Australian Aviation - March 2017

eta unknown · Mon Mar 13, 2017 6:44 am

[quote="qf789"]AirNorth will increase flights between Wellcamp and Melbourne from 8 May 17 from the current daily flight to 10 weekly. From June 17 this will increase to 12 weekly flights
Hmmm... how much is Wagner subsidising them?

In other news, QF has asked for its Taiwan capacity allocation to be withdrawn- unsure if this will affect their BR/CI codeshares.

smi0006 · Mon Mar 13, 2017 9:29 am

eta unknown wrote:
qf789 wrote:
AirNorth will increase flights between Wellcamp and Melbourne from 8 May 17 from the current daily flight to 10 weekly. From June 17 this will increase to 12 weekly flights
Hmmm... how much is Wagner subsidising them?

In other news, QF has asked for its Taiwan capacity allocation to be withdrawn- unsure if this will affect their BR/CI codeshares.

Why would they ask for it to be withdrawn? Would they need to if they wanted a higher allocation, and give it to JQ? TPE/ICN seem like good routes ex-MEL/BNE for JQ, SYD maybe saturated.

ZuluAlpha · Mon Mar 13, 2017 11:18 am

smi0006 wrote:
eta unknown wrote:
qf789 wrote:
AirNorth will increase flights between Wellcamp and Melbourne from 8 May 17 from the current daily flight to 10 weekly. From June 17 this will increase to 12 weekly flights
Hmmm... how much is Wagner subsidising them?

In other news, QF has asked for its Taiwan capacity allocation to be withdrawn- unsure if this will affect their BR/CI codeshares.

Why would they ask for it to be withdrawn? Would they need to if they wanted a higher allocation, and give it to JQ? TPE/ICN seem like good routes ex-MEL/BNE for JQ, SYD maybe saturated.

Would JQ have any flexibility in their 788 fleet if they were to commence flights to TPE / ICN ?

jupiter2 · Mon Mar 13, 2017 11:39 am

smi0006 wrote:
eta unknown wrote:
qf789 wrote:
AirNorth will increase flights between Wellcamp and Melbourne from 8 May 17 from the current daily flight to 10 weekly. From June 17 this will increase to 12 weekly flights
Hmmm... how much is Wagner subsidising them?

In other news, QF has asked for its Taiwan capacity allocation to be withdrawn- unsure if this will affect their BR/CI codeshares.

Why would they ask for it to be withdrawn? Would they need to if they wanted a higher allocation, and give it to JQ? TPE/ICN seem like good routes ex-MEL/BNE for JQ, SYD maybe saturated.

Not sure why you would think that SYD would be saturated, there is currently only a daily CI A333 ? Also fairly certain the only code share capacity QF have is on BR ex BNE.

getluv · Mon Mar 13, 2017 11:50 am

smi0006 wrote:
eta unknown wrote:

In other news, QF has asked for its Taiwan capacity allocation to be withdrawn- unsure if this will affect their BR/CI codeshares.

Why would they ask for it to be withdrawn? .

The determination that was affected were the codeshare seats offered though Jetstar Asia. The codeshare with CI remains unaffected.

Interestingly, the IASC is taking forever to approve AC codesharing on VA's trans-Tasman flights.

Obzerva · Tue Mar 14, 2017 1:17 am

jupiter2 wrote:
smi0006 wrote:
eta unknown wrote:

Why would they ask for it to be withdrawn? Would they need to if they wanted a higher allocation, and give it to JQ? TPE/ICN seem like good routes ex-MEL/BNE for JQ, SYD maybe saturated.

Not sure why you would think that SYD would be saturated, there is currently only a daily CI A333 ? Also fairly certain the only code share capacity QF have is on BR ex BNE.

QF currently codeshare on CI ex MEL/SYD/BNE

jupiter2 · Tue Mar 14, 2017 6:43 am

Obzerva wrote:
jupiter2 wrote:
smi0006 wrote:

Why would they ask for it to be withdrawn? Would they need to if they wanted a higher allocation, and give it to JQ? TPE/ICN seem like good routes ex-MEL/BNE for JQ, SYD maybe saturated.

Not sure why you would think that SYD would be saturated, there is currently only a daily CI A333 ? Also fairly certain the only code share capacity QF have is on BR ex BNE.

QF currently codeshare on CI ex MEL/SYD/BNE

Ok, obviously missed that one, thanks.

PA515 · Tue Mar 14, 2017 11:36 am

QF DHC-8 Q300 VH-SBJ (c/n 578) positioned TMW-BNE on 10 Mar 2017 after being in storage at TMW since 01 Apr 2015. It's now operating QF Link flights from BNE. There was a report on another forum a few months ago that VH-SBJ would be used as maintenance cover for the Jetstar Q300 fleet in New Zealand.

Apparently VH-SBW (c/n 599) will position BNE-TSV on Wed 15 Mar for a repaint. Will it be getting the Jetstar colours and heading for New Zealand?

PA515

zkojq · Tue Mar 14, 2017 3:46 pm

PA515 wrote:
Apparently VH-SBW (c/n 599) will position BNE-TSV on Wed 15 Mar for a repaint. Will it be getting the Jetstar colours and heading for New Zealand?

PA515

Yes, but its not due for a couple of months.

smi0006 · Wed Mar 15, 2017 3:02 am

NZ seasonal upgauge 3 days a week to a 789 ex-ADL. Should do well to the US & CA over the holidays.

https://www.ausbt.com.au/air-new-zealan ... e-auckland

qf789 · Wed Mar 15, 2017 3:10 am

QR to resume daily services to ADL from 2 Dec 17

http://www.routesonline.com/news/38/air ... -dec-2017/

kriskim · Wed Mar 15, 2017 10:41 pm

Google showing VA daily schedule for MEL-HKG and also x4 weekly SYD-HKG

VA087 MEL0940 – 1720HKG 332 D
VA086 HKG0135 – 0720+1MEL 332 D

qf789 · Wed Mar 15, 2017 10:52 pm

kriskim wrote:
Google showing VA daily schedule for MEL-HKG and also x4 weekly SYD-HKG

VA087 MEL0940 – 1720HKG 332 D
VA086 HKG0135 – 0720+1MEL 332 D

That schedule isn't right as the return flight is in 3 hrs and 45 minutes, I would say departure time is suppose to be 1935

ZK-NBT · Wed Mar 15, 2017 10:53 pm

kriskim wrote:
Google showing VA daily schedule for MEL-HKG and also x4 weekly SYD-HKG

VA087 MEL0940 – 1720HKG 332 D
VA086 HKG0135 – 0720+1MEL 332 D

The return timing is wrong you would arrive MEL more like 1300 with that departure time.

kriskim · Wed Mar 15, 2017 10:57 pm

oops sorry wrong timings:

VA087 MEL0940 – 1720HKG 332 D
VA086 HKG1950 – 0720+1MEL 332 D

Although I think its still abit off as the QF flight departs the same time, yet arrives at 8:15, so either the A332 flies faster than QF's 747's or VA knows something that we don't haha.

getluv · Wed Mar 15, 2017 11:15 pm

@kriskim, you didn't take into account daylight saving. QF30 arrives at 0740 in NS.

Flight times are similar.

tullamarine · Thu Mar 16, 2017 12:53 am

Google showing VA daily schedule for MEL-HKG and also x4 weekly SYD-HKG

Sounds likely but this would consume 2 of VA's A332s. I know they (and QF) are cutting back A330s on trans-continental services but this seems to leave them very slim.

Is it likely that they will acquire some more A330s? EY have RR powered A332s as does Hainan. Likewise SQ are starting to reduce its fleet of RR powered A333s as they replace them with A350s. Whilst A332s are more likely, the A333 would allow VA to consider a W class on its Asian services.

DeltaB717 · Thu Mar 16, 2017 1:45 am

tullamarine wrote:
Google showing VA daily schedule for MEL-HKG and also x4 weekly SYD-HKG

Sounds likely but this would consume 2 of VA's A332s. I know they (and QF) are cutting back A330s on trans-continental services but this seems to leave them very slim.

Is it likely that they will acquire some more A330s? EY have RR powered A332s as does Hainan. Likewise SQ are starting to reduce its fleet of RR powered A333s as they replace them with A350s. Whilst A332s are more likely, the A333 would allow VA to consider a W class on its Asian services.

Don't forget mainland China is coming as well, so anything more than 3x per week on SYD-China would push them up into a 3rd aircraft 'dedicated' to international operations. It would actually take less than that to push up to the 3rd aircraft if PEK is the mainland China port.

Perhaps the plan is to remove A330s from PER-BNE and have, say, 4 A330s operating on PER-SYD/MEL. I do agree, though, that A333s would give them some more flexibility on Asian services (and, potentially, depending on relative configuration) a per-seat cost advantage over the A33s as well.

eta unknown · Thu Mar 16, 2017 1:56 am

Wasn't MEL-HKG highlighted in a report in a recent thread as the Australian international route that has had the biggest yield decline? Not sure if it was all Australian routes operated by all airlines or just QF.

qf789 · Thu Mar 16, 2017 2:04 am

eta unknown wrote:
Wasn't MEL-HKG highlighted in a report in a recent thread as the Australian international route that has had the biggest yield decline? Not sure if it was all Australian routes operated by all airlines or just QF.

It's was for QF in Oct 16 and it was SYD-HKG not MEL-HKG

pzurita1 · Thu Mar 16, 2017 3:30 am

On a different subject, and related to a little spoken region, LATAM is starting flights to its second Australian destination, Melbourne. That all seems quite logical given the growth of traffic between the two countries.

However, when I read this article http://www.viaxico.com/5-most-popular-l ... australia/, I realized it is not Chile the largest Latin American market from Australia, but Mexico. According to the figures in such article, Australia - Mexico traffic is close to 50% larger that OZ-Chile. In fact, it is still larger than Chile + Argentina.

I know that geography plays a good deal in making nonstop services to Mexico almost imposible. Could we see a 3 weekly flight may be stopping at Fiji? I would very much prefer to make a stop in Fiji rather that a full connection in Los Angeles where now you have no idea if you are going to allowed entry. Seems far fetched, but it also seems there is a market. Article says this market is larger than Netherlands - Mexico served daily by KL and 3 or 4 weekly by AM.

Could we really see the Fiesta Route again?

LamboAston · Thu Mar 16, 2017 4:23 am

pzurita1 wrote:
On a different subject, and related to a little spoken region, LATAM is starting flights to its second Australian destination, Melbourne. That all seems quite logical given the growth of traffic between the two countries.

However, when I read this article http://www.viaxico.com/5-most-popular-l ... australia/, I realized it is not Chile the largest Latin American market from Australia, but Mexico. According to the figures in such article, Australia - Mexico traffic is close to 50% larger that OZ-Chile. In fact, it is still larger than Chile + Argentina.

I know that geography plays a good deal in making nonstop services to Mexico almost imposible. Could we see a 3 weekly flight may be stopping at Fiji? I would very much prefer to make a stop in Fiji rather that a full connection in Los Angeles where now you have no idea if you are going to allowed entry. Seems far fetched, but it also seems there is a market. Article says this market is larger than Netherlands - Mexico served daily by KL and 3 or 4 weekly by AM.

Could we really see the Fiesta Route again?

Or NZ through AKL on the premium 789s?

DeltaB717 · Thu Mar 16, 2017 5:28 am

LamboAston wrote:
pzurita1 wrote:
Could we really see the Fiesta Route again?

Or NZ through AKL on the premium 789s?

Doubtful, as it's a Skyteam hub on the other end.

log0008 · Thu Mar 16, 2017 6:10 am

Good news for domestic carriers (hopefully including VA) - all fare categories up

Australia’s Bureau of Infrastructure, Transport and Regional Economics (BITRE) released (15-Mar-2017) Domestic Air Fare Index for Mar-2017 which showed the ‘Best Discount Fare’ Index (Jul-2003 = 100) for domestic travel increased 48.9% year-on-year to 82.1 in Mar-2017. ‘Restricted economy’ was up 1.2% year-on-year and ‘Business class’ was up 0.8% year-on-year

zkncj · Thu Mar 16, 2017 6:13 am

DeltaB717 wrote:
LamboAston wrote:
pzurita1 wrote:
Could we really see the Fiesta Route again?

Or NZ through AKL on the premium 789s?

Doubtful, as it's a Skyteam hub on the other end.

Lack of an *A hub hasn't stopped NZ before, they have done pretty well out of EZE which isn't really an major SkyTeam Hub. NZ is known to play nice with people outside of *A as well (when they want too) for example they have an joint venture with CX.

An 789 on AKL-MEX could probably do pretty well of just local feed and Australian feed with the new 270 seat config.

smi0006 · Thu Mar 16, 2017 6:19 am

LamboAston wrote:
pzurita1 wrote:
On a different subject, and related to a little spoken region, LATAM is starting flights to its second Australian destination, Melbourne. That all seems quite logical given the growth of traffic between the two countries.

However, when I read this article http://www.viaxico.com/5-most-popular-l ... australia/, I realized it is not Chile the largest Latin American market from Australia, but Mexico. According to the figures in such article, Australia - Mexico traffic is close to 50% larger that OZ-Chile. In fact, it is still larger than Chile + Argentina.

I know that geography plays a good deal in making nonstop services to Mexico almost imposible. Could we see a 3 weekly flight may be stopping at Fiji? I would very much prefer to make a stop in Fiji rather that a full connection in Los Angeles where now you have no idea if you are going to allowed entry. Seems far fetched, but it also seems there is a market. Article says this market is larger than Netherlands - Mexico served daily by KL and 3 or 4 weekly by AM.

Could we really see the Fiesta Route again?

Or NZ through AKL on the premium 789s?

I belive NZ primary focus will be a hub between Asia and South America, and AU and NA. MEX is a little far north for Asian pax to detour, and I wouldn't have though yields would be high enough ex-AU/NZ/MX to justify the premium 789, nor loads high enough to warrant the leisure 789. But purely speculation so I could be wrong. But I think they will add another route or two next year, my bet would be ORD and LIM

jupiter2 · Thu Mar 16, 2017 6:21 am

Mexico maybe a fairly big market, but how many people are going to Mexico City as the obvious primary destination ? I would've thought that most Australians visiting Mexico would've been heading to the various resorts around the country rather than a single point. As such, LAX or even DFW would seem to be better transfer points than a direct flight to MEX and then onward on a domestic flight, not withstanding the obvious hassles of transferring through the U.S.A at present.

When MEX can sustain a direct flight primarily through business links, the transfer traffic to the resorts would fill the rest of the plane.

mariner · Thu Mar 16, 2017 6:28 am

jupiter2 wrote:
Mexico maybe a fairly big market, but how many people are going to Mexico City as the obvious primary destination ? I would've thought that most Australians visiting Mexico would've been heading to the various resorts around the country rather than a single point. As such, LAX or even DFW would seem to be better transfer points than a direct flight to MEX and then onward on a domestic flight, not withstanding the obvious hassles of transferring through the U.S.A at present.

For my money Mexico City is one of the great cities of the world, endlessly interesting and a wonderful introduction to the rest of the country. If I could get there directly (from NZ) I couldn't think of any good reason to go through the US.

mariner

qf789 · Thu Mar 16, 2017 6:52 am

FR24 has VA's HKG flights as 1 daily MEL (schedule listed above) and 1 daily SYD

Schedule for SYD

VA81 HKG1950-750+1SYD 332 D
VA82 SYD830-1510HKG 332 D

Also listed is a flight VA80 SYD-HKG however flight times make no sense due to a 135am departure from SYD
VA80 SYD135-815 HKG 332 D
No return flight is listed either

downdata · Thu Mar 16, 2017 7:41 am

qf789 wrote:
FR24 has VA's HKG flights as 1 daily MEL (schedule listed above) and 1 daily SYD

Schedule for SYD

VA81 HKG1950-750+1SYD 332 D
VA82 SYD830-1510HKG 332 D

Also listed is a flight VA80 SYD-HKG however flight times make no sense due to a 135am departure from SYD
VA80 SYD135-815 HKG 332 D
No return flight is listed either

Maybe SYD convinced the goverment to remove the curfew

qf002 · Thu Mar 16, 2017 7:50 am

Doing double daily to HKG makes far more sense than doing one flight to HKG and one to mainland China.

smi0006 · Thu Mar 16, 2017 7:56 am

qf789 wrote:
FR24 has VA's HKG flights as 1 daily MEL (schedule listed above) and 1 daily SYD

Schedule for SYD

VA81 HKG1950-750+1SYD 332 D
VA82 SYD830-1510HKG 332 D

Also listed is a flight VA80 SYD-HKG however flight times make no sense due to a 135am departure from SYD
VA80 SYD135-815 HKG 332 D
No return flight is listed either

When do flight commence?

qf15 · Thu Mar 16, 2017 8:54 am

I thought VA currently only has rights for 7 flights/1925 seats weekly to HKG?

qf789 · Thu Mar 16, 2017 3:49 pm

Two flight attendants injured on QF718 PER-CBR on Monday night after aircraft hit severe turbulence on descent into CBR. One flight attendant suffered bruising to the knee while the other suffered from a broken ankle.

http://www.canberratimes.com.au/act-new ... uym6l.html

DeltaB717 · Thu Mar 16, 2017 11:12 pm

qf15 wrote:
I thought VA currently only has rights for 7 flights/1925 seats weekly to HKG?

There are 70 frequencies per week (and no seat count limit) available in total to Australian carriers for services between BNE/MEL/PER/SYD and HKG, of which QF are currently using 28, leaving 42 available. Technically, VA doesn't have any 'rights' to fly to HKG as they are yet to even submit an application to the International Air Services Commission.

getluv · Thu Mar 16, 2017 11:50 pm

DeltaB717 wrote:
qf15 wrote:
I thought VA currently only has rights for 7 flights/1925 seats weekly to HKG?

There are 70 frequencies per week (and no seat count limit) available in total to Australian carriers for services between BNE/MEL/PER/SYD and HKG, of which QF are currently using 28, leaving 42 available. Technically, VA doesn't have any 'rights' to fly to HKG as they are yet to even submit an application to the International Air Services Commission.

They were approved last year for 7 frequencies a week to operate from 1 June 2017.

DeltaB717 · Fri Mar 17, 2017 12:04 am

getluv wrote:
DeltaB717 wrote:
qf15 wrote:
I thought VA currently only has rights for 7 flights/1925 seats weekly to HKG?

There are 70 frequencies per week (and no seat count limit) available in total to Australian carriers for services between BNE/MEL/PER/SYD and HKG, of which QF are currently using 28, leaving 42 available. Technically, VA doesn't have any 'rights' to fly to HKG as they are yet to even submit an application to the International Air Services Commission.

They were approved last year for 7 frequencies a week to operate from 1 June 2017.

So they were, my mistake. So they will just need to submit for the SYD service if indeed they plan to go ahead with it.

qf2220 · Sat Mar 18, 2017 1:34 am

qf789 wrote:
AirNorth will increase flights between Wellcamp and Melbourne from 8 May 17 from the current daily flight to 10 weekly. From June 17 this will increase to 12 weekly flights

http://australianaviation.com.au/2017/0 ... -wellcamp/

Didn't realise this route was in existence - why didn't QF get in on it? Are they using the E170s on this route? Would the Q400s have the legs for it?

qf2220 · Sat Mar 18, 2017 1:41 am

pzurita1 wrote:
Could we really see the Fiesta Route again?

Distances per gcmap.com
PER-LHR - 9009mi
SYD-MEX - 8068mi.

I am not knowledgeable of how winds are different between these two, but face value the 789s could do it perhaps.

F100Flyer · Sat Mar 18, 2017 2:18 am

qf2220 wrote:
pzurita1 wrote:
Could we really see the Fiesta Route again?

Distances per gcmap.com
PER-LHR - 9009mi
SYD-MEX - 8068mi.

I am not knowledgeable of how winds are different between these two, but face value the 789s could do it perhaps.

Hi everyone..following this forum for a few years now and first time poster, so go easy.

PER-LHR is probably the limit of the 789. MEX sits at high altitude so probably won't have the legs to depart direct to SYD? Just like with EK and not being able to operate direct to DXB.

qf2220 · Sat Mar 18, 2017 8:38 am

MEX-DXB is 8914mi. Given that QF could have the 789 to use (as opposed to the A380) and an additional ~850mi to use, maybe it wouldnt be as big a hurdle?

luftaom · Sat Mar 18, 2017 3:58 pm

Isn't the problem with MEX the fact that the airport is at nearly 7500 feet and a twin on a long flight cops a payload hit to have sufficient margin for the loss of an engine shortly after V1? Which is why most of the European airlines send their quads to MEX.

pzurita1 · Sat Mar 18, 2017 5:51 pm

F100Flyer wrote:
qf2220 wrote:
pzurita1 wrote:
Could we really see the Fiesta Route again?

Distances per gcmap.com
PER-LHR - 9009mi
SYD-MEX - 8068mi.

I am not knowledgeable of how winds are different between these two, but face value the 789s could do it perhaps.

Hi everyone..following this forum for a few years now and first time poster, so go easy.

PER-LHR is probably the limit of the 789. MEX sits at high altitude so probably won't have the legs to depart direct to SYD? Just like with EK and not being able to operate direct to DXB.

Indeed. A nonstop SYD-MEX is doable. However, not the way around. That is why a refuling stop in NAN might be necesary. May be the route is not yet ready, but I have the feeling that if Trump continues with his rhetoric, more airlines will find the way to serve Mexico bypassing the US.

Regarding entry point for Australians to MEX, article say that almost 50% go through CUN and 21% trough MEX. So the new Fiesta Route might be SYD-MEX-CUN-SYD.

qf2220 · Sun Mar 19, 2017 1:19 am

The numbers on the MEX run look interesting too - potentially 85,000+ (per the article), more if the route can generate traffic or pull it from other routings.

Though a couple more factors. Who could QF/VA codeshare with at the MEX end to develop a decent distribution hub to move people around? And second, how many trips to Mexico are linked to US visits, i.e, are the pax already accommodated on US flights and would starting MEX cannibalise the existing flights?

smi0006 · Sun Mar 19, 2017 6:12 am

Would MEX, or LIM be a better route? Understand two different markets, but with limited frames choices need to be made. LIM would serve a large area of centra and South America, and looks to have support from Lima. Can SYD-LIM be done non-stop both ways?

RyanairGuru · Sun Mar 19, 2017 6:41 am

Re feeder hub in MEX it is interesting to note that LATAM codeshare with Interjet for Mexican domestic feed.

I honestly can never see SYD-MEX. AA fly to every market of note in Mexico from DFW, including many that most Australians have never heard of.

While there is a relatively large corporate market on the back of the resources industry, the largest market by far is CUN. Few people fly all the way to Mexico for sun and sand when NAN/DPS/HKT etc are so much closer, it is mostly an add-on to a larger US trip.

sunrisevalley · Sun Mar 19, 2017 10:49 pm

qf2220 wrote:
MEX-DXB is 8914mi. Given that QF could have the 789 to use (as opposed to the A380) and an additional ~850mi to use, maybe it wouldnt be as big a hurdle?

The 789 take off tables show a TOW of ~220t out of MEX on a standard day . That is good enough for ~12hrs with a 30t payload. Not going to make it anywhere close to Australia I'm afraid.

Zkpilot · Mon Mar 20, 2017 1:03 am

RyanairGuru wrote:
Re feeder hub in MEX it is interesting to note that LATAM codeshare with Interjet for Mexican domestic feed.

I honestly can never see SYD-MEX. AA fly to every market of note in Mexico from DFW, including many that most Australians have never heard of.

While there is a relatively large corporate market on the back of the resources industry, the largest market by far is CUN. Few people fly all the way to Mexico for sun and sand when NAN/DPS/HKT etc are so much closer, it is mostly an add-on to a larger US trip.

AKL-MEX on the other hand is 2 hours flying time shorter so might be a possibility.

acinvestigator · Mon Mar 20, 2017 1:13 am

For anyone interested in some of the ongoing matters following the Pel-Air ditching:

https://www.caselaw.nsw.gov.au/decision ... 596cba4889

qf789 · Mon Mar 20, 2017 1:36 am

WIFI on QF will begin next week

https://www.ausbt.com.au/qantas-wifi-to ... -next-week

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