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reasonable
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 5

Tue Nov 07, 2017 4:42 pm

2Holer4Longhaul wrote:
(although Detroit is a bit past its prime).


I know why people say this, but I've made multiple data-driven arguments for why the Detroit market will grow and mature in upcoming years related to how the metropolitan region is growing. I think you will be surprised.
 
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flymco753
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 5

Tue Nov 07, 2017 4:49 pm

reasonable wrote:
2Holer4Longhaul wrote:
(although Detroit is a bit past its prime).


I know why people say this, but I've made multiple data-driven arguments for why the Detroit market will grow and mature in upcoming years related to how the metropolitan region is growing. I think you will be surprised.
Some of these contributions to growth in service to Europe will be driven by WW, I'm confident that DUB and BCN in particular will reach levels to warrant a nonstop flight in the nearest future. Increased service to London will also come out of it, most likely by BA.
 
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flymco753
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion 2017

Tue Nov 07, 2017 6:39 pm

I just read, what I think is a very important article pertaining to folks moving up to y'alls state. This is a little dated but I found it researching in-migration to Orlando for an air service project, but stumbled over one for Michigan: http://www.mlive.com/news/index.ssf/201 ... f-sta.html

This article gives you a pretty decent look at the possibility of new air service with the migration of households. I've always predicted that NK would eventually serve AUS, but taking into account, the growth in O&D and the addition of new households in Wayne County alone, it should make the route more viable, especially when the adjusted income is lower, it almost points directly towards a low cost option. Frontier could have done AUS in their recent expansion but they didn't, same with TPA.
 
2Holer4Longhaul
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 5

Tue Nov 07, 2017 8:26 pm

reasonable wrote:
2Holer4Longhaul wrote:
(although Detroit is a bit past its prime).


I know why people say this, but I've made multiple data-driven arguments for why the Detroit market will grow and mature in upcoming years related to how the metropolitan region is growing. I think you will be surprised.

I know that. Nevertheless, Detroit has been experiencing decline, stagnation, or below-average growth for most of the past half-century. Its chances of returning to its glory days are not high.
 
reasonable
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 5

Tue Nov 07, 2017 11:50 pm

2Holer4Longhaul wrote:
I know that. Nevertheless, Detroit has been experiencing decline, stagnation, or below-average growth for most of the past half-century. Its chances of returning to its glory days are not high.


Yeah, so, to reiterate: "I've made multiple data-driven arguments for why the Detroit market will grow and mature in upcoming years."

Your characterization using words such as "decline, stagnation, or below-average growth" betrays that you're not informed. If you want to experience the power of research, Google "Detroit GDP growth." You'll find handy charts like this one: https://www.statista.com/statistics/183 ... etro-area/

This is just an example! If you want to find facts, it's easy to do research and put all the pieces together!!
 
CHI2DFW
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 5

Wed Nov 08, 2017 2:05 am

2Holer4Longhaul wrote:
reasonable wrote:
2Holer4Longhaul wrote:
(although Detroit is a bit past its prime).


I know why people say this, but I've made multiple data-driven arguments for why the Detroit market will grow and mature in upcoming years related to how the metropolitan region is growing. I think you will be surprised.

I know that. Nevertheless, Detroit has been experiencing decline, stagnation, or below-average growth for most of the past half-century. Its chances of returning to its glory days are not high.


Dude, let it go. This is the DTW thread, like it or not. Let fans share their enthusiasm here. Now if someone on this forum starts a DTW-JNB is the most underserved route in the world, then its fair game. Other than that, respect the opinions here, it’s their thread.
 
jordanh
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 5

Wed Nov 08, 2017 2:46 am

reasonable wrote:
2Holer4Longhaul wrote:
I know that. Nevertheless, Detroit has been experiencing decline, stagnation, or below-average growth for most of the past half-century. Its chances of returning to its glory days are not high.

Yeah, so, to reiterate: "I've made multiple data-driven arguments for why the Detroit market will grow and mature in upcoming years."
Your characterization using words such as "decline, stagnation, or below-average growth" betrays that you're not informed. If you want to experience the power of research, Google "Detroit GDP growth." You'll find handy charts like this one: https://www.statista.com/statistics/183 ... etro-area/
This is just an example! If you want to find facts, it's easy to do research and put all the pieces together!!

Apparently, neither of you is totally right - or totally wrong. This is an interesting (and unbiased, apparently) look:

https://www.citylab.com/equity/2017/02/ ... st/517194/

So "decline, stagnation, or below-average growth" is not ill-informed. It isn't the whole story, but the whole story looks more complicated.

CHI2DFW wrote:
Dude, let it go. This is the DTW thread, like it or not. Let fans share their enthusiasm here. Now if someone on this forum starts a DTW-JNB is the most underserved route in the world, then its fair game. Other than that, respect the opinions here, it’s their thread.


It is okay for someone to "share their enthusiasm", but it is disingenuous to make false representations in order to discredit someone else... or, really, to justify whining about airlines' decisions regarding traffic to, from, and through an airport.
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion 2017

Wed Nov 08, 2017 3:33 am

DTW's estimated annual growth in eplanements in the currently economic environment is 1-3%.
2016 saw almost 3% growth, 2017 is going to be about 1% on current trajectory. 2018 will likely be another 1-3% growth year.
 
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flymco753
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion 2017

Wed Nov 08, 2017 3:51 am

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
DTW's estimated annual growth in eplanements in the currently economic environment is 1-3%.
2016 saw almost 3% growth, 2017 is going to be about 1% on current trajectory. 2018 will likely be another 1-3% growth year.
Depends on what WW is going to do and the 3rd CDG flight. I say 2% at least, 4% at most.
 
2Holer4Longhaul
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 5

Wed Nov 08, 2017 6:08 am

flymco753 wrote:
reasonable wrote:
2Holer4Longhaul wrote:
(although Detroit is a bit past its prime).


I know why people say this, but I've made multiple data-driven arguments for why the Detroit market will grow and mature in upcoming years related to how the metropolitan region is growing. I think you will be surprised.
Some of these contributions to growth in service to Europe will be driven by WW, I'm confident that DUB and BCN in particular will reach levels to warrant a nonstop flight in the nearest future. Increased service to London will also come out of it, most likely by BA.

How many times do we have to refute the BA pipe dream? This is nowhere near the best way for them to use frames, for reasons I have extolled many times before.
I would not be surprised if DL or EI enter DTW-DUB (it seems feasible if the 757 fleet has the slack), but give up on more flights to LHR.
 
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flymco753
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion 2017

Wed Nov 08, 2017 6:57 pm

F9's RSW flight upgraded from A320 to A321.
 
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flymco753
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion 2017

Wed Nov 08, 2017 7:07 pm

F9 brought MCO back up to daily, but it's a mix of A319's and A320's. GRR was knocked down to an A320/A319 and is now daily as well. Our competitors at MSP, IND, and CMH are all seeing the same effect. Could this be a utilization issue with the 321 that caused F9 to go 3x weekly originally, than to daily with smaller aircraft? It seems like a lot of A321's are going up the east coast and to Denver from MCO, so overall the amount of A321 flying at MCO is reduced.

Edit: make DTW-MCO a mixture of A319, A320 and A321 this winter, it's hit or miss which plane will be utilized on which day.
 
michman
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 5

Wed Nov 08, 2017 7:27 pm

jordanh wrote:
reasonable wrote:
2Holer4Longhaul wrote:
I know that. Nevertheless, Detroit has been experiencing decline, stagnation, or below-average growth for most of the past half-century. Its chances of returning to its glory days are not high.

Yeah, so, to reiterate: "I've made multiple data-driven arguments for why the Detroit market will grow and mature in upcoming years."
Your characterization using words such as "decline, stagnation, or below-average growth" betrays that you're not informed. If you want to experience the power of research, Google "Detroit GDP growth." You'll find handy charts like this one: https://www.statista.com/statistics/183 ... etro-area/
This is just an example! If you want to find facts, it's easy to do research and put all the pieces together!!

Apparently, neither of you is totally right - or totally wrong. This is an interesting (and unbiased, apparently) look:

https://www.citylab.com/equity/2017/02/ ... st/517194/

So "decline, stagnation, or below-average growth" is not ill-informed. It isn't the whole story, but the whole story looks more complicated.

CHI2DFW wrote:
Dude, let it go. This is the DTW thread, like it or not. Let fans share their enthusiasm here. Now if someone on this forum starts a DTW-JNB is the most underserved route in the world, then its fair game. Other than that, respect the opinions here, it’s their thread.


It is okay for someone to "share their enthusiasm", but it is disingenuous to make false representations in order to discredit someone else... or, really, to justify whining about airlines' decisions regarding traffic to, from, and through an airport.


The report looks exclusively at the "City of Detroit" which at this point is a relatively small part of the metro area which is served by DTW. The city only has 670,000 people vs. 4.5M in the area. And the DTW catchment is probably closer to 5M.
 
reasonable
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 5

Wed Nov 08, 2017 7:43 pm

jordanh wrote:
So "decline, stagnation, or below-average growth" is not ill-informed. It isn't the whole story, but the whole story looks more complicated.


Thanks for sharing this article. It's repeated ad nauseam here: Detroit-the-city is the biggest city in a vast CSA, and DTW serves the entire CSA and beyond.
 
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flymco753
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion 2017

Thu Nov 09, 2017 4:36 am

Spirit is really going to beef up DTW service in the coming months and also is currently running winter sales for the winter for as low as $45 one way to popular destinations.

-MCO goes from 2x to 4x daily (peak).
-TPA goes from 1x to 4x daily (peak).
-RSW goes from 1x to 4x daily (peak).
-MSY goes from 1x to 2x daily for the winter.
-321’s will go to ATL, MCO, RSW, FLL, IAH, LAS and CUN.
-Service to OAK in the spring returns as an A321 and SEA returns as an A320.
-2nd daily DFW and LAX services return.

Overall, Spirit is on track to grow air service at record levels for DTW and there may be more to come!
 
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flymco753
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion 2017

Sun Nov 12, 2017 4:38 pm

*AS PDX-DTW JAN 1.0>0.1 FEB 1.0>0 MAR 1.0>0.7
Not surprised that this route wouldn't do well during the winter months.

DL DTW-BDL APR 5>4
DL DTW-ITH MAR 3>1.9 APR 3>1.9 MAY 3>1.9 JUN 3>1.8 JUL 3>1.9
Still shows 3x daily.
DL DTW-PHL MAR 6>5 MAY 6>5 JUN 7>5 JUL 7>5
Wow, wonder why.
DL DTW-SAN MAY 1.9>3
Yay?
DL DTW-SAV JAN 0.1>0.0
Of course.

Not so happy with the DL cuts.
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion 2017

Sun Nov 12, 2017 5:35 pm

flymco753 wrote:
*AS PDX-DTW JAN 1.0>0.1 FEB 1.0>0 MAR 1.0>0.7
Not surprised that this route wouldn't do well during the winter months.

DL DTW-BDL APR 5>4
DL DTW-ITH MAR 3>1.9 APR 3>1.9 MAY 3>1.9 JUN 3>1.8 JUL 3>1.9
Still shows 3x daily.
DL DTW-PHL MAR 6>5 MAY 6>5 JUN 7>5 JUL 7>5
Wow, wonder why.
DL DTW-SAN MAY 1.9>3
Yay?
DL DTW-SAV JAN 0.1>0.0
Of course.

Not so happy with the DL cuts.

One of the problems when looking at the OAG thread in isolation is missing the year-over-year context of any given market. The thread reports on changes of what was for sale the previous week versus was is for sale this week and take the number of flights per month and creates an average number of flights per day.
Airlines tend to load more flights/frequencies in their default/dummy long-term schedule that is for sale in advance then tweaks/prunes/adjusts the schedule closer-in. The gauge size and frequencies all get tuned, including day-of-the-week changes. The report masks a lot of the details. Hence why it always seems like "cuts" but it really may be similar to what they operated in the year prior.

DTW-PDX:
DL in recent years hasn't operated DTW-PDX year-round, with it not operating during winter. With AS entering the market, DL upped it to year-round and added a second peak season flight. No surprise, there is a lot of seasonality to PDX and DTW-PDX falls into the long/thin category during winter. With AS dropping for winter, it will be interesting to see if DL stays on the route now in Jan-March.

DTW-BDL:
This route now is all mainline, used to see a mix of 2-class RJs and even not that long ago some 50 seaters, but is at 4x per weekday Jan-Apr, then goes 5x per weekday the May-Dec.
So, there is lower frequency, but more mainline on the route, a trend that seen in many other markets.

DTW-ITH:
This route is 3x weekdays, 2x weekends/holidays. Same as always. There could be a filing/reporting error that reflects the numbers in the OAG report. Non-issue here.

DTW-PHL:
This route is seeing less frequency but on larger equipment. This route used to see a mix of 70/76 seat 2-class RJs on some of the off-peak midday flights, but is now going 5x mainline.

DTW-SAN:
Frequency and gauge varies a lot by month and day-of-the week. Its typically 3x per day most of the year, sometimes 2x per day during slow winter season and weekends. Route is typically 3x weekdays, and actually increases this summer for July peak to 4x A321 (if the advance schedule sticks)

DTW-SAV:
Never operates in Jan-Feb. Its last flight for the season is on 1/1/18 but comes back on 3/2/18. I'm kind of surprised they don't operate this flight as a daytime flight instead of an evening RON and/or put larger equipment on during peak spring/summer travel periods. Its been a EV CR7 but does go to a 9E CR9 starting in June.
 
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compensateme
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion 2017

Sun Nov 12, 2017 8:37 pm

I'm requesting that those who choose to do nothing but troll trolls in this tread to stay away -- doing something more productive with your time!!!

To support PSU's posting, before the schedule change, PHL was scheduled as a CR9, 2x717, 2xM88 & 2xM90 next summer; it's now scheduled as 5x320. While it's a net drop over 100 seats, let's compare to historical service:

2001: 6xD9S, 320, 72S (~898 seats)
2005: 6xD9S, 2x319 (~848)
2008: 3xD9S, 2xD95, 3x319 (~922)
2012: CRJ, 3xCR7, CR9, 319, 2xM88 (~741)
2017: 2xCR7, 717, 3x319, M88 (~775)
2018: 5x320 (~800)

Some takeaways:
- While frequency dropped from 7x to 5x, capacity is the most since the merger. Don't pay any attention to placeholders -- I serious doubt DL ever intended on running that amount of capacity through the market.
- We're comparing capacity here, but keep in mind that load factors are at an all-time high. DL and its affiliates filled 20%+ more available seats this spring/early summer than NW did 16 years ago. This translate into DL carrying 10%+ more passengers between the two markets than NW did.
- DL operated a similar percentage of 50-seat flights from DTW between 2015-2017, but the number is scheduled to drop by 40% (!!!) in 2018. There's a trickle down effect -- larger regional jets are being moved from places like PHL and BDL to places like LAN and MBS. As a result, smaller mainline jets are replacing them. Of course, to keep capacity stagnant, this means lower frequency.
- Last year, DL planned a similar strategy for this past summer, but ultimately reversed it. We'll see if it sticks this time.
 
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flymco753
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion 2017

Sun Nov 12, 2017 11:38 pm

compensateme wrote:
I'm requesting that those who choose to do nothing but troll trolls in this tread to stay away -- doing something more productive with your time!!!

To support PSU's posting, before the schedule change, PHL was scheduled as a CR9, 2x717, 2xM88 & 2xM90 next summer; it's now scheduled as 5x320. While it's a net drop over 100 seats, let's compare to historical service:

2001: 6xD9S, 320, 72S (~898 seats)
2005: 6xD9S, 2x319 (~848)
2008: 3xD9S, 2xD95, 3x319 (~922)
2012: CRJ, 3xCR7, CR9, 319, 2xM88 (~741)
2017: 2xCR7, 717, 3x319, M88 (~775)
2018: 5x320 (~800)

Some takeaways:
- While frequency dropped from 7x to 5x, capacity is the most since the merger. Don't pay any attention to placeholders -- I serious doubt DL ever intended on running that amount of capacity through the market.
- We're comparing capacity here, but keep in mind that load factors are at an all-time high. DL and its affiliates filled 20%+ more available seats this spring/early summer than NW did 16 years ago. This translate into DL carrying 10%+ more passengers between the two markets than NW did.
- DL operated a similar percentage of 50-seat flights from DTW between 2015-2017, but the number is scheduled to drop by 40% (!!!) in 2018. There's a trickle down effect -- larger regional jets are being moved from places like PHL and BDL to places like LAN and MBS. As a result, smaller mainline jets are replacing them. Of course, to keep capacity stagnant, this means lower frequency.
- Last year, DL planned a similar strategy for this past summer, but ultimately reversed it. We'll see if it sticks this time.
AA has a few 319s going to PHL beginning on latter February, I don’t have access to seat numbers in years past or else I would’ve compared them.
 
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion 2017

Sun Nov 12, 2017 11:52 pm

And AA is changing their strategy as well. In year's past, earlier in the US-AA merger, they were forcing their lowest-fare connections to markets in the northeast and southeast over CLT and DCA, while connections over PHL were typically several hundred dollars more expensive over PHL. No thanks, I'm not going to fly DTW-CLT-MHT.
AA when operating under the US network philosophy was using PHL with a heavier emphasis on O&D. Now AA is opening up the connecting hub opportunities of PHL.

I will say, I highly doubt that DTW-PHL will be 5x A320 next summer, I almost guarantee there will be a mix of MD88/MD90s in there as well as 717s. A lot depends on how they route aircraft and/or bridge aircraft and crews around the system. In summer 2017, PHL had like 4+ MD88/90 RON aircraft from ATL, DTW, MSP for example.
 
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klm617
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion 2017

Mon Nov 13, 2017 2:40 pm

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
And AA is changing their strategy as well. In year's past, earlier in the US-AA merger, they were forcing their lowest-fare connections to markets in the northeast and southeast over CLT and DCA, while connections over PHL were typically several hundred dollars more expensive over PHL. No thanks, I'm not going to fly DTW-CLT-MHT.
AA when operating under the US network philosophy was using PHL with a heavier emphasis on O&D. Now AA is opening up the connecting hub opportunities of PHL.

I will say, I highly doubt that DTW-PHL will be 5x A320 next summer, I almost guarantee there will be a mix of MD88/MD90s in there as well as 717s. A lot depends on how they route aircraft and/or bridge aircraft and crews around the system. In summer 2017, PHL had like 4+ MD88/90 RON aircraft from ATL, DTW, MSP for example.


Again this is the same process I have been complaining about with Detla when it comes to ATL and DTW Delta makes all the options over ATL much more attractive hurting the bottom line at DTW on on so many levels. For AA that changed at PHL because of the increased competition and AA was losing it's market share there while gouging the O/D passenger at PHL. That's why it's so important to cultivate more competition here at Detroit hoping that WOW will be very successful here and that Spirit keeps growing so Delta will stand up and take notice as it's market share erodes.
 
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compensateme
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion 2017

Mon Nov 13, 2017 3:08 pm

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
I will say, I highly doubt that DTW-PHL will be 5x A320 next summer, I almost guarantee there will be a mix of MD88/MD90s in there as well as 717s. A lot depends on how they route aircraft and/or bridge aircraft and crews around the system. In summer 2017, PHL had like 4+ MD88/90 RON aircraft from ATL, DTW, MSP for example.


No doubt it's a placeholder; I'd venture to say that anything scheduled more than 90-days out is a placeholder, with final adjustments made within the 30-90 day mark.

Of note is that a 359 will RON for 18-20 hours (arrives from PEK @ 6:01PM, doesn't depart until 12:13PM-2:01PM the following afternoon ... there's three flights in that time frame, but other frames are capable of operating them). Wouldn't be surprised to see this frame operate overnight to LAX or SEA for utilization purposes.
 
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klm617
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion 2017

Mon Nov 13, 2017 3:35 pm

compensateme wrote:
PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
I will say, I highly doubt that DTW-PHL will be 5x A320 next summer, I almost guarantee there will be a mix of MD88/MD90s in there as well as 717s. A lot depends on how they route aircraft and/or bridge aircraft and crews around the system. In summer 2017, PHL had like 4+ MD88/90 RON aircraft from ATL, DTW, MSP for example.


No doubt it's a placeholder; I'd venture to say that anything scheduled more than 90-days out is a placeholder, with final adjustments made within the 30-90 day mark.

Of note is that a 359 will RON for 18-20 hours (arrives from PEK @ 6:01PM, doesn't depart until 12:13PM-2:01PM the following afternoon ... there's three flights in that time frame, but other frames are capable of operating them). Wouldn't be surprised to see this frame operate overnight to LAX or SEA for utilization purposes.


What does one mean when they say placeholder. It's kind of a deceptive practice if I book one of these so called place holder flights and my flight gets deleted and then chances are Delta sends me a revised itinerary and guess what I'm routed over Atlanta because of the abundance of capacity in that market leaving me with little or no options but to suck it up and accept a routing that I did not purchase that may not fit my schedule.
 
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flymco753
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion 2017

Mon Nov 13, 2017 3:40 pm

klm617 wrote:
PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
And AA is changing their strategy as well. In year's past, earlier in the US-AA merger, they were forcing their lowest-fare connections to markets in the northeast and southeast over CLT and DCA, while connections over PHL were typically several hundred dollars more expensive over PHL. No thanks, I'm not going to fly DTW-CLT-MHT.
AA when operating under the US network philosophy was using PHL with a heavier emphasis on O&D. Now AA is opening up the connecting hub opportunities of PHL.

I will say, I highly doubt that DTW-PHL will be 5x A320 next summer, I almost guarantee there will be a mix of MD88/MD90s in there as well as 717s. A lot depends on how they route aircraft and/or bridge aircraft and crews around the system. In summer 2017, PHL had like 4+ MD88/90 RON aircraft from ATL, DTW, MSP for example.


Again this is the same process I have been complaining about with Detla when it comes to ATL and DTW Delta makes all the options over ATL much more attractive hurting the bottom line at DTW on on so many levels. For AA that changed at PHL because of the increased competition and AA was losing it's market share there while gouging the O/D passenger at PHL. That's why it's so important to cultivate more competition here at Detroit hoping that WOW will be very successful here and that Spirit keeps growing so Delta will stand up and take notice as it's market share erodes.
NK is grabbing a pretty good share on MCO, TPA and RSW this winter, you can already guarantee expansion from them so their overall market share is only going to increase. I say NK will have over 10% of the market in no time if they continue to flood seats into the DTW market like they have been, just because some routes don't increase in frequency though doesn't mean there's no more extra seats, because IAH went from an A319 to an A321 and that's a pretty significant increase as was the A320 to A321 on OAK, A319 to A320 on SEA. I expect them to add SAN, BDL next summer, and eventually, PDX, PHX, PBI and EWR.
 
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flymco753
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion 2017

Mon Nov 13, 2017 3:46 pm

compensateme wrote:
PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
I will say, I highly doubt that DTW-PHL will be 5x A320 next summer, I almost guarantee there will be a mix of MD88/MD90s in there as well as 717s. A lot depends on how they route aircraft and/or bridge aircraft and crews around the system. In summer 2017, PHL had like 4+ MD88/90 RON aircraft from ATL, DTW, MSP for example.


No doubt it's a placeholder; I'd venture to say that anything scheduled more than 90-days out is a placeholder, with final adjustments made within the 30-90 day mark.

Of note is that a 359 will RON for 18-20 hours (arrives from PEK @ 6:01PM, doesn't depart until 12:13PM-2:01PM the following afternoon ... there's three flights in that time frame, but other frames are capable of operating them). Wouldn't be surprised to see this frame operate overnight to LAX or SEA for utilization purposes.
I see the same thing for March with a few 321's going to Florida, so far I see RSW and FLL, one would have to sit here for a ridiculous amount of time so it leads me to believe either RSW will get a 3rd A321, FLL will get a 2nd or TPA will be thrown in the mix and get one.
 
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion 2017

Mon Nov 13, 2017 3:51 pm

klm617 wrote:
What does one mean when they say placeholder. It's kind of a deceptive practice if I book one of these so called place holder flights and my flight gets deleted and then chances are Delta sends me a revised itinerary and guess what I'm routed over Atlanta because of the abundance of capacity in that market leaving me with little or no options but to suck it up and accept a routing that I did not purchase that may not fit my schedule.

Airlines like UA & AA, not just DL do this practice, hence the whole premise of the OAG threads. Airlines open up their schedule for sale almost 12 months in advance and that long-term advanced / rough-cut schedule is basically a default/placeholder schedule that is not fully allocated and scheduled in alignment with the equipment, actual/exact flight times, crew schedules, and final, actual schedule that will be flown on the day of departure. The schedule tuning happens much closer-in, typically the near-final schedule is set about 90 days in advance, and it is essentially locked-in within the 45-60 day window outside of small operational required changes/substitutions.

The reality is that 80% of tickets are purchased less than 5 weeks in advance of departure, and going out to 3 months/12 weeks is probably more like less than 10% booked outside of peak holiday days.

If your flights are changed from what you originally booked, you are entitled to change it to sometime that fits your schedule better for free or get a refund.
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion 2017

Mon Nov 13, 2017 3:54 pm

flymco753 wrote:
I see the same thing for March with a few 321's going to Florida, so far I see RSW and FLL, one would have to sit here for a ridiculous amount of time so it leads me to believe either RSW will get a 3rd A321, FLL will get a 2nd or TPA will be thrown in the mix and get one.

I wouldn't even try to worry yourself about A321 routing in March at this point, they certainly have not set the equipment types, and with new fleet types it is notoriously out of balance. Hence the default/placeholder schedule in most cases would default to the aircraft type flown last year until it was scheduled otherwise. You'd see out-and-back flights turning with different equipment types for example.

The same thing happened with the influx of 717s, the advanced schedule was not reliable more than about 90 days out for equipment type.
 
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flymco753
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion 2017

Mon Nov 13, 2017 5:27 pm

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
flymco753 wrote:
I see the same thing for March with a few 321's going to Florida, so far I see RSW and FLL, one would have to sit here for a ridiculous amount of time so it leads me to believe either RSW will get a 3rd A321, FLL will get a 2nd or TPA will be thrown in the mix and get one.

I wouldn't even try to worry yourself about A321 routing in March at this point, they certainly have not set the equipment types, and with new fleet types it is notoriously out of balance. Hence the default/placeholder schedule in most cases would default to the aircraft type flown last year until it was scheduled otherwise. You'd see out-and-back flights turning with different equipment types for example.

The same thing happened with the influx of 717s, the advanced schedule was not reliable more than about 90 days out for equipment type.
I remember when they did that, it was like all 717's to GRR, TVC, MKE, BUF, PIT, and a ton to NYC, DC, BOS and what not. I was like where did all of these 717's come from all of a sudden. I think the same went for the 739 last summer, there were almost no 757's found going from DTW-West coast or Florida until maybe 3 months out.
 
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klm617
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion 2017

Sun Nov 19, 2017 2:46 pm

Another bad week for Detroit. Evey where in the Delta system additions but Detroit has nothing but reductions.

DL ATL-BNA MAY 11>10
DL ATL-CTG MAR 0.5>0.7
DL ATL-ELM JAN 0.1>0.0
DL ATL-EYW JAN 5>6
DL ATL-IND MAY 9>10
DL ATL-MDW MAY 5>6 JUN 5>6
DL ATL-MLB MAY 5>4
DL ATL-PNS MAY 7>8
DL ATL-RIC MAY 9>10 JUN 9>10
DL ATL-SJU APR 4>3 MAY 4>3 JUN 5>4 JUL 5>4
*DL ATL-STT APR 3>1.0 MAY 3>1.0 JUN 3>1.0 JUL 3>1.1
DL ATL-STX JUN 0.3>0.2 JUL 0.3>0.1
DL ATL-SXM FEB 0.9>0.7 MAR 0.8>0.7 APR 1.1>1.0 MAY 1.1>1.0 JUN 1.2>1.0 JUL 1.1>1.0
DL BIS-MSP MAY 6>7
DL DTW-BDL MAY 5>4
DL DTW-CAK MAY 4>3
DL DTW-CVG MAY 6>5
DL DTW-ITH MAR 1.9>3 APR 1.9>3 MAY 1.9>3 JUN 1.8>3 JUL 1.9>3
DL DTW-MLI MAY 3>1.8
DL DTW-RDU MAY 5>4 JUN 5>4 JUL 5>4
DL INL-MSP JAN 0.8>1.7 FEB 0.7>1.7 MAR 0.7>1.7 APR 0.7>1.7 MAY 0.7>1.7 JUN 0.7>1.7 JUL 0.7>1.7
DL JFK-STT APR 0.9>0.3 MAY 1.0>0.3 JUN 1.0>0.3 JUL 1.0>0.3
DL JFK-SXM APR 0.9>0.1 MAY 1.0>0.1 JUN 1.0>0.2 JUL 1.0>0.1
DL SLC-ASE APR 1.1>2 MAY 1.0>1.8
DL SLC-CVG MAY 1.0>1.8
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion 2017

Sun Nov 19, 2017 3:24 pm

Sigh......always glass half empty for you. Nevertheless, I'll do the analysis and you'll continue to claim that DL is screwing DTW.
Nothing really stands out on that list and its basically normal fluctuations. Again how scheduling is done they load a long-term default schedule that typically is a baseline of what was flown the year prior and tends to has more frequencies loaded because it doesn't necessarily reflect the year-over trend of fewer frequencies on larger aircraft as more 50 seaters come out, and the 70/76 seater flown down, and they are backfilled by mainline.

PHL & BDL we discussed last week as going all-mainline for the first time in a while.
RDU shows up this week, going from 2x mainline & 3x 2-class RJs to 4x mainline (2x MD88 & 2x 717 starting in May. Its actually a slight increase in seats on one less frequency.
Again part of the long-term trend as 50 seat RJs come out of the network.

klm617 wrote:
Another bad week for Detroit. Evey where in the Delta system additions but Detroit has nothing but reductions.

DL DTW-BDL MAY 5>4
DL DTW-CAK MAY 4>3
DL DTW-CVG MAY 6>5
DL DTW-ITH MAR 1.9>3 APR 1.9>3 MAY 1.9>3 JUN 1.8>3 JUL 1.9>3
DL DTW-MLI MAY 3>1.8
DL DTW-RDU MAY 5>4 JUN 5>4 JUL 5>4
 
jordanh
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion 2017

Sun Nov 19, 2017 4:24 pm

klm617 wrote:
Another bad week for Detroit. Evey where in the Delta system additions but Detroit has nothing but reductions.
DL ATL-BNA MAY 11>10
DL ATL-CTG MAR 0.5>0.7
DL ATL-ELM JAN 0.1>0.0
DL ATL-EYW JAN 5>6
DL ATL-IND MAY 9>10
DL ATL-MDW MAY 5>6 JUN 5>6
DL ATL-MLB MAY 5>4
DL ATL-PNS MAY 7>8
DL ATL-RIC MAY 9>10 JUN 9>10
DL ATL-SJU APR 4>3 MAY 4>3 JUN 5>4 JUL 5>4
*DL ATL-STT APR 3>1.0 MAY 3>1.0 JUN 3>1.0 JUL 3>1.1
DL ATL-STX JUN 0.3>0.2 JUL 0.3>0.1
DL ATL-SXM FEB 0.9>0.7 MAR 0.8>0.7 APR 1.1>1.0 MAY 1.1>1.0 JUN 1.2>1.0 JUL 1.1>1.0
DL BIS-MSP MAY 6>7
DL DTW-BDL MAY 5>4
DL DTW-CAK MAY 4>3
DL DTW-CVG MAY 6>5
DL DTW-ITH MAR 1.9>3 APR 1.9>3 MAY 1.9>3 JUN 1.8>3 JUL 1.9>3
DL DTW-MLI MAY 3>1.8
DL DTW-RDU MAY 5>4 JUN 5>4 JUL 5>4
DL INL-MSP JAN 0.8>1.7 FEB 0.7>1.7 MAR 0.7>1.7 APR 0.7>1.7 MAY 0.7>1.7 JUN 0.7>1.7 JUL 0.7>1.7
DL JFK-STT APR 0.9>0.3 MAY 1.0>0.3 JUN 1.0>0.3 JUL 1.0>0.3
DL JFK-SXM APR 0.9>0.1 MAY 1.0>0.1 JUN 1.0>0.2 JUL 1.0>0.1
DL SLC-ASE APR 1.1>2 MAY 1.0>1.8
DL SLC-CVG MAY 1.0>1.8


Thank you for positively proving that, without any doubt, the end of the world is near.

:roll:
 
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flymco753
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion 2017

Sun Nov 19, 2017 4:54 pm

Either SRQ is meant to be a mileage burn or DL is planning on cutting the route, which I wouldn’t be surprised to see because round trip fares for this winter averaging $600 RT.
 
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion 2017

Sun Nov 19, 2017 5:55 pm

They are not going to cut DTW-SRQ, it only operates Saturdays. Saturday flights, except for maybe the late-evening departures on DL during peak late-winter / spring break periods are peak time flights and are always at premium versus mid-week flights. Those are peak travel days to/from Florida and they price it accordingly. SRQ always has a premium versus TPA or MCO.
 
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klm617
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion 2017

Sun Nov 19, 2017 8:17 pm

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
Sigh......always glass half empty for you. Nevertheless, I'll do the analysis and you'll continue to claim that DL is screwing DTW.
Nothing really stands out on that list and its basically normal fluctuations. Again how scheduling is done they load a long-term default schedule that typically is a baseline of what was flown the year prior and tends to has more frequencies loaded because it doesn't necessarily reflect the year-over trend of fewer frequencies on larger aircraft as more 50 seaters come out, and the 70/76 seater flown down, and they are backfilled by mainline.

PHL & BDL we discussed last week as going all-mainline for the first time in a while.
RDU shows up this week, going from 2x mainline & 3x 2-class RJs to 4x mainline (2x MD88 & 2x 717 starting in May. Its actually a slight increase in seats on one less frequency.
Again part of the long-term trend as 50 seat RJs come out of the network.

klm617 wrote:
Another bad week for Detroit. Evey where in the Delta system additions but Detroit has nothing but reductions.

DL DTW-BDL MAY 5>4
DL DTW-CAK MAY 4>3
DL DTW-CVG MAY 6>5
DL DTW-ITH MAR 1.9>3 APR 1.9>3 MAY 1.9>3 JUN 1.8>3 JUL 1.9>3
DL DTW-MLI MAY 3>1.8
DL DTW-RDU MAY 5>4 JUN 5>4 JUL 5>4



So how do you justify all the other additions. Are those flights to ATL, MSP and SLC going from mainline to RJs I think not. The RJ point is mute really just replace the RJ with mainline and keep the frequency the same. Otherwise it's a loss for Detroit.
 
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flymco753
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion 2017

Sun Nov 19, 2017 9:42 pm

BTW with the JV, I bet a 2nd ICN flight will be added regardless if it’s DL or KE, probably DL because there’s more 350s that will need to be used. I just think they’ll do it to strengthen the TPAC network, shifting the current ICN flight to an 11am departure than adding the new one to a 4:30pm departure.
 
TryToFlySomeday
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion 2017

Sun Nov 19, 2017 10:26 pm

Ok seriously can someone ban the DTW trolls? They make the whole state of Michigan look like fools.
 
BenflysDTW
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion 2017

Mon Nov 20, 2017 1:31 am

flymco753 wrote:
BTW with the JV, I bet a 2nd ICN flight will be added regardless if it’s DL or KE, probably DL because there’s more 350s that will need to be used. I just think they’ll do it to strengthen the TPAC network, shifting the current ICN flight to an 11am departure than adding the new one to a 4:30pm departure.


Or MSP will get ICN first... but in my opinion a second daily Detroit service would make more sense.
 
N415XJ
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion 2017

Mon Nov 20, 2017 2:43 am

flymco753 wrote:
BTW with the JV, I bet a 2nd ICN flight will be added regardless if it’s DL or KE, probably DL because there’s more 350s that will need to be used. I just think they’ll do it to strengthen the TPAC network, shifting the current ICN flight to an 11am departure than adding the new one to a 4:30pm departure.

Seeing KE metal here would be spectacular. If that were to happen, I assume it would be with a 772, at least at first. The 789 doesn't have the legs to make it from ICN to DTW, does it?
 
2Holer4Longhaul
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion 2017

Mon Nov 20, 2017 3:30 am

N415XJ wrote:
flymco753 wrote:
BTW with the JV, I bet a 2nd ICN flight will be added regardless if it’s DL or KE, probably DL because there’s more 350s that will need to be used. I just think they’ll do it to strengthen the TPAC network, shifting the current ICN flight to an 11am departure than adding the new one to a 4:30pm departure.

Seeing KE metal here would be spectacular. If that were to happen, I assume it would be with a 772, at least at first. The 789 doesn't have the legs to make it from ICN to DTW, does it?

Considering that Norwegian's comically dense 789s can fly FCO-LAX, I am sure KE's 789s can fly ICN-DTW (which is only 300 miles longer).
 
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flymco753
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion 2017

Mon Nov 20, 2017 3:56 am

2Holer4Longhaul wrote:
N415XJ wrote:
flymco753 wrote:
BTW with the JV, I bet a 2nd ICN flight will be added regardless if it’s DL or KE, probably DL because there’s more 350s that will need to be used. I just think they’ll do it to strengthen the TPAC network, shifting the current ICN flight to an 11am departure than adding the new one to a 4:30pm departure.

Seeing KE metal here would be spectacular. If that were to happen, I assume it would be with a 772, at least at first. The 789 doesn't have the legs to make it from ICN to DTW, does it?

Considering that Norwegian's comically dense 789s can fly FCO-LAX, I am sure KE's 789s can fly ICN-DTW (which is only 300 miles longer).
Should be doable but with the amount of 350s coming on line, DL would probably want to utilize it there as opposed to KE doing it.
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion 2017

Mon Nov 20, 2017 4:07 am

MSP is more likely to get ICN service before DTW gets a second-daily flight.
 
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion 2017

Mon Nov 20, 2017 4:07 am

flymco753 wrote:
2Holer4Longhaul wrote:
N415XJ wrote:
Seeing KE metal here would be spectacular. If that were to happen, I assume it would be with a 772, at least at first. The 789 doesn't have the legs to make it from ICN to DTW, does it?

Considering that Norwegian's comically dense 789s can fly FCO-LAX, I am sure KE's 789s can fly ICN-DTW (which is only 300 miles longer).
Should be doable but with the amount of 350s coming on line, DL would probably want to utilize it there as opposed to KE doing it.

That depends on DL's other plans, particularly with regards to the 777s needing some midlife maintenance and Seattle apparently turning into a true hub someday.
Given the probable metal-neutral JV, it honestly could go to either airline.
 
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klm617
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion 2017

Mon Nov 20, 2017 1:19 pm

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
MSP is more likely to get ICN service before DTW gets a second-daily flight.


Coming from you I will take that as meaning we won't see KE or a second Delta flight to ICN here in DTW anytime soon. Shame one of Delta's top hubs to Asia and we have less service to ICN than both ATL and SEA. Albeit at Second DTW-ICN is way better than a ICN-MSP flight as any potential MSP connections can be handled very easily by either DTW or SEA.
 
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klm617
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion 2017

Mon Nov 20, 2017 1:23 pm

When the KE/DL JV finally gets cleared maybe we can get some dedicated cargo flights on KE out of Detroit. Again we have this Aerotroplis that everyone talks about but yet not one single dedicated bulk cargo flight to Detroit what's wrong with this picture as As southeast Michigan and Northern Ohio is on of the biggest manufacturing bases in the country. Tome to gove some tax breaks to a carrier to open a freight hub at YIP. Again we let revenue just slip away here.
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion 2017

Mon Nov 20, 2017 1:34 pm

YIP already is a de-facto cargo hub for the automotive industry. Air cargo requirements for the automotive industry with its just-in-time and multi-tiered supply chain is vastly different than other industries. They require on-demand, ad-hoc, and expedited air cargo and tend to not rely upon a scheduled, dedicated air cargo hub.

Air cargo for the auto industry is very expensive and typically only used in expedite/shortage/line shut-down situations. Shipping via water from Asia, truck within the US, and limited use of rail (steel coils & truck frames) are the modes of transport used for the auto industry.

The Kalitta / Ameristar / JetUSA companies all specialize in these services. Its basically pick-up the phone, on-demand, need an airplane to fly parts.
A lot of the air cargo for the auto industry coming out of China goes via the parcel carriers like FedEx.
 
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klm617
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion 2017

Mon Nov 20, 2017 2:11 pm

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
YIP already is a de-facto cargo hub for the automotive industry. Air cargo requirements for the automotive industry with its just-in-time and multi-tiered supply chain is vastly different than other industries. They require on-demand, ad-hoc, and expedited air cargo and tend to not rely upon a scheduled, dedicated air cargo hub.

Air cargo for the auto industry is very expensive and typically only used in expedite/shortage/line shut-down situations. Shipping via water from Asia, truck within the US, and limited use of rail (steel coils & truck frames) are the modes of transport used for the auto industry.

The Kalitta / Ameristar / JetUSA companies all specialize in these services. Its basically pick-up the phone, on-demand, need an airplane to fly parts.
A lot of the air cargo for the auto industry coming out of China goes via the parcel carriers like FedEx.



Wth that being said what would be then that would attract a bulk cargo carrier to add flights to Detroit. While you theory is for the most part good for North America it works very differently for cargo coming from Asia and Europe as space is booked on international dedicated cargo flights usually via ORD and trucked to the Detroit area so why not just bring those flights right to Detroit once or twice a week. Expedite charters from Asia and Europe are not operated. One other question and this has been brought up before why is there no cargo unloader available at DTW to unload 747s. There is a lot of stuff at DTW that isn't happening that should be. Come on PIT has a twice weekly QR cargo flight on would think with the right kind of marketing we could at least get the same.
 
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flymco753
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion 2017

Mon Nov 20, 2017 2:35 pm

klm617 wrote:
PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
YIP already is a de-facto cargo hub for the automotive industry. Air cargo requirements for the automotive industry with its just-in-time and multi-tiered supply chain is vastly different than other industries. They require on-demand, ad-hoc, and expedited air cargo and tend to not rely upon a scheduled, dedicated air cargo hub.

Air cargo for the auto industry is very expensive and typically only used in expedite/shortage/line shut-down situations. Shipping via water from Asia, truck within the US, and limited use of rail (steel coils & truck frames) are the modes of transport used for the auto industry.

The Kalitta / Ameristar / JetUSA companies all specialize in these services. Its basically pick-up the phone, on-demand, need an airplane to fly parts.
A lot of the air cargo for the auto industry coming out of China goes via the parcel carriers like FedEx.



Wth that being said what would be then that would attract a bulk cargo carrier to add flights to Detroit. While you theory is for the most part good for North America it works very differently for cargo coming from Asia and Europe as space is booked on international dedicated cargo flights usually via ORD and trucked to the Detroit area so why not just bring those flights right to Detroit once or twice a week. Expedite charters from Asia and Europe are not operated. One other question and this has been brought up before why is there no cargo unloader available at DTW to unload 747s. There is a lot of stuff at DTW that isn't happening that should be. Come on PIT has a twice weekly QR cargo flight on would think with the right kind of marketing we could at least get the same.
It's also not worth giving QR Cargo some odd million of dollars when there is bigger fish to fry like more Latin America flying (particularly a Mexican ULCC), DUB or BCN to start, a DXB flight for connections to India, and another Asian carrier. Domestically, there's so many holes that need to be filled that getting a cargo carrier into DTW seems a bit unrealistic right now.
 
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klm617
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion 2017

Mon Nov 20, 2017 3:09 pm

flymco753 wrote:
klm617 wrote:
PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
YIP already is a de-facto cargo hub for the automotive industry. Air cargo requirements for the automotive industry with its just-in-time and multi-tiered supply chain is vastly different than other industries. They require on-demand, ad-hoc, and expedited air cargo and tend to not rely upon a scheduled, dedicated air cargo hub.

Air cargo for the auto industry is very expensive and typically only used in expedite/shortage/line shut-down situations. Shipping via water from Asia, truck within the US, and limited use of rail (steel coils & truck frames) are the modes of transport used for the auto industry.

The Kalitta / Ameristar / JetUSA companies all specialize in these services. Its basically pick-up the phone, on-demand, need an airplane to fly parts.
A lot of the air cargo for the auto industry coming out of China goes via the parcel carriers like FedEx.



Wth that being said what would be then that would attract a bulk cargo carrier to add flights to Detroit. While you theory is for the most part good for North America it works very differently for cargo coming from Asia and Europe as space is booked on international dedicated cargo flights usually via ORD and trucked to the Detroit area so why not just bring those flights right to Detroit once or twice a week. Expedite charters from Asia and Europe are not operated. One other question and this has been brought up before why is there no cargo unloader available at DTW to unload 747s. There is a lot of stuff at DTW that isn't happening that should be. Come on PIT has a twice weekly QR cargo flight on would think with the right kind of marketing we could at least get the same.
It's also not worth giving QR Cargo some odd million of dollars when there is bigger fish to fry like more Latin America flying (particularly a Mexican ULCC), DUB or BCN to start, a DXB flight for connections to India, and another Asian carrier. Domestically, there's so many holes that need to be filled that getting a cargo carrier into DTW seems a bit unrealistic right now.


I agree but none of that is happening either.
 
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flymco753
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion 2017

Mon Nov 20, 2017 3:27 pm

klm617 wrote:
flymco753 wrote:
klm617 wrote:


Wth that being said what would be then that would attract a bulk cargo carrier to add flights to Detroit. While you theory is for the most part good for North America it works very differently for cargo coming from Asia and Europe as space is booked on international dedicated cargo flights usually via ORD and trucked to the Detroit area so why not just bring those flights right to Detroit once or twice a week. Expedite charters from Asia and Europe are not operated. One other question and this has been brought up before why is there no cargo unloader available at DTW to unload 747s. There is a lot of stuff at DTW that isn't happening that should be. Come on PIT has a twice weekly QR cargo flight on would think with the right kind of marketing we could at least get the same.
It's also not worth giving QR Cargo some odd million of dollars when there is bigger fish to fry like more Latin America flying (particularly a Mexican ULCC), DUB or BCN to start, a DXB flight for connections to India, and another Asian carrier. Domestically, there's so many holes that need to be filled that getting a cargo carrier into DTW seems a bit unrealistic right now.


I agree but none of that is happening either.
I don't see why Volaris won't do DTW when they get their new planes, 3x weekly to GDL would be fine. DL won't do Spain so DUB is most likely, EK will probably be in Detroit by 2020 or shortly after, so they're all realistic possibilities, it just takes time to build when you're not throwing a ton of money at someone.
 
GSP psgr
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion 2017

Tue Nov 21, 2017 11:12 pm

I would have to think the decision to move more internationally equipped 752s to the Delta One Domestic Operations would be a blow for seeing DTW-MAN/DUB/DUS, etc any time soon.

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