voxkel
Topic Author
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Should US Carriers Start Flights from New York to Asia?

Thu Feb 16, 2017 11:03 pm

With the advent of low-cost medium haul airlines like Norwegian flying into JFK, legacy carriers like American and Delta are worried about keeping their traditional routes intact. Where should they focus to safeguard their JFK hub?

One interesting thing I noticed is that no US carrier flies non-stop from New York to Asia. The longest flight by a US carrier is Delta's to Tel Aviv, and they recently discontinued a nonstop to Narita.

Is there any possibility on making New York an international hub for American carriers like DL and AA? Considering CX pulls 3 daily nonstops to HKG and NH/JL combined have 4 daily nonstops to TYO (HND + NRT), it is surprising that no US carrier flies such popular routes.

Map of possible routes:

Image


Hong Kong
    --Would work better for AA which codeshares with CX
    --8067 miles from NY to HKG
    --Could be started when the demand for a 4th JFK-HKG flight arises

Tokyo (preferably Haneda)
    --Would work better for AA which codeshares with JL
    --6772 miles from NY to HND
    --Could be started when the demand for a 5th JFK-Tokyo flight arises
    --US Carriers have operated JFK-TYO in the past, and can certainly have an impact on this popular route

Seoul-Incheon
    --Would work better for DL which codeshares with Korean Air
    --6906 miles from NY to ICN
    --Multiple flights exist between JFK and ICN, and DL can definitely funnel from other eastern US cities and codeshare with Korean on the other end

Shanghai-Pudong
    --Would work better for DL which codeshares with China Eastern
    --7392 miles from NY to PVG
    --Delta arguably has a better hard and soft product than China Eastern, which can certainly attract high-paying yield
    --DL can funnel from other eastern US cities and codeshare with MU on the other end

Mumbai
    --Would work better for DL which codeshares with Jet Airways
    --7807 miles from NY to BOM
    --Nobody currently flies from New York to Mumbai, despite the fact that it is the third largest premium market from BOM after DXB and SIN
    --DL can funnel from other eastern US cities and codeshare with 9W on the other end

Beijing-Capital
    --Could work for either DL or AA but challenging as PEK is a *A hub
    --6838 miles from NY to BOM
    --There is certainly demand in the near future for a third daily NY-PEK, and a US carrier can prove to have a better product than Air China
 
Irehdna
Posts: 29
Joined: Thu Dec 01, 2016 12:40 am

Re: Should US Carriers Start Flights from New York to Asia?

Thu Feb 16, 2017 11:05 pm

This is a plausible idea, but:
a)Is it feasable to make both DL and AA start long-hauls form NY?
b)JFK is already nearing capacity with O&D. Do you think adding transferring passengers won't further its problems?
 
tharanga
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Re: Should US Carriers Start Flights from New York to Asia?

Thu Feb 16, 2017 11:12 pm

voxkel wrote:

One interesting thing I noticed is that no US carrier flies non-stop from New York to Asia.


I don't understand the premise here. You are only mentioning JFK. UA does this from EWR.
 
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LAXintl
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Re: Should US Carriers Start Flights from New York to Asia?

Thu Feb 16, 2017 11:13 pm

You do realize United flies to Asia from EWR which very much serves NYC.

EWR- BOM
EWR - DEL
EWR - HKG
EWR - NRT
EWR - PEK
EWR - PVG
EWR - TLV

=
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815Oceanic
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Re: Should US Carriers Start Flights from New York to Asia?

Thu Feb 16, 2017 11:13 pm

It looks like you put quite a bit of thought into this! Can I assume you mean JFK rather than New York in general? Most airlines consider EWR (although in another state) as a New York market airport (whether posters on a.net personally do). In that regard, UA would serve quite a bit out of New York to Asia: NRT, PEK, PVG, HKG, BOM, DEL, TLV

As for DL and AA out of JFK, both have tried and failed to sustain service to Asia. Neither AA nor DL has the connection flow at JFK like UA does at EWR to sustain Asia service. Add to that foreign carriers that can undercut U.S. carrier prices and you have a poor market for AA and DL. I think both would rather focus on more profitable flights to Asia out of ORD/DFW/LAX for AA and DTW/SEA/LAX for DL.
 
jfk777
Posts: 6087
Joined: Tue Aug 22, 2006 7:23 am

Re: Should US Carriers Start Flights from New York to Asia?

Thu Feb 16, 2017 11:16 pm

There was a time that PA had the only nonstops with 747SP and JAL used a DC-10-40 stopping in Alaska, then came the 747-200 and NW plus JAL went nonstop and PA got left behind with an inefficient 747SP. ANA came along with 747-200 nonstop around the same time UA took over from PA with 747-200. Then everyone got 744 which ruled for a long time until around 2005 when the 777-300ER used today by JAL & ANA arrived. UA merged with Continental and quick JFK to NRT. Delta merged with NW and as hard as it is to believe hey quit 777-200ER nonstops to NRT.

US3 service to Asia would have to be by Delta and AA from JFK, if AA had game a 787 to Tokyo should be a nobrainer. Currently AA is building up DFW and LAX to Asia flights. JAL will have to carry the OW route to Tokyo from New York for now.
 
NichCage
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Re: Should US Carriers Start Flights from New York to Asia?

Thu Feb 16, 2017 11:16 pm

Why did AA cut JFK-HND? If I am also correct, did AA serve JFK-NRT in the past?
 
jfk777
Posts: 6087
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Re: Should US Carriers Start Flights from New York to Asia?

Thu Feb 16, 2017 11:21 pm

NichCage wrote:
Why did AA cut JFK-HND? If I am also correct, did AA serve JFK-NRT in the past?


when AA flew to Haneda they had to deal with the awful 2200-0700 window, which means they left JFK at 1900 arriving at 2300 and leaving in the morning at 0655 arriving in JFK at 0700. Awful schedule which crippled the flight. IF AA could fly to HND with any viable schedule then it probably could work.
 
winginit
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Re: Should US Carriers Start Flights from New York to Asia?

Thu Feb 16, 2017 11:27 pm

NichCage wrote:
Why did AA cut JFK-HND? If I am also correct, did AA serve JFK-NRT in the past?


Because they lost ~$50MM per year on JFKHND. Even better slots couldn't turn around losses of that magnitude.
 
aviationjunky
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Re: Should US Carriers Start Flights from New York to Asia?

Thu Feb 16, 2017 11:30 pm

I think the idea is possible, however, what about EWR? UA already flies EWR-HKG, NRT, PVG, BOM, and PEK. Plus, if an airline has a codeshare with another airline that already flies to JFK or where ever, the odds of them trying to compete with them is slim to none. If anything, the competitor would more than likely try, but again, the demand has to be there.

Take CX for example. They fly JFK-HKG 3x a week already. Is there really a need for a codeshare and Oneworld alliance member to try and compete for the passengers? Not really, not when CX already has the approval from the FAA to make the trip.

And like Irehdna said, JFK is almost to capacity, so the odds of adding new routes to an already overcrowded airport would be a disaster.
LAS is Life
 
Swadian
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Re: Should US Carriers Start Flights from New York to Asia?

Fri Feb 17, 2017 1:48 am

voxkel wrote:
One interesting thing I noticed is that no US carrier flies non-stop from New York to Asia. The longest flight by a US carrier is Delta's to Tel Aviv, and they recently discontinued a nonstop to Narita.
[/list]


Um, TLV is in Asia, so you just discredited yourself even if you do not count EWR.
Viribus Unitis!
 
PanzerPowner
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Re: Should US Carriers Start Flights from New York to Asia?

Fri Feb 17, 2017 1:55 am

KFJK-RPLL would be good. Philippine Airlines already does it via Vancouver with it's A343s. With a large Filipino community in the NY Area, something better and cheaper than a A343 ride on PR would be nice.
Says he likes Boeing and dispises Airbus but freaks out when he sees an A350, Aircraft Foaming at it's finest. :arrow: :!:
 
theasianguy
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Re: Should US Carriers Start Flights from New York to Asia?

Fri Feb 17, 2017 2:26 am

PanzerPowner wrote:
KFJK-RPLL would be good. Philippine Airlines already does it via Vancouver with it's A343s. With a large Filipino community in the NY Area, something better and cheaper than a A343 ride on PR would be nice.


Yields would be trash though. Flying a plane full of rock bottom fares on a 16+ hour journey is a guaranteed loss.
 
spacecadet
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Re: Should US Carriers Start Flights from New York to Asia?

Fri Feb 17, 2017 5:12 am

voxkel wrote:
Considering CX pulls 3 daily nonstops to HKG and NH/JL combined have 4 daily nonstops to TYO (HND + NRT), it is surprising that no US carrier flies such popular routes.


AA and UA couldn't really compete with JL/NH to Tokyo in terms of service levels, and honestly a majority of passengers on this route are Japanese. It was a shock to some when DL pulled this route considering their historical ties (as NW), but I predicted here when the NW merger happened that they'd never catch on in Japan the way NW had. Japan is very brand conscious, and consumers there have no allegiance to DL the way they had to NW.

I think we'll probably see a US airline do JFK-TYO again, but they're going to have to step up their game. I remember a couple years ago, UA actually forced NH to cut back their service levels to better match UA (they were codeshare partners on this route). NH had to cut back on their baggage allowance and also on their in-flight offerings (no more baskets of wine wandering around the coach cabin). But still, UA just couldn't keep up. All US airlines will need to do better if they expect to make money on this route.
I'm tired of being a wanna-be league bowler. I wanna be a league bowler!
 
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aemoreira1981
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Re: Should US Carriers Start Flights from New York to Asia?

Fri Feb 17, 2017 5:43 am

PanzerPowner wrote:
KFJK-RPLL would be good. Philippine Airlines already does it via Vancouver with it's A343s. With a large Filipino community in the NY Area, something better and cheaper than a A343 ride on PR would be nice.


It's now a 380-seat 77W...the up-gauge was because while the cabin may be empty, the belly cargo is full. The A340-300s previously used had too little cargo room.

As for AA or DL doing so, the problem would be that the departure time would be awful from Asia to make it back to flight banks in the USA. That said, I'm surprised that UA, which flies to four Far East destinations from Newark (NRT, PEK, PVG, and HKG - the last one is especially weight-restricted and could really be upgraded to a 77W), doesn't fly EWR-ICN, which would help fill a gap in Star Alliance to EWR (although OZ flies ICN-JFK with an A380).

On JFK to NRT, however, or even JFK to HND, anyone will be hard-pressed to match Japan Airlines in its service (it has arguably the roomiest Y section of any airline, with long-haul Dreamliners being just 169 seats (787-8) or 188 seats (787-9) in an unusual 2-4-2 configuration, or 244-seat 77Ws (the seats are 34"/18.9-19.0" in Y). How does JL make money on this, given that NH is 10-abreast in Y despite having only 264 seats on their 77Ws?
 
jagraham
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Re: Should US Carriers Start Flights from New York to Asia?

Fri Feb 17, 2017 9:24 am

Delta ended JFK to NRT last October. Not too long ago . .

https://www.fool.com/investing/2016/08/ ... kyo-h.aspx
 
dtw2hyd
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Re: Should US Carriers Start Flights from New York to Asia?

Fri Feb 17, 2017 12:19 pm

DL/9W code share offers one stop to NYC-BOM/DEL.
UA offers non-stops to BOM/DEL.

Should US3 start more non-stops to India, answer is big fat NO. ULH economics will be always on edge. Slight change in market conditions route goes into red.

US/EU legacies should have broad code shares with Indian carriers and let them connect to secondary Indian cities to Europe, while JV partners continue to connect BOM and DEL.
 
raylee67
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Joined: Mon Oct 24, 2011 11:06 pm

Re: Should US Carriers Start Flights from New York to Asia?

Fri Feb 17, 2017 1:15 pm

AA has metal neutral JV with JAL. There is no need for AA to fly from NYC to Tokyo, where JAL is already serving the market with 2 daily flights. Without a connection hub at NYC, Any NYC-Asia routes by DL and AA will need to be solely supported by O&D traffic on both ends, which will put AA and DL in a severe disadvantage when competing with Asian carriers on the same route as their Asian competitors can serve both O&D and connection market beyond their Asian hubs.
319 320 321 332 333 342 343 345 388 707 717 732 736 738 739 74R 742 743 744 74E 757 762 763 772 77E 77L 773 77W D10 M80 135 140 145 175 190 DH1 DH4 CRJ CR7 L10
AY LH OU SR BA
AA DL UA NW AC CP WS FL NK
CI NH SQ KA CX JL BR OZ TG KE CA CZ NZ JQ RS
 
Rdh3e
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Re: Should US Carriers Start Flights from New York to Asia?

Fri Feb 17, 2017 2:43 pm

Swadian wrote:
Um, TLV is in Asia, so you just discredited yourself even if you do not count EWR.

Regardless of which continental shelf TLV is on, most airlines consider it "Transatlantic" and planned more similarly to Europe rather than "Transpacific" which is likely why the poster made this distinction. I don't know anyone in planning would consider TLV in the same boat as PEK as far as it being "Asia" flying.
 
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TheLion
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Re: Should US Carriers Start Flights from New York to Asia?

Fri Feb 17, 2017 3:52 pm

In one word: Yes.
 
notconcerned
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Re: Should US Carriers Start Flights from New York to Asia?

Fri Feb 17, 2017 4:43 pm

spacecadet wrote:
voxkel wrote:
Considering CX pulls 3 daily nonstops to HKG and NH/JL combined have 4 daily nonstops to TYO (HND + NRT), it is surprising that no US carrier flies such popular routes.


AA and UA couldn't really compete with JL/NH to Tokyo in terms of service levels, and honestly a majority of passengers on this route are Japanese. It was a shock to some when DL pulled this route considering their historical ties (as NW), but I predicted here when the NW merger happened that they'd never catch on in Japan the way NW had. Japan is very brand conscious, and consumers there have no allegiance to DL the way they had to NW.

I think we'll probably see a US airline do JFK-TYO again, but they're going to have to step up their game. I remember a couple years ago, UA actually forced NH to cut back their service levels to better match UA (they were codeshare partners on this route). NH had to cut back on their baggage allowance and also on their in-flight offerings (no more baskets of wine wandering around the coach cabin). But still, UA just couldn't keep up. All US airlines will need to do better if they expect to make money on this route.


While service-wise AA/UA will never be able to compete with JL/NH, but that will have no effect on the revenue and economics of US-TYO market, as both are in operating under revenue-sharing JV. At the end of the day, even if JL/NH dominates the NYC-TYO market, AA and UA will still get a share of the revenue, and will support the overall network with other transfer points, such as via DFW, IAH, DEN.
 
VC10er
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Re: Should US Carriers Start Flights from New York to Asia?

Fri Feb 17, 2017 10:35 pm

EWR, especially from midtown to the financial district is a fairly convenient NYC airport- aside from other points in the Tri-State area. And when the "new spirit of United" truly kicks-in and TC is renovated with new clubs with new aircraft with Polaris, etc...I would hope to see UA expand Asia non-stops. I realize they may not get any 777W's, or maybe a few, or perhaps 787's or A350's so the gap between United and sterling Asia carriers is closed to a more accessible level, me thinks UA could make a lot of money with corporate contracts from some NYC area companies. Not just the big, global financial companies, but NJ is FILLED with mega pharma and more. That besides the NY metro area population. On top of the ability to make other connections at EWR (which was previously mentioned) - they also need to ban E145's and Canadair's from TA.
The world is missing love, let's use our flights to spread it!
 
Flighty
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Re: Should US Carriers Start Flights from New York to Asia?

Fri Feb 17, 2017 10:42 pm

These markets are relatively high cost and compete directly against motivated, foreign competitors. They are "large" markets without being profit opportunities in the least.

The profit opportunity serving Des Moines, Iowa probably exceeds serving NYC-Asia as a whole. And I would probably include EWR with that.

But anyway, this is why DSM gets service while JFK-Asia does not, on our legacies. ROI.
 
slcdeltarumd11
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Re: Should US Carriers Start Flights from New York to Asia?

Fri Feb 17, 2017 11:41 pm

United serves alot of cities in Asia from EWR.

I mean the airlines with hubs in JFK are JetBlue, Delta and American. I don't see how any of those airlines could actually make money on a route. If they cant make Tokyo work, i cant see where else would. That is the biggest business market i would imagine. They basically dont fly it because its useless overflying hubs and they cant make money. I dont see any in the near future. Both Delta and AA are working on making SEA and LAX asian connection points. Hurts themselves to open up NYC. I dont see anything anytime soon except United at EWR.
 
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airzim
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Re: Should US Carriers Start Flights from New York to Asia?

Fri Feb 17, 2017 11:45 pm

spacecadet wrote:
voxkel wrote:
Considering CX pulls 3 daily nonstops to HKG and NH/JL combined have 4 daily nonstops to TYO (HND + NRT), it is surprising that no US carrier flies such popular routes.


AA and UA couldn't really compete with JL/NH to Tokyo in terms of service levels, and honestly a majority of passengers on this route are Japanese. It was a shock to some when DL pulled this route considering their historical ties (as NW), but I predicted here when the NW merger happened that they'd never catch on in Japan the way NW had. Japan is very brand conscious, and consumers there have no allegiance to DL the way they had to NW.

I think we'll probably see a US airline do JFK-TYO again, but they're going to have to step up their game. I remember a couple years ago, UA actually forced NH to cut back their service levels to better match UA (they were codeshare partners on this route). NH had to cut back on their baggage allowance and also on their in-flight offerings (no more baskets of wine wandering around the coach cabin). But still, UA just couldn't keep up. All US airlines will need to do better if they expect to make money on this route.


This is the definition of fake news. In totality.

Ignorance is not knowledge
 
ahj2000
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Re: Should US Carriers Start Flights from New York to Asia?

Sat Feb 18, 2017 2:42 am

I'd wait for the A350 to arrive in the US. AA it DL might return to JFK-Asia they receive the A350, a perfect aircraft for the market IMO
-Andrés Juánez
 
Irehdna
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Re: Should US Carriers Start Flights from New York to Asia?

Sat Feb 18, 2017 2:46 am

slcdeltarumd11 wrote:
I mean the airlines with hubs in JFK are JetBlue, Delta and American. I don't see how any of those airlines could actually make money on a route. If they cant make Tokyo work, i cant see where else would. That is the biggest business market i would imagine. They basically dont fly it because its useless overflying hubs and they cant make money. I dont see any in the near future. Both Delta and AA are working on making SEA and LAX asian connection points. Hurts themselves to open up NYC. I dont see anything anytime soon except United at EWR.


IMO the only reason I see why some US carriers are successful at such ULH flights is connections from 2nd-tier origin points. New York (JFK + LGA) is located in a position that disadvantages it against transfer traffic.

Trans-Atlantic flights (India and West) are now operated to all parts of the USA from east to west, so a transfer in New York is unnecessary as airports like Chicago, Washington, Newark, and even San Francisco and Los Angeles are now within the range of such flights, and each can serve a more targeted origin pool. Also, one can argue that ME3 carriers have removed the necessity for many to transfer in JFK to reach certain destinations.

On the other hand, all trans-pacific flights are westbound from USA, so based on a purely geographic perspective, as NY is on the east coast of the country, most of its traffic to Asia is O/D with few transfers. Chicago has proven to be a major hub for UA and that includes flights from origins in 2nd tier northeastern and southeastern US cities.
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: Should US Carriers Start Flights from New York to Asia?

Sat Feb 18, 2017 3:40 am

Irehdna wrote:
IMO the only reason I see why some US carriers are successful at such ULH flights is connections from 2nd-tier origin points.

You just described every ULH flight.
There isn't currently one on the planet that exists solely on O&D.


Irehdna wrote:
On the other hand, all trans-pacific flights are westbound from USA

:shakehead: Most of them are actually northbound.
Especially in the initial segment of cruise.


Irehdna wrote:
Trans-Atlantic flights (India and West) are now operated to all parts of the USA from east to west, so a transfer in New York is unnecessary as airports like Chicago, Washington, Newark, and even San Francisco and Los Angeles are now within the range of such flights, and each can serve a more targeted origin pool. Also, one can argue that ME3 carriers have removed the necessity for many to transfer in JFK to reach certain destinations.

On the other hand, all trans-pacific flights are westbound from USA, so based on a purely geographic perspective, as NY is on the east coast of the country, most of its traffic to Asia is O/D with few transfers. Chicago has proven to be a major hub for UA and that includes flights from origins in 2nd tier northeastern and southeastern US cities.

You're attempting to pass off guesswork as an explanation, and it's just NOT accurate.

Map out some of these flights you're supposing:
  • Do you realize that there's barely 150nm difference between MIA-JFK-HKG vs MIA-ORD-HKG? Both offer plenty of cnnx.
  • Or that IAH-EWR-DEL is more than 700nm shorter than IAH-DXB-DEL? Again, both offering plenty of connections.

If you did, you probably wouldn't make such statements.
NYC has massive O&D, but it's pumping transfer pax into Asia (over both the Pacific/Arctic and Atlantic) all day long.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
strfyr51
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Re: Should US Carriers Start Flights from New York to Asia?

Mon Feb 20, 2017 10:27 am

voxkel wrote:
With the advent of low-cost medium haul airlines like Norwegian flying into JFK, legacy carriers like American and Delta are worried about keeping their traditional routes intact. Where should they focus to safeguard their JFK hub?

One interesting thing I noticed is that no US carrier flies non-stop from New York to Asia. The longest flight by a US carrier is Delta's to Tel Aviv, and they recently discontinued a nonstop to Narita.

Is there any possibility on making New York an international hub for American carriers like DL and AA? Considering CX pulls 3 daily nonstops to HKG and NH/JL combined have 4 daily nonstops to TYO (HND + NRT), it is surprising that no US carrier flies such popular routes.

Map of possible routes:

Image


Hong Kong
    --Would work better for AA which codeshares with CX
    --8067 miles from NY to HKG
    --Could be started when the demand for a 4th JFK-HKG flight arises

Tokyo (preferably Haneda)
    --Would work better for AA which codeshares with JL
    --6772 miles from NY to HND
    --Could be started when the demand for a 5th JFK-Tokyo flight arises
    --US Carriers have operated JFK-TYO in the past, and can certainly have an impact on this popular route

Seoul-Incheon
    --Would work better for DL which codeshares with Korean Air
    --6906 miles from NY to ICN
    --Multiple flights exist between JFK and ICN, and DL can definitely funnel from other eastern US cities and codeshare with Korean on the other end

Shanghai-Pudong
    --Would work better for DL which codeshares with China Eastern
    --7392 miles from NY to PVG
    --Delta arguably has a better hard and soft product than China Eastern, which can certainly attract high-paying yield
    --DL can funnel from other eastern US cities and codeshare with MU on the other end

Mumbai
    --Would work better for DL which codeshares with Jet Airways
    --7807 miles from NY to BOM
    --Nobody currently flies from New York to Mumbai, despite the fact that it is the third largest premium market from BOM after DXB and SIN
    --DL can funnel from other eastern US cities and codeshare with 9W on the other end

Beijing-Capital
    --Could work for either DL or AA but challenging as PEK is a *A hub
    --6838 miles from NY to BOM
    --There is certainly demand in the near future for a third daily NY-PEK, and a US carrier can prove to have a better product than Air China

I think the USA airlines Could do it but Why would they??
where would they Divert if they needed to? What facilities would they have? What Capabilities would Exist at those Facilities for the Crews, Passengers, or the airplanes??
Just because you CAN? Should you??

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