I know that it was posted earlier but I cannot seem to find it, but DL is planning to start phasing out the MD-88 this summer. Can someone provide the ship numbers and approximate phase out schedule as it stands now?

I thought Delta is start by 2018 or 2019.

Q

From a previous post on here: 922 will be retired in July, and sometime this year 920, 925, 928-930, and 940 will retire too. All of them are expected to be parked by 2020.

Not sure on the ship numbers, but all are expected to be gone by 2020-2021.

Adispatcher wrote:

Not sure on the ship numbers, but all are expected to be gone by 2020-2021.

that's roughly 110 or so MD-88's. By that time, some will have close to if not 30 years of service.

MD88's are being retired, starting this June. Will be gone by end of year 2020. Total of 13 MD88's scheduled for retirement this year.

Thanks for the info.

Adispatcher wrote:

Not sure on the ship numbers, but all are expected to be gone by 2020-2021.

And what about the 717s and the MD-90s? Are those still staying? I know this topic is all about the MD-88 at Delta, but the 717 and the MD-90 are derivatives of the 88.

American 767 wrote:

Adispatcher wrote:

Not sure on the ship numbers, but all are expected to be gone by 2020-2021.

And what about the 717s and the MD-90s? Are those still staying? I know this topic is all about the MD-88 at Delta, but the 717 and the MD-90 are derivatives of the 88.

No, they're all derivatives of the DC9. The 90 and 95 aren't going anywhere anytime soon.

American 767 wrote:

And what about the 717s and the MD-90s? Are those still staying? I know this topic is all about the MD-88 at Delta, but the 717 and the MD-90 are derivatives of the 88.

The main reason the MD-88s are being phased out is that P&W is no longer supporting the JT8D-219 engine. The MD-90 and 717 using the more modern V2500 and RR BR715 engines respectively, which will be both supported for decades to come by their respective manufacturers.

tjerome wrote:

From a previous post on here: 922 will be retired in July.

Scared me a bit there. I was on 992 (AUS-ATL) when the flight crew had to declare an emergency due to smoke in the cabin that quickly cleared on the way down, leading me to become confident that it was "just" a failed A/C pack, so near the landing when the cabin air was clear again, I found myself suppressing my smile of excitement. The equipment met us on the ground, and I was ecstatic.

Sure enough, it was a failed A/C pack and the flight was cancelled. After getting rerouted to (groan) a CRJ-200 to MEM for my second connection to TPA, I talked with the FO who said the max rate of descent was 6,000 fpm and that we got down from FL360 in "12 minutes flat; that baby can fly". Right, he was. I'll miss the 88.

psychostang wrote:

MD88's are being retired, starting this June. Will be gone by end of year 2020. Total of 13 MD88's scheduled for retirement this year.

I guess the retirement of thirteen M88s, instead of the initially planned seven, is part of the accelerated plan to have them out of the fleet by 2020. So will Delta have them all out by the end of 2020 or by 2020? Only narrowbody aircraft being delivered in 2020 is the CSeries, per the 10-K. Not given is the total number scheduled to arrive in 2020. (First forty arrive in 2018/2019). The capacity scheduled to be delivered in 2018-2019 in the A321s/739s is roughly the same as the capacity of the 103 M88s that will be in the fleet going into next year.

Would this not put a damper on any possible expansion plans? That is a large number of aircraft to be taking out of the fleet. At some point, they will need to be replaced if DL wants to expand routes and frequencies.

Yes, they are phasing out the MD-88 just like the others. That is because the MD-88 is noisier and less fuel efficient than the equivalent modern narrow-bodied aircraft in production (737NG, A320 family, CSeries, COMAC C919). Other airlines have retired or are in process of retiring the MD-80 fleet before Delta commenced the MD-88 retirements. Delta became the largest operator of the MD-80 series as AA have downsized the MD-80 fleet, which was before Delta announced the retirement of the MD-88.

davescj wrote:

Would this not put a damper on any possible expansion plans? That is a large number of aircraft to be taking out of the fleet. At some point, they will need to be replaced if DL wants to expand routes and frequencies.

DL has 75 CSeries (and 50 options), 65 A321s and 47 739ERs on order.

DL's DFW/ATL route is a heavy user of MD88s so I wonder what will eventually replace those aircraft on that route?

Same problem allegiant has.. the MD88 is not noise compliant, ADSB compliant, and would need an updated FMS to work beyond 2019.

Sean-SAN- wrote:

Same problem allegiant has.. the MD88 is not noise compliant, ADSB compliant, and would need an updated FMS to work beyond 2019.

Noise compliant has nothing to do with it. Stage IV is only required for new build aircraft. The new FMS program could have been implemented, but engine support is the real problem that is putting them in the desert.

Put simply, the airplane requires a lot of maintenance to keep it somewhat reliable. More engine changes have been done, than Reagan had jelly beans!

American 767 wrote:

Adispatcher wrote:

Not sure on the ship numbers, but all are expected to be gone by 2020-2021.

And what about the 717s and the MD-90s? Are those still staying? I know this topic is all about the MD-88 at Delta, but the 717 and the MD-90 are derivatives of the 88.

No plans that I'm aware of for those. MD90s are undergoing interior mods to reduce the seat count to 158 allowing for a larger aft galley.

DeSpringbokke wrote:

psychostang wrote:

MD88's are being retired, starting this June. Will be gone by end of year 2020. Total of 13 MD88's scheduled for retirement this year.

I guess the retirement of thirteen M88s, instead of the initially planned seven, is part of the accelerated plan to have them out of the fleet by 2020. So will Delta have them all out by the end of 2020 or by 2020? Only narrowbody aircraft being delivered in 2020 is the CSeries, per the 10-K. Not given is the total number scheduled to arrive in 2020. (First forty arrive in 2018/2019). The capacity scheduled to be delivered in 2018-2019 in the A321s/739s is roughly the same as the capacity of the 103 M88s that will be in the fleet going into next year.

15 or 16 CSeries and the last batch of 739s should arrive in 2020.

The MD90's and A320's are roughly 7 years on average younger than the MD88's, so I would think Delta wouldn't start replacing them until around 2025. Around 2030, I would guess Delta will start replacing 717's and 737-800's.

ehaase wrote:

The MD90's and A320's are roughly 7 years on average younger than the MD88's, so I would think Delta wouldn't start replacing them until around 2025. Around 2030, I would guess Delta will start replacing 717's and 737-800's.

The first A320s leave the fleet this year.

Are the MD90's second hand acquired by Delta from mainland China carriers or were they just built in China?

Cointrin330 wrote:

Are the MD90's second hand acquired by Delta from mainland China carriers or were they just built in China?

Only two MD-90s were built in China. C/N 60001 L/N 4001 & C/N 60002 L/N 4002. These were delivered to China Northern Airlines as B-2100 and B-2103 respectively, bkth on 18 September 2000.



On 12 November 2004 these were transferred to China Southern Airlines, into which China Northern had been merged the previous year.



After being retired by China Southern both were bought by Delta, and eventually entered service in August 2012 as N964DN and N965DN.



V/F

American 767 wrote:

Adispatcher wrote:

Not sure on the ship numbers, but all are expected to be gone by 2020-2021.

And what about the 717s and the MD-90s? Are those still staying? I know this topic is all about the MD-88 at Delta, but the 717 and the MD-90 are derivatives of the 88.

Both are hanging around. As said in this thread, the 90s are getting mods done again. The company is studying if they want to do a PTV/AVOD mod or not.

not long ago Bastian said internally they would be around for at least another decade.

I'd assume the 717 is in the same ball park if not a little longer.

Spacepope wrote:

ehaase wrote:

The MD90's and A320's are roughly 7 years on average younger than the MD88's, so I would think Delta wouldn't start replacing them until around 2025. Around 2030, I would guess Delta will start replacing 717's and 737-800's.

The first A320s leave the fleet this year.

FWIW the A320s have cycle and motor issues of their own.

Dalmd88 wrote:

Sean-SAN- wrote:

Same problem allegiant has.. the MD88 is not noise compliant, ADSB compliant, and would need an updated FMS to work beyond 2019.

Noise compliant has nothing to do with it. Stage IV is only required for new build aircraft. The new FMS program could have been implemented, but engine support is the real problem that is putting them in the desert.

Yep. JT8D parts are getting expensive.

V2500 and BR715 supply chain should be active for years to come. Also getting the BR715s in-house should get the reliability issues worked out.

precure787 wrote:

Yes, they are phasing out the MD-88 just like the others. That is because the MD-88 is noisier and less fuel efficient than the equivalent modern narrow-bodied aircraft in production (737NG, A320 family, CSeries, COMAC C919). Other airlines have retired or are in process of retiring the MD-80 fleet before Delta commenced the MD-88 retirements. Delta became the largest operator of the MD-80 series as AA have downsized the MD-80 fleet, which was before Delta announced the retirement of the MD-88.

this has nothing to do with it at all.

These days when I hear the Mad Dog rumble into the air, it's a sound that takes me back to my childhood... I'm going to miss it.

deltal1011man wrote:

Both are hanging around. As said in this thread, the 90s are getting mods done again. The company is studying if they want to do a PTV/AVOD mod or not.

not long ago Bastian said internally they would be around for at least another decade.

I'd assume the 717 is in the same ball park if not a little longer.

IIRC, DL signed a 5 year sublease from WN for the 717s and DL does not own them. Of course, I'd be shocked if WN ever wanted the planes back. But do we know the current status of the lease? When does the initial lease end and when will DL extend the lease (if not already extended)?

ty97 wrote:

deltal1011man wrote:

Both are hanging around. As said in this thread, the 90s are getting mods done again. The company is studying if they want to do a PTV/AVOD mod or not.

not long ago Bastian said internally they would be around for at least another decade.

I'd assume the 717 is in the same ball park if not a little longer.

IIRC, DL signed a 5 year sublease from WN for the 717s and DL does not own them. Of course, I'd be shocked if WN ever wanted the planes back. But do we know the current status of the lease? When does the initial lease end and when will DL extend the lease (if not already extended)?

I believe Delta planned on purchasing each one after their individual leases expired.

ty97 wrote:

deltal1011man wrote:

Both are hanging around. As said in this thread, the 90s are getting mods done again. The company is studying if they want to do a PTV/AVOD mod or not.

not long ago Bastian said internally they would be around for at least another decade.

I'd assume the 717 is in the same ball park if not a little longer.

IIRC, DL signed a 5 year sublease from WN for the 717s and DL does not own them. Of course, I'd be shocked if WN ever wanted the planes back. But do we know the current status of the lease? When does the initial lease end and when will DL extend the lease (if not already extended)?

I believe DL is basically leasing-to-own them.

DeSpringbokke wrote:

I guess the retirement of thirteen M88s, instead of the initially planned seven, is part of the accelerated plan to have them out of the fleet by 2020. So will Delta have them all out by the end of 2020 or by 2020? Only narrowbody aircraft being delivered in 2020 is the CSeries, per the 10-K. Not given is the total number scheduled to arrive in 2020. (First forty arrive in 2018/2019). The capacity scheduled to be delivered in 2018-2019 in the A321s/739s is roughly the same as the capacity of the 103 M88s that will be in the fleet going into next year.

Using some rough math: By 2019, there's 4 738 (+640 seats), 47 739 (+8460) and 65 321 (+12480) joining the fleet; 7 320 (-1050) and 4 757 (-720) are scheduled for retirement. The MD-88 represent 17,284 seats, so that's a gain of over 2,500 -- the equivalent of nearly 17 MD-88. And that doesn't even consider the CS100 or cabin reconfigurations.

ehaase wrote:

The MD90's and A320's are roughly 7 years on average younger than the MD88's, so I would think Delta wouldn't start replacing them until around 2025. Around 2030, I would guess Delta will start replacing 717's and 737-800's.

Age isn't the sole factor. As DL is the sole operator of a relatively small fleet of MD-90, compliance costs and maintenance costs (re: scarcity of parts) will come into play. I would generally expect the next major wave of retirements to include the older 320 & 757 and the MD-90, probably between 2020-2025, depending on the economic environment.

You can more than likely expect more of the older A320 s to be phased out in 2018 and 2019.

Also do we know what the other 6 aircraft are to be phased out besides the 7 that were mentioned earlier?

akelley728 wrote:

American 767 wrote:

And what about the 717s and the MD-90s? Are those still staying? I know this topic is all about the MD-88 at Delta, but the 717 and the MD-90 are derivatives of the 88.

The main reason the MD-88s are being phased out is that P&W is no longer supporting the JT8D-219 engine. The MD-90 and 717 using the more modern V2500 and RR BR715 engines respectively, which will be both supported for decades to come by their respective manufacturers.

When AA voided their service contract with Pratt, it raised the cost of support tremendously for DL. DL did a cost benefit analysis and it was cheaper to buy a bunch of parts than keep the fleet supported.

DL thought there would be more parts from American. But American is running low on certain parts, so their flying fleet is sustained by scavenging the retired fleet for good parts, but only for parts that make sense. This created an early shortage/high prices for those parts. The whole MD-80 fleet is having to pay elevated service costs.

It's not just the engines. But engine parts are hot and many must be replaced every overhaul. When Boeing canceled the vendor contracts, so did Pratt. That makes parts 3X to 5X their prior price. That hurts MD-80 economics.

Lightsaber

compensateme wrote:

Using some rough math: By 2019, there's 4 738 (+640 seats), 47 739 (+8460) and 65 321 (+12480) joining the fleet; 7 320 (-1050) and 4 757 (-720) are scheduled for retirement. The MD-88 represent 17,284 seats, so that's a gain of over 2,500 -- the equivalent of nearly 17 MD-88. And that doesn't even consider the CS100 or cabin reconfigurations.

Age isn't the sole factor. As DL is the sole operator of a relatively small fleet of MD-90, compliance costs and maintenance costs (re: scarcity of parts) will come into play. I would generally expect the next major wave of retirements to include the older 320 & 757 and the MD-90, probably between 2020-2025, depending on the economic environment.

So do you think the current narrow body orders are sufficient to replace all these aircraft through 2025, or do you see another narrow body order sometime in the early 2020's after Delta has received all the 739's, 321's, and C series on order? I do admire Delta's aircraft acquisition strategy, trying to keep debt at a minimum.

ty97 wrote:

deltal1011man wrote:

Both are hanging around. As said in this thread, the 90s are getting mods done again. The company is studying if they want to do a PTV/AVOD mod or not.

not long ago Bastian said internally they would be around for at least another decade.

I'd assume the 717 is in the same ball park if not a little longer.

IIRC, DL signed a 5 year sublease from WN for the 717s and DL does not own them. Of course, I'd be shocked if WN ever wanted the planes back. But do we know the current status of the lease? When does the initial lease end and when will DL extend the lease (if not already extended)?

DL's subleases ends when WNs leases ends.

but as pointed out by Polot, DL is leasing to own.

Also FWIW the 3 ex-SAS frames are owned by DL.

ehaase wrote:

So do you think the current narrow body orders are sufficient to replace all these aircraft through 2025, or do you see another narrow body order sometime in the early 2020's after Delta has received all the 739's, 321's, and C series on order? I do admire Delta's aircraft acquisition strategy, trying to keep debt at a minimum.

In developed markets, think of demand growing at roughly the rate of GDP growth. If AA/DL/UA go all in on capacity discipline and don't grow for ~8 years, they'll be giving up a lot of growth (5-10+% annually, and compounded) to AS/B6/Spirit and Allegiant, which will gain network effects they don't necessarily enjoy today.

I've said before that the MD-90s and 717s, unlike the 757s, will not fly a majority of airframes to age 30. The cost problems that MD-88 maintenance has today because vendors dropped out? They'll be magnified across even smaller pools of in-service 717s and MD-90s across an even narrower operator base. Yes, I'm confident there will be another Delta narrowbody order within five years. Whether that's 3 orders of 30 or a single big order, who knows?

MIflyer12 wrote:

ehaase wrote:

So do you think the current narrow body orders are sufficient to replace all these aircraft through 2025, or do you see another narrow body order sometime in the early 2020's after Delta has received all the 739's, 321's, and C series on order? I do admire Delta's aircraft acquisition strategy, trying to keep debt at a minimum.

In developed markets, think of demand growing at roughly the rate of GDP growth. If AA/DL/UA go all in on capacity discipline and don't grow for ~8 years, they'll be giving up a lot of growth (5-10+% annually, and compounded) to AS/B6/Spirit and Allegiant, which will gain network effects they don't necessarily enjoy today.

I've said before that the MD-90s and 717s, unlike the 757s, will not fly a majority of airframes to age 30. The cost problems that MD-88 maintenance has today because vendors dropped out? They'll be magnified across even smaller pools of in-service 717s and MD-90s across an even narrower operator base. Yes, I'm confident there will be another Delta narrowbody order within five years. Whether that's 3 orders of 30 or a single big order, who knows?

The vendor problems DL is having is with Pratt and the JT8D more so than anything on the airframe itself.

The BR715 and V2500s will both stay in-production for a while and be supported long after that.

I know this will sound strange to say, but even though the fleet ranges in age of 23-30 years, the MD88 retirement somehow seems premature.

Maybe because it was the final version of arguably the last true classic airliner in a sea of A320/737/EJets. The last truly successful low bypass, T-tail design. Arguably last successful MD product.

Maybe because in the very recent history, Delta did full cabin refurbs, began installing aerodynamic improvements, blue LED lights, and signing a contract for flightdeck upgrades. All the while the former CEO touted how the aircraft was profitable to operate at $100 barrel prices. Maybe it's the astonishing high cycle limits for which even the oldest frames are nowhere near yet.

Or maybe it's just too hard to accept, as this is undoubtedly the deathnail for the MD80. But I'll bet some of these frames would've been active to 2025 had the third-party parts support not dissolved.

MIflyer12 wrote:

ehaase wrote:

So do you think the current narrow body orders are sufficient to replace all these aircraft through 2025, or do you see another narrow body order sometime in the early 2020's after Delta has received all the 739's, 321's, and C series on order? I do admire Delta's aircraft acquisition strategy, trying to keep debt at a minimum.

In developed markets, think of demand growing at roughly the rate of GDP growth. If AA/DL/UA go all in on capacity discipline and don't grow for ~8 years, they'll be giving up a lot of growth (5-10+% annually, and compounded) to AS/B6/Spirit and Allegiant, which will gain network effects they don't necessarily enjoy today.

I've said before that the MD-90s and 717s, unlike the 757s, will not fly a majority of airframes to age 30. The cost problems that MD-88 maintenance has today because vendors dropped out? They'll be magnified across even smaller pools of in-service 717s and MD-90s across an even narrower operator base. Yes, I'm confident there will be another Delta narrowbody order within five years. Whether that's 3 orders of 30 or a single big order, who knows?

100% agree that the MD-90 and 717 will not have the service life of the MD-80. However, just for completeness, Boeing paid vendors to ensure a long 717 life already. The payments modified contracts.

I do think DL will replace both the 717s and MD-90s with an order within 5 years. With a 3 way competition, DL will bid all three airframers against each other as well as CFM vs. Pratt for a very low cost deal. I see by 2019 new narrowbodies coming off the line faster than the market needs. So a large order would be welcome and greeted with good discounts.

Which plane DL orders will not matter. NEO, MAX, or C-series. Now, I expect DL to split the order, but that depends on pricing. I do not expect availability to be an issue. Of course the service contract will be heavily negotiated and will play a role as DL likes to make money there too...

Lightsaber

DeltaMD95 wrote:

I know this will sound strange to say, but even though the fleet ranges in age of 23-30 years, the MD88 retirement somehow seems premature.

Maybe because it was the final version of arguably the last true classic airliner in a sea of A320/737/EJets. The last truly successful low bypass, T-tail design. Arguably last successful MD product.

Maybe because in the very recent history, Delta did full cabin refurbs, began installing aerodynamic improvements, blue LED lights, and signing a contract for flightdeck upgrades. All the while the former CEO touted how the aircraft was profitable to operate at $100 barrel prices. Maybe it's the astonishing high cycle limits for which even the oldest frames are nowhere near yet.

Or maybe it's just too hard to accept, as this is undoubtedly the deathnail for the MD80. But I'll bet some of these frames would've been active to 2025 had the third-party parts support not dissolved.

I disagree. You do know a MD-80 burns more fuel than a 738 and carries fewer people? Maintenance costs are higher due to shorter intervals. This pushed MD-80s to low utilization/high RASM duty.

Due to the NEO and MAX, old plane resale has made the A319 or 737NG/A320 a better money maker in low utilization duty. For example, G4 has found the better reliability and lower costs allow higher utilization of the Airbus. It isn't just cost of parts. Much is the natural aging of competing airframes into the same niche.

Thee rapid growth in Asia elevated new airframe pricing and thus kept the MD-80 viable for longer than it should have.

Let us also not forget the E2-195. For many potential MD-80 operators, the improved economics of that plane make it an outstanding MD-80 replacement. I'm not aware of a previous time where there were four excellent replacements for a type. (I group NEO/CEO and MAX/NG). As Allegiant has shown, if the per hour economics improve enough, growth comes by more flight hours per day per airframe.

In no way would the MD-80 make a profit in 2025 when about 40% of the narrowbody fleet will be new engine types. It will take until 2020 or 2021 for the improved economics of new engine types to effect the market, but we'll see the impact soon enough (it takes over 20% of the fleet being the new improved versions to alter profits).

Parts are accelerating the retirement, by a year or so. Recall AA received an outstanding A319 deal that made MD-80 retirement a benefit. DL certainly received a deal on the C-series. G4 is finding used Airbus a bargain. So are other MD-80 operators.

Heck, look at how great a deal Allegiant had on new A320CEOs as CFM needed more backlog as did Airbus due to NEO delays.

Lightsaber

Just an FYI, even though Delta looked into cockpit upgrades for the MD88 and MD90, the Manufacturer could not come thru with the design. Multitude of issues, so the plan was scrapped. Then the upgraded FMS plan was scrapped. Then the super98 program was scrapped. Why, because with all these hundreds of millions of dollars that would have been spent, they decided that the reliability of the airplane was not meeting their aggressive expectations.
They instituted an aggressive program to meet scheduled departure and arrival times. This has to do with brand performance.
Between all of the engine changes and other assorted delays, they decided to start retiring the airplane. Of course, this coincided with the decision to purchase the C-series aircraft.

There were 5 DL Mad Dogs at PHL before Noon this morning (and one Mad Dog-Lite-- 717)

OK, from the DL thread we know 13 will retire this year.
AA is retiring the fleet late this year.

Does anyone else know the MD-80 retirement schedule for other airlines? G4? (Any more planned for 2017?).

I look on Airfleets and the fleet is static. I'm just trying to get a better understanding.

Lightsaber

LightSaber, I'm not sure that I buy your notion that the MD-90 and 717 will retire so quickly. While I agree that making it a full 30+ years for each will be quite a longshot, I have always been given to understand that the most expensive wear item on airliners is the engines first and foremost. Since those airliners share those same engines with other high number airframes of similar and newer vintage, I don't see engine life being as big of a problem for the 90 and 717 over the next 10 years as it has been for the 88/83/80s.

What other major maintenance item is going to drive up their cost per hour to operate to the point where it makes sense to park them? As I understand it, the 90 is not unbearably fuel inefficient, and that the 717 is actually reasonably competitive in that regard. Fuel prices would have to rise rather drastically to make that a factor on frames that are fully owned (or soon will be). I don't really see an aircraft that would make a major upgrade to the MD-90 coming along until Bombardier green lights the CS-500. The A320neo may be more fuel efficient, but it's not by an immense amount, and not enough to warrant replacing the md-90 prior to the end of its useful life, same goes for the MAX800. Once it gets to that last D check, then the finances may look differently. The same could be said for the 717 with respect to the CS-100.

LightningZ71 wrote:

LightSaber, I'm not sure that I buy your notion that the MD-90 and 717 will retire so quickly. While I agree that making it a full 30+ years for each will be quite a longshot, I have always been given to understand that the most expensive wear item on airliners is the engines first and foremost. Since those airliners share those same engines with other high number airframes of similar and newer vintage, I don't see engine life being as big of a problem for the 90 and 717 over the next 10 years as it has been for the 88/83/80s.

What other major maintenance item is going to drive up their cost per hour to operate to the point where it makes sense to park them? As I understand it, the 90 is not unbearably fuel inefficient, and that the 717 is actually reasonably competitive in that regard. Fuel prices would have to rise rather drastically to make that a factor on frames that are fully owned (or soon will be). I don't really see an aircraft that would make a major upgrade to the MD-90 coming along until Bombardier green lights the CS-500. The A320neo may be more fuel efficient, but it's not by an immense amount, and not enough to warrant replacing the md-90 prior to the end of its useful life, same goes for the MAX800. Once it gets to that last D check, then the finances may look differently. The same could be said for the 717 with respect to the CS-100.

It is the new electric maintenance tracking. The LEAP engines have it as well as the C-series. That cuts maintenance of newer types.

We shouldn't benchmark useful life, but rather economic life. My prediction is the new airframes are being over-produced. Boeing, Airbus, Bombardier, COMAC, and Irkut with discount to 'keep the lights on.' This will depress the used prices of the A320 and 738.

It is those airframes that compete with the 717 and MD-90, not new builds. Volotea is rotating 717s out of the fleet for used A319s as it drops their overall costs. DL will have either the option to rotate their current 738s to low utilization duty and use say -8MAX or new A321NEO, or many other options.

It is a cost/benefit analysis. I didn't say today. Wait for a few years. Used value of airframes has really dropped. That changes when the optimum replacement time is.

Engines are expensive, but they are also very expensive to maintain. New engines are good for 20,000 cycles between overhauls. The 717 (IIRC) 8k, the MD-90, older V2500s, should probably be 14k. Since overhauls are a high fraction of engine costs... I do see replacement.

Let's be clear, Allegiant just bought (but hasn't received) new A320CEOs were the engines were discounted below the cost of an overhaul from what I can best determine from my rumor mill. CFM didn't lose money either! (Yes, they make that much profit on an overhaul.) CFM needed to keep in production to avoid paying vendors penalties, so the profit was avoiding a loss...

Engines are about half the maintenance costs. That has been true a long time. If old airframes cost that much less to operate, their resale values would be higher. What matches is the cost per flight hour.

It will take a few years, but we'll see the DL order. Not this year. Not next year. But in 2019 to 2021, we'll see the order to replace the MD-90s and within a year or so the 717s. Notice I said order. It will take years to phase out either type, so not an instant change.

But look at DL rotating out A320s. They're not bad planes, it is just that newer is more economical. 738s and A321s will replace them and no one is worried. Eventually, DL will be offered a great deal. It could be sooner. Heck, if Airbus/CFM decide to sell a few more A320CEOs, we could see DL pick them up (V2500 has done better on the A321 and will continue on the KC-390, so less need to keep selling for Pratt with that engine).

Lightsaber

Some of the MD-80 series being retired are being phased out first at airports like LGA where noise is a critical issue due to local pressure, populated areas nearby.

ltbewr wrote:

Some of the MD-80 series being retired are being phased out first at airports like LGA where noise is a critical issue due to local pressure, populated areas nearby.

That's not retirement, they are just being moved. You won't see a single frame parked just because of LGA.

lightsaber wrote:

AA is retiring the fleet late this year.

AA's 2017 fleet plan gives a reprieve to the MD80. Originally, the last of the AA MD-80s were supposed to retire this year, but the 2017 fleet plan indicates that 32 MD-80s will remain at year-end 2017 (That's the remaining fleet at year end after AA retires 25 MD-80s during 2017). I would assume those remaining planes all retire in 2018.

The 717 is not going away soon. DL is just now ramping up an in house engine overhaul line for the type. They would not have invested in this just to get out of the airframe in a few years.