Unlike people have speculated, UA won't be buying any more new 77W aircraft. The secondary market may provide some additional lift, though nothing has been decided so far:

"we may sprinkle in some used ones - United does not plan to order any additional new 777-300ERs beyond the 14 it ordered in 2015".

UA also believes the A330neo is too large to replace the 767 fleet. The carrier doesn't know yet what type of aircraft should replace the 767.

"Asked if the airline would look at converting the A350 order to A330neos to replace its ageing Boeing 767s, [Levy] replied: 'we think [the A330-900] is more airplane than we need'. Levy points to the size of the A330-900, which Airbus says can carry 287 passengers in a three-class configuration, compared to the 767s as an issue. United configures its 767-300ERs with 214 seats and its 767-400ERs with 242 seats".

Source
https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... dy-434915/

When do the first EK 77Ws hit the used market?

Given UAs feelings toward the MoM, the ruling out of the A330neo isn't much of a shock, but a but of a personal let down as I was starting to like the joint A330/A321LR replacement theory.

TWA772LR wrote:

When do the first EK 77Ws hit the used market?

This year already.

Based on what Levy said yesterday too, it sounds like UA could be the launch customer for the MOM project if it gets off the ground this year. With an EIS in 2025, that would be about the right time for UA to retire most/all 767s and 757s.

Thanks, these are the kinds of posts I like seeing on here. Something giving actual news, not things like "why doesn't Boeing bring back the 757".

... hmm, negotiation tactics? ... but Levy is not Al Bakr...

intotheair wrote:

Based on what Levy said yesterday too, it sounds like UA could be the launch customer for the MOM project if it gets off the ground this year. With an EIS in 2025, that would be about the right time for UA to retire most/all 767s and 757s.

Those 75's and 76's will be getting pretty old by the time the Boeing MOM (797 as they are likely calling it) will be ready for EIS. But based on what Levy is saying about the 330NEO it makes me think Boeing has some pretty detailed info about it and is close to offering it for sale.

No surprise on the 77W. Perhaps mildly surprised on the A330neo. However, the A350 will be great for them.

Since the 767 is still being produced, wouldn't they just get new ones? Or are they looking to get rid of the 767 completely?

aviationjunky wrote:

Since the 767 is still being produced, wouldn't they just get new ones? Or are they looking to get rid of the 767 completely?

Well an M.O.M may bring significant running cost improvements that UA is willing to wait 8 or so years for?

aviationjunky wrote:

Since the 767 is still being produced, wouldn't they just get new ones? Or are they looking to get rid of the 767 completely?

I presume they want something a fair bit more economical (in terms of fuel burn) than the current 767.

KarelXWB wrote:

Unlike people have speculated, UA won't be buying any more new 77W aircraft. The secondary market may provide some additional lift, though nothing has been decided so far:

"we may sprinkle in some used ones - United does not plan to order any additional new 777-300ERs beyond the 14 it ordered in 2015".

UA also believes the A330neo is too large to replace the 767 fleet. The carrier doesn't know yet what type of aircraft should replace the 767.

"Asked if the airline would look at converting the A350 order to A330neos to replace its ageing Boeing 767s, [Levy] replied: 'we think [the A330-900] is more airplane than we need'. Levy points to the size of the A330-900, which Airbus says can carry 287 passengers in a three-class configuration, compared to the 767s as an issue. United configures its 767-300ERs with 214 seats and its 767-400ERs with 242 seats".

Source
https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... dy-434915/

I'm not convinced (yet) that UA is done buying new 77Ws. Here's why: Scott Hamilton at LNC in one of his articles highlights that UA is going to buy the last 5 77Ws that Pakistan International Airlines ordered in February 2012. PIA swapped the 5 77ws for 8 787-8s but since those slots just don't disappear, they have to go somewhere and here is where UA comes in. Furthermore, there's no data that supports that the 5 77ws were cancelled, only that the PIA 77Ws are postponed for 2017 delivery. What is being delivered in 2017 is the 787-8s.

https://leehamnews.com/2017/02/27/ponti ... more-22415

Market intelligence says it’s also taking the five previously ordered by Pakistan International Airlines, which is swapping these to 787s. There’s been no announcement on this, however.

rotating14 wrote:

I'm not convinced (yet) that UA is done buying new 77Ws. Here's why: Scott Hamilton at LNC in one of his articles highlights that UA is going to buy the last 5 77Ws that Pakistan International Airlines ordered in February 2012. PIA swapped the 5 77ws for 8 787-8s but since those slots just don't disappear, they have to go somewhere and here is where UA comes in. Furthermore, there's no data that supports that the 5 77ws were cancelled, only that the PIA 77Ws are postponed for 2017 delivery. What is being delivered in 2017 is the 787-8s.

https://leehamnews.com/2017/02/27/ponti ... more-22415

It just means UA is taking over the PIA production slots, that doesn't mean there will be a new order.

PlanesNTrains wrote:

No surprise on the 77W. Perhaps mildly surprised on the A330neo. However, the A350 will be great for them.

I've heard from someone directly impacted by on boarding any new fleet, has been told to "hold" the introduction of the A350. It will not be joining United. The consensus is United is going all
Boeing moving forward. This is also the word on the street at Airbus. Of course it's hearsay at the moment, so take it for what's it worth.

But suffice it to say, if you don't prepare your backend systems, it's the proverbial canary in the coal mine.

Wpr8e wrote:

PlanesNTrains wrote:

No surprise on the 77W. Perhaps mildly surprised on the A330neo. However, the A350 will be great for them.

I've heard from someone directly impacted by on boarding any new fleet, has been told to "hold" the introduction of the A350. It will not be joining United. The consensus is United is going all
Boeing moving forward. This is also the word on the street at Airbus. Of course it's hearsay at the moment, so take it for what's it worth.

But suffice it to say, if you don't prepare your backend systems, it's the proverbial canary in the coal mine.

Thanks for the scoop! I thought though that UA had the simulators either on the property or enroute? I know there is significant lead time for the airline to prep a new aircraft type so things like simulators, training manuals, computer updates etc would need to be in-process by now to prep for a 2018 induction.

The 35K order is a big one. If the order was deferred or cancelled/exchanged for another AB product, that must have been done on the down-low quite some time ago to avoid penalties. UA will have to disclose this soon given it has a material impact on their financials.

postulations*

*This is a material negotiation tactic by United
*Ordering the A35J was a smart decision.

1) It is an excellent 747 replacement. It is a great 30 year solution for United
2) The addition of the A350 provides negotiating leverage when United needs to replace its 772 fleet.
a) Both the b78J and the a359 are comparable replacements for the 772.
b) Ideally United would like to replace ~half of the 772s with the 78J. However, an aggressive negotiation btwn A&B would provide United stockholders with an honest price
1) hypothetically, United & Boeing execs could see the 772s replaced with a mix ~25% 773, ~50% 78J, ~25% 778

*Ideally United would want to shape the airbus order as 24 A35Js and 32 A321neos
1) 24 A35Js replaces 20 747s plus 20% for growth. The replacement cycle follows 747 >> interim 773 >> A35J; the 773s are destine to replace older 772s, availability and timing creates nuances
2) The A321neo is an excellent solution for United. The planes replace older A320ceos as a matter of course, but again availability and timing... 752 >> interim a321 >> 797
*Boeing is exerting material pressure on United, with the 797 carrot. Certainly Boeing sales execs have followed the above potential paths.

intotheair wrote:

Based on what Levy said yesterday too, it sounds like UA could be the launch customer for the MOM project if it gets off the ground this year. With an EIS in 2025, that would be about the right time for UA to retire most/all 767s and 757s.

A lot can happen in eight years. Plus would sufficient numbers of UA 757s and 767s have enough life to survive a couple-year delay beyond projected EIS of 2015?

Wpr8e wrote:

I've heard from someone directly impacted by on boarding any new fleet, has been told to "hold" the introduction of the A350. It will not be joining United. The consensus is United is going all Boeing moving forward. This is also the word on the street at Airbus. Of course it's hearsay at the moment, so take it for what's it worth.

If UA are all Boeing going forward, and this is the consensus at the airline, and the word on the street at Airbus, there are some very serious breaches of listing and reporting requirements by both organisations.

If UA is going all Boeing, it will be a cancellation, not an alternative product, so massive cancellation penalties including already made prepayments forfeited and bank guarantees to be called up.

The lawyers must be checking the i's and t's.

It could possibly be some additional 787 aircraft to replace the 767 aircraft (-300ER and -400ER). The 757's possible replacement would be the A321LR or the 737 MAX 10 or any aircraft in the Middle of Market.

I can't see the article as I'm not a user but not definitive answer on the A350, I am keen to know whether UA will see an airbus widebody in its fleet.

Planesmart wrote:

Wpr8e wrote:

I've heard from someone directly impacted by on boarding any new fleet, has been told to "hold" the introduction of the A350. It will not be joining United. The consensus is United is going all Boeing moving forward. This is also the word on the street at Airbus. Of course it's hearsay at the moment, so take it for what's it worth.

If UA are all Boeing going forward, and this is the consensus at the airline, and the word on the street at Airbus, there are some very serious breaches of listing and reporting requirements by both organisations.

If UA is going all Boeing, it will be a cancellation, not an alternative product, so massive cancellation penalties including already made prepayments forfeited and bank guarantees to be called up.

The lawyers must be checking the i's and t's.

Like I said it's all gossip at the moment. I have no direct first hand knowledge.

KarelXWB wrote:

rotating14 wrote:

I'm not convinced (yet) that UA is done buying new 77Ws. Here's why: Scott Hamilton at LNC in one of his articles highlights that UA is going to buy the last 5 77Ws that Pakistan International Airlines ordered in February 2012. PIA swapped the 5 77ws for 8 787-8s but since those slots just don't disappear, they have to go somewhere and here is where UA comes in. Furthermore, there's no data that supports that the 5 77ws were cancelled, only that the PIA 77Ws are postponed for 2017 delivery. What is being delivered in 2017 is the 787-8s.

https://leehamnews.com/2017/02/27/ponti ... more-22415

It just means UA is taking over the PIA production slots, that doesn't mean there will be a new order.

I don't know if I agree. If the swap involved canceling the 777's, then the slots open up. If United ordered 777's and ended up getting those slots, then I would call it a new order, but on the whole it would net out to no change (assuming United orders the same number of 777's that PIA canceled). But I guess it's just a matter of semantics and who gets what. That, and there are a lot of ifs in my logic.

Wpr8e wrote:

PlanesNTrains wrote:

No surprise on the 77W. Perhaps mildly surprised on the A330neo. However, the A350 will be great for them.

I've heard from someone directly impacted by on boarding any new fleet, has been told to "hold" the introduction of the A350. It will not be joining United. The consensus is United is going all
Boeing moving forward. This is also the word on the street at Airbus. Of course it's hearsay at the moment, so take it for what's it worth.

But suffice it to say, if you don't prepare your backend systems, it's the proverbial canary in the coal mine.

There is no evidence for any of this. As it stands, UA has Airbus aircraft on order, and UA is continuing to take delivery of used A319s. Andrew Levy mused about swapping some or all A350s for smaller aircraft (likely A321s or A359s) a few months ago in the press, but an outright cancellation, as so many partisans have been praying for, seems highly unlikely and would be a poor business strategy for UA.

MIflyer12 wrote:

intotheair wrote:

Based on what Levy said yesterday too, it sounds like UA could be the launch customer for the MOM project if it gets off the ground this year. With an EIS in 2025, that would be about the right time for UA to retire most/all 767s and 757s.

A lot can happen in eight years. Plus would sufficient numbers of UA 757s and 767s have enough life to survive a couple-year delay beyond projected EIS of 2015?

That is true. I am far, far from being a Boeing cheerleader, but an 8-9 year timeline from launch to EIS seems fairly reasonable to me. Remember that the 787's timeline was much more ambitious and optimistic — wasn't the 7E7 originally launched with an estimated EIS in 2007/2008? If Boeing goes ahead with this project, it could either be a runaway success or a failure. Boeing does not have much margin of error to play with on a clean sheet this time around.

As for age, if the PW powered 752s are retired next year as has been rumored, the oldest 757 will be 31 years old in 2025, and the oldest 767 will be 34 years old. Meanwhile, the youngest 757 will be only 20 years old, and the youngest 767 will be 23 years old. So if they were to keep all of those frames through 2025, some of them would be up there in age, yes, but most of them would probably be fairly close to the right age for replacement.

How might not taking the A35Js and extra 77Ws make sense? Capacity discipline.

The 77As which are staying have been converted to the 365pax domestic configuration. The earliest 77E is 1999, and there are 19 (out of about 60) which are 1999 and 2000 deliveries. The oldest 77Es have at least 10 years left.

The 763 situation is more acute, but the planes being discussed are much bigger. And if the 76s are not replaced 1 for 1, where does the route coverage come from?

Wall Street analysts have more influence over what UA does than a.netters. A replacement plan which significantly increases the number of seats could lead to a downgrade. And new planes have to be flown all the time for them to be worth it. Old planes can be parked without much loss. It wouldn't surprise me if someone is maintaining a spreadsheet which predicts how much fleet expansion or new airplane cost will lead to a downgrade.

So waiting for ME3 and SE Asian airlines to get rid of 12 to 15 year old 777s might make sense. According to the (proverbial) spreadsheet.

Is it Wednesday already? More regurgitated UA 350/77W/321 speculation by people who herd something from someone who knows something.

Wpr8e wrote:

PlanesNTrains wrote:

No surprise on the 77W. Perhaps mildly surprised on the A330neo. However, the A350 will be great for them.

I've heard from someone directly impacted by on boarding any new fleet, has been told to "hold" the introduction of the A350. It will not be joining United. The consensus is United is going all
Boeing moving forward. This is also the word on the street at Airbus. Of course it's hearsay at the moment, so take it for what's it worth.

But suffice it to say, if you don't prepare your backend systems, it's the proverbial canary in the coal mine.

Other than slashing capital spending, I'm not clear on why UA would not want to take the A350? The -900/-1000 would serve them well and compliment the 787 fleet just fine. I'm guessing if anything they would just like to push back the deliveries 3-5 years to better coincide with their fleet retirements. The question mark continues to be the A321 v MAX 9/10/MoM? If UA wants the A321, it'd be fairly straightforward to negotiate a conversion. If UA wants the MAX or MoM, then pushing back the A350s - but not canceling the order - seems logical if that's their financial need right now.

If the A330neo is too big to replace the UA 767 fleet then what planes are available before 2020 to replace those 767's ? The 777 is too big so a 787 would seem like the only viable replacement. UA has 787-10 on order and more 787-9 seem to the answer.

Here's exactly how they might replace those 767s:

http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/ ... story.html

KarelXWB wrote:

rotating14 wrote:

I'm not convinced (yet) that UA is done buying new 77Ws. Here's why: Scott Hamilton at LNC in one of his articles highlights that UA is going to buy the last 5 77Ws that Pakistan International Airlines ordered in February 2012. PIA swapped the 5 77ws for 8 787-8s but since those slots just don't disappear, they have to go somewhere and here is where UA comes in. Furthermore, there's no data that supports that the 5 77ws were cancelled, only that the PIA 77Ws are postponed for 2017 delivery. What is being delivered in 2017 is the 787-8s.

https://leehamnews.com/2017/02/27/ponti ... more-22415

It just means UA is taking over the PIA production slots, that doesn't mean there will be a new order.

So help me understand this. If PIAs 2012 slots were not used and left open when they decided to take 787 slots instead, wouldn't UA be able to purchase those old 2012 PIA 77W slots? If they swapped the 5 77ws for 6 77Fs then I'd go along with your point but they essentially took up 787 slots and since those 77W slots are still on the books, anybody would be able to obtain them. In this case, it's UA.

Why wouldn't the 788/789 be the logical replacement for the UA 763/764 fleet? Number of seats are quite close between the types:

763 (2 class): 214 -> 778: 219
764: 242 -> 779: 252

rotating14 wrote:

PIA swapped the 5 77ws for 8 787-8s but since those slots just don't disappear

It was discussed, but doesn't seem to have happened. Boeing shows PIA as still having 5 x 77W outstanding.

jfk777 wrote:

UA has 787-10 on order and more 787-9 seem to the answer.

If UA says the A330-900 is too big to be a 767 replacement, then the 787-9 and 787-10 would also be too big. The only realistic, currently available plane would be the 787-8.

Wouldn't a 332 also fill that need with plenty of range flexibility while having good short stage length efficiency?

scbriml wrote:

rotating14 wrote:

PIA swapped the 5 77ws for 8 787-8s but since those slots just don't disappear

It was discussed, but doesn't seem to have happened. Boeing shows PIA as still having 5 x 77W outstanding.

jfk777 wrote:

UA has 787-10 on order and more 787-9 seem to the answer.

If UA says the A330-900 is too big to be a 767 replacement, then the 787-9 and 787-10 would also be too big. The only realistic, currently available plane would be the 787-8.

The key being the bold print above, IMO.

Just my two cents here. UA might be picking up some second hand 332s coming out of lease and see how they perform across the pound. Then they might place a new order on 338/9neo.

What is also interesting about the flightglobal article is that Levy states the 77W is the largest aircraft United feels comfortable with, which means that the 777-8 and 777-9 are out of the running as well.

I want to see Boeing's M.O.M. proposals which has United so intrigued. Two aircraft!

Strong indication that the Mom launch is close.

JAAlbert wrote:

What is also interesting about the flightglobal article is that Levy states the 77W is the largest aircraft United feels comfortable with, which means that the 777-8 and 777-9 are out of the running as well.

I want to see Boeing's M.O.M. proposals which has United so intrigued. Two aircraft!

Agreed. UA will not order the 777X, and neither will DL, for that matter. Only AA remains.

Wpr8e wrote:

PlanesNTrains wrote:

No surprise on the 77W. Perhaps mildly surprised on the A330neo. However, the A350 will be great for them.

I've heard from someone directly impacted by on boarding any new fleet, has been told to "hold" the introduction of the A350. It will not be joining United. The consensus is United is going all
Boeing moving forward. This is also the word on the street at Airbus. Of course it's hearsay at the moment, so take it for what's it worth.

But suffice it to say, if you don't prepare your backend systems, it's the proverbial canary in the coal mine.

I hate when I come on here and read completely made up garbage! Please for the love of god tell me who you know that gave you this information? Even just tell me what department they are in? No one who would be in a position to get the "hold" information has or would tell you anything and that is assuming that someone at United was even told to "hold" something. In addition to your serious inside knowledge of United you also seem to have some pretty high level inside knowledge of business operations at Airbus, care to share how these relationships came to be?

This is completely made up. I liked the site a lot better when you had to pay something to post and 13yr old kids who have been a member for 3 weeks weren't allowed to act like they have inside information from all over the industry.

rotating14 wrote:

So help me understand this. If PIAs 2012 slots were not used and left open when they decided to take 787 slots instead, wouldn't UA be able to purchase those old 2012 PIA 77W slots? If they swapped the 5 77ws for 6 77Fs then I'd go along with your point but they essentially took up 787 slots and since those 77W slots are still on the books, anybody would be able to obtain them. In this case, it's UA.

Just because PIA has outstanding aircraft in backlog doesn't mean Boeing assigned production slots to those aircraft. Lots of airlines have outstanding orders without fixed delivery date. As for the 787, the conversion hasn't happened yet.

scbriml wrote:

jfk777 wrote:

UA has 787-10 on order and more 787-9 seem to the answer.

If UA says the A330-900 is too big to be a 767 replacement, then the 787-9 and 787-10 would also be too big. The only realistic, currently available plane would be the 787-8.

You can add the A332/A338 to the current realistic available plane that can be used as a 767 replacement.

Well, A330s sounded a little awkward to me anyway for a big 787 operator.

For me it was always clear United plays a significant role behind the scenes in the 737-9, -10 , MoM, A321NEO discussions Boeing is having. The latest media statements confirm this. United will be the winner anyway, whatever they order, they'll get excellent prices / conditions.

Leahy no doubt is in aggressively, this is a strategic situation.

ual747den wrote:

Wpr8e wrote:

PlanesNTrains wrote:

No surprise on the 77W. Perhaps mildly surprised on the A330neo. However, the A350 will be great for them.

I've heard from someone directly impacted by on boarding any new fleet, has been told to "hold" the introduction of the A350. It will not be joining United. The consensus is United is going all
Boeing moving forward. This is also the word on the street at Airbus. Of course it's hearsay at the moment, so take it for what's it worth.

But suffice it to say, if you don't prepare your backend systems, it's the proverbial canary in the coal mine.

I hate when I come on here and read completely made up garbage! Please for the love of god tell me who you know that gave you this information? Even just tell me what department they are in? No one who would be in a position to get the "hold" information has or would tell you anything and that is assuming that someone at United was even told to "hold" something. In addition to your serious inside knowledge of United you also seem to have some pretty high level inside knowledge of business operations at Airbus, care to share how these relationships came to be?

This is completely made up. I liked the site a lot better when you had to pay something to post and 13yr old kids who have been a member for 3 weeks weren't allowed to act like they have inside information from all over the industry.

The all Boeing part is wrong. The a350 being up in the air is true.

ual747den wrote:

Wpr8e wrote:

PlanesNTrains wrote:

No surprise on the 77W. Perhaps mildly surprised on the A330neo. However, the A350 will be great for them.

I've heard from someone directly impacted by on boarding any new fleet, has been told to "hold" the introduction of the A350. It will not be joining United. The consensus is United is going all
Boeing moving forward. This is also the word on the street at Airbus. Of course it's hearsay at the moment, so take it for what's it worth.

But suffice it to say, if you don't prepare your backend systems, it's the proverbial canary in the coal mine.

I hate when I come on here and read completely made up garbage! Please for the love of god tell me who you know that gave you this information? Even just tell me what department they are in? No one who would be in a position to get the "hold" information has or would tell you anything and that is assuming that someone at United was even told to "hold" something. In addition to your serious inside knowledge of United you also seem to have some pretty high level inside knowledge of business operations at Airbus, care to share how these relationships came to be?

This is completely made up. I liked the site a lot better when you had to pay something to post and 13yr old kids who have been a member for 3 weeks weren't allowed to act like they have inside information from all over the industry.

Please, for the love of God, stop overreacting!

It's a rumor. Gossip. Nothing more. It could be totally made up, or it could be actual insider information. Time will tell. In the mean time, take a chill pill.

BTW there were similar kinds of reports back in the old days of a.net and some were false and some were true and no one freaked out over it.

It seems to me that UA has very many options, and is seriously considering many of them.
But they seem nowhere near any decisions just now. The pot is still being stirred.

enzo011 wrote:

You can add the A332/A338 to the current realistic available plane that can be used as a 767 replacement.

Yes, of course.

I understand why a brand new current 767 is not acceptable as a replacement for UA's current old 767's as the economics of running it are not there. But with everything Boeing has developed and learned when it comes to wings and engines, couldn't a 767-300/400 with a new wing, engine and cockpit close the gap enough to turn it into the MoM aircraft without the costs and timing associated with a clean sheet 797?

Perhaps I am just blinded by my bias toward the 767 because of it's pax friendly width, But I am struggling to envision what United saw on paper from Boeing that they liked so much, that would be so different than something the size and shape of a 767- I picture a 767 with new wings and engines. Together, would those aforementioned upgrades to a current 767 require reclassification? It would be interesting to photoshop a 767-300 with slightly smaller 787 wings, and tail, and new engines with the sawtooth edges- I would bet: pretty airplane!

scbriml wrote:

enzo011 wrote:

You can add the A332/A338 to the current realistic available plane that can be used as a 767 replacement.

Yes, of course.

I don't think it is very realistic for UA, though.

When you talk of a 767 with new wings, engines and cockpits, you're essentially talking about most of an all new plane. If you're going to do that much to a frame that old, you might as well just do the whole thing brand new.

Read somewhere yesterday that Boeing is confirming the MOM will be a twin isle aircraft available around 2024. I believe it appeared it the WSJ. I wonder if UA has also been informed of that and they are waiting to see what the economics of that aircraft might look before committing to anything.

seahawk wrote:

Strong indication that the Mom launch is close.

Indeed. It may even happen this year.