Unlike people have speculated, UA won't be buying any more new 77W aircraft. The secondary market may provide some additional lift, though nothing has been decided so far:
"we may sprinkle in some used ones - United does not plan to order any additional new 777-300ERs beyond the 14 it ordered in 2015".
UA also believes the A330neo is too large to replace the 767 fleet. .......
"Asked if the airline would look at converting the A350 order to A330neos to replace its ageing Boeing 767s, [Levy] replied: 'we think [the A330-900] is more airplane than we need'. Levy points to the size of the A330-900, which Airbus says can carry 287 passengers in a three-class configuration, compared to the 767s as an issue. United configures its 767-300ERs with 214 seats and its 767-400ERs with 242 seats".
Source https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... dy-434915/
With respects to a lively and engaging topic, lets hypothesis for a moment that this statement is inaccurate "The carrier doesn't know yet what type of aircraft should replace the 767."used 777
; Richard Anderson, an ardent used NB investor, would counsel economic caution with regard to renovating a used XWB. Majors with economic pricing power would be prudent evaluate comparative and true TCO over the life of a purchase.
77X choice; The 778 is ~14' shorter than the 773 with state-of-the-art engines. United is the second largest 777 operator in the world. While the current order book is either over-ordered or early-ordered, the 772 replacement factor model for a 778 purchase in the +7-12 year time frame deserves fact based consideration as a small sub-type.
772 life expectancy. 1/6th of passenger 772s are no longer in service. 1/4th of the 77As are no longer in service. The average age of 77A's in storage is ~20 years, the average age of 77E's in storage is ~17.4 years. The average age of scrapped 772s is ~16.6 years. United's oldest 77A is 22.7 years, first flight ~July 1994. United's oldest 77E is 20.4 years, first flight Oct 1996. Source planespotters.net
Will analytics derive 25 year lifespans or 30 year lifespans?767 replacement
"Scott Kirby, president of United, said in January that the 767 was the only aircraft that it does not have 'line of sight' to a replacement yet." For your consideration, the solutions are defined, the path is not.
1). Ron Baur, vice-president of fleet at United, said in May 2014 that the Boeing 787-9 was "ultimately a replacement for the 767-300ER". However, the airline has used the 19 787-9s it has taken since then for growth rather than replacement.
2). Extend the life of the 767. The 767 remains in production. Parts and Engines availability provide an extended support path.
3). MOM, hypothesized EIS is less relevant than a meaningful MOM production rate time-frame post 787 terrible teen issues.
footnote: United might even request the three retiring 767 BCC leased ~18yr old Hawaiian airline frames as a partial stop-gap.
The pressing/relavent problem is an economically viable solution for the 752. Using a 25 year life for the newest 752s and a 30 year life of the oldest 752s; the majority of the sub-fleet retires between 2024 and 2027.