1 hour away, with no competing airports), so if you add those in you get around 3.2 million.

Then you get into SBN(563k)/FWA(570k)/CMI(232k)/EVV(350k)/SDF(1.4 mil) which get a less cut a little less cut and dry, and harder to determine exact bleed.
ATL BWI BOS CLT MDW ORD CVG DFW DAL DAB DEN DTW FLL RSW GNV BDL HNL IAH IND MCI LAS LAX SDF MEM MIA MKE MSP BNA EWR HVN MSY JFK LGA MCO SFB PHX PHL PVD RDU RAP RIC SLC STL CPS PIE SEA TPA DCA IAD
 
Cubsrule
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread

Fri Aug 11, 2017 11:09 pm

Population comparisons are great, though I don't think they tell us much here because we can tweak the boundaries in any number of ways and yet get broadly similar numbers. I'm looking for the data supporting your larger catchment assertion. Certainly, the airport passenger numbers are strong circumstantial evidence that you are incorrect.
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Midwestindy
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread

Fri Aug 11, 2017 11:36 pm

Cubsrule wrote:
Population comparisons are great, though I don't think they tell us much here because we can tweak the boundaries in any number of ways and yet get broadly similar numbers. I'm looking for the data supporting your larger catchment assertion. Certainly, the airport passenger numbers are strong circumstantial evidence that you are incorrect.


I'm not sure how any of population numbers were similar or close, there isn't a way you could change the map to have the BNA CSA>IND CSA, but anyway...airport passenger numbers mean jack squat

MEM(1.37 mill) had 12 million pax in 2000, would you say MEM has that large of a catchment area...I don't think so.
How about CVG(2.2mill) 22.4 million pax in 2000, would you say CVG has that large of a catchment area?

Airport Pax numbers have little connection to catchment area, and it also has no connection to TATL potential either...

Here are some articles from IL, that show IND's catchment area

http://www.jconline.com/story/money/201 ... /98525220/
http://www.news-gazette.com/news/local/ ... hreat.html
ATL BWI BOS CLT MDW ORD CVG DFW DAL DAB DEN DTW FLL RSW GNV BDL HNL IAH IND MCI LAS LAX SDF MEM MIA MKE MSP BNA EWR HVN MSY JFK LGA MCO SFB PHX PHL PVD RDU RAP RIC SLC STL CPS PIE SEA TPA DCA IAD
 
Cubsrule
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread

Fri Aug 11, 2017 11:58 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
MEM(1.37 mill) had 12 million pax in 2000, would you say MEM has that large of a catchment area...I don't think so.
How about CVG(2.2mill) 22.4 million pax in 2000, would you say CVG has that large of a catchment area?

Airport Pax numbers have little connection to catchment area, and it also has no connection to TATL potential either


It's a creative argument, but you are wrong. BNA had almost exactly 5,000,000 more passengers than IND last year. WN flew about 9,000,000 inbound and outbound seats. The airport ran an 84 percent load factor, so let's call it 7.65 million WN passengers. Unless you assume that WN's BNA operation is two thirds connecting and WN has no connections at IND (both of which are patently false), connections do not explain the gap.
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Midwestindy
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread

Sat Aug 12, 2017 12:03 am

Cubsrule wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
MEM(1.37 mill) had 12 million pax in 2000, would you say MEM has that large of a catchment area...I don't think so.
How about CVG(2.2mill) 22.4 million pax in 2000, would you say CVG has that large of a catchment area?

Airport Pax numbers have little connection to catchment area, and it also has no connection to TATL potential either


It's a creative argument, but you are wrong. BNA had almost exactly 5,000,000 more passengers than IND last year. WN flew about 9,000,000 inbound and outbound seats. The airport ran an 84 percent load factor, so let's call it 7.65 million WN passengers. Unless you assume that WN's BNA operation is two thirds connecting and WN has no connections at IND (both of which are patently false), connections do not explain the gap.


What is your argument here, so I can respond accordingly. Are you saying that passenger numbers equal higher likelihood for a TATL flight, or that pax numbers shows the size of a catchment area? What about comparing pax at BNA to RDU/SJC, or CLT to AUS/PDX that's where your argument begins to not make sense...

Pax numbers at BNA are higher because it is a focus city, PNS to BNA is for example 2x daily but only has 80 PDEW during peak season, meaning that flight(those passengers) probably wouldn't be around if the focus city wasn't around...
ATL BWI BOS CLT MDW ORD CVG DFW DAL DAB DEN DTW FLL RSW GNV BDL HNL IAH IND MCI LAS LAX SDF MEM MIA MKE MSP BNA EWR HVN MSY JFK LGA MCO SFB PHX PHL PVD RDU RAP RIC SLC STL CPS PIE SEA TPA DCA IAD
 
Cubsrule
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread

Sat Aug 12, 2017 12:20 am

Midwestindy wrote:
Cubsrule wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
MEM(1.37 mill) had 12 million pax in 2000, would you say MEM has that large of a catchment area...I don't think so.
How about CVG(2.2mill) 22.4 million pax in 2000, would you say CVG has that large of a catchment area?

Airport Pax numbers have little connection to catchment area, and it also has no connection to TATL potential either


It's a creative argument, but you are wrong. BNA had almost exactly 5,000,000 more passengers than IND last year. WN flew about 9,000,000 inbound and outbound seats. The airport ran an 84 percent load factor, so let's call it 7.65 million WN passengers. Unless you assume that WN's BNA operation is two thirds connecting and WN has no connections at IND (both of which are patently false), connections do not explain the gap.


What is your argument here, so I can respond accordingly. Are you saying that passenger numbers equal higher likelihood for a TATL flight, or that pax numbers shows the size of a catchment area? What about comparing pax at BNA to RDU/SJC, or CLT to AUS/PDX that's where your argument begins to not make sense...

Pax numbers at BNA are higher because it is a focus city, PNS to BNA is for example 2x daily but only has 80 PDEW during peak season, meaning that flight(those passengers) probably wouldn't operate if the focus city wasn't around...


It's not a hard argument. BNA has higher O&D and thus more demand for flights.
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Midwestindy
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread

Sat Aug 12, 2017 12:51 am

Cubsrule wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
Cubsrule wrote:

It's a creative argument, but you are wrong. BNA had almost exactly 5,000,000 more passengers than IND last year. WN flew about 9,000,000 inbound and outbound seats. The airport ran an 84 percent load factor, so let's call it 7.65 million WN passengers. Unless you assume that WN's BNA operation is two thirds connecting and WN has no connections at IND (both of which are patently false), connections do not explain the gap.


What is your argument here, so I can respond accordingly. Are you saying that passenger numbers equal higher likelihood for a TATL flight, or that pax numbers shows the size of a catchment area? What about comparing pax at BNA to RDU/SJC, or CLT to AUS/PDX that's where your argument begins to not make sense...

Pax numbers at BNA are higher because it is a focus city, PNS to BNA is for example 2x daily but only has 80 PDEW during peak season, meaning that flight(those passengers) probably wouldn't operate if the focus city wasn't around...


It's not a hard argument. BNA has higher O&D and thus more demand for flights.


Airport Passenger numbers are way too cloudy to make assumptions on O&D or to use to compare pax catchment areas, especially if a TATL is the topic being discussed. There are a lot of reasons why these numbers can not be used... for 1. Location isn't factored in, BNA is an a location that allows for flights to CVG/CMH/STL, IND is not, meaning right off the bat it will have more pax based on location. BNA is also farther away from cities like ORD/DTW/MKE/CLE meaning less pax at BNA are going to drive there instead of fly.
ATL BWI BOS CLT MDW ORD CVG DFW DAL DAB DEN DTW FLL RSW GNV BDL HNL IAH IND MCI LAS LAX SDF MEM MIA MKE MSP BNA EWR HVN MSY JFK LGA MCO SFB PHX PHL PVD RDU RAP RIC SLC STL CPS PIE SEA TPA DCA IAD
 
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AirportRival
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread

Sat Aug 12, 2017 1:17 am

Midwestindy wrote:
1. IND is actually one of the top 1-2 airports in the country, and is consistently ranked at the top on most lists, so I have no idea why you wouldn't want to fly out of one of the best airports in the country?


CVG has been ranked the best regional airport in the US 5 out of the last 6 years. To the vast majority of residents in the region that means absolutely nothing. Same goes for IND's award.
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread

Sat Aug 12, 2017 1:22 am

AirportRival wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
1. IND is actually one of the top 1-2 airports in the country, and is consistently ranked at the top on most lists, so I have no idea why you wouldn't want to fly out of one of the best airports in the country?


CVG has been ranked the best regional airport in the US 5 out of the last 6 years. To the vast majority of residents in the region that means absolutely nothing. Same goes for IND's award.


I'm not going to get into which airport is ranked higher, the point I was making was that you made it sound like IND was a bad airport to fly out of, which it isn't.
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AirportRival
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread

Sat Aug 12, 2017 1:42 am

Midwestindy wrote:
AirportRival wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
1. IND is actually one of the top 1-2 airports in the country, and is consistently ranked at the top on most lists, so I have no idea why you wouldn't want to fly out of one of the best airports in the country?


CVG has been ranked the best regional airport in the US 5 out of the last 6 years. To the vast majority of residents in the region that means absolutely nothing. Same goes for IND's award.


I'm not going to get into which airport is ranked higher, the point I was making was that you made it sound like IND was a bad airport to fly out of, which it isn't.


You entirely missed what I was saying. I was saying that rankings don't mean a thing. And I never insinuated that IND was a bad airport. I insinuated that there aren't going to be hundreds of thousands and people driving to IND if they get a TATL flight simply because of their ranking. Money and time are the key decision makers for passengers and IND would not always be the cheapest or most convenient option. All the arguing is pointless right now anyways because IND does not have TATL service and there are no rumors indicating that they will have any any time soon.
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Cubsrule
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread

Sat Aug 12, 2017 1:44 am

Midwestindy wrote:
Cubsrule wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:

What is your argument here, so I can respond accordingly. Are you saying that passenger numbers equal higher likelihood for a TATL flight, or that pax numbers shows the size of a catchment area? What about comparing pax at BNA to RDU/SJC, or CLT to AUS/PDX that's where your argument begins to not make sense...

Pax numbers at BNA are higher because it is a focus city, PNS to BNA is for example 2x daily but only has 80 PDEW during peak season, meaning that flight(those passengers) probably wouldn't operate if the focus city wasn't around...


It's not a hard argument. BNA has higher O&D and thus more demand for flights.


Airport Passenger numbers are way too cloudy to make assumptions on O&D or to use to compare pax catchment areas, especially if a TATL is the topic being discussed. There are a lot of reasons why these numbers can not be used... for 1. Location isn't factored in, BNA is an a location that allows for flights to CVG/CMH/STL, IND is not, meaning right off the bat it will have more pax based on location. BNA is also farther away from cities like ORD/DTW/MKE/CLE meaning less pax at BNA are going to drive there instead of fly.


I think we're about through here because this has reached a new level of silly. IND is farther away from cities like ATL/MEM/BHM/CLT meaning fewer pax at IND will drive instead of fly.
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cvgComair
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread

Sat Aug 12, 2017 1:54 am

One thing that keeps being brought up, just because airport XXX has XXX in incentives, that does not mean they are getting a European flight. Every airport in this area, BNA/IND/STL/MCI/MKE/CVG/IND/PIT/CLE/CMH/etc are putting up hundreds of thousands to millions of dollars to secure TATL routes. If it was as simple as putting up money, all of these cities would already have TATL service.

In addition, just because airport XXX (IND) is talking with airline XXX (British Airways), does not mean that they are "next" to get a flight. Sure there is a strong case for IND, but it is no stronger than any of the other airports being discussed. There are far too many factors: population, catchment area, connecting traffic, pricing power, business loyalty, predicted demand, aircraft scheduling, landing fees, airport use fees, I could keep going on and on. No one here can really prove that STL is better for a LHR flight than CVG or that IND would have been better than BNA, or CMH is going to get a flight before CLE, it doesn't work like that. We will not know wether IND or STL or CMH or CVG or MCI or ... will get a flight to LHR until BA announces it, this is just silly to argue over population/catchment areas when it is way more complicated than that.
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Cubsrule
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread

Sat Aug 12, 2017 1:55 am

Midwestindy wrote:
Cubsrule wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:

Airport Passenger numbers are way too cloudy to make assumptions on O&D or to use to compare pax catchment areas, especially if a TATL is the topic being discussed. There are a lot of reasons why these numbers can not be used... for 1. Location isn't factored in, BNA is an a location that allows for flights to CVG/CMH/STL, IND is not, meaning right off the bat it will have more pax based on location. BNA is also farther away from cities like ORD/DTW/MKE/CLE meaning less pax at BNA are going to drive there instead of fly.


I think we're about through here because this has reached a new level of silly. IND is farther away from cities like ATL/MEM/BHM/CLT meaning fewer pax at IND will drive instead of fly.


I know you are being sarcastic, but that's my point, passenger numbers are a ridiculous variable to use, there are too many variables it doesn't take into account...


Population within X minutes or Y miles is better?
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Midwestindy
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread

Sat Aug 12, 2017 1:56 am

Cubsrule wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
Cubsrule wrote:

It's not a hard argument. BNA has higher O&D and thus more demand for flights.


Airport Passenger numbers are way too cloudy to make assumptions on O&D or to use to compare pax catchment areas, especially if a TATL is the topic being discussed. There are a lot of reasons why these numbers can not be used... for 1. Location isn't factored in, BNA is an a location that allows for flights to CVG/CMH/STL, IND is not, meaning right off the bat it will have more pax based on location. BNA is also farther away from cities like ORD/DTW/MKE/CLE meaning less pax at BNA are going to drive there instead of fly.


I think we're about through here because this has reached a new level of silly. IND is farther away from cities like ATL/MEM/BHM/CLT meaning fewer pax at IND will drive instead of fly.


I know you are being sarcastic, but that's my point, passenger numbers are a ridiculous variable to use, there are too many variables it doesn't take into account...
ATL BWI BOS CLT MDW ORD CVG DFW DAL DAB DEN DTW FLL RSW GNV BDL HNL IAH IND MCI LAS LAX SDF MEM MIA MKE MSP BNA EWR HVN MSY JFK LGA MCO SFB PHX PHL PVD RDU RAP RIC SLC STL CPS PIE SEA TPA DCA IAD
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread

Sat Aug 12, 2017 2:02 am

AirportRival wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
AirportRival wrote:

CVG has been ranked the best regional airport in the US 5 out of the last 6 years. To the vast majority of residents in the region that means absolutely nothing. Same goes for IND's award.


I'm not going to get into which airport is ranked higher, the point I was making was that you made it sound like IND was a bad airport to fly out of, which it isn't.


You entirely missed what I was saying. I was saying that rankings don't mean a thing. And I never insinuated that IND was a bad airport. I insinuated that there aren't going to be hundreds of thousands and people driving to IND if they get a TATL flight simply because of their ranking. Money and time are the key decision makers for passengers and IND would not always be the cheapest or most convenient option. All the arguing is pointless right now anyways because IND does not have TATL service and there are no rumors indicating that they will have any any time soon.


I am not going to get into he said, she said whatever. But I agree money and time are key decision makers, which goes without saying. However, this isn't an argument, it's a discussion which is what this forum was made for, and I don't see why discussing catchment area and other variables is pointless, especially since IND is likely to get TATL service soon...
ATL BWI BOS CLT MDW ORD CVG DFW DAL DAB DEN DTW FLL RSW GNV BDL HNL IAH IND MCI LAS LAX SDF MEM MIA MKE MSP BNA EWR HVN MSY JFK LGA MCO SFB PHX PHL PVD RDU RAP RIC SLC STL CPS PIE SEA TPA DCA IAD
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread

Sat Aug 12, 2017 2:09 am

cvgComair wrote:
One thing that keeps being brought up, just because airport XXX has XXX in incentives, that does not mean they are getting a European flight. Every airport in this area, BNA/IND/STL/MCI/MKE/CVG/IND/PIT/CLE/CMH/etc are putting up hundreds of thousands to millions of dollars to secure TATL routes. If it was as simple as putting up money, all of these cities would already have TATL service.

In addition, just because airport XXX (IND) is talking with airline XXX (British Airways), does not mean that they are "next" to get a flight. Sure there is a strong case for IND, but it is no stronger than any of the other airports being discussed. There are far too many factors: population, catchment area, connecting traffic, pricing power, business loyalty, predicted demand, aircraft scheduling, landing fees, airport use fees, I could keep going on and on. No one here can really prove that STL is better for a LHR flight than CVG or that IND would have been better than BNA, or CMH is going to get a flight before CLE, it doesn't work like that. We will not know wether IND or STL or CMH or CVG or MCI or ... will get a flight to LHR until BA announces it, this is just silly to argue over population/catchment areas when it is way more complicated than that.


"Discussions about factual events happening in the airline and general aviation industries. If it's happening in commercial aviation, you'll get the information and opinions here first."

The point of a.net is to discuss and give opinions, that is what is happening

All the factors you have listed have been discussed at one point of an other about each airport you listed, and no one(including me) is saying catchment area is the reason an airport will get service, but that isn't to say it shouldn't be looked at.

"Because airport XXX (IND) is talking with airline XXX (British Airways), does not mean that they are "next" to get a flight" No one (including me) has said that is how it works....

"No one here can really prove that STL is better for a LHR flight than CVG or that IND would have been better than BNA, or CMH is going to get a flight before CLE" Exactly, but that doesn't mean it can't be discussed, or someone can't give their opinion on why another city might have been better than another or vice versa...
ATL BWI BOS CLT MDW ORD CVG DFW DAL DAB DEN DTW FLL RSW GNV BDL HNL IAH IND MCI LAS LAX SDF MEM MIA MKE MSP BNA EWR HVN MSY JFK LGA MCO SFB PHX PHL PVD RDU RAP RIC SLC STL CPS PIE SEA TPA DCA IAD
 
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread

Sat Aug 12, 2017 2:45 am

Midwestindy wrote:
cvgComair wrote:
One thing that keeps being brought up, just because airport XXX has XXX in incentives, that does not mean they are getting a European flight. Every airport in this area, BNA/IND/STL/MCI/MKE/CVG/IND/PIT/CLE/CMH/etc are putting up hundreds of thousands to millions of dollars to secure TATL routes. If it was as simple as putting up money, all of these cities would already have TATL service.

In addition, just because airport XXX (IND) is talking with airline XXX (British Airways), does not mean that they are "next" to get a flight. Sure there is a strong case for IND, but it is no stronger than any of the other airports being discussed. There are far too many factors: population, catchment area, connecting traffic, pricing power, business loyalty, predicted demand, aircraft scheduling, landing fees, airport use fees, I could keep going on and on. No one here can really prove that STL is better for a LHR flight than CVG or that IND would have been better than BNA, or CMH is going to get a flight before CLE, it doesn't work like that. We will not know wether IND or STL or CMH or CVG or MCI or ... will get a flight to LHR until BA announces it, this is just silly to argue over population/catchment areas when it is way more complicated than that.


"Discussions about factual events happening in the airline and general aviation industries. If it's happening in commercial aviation, you'll get the information and opinions here first."

The point of a.net is to discuss and give opinions, that is what is happening

All the factors you have listed have been discussed at one point of an other about each airport you listed, and no one(including me) is saying catchment area is the reason an airport will get service, but that isn't to say it shouldn't be looked at.

"Because airport XXX (IND) is talking with airline XXX (British Airways), does not mean that they are "next" to get a flight" No one (including me) has said that is how it works....

"No one here can really prove that STL is better for a LHR flight than CVG or that IND would have been better than BNA, or CMH is going to get a flight before CLE" Exactly, but that doesn't mean it can't be discussed, or someone can't give their opinion on why another city might have been better than another or vice versa...


Agree 100%. I love this forum, but I will say that I can't believe how much people get triggered on here. One little opinion and it turns into a huge bashing fest, complete with insults towards each other's cities. I am also a member of the AARoads Forum (where we discuss highways and roads) and while things get heated there sometimes, they rarely escalate to what I have seen here. If they do escalate, the moderators quickly step in and lock the thread. I am a big infrastructure junkie so I thoroughly enjoy both forums, but I wish people would be more civil on here (and I'm not referring to anyone in particular).

Anyway, like I've said before, my guess is IND is next up for a TATL flight. I expect an announcement sometime within the next year (whether it's BA, DL, AA, DY remains to be seen, but I'd lean towards the former two as the most likely options).
 
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cvgComair
Posts: 946
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread

Sat Aug 12, 2017 3:12 am

Midwestindy wrote:
"No one here can really prove that STL is better for a LHR flight than CVG or that IND would have been better than BNA, or CMH is going to get a flight before CLE" Exactly, but that doesn't mean it can't be discussed, or someone can't give their opinion on why another city might have been better than another or vice versa...

Of course it can be discussed, but this attitude that XXX airport is always better than XXX airport is ruining the good parts of this discussion. Arguing about exact population sizes and catchment areas is not "discussing", but is turning into a heated argument, when as you, I, and other users have pointed out, these numbers cannot be exclusively used to determine which city should get a TATL flight. Take a look at the DTW thread for the best examples of this, I really don't want good threads like PIT/STL/IND/Ohio to turn into that, and recent posts have been encroaching into that territory!

In stark contrast, there are many posts on here that tackle multiple factors at once and are very well informed opinions, which I throughly enjoy reading (you, ADrum23, and others have written a good number of them). Keep that up, not the arguing and accusing others of being wrong (I will not name who), we are all try to discuss what the most likely TATL adds for IND is. That was the point I was trying to get across above.

I think IND will see either BA to LHR and/or a LCC to Iceland/Ireland/London within the next 1-2 years. However, I am not so sure I see DL trying IND-AMS with CVG so close by. Just my opinion.
Last edited by cvgComair on Sat Aug 12, 2017 3:24 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Midwestindy
Posts: 1324
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread

Sat Aug 12, 2017 3:25 am

cvgComair wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
"No one here can really prove that STL is better for a LHR flight than CVG or that IND would have been better than BNA, or CMH is going to get a flight before CLE" Exactly, but that doesn't mean it can't be discussed, or someone can't give their opinion on why another city might have been better than another or vice versa...

Of course it can be discussed, but this attitude that XXX airport is always better than XXX airport is ruining the good parts of this discussion. Arguing about exact population sizes and catchment areas is not "discussing", but is turning into a heated argument, when as you, I, and other users have pointed out, these numbers cannot be exclusively used to determine which city should get a TATL flight. Take a look at the DTW thread for the best examples of this, I really don't want good threads like PIT/STL/IND/Ohio to turn into that, and recent posts have been encroaching into that territory!

In stark contrast, there are many posts on here that tackle multiple factors at once and are very well informed opinions, which I throughly enjoy reading (you, ADrum23, and others have written a good number of them). Keep that up, not the arguing and accusing others of being wrong (I will not name who), we are all try to discuss what the most likely TATL adds for IND is. That was the point I was trying to get across above.


:checkmark: agreed
ATL BWI BOS CLT MDW ORD CVG DFW DAL DAB DEN DTW FLL RSW GNV BDL HNL IAH IND MCI LAS LAX SDF MEM MIA MKE MSP BNA EWR HVN MSY JFK LGA MCO SFB PHX PHL PVD RDU RAP RIC SLC STL CPS PIE SEA TPA DCA IAD
 
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atypical
Posts: 692
Joined: Mon Aug 18, 2014 12:28 am

Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread

Sat Aug 12, 2017 4:10 am

I am probably going to step on a landmine but here it goes... There are a lot of factors that determine airport traffic. Looking at the CSA the airport is in is a good baseline indicator. A lot of other factors can make a huge difference. The business environment will can inflate service demand between certain markets. An area that has tourism as one of its major economic drivers can generate the demand between city pairs otherwise impossible.

for grins lets look at FAA defined large and medium airports within 250 miles and 100 miles of each airport not including themselves just to see the level of competition and leakage:

250mi BNA
L: ATL
M: IND, CVG
Enplanements: 57,919,750

100mi BNA
L:
M:
Enplanements:

250mi IND
L: ORD, DTW, MDW
M: BNA, CVG, STL, CHM
Enplanements: 88,603,980

100mi IND
L:
M: CVG
Enplanements: 3,261,870

British Airways might have considered BNA a captive market where IND is leaky.

And in my opinion, no significant number of passengers that fly from TYS-LON will be using BNA-LHR.

Driving time from TYS to BNA is 2hr 51min and TYS to CLT is 3hr 30min. Unless the BA fare is so cheap that the drive becomes worth the trouble no one will make it for the flight along. Further there is no airline service between TYS and BNA so driving is the only choice. There are 7 flights a day from TYS to CLT and AA operates 2 nonstops to LHR daily (average). Unless the fare is dirt cheap the residents of TYS are not going to change how they get to LON. Not a lot of people will choose to make a 3 hour car ride either before or after an 8 hour flight. And none of this is considering gas and parking fees unless they have chosen to indulge in real masochism by taking a Greyhound bus (since it does not appear there is an airport shuttle from BNA to Knoxville).

Any argument can be made that has some legitimacy to it but the real situation is complicated and would make a nice thick report for an Airport Management major's master's thesis to truly understand exactly why airports draw the traffic they do and how is the norm for service defined.
 
Indy
Posts: 4331
Joined: Thu Jan 20, 2005 1:37 pm

Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread

Sat Aug 12, 2017 4:25 am

atypical wrote:
250mi BNA
L: ATL
M: IND, CVG
Enplanements: 57,919,750

100mi BNA
L:
M:
Enplanements:

250mi IND
L: ORD, DTW, MDW
M: BNA, CVG, STL, CHM
Enplanements: 88,603,980

100mi IND
L:
M: CVG
Enplanements: 3,261,870


Those numbers would explain BNA's domestic numbers. What does it say about demand in the area for European service that IND had 15-20% more traffic to London and Europe? Do you have a theory that explains the difference?
Indy = Indianapolis and not Independence Air
 
Cubsrule
Posts: 12486
Joined: Sat May 15, 2004 12:13 pm

Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread

Sat Aug 12, 2017 1:49 pm

Indy wrote:
atypical wrote:
250mi BNA
L: ATL
M: IND, CVG
Enplanements: 57,919,750

100mi BNA
L:
M:
Enplanements:

250mi IND
L: ORD, DTW, MDW
M: BNA, CVG, STL, CHM
Enplanements: 88,603,980

100mi IND
L:
M: CVG
Enplanements: 3,261,870


Those numbers would explain BNA's domestic numbers. What does it say about demand in the area for European service that IND had 15-20% more traffic to London and Europe? Do you have a theory that explains the difference?


I realize it's the best we have, but those data are all 5+ years old. That's an eternity in Nashville. Heck, I was recently gone for two weeks and was shocked at the changes downtown when I returned.
I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
 
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Midwestindy
Posts: 1324
Joined: Sun Mar 12, 2017 3:56 am

Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread

Sat Aug 12, 2017 2:37 pm

cvgComair wrote:
I think IND will see either BA to LHR and/or a LCC to Iceland/Ireland/London within the next 1-2 years. However, I am not so sure I see DL trying IND-AMS with CVG so close by. Just my opinion.


I have heard a couple people from CVG mention the proximity to CVG as a reason why DL wouldn't try AMS-IND, my question is why would proximity matter in the case of a flight to AMS considering AMS is not any more convenient in terms of a European connection than CDG. Also, I question why DL would even be discussing the possibility with IND, if they thought CVG was too close.
ATL BWI BOS CLT MDW ORD CVG DFW DAL DAB DEN DTW FLL RSW GNV BDL HNL IAH IND MCI LAS LAX SDF MEM MIA MKE MSP BNA EWR HVN MSY JFK LGA MCO SFB PHX PHL PVD RDU RAP RIC SLC STL CPS PIE SEA TPA DCA IAD
 
Indy
Posts: 4331
Joined: Thu Jan 20, 2005 1:37 pm

Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread

Sat Aug 12, 2017 2:47 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
cvgComair wrote:
I think IND will see either BA to LHR and/or a LCC to Iceland/Ireland/London within the next 1-2 years. However, I am not so sure I see DL trying IND-AMS with CVG so close by. Just my opinion.


I have heard a couple people from CVG mention the proximity to CVG as a reason why DL wouldn't try AMS-IND, my question is why would proximity matter in the case of a flight to AMS considering AMS is not any more convenient in terms of a European connection than CDG. Also, I question why DL would even be discussing the possibility with IND, if they thought CVG was too close.


DL probably wouldn't do IND-CDG. They would be discussing it with IND because they want to capture the international traffic at IND. What is going to happen if an EU carrier launches IND-EU? They would risk losing some passengers from CVG in addition to losing a great deal of passengers at IND. Imagine if IND & CVG were a combined market. There would be no problem at all if DL ran both CDG and AMS out of the same market. It would be plenty big enough to support both flights.
Indy = Indianapolis and not Independence Air
 
Indy
Posts: 4331
Joined: Thu Jan 20, 2005 1:37 pm

Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread

Sat Aug 12, 2017 2:49 pm

I would love an AMS flight. It would make my Europe trips so much easier. I would take the IND-AMS nonstop and then catch a train to my final destination. I've taken the train from AMS before. I would just do it from there instead of FRA like normal.
Indy = Indianapolis and not Independence Air
 
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Midwestindy
Posts: 1324
Joined: Sun Mar 12, 2017 3:56 am

Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread

Sun Aug 13, 2017 1:17 am

http://businesstravelnews.texterity.com ... 5?pg=6#pg6

I found this cool site online that lists the Top 100 companies in the world based on how much they spend on air travel expenses within the US, and I was pleasantly surprised to see some companies with large presences in the Indianapolis MSA on there.

22.Roche ( $310 million globally)
25.Raytheon
29.UTC ($164.9 million globally)
42.FedEx
70.Eli Lilly ( $140 million globally)
86.Toyota
ATL BWI BOS CLT MDW ORD CVG DFW DAL DAB DEN DTW FLL RSW GNV BDL HNL IAH IND MCI LAS LAX SDF MEM MIA MKE MSP BNA EWR HVN MSY JFK LGA MCO SFB PHX PHL PVD RDU RAP RIC SLC STL CPS PIE SEA TPA DCA IAD
 
Cubsrule
Posts: 12486
Joined: Sat May 15, 2004 12:13 pm

Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread

Sun Aug 13, 2017 1:39 am

Midwestindy wrote:
http://businesstravelnews.texterity.com/businesstravelnews/september_28__2015?pg=6#pg6

I found this cool site online that lists the Top 100 companies in the world based on how much they spend on air travel expenses within the US, and I was pleasantly surprised to see some companies with large presences in the Indianapolis MSA on there.

22.Roche ( $310 million globally)
25.Raytheon
29.UTC ($164.9 million globally)
42.FedEx
70.Eli Lilly ( $140 million globally)
86.Toyota


What does Toyota Motor Sales have in Indianapolis?
I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
 
User avatar
Midwestindy
Posts: 1324
Joined: Sun Mar 12, 2017 3:56 am

Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread

Sun Aug 13, 2017 1:51 am

Cubsrule wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
http://businesstravelnews.texterity.com/businesstravelnews/september_28__2015?pg=6#pg6

I found this cool site online that lists the Top 100 companies in the world based on how much they spend on air travel expenses within the US, and I was pleasantly surprised to see some companies with large presences in the Indianapolis MSA on there.

22.Roche ( $310 million globally)
25.Raytheon
29.UTC ($164.9 million globally)
42.FedEx
70.Eli Lilly ( $140 million globally)
86.Toyota (Southwestern Indiana)


What does Toyota Motor Sales have in Indianapolis?


It's not in Indianapolis I edited it so it was more accurate for you. :lol:
ATL BWI BOS CLT MDW ORD CVG DFW DAL DAB DEN DTW FLL RSW GNV BDL HNL IAH IND MCI LAS LAX SDF MEM MIA MKE MSP BNA EWR HVN MSY JFK LGA MCO SFB PHX PHL PVD RDU RAP RIC SLC STL CPS PIE SEA TPA DCA IAD
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