LAXdude1023
Posts: 4907
Joined: Thu Sep 07, 2006 3:16 pm

Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion 2017

Thu Dec 07, 2017 5:31 pm

dtw2hyd wrote:
LAXdude1023 wrote:
That isnt remotely what I did. Data speaks for itself.

The link you posted is POLISH AMERICANS, not Polish Immigrants. Where did I say Detroit didnt have a large community of Polish descendants? What they dont have is a large number of Polish immigrants.

Just because you dont like the data, dont shoot the messenger. Its indisputable. I did take into consideration transplants. Thats were the 10k figure comes from. Total number of Polish Immigrants in the Detroit area.

As for how many came since immigration started, thats not remotely relevant since so many of them are dead. What matters is whats there now.


So only fresh immigrants contribute to travel growth back to their homeland??

If you torture data long enough, it will confess to anything.


How come you guys keep dancing around the fact that Ive already given you the total number of Polish Immigrants in the Detroit area: 10,000. How on earth is it plausible that a metro area with 10,000 immigrants to a specific country and has no business ties to said country could make a profitable flight? Do any of you even work in this industry?

This isnt torturing the data, its just looking at it. Im not manipulating it at all. It doesnt tell you what you want to hear but that isnt my problem.
It is what it is...
 
dtw2hyd
Posts: 5016
Joined: Wed Jan 09, 2013 12:11 pm

Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion 2017

Thu Dec 07, 2017 5:39 pm

LAXdude1023 wrote:
How come you guys keep dancing around the fact that Ive already given you the total number of Polish Immigrants in the Detroit area: 10,000. How on earth is it plausible that a metro area with 10,000 immigrants to a specific country and has no business ties to said country could make a profitable flight? Do any of you even work in this industry?

This isnt torturing the data, its just looking at it. Im not manipulating it at all. It doesnt tell you what you want to hear but that isnt my problem.


That is because Detroit is no longer a "niche" market. It is nytimes most exciting city.in America.

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/20/trav ... ntown.html
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
Posts: 6506
Joined: Mon Jan 28, 2002 11:45 am

Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion 2017

Thu Dec 07, 2017 5:40 pm

Polish immigration to Metro Detroit has not been that significant in the past 30 years. The peak wave of immigrants arrived in Metro Detroit from Post WWII through the 1970s.
In the past 30 years most Polish immigrants have gone to New York or Chicago.

Most of the first generation immigrants are dead, the 2nd generation are mostly in their 60-80s. The vast majority of Metro Detroit's polish community are now 3rd & 4th generation and have no meaningful ties to Poland.
 
klm617
Posts: 1808
Joined: Sat Jul 04, 2015 8:57 pm

Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion 2017

Thu Dec 07, 2017 5:46 pm

LAXdude1023 wrote:
klm617 wrote:
LAXdude1023 wrote:

TRUST YOU????? Yeah....no. There is not one shred of data based on travel pattern and market segments what would support any service from Detroit to Poland. Your stories dont show anything of substance.

Detroit's Polish foreign born immigrant community is small. You cannot escape that.



How many passengers were flying between MSP and KEF before FI started flights there. I'm sure they didn't start service there based on the numbers of O/D passengers that flew between these 2 cities. Where DTW-Poland is concerned bring the service and people will use it.


Thats a terrible comparrison. FI is a budget carrier with low operating costs. They fly a 757 which is much cheaper to operate, the stage length is much shorter, the number of frames required is fewer, and they started service to gain the budget conscious traveler to places like LON, PAR, AMS, etc.

Airlines and hubs that operate on a "build it and they will come" strategy go out of business or are bought out. Skybus and UA's "hublet" experiment in SAT come to mind.



The 787 has great economics for a route like DTW-WAW. MSP-KEF is a great example if they would have just looked at the O/D numbers as you do that route would have never been started just because it doesn't fit your argument doesn't mean it's not a appropriate example. Lets just say we don't know if DTW-WAW is viable until LOT decides to operate it until then we are both right with different views of the situation I respect and accept your view your view but for some reason you have trouble accepting anything as viable that may be outside of the criteria that you have been trained to think by.
Last edited by klm617 on Thu Dec 07, 2017 5:48 pm, edited 1 time in total.
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
 
LAXdude1023
Posts: 4907
Joined: Thu Sep 07, 2006 3:16 pm

Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion 2017

Thu Dec 07, 2017 5:46 pm

dtw2hyd wrote:
LAXdude1023 wrote:
How come you guys keep dancing around the fact that Ive already given you the total number of Polish Immigrants in the Detroit area: 10,000. How on earth is it plausible that a metro area with 10,000 immigrants to a specific country and has no business ties to said country could make a profitable flight? Do any of you even work in this industry?

This isnt torturing the data, its just looking at it. Im not manipulating it at all. It doesnt tell you what you want to hear but that isnt my problem.


That is because Detroit is no longer a "niche" market. It is nytimes most exciting city.in America.

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/20/trav ... ntown.html


First off, I love Detroit. Im Lebanese decent and have spent ample time there and have lots of family. I love the transition its going through and it seems to be on the up and up which is wonderful.

That said, you dont get to make things up to make an argument that you like. Detroit's Polish community is what it is. I havent said one thing that isnt factually correct on this issue.
It is what it is...
 
compensateme
Posts: 2147
Joined: Wed Jan 28, 2009 4:17 am

Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion 2017

Thu Dec 07, 2017 6:08 pm

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
Polish immigration to Metro Detroit has not been that significant in the past 30 years. The peak wave of immigrants arrived in Metro Detroit from Post WWII through the 1970s.
In the past 30 years most Polish immigrants have gone to New York or Chicago.

Most of the first generation immigrants are dead, the 2nd generation are mostly in their 60-80s. The vast majority of Metro Detroit's polish community are now 3rd & 4th generation and have no meaningful ties to Poland.


There is significant ethic travel to Poland -- there's a couple of local travel agencies in (one in Sterling Heights, the other Hamtramck) that specialize in such, including organizing the occasional bus charter to ORD/YYZ. That said, even if the traffic was enough to fill regularly scheduled service (it isn't), it's not of quality (re: price sensitivity) to warrant regular service.

FWIW, per a UofM study, here's Metro Detroit's estimated foreign-born population in 2014:

01. India - 46,000
02. Iraq - 36,000
03. Mexico 34,400
04. Canada - 24,300
05. China - 18,000
06. Lebanon - 17,800
07. Philippines - 12,700
08. Germany - 11,600
09. Korea - 11,200
10. Poland - 11,000

The largest growth in recent years has primarily been from the Asia, the Middle East and India. Note that most believe the Mexican-born population is heavily underestimated -- most of it being undocumented -- but it's not like these people are traveling by air, anyway...
You're not the CEO; you were a menial aircraft support mechanic intern, and that was four years ago.
 
LAXdude1023
Posts: 4907
Joined: Thu Sep 07, 2006 3:16 pm

Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion 2017

Thu Dec 07, 2017 6:08 pm

klm617 wrote:
LAXdude1023 wrote:
klm617 wrote:


How many passengers were flying between MSP and KEF before FI started flights there. I'm sure they didn't start service there based on the numbers of O/D passengers that flew between these 2 cities. Where DTW-Poland is concerned bring the service and people will use it.


Thats a terrible comparrison. FI is a budget carrier with low operating costs. They fly a 757 which is much cheaper to operate, the stage length is much shorter, the number of frames required is fewer, and they started service to gain the budget conscious traveler to places like LON, PAR, AMS, etc.

Airlines and hubs that operate on a "build it and they will come" strategy go out of business or are bought out. Skybus and UA's "hublet" experiment in SAT come to mind.



The 787 has great economics for a route like DTW-WAW. MSP-KEF is a great example if they would have just looked at the O/D numbers as you do that route would have never been started just because it doesn't fit your argument doesn't mean it's not a appropriate example. Lets just say we don't know if DTW-WAW is viable until LOT decides to operate it until then we are both right with different views of the situation I respect and accept your view your view but for some reason you have trouble accepting anything as viable that may be outside of the criteria that you have been trained to think by.


I am a very data driven person for sure. I do demographic statistics part time. I study migration trends heavily and it helps with my work in the industry.

The Detroit area is fueled heavily by immigrants from the Middle East. It used to be fueled by both European and Middle Eastern immigration. However, when the city fell on hard times, the Europeans stopped coming. The Arabs on the other hand never did. I did leave out Indian immigration because that is also fueling some international growth in Detroit.

I get that Detroit still has large Polish cultural elements. I get that. I know there are still large number of Polish decent there. However, the Poles and Europeans are no longer defining the city. Hamtramck is a perfect example. It once was the center of Polish cultural center of Michigan. Now, its overwhelmingly Middle Eastern (especially Yemeni). Its not the same place it was.

Going through historical data of DTW-WAW, it was a larger local market 20 years ago than it is now. Meanwhile, O&D to the Middle East and Asia is going up. Japan and Western Europe remain steady.

Get that Detroit has many historical cultural elements to it, but that doesnt drive O&D. Think of it like San Antonio in a way. Its a city that has 1.4 million Mexicans in the metro area, however only 8% were born in Mexico. Compare that to Dallas or Houston which have 1.7 and 1.8 million Mexicans in their metro areas but their Mexican communities are 40% foreign born. As such, the O&D from DFW and IAH to Mexico are many times what SAT delivers. In this scenario IAH and DFW are Chicago and SAT is Detroit.
It is what it is...
 
dtw2hyd
Posts: 5016
Joined: Wed Jan 09, 2013 12:11 pm

Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion 2017

Thu Dec 07, 2017 6:10 pm

LAXdude1023 wrote:
...
That said, you dont get to make things up to make an argument that you like. Detroit's Polish community is what it is. I havent said one thing that isnt factually correct on this issue.


Like I said in the first reply to your post, my comment is not specific to Polish immigrant population. In the past, you posted similar data about Indians and similar claims. If that is true why are there so many slow and confused drivers with out of state plates on Michigan roads?
 
LAXdude1023
Posts: 4907
Joined: Thu Sep 07, 2006 3:16 pm

Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion 2017

Thu Dec 07, 2017 6:25 pm

dtw2hyd wrote:
LAXdude1023 wrote:
...
That said, you dont get to make things up to make an argument that you like. Detroit's Polish community is what it is. I havent said one thing that isnt factually correct on this issue.


Like I said in the first reply to your post, my comment is not specific to Polish immigrant population. In the past, you posted similar data about Indians and similar claims. If that is true why are there so many slow and confused drivers with out of state plates on Michigan roads?


I post data. It’s not false. How you interpret it is your deal.
It is what it is...
 
Alphazone
Posts: 6
Joined: Wed Nov 24, 2010 5:22 pm

Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion 2017

Thu Dec 07, 2017 8:29 pm

Actually on the topic of DTW-Poland traffic, klm617 is right in hypothesizing that LH's flight is the primary reason LO does not serve DTW.
Being a child of Polish immigrants in Metro Detroit, I typically fly via AMS to KRK or WAW-- others in Detroit Polish diaspora take LH. Yet others drive to YYZ or sometimes ORD for the cheapest fare. Of course the first- and second-generation Polish population of Metro Detroit is dwarfed by those of Chicagoland and NY/NJ, but as other posters have mentioned, there is a notable historical connection and Polish community in Metro Detroit. Additionally the University of Michigan - Ann Arbor boasts possibly the strongest Polish department in the country.
 
klm617
Posts: 1808
Joined: Sat Jul 04, 2015 8:57 pm

Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion 2017

Thu Dec 07, 2017 10:23 pm

LAXdude1023 wrote:
klm617 wrote:
LAXdude1023 wrote:

Thats a terrible comparrison. FI is a budget carrier with low operating costs. They fly a 757 which is much cheaper to operate, the stage length is much shorter, the number of frames required is fewer, and they started service to gain the budget conscious traveler to places like LON, PAR, AMS, etc.

Airlines and hubs that operate on a "build it and they will come" strategy go out of business or are bought out. Skybus and UA's "hublet" experiment in SAT come to mind.



The 787 has great economics for a route like DTW-WAW. MSP-KEF is a great example if they would have just looked at the O/D numbers as you do that route would have never been started just because it doesn't fit your argument doesn't mean it's not a appropriate example. Lets just say we don't know if DTW-WAW is viable until LOT decides to operate it until then we are both right with different views of the situation I respect and accept your view your view but for some reason you have trouble accepting anything as viable that may be outside of the criteria that you have been trained to think by.


I am a very data driven person for sure. I do demographic statistics part time. I study migration trends heavily and it helps with my work in the industry.

The Detroit area is fueled heavily by immigrants from the Middle East. It used to be fueled by both European and Middle Eastern immigration. However, when the city fell on hard times, the Europeans stopped coming. The Arabs on the other hand never did. I did leave out Indian immigration because that is also fueling some international growth in Detroit.

I get that Detroit still has large Polish cultural elements. I get that. I know there are still large number of Polish decent there. However, the Poles and Europeans are no longer defining the city. Hamtramck is a perfect example. It once was the center of Polish cultural center of Michigan. Now, its overwhelmingly Middle Eastern (especially Yemeni). Its not the same place it was.

Going through historical data of DTW-WAW, it was a larger local market 20 years ago than it is now. Meanwhile, O&D to the Middle East and Asia is going up. Japan and Western Europe remain steady.

Get that Detroit has many historical cultural elements to it, but that doesnt drive O&D. Think of it like San Antonio in a way. Its a city that has 1.4 million Mexicans in the metro area, however only 8% were born in Mexico. Compare that to Dallas or Houston which have 1.7 and 1.8 million Mexicans in their metro areas but their Mexican communities are 40% foreign born. As such, the O&D from DFW and IAH to Mexico are many times what SAT delivers. In this scenario IAH and DFW are Chicago and SAT is Detroit.


And part of the reason for that is most summers 20 years ago there was direct links between DTW and WAW with either LOT or ATA flying the route during the summer. I suggest you further your study with a poll of people who fly between Detroit and Poland that if there was a nonstop would they use it instead of just crunching numbers a computer spits out.
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
 
TryToFlySomeday
Posts: 139
Joined: Wed Aug 30, 2017 9:51 pm

Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion 2017

Thu Dec 07, 2017 10:33 pm

I feel like klm617's the kind of guy who thinks a DTW-Baghdad flight could work, cause of all the Iraqis in Hamtramack. That's not the point. The point is airlines go for where they think there is money.

Otherwise RJ wouldn't be flying to DTW.
 
LAXdude1023
Posts: 4907
Joined: Thu Sep 07, 2006 3:16 pm

Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion 2017

Thu Dec 07, 2017 10:46 pm

klm617 wrote:
LAXdude1023 wrote:
klm617 wrote:


The 787 has great economics for a route like DTW-WAW. MSP-KEF is a great example if they would have just looked at the O/D numbers as you do that route would have never been started just because it doesn't fit your argument doesn't mean it's not a appropriate example. Lets just say we don't know if DTW-WAW is viable until LOT decides to operate it until then we are both right with different views of the situation I respect and accept your view your view but for some reason you have trouble accepting anything as viable that may be outside of the criteria that you have been trained to think by.


I am a very data driven person for sure. I do demographic statistics part time. I study migration trends heavily and it helps with my work in the industry.

The Detroit area is fueled heavily by immigrants from the Middle East. It used to be fueled by both European and Middle Eastern immigration. However, when the city fell on hard times, the Europeans stopped coming. The Arabs on the other hand never did. I did leave out Indian immigration because that is also fueling some international growth in Detroit.

I get that Detroit still has large Polish cultural elements. I get that. I know there are still large number of Polish decent there. However, the Poles and Europeans are no longer defining the city. Hamtramck is a perfect example. It once was the center of Polish cultural center of Michigan. Now, its overwhelmingly Middle Eastern (especially Yemeni). Its not the same place it was.

Going through historical data of DTW-WAW, it was a larger local market 20 years ago than it is now. Meanwhile, O&D to the Middle East and Asia is going up. Japan and Western Europe remain steady.

Get that Detroit has many historical cultural elements to it, but that doesnt drive O&D. Think of it like San Antonio in a way. Its a city that has 1.4 million Mexicans in the metro area, however only 8% were born in Mexico. Compare that to Dallas or Houston which have 1.7 and 1.8 million Mexicans in their metro areas but their Mexican communities are 40% foreign born. As such, the O&D from DFW and IAH to Mexico are many times what SAT delivers. In this scenario IAH and DFW are Chicago and SAT is Detroit.


And part of the reason for that is most summers 20 years ago there was direct links between DTW and WAW with either LOT or ATA flying the route during the summer. I suggest you further your study with a poll of people who fly between Detroit and Poland that if there was a nonstop would they use it instead of just crunching numbers a computer spits out.


Im sorry man, but youre not in a position to give me career advise.

LOT never served Detroit.

ATA never served Poland.

Charter destinations are one offs. Perhaps some carrier some time flew charters between Detroit and Poland but that wont make any case for scheduled service.

The reason for the decline isnt because of charters, its because the Polish community is generations old not recent immigrants.
It is what it is...
 
klm617
Posts: 1808
Joined: Sat Jul 04, 2015 8:57 pm

Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion 2017

Thu Dec 07, 2017 11:18 pm

LAXdude1023 wrote:
klm617 wrote:
LAXdude1023 wrote:

I am a very data driven person for sure. I do demographic statistics part time. I study migration trends heavily and it helps with my work in the industry.

The Detroit area is fueled heavily by immigrants from the Middle East. It used to be fueled by both European and Middle Eastern immigration. However, when the city fell on hard times, the Europeans stopped coming. The Arabs on the other hand never did. I did leave out Indian immigration because that is also fueling some international growth in Detroit.

I get that Detroit still has large Polish cultural elements. I get that. I know there are still large number of Polish decent there. However, the Poles and Europeans are no longer defining the city. Hamtramck is a perfect example. It once was the center of Polish cultural center of Michigan. Now, its overwhelmingly Middle Eastern (especially Yemeni). Its not the same place it was.

Going through historical data of DTW-WAW, it was a larger local market 20 years ago than it is now. Meanwhile, O&D to the Middle East and Asia is going up. Japan and Western Europe remain steady.

Get that Detroit has many historical cultural elements to it, but that doesnt drive O&D. Think of it like San Antonio in a way. Its a city that has 1.4 million Mexicans in the metro area, however only 8% were born in Mexico. Compare that to Dallas or Houston which have 1.7 and 1.8 million Mexicans in their metro areas but their Mexican communities are 40% foreign born. As such, the O&D from DFW and IAH to Mexico are many times what SAT delivers. In this scenario IAH and DFW are Chicago and SAT is Detroit.


And part of the reason for that is most summers 20 years ago there was direct links between DTW and WAW with either LOT or ATA flying the route during the summer. I suggest you further your study with a poll of people who fly between Detroit and Poland that if there was a nonstop would they use it instead of just crunching numbers a computer spits out.


Im sorry man, but youre not in a position to give me career advise.

LOT never served Detroit.

ATA never served Poland.

Charter destinations are one offs. Perhaps some carrier some time flew charters between Detroit and Poland but that wont make any case for scheduled service.

The reason for the decline isnt because of charters, its because the Polish community is generations old not recent immigrants.



Check you facts LOT did DTW-YMX-WAW I know my wife flew this routing and they weren't one off charters.
ATA flew DTW-SNN-WAW with a 757 check your facts. DTW WAW was operated with a DC8 and IL62 on LOT. ATA flew that routing 2 summers in a row not one off.
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
 
klm617
Posts: 1808
Joined: Sat Jul 04, 2015 8:57 pm

Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion 2017

Thu Dec 07, 2017 11:26 pm

TryToFlySomeday wrote:
I feel like klm617's the kind of guy who thinks a DTW-Baghdad flight could work, cause of all the Iraqis in Hamtramack. That's not the point. The point is airlines go for where they think there is money.

Otherwise RJ wouldn't be flying to DTW.


If flights were allowed between the USA and Iraq you can bet your life somebody would be flying it same with BEY-DTW.
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
 
LAXdude1023
Posts: 4907
Joined: Thu Sep 07, 2006 3:16 pm

Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion 2017

Thu Dec 07, 2017 11:35 pm

klm617 wrote:
TryToFlySomeday wrote:
I feel like klm617's the kind of guy who thinks a DTW-Baghdad flight could work, cause of all the Iraqis in Hamtramack. That's not the point. The point is airlines go for where they think there is money.

Otherwise RJ wouldn't be flying to DTW.


If flights were allowed between the USA and Iraq you can bet your life somebody would be flying it same with BEY-DTW.


Its a basic lack of understanding of how the airline industry works. Thats all I can come up with here.
It is what it is...
 
TryToFlySomeday
Posts: 139
Joined: Wed Aug 30, 2017 9:51 pm

Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion 2017

Fri Dec 08, 2017 12:32 am

klm617 wrote:
TryToFlySomeday wrote:
I feel like klm617's the kind of guy who thinks a DTW-Baghdad flight could work, cause of all the Iraqis in Hamtramack. That's not the point. The point is airlines go for where they think there is money.

Otherwise RJ wouldn't be flying to DTW.


If flights were allowed between the USA and Iraq you can bet your life somebody would be flying it same with BEY-DTW.

BEY-DTW, I could see that. But if flights were allowed from everywhere to everywhere, I think Iraqi airlines would flock to JFK first.
 
johns624
Posts: 1579
Joined: Mon Jul 07, 2008 11:09 pm

Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion 2017

Fri Dec 08, 2017 12:58 am

klm617 wrote:

The 787 has great economics for a route like DTW-WAW. MSP-KEF is a great example if they would have just looked at the O/D numbers as you do that route would have never been started just because it doesn't fit your argument doesn't mean it's not a appropriate example.
KEF is a hub. People from MSP aren't flying TO KEF, they are flying THRU it.
 
klm617
Posts: 1808
Joined: Sat Jul 04, 2015 8:57 pm

Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion 2017

Fri Dec 08, 2017 1:55 am

LAXdude1023 wrote:
klm617 wrote:
TryToFlySomeday wrote:
I feel like klm617's the kind of guy who thinks a DTW-Baghdad flight could work, cause of all the Iraqis in Hamtramack. That's not the point. The point is airlines go for where they think there is money.

Otherwise RJ wouldn't be flying to DTW.


If flights were allowed between the USA and Iraq you can bet your life somebody would be flying it same with BEY-DTW.


Its a basic lack of understanding of how the airline industry works. Thats all I can come up with here.



I'm trying my best to help you understand.
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
 
klm617
Posts: 1808
Joined: Sat Jul 04, 2015 8:57 pm

Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion 2017

Fri Dec 08, 2017 1:57 am

TryToFlySomeday wrote:
klm617 wrote:
TryToFlySomeday wrote:
I feel like klm617's the kind of guy who thinks a DTW-Baghdad flight could work, cause of all the Iraqis in Hamtramack. That's not the point. The point is airlines go for where they think there is money.

Otherwise RJ wouldn't be flying to DTW.


If flights were allowed between the USA and Iraq you can bet your life somebody would be flying it same with BEY-DTW.

BEY-DTW, I could see that. But if flights were allowed from everywhere to everywhere, I think Iraqi airlines would flock to JFK first.



You do know that Iraqi Airways applied to fly DTW-BGW and even had an office in Southfield.
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
 
klm617
Posts: 1808
Joined: Sat Jul 04, 2015 8:57 pm

Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion 2017

Fri Dec 08, 2017 2:00 am

johns624 wrote:
klm617 wrote:

The 787 has great economics for a route like DTW-WAW. MSP-KEF is a great example if they would have just looked at the O/D numbers as you do that route would have never been started just because it doesn't fit your argument doesn't mean it's not a appropriate example.
KEF is a hub. People from MSP aren't flying TO KEF, they are flying THRU it.


What hub are the people flying to who are flying on the Delta flight and again I state before FI was flying this there was no MSP-KEF market but over the years the route was made viable so viable that Delta jumped in on it.
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
 
SESGDL
Posts: 2678
Joined: Sat Jan 13, 2001 6:25 am

Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion 2017

Fri Dec 08, 2017 2:13 am

klm617 wrote:
LAXdude1023 wrote:
klm617 wrote:

The Detroit area has on of the largest consecrations of Pols in the Squinted States so yes there is a market but since LO and LH are in the same alliance LH doesn't want to lose these customers in the Detroit area so they carry them over FRA rather than having LOT fly a nonstop to WAW


Just a friendly piece of advice...don’t develop such strong opinions on issues you don’t know anything about.

DTW-WAW is a very small air travel market. Even if you gave bleed the most generous estimates, you wouldn’t get close to filling an ERJ.

A large number of immigrants doesn’t mean they travel frequently to their homeland.


Likewise LAXdude I am greatly entrenched with the Polish population here in the Detroit area so I know what I am talking about. There is huge bleed from the Detroit area to YYZ and ORD because fares are outrageous out of Detroit and most poles who travel back an forth want a nonstop because their lack of command of the English language makes them fearful of having to make a connection at a large international airport so they chose the drove for cheaper fares and convenience. I had a friend who made a living out of driving people back and forth to YYZ for these reasons so I KNOW WHAT I'm talking about.


If only the airlines had employees like you in network planning who knew locals in the DTW area, then there’d be daily flights to WAW and every other city you claim the DTW market can support. Being from MSP I know a lot of Somalians, too bad that DL is suffocating the market and denying us our well deserved service to Mogadishu.

You have ZERO data to support your many outrageous claims, please stop making a mockery of these and many other threads. DTW’s a great city and a great hub but it gets the amount of service it gets due to economics, nothing more and nothing less. There is no vendetta against DTW and the market is not underserved.

Jeremy
 
LAXdude1023
Posts: 4907
Joined: Thu Sep 07, 2006 3:16 pm

Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion 2017

Fri Dec 08, 2017 2:42 am

klm617 wrote:
LAXdude1023 wrote:
klm617 wrote:

If flights were allowed between the USA and Iraq you can bet your life somebody would be flying it same with BEY-DTW.


Its a basic lack of understanding of how the airline industry works. Thats all I can come up with here.



I'm trying my best to help you understand.


Uhhhh...I’m not the one that needs help understanding the airline industry. You haven’t shown one piece of data to support your claims. I’ve provided data. You “know a guy”. You don’t know the slightest thing about the airline industry based on your posts.
It is what it is...
 
DTWorld
Posts: 85
Joined: Tue Jun 06, 2017 3:34 am

Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion 2017

Fri Dec 08, 2017 6:05 am

compensateme wrote:

FWIW, per a UofM study, here's Metro Detroit's estimated foreign-born population in 2014:

01. India - 46,000
02. Iraq - 36,000
03. Mexico 34,400
04. Canada - 24,300
05. China - 18,000
06. Lebanon - 17,800
07. Philippines - 12,700
08. Germany - 11,600
09. Korea - 11,200
10. Poland - 11,000

The largest growth in recent years has primarily been from the Asia, the Middle East and India. Note that most believe the Mexican-born population is heavily underestimated -- most of it being undocumented -- but it's not like these people are traveling by air, anyway...


I'd be curious to know what it is for Japan as there's a noticeable Japanese expat community in the Novi area. It's not unusual for me to go to 12 oaks mall and hear several conversations being spoken in Japanese.

I recognize ethnic traffic does not warrant a flight, but there's a large number of Japanese companies in the area. In the meantime sure, let's all see some on here speculate about these absurd claims because their sister's friend's neighbor's coworker's nephew's dog walker living in Rochester Hills is Polish and has been looking at airfare on Expedia for months for a trip to Poland he's been planning for years to scratch off his bucket list.

Alphazone wrote:
Actually on the topic of DTW-Poland traffic, klm617 is right in hypothesizing that LH's flight is the primary reason LO does not serve DTW.


What? He's now going to bash Lufthansa?!
 
compensateme
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion 2017

Fri Dec 08, 2017 6:43 am

DTWorld wrote:
I'd be curious to know what it is for Japan as there's a noticeable Japanese expat community in the Novi area. It's not unusual for me to go to 12 oaks mall and hear several conversations being spoken in Japanese.


Wayne State estimated the Japanese-born population living in Metro Detroit to be around 9,000 in 2013 (the latest numbers I could quickly find). Note these numbers are for permanent residents only; most Japanese residing in Metro Detroit are temporary, even if their visas have been extended for a generation. I assume Troy has a growing Japanese population as well; the Kroger at Coolidge/Maple added a fairly sizable selection of imported Japanese groceries a couple years ago (and the store, which was built as a Farmer Jack in the early 2000s, was already cramped to begin with).
You're not the CEO; you were a menial aircraft support mechanic intern, and that was four years ago.
 
klm617
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion 2017

Fri Dec 08, 2017 12:48 pm

compensateme wrote:
DTWorld wrote:
I'd be curious to know what it is for Japan as there's a noticeable Japanese expat community in the Novi area. It's not unusual for me to go to 12 oaks mall and hear several conversations being spoken in Japanese.


Wayne State estimated the Japanese-born population living in Metro Detroit to be around 9,000 in 2013 (the latest numbers I could quickly find). Note these numbers are for permanent residents only; most Japanese residing in Metro Detroit are temporary, even if their visas have been extended for a generation. I assume Troy has a growing Japanese population as well; the Kroger at Coolidge/Maple added a fairly sizable selection of imported Japanese groceries a couple years ago (and the store, which was built as a Farmer Jack in the early 2000s, was already cramped to begin with).



And that's it right there there is so much more to the picture then just crunching a bunch of numbers that a computer spits out. While those number are part of the puzzle to they don't provide the full picture and part of that lies on the WCAA to effectively market new service on go to airlines with this data with the above numbers of 46,000 Indians in this region what are their travel habits put all that data together and come up with the full picture not just the data that a computer spits out. So much has changed in 20 years airlines for the most part have unlimited access to US markets leakage back then was as prevalent back then as it is now because of all the cheap fares that are dumped into the huge metropolitan areas. So you can't just look at numbers to determine what's feasible and what isn't.
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
 
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flymco753
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion 2017

Fri Dec 08, 2017 1:15 pm

klm617 wrote:
compensateme wrote:
DTWorld wrote:
I'd be curious to know what it is for Japan as there's a noticeable Japanese expat community in the Novi area. It's not unusual for me to go to 12 oaks mall and hear several conversations being spoken in Japanese.


Wayne State estimated the Japanese-born population living in Metro Detroit to be around 9,000 in 2013 (the latest numbers I could quickly find). Note these numbers are for permanent residents only; most Japanese residing in Metro Detroit are temporary, even if their visas have been extended for a generation. I assume Troy has a growing Japanese population as well; the Kroger at Coolidge/Maple added a fairly sizable selection of imported Japanese groceries a couple years ago (and the store, which was built as a Farmer Jack in the early 2000s, was already cramped to begin with).



And that's it right there there is so much more to the picture then just crunching a bunch of numbers that a computer spits out. While those number are part of the puzzle to they don't provide the full picture and part of that lies on the WCAA to effectively market new service on go to airlines with this data with the above numbers of 46,000 Indians in this region what are their travel habits put all that data together and come up with the full picture not just the data that a computer spits out. So much has changed in 20 years airlines for the most part have unlimited access to US markets leakage back then was as prevalent back then as it is now because of all the cheap fares that are dumped into the huge metropolitan areas. So you can't just look at numbers to determine what's feasible and what isn't.
They have been though, they’ve marketed so many airlines, some that don’t even make sense. It all comes up to the decision of the airline to do it and 99.9% of Airlines don’t think Detroit is viable so they choose PIT or others instead. Domestic carriers will always continue to add, but the media has burned a hole in Detroit internationally, and it’ll take years for that to iron out.
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dtw2hyd
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion 2017

Fri Dec 08, 2017 1:21 pm

LAXdude1023 wrote:
dtw2hyd wrote:
LAXdude1023 wrote:
...
That said, you dont get to make things up to make an argument that you like. Detroit's Polish community is what it is. I havent said one thing that isnt factually correct on this issue.


Like I said in the first reply to your post, my comment is not specific to Polish immigrant population. In the past, you posted similar data about Indians and similar claims. If that is true why are there so many slow and confused drivers with out of state plates on Michigan roads?


I post data. It’s not false. How you interpret it is your deal.


Problem with isolated data points, they are selective. Not false but selective.

Eg.., DTW-India PDEW numbers do not include passengers using self-connect or other modes of transportation to a different airport. Claiming that the number is ultimate fact is misleading.
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion 2017

Fri Dec 08, 2017 2:10 pm

Unlike some of the other ethnic groups in Metro Detroit, the Japanese community is highly transient and is here for business related purposes. Most are highly educated, have higher incomes and are in for engineering/technical/management/executive positions in the automotive OEM and supplier companies.

Like said, some are here for a finite period and go back to Japan while others may stay here longer-term.

The Japanese population of Metro Detroit is highly concentrated in Novi, Northville, Troy, and Rochester Hills. They even have their own school where the children attend on Saturdays to maintain their Japanese culture and language skills.

Hence the automotive industry business connection obviously supports DTW-NGO that would otherwise not be viable without.
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion 2017

Fri Dec 08, 2017 2:14 pm

Again many of the points being made are about people driving and taking other modes of transportation to other airports are not unique to just DTW. This happens everywhere.

15-20 years ago it was the "Southwest effect" which was rapidly changing the traffic flows and smaller local and regional airports where people were increasing driving to farther away airports to find cheaper fares. The same thing goes on today with international travel. The internet, increased pricing transparency, the ability to make complex connecting iterairies allows people to put together trips that they either wouldn't know about or have been feasible in the pre-internet era.
People will always weigh the time vs price versus convenience. Some people put a higher value on their time than others. Some people will drive 4-6 hours to save $300 on airfare, while other will not. Same thing as people who drive 20 miles out of their way to save $0.30/gallon on gas.
 
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flymco753
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion 2017

Fri Dec 08, 2017 2:16 pm

As 2017 comes to a close, let’s talk about what could happen for next year. I have only 3 points I’d like to bring up.

1. More Spirit expansion is inevitable, with summer routes like BDL and EWR if they get another gate. It’s obvious with their recent PDX add that they’re here to protect and compete and contribute as much as they can to increase their share in the market. Since F9 dropped PHX, that might be something they can announce for next fall/winter. I believe NK will be well over 10% in the market share come 2019. I can see NK increasing MSY to 2x on top of that too.

2. Delta domestic adds, if my math is correct, should include SJC for 2018 as well as natural upgauges from CRJ to mainline, similar to how JAX is being upgraded, next is OKC and CHS I want to think.

3. I also expect with the WS JV that DTW will get at least 1 Canadian route and the most likely one is YYC, maybe YVR but on a seasonal basis. Reason being is, last thing I heard, YQG is getting Swoop, they can in turn use the WS brand on the USA end and Swoop on the YQG aside, there’s no reason the flights can’t work in conjunction. Also I can see AM trying to get deeper into Mexico, GDL would be my first pick but some would argue and say BJX or QRO are more likely.
Whether you're here on business, returning home, or visiting our world class attractions, welcome to Orlando and Central Florida...
 
LAXdude1023
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion 2017

Fri Dec 08, 2017 2:18 pm

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
Unlike some of the other ethnic groups in Metro Detroit, the Japanese community is highly transient and is here for business related purposes. Most are highly educated, have higher incomes and are in for engineering/technical/management/executive positions in the automotive OEM and supplier companies.

Like said, some are here for a finite period and go back to Japan while others may stay here longer-term.

The Japanese population of Metro Detroit is highly concentrated in Novi, Northville, Troy, and Rochester Hills. They even have their own school where the children attend on Saturdays to maintain their Japanese culture and language skills.

Hence the automotive industry business connection obviously supports DTW-NGO that would otherwise not be viable without.


DTW-Japan is a very large travel market. Not because of the local Japanese so much but because of the massive business ties between the two places. Business traffic is also very high yielding compared to VFR. It’s a slam dunk for DL in this case.
It is what it is...
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion 2017

Fri Dec 08, 2017 2:22 pm

The other thing to consider with some of the ethnic travel is that people sometimes want to combine a stop-over in other cities to visit.

I know its anidotal but here are some personal examples:

Family friends like in Northern Oakland County, with many relatives still living in India. When they come to visit they fly Air India to ORD and tend to spend a day or day sight-seeing in Chicago before coming over to Michigan. They stay in the US 2-3 weeks at a time and the family from Michigan drives them to and from Chicago when they come to visit.

Another family with Indian relatives, they typically fly into NYC spend a few days there and then book a round-trip domestic ticket on DTW-NYC to come visit family here.

A guy I work with here takes the Amtrak to Chicago to fly home to India to visit family.

Guys I work with that come over from India 2-3 tmes a year tend to fly AA & QR through either MIA or DFW.

The only ones I know that are flying DL, AF, LH through AMS, CDG, FRA are people from here going to India for business.

Granted this is ofthe people I know that travel to/from India, which isn't a very big sample size.
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion 2017

Fri Dec 08, 2017 2:45 pm

flymco753 wrote:
As 2017 comes to a close, let’s talk about what could happen for next year. I have only 3 points I’d like to bring up.

1. More Spirit expansion is inevitable, with summer routes like BDL and EWR if they get another gate. It’s obvious with their recent PDX add that they’re here to protect and compete and contribute as much as they can to increase their share in the market. Since F9 dropped PHX, that might be something they can announce for next fall/winter. I believe NK will be well over 10% in the market share come 2019. I can see NK increasing MSY to 2x on top of that too.

2. Delta domestic adds, if my math is correct, should include SJC for 2018 as well as natural upgauges from CRJ to mainline, similar to how JAX is being upgraded, next is OKC and CHS I want to think.

3. I also expect with the WS JV that DTW will get at least 1 Canadian route and the most likely one is YYC, maybe YVR but on a seasonal basis. Reason being is, last thing I heard, YQG is getting Swoop, they can in turn use the WS brand on the USA end and Swoop on the YQG aside, there’s no reason the flights can’t work in conjunction. Also I can see AM trying to get deeper into Mexico, GDL would be my first pick but some would argue and say BJX or QRO are more likely.


1. NK is not gate-constrained at DTW. BDL & EWR aren't happening Summer 2018 at this point if it hasn't been announced yet. While they are the next like adds for DTW, NK has a lot of other opportunities outside of DTW.

2. SJC seems like a logical add, but I didn't realize how little flights there are out of SJC that go outside of the Western US. I'm a bit skeptical, since DL could beef-up capacity through MSP, SLC, ATL before adding a DTW flight. There will be mainline upgauging for sure, but its hard to predict exactly where. OKC at 1x day is unlikely to get mainline. CHS has seen mainline periodically during peak spring/summer/fall in the past.

3. The DL-WS JV is far from a done deal and its only in the early proposal stages. Still has to clear regulatory approval and who knows what to anticipate under the current administration. It wouldn't lead to any new flying for 2018. 2019 at earliest. The proposed JV probably means a lot more for MSP, SEA, ATL hubs than DTW based on traffic flows and new/unique traffic flows. AM isn't going deeper in Mexico from DTW; they struggle to make MTY work and have no brand recognition in Metro Detroit.
 
Alphazone
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion 2017

Fri Dec 08, 2017 2:47 pm

DTWorld wrote:
Alphazone wrote:
Actually on the topic of DTW-Poland traffic, klm617 is right in hypothesizing that LH's flight is the primary reason LO does not serve DTW.


What? He's now going to bash Lufthansa?!


?? It should be clear that he was referring to the cannibalizing effect a LO service would have on the LH443.

Nobody is bashing LH. "I know a guy" who always flies ORD-MUC-KRK because he prefers the A346.
 
2Holer4Longhaul
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion 2017

Fri Dec 08, 2017 3:07 pm

LAXdude1023 wrote:
PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
Unlike some of the other ethnic groups in Metro Detroit, the Japanese community is highly transient and is here for business related purposes. Most are highly educated, have higher incomes and are in for engineering/technical/management/executive positions in the automotive OEM and supplier companies.

Like said, some are here for a finite period and go back to Japan while others may stay here longer-term.

The Japanese population of Metro Detroit is highly concentrated in Novi, Northville, Troy, and Rochester Hills. They even have their own school where the children attend on Saturdays to maintain their Japanese culture and language skills.

Hence the automotive industry business connection obviously supports DTW-NGO that would otherwise not be viable without.


DTW-Japan is a very large travel market. Not because of the local Japanese so much but because of the massive business ties between the two places. Business traffic is also very high yielding compared to VFR. It’s a slam dunk for DL in this case.

On top of that, there's also a formidable hub to fill the rest of the plane. It's an absolute slam dunk, and Delta knows that very well, which IMO is why the flagship A350 came to Detroit first.
A junkie for A340s, A380s, and of course Her Majesty the Boeing 747. I wish they were financially viable, but it is not to be.
 
klm617
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion 2017

Fri Dec 08, 2017 3:12 pm

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
The other thing to consider with some of the ethnic travel is that people sometimes want to combine a stop-over in other cities to visit.

I know its anidotal but here are some personal examples:

Family friends like in Northern Oakland County, with many relatives still living in India. When they come to visit they fly Air India to ORD and tend to spend a day or day sight-seeing in Chicago before coming over to Michigan. They stay in the US 2-3 weeks at a time and the family from Michigan drives them to and from Chicago when they come to visit.

Another family with Indian relatives, they typically fly into NYC spend a few days there and then book a round-trip domestic ticket on DTW-NYC to come visit family here.

A guy I work with here takes the Amtrak to Chicago to fly home to India to visit family.

Guys I work with that come over from India 2-3 tmes a year tend to fly AA & QR through either MIA or DFW.

The only ones I know that are flying DL, AF, LH through AMS, CDG, FRA are people from here going to India for business.

Granted this is ofthe people I know that travel to/from India, which isn't a very big sample size.


Yes and they are doing this because of better fares and options at ORD and NYC. If DTW gad comparable service or options the wouldn't be doing what they do but because they are going to Chicago and New York anyone they add the side trips on you have it kind of revered.
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
 
klm617
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion 2017

Fri Dec 08, 2017 3:17 pm

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
Again many of the points being made are about people driving and taking other modes of transportation to other airports are not unique to just DTW. This happens everywhere.

15-20 years ago it was the "Southwest effect" which was rapidly changing the traffic flows and smaller local and regional airports where people were increasing driving to farther away airports to find cheaper fares. The same thing goes on today with international travel. The internet, increased pricing transparency, the ability to make complex connecting iterairies allows people to put together trips that they either wouldn't know about or have been feasible in the pre-internet era.
People will always weigh the time vs price versus convenience. Some people put a higher value on their time than others. Some people will drive 4-6 hours to save $300 on airfare, while other will not. Same thing as people who drive 20 miles out of their way to save $0.30/gallon on gas.


That's not true in most cases 15 to 20 years ago pricing was pretty standard your weren't able to get fares $200 and $300 cheaper by driving to ORD or YYZ. Prices have only gone up causing this effect in the last decade or so with the latest round of consolidation where the Big 3 have more pricing and capacity power than they did before.
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
 
LAXdude1023
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion 2017

Fri Dec 08, 2017 3:38 pm

klm617 wrote:
PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
The other thing to consider with some of the ethnic travel is that people sometimes want to combine a stop-over in other cities to visit.

I know its anidotal but here are some personal examples:

Family friends like in Northern Oakland County, with many relatives still living in India. When they come to visit they fly Air India to ORD and tend to spend a day or day sight-seeing in Chicago before coming over to Michigan. They stay in the US 2-3 weeks at a time and the family from Michigan drives them to and from Chicago when they come to visit.

Another family with Indian relatives, they typically fly into NYC spend a few days there and then book a round-trip domestic ticket on DTW-NYC to come visit family here.

A guy I work with here takes the Amtrak to Chicago to fly home to India to visit family.

Guys I work with that come over from India 2-3 tmes a year tend to fly AA & QR through either MIA or DFW.

The only ones I know that are flying DL, AF, LH through AMS, CDG, FRA are people from here going to India for business.

Granted this is ofthe people I know that travel to/from India, which isn't a very big sample size.


Yes and they are doing this because of better fares and options at ORD and NYC. If DTW gad comparable service or options the wouldn't be doing what they do but because they are going to Chicago and New York anyone they add the side trips on you have it kind of revered.


DTW doesnt have those options because its no where near the size of those markets.

Just curious, how big do you think a market like DTW-WAW is actually? Ive presented what I thought but you havent told us how big you think the market actually is.
It is what it is...
 
LAXdude1023
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion 2017

Fri Dec 08, 2017 3:38 pm

klm617 wrote:
PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
Again many of the points being made are about people driving and taking other modes of transportation to other airports are not unique to just DTW. This happens everywhere.

15-20 years ago it was the "Southwest effect" which was rapidly changing the traffic flows and smaller local and regional airports where people were increasing driving to farther away airports to find cheaper fares. The same thing goes on today with international travel. The internet, increased pricing transparency, the ability to make complex connecting iterairies allows people to put together trips that they either wouldn't know about or have been feasible in the pre-internet era.
People will always weigh the time vs price versus convenience. Some people put a higher value on their time than others. Some people will drive 4-6 hours to save $300 on airfare, while other will not. Same thing as people who drive 20 miles out of their way to save $0.30/gallon on gas.


That's not true in most cases 15 to 20 years ago pricing was pretty standard your weren't able to get fares $200 and $300 cheaper by driving to ORD or YYZ. Prices have only gone up causing this effect in the last decade or so with the latest round of consolidation where the Big 3 have more pricing and capacity power than they did before.


In your post history, you seem to be advocating for re-regulation. Is this the case?
It is what it is...
 
klm617
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion 2017

Fri Dec 08, 2017 4:35 pm

LAXdude1023 wrote:
klm617 wrote:
PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
The other thing to consider with some of the ethnic travel is that people sometimes want to combine a stop-over in other cities to visit.

I know its anidotal but here are some personal examples:

Family friends like in Northern Oakland County, with many relatives still living in India. When they come to visit they fly Air India to ORD and tend to spend a day or day sight-seeing in Chicago before coming over to Michigan. They stay in the US 2-3 weeks at a time and the family from Michigan drives them to and from Chicago when they come to visit.

Another family with Indian relatives, they typically fly into NYC spend a few days there and then book a round-trip domestic ticket on DTW-NYC to come visit family here.

A guy I work with here takes the Amtrak to Chicago to fly home to India to visit family.

Guys I work with that come over from India 2-3 tmes a year tend to fly AA & QR through either MIA or DFW.

The only ones I know that are flying DL, AF, LH through AMS, CDG, FRA are people from here going to India for business.

Granted this is ofthe people I know that travel to/from India, which isn't a very big sample size.


Yes and they are doing this because of better fares and options at ORD and NYC. If DTW gad comparable service or options the wouldn't be doing what they do but because they are going to Chicago and New York anyone they add the side trips on you have it kind of revered.


DTW doesnt have those options because its no where near the size of those markets.

Just curious, how big do you think a market like DTW-WAW is actually? Ive presented what I thought but you havent told us how big you think the market actually is.



I think that DTW-WAW is not a year market but I do think it could work twice weekly from May to say September until the market matures with awareness that there is a carrier now on the route that flies nonstop from Detroit to Poland.
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
 
LAXdude1023
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion 2017

Fri Dec 08, 2017 4:39 pm

klm617 wrote:
LAXdude1023 wrote:
klm617 wrote:

Yes and they are doing this because of better fares and options at ORD and NYC. If DTW gad comparable service or options the wouldn't be doing what they do but because they are going to Chicago and New York anyone they add the side trips on you have it kind of revered.


DTW doesnt have those options because its no where near the size of those markets.

Just curious, how big do you think a market like DTW-WAW is actually? Ive presented what I thought but you havent told us how big you think the market actually is.



I think that DTW-WAW is not a year market but I do think it could work twice weekly from May to say September until the market matures with awareness that there is a carrier now on the route that flies nonstop from Detroit to Poland.


Youve been saying that DTW bleeds a lot of traffic to Poland. How many people do you think it bleeds? What is the numerical size of the market that you believe is actually there?

No airline starts service based on "I think....". There has to be some research to support it. You say you live there and youre entrenched in the community. So how many people do you think are actually bleeding? Ive given you what the data actually is and you told me you dont accept it. Im trying to get you put an estimate on your views.
It is what it is...
 
dtw2hyd
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion 2017

Fri Dec 08, 2017 4:46 pm

LAXdude1023 wrote:
...DTW doesnt have those options because its no where near the size of those markets.


No, because airlines' network hub model in this country is turning into herding of passengers.
 
klm617
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion 2017

Fri Dec 08, 2017 4:47 pm

LAXdude1023 wrote:
klm617 wrote:
PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
Again many of the points being made are about people driving and taking other modes of transportation to other airports are not unique to just DTW. This happens everywhere.

15-20 years ago it was the "Southwest effect" which was rapidly changing the traffic flows and smaller local and regional airports where people were increasing driving to farther away airports to find cheaper fares. The same thing goes on today with international travel. The internet, increased pricing transparency, the ability to make complex connecting iterairies allows people to put together trips that they either wouldn't know about or have been feasible in the pre-internet era.
People will always weigh the time vs price versus convenience. Some people put a higher value on their time than others. Some people will drive 4-6 hours to save $300 on airfare, while other will not. Same thing as people who drive 20 miles out of their way to save $0.30/gallon on gas.


That's not true in most cases 15 to 20 years ago pricing was pretty standard your weren't able to get fares $200 and $300 cheaper by driving to ORD or YYZ. Prices have only gone up causing this effect in the last decade or so with the latest round of consolidation where the Big 3 have more pricing and capacity power than they did before.


In your post history, you seem to be advocating for re-regulation. Is this the case?


Now I don't advocate re-regulation although I think that's where we are now but rather than the government regulating routes and fares the airlines are doing that themselves at the moment. I don't believe that one carrier should be so big in a given market that they effectively eliminate all competition like many have said here as to why airlines do not enter Detroit because they don't want to go up against Delta and that's where I have the problem. I also believe that the airport is running interference for Delta by not aggressively but passively going after new entrants in the Detroit. They blew the QR deal but not be aggresive enouggh in landing those flights in Detroit when QR said repeatably they are adding Detroit. Some would say that QR never intended to add Detroit and that may be true but the airport should have pushed the envelope with them so they would either put up or shut upp but I don't think the airport really wanted QR here in the first place. No fast forward to now EI has stated they are bring on A321s to fly to cities that are within range Detroit surely being on of them let see what the WCAA does with this and if they fail this market again because EI is targeting beyond traffic from DUB and since DTW is not well connected to England without back tracking from AMS and the amount of traffic it could attract from southern Ontario going to England lets see if the airport blows this opportunity too as they have blown the opportunity to attract ME3 carrier as that window is now closed because of all the unrest in that region.
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
 
johns624
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion 2017

Fri Dec 08, 2017 4:53 pm

klm617 wrote:

What hub are the people flying to who are flying on the Delta flight and again I state before FI was flying this there was no MSP-KEF market but over the years the route was made viable so viable that Delta jumped in on it.

My wife and I flew FI CPH-KEF and DL KEF-JFK a couple of years ago--very similar.
 
LAXdude1023
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion 2017

Fri Dec 08, 2017 5:07 pm

dtw2hyd wrote:
LAXdude1023 wrote:
...DTW doesnt have those options because its no where near the size of those markets.


No, because airlines' network hub model in this country is turning into herding of passengers.


No...its because Detroit is 1/3 the size of a market like Chicago. You cannot tell me with a straight face that somehow Detroit should have the same number of options.
It is what it is...
 
LAXdude1023
Posts: 4907
Joined: Thu Sep 07, 2006 3:16 pm

Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion 2017

Fri Dec 08, 2017 5:13 pm

klm617 wrote:
LAXdude1023 wrote:
klm617 wrote:

That's not true in most cases 15 to 20 years ago pricing was pretty standard your weren't able to get fares $200 and $300 cheaper by driving to ORD or YYZ. Prices have only gone up causing this effect in the last decade or so with the latest round of consolidation where the Big 3 have more pricing and capacity power than they did before.


In your post history, you seem to be advocating for re-regulation. Is this the case?


Now I don't advocate re-regulation although I think that's where we are now but rather than the government regulating routes and fares the airlines are doing that themselves at the moment. I don't believe that one carrier should be so big in a given market that they effectively eliminate all competition like many have said here as to why airlines do not enter Detroit because they don't want to go up against Delta and that's where I have the problem. I also believe that the airport is running interference for Delta by not aggressively but passively going after new entrants in the Detroit. They blew the QR deal but not be aggresive enouggh in landing those flights in Detroit when QR said repeatably they are adding Detroit. Some would say that QR never intended to add Detroit and that may be true but the airport should have pushed the envelope with them so they would either put up or shut upp but I don't think the airport really wanted QR here in the first place. No fast forward to now EI has stated they are bring on A321s to fly to cities that are within range Detroit surely being on of them let see what the WCAA does with this and if they fail this market again because EI is targeting beyond traffic from DUB and since DTW is not well connected to England without back tracking from AMS and the amount of traffic it could attract from southern Ontario going to England lets see if the airport blows this opportunity too as they have blown the opportunity to attract ME3 carrier as that window is now closed because of all the unrest in that region.


I cannot tell if youre severely overestimating the importance of the Detroit market, a conspiracy theorist, or you have some sort of grudge against the WCAA. The WCAA wants every carrier it can get, but DTW wont support most of them. Unless its an airport like JFK, LAX, SFO, ORD, or IAD, airlines will not blindly enter a market. Even MIA has been on its hands and knees for years begging for a flight to Asia and theyve come up empty handed thus far. Its not because the airport authority in Miami is incompetent or playing payola with AA, its because the market cant support it yet.

Also, the hub and spoke model is a double edged sword. Detroit would not have near the amount of service it has now without Delta. Yes they make the fares higher when they have a market that is very loyal to them, but they are the ones providing the service so they get to decide what to charge.
It is what it is...
 
dtw2hyd
Posts: 5016
Joined: Wed Jan 09, 2013 12:11 pm

Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion 2017

Fri Dec 08, 2017 5:22 pm

LAXdude1023 wrote:
dtw2hyd wrote:
LAXdude1023 wrote:
...DTW doesnt have those options because its no where near the size of those markets.


No, because airlines' network hub model in this country is turning into herding of passengers.


No...its because Detroit is 1/3 the size of a market like Chicago. You cannot tell me with a straight face that somehow Detroit should have the same number of options.


No one is asking for the same number of options. Every airport should get their fair share.

Eg, You cannot force most Detroit-India passengers through Chicago, New York or Boston and claim those cities have better "numbers".

Same with entire southern seaboard, everyone has to go through one huge hub. This will work until LH-LCCs start nibbling away feeder traffic.
 
LAXdude1023
Posts: 4907
Joined: Thu Sep 07, 2006 3:16 pm

Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion 2017

Fri Dec 08, 2017 5:32 pm

dtw2hyd wrote:
LAXdude1023 wrote:
dtw2hyd wrote:

No, because airlines' network hub model in this country is turning into herding of passengers.


No...its because Detroit is 1/3 the size of a market like Chicago. You cannot tell me with a straight face that somehow Detroit should have the same number of options.


No one is asking for the same number of options. Every airport should get their fair share.

Eg, You cannot force most Detroit-India passengers through Chicago, New York or Boston and claim those cities have better "numbers".

Same with entire southern seaboard, everyone has to go through one huge hub. This will work until LH-LCCs start nibbling away feeder traffic.


Nobody is forcing those people through those airports. You have LH, AF, DL, UA, AC, and DL/VS. Its not as if DTW is CLE or IND.
It is what it is...
 
ASFlyer
Posts: 1504
Joined: Sat May 28, 2005 1:25 pm

Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion 2017

Fri Dec 08, 2017 5:39 pm

klm617 wrote:
What hub are the people flying to who are flying on the Delta flight and again I state before FI was flying this there was no MSP-KEF market but over the years the route was made viable so viable that Delta jumped in on it.


DL jumped on this route because FI announced it. Simple as that. They NEVER would have flown KEF-MSP otherwise. You're exhausting.

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