Sun Sep 17, 2017 2:24 pm
This conversation is getting to a place that I've been advocating for a while now: the link between DTW and the emergence of a different economic landscape. Without Amazon, Detroit has been growing impressively, but mostly within the same sectors as its always led: manufacturing, finance, medical services. That growth has been substantial, and has led to the region being healthier than it has in decades. In parallel, the city's emergence from bankruptcy has created an investment environment that has tapped the post-recession energy of a modest influx of new residents to 2 or 3 core areas in the city. To some extent (more than other cities, for sure), that energy reflects a view of urbanism that in the American context is quite progressive, embracing de-industrialization, the sublimation of abandoned neighborhoods into unserviced areas, anti-gentrification narratives, and compared to cities like Chicago, much more collaboration across race and class in incubating small business and defining community.
All of that, to date, will account for modest growth in passenger numbers and incremental new air service (Delta's MUC route is the perfect example of this, I think). Eventually, the dull people of metro Detroit who still think it's 1991—or earlier—will get with the program, vote for transit, contribute to regional collaboration, and maybe even book a flight somewhere other than Florida. Then, DTW's air service would be pretty steady with great routes and passenger numbers a bit higher than they are now.
BUT then HQ2 comes along. Whether Detroit wins this or not, the die is cast. The possibility alone is forcing residents and leaders around SE Michigan not just to admit, but to recognize the impact of, certain symptoms of a bigger disease: 1. oh dang, we need transit; 2. we need to cooperate; 3. detroit isn't evil; 4. we have a race problem; 5. the future of autos is not in mill jobs; 6. we're behind; 7. sprawl is liability, not growth; 8. we need to provide opportunity without forcing people away. When I say the die is cast, I mean that the pursuit of HQ2 is a turning point in how Detroit as a region thinks about its current state and potential future. That might be enough to change the game in a way that would eventually be reflected in DTW air service—like the above scenario, perhaps even more passengers as business continues to thrive; perhaps more incremental new routes to serve emerging markets—a return for BA, for example, but also Milan, San Jose, Guangzhou, Warsaw, or India. Maybe. Maybe not.
If Detroit wins HQ2, then good night. klm and all the other man-children fan boys who stake their identity to an airport like a child in Superman pajamas will get their wish. It will be so intense they might explode, or they might experience an ecstasy unknown to all others as they sublimate into a singularity of being and vaporize into a disparate chaos of atoms like the exhaust from a jet engine on a big obese 380 taking off from DTW, full speed to Paris, or Tokyo, or some other once and future new world capital waiting in the wings. Farewell klm! Farewell!!
