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Re: Aboulafia: Boom period for Boeing is over

Fri Feb 17, 2017 6:42 am

QuarkFly wrote:
zeke wrote:
Boeing still think the 767 is money maker, why didn't they improve it significantly ? It is the MOM king (with new engines and 50% composites)
Boeing still think the 737 is a money maker, being squeezed at the bottom (below 150 seats) by Canada, Brazil, Japan, China, Russia (so is airbus ), at the top end the A321neo.
Boeing is being squeezed by the A330neo, not even as good as the original A350 which Boeing (Randy) said was junk. For many years in a row the ole common A330 outsold the 787 ......
Boeing is being squeezed by the A350, a program being laughed at by Boeing when announced as they said they need 7 years to develop it. End result it cut into their other cash cow the 777.

There is a culture of elitism in Boeing (and Boeing fanboys on this site) that think only good technology can only be developed in the US. One thing is developing technology, the other is implementing it which they scored a big F on the 787. The industry is expecting the same with the 77X.

The industry expects-knows something about the 77X development and rollout that we don't.? Yes 787 development was a disaster. But 789 and MAX have been smooth...787-10 rolls out tomorrow...What is the problem going to be with 77X?

A 767 sized MoM aircraft would be great...but sadly the market is moving to 6-hour or more flights on A321NEO's...TATL, inter-asia, etc. Last time I flew ICN to BKK -- was on 739, instead of the usual 777 or A330, Sucks! I really hope B can make a case for a comfortable MoM, I fear the NEO technology is making that market a commodity narrow-body area and wide-bodies will be minimum 300 passenger.

Airbus clearly has the advantage in the NB area with the A32x NEO...but B should stop looking for kluge answers like 737-10, etc. Nothing wrong with just riding the second place 738MAX for the next decade if it makes money and save bullets for future opportunities, Despite all...MAX has a large backlog.

Culture of elitism?? Maybe in the past -- Now everybody knows this A vs. B stuff is a side show -- the customers want a duopoly (at least), and would never allow A or B to dominate and get pricing power.

I would bet that any MoM aircraft will offer a lower passenger comfort than the current 737/A320. If you want to be efficient you must make it as small as possible, which means squeeze the seats as much as possible. For a single aisle the 737 fuselage is wide enough (wider means more drag) for a twin aisle I would expect a 2-4-2 just a bit wider than the 767 (2-3") with sculptured side walls.
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Re: Aboulafia: Boom period for Boeing is over

Fri Feb 17, 2017 3:25 pm

enzo011 wrote:
KarelXWB wrote:
And then there is this:

Analyst puts Sell on Boeing stock in unusally bearish report

In an extraordinarily bearish research note, boutique Buckingham Research Group (BRG) downgraded Boeing stock to Underperform (Sell) from Neutral (Hold) today.
BRG, which agrees with other aerospace analysts that Boeing stock is priced on free cash flow, sees FCF falling beginning next year. Buckingham predicts 737 production rates—which Boeing wants to boost to 57/mo to support FCF—will be short-lived.

Buckingham sees 777 Classic delivery rates dropping from Boeing’s target of 3.5/mo to “bottom out” at 2/mo.

Weak orders for the 787 means Boeing won’t increase production rates for the 787 from 12/mo to 14/mo. BRG predicts that in 2019 Boeing will announce a rate reduction from the current to 7/mo on one production line, and this line will be only in Charleston (SC).

Boeing could move the entire 787 production out of Washington? So much for those tax breaks to help the company launch the 777X.

Well, Boeing SC rejected unionization pretty soundly this week, too, so several reasons to move it there. Honestly, it would go there anyway, regardless of Union vote, there is space and some barrel manufacturing.
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Re: Aboulafia: Boom period for Boeing is over

Fri Feb 17, 2017 6:45 pm

RA is right more than he is wrong. Calls where he was right have been poor the 380, too many regional jets, collapse of the air taxi concept. Having said that no kidding the boom is over. He like many others don't yet realize that low oil is here to stay so wb retirements will be put off.

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