Please continue your discussion and to post your updates here.

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VX to begin SFO-MSY on 9/21 with A320.

There will now be three daily nonstops to the Bay Area from MSY, which is the most in over thirty years.

This is great news. Glad to see AS/VX adding another destination, and providing some competition to UA on the SFO route. I'd say the Bay Area is now adequately served with 3 carriers flying to region.

Great to finally see VX at MSY. SFO was our #7 largest market last year, beating ATL. Definitely taking advantages of the ground staff with this flight. I would imagine the same people will operate the VX flight, which departs at 4pm, and then go handle check-in and boarding for the SEA flight which arrives at 6:20pm and departs at 7:20.

I hope UA changes their schedule for the SFO flight, which currently is pretty close to the VX timings. IIRC UA had an early morning departure to SFO with a late night arrival, which would provide a nice alternative and maximize connections.

I do think we'll be on the next major PDX expansion. The VX flight should provide an alternative for AS to capture some of that connecting traffic until then.

msycajun wrote:

Great to finally see VX at MSY. SFO was our #7 largest market last year, beating ATL. Definitely taking advantages of the ground staff with this flight. I would imagine the same people will operate the VX flight, which departs at 4pm, and then go handle check-in and boarding for the SEA flight which arrives at 6:20pm and departs at 7:20.

I hope UA changes their schedule for the SFO flight, which currently is pretty close to the VX timings. IIRC UA had an early morning departure to SFO with a late night arrival, which would provide a nice alternative and maximize connections.

I do think we'll be on the next major PDX expansion. The VX flight should provide an alternative for AS to capture some of that connecting traffic until then.

More flights = cost advantage for a small station. For what AS has in MSY...ticket counter with the same number of positions as B6 has (and they have up to 6 flights.day), large OPS office, plus a full-fledged BSO...for just one flight...I'm sure everyone involved is happy to see the service expansion.

I'd like to see the UA SFO flight go back to being a RON, as well. For a time it was also a red-eye. I flew it once inbound.

PDX will probably happen, but a second SEA or even LAX wouldn't shock me if those came first.

March Service Update posted:
http://www.flymsy.com/Images/Interior/air_service/march2017airserviceupdate.pdf

jbs2886 wrote:

msycajun wrote:

March Service Update posted:
http://www.flymsy.com/Images/Interior/air_service/march2017airserviceupdate.pdf

I wish they would update the Alaska logo, it bothers me Also, its Virgin America flying to SFO, not Alaska.

The folks at NOLA.com didn't even realize it was VX flying the route until I messaged them.

Maybe I have to do the same in this case?

So, what's next?



DL/AM have written numerous times that MSY-MEX was slated to return, should they form a J/V, which they have.

I'd love to see AC launch (a weekly) YUL?
I'm sorta surprised it hasn't happened yet.

I'd really love to see what happens with FRA if DE does well. They're only going to fly 44 MSY-FRA ops for the whole of the year. But if it's popular, I wonder if Lufty might toss a leisure A343 on the route, and push them off?

I'd be happy to see DE go year-round or at least more than summer. It would be great for a Thanksgiving/winter/spring break trip from our end and of course MSY's inbound tourism is strongest during the fall and spring.

MEX should definitely be at the top of the list for us. Not only is it a pretty large O&D/business market, but it's a huge Skyteam hub and would allow for less backtracking to other Mexican and Central American cities. Of course the political situation complicates this and pretty much all international flying.

I'd love to get WS back. Perhaps 1-2 weekly YYC and YUL (since they're expanding there) and 3-4 weekly YYZ would be a great mix.

Domestically PDX is the only large hub continental US airport that lacks service. Apart from that I think less exciting stuff like getting daily service to PIT and RDU and maybe CVG/CMH/IND will be good for MSY. Then G4 could move those flights to other markets. I think something like NK to BDL or F9/WN to MKE could also do well. I expect to see more NK expansion, maybe adding CUN and some other international routes plus more domestic (PHL, MSP, DEN, PHX, PIT, or SAN)

I wonder if Choice Aire might consider tossing in a weekly TGU and/or LCE for the VFR traffic?

If a second SEA flight were added, would it be by Alaska or Delta? Shouldn't DL be looking at this route as new frames become available?

LAX772LR wrote:

I wonder if Choice Aire might consider tossing in a weekly TGU and/or LCE for the VFR traffic?

I've heard Choice Aire is getting a reputation for poor reliability. They've had several cancellations lately.

Can confirm, they are missing about as much as they are making it.

I'd rather see a network carrier fly to Honduras anyway. NK does IAH-SAP 3 weekly and WN has started doing less than daily stuff as well. Both carriers would have the benefit of some connections on the MSY end.

I'd really love to see TACA/Avianca back on the route, more than anything.

LAX772LR wrote:

So, what's next?

On the domestic side,

As stated earlier, PDX is the last major market without non-stop service. I fully expect to see that added by AS in the next couple of years. I also think we'll see DL enter the fray with a SEA route announcement sooner rather than later.

Hopefully, WN will find success at RDU, PIT, and CMH and go daily with the routes by next year once the airline goes through the transitioning to the 737 MAX.

I suspect we'll see G4 try some more markets like BUF, OKC, or RFD. I've got to give them credit for being bold enough to start up routes and see if they work or not.

F9 is kind of a wild card to me. I'm not sure if they will maintain what they have or add more destinations down the road.

GLO is also a wild card. Let's see if they manage to make a profit this year before making any guesses on new destinations.

I don't see B6, UA, or AA adding any new destinations in the next couple of years, but I am willing to be pleasantly surprised.

On the international side,

I fully agree with the sentiment that NK would be preferable over Choice Aire if they are having so many cancellations. A 3x weekly flight to SAP would probably work fine to match demand. Given the number of destinations now served by NK from MSY, some connecting opportunities likely exist that NK could capitalize on.

DE rarely flies year round, but it would be great to see them start service earlier next year. Maybe in March instead of May and then extend it further into October. Winter is the slow season for European travel, so I don't see them flying here from November to February even with Mardi Gras added into the mix. It would also be great if they went to 4x weekly next year. Honestly, I think we may see Norwegian eventually adding us a destination, and that will influence any decisions made by DE or the likes of AF/KL and LH.

Of course, BA going daily would be great, and I suspect we'll see that sooner rather than later.

Would love to see YUL as a new route from AC. My preference would be to switch out the YYZ regional jet for mainline service, and then throw that RJ on the YUL route.

WS to YYC or YVR would be great, but I won't be holding my breath on that.

The growth experienced in terms of airlines and destinations the last couple of years has been amazing when you think about it, and is a true testament to the hard working team there at MSY. Kudos to them!

At what point does MSY become more of a regional hub than an O&D destination? I realize that not even WN has enough traffic in and out to really make it a hub, but at some point, there must be enough traffic at the airport to make it a layover point.

I believe that is the goal of the new terminal building. It will allow easy connections without having to clear a TSA checkpoint again. WN already has some connections occur at MSY, and that may increase in the new terminal, but it will not likely be a top 10 station for WN.

NK is the closest to a significant station for an airline that we have. In terms of total destinations, MSY is tied for 10th largest station with CLE and RSW. However, when looking at year-round served destinations, MSY moves up to 9th largest station between BWI and TPA/DEN. If NK continues to see success here, I would expect our station to continue to grow in importance for the carrier.

NK top 10 stations by total and year round destinations...sorted by year round destinations

Airport.......Total........Year-Round
FLL.............50..............47
MCO...........22..............21
LAS............20..............19
DFW...........21..............18
IAH.............20..............17
LAX............17..............17
DTW...........21..............16
ORD...........21...............15
ATL............17...............15
BWI............18..............13
MSY...........11...............11
TPA............13...............8
DEN............10..............8

How is Copa Airlines doing at MSY and what market do they serve?

AFAIK, they just fly to Panama city right now. Since they downgagued to the E series, they seem to have been carrying decent passenger loads.

If you look at WN's schedule throughout the day they have basically a dozen or so "mini-banks" when 3-5 flights arrive and depart and each one usually has a couple of connecting opportunities. I think the new terminal will help with that, especially have the international area not in a separate security area.

NK also does a few connections and also some through flights (FLL-MSY-IAH and CLE-MSY-MCO, for example).

The good news is that any adds by these carriers bolsters the connections and makes more routes attractive.

Another potential factor could be if GLO expands and starts codesharing like Silver Airways does. Or if Silver itself starts service.

NichCage wrote:

How is Copa Airlines doing at MSY and what market do they serve?

Copa is doing relatively fine with load factors at MSY near systemwide averages for CM. They fly a mix of E190 and 737 aircraft based on time of year.

NolaMD88fan wrote:

I believe that is the goal of the new terminal building. It will allow easy connections without having to clear a TSA checkpoint again. WN already has some connections occur at MSY, and that may increase in the new terminal

Not really sure how the new terminal affects that, since there's really nothing impeding WN's expansion even now, if they wanted to do so. There's still space/gates in B for them to add dozens of flights.

msycajun wrote:

Another potential factor could be if GLO expands and starts codesharing like Silver Airways does. Or if Silver itself starts service.

IINM, didn't Silver actually announce NOLA, and then bow out at the last minute? ...or am I imagining that? Maybe it was BTR?

LAX772LR wrote:

NolaMD88fan wrote:

I believe that is the goal of the new terminal building. It will allow easy connections without having to clear a TSA checkpoint again. WN already has some connections occur at MSY, and that may increase in the new terminal

Not really sure how the new terminal affects that, since there's really nothing impeding WN's expansion even now, if they wanted to do so. There's still space/gates in B for them to add dozens of flights.

msycajun wrote:

Another potential factor could be if GLO expands and starts codesharing like Silver Airways does. Or if Silver itself starts service.

IINM, didn't Silver actually announce NOLA, and then bow out at the last minute? ...or am I imagining that? Maybe it was BTR?

I was thinking long term...like in the next 5 to 10 years in terms of WN airlines growth.

Silver did announce with flights to BHM, PNS, and JAX, but they pulled out just before launch back in 2015.

The aviation board meeting was today, so lots of updates:

January Stats here, up a nice 6.8% year-over-year:
http://www.flymsy.com/Files/Press/January_2017_Statistics.pdf


Terminal Expansion gets the green light:
http://www.flymsy.com/press-room/New-Orleans-Aviation-Board-Votes-to-Expand-and-Finance-Louis-Armstrong-New-Orleans-International-Airport-North-Terminal-Project?&Sort=

Today, the New Orleans Aviation Board (NOAB) formally voted to expand and finance the Louis Armstrong New Orleans International Airport North Terminal Project, bringing the total number of gates from 30 to 35. The five gate expansion and new opening date – February 2019 – comes as the airport has exceeded all passenger enplanement targets and added new international airlift to Europe and South America. The five-gate expansion and other implementation expenses add approximately $178 million to the project, bringing the overall total to $993 million.

Construction on the new terminal is underway and proceeding on schedule. The design and environmental review processes for the five gate expansion are expected to be complete this spring. Rather than open the airport in a staggered, phased basis which could cause logistical issues, the decision was made to open the new facility together in February 2019.

n total, the approximately 972,000 square-foot terminal will feature 35 gates, a 2,190-car parking garage, a central utility plant and a ground transportation staging area. Portions of the existing facility, including the parking garages, will also be repurposed and used as part of the new airport complex.

To put that in perspective, the terminal was originally proposed to be 650k sf and later expanded to 760k sf.

Glad to see the terminal opening pushed back to February 2019. From a logistical standpoint, it makes more sense to just open the whole thing at the same time. The added size of the new international wing is likely due to not only widebody capable gates, but hopefully some additional retail, dining, and lounge options.

The airport was ranked 38th busiest in the nation between RSW and SJC in January. Good to see continued growth. Looks like the second AC flight did well...especially on the deplanement side. Must be snowbirds coming down for the winter months.

Airport........Jan
RSW........892,905
MSY........ 859,736
SJC........ 848,117

http://www.flylcpa.com/uploads/pagesfiles/2258.pdf
http://www.flymsy.com/Files/Press/Janua ... istics.pdf
http://www.flysanjose.com/fl/about/activity/Jan17CY.pdf

Having seen a sketch of the extension, it is visually an extension of the existing plans, leaving it long and narrow. There doesn't look to be much space for anything more than snack carts and smaller accessory shops.

LightningZ71 wrote:

Having seen a sketch of the extension

Sorta surprised that they didn't include a rendering with any of these announcements.

Some items aren't finalized and they seem reluctant to release proposed designs for public consumption. I can't really blame them. The design isn't groundbreaking though, just imagine the west end of the main terminal section extended west a but with a handful of jet ways attached to it.

Taking this with a large grain of salt, I heard that Delta has brought people in to MSY from other stations to support market for new routes to be announced in April, including MSY-SEA, MSY-SAN and MSY-BOS. I'm skeptical of SAN given the number of DL dailies to LAX, but thought I'd pass this along.

I've been wondering if we'd see some action from DL. AA is growing and could overtake DL if trends hold, plus they've got partner BA coming soon. SEA and BOS make sense in light of goals to add flights in those markets. I'd like to see a return of RDU and CVG as well. SAN seems unlikely, but who knows. I think a flight to MEX on either DL or AM would round things out nicely out of MSY.

BOS and SEA would not be surprising at all. SEA is a hub and BOS is a large focus city for DL. Given the new competition for international traffic, it makes sense to add service to another two gateway airports for the carrier. I could see a B737 on the SEA route, and a A319 on the BOS flight to start. SAN would definitely be a wildcard if that occurred. Maybe it's a move against AS to keep them off the route. Agreed that it would be great to see DL re-start the RDU flight.

By the way, the "support market" should be "support marketing". Might make a little more sense that way. The individual told me that DL was starting 17 new flights out of MSY, but I have no real way to gauge that. Also said that with the coming of BA that the only think left was Asian service and that NOLA had seen huge jumps in foreign tourists from Europe and Asia.

Nola wrote:

By the way, the "support market" should be "support marketing". Might make a little more sense that way. The individual told me that DL was starting 17 new flights out of MSY, but I have no real way to gauge that. Also said that with the coming of BA that the only think left was Asian service and that NOLA had seen huge jumps in foreign tourists from Europe and Asia.

17? That would seem like a lot. I'm having trouble coming up with that many unless DL adds some p2p service and dukes it out with ULCCs. I can see the following being added, at some point, considering how large DL is in the following markets...

SEA (1x 319)
RDU (1 or 2x CR7/9)
BOS (1X E75)
CVG (1x CR7/9)

Maybe add a 2nd frequency to SLC?
Perhaps have CUN switch to daily service?

I can't really think of any logical adds for DL besides those, but Id be happy to be proven wrong!

The fact that Asia service was mentioned makes it seem less reliable, unless they were talking about using SEA to connect more people to Asia.

It's hard to imagine 17 flights in the next few years, but maybe long term. If you add the routes mentioned above, MEX, CDG/AMS, more frequency to SLC and MSP, and maybe some business markets like DCA or ORD. DL used to serve MCO, so maybe that's also a possibility.

I'd assume they meant direct Asia long term (I can think of at least 8 cities that would probably get a direct Asia link before we would) but connections over SEA make sense.

I personally know a handful of people that live and work in the New Orleans area that work in the shipping and industrial equipment industries that make regular trips to Asia (at least once a quarter), so it's not exactly beyond the realm of possibility.

At some point, there will be enough traffic through KMSY that airlines will start to build connections through here to take some of the load off of their bussier hubs. It may not be tomorrow, but, the traffic has been steadily growing, and eventually, it will reach that critical mass. I am under no illusions that it will ever be anything more than a regional hub and maybe a cross country stopping point for flights from Florida to the west coast and back, but it will be nice to see the extra traffic.

I assume the 17 flights meant increased frequency to several destinations and new frequency to others. The Asia comment was more along the lines that a foreign carrier might try to make Nola a destination, not DL. There was also a concern that BA was going to mint money on the LHR route. I really have no way to gauge the discussion. The speaker wasn't wearing a DL ID but knew enough about the system and FF program to make themselves plausibly be an employee on a temporary transfer to work marketing for the new flights. Then again, it may have been a load of..... they were the first to mention DL when I asked what/how long they were here.

It's hard to tell with that sort of thing, but most people don't go around making up stuff like that with specific numbers. I wonder if the time frame is more for the new terminal. Will they have room to add many more flights with the current gates? They already use some C gates during busy periods.

LightningZ71 wrote:

I personally know a handful of people that live and work in the New Orleans area that work in the shipping and industrial equipment industries that make regular trips to Asia (at least once a quarter), so it's not exactly beyond the realm of possibility.

Shipping isn't really a reliable industry for gauging Asian traffic demand though.

MIA/FLL (as well as PTY) see a ton of Asian pax traffic due to their ports (workers repatriating) and cruises, but nothing sufficient to attract an (east) Asian carrier, even with large hubs in place.

I know UA gave up signatory rights to gate D11, so DL could start using that gate if they want too. It's all in the recently updated airport competition plan. http://www.flymsy.com/Files/Publication ... 1.6.17.pdf

Whomever Nola talked too is likely right about BA making mint on their route. I think Condor has to be pleased as well. Our flight to FRA only has 4 J class seats left out of 18 total, and we're over 3 months out from the trip. The Asia comment seems to just be a general observation of the market more than anything.

I would love to know if the 17 new depatures is a daily or weekly number. If it's a weekly number that would make way more sense. The 4 new destinations alone would be 16 new weekly departures.

NolaMD88fan wrote:

The 4 new destinations alone would be 16 new weekly departures.

...wouldn't that be 28?

Ugh...you are correct. Ignore my midnight shift brain not functioning properly once again. You would never know I took 8 semesters of math in college based on that last reply. So, that throws out my idea that it could be 17 new weekly flights. 17 new daily flights seems like a really huge build-up. I'm having a hard time figuring out where those planes will be flying.

LAX772LR wrote:

LightningZ71 wrote:

I personally know a handful of people that live and work in the New Orleans area that work in the shipping and industrial equipment industries that make regular trips to Asia (at least once a quarter), so it's not exactly beyond the realm of possibility.

Shipping isn't really a reliable industry for gauging Asian traffic demand though.

MIA/FLL (as well as PTY) see a ton of Asian pax traffic due to their ports (workers repatriating) and cruises, but nothing sufficient to attract an (east) Asian carrier, even with large hubs in place.

East being the key there. A major reason for QR a MIA and EK at FLL is absolutely that exact traffic.

NolaMD88fan wrote:

So, that throws out my idea that it could be 17 new weekly flights.

Still plausible... that's only 2 dailies + 3 Saturday flights, or something of that nature.

Could be something like:
Daily SEA, daily BOS, Saturday RDU, Saturday SAN, Saturday xxx.

There'd be your 17/wk, right there.