Midwestindy wrote:

Cubsrule wrote:

Midwestindy wrote:

http://businesstravelnews.texterity.com/businesstravelnews/september_28__2015?pg=6#pg6

I found this cool site online that lists the Top 100 companies in the world based on how much they spend on air travel expenses within the US, and I was pleasantly surprised to see some companies with large presences in the Indianapolis MSA on there.

22.Roche ( $310 million globally)
25.Raytheon
29.UTC ($164.9 million globally)
42.FedEx
70.Eli Lilly ( $140 million globally)
86.Toyota (Southwestern Indiana)

What does Toyota Motor Sales have in Indianapolis?

It's not in Indianapolis I edited it so it was more accurate for you.

I'm not sure it's accurate still. Toyota Motor Sales is cars and light trucks only, not industrial equipment or fork trucks.

Cubsrule wrote:

Midwestindy wrote:

Cubsrule wrote:

What does Toyota Motor Sales have in Indianapolis?

It's not in Indianapolis I edited it so it was more accurate for you.

I'm not sure it's accurate still. Toyota Motor Sales is cars and light trucks only, not industrial equipment or fork trucks.

https://www.toyota.com/about/images/ope ... tiled2.pdf

If you look on the map, Toyota has a Sales/Service office in Indiana, southwest of where Indianapolis would be. Toyota also makes the Highlander, Camry, Sequoia, and Sienna in Indiana, and purchases its Brake Components, Console, Door Trim, Exhaust Systems, Fuel Tanks, Hinges/Locks, Seats, Steel Bumpers, Bearings, and Metal Stampings for all their US produced cars in Indiana. Plus, it has invested 4.5 billion in Indiana, with over 4,000 employees in Indiana alone.

Not sure what fork trucks or industrial equipment you mean?

Midwestindy wrote:

Cubsrule wrote:

Midwestindy wrote:

It's not in Indianapolis I edited it so it was more accurate for you.

I'm not sure it's accurate still. Toyota Motor Sales is cars and light trucks only, not industrial equipment or fork trucks.

https://www.toyota.com/about/images/ope ... tiled2.pdf

If you look on the map, Toyota has a Sales/Service office in Indiana, southwest of where Indianapolis would be. Toyota also makes the Highlander, Camry, Sequoia, and Sienna in Indiana, and purchases its Brake Components, Console, Door Trim, Exhaust Systems, Fuel Tanks, Hinges/Locks, Seats, Steel Bumpers, Bearings, and Metal Stampings for all their US produced cars in Indiana. Plus, it has invested 4.5 billion in Indiana, with over 4,000 employees in Indiana alone.

Not sure what fork trucks or industrial equipment you mean?

I'm extremely familiar with Toyota's US operations on both the car side and the industrial equipment side. You might take a look at the east side of the road next time you drive down 65 through Columbus; the forklift plant usually has some trucks parked out by the road. On the car side, with the end of Camry production in Lafayette, Toyota's Indiana footprint is probably marginally smaller than it was five years ago. The light truck plant is in Princeton, much closer to EVV than to IND.

Cubsrule wrote:

Midwestindy wrote:

Cubsrule wrote:

I'm not sure it's accurate still. Toyota Motor Sales is cars and light trucks only, not industrial equipment or fork trucks.

https://www.toyota.com/about/images/ope ... tiled2.pdf

If you look on the map, Toyota has a Sales/Service office in Indiana, southwest of where Indianapolis would be. Toyota also makes the Highlander, Camry, Sequoia, and Sienna in Indiana, and purchases its Brake Components, Console, Door Trim, Exhaust Systems, Fuel Tanks, Hinges/Locks, Seats, Steel Bumpers, Bearings, and Metal Stampings for all their US produced cars in Indiana. Plus, it has invested 4.5 billion in Indiana, with over 4,000 employees in Indiana alone.

Not sure what fork trucks or industrial equipment you mean?

I'm extremely familiar with Toyota's US operations on both the car side and the industrial equipment side. You might take a look at the east side of the road next time you drive down 65 through Columbus; the forklift plant usually has some trucks parked out by the road. On the car side, with the end of Camry production in Lafayette, Toyota's Indiana footprint is probably marginally smaller than it was five years ago. The light truck plant is in Princeton, much closer to EVV than to IND.

Cool, but what exactly are you trying to prove? I already said most of Toyota's Indiana operations were outside of Indianapolis. But, toyota still purchases it's Brake Components, Console, Door Trim, Exhaust Systems, Fuel Tanks, Hinges/Locks, Seats, Steel Bumpers, Bearings, and Metal Stampings in Indiana. Plus, as I already mentioned the Highlander, Sequoia, Sienna, and Camry are still made in Indiana. And, Toyota's employment in Indiana has grown from 4,500 (2013) to 5,314 (2016).

Indy wrote:

BNA is a strong domestic market. They badly lag behind in international numbers. Why is that? IND's London numbers are quite a bit higher as are the Europe numbers even with ORD 3-4 hours up the road. History has also proven that adding nonstop service stimulates demand. So if anything the passenger numbers would increase. Possibly significantly. Since BNA is isolated we know that people most likely aren't driving to other airports and having that nonstop service will pull them back to BNA. So being isolated gives a truer number that represents the limited demand for international service at BNA. IND isn't isolated and has a lot of area to draw passengers from. It can draw from CVG when people want a nonstop to London instead of making a connection in CDG, or people in Louisville who normally would just connect somewhere else. Or even east side of Chicago suburb for people who don't want to deal with the ORD mess. All BNA can do is hope the route stimulates demand. They won't be stealing passengers from other airports.

I would counter that a couple ways. The first is that BNA's numbers that I have seen quoted are from 2011. In that span of time Nashville has been transformed more than any other city with the exception of Austin, TX. It is quite literally a different city in so many ways.

You mention that BNA is isolated from other major airports, and that is true. However, there are several small (but still significant airports) within an easy drive that do frequent BNA for air service if the nonstop flights are there. Right now, many of those London passengers were going to their own airport and connecting through ATL/DTW/JFK/etc. However, with the addition of a LHR from BNA I really think they will get people driving in.

Consider:
Huntsville (HSV) - The MSA is relatively small at only ~450,000 people, but it is a very high tech, high travel economy with lots of expense accounts walking around. Lots of R&D, government contractors, and military travel. It is less than a two hour drive from Huntsville/Decatur to BNA, and there is already a culture of driving to BNA for nonstop flights (I did it for my honeymoon actually).
Knoxville (TYS) - MSA is moderate in size with ~850,000 people. BNA will capture a majority of the London traffic. Knoxville is already culturally tied to Nashville, so people will choose it over CLT if they can.
Evansville - MSA is small but travels a decent amount to BNA. My last flight had a couple that we spoke to that drove from Evansville to BNA for a flight. Evansville is closer to BNA than IND by 20-30 minutes.
Elizabethtown/Fort Knox - Small MSA of a little over ~110,000. Essentially 100% of the traffic would go through SDF previously, but travel time to BNA is only an hour and 20 minutes further than SDF. I suspect that a good chunk of that traffic will drive to BNA.
Jackson, TN - Small MSA of ~110,000. I lived near there 12 years ago. BNA will get essentially 100% of the Europe traffic from Jackson despite it being closer to MEM.
Chattanooga - MSA of 530,000. I would guess the vast majority of the Europe traffic goes to ATL or connects. There are already ten daily shuttles driving people to BNA from Chattanooga. A nonstop flight from BNA will attract a majority of those people looking to go to London from Chattanooga.

All told, there is the rough equivalent of another Nashville CSA that will now fall into the catchment area of BNA for London flights that was previously using their local airports or were travelling to SDF, IND, ATL, MEM, or TYS.

Cubsrule wrote:

I realize it's the best we have, but those data are all 5+ years old. That's an eternity in Nashville. Heck, I was recently gone for two weeks and was shocked at the changes downtown when I returned.

Not that you questioned it but I should have noted the numbers I used was from the CY2016 FAA report.

HeyHey wrote:

Knoxville (TYS) - MSA is moderate in size with ~850,000 people. BNA will capture a majority of the London traffic. Knoxville is already culturally tied to Nashville, so people will choose it over CLT if they can.

I will make a gentleman's wager of a of an unretouched genuine Airliners.net $1 bill that BNA-LHR will attract less than 5% of the TYS-LON loads for the reasons I mentioned earlier. I like your optimism but I think you have overestimated what BNA-LHR can capture from markets you mentioned. The may even publish another US-international city pair traffic someday so we actually see what these markets are doing on a YOY basis.

atypical wrote:

HeyHey wrote:

Knoxville (TYS) - MSA is moderate in size with ~850,000 people. BNA will capture a majority of the London traffic. Knoxville is already culturally tied to Nashville, so people will choose it over CLT if they can.

I will make a gentleman's wager of a of an unretouched genuine Airliners.net $1 bill that BNA-LHR will attract less than 5% of the TYS-LON loads for the reasons I mentioned earlier. I like your optimism but I think you have overestimated what BNA-LHR can capture from markets you mentioned. The may even publish another US-international city pair traffic someday so we actually see what these markets are doing on a YOY basis.

The thing to remember about TYS is it's somewhat odd location. If we look at a place like Oak Ridge, which probably generates an outsized share of TYs' demand, the drive time difference is less than two hours. Is that a small enough gap that everyone will drive to BNA? Of course not, but I expect some folks will at least consider it. There's a pretty strong culture of cross-shopping (including Nashvillians driving to TYS for G4) already.

Midwestindy wrote:

Cubsrule wrote:

Midwestindy wrote:

https://www.toyota.com/about/images/ope ... tiled2.pdf

If you look on the map, Toyota has a Sales/Service office in Indiana, southwest of where Indianapolis would be. Toyota also makes the Highlander, Camry, Sequoia, and Sienna in Indiana, and purchases its Brake Components, Console, Door Trim, Exhaust Systems, Fuel Tanks, Hinges/Locks, Seats, Steel Bumpers, Bearings, and Metal Stampings for all their US produced cars in Indiana. Plus, it has invested 4.5 billion in Indiana, with over 4,000 employees in Indiana alone.

Not sure what fork trucks or industrial equipment you mean?

I'm extremely familiar with Toyota's US operations on both the car side and the industrial equipment side. You might take a look at the east side of the road next time you drive down 65 through Columbus; the forklift plant usually has some trucks parked out by the road. On the car side, with the end of Camry production in Lafayette, Toyota's Indiana footprint is probably marginally smaller than it was five years ago. The light truck plant is in Princeton, much closer to EVV than to IND.

Cool, but what exactly are you trying to prove? I already said most of Toyota's Indiana operations were outside of Indianapolis. But, toyota still purchases it's Brake Components, Console, Door Trim, Exhaust Systems, Fuel Tanks, Hinges/Locks, Seats, Steel Bumpers, Bearings, and Metal Stampings in Indiana. Plus, as I already mentioned the Highlander, Sequoia, Sienna, and Camry are still made in Indiana. And, Toyota's employment in Indiana has grown from 4,500 (2013) to 5,314 (2016).

Let's at least be accurate. As I mentioned, Camry production in Indiana ended around Memorial Day 2016.

HeyHey wrote:

Indy wrote:

Consider:
Huntsville (HSV) - The MSA is relatively small at only ~450,000 people, but it is a very high tech, high travel economy with lots of expense accounts walking around. Lots of R&D, government contractors, and military travel. It is less than a two hour drive from Huntsville/Decatur to BNA, and there is already a culture of driving to BNA for nonstop flights (I did it for my honeymoon actually).
Knoxville (TYS) - MSA is moderate in size with ~850,000 people. BNA will capture a majority of the London traffic. Knoxville is already culturally tied to Nashville, so people will choose it over CLT if they can.
Evansville - MSA is small but travels a decent amount to BNA. My last flight had a couple that we spoke to that drove from Evansville to BNA for a flight. Evansville is closer to BNA than IND by 20-30 minutes.
Elizabethtown/Fort Knox - Small MSA of a little over ~110,000. Essentially 100% of the traffic would go through SDF previously, but travel time to BNA is only an hour and 20 minutes further than SDF. I suspect that a good chunk of that traffic will drive to BNA.
Jackson, TN - Small MSA of ~110,000. I lived near there 12 years ago. BNA will get essentially 100% of the Europe traffic from Jackson despite it being closer to MEM.
Chattanooga - MSA of 530,000. I would guess the vast majority of the Europe traffic goes to ATL or connects. There are already ten daily shuttles driving people to BNA from Chattanooga. A nonstop flight from BNA will attract a majority of those people looking to go to London from Chattanooga.

All told, there is the rough equivalent of another Nashville CSA that will now fall into the catchment area of BNA for London flights that was previously using their local airports or were travelling to SDF, IND, ATL, MEM, or TYS.

The cities you are mentioning are 2+ away from BNA, if I included every city that was 2 hours or less from IND, you would have CVG/DAY/SDF/FWA/NW Indiana/Eastern Illinois. That wouldn't make any sense, so lets keep it around a 1 hour drive. As someone mentioned earlier, people drive only if it saves time and especially money. Knoxville/Chattanooga travelers can save more money by flying out of ATL/CLT, because of cheaper fares and Chattanooga is closer to ATL(which has two carriers to London, and Elizabethtown is closer to CVG than BNA so if they are going to Europe they can fly through there.

Catchment area has been discussed pretty thoroughly though, so its probably time to move on from that topic

Midwestindy wrote:

HeyHey wrote:

Indy wrote:

Consider:
Huntsville (HSV) - The MSA is relatively small at only ~450,000 people, but it is a very high tech, high travel economy with lots of expense accounts walking around. Lots of R&D, government contractors, and military travel. It is less than a two hour drive from Huntsville/Decatur to BNA, and there is already a culture of driving to BNA for nonstop flights (I did it for my honeymoon actually).
Knoxville (TYS) - MSA is moderate in size with ~850,000 people. BNA will capture a majority of the London traffic. Knoxville is already culturally tied to Nashville, so people will choose it over CLT if they can.
Evansville - MSA is small but travels a decent amount to BNA. My last flight had a couple that we spoke to that drove from Evansville to BNA for a flight. Evansville is closer to BNA than IND by 20-30 minutes.
Elizabethtown/Fort Knox - Small MSA of a little over ~110,000. Essentially 100% of the traffic would go through SDF previously, but travel time to BNA is only an hour and 20 minutes further than SDF. I suspect that a good chunk of that traffic will drive to BNA.
Jackson, TN - Small MSA of ~110,000. I lived near there 12 years ago. BNA will get essentially 100% of the Europe traffic from Jackson despite it being closer to MEM.
Chattanooga - MSA of 530,000. I would guess the vast majority of the Europe traffic goes to ATL or connects. There are already ten daily shuttles driving people to BNA from Chattanooga. A nonstop flight from BNA will attract a majority of those people looking to go to London from Chattanooga.

All told, there is the rough equivalent of another Nashville CSA that will now fall into the catchment area of BNA for London flights that was previously using their local airports or were travelling to SDF, IND, ATL, MEM, or TYS.

The cities you are mentioning are 2+ away from BNA, if I included every city that was 2 hours or less from IND, you would have CVG/DAY/SDF/FWA/NW Indiana/Eastern Illinois. That wouldn't make any sense, so lets keep it around a 1 hour drive. As someone mentioned earlier, people drive only if it saves time and especially money. Knoxville/Chattanooga travelers can save more money by flying out of ATL/CLT, because of cheaper fares and Chattanooga is closer to ATL(which has two carriers to London, and Elizabethtown is closer to CVG than BNA so if they are going to Europe they can fly through there.

Catchment area has been discussed pretty thoroughly though, so its probably time to move on from that topic

We are talking about distances that require thought and nuance now. In the BNA TATL thread, Chattanooga folks have said they will drive to BNA for the service. Understanding Atlanta traffic and the fact that ATL is not the most user-friendly airport, I believe them. How large is the number? That's the harder question, but it's obviously more than zero and less than 100 percent.

It's no different from Fort Wayne or Dayton vis a vis IND. They are worth some attention but also not the be all end all.

Cubsrule wrote:

Midwestindy wrote:

HeyHey wrote:

The cities you are mentioning are 2+ away from BNA, if I included every city that was 2 hours or less from IND, you would have CVG/DAY/SDF/FWA/NW Indiana/Eastern Illinois. That wouldn't make any sense, so lets keep it around a 1 hour drive. As someone mentioned earlier, people drive only if it saves time and especially money. Knoxville/Chattanooga travelers can save more money by flying out of ATL/CLT, because of cheaper fares and Chattanooga is closer to ATL(which has two carriers to London, and Elizabethtown is closer to CVG than BNA so if they are going to Europe they can fly through there.

Catchment area has been discussed pretty thoroughly though, so its probably time to move on from that topic

We are talking about distances that require thought and nuance now. In the BNA TATL thread, Chattanooga folks have said they will drive to BNA for the service. Understanding Atlanta traffic and the fact that ATL is not the most user-friendly airport, I believe them. How large is the number? That's the harder question, but it's obviously more than zero and less than 100 percent.

It's no different from Fort Wayne or Dayton vis a vis IND. They are worth some attention but also not the be all end all.

For the sake of this discussion lets use the 2011 numbers because they include the smaller metros
BNA
Chattanooga: Pax to London: 1,218
Knoxville: Pax to London: 6,916
Huntsville: Pax to London: Not Available

IND
Dayton: Pax to London: 8,189
Louisville: Pax to London: 10,182
Cincinnati: Pax to London: 26,178 - has its own TATL, so numbers will be cut down
Fort Wayne: Pax to London: Not Available
Champaign/Bloomington, IL: Pax to London: Not Available

Midwestindy wrote:

Cubsrule wrote:

Midwestindy wrote:

The cities you are mentioning are 2+ away from BNA, if I included every city that was 2 hours or less from IND, you would have CVG/DAY/SDF/FWA/NW Indiana/Eastern Illinois. That wouldn't make any sense, so lets keep it around a 1 hour drive. As someone mentioned earlier, people drive only if it saves time and especially money. Knoxville/Chattanooga travelers can save more money by flying out of ATL/CLT, because of cheaper fares and Chattanooga is closer to ATL(which has two carriers to London, and Elizabethtown is closer to CVG than BNA so if they are going to Europe they can fly through there.

Catchment area has been discussed pretty thoroughly though, so its probably time to move on from that topic

We are talking about distances that require thought and nuance now. In the BNA TATL thread, Chattanooga folks have said they will drive to BNA for the service. Understanding Atlanta traffic and the fact that ATL is not the most user-friendly airport, I believe them. How large is the number? That's the harder question, but it's obviously more than zero and less than 100 percent.

It's no different from Fort Wayne or Dayton vis a vis IND. They are worth some attention but also not the be all end all.

For the sake of this discussion lets use the 2011 numbers because they include the smaller metros
BNA
Chattanooga: Pax to London: 1,218
Knoxville: Pax to London: 6,916
Huntsville: Pax to London: Not Available

IND
Dayton: Pax to London: 8,189
Louisville: Pax to London: 10,182
Cincinnati: Pax to London: 26,178 - has its own TATL, so numbers will be cut down
Fort Wayne: Pax to London: Not Available
Champaign/Bloomington, IL: Pax to London: Not Available

Keep in mind that those data do not capture passengers who now drive to a hub but might shift that drive to BNA or IND with service.

IND does lag behind its competition in terms of F500 companies, but IND has F500 companies like Lilly, that help IND pull above its weight in terms of Int'l travel
IND:4 (Cummins, Lilly, Anthem, Simon) 1 in Corporate Travel 100
CMH:5 (Cardinal Health, Nationwide, AEP, L Brands, Big Lots) 0 in Corporate Travel 100
CLE:7 (Goodyear, Progressive, Sherwin-Williams, Parker Hanifin, First Energy, Travel Centers of America, J.M. Smucker) 0 in Corporate Travel 100
STL:9 (Express Scrips, Centene, Emerson, Montsanto, Edward Jones, Ameren, Olin, Reinsurance, Graybar Electric) 1 in Corporate Travel 100

In terms of airline affiliation, STL is probably a better fit if it is BA, because of the AA FF base. But I think IND is a better fit for DL.
STL: American (Lounge)
CLE: United (Lounge)
IND: Delta (Lounge)
CMH: Delta (No Lounge)

Catchment Area, just looking at CSA alone:
CLE: 3.5million −0.92%
STL: 2.9million +0.67%
CMH: 2.44million +5.84%
IND: 2.4million +5.28%

Incentives I am not sure on for each city, but I believe STL and IND might be offering the most incentives

Good luck for any AA and WN FFs trying to get into IND on Wednesday, flights Sunday should be interesting as well...

AC YYZ-IND nonstop: $1,157 one-way

WN Nonstop PHX-IND: Sold out
WN Nonstop LAX-IND: Sold out
WN Nonstop DEN-IND: 1 Sold out
WN Nonstop ATL-IND: 1 Sold out
WN Nonstop LAS-IND: 1 Sold out
WN Nonstop TPA-IND: 1 Sold out
WN Nonstop DCA-IND: 1 Sold out
WN Nonstop BOS-IND: 1 Sold out
WN Nonstop BWI-IND: 1 Sold out
WN Nonstop MCO-IND: Sold out

AA ORD-IND 4/8 nonstops are booked out, the rest are charging at the least: $1,294 one way! Thursday is charging $134!
AA DFW-IND 3/5 nonstops are completely booked out, lowest price is $729 one way
AA CLT-IND nonstop lowest price $770 one way
AA LGA-IND nonstop lowest price $712 one way
AA PHL-IND nonstop lowest price $577 one way

DL SLC-IND nonstop $733

There are other ones as well...

It is crazy with Gen Con in town.

So, if it was Delta to gain the TATL- what would the 'most' likely destination and equipment be? Would it be daily, daily seasonally? Is everyone fairly confident Delta would initially use a 757 for AMS, LHR, or CDG?

Indy wrote:

It is crazy with Gen Con in town.

I'm hearing 75,000 unique attendees! So yeah, great event for the city to host, and great event to fill up the planes!

flyboy80 wrote:

So, if it was Delta to gain the TATL- what would the 'most' likely destination and equipment be? Would it be daily, daily seasonally? Is everyone fairly confident Delta would initially use a 757 for AMS, LHR, or CDG?

Not saying IND is going to happen, but DL employees have been saying that DL was going to be announcing new Int'l routes starting with MCO, and sure enough MCO-AMS happened, this coupled with the fact that IND is talking with an "airline" about flights to AMS, which could be announced in the near future has led me to believe IND-AMS is a real possibility.

As I mentioned earlier, IF it happens it will likely be DL IND-AMS, because that is what is being discussed right now between IND and DL, so that is the most likely. LHR is unlikely because it doesn't have many connections on either end, CDG is unlikely as well as they operate to CDG from both CVG and ORD. Whether it would be seasonal I don't know, but 3-4x weekly seems like a good way to start off. A 757 is pushing it on the range a little bit from IND to AMS (3614nm) but it should do the trick, if not DL might be able to find a 767ER to operate on the route instead.

IND should be able to support a 767 daily to Europe. I'm sure whatever equipment gets used will be supported by good cargo contracts.

Midwestindy wrote:

flyboy80 wrote:

So, if it was Delta to gain the TATL- what would the 'most' likely destination and equipment be? Would it be daily, daily seasonally? Is everyone fairly confident Delta would initially use a 757 for AMS, LHR, or CDG?

Not saying IND is going to happen, but DL employees have been saying that DL was going to be announcing new Int'l routes starting with MCO, and sure enough MCO-AMS happened, this coupled with the fact that IND is talking with an "airline" about flights to AMS, which could be announced in the near future has led me to believe IND-AMS is a real possibility.

As I mentioned earlier, IF it happens it will likely be DL IND-AMS, because that is what is being discussed right now between IND and DL, so that is the most likely. LHR is unlikely because it doesn't have many connections on either end, CDG is unlikely as well as they operate to CDG from both CVG and ORD. Whether it would be seasonal I don't know, but 3-4x weekly seems like a good way to start off. A 757 is pushing it on the range a little bit from IND to AMS (3614nm) but it should do the trick, if not DL might be able to find a 767ER to operate on the route instead.

Delta is dropping ORD-CDG, so I don't know if it helps, but it seems like it could make a flight from IND more feasible.

Some IND stuff going on

https://www.ibj.com/articles/65020-unit ... -francisco
Already announced a while ago..

Looks as if DL/UA/F9 upgauged a few of their flights today, in anticipation for Gen Con

Side note: According to the airport the top unserved markets are: BDL, SNA, PDX, SMF, SAT, SJU, PBI, SJC, ONT, LHR. So realistically IND is pretty capped out on domestic flights, outside of any G4 adds, the only reasonable additions I could see in the near future are AS PDX-IND, and BA LHR-IND (if DL doesn't act first). The other ones like ONT, SNA, e.t.c are stretches

My route addition, predictions for the next year:
G4 SJU-IND
G4 LAX-IND
G4 Central America/Carribean-IND
DL AMS-IND
DL SEA-IND
DL SLC-IND (Fully year round)
AS PDX-IND
AS SAN-IND (if WN doesn't go year round next year)
WN SAN-IND (year round)
WN STL or BNA-IND

Less likely announcements:
B6 BOS-IND
B6 JFK-IND
B6 FLL-IND
BA LHR-IND
WN AUS-IND
NK IND-DFW/DTW/FLL
WN DCA-IND (comes back from the dead)
WN PBI-IND

Hopefully didn't miss any..

Midwestindy wrote:

Some IND stuff going on

https://www.ibj.com/articles/65020-unit ... -francisco
Already announced a while ago..

Looks as if DL/UA/F9 upgauged a few of their flights today, in anticipation for Gen Con

Side note: According to the airport the top unserved markets are: BDL, SNA, PDX, SMF, SAT, SJU, PBI, SJC, ONT, LHR. So realistically IND is pretty capped out on domestic flights, outside of any G4 adds, the only reasonable additions I could see in the near future are AS PDX-IND, and BA LHR-IND (if DL doesn't act first). The other ones like ONT, SNA, e.t.c are stretches

My route addition, predictions for the next year:
G4 SJU-IND
G4 LAX-IND
G4 Central America/Carribean-IND
DL AMS-IND
DL SEA-IND
DL SLC-IND (Fully year round)
AS PDX-IND
AS SAN-IND (if WN doesn't go year round next year)
WN SAN-IND (year round)
WN STL or BNA-IND

Less likely announcements:
B6 BOS-IND
B6 JFK-IND
B6 FLL-IND
BA LHR-IND
WN AUS-IND
NK IND-DFW/DTW/FLL
WN DCA-IND (comes back from the dead)
WN PBI-IND

Hopefully didn't miss any..

List seems to bold.

But I do believe DL extended SLC-IND to year-round this year. G4 SJU-IND Seems feasible with no other carrier or charter serving it. Works from CVG and they just added the base to IND. I agree someone will do SAN-IND year-round (it is silly not too, demand is stable throughout the whole year), hope it is AS with PDX-IND add on top of that. For IND-STL/BNA the O&D is just too small and WN added IND-MDW recently for connections and MDW has significantly more connection options than either STL/BNA.

I am pessimistic about IND-TATL but we shall see soon. Any announcement would probably come before end of the year for that.

Midwestindy wrote:

Some IND stuff going on

https://www.ibj.com/articles/65020-unit ... -francisco
Already announced a while ago..

Looks as if DL/UA/F9 upgauged a few of their flights today, in anticipation for Gen Con

Side note: According to the airport the top unserved markets are: BDL, SNA, PDX, SMF, SAT, SJU, PBI, SJC, ONT, LHR. So realistically IND is pretty capped out on domestic flights, outside of any G4 adds, the only reasonable additions I could see in the near future are AS PDX-IND, and BA LHR-IND (if DL doesn't act first). The other ones like ONT, SNA, e.t.c are stretches

My route addition, predictions for the next year:
G4 SJU-IND
G4 LAX-IND
G4 Central America/Carribean-IND
DL AMS-IND
DL SEA-IND
DL SLC-IND (Fully year round)
AS PDX-IND
AS SAN-IND (if WN doesn't go year round next year)
WN SAN-IND (year round)
WN STL or BNA-IND

Less likely announcements:
B6 BOS-IND
B6 JFK-IND
B6 FLL-IND
BA LHR-IND
WN AUS-IND
NK IND-DFW/DTW/FLL
WN DCA-IND (comes back from the dead)
WN PBI-IND

Hopefully didn't miss any..

I hope you are wrong about DL AMS-IND. I see the route as marginal even with incentives and stands the change of never being profitable. That also hurt London service because it would be difficult to justify service to two European cities consecutively. If AMS fails then it may become far more difficult to attract European service as a failed market rather than an untested market. I am sure that all European service from IND is considered leaky to ORD, the question is by how much. If the European route fails then I think IND getting another will take additional years even with incentives.

crazytoaster wrote:

List seems to bold.

But I do believe DL extended SLC-IND to year-round this year. G4 SJU-IND Seems feasible with no other carrier or charter serving it. Works from CVG and they just added the base to IND. I agree someone will do SAN-IND year-round (it is silly not too, demand is stable throughout the whole year), hope it is AS with PDX-IND add on top of that. For IND-STL/BNA the O&D is just too small and WN added IND-MDW recently for connections and MDW has significantly more connection options than either STL/BNA.

I am pessimistic about IND-TATL but we shall see soon. Any announcement would probably come before end of the year for that.

It was meant to be bold

You are right about SLC-IND though, for some reason I thought it was only extended until March.

Yeah, I'm pretty confident in additional G4 routes by the end of the year, considering they said themselves that at least a few more routes were going to be announced from IND by the end of the year, and SJU seems to be one of the most likely adds considering they are running PIT/CVG/RDU-SJU, so I agree I don't see why IND wouldn't work. Hopefully they chose to expand internationally in 2018 from IND as well and add CUN, MBJ, and AUA.

I honestly think AS would be running that route(SAN-IND) if WN wouldn't have jumped in first, and I would personally rather have AS on that route over WN any day. Which is unfortunate, because now WN can't make it year-round yet because of the plane shortage. If AS jumped on this route, and PDX as well, that would really show that they are very interested in developing IND, which would bode well for IND if they planned any sort of focus city/hub expansion.

There isn't a real way to measure O&D on those routes, because most of those people who are coming from IND to STL/BNA are driving now, so the nonstop would definitely pull some of those passengers who are currently driving. You can even include me in that bunch, because I often have to drive to STL and a nonstop would mean I no longer have to make that 4+ hour drive, or connect through ORD to get to STL. Another example is that I am heading to Nashville for the eclipse this weekend, but since there is no nonstop I just chose to drive. I think there is more demand than you might think, especially if you add in connections.

TATL is an interesting case in that it is very difficult to tell whether an airport like IND is close to a TATL flight or not, and we really have no idea what criteria/numbers the airlines are looking at. So, we will have to wait and see, but I seem more optimistic than most. I don't mind waiting into 2018, but if it gets into 2019 and there isn't a TATL flight I would be concerned. But, I still think there is still plenty of time for new TATL flights to be announced this year though.

Midwestindy wrote:

crazytoaster wrote:

List seems to bold.

But I do believe DL extended SLC-IND to year-round this year. G4 SJU-IND Seems feasible with no other carrier or charter serving it. Works from CVG and they just added the base to IND. I agree someone will do SAN-IND year-round (it is silly not too, demand is stable throughout the whole year), hope it is AS with PDX-IND add on top of that. For IND-STL/BNA the O&D is just too small and WN added IND-MDW recently for connections and MDW has significantly more connection options than either STL/BNA.

I am pessimistic about IND-TATL but we shall see soon. Any announcement would probably come before end of the year for that.

It was meant to be bold

You are right about SLC-IND though, for some reason I thought it was only extended until March.

Yeah, I'm pretty confident in additional G4 routes by the end of the year, considering they said themselves that at least a few more routes were going to be announced from IND by the end of the year, and SJU seems to be one of the most likely adds considering they are running PIT/CVG/RDU-SJU, so I agree I don't see why IND wouldn't work. Hopefully they chose to expand internationally in 2018 from IND as well and add CUN, MBJ, and AUA.

I honestly think AS would be running that route(SAN-IND) if WN wouldn't have jumped in first, and I would personally rather have AS on that route over WN any day. Which is unfortunate, because now WN can't make it year-round yet because of the plane shortage. If AS jumped on this route, and PDX as well, that would really show that they are very interested in developing IND, which would bode well for IND if they planned any sort of focus city/hub expansion.

There isn't a real way to measure O&D on those routes, because most of those people who are coming from IND to STL/BNA are driving now, so the nonstop would definitely pull some of those passengers who are currently driving. You can even include me in that bunch, because I often have to drive to STL and a nonstop would mean I no longer have to make that 4+ hour drive, or connect through ORD to get to STL. Another example is that I am heading to Nashville for the eclipse this weekend, but since there is no nonstop I just chose to drive. I think there is more demand than you might think, especially if you add in connections.

TATL is an interesting case in that it is very difficult to tell whether an airport like IND is close to a TATL flight or not, and we really have no idea what criteria/numbers the airlines are looking at. So, we will have to wait and see, but I seem more optimistic than most. I don't mind waiting into 2018, but if it gets into 2019 and there isn't a TATL flight I would be concerned. But, I still think there is still plenty of time for new TATL flights to be announced this year though.

All great points. Totally agree with on AS/VX. They have SEA/SFO - IND now. Would be great to see SAN and PDX as well. Maybe AS will build their mythical midcon hub here? Haha, jk but would be awesome.

For STL and to a lesser extent BNA does it make sense to fly there as a business/leisure person? An easy 4 hour drive to STL vs a 1 hour flight plus getting to and from the airport makes the time savings moot. It's a tough sell except for the richest businesses. Would you really pay $200 rt for a flight to either on your own dime when you could drive thete in nearly the same amount of time and chance of the plane being delayed?

I know Chicago is similar distance away but it also has significantly more wealthy business travelers. On top of that Chicago has a decent mass transportation system reducing the need for a car overall. It is actually a hindrance and expensive to have a car in downtown. STL and BNA do not have any of those issues/advantages.

I guess further out in the futuere STL in particular could become even a larger connecting hub for WN as MDW becomes more congested. Then we could see IND-STL. But I'd rather see IND become a larger P2P operation itself.

atypical wrote:

I hope you are wrong about DL AMS-IND. I see the route as marginal even with incentives and stands the change of never being profitable. That also hurt London service because it would be difficult to justify service to two European cities consecutively. If AMS fails then it may become far more difficult to attract European service as a failed market rather than an untested market. I am sure that all European service from IND is considered leaky to ORD, the question is by how much. If the European route fails then I think IND getting another will take additional years even with incentives.

Normally I would say you are right about what would happen if IND-AMS fails but all you have to do is look at BDL to see how it works. They had AMS service on a 757 and the loads were terrible. The route was an epic failure. If you can't sell 60% of the seats on a 757 you have no business having the route. Right? Apparently not. Now BDL has 2 or 3 TATL flights. Just goes to show that sometimes the industry makes absolutely no sense.

I think it was 4 years ago IND had to bribe someone to fly IND-SFO. Today that route is 3x daily.

Midwestindy wrote:

My route addition, predictions for the next year:
G4 SJU-IND
G4 LAX-IND
G4 Central America/Carribean-IND
DL AMS-IND
DL SEA-IND
DL SLC-IND (Fully year round)
AS PDX-IND
AS SAN-IND (if WN doesn't go year round next year)
WN SAN-IND (year round)
WN STL or BNA-IND

Less likely announcements:
B6 BOS-IND
B6 JFK-IND
B6 FLL-IND
BA LHR-IND
WN AUS-IND
NK IND-DFW/DTW/FLL
WN DCA-IND (comes back from the dead)
WN PBI-IND

Hopefully didn't miss any..

Are these routes you predict to be announced this year and next with them all flying next year?

I think the IND-STL/BNA routes only have a chance because of the connection opportunities. If it was straight O&D they wouldn't happen. You could run planes IND-STL-SAN/OAK/PDX or IND-BNA-CLT/RDU/Florida and probably make them work.

I am not really all the keen on a Midwest Airport-AMS route. You fly past London and Paris so that seems a little silly to me to have to then backtrack if you want to go to those two. I guess if you wanted to go to those you would just connect in NY/DTW/IAD/PHL though. That might then hurt the AMS route.

Indy wrote:

atypical wrote:

I hope you are wrong about DL AMS-IND. I see the route as marginal even with incentives and stands the change of never being profitable. That also hurt London service because it would be difficult to justify service to two European cities consecutively. If AMS fails then it may become far more difficult to attract European service as a failed market rather than an untested market. I am sure that all European service from IND is considered leaky to ORD, the question is by how much. If the European route fails then I think IND getting another will take additional years even with incentives.

Normally I would say you are right about what would happen if IND-AMS fails but all you have to do is look at BDL to see how it works. They had AMS service on a 757 and the loads were terrible. The route was an epic failure. If you can't sell 60% of the seats on a 757 you have no business having the route. Right? Apparently not. Now BDL has 2 or 3 TATL flights. Just goes to show that sometimes the industry makes absolutely no sense.

I think it was 4 years ago IND had to bribe someone to fly IND-SFO. Today that route is 3x daily.

I'm not so worried about subsequent TATL opportunities from IND so much as the fact that a hypothetical IND-AMS route would strongly deter any other TATL service. The IND-AMS market is very small, even taking demand stimulation into account. Compared to a nonstop link to LHR, far and away IND's most frequented European destination, service to AMS isn't a whole lot of use to the IND market, save for perhaps a handful of one-stop connection opportunities.

flyguy89 wrote:

I'm not so worried about subsequent TATL opportunities from IND so much as the fact that a hypothetical IND-AMS route would strongly deter any other TATL service. The IND-AMS market is very small, even taking demand stimulation into account. Compared to a nonstop link to LHR, far and away IND's most frequented European destination, service to AMS isn't a whole lot of use to the IND market, save for perhaps a handful of one-stop connection opportunities.

The whole point to IND-AMS is to eliminate the US side connection. IND-AMS-EU is much better than IND-Some US Hub-EU. For me it would eliminate the connection completely as I'd take the train from AMS to my final destination. I'd do that instead of IND-Some US Hub-FRA/DUS/CGN + train.

Indy wrote:

atypical wrote:

I hope you are wrong about DL AMS-IND. I see the route as marginal even with incentives and stands the change of never being profitable. That also hurt London service because it would be difficult to justify service to two European cities consecutively. If AMS fails then it may become far more difficult to attract European service as a failed market rather than an untested market. I am sure that all European service from IND is considered leaky to ORD, the question is by how much. If the European route fails then I think IND getting another will take additional years even with incentives.

Normally I would say you are right about what would happen if IND-AMS fails but all you have to do is look at BDL to see how it works. They had AMS service on a 757 and the loads were terrible. The route was an epic failure. If you can't sell 60% of the seats on a 757 you have no business having the route. Right? Apparently not. Now BDL has 2 or 3 TATL flights. Just goes to show that sometimes the industry makes absolutely no sense.

I think it was 4 years ago IND had to bribe someone to fly IND-SFO. Today that route is 3x daily.

Loads were not that bad on BDL-AMS route, it was more the timing of the route. It was launched right as the recession was hitting and fuel was at some of the highest prices on record. I can pull some figures when I have time to dig into them but summer loads were typically in the 70/80's. Right now all indications after a slow start (fall 2016) BDL-DUB is performing very well with loads in the 80/90's. I was on 2 of the flights myself a few week ago and business class was 11/12 BDL-DUB and 12/12 DUB-BDL so it seems the front of the cabin is also doing well. Obviously a small sample size but looking at expert flyer quite a bit also shows full J class on most flights.

I have no doubt IND can support a flight to Europe, it just needs to be the correct airline and airport for it to take off and do well. IMO DUB is a much more valuable destination for medium sized east coast/midwest cities. Pre-clearance is a bonus and DUB is a great connecting airport and you never really overfly your connection city unlike AMS where you end up back tracking to many European cities.

Indy wrote:

flyguy89 wrote:

I'm not so worried about subsequent TATL opportunities from IND so much as the fact that a hypothetical IND-AMS route would strongly deter any other TATL service. The IND-AMS market is very small, even taking demand stimulation into account. Compared to a nonstop link to LHR, far and away IND's most frequented European destination, service to AMS isn't a whole lot of use to the IND market, save for perhaps a handful of one-stop connection opportunities.

The whole point to IND-AMS is to eliminate the US side connection. IND-AMS-EU is much better than IND-Some US Hub-EU. For me it would eliminate the connection completely as I'd take the train from AMS to my final destination. I'd do that instead of IND-Some US Hub-FRA/DUS/CGN + train.

Which is a debatable value proposition where at best one-stop traffic is also split among US/Canada hubs. I still think the best set-up for success for IND TATL is landing a nonstop to LHR.

atypical wrote:

I hope you are wrong about DL AMS-IND. I see the route as marginal even with incentives and stands the change of never being profitable. That also hurt London service because it would be difficult to justify service to two European cities consecutively. If AMS fails then it may become far more difficult to attract European service as a failed market rather than an untested market. I am sure that all European service from IND is considered leaky to ORD, the question is by how much. If the European route fails then I think IND getting another will take additional years even with incentives.

Even though I'd rather see IND-CDG, IND-AMS/LHR are the ones being discussed and I don't know why. (The only reason I can think of is Skyteam(KL/DL) is trying to expand its network out of AMS.) I don't think being leaky to ORD is such a bad thing, considering it means there is a higher number of pax going from IND to Europe than stats might otherwise show. You are right though, if a AMS-IND were to fail that would be disastrous for IND, but I don't think that will happen especially since Roche and Eli Lilly are big customers of Deltas and there is so much cargo that goes from IND to Europe that would help the flight a lot. Plus DL's 757s/767s are a great fit for a market pair like the one mentioned, and the DL FF base in IND is strong.

Indy wrote:

Are these routes you predict to be announced this year and next with them all flying next year?

I expect most of them to be either announced in the next year or flying in the next year.

Jshank83 wrote:

I think the IND-STL/BNA routes only have a chance because of the connection opportunities. If it was straight O&D they wouldn't happen. You could run planes IND-STL-SAN/OAK/PDX or IND-BNA-CLT/RDU/Florida and probably make them work.

Agreed, there isn't enough O&D even if you add in some of the people who are currently driving, but with connections it is possible.

I want to see Indy to asia one day probably hainan is the most likely.

I can also see jetblue adding mco, fll, jfk and bos. Delta will do an a319 to mco eventually and maybe even more point places on crj like hartford or even an embrar to sna.

fsafsx wrote:

I want to see Indy to asia one day probably hainan is the most likely.

2022-2030 time frame

fsafsx wrote:

I can also see jetblue adding mco, fll, jfk and bos. Delta will do an a319 to mco eventually and maybe even more point places on crj like hartford or even an embrar to sna.

DL a319 would be summer only, but who would run an embraer to SNA. But yeah B6 will probably add IND in the next 3 years.

uconn99 wrote:

Loads were not that bad on BDL-AMS route, it was more the timing of the route. It was launched right as the recession was hitting and fuel was at some of the highest prices on record. I can pull some figures when I have time to dig into them but summer loads were typically in the 70/80's. Right now all indications after a slow start (fall 2016) BDL-DUB is performing very well with loads in the 80/90's. I was on 2 of the flights myself a few week ago and business class was 11/12 BDL-DUB and 12/12 DUB-BDL so it seems the front of the cabin is also doing well. Obviously a small sample size but looking at expert flyer quite a bit also shows full J class on most flights.

I have no doubt IND can support a flight to Europe, it just needs to be the correct airline and airport for it to take off and do well. IMO DUB is a much more valuable destination for medium sized east coast/midwest cities. Pre-clearance is a bonus and DUB is a great connecting airport and you never really overfly your connection city unlike AMS where you end up back tracking to many European cities.

You might want to check the loads. Plus summer should be your absolute best time. You should be able to fill a 757. Look around outside of the summer. The loads were horrible. An airline isn't to keep a TATL flight to a market like BDL or any other midsize market going if it can't fill a plane in the summer because after that the loads are going to tank and the route is going to be a money loser. You need those full summer flights to carry the route through the lean times.

Load % Northwest BDL-AMS 2008-

Summer was a little lighter than I thought. Remember this was the first flight from BDL to Europe during a recession with little marketing. Also, these loads are only going off numbers I received from BDL and doesn't take into account canceled flights.

January- 61%
February- 59%
March- 78%
April- 73%
May- 71%
June- 74%
July- 80%
August- 70%
September- 73%

Midwestindy wrote:

Plus, as I already mentioned the Highlander, Sequoia, Sienna, and Camry are still made in Indiana.

Camry production at Lafayette ended last year; Camrys for the North American market are exclusively made in Georgetown, KY now.

BerenErchamion wrote:

Midwestindy wrote:

Plus, as I already mentioned the Highlander, Sequoia, Sienna, and Camry are still made in Indiana.

Camry production at Lafayette ended last year; Camrys for the North American market are exclusively made in Georgetown, KY now.

The Highlander, Sequoia, and Sienna are still made in Indiana....

The point wasn't about which cars were made in Indiana, the point was that Toyota has a large presence in Indiana.

There's lots of back and forth but I think in the end IND for BA is basically a matter of time, they are just going to want contracts with Rolls Royce and Cummins at the very least who have strong ties to the UK. And they may try to go for something with Lilly, too.

Midwestindy wrote:

BerenErchamion wrote:

Midwestindy wrote:

Plus, as I already mentioned the Highlander, Sequoia, Sienna, and Camry are still made in Indiana.

Camry production at Lafayette ended last year; Camrys for the North American market are exclusively made in Georgetown, KY now.

The Highlander, Sequoia, and Sienna are still made in Indiana....

Correct, which is why I didn't say anything to the contrary there.

The point wasn't about which cars were made in Indiana, the point was that Toyota has a large presence in Indiana.

Accuracy is valuable for its own sake.

Switching gears from TATL talk.... I saw it mentioned in another thread, but what are the chances that IND gets TPAC service in the next decade?

Hear me out...

Among all U.S. states, Indiana has the largest amount of Japanese investment per capita and is the only state that is home to three Japanese automotive original equipment manufacturer companies.

Toshiba, Sony, Subaru, Honda, Mitsubishi, Aisin, Hitachi, Toyota, and a lot of other major Japanese companies have large presences around IND.
https://webcache.googleusercontent.com/ ... clnk&gl=us

Furthermore, Lilly, Cummins, Simon Property Group, and other Indiana companies have lots of travel to and from Asia. Plus Purdue and IU close by could help as well.

In terms of Pax to Developed Asia-Pacific and Developing Asia-Pacific (both ways combined) here is how IND compared in 2011
IND: 97,994.756 (+126.9%) PIT: 91,168.97(+111.3%) STL:112,233(+108%) CVG:81,931(+100.7%) BNA:70,341(+122.5%) MSY:83,343(+43%) CMH:93,230(+101.3%) CLE: 90,508(+103.1%) + CAK:5,499(+136.3%) AUS:120,768(+93.6%) + SAT:59,556(+108.0%) RDU:134,350(+159%) MCI:80,311(+103.4%)

In terms of total Pax: 1.AUS/SAT 2.RDU 3.STL 4.IND 5.CMH 6.CLE/CAK 7.PIT 8.MSY 9.CVG 10.MCI 11.BNA
In terms of Growth: 1.RDU 2.CAK 3.IND 4.BNA 5.PIT 6.STL 6.SAT 7.MCI 8.CLE 9.CMH 10.CVG 11.AUS 12.MSY

I'm interested to hear what peoples thoughts are on the possibility of it happening within the decade...

RE; IND-AMS, as hip as it may be, weighs in at #24 on the brookings institute report (2011) -14.3%, 5492 pax/yr and would be good for hardly any o&d and probably cannibalize our chances for LHR, FRA, ect.... due to it's proximity. I also don't know of any direct business ties.
In order according to the report;
London 30,732 pax/yr -4.6% over 2003
FRA 13,932 -17.9%
CDG 10,785 -11.7%
FCO 7,546 +49.3%
Manchester, UK 6,375 23.1%
Both the UK and Germany have other cities outside of their main airports with additional business / o&d ties that would make them the most logical choice ie. BA, DE as LH seems to be out of the picture. Not sure why DE was never mentioned publicly yet AMS was.

As for TPAC service, it's seems all primary as of now except for Pitt who is starting charters with Hainan. If there is a public/ private partnership pushing for TPAC the way they have for TATL, I wouldn't be surprised to see it in the next few years.

Midwestindy wrote:

Switching gears from TATL talk.... I saw it mentioned in another thread, but what are the chances that IND gets TPAC service in the next decade?

Hear me out...

Among all U.S. states, Indiana has the largest amount of Japanese investment per capita and is the only state that is home to three Japanese automotive original equipment manufacturer companies.

Toshiba, Sony, Subaru, Honda, Mitsubishi, Aisin, Hitachi, Toyota, and a lot of other major Japanese companies have large presences around IND.
https://webcache.googleusercontent.com/ ... clnk&gl=us

Furthermore, Lilly, Cummins, Simon Property Group, and other Indiana companies have lots of travel to and from Asia. Plus Purdue and IU close by could help as well.

In terms of Pax to Developed Asia-Pacific and Developing Asia-Pacific (both ways combined) here is how IND compared in 2011
IND: 97,994.756 (+126.9%) PIT: 91,168.97(+111.3%) STL:112,233(+108%) CVG:81,931(+100.7%) BNA:70,341(+122.5%) MSY:83,343(+43%) CMH:93,230(+101.3%) CLE: 90,508(+103.1%) + CAK:5,499(+136.3%) AUS:120,768(+93.6%) + SAT:59,556(+108.0%) RDU:134,350(+159%) MCI:80,311(+103.4%)

In terms of total Pax: 1.AUS/SAT 2.RDU 3.STL 4.IND 5.CMH 6.CLE/CAK 7.PIT 8.MSY 9.CVG 10.MCI 11.BNA
In terms of Growth: 1.RDU 2.CAK 3.IND 4.BNA 5.PIT 6.STL 6.SAT 7.MCI 8.CLE 9.CMH 10.CVG 11.AUS 12.MSY

I'm interested to hear what peoples thoughts are on the possibility of it happening within the decade...

Think of it this way, on a given day in the summer there are around 250 to 300 commercial jets flying between the USA and Europe. (Someone with better data can provide the exact average number). Of those 250 to 300 jets, a portion of those passengers is made up of pax near IND, and tat portion is big enough to fill at least one of those jets. For that reason, it is not unreasonable to see 1 of those 250 to 300 jets go to IND, thus giving IND a TATL flight.

Now let's look at TPAC flights from USA (lower 48, so not Hawaii) to East Asia (Japan, Korea, China, etc.). Of those flights, there are maybe only 40 daily flights. Further, much less than 1/40 of the TPAC traffic is not going to/from IND. And since IND is not a hub, it doesn't make sense to funnel pax from other markets there.

Long story short, it is much easier to justify getting 1 of the 300 TATL flights than it is to obtain 1 of the only 40 daily TPAC flights.

IndEagle wrote:

RE; IND-AMS, as hip as it may be, weighs in at #24 on the brookings institute report (2011) -14.3%, 5492 pax/yr and would be good for hardly any o&d and probably cannibalize our chances for LHR, FRA, ect.... due to it's proximity. I also don't know of any direct business ties.
In order according to the report;
London 30,732 pax/yr -4.6% over 2003
FRA 13,932 -17.9%
CDG 10,785 -11.7%
FCO 7,546 +49.3%
Manchester, UK 6,375 23.1%
Both the UK and Germany have other cities outside of their main airports with additional business / o&d ties that would make them the most logical choice ie. BA, DE as LH seems to be out of the picture. Not sure why DE was never mentioned publicly yet AMS was.

Interesting, the business ties to AMS I am aware of have to do with Lilly, ALSN, and Cummins, here are some more http://economicties.org/state/indiana/ although you are right there aren't as many...

One thing that is important to note is that (Global Air Volume:$106 million)Lilly's air suppliers are: Southwest(US), United (TPAC), and Delta(US/Europe)
(Global Air Volume: $308 million) Roche's are: American, British, Delta, Lufthansa, Swiss, United

So any carrier whether it is BA/DE/DL/e.t.c will want to have contracts with those two companies(which DL does) + plus contracts RR and Cummins(No idea what their biz travel situation is)

Therefore, DL is probably at an advantage over BA in terms of corporate contracts and considering they operate two main hubs in Europe, CDG and AMS are the most likely for TATL service.
In terms of O&D, CDG makes more sense than AMS, considering the aerospace industry in Indiana and other French businesses around Central Indiana. But, perhaps DL/KL are trying to beef up AMS, considering they just added MCO-AMS.

O&D wise UK/Ireland would make more sense: Delphi, RR, Lilly, Cummins, Salesforce MC, Allegion, Appirio, ALSN, e.t.c.

Also one reason why I think DE wasn't mentioned was because of the fact that it is a "leisure" airline, and the airport is looking more for a "business" type airline. Germany would have been great but in terms of LH there is hardly any UA FFs in IND, even though Evonik, ThyssenKrupp, Festool, e.t.c have large presences in Central Indiana.

Midwestindy wrote:

Among all U.S. states, Indiana has the largest amount of Japanese investment per capita and is the only state that is home to three Japanese automotive original equipment manufacturer companies.

Toshiba, Sony, Subaru, Honda, Mitsubishi, Aisin, Hitachi, Toyota, and a lot of other major Japanese companies have large presences around IND.

I think Japan is IND’s best bet, and I agree with you, it is one of the best markets in the area for a flight to Japan. I really wish DL had gotten the slots and was able to start CVG-PEK/PVG/NRT so we could see what O&D demand can be stimulated by nonstop service in the Midwest. Time will tell, with new aircraft types and growing demand, I have a feeling flights to Asia will be much more economical in 15-20 years, though I am not completely convinced it will be enough to justify an Asia flight.

Finally found some more up-to-date, albeit 2013, O&D numbers on LHR-IND, unfortunately, it is only IND-LHR not IND-LON. However, using this as a reference LHR-IND had the highest average fare and higher revenue and O&D then LHR-STL/SLC/PDX/SAT/BNA/PIT.
Pg.26 http://www.aci-na.org/sites/default/fil ... slides.pdf

Also according to: https://blueswandaily.com/british-airwa ... network-2/

CLE and IND are the top 2 unserved markets from Europe, BNA was third.

cvgComair wrote:

Midwestindy wrote:

Among all U.S. states, Indiana has the largest amount of Japanese investment per capita and is the only state that is home to three Japanese automotive original equipment manufacturer companies.

Toshiba, Sony, Subaru, Honda, Mitsubishi, Aisin, Hitachi, Toyota, and a lot of other major Japanese companies have large presences around IND.

I think Japan is IND’s best bet, and I agree with you, it is one of the best markets in the area for a flight to Japan. I really wish DL had gotten the slots and was able to start CVG-PEK/PVG/NRT so we could see what O&D demand can be stimulated by nonstop service in the Midwest. Time will tell, with new aircraft types and growing demand, I have a feeling flights to Asia will be much more economical in 15-20 years, though I am not completely convinced it will be enough to justify an Asia flight.

While most of my data are anecdotal, I suspect that Asia may be more stimulable (at least on paper) because I think there's a lot more double ticketing going on to Asia. From a market like IND (or CVG or BNA), there are still a lot of Asia itineraries where a stop and multiple tickets make sense. A nonstop to an Asian hub would change that.

Is IND's East Asia demand pretty TYO-centric? Or would ICN make more sense post-JV?