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N14AZ
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Re: Airbus A380 MidLife Upgrade, 2021?

Fri Feb 17, 2017 8:06 am

Planesmart wrote:
How generous was Airbus when the project was delayed versus them now following Boeing's firm stance with delivery deferrals and model hopping penalties? Was the SQ agreement to take their remaining five A380's a result of this approach, and the subsequent 777X family order payback by SQ?

I am not sure if I get that point. SQ's remaining A380s will come from their third separate order made in 2012 (first order was in 2000 for 10 units, second order was in 2006 for additional 9 airframes)

RL777 wrote:
The A380s fate will be determined over the next 5-7 years, If the 777X can deliver on its performance specs and the A350-1000 delivers on its then it will out the A380 in a very difficult spot to garner new orders.

I agree (777X plus A350-1000) but in addition the A380's fate will depend on what Airbus will offer with their A350-2000 (or whatever they will call it). That's it would have been interesting to know what Airbus exactly offered during the recent SQ-RFP (which they lost) or what outlook they gave (of course they were not in a position to offer a A350-2000 but similar to Boeing I guess they presented how the A350-1000 can be stretched.

Whalejet wrote:
There is one airline on earth that would like a stretched A380-EK..

No, even EK said they want a NEO, but not a larger A380. I think that's Airbus' dilemma. To keep it competitive they must stretch it, but it seems that such a large jet is not what they airlines want...

Varsity1 wrote:
There isn't a single A380 based in the western hemisphere of the world.

???
 
WIederling
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Re: Airbus A380 MidLife Upgrade, 2021?

Fri Feb 17, 2017 8:44 am

N14AZ wrote:
Varsity1 wrote:
There isn't a single A380 based in the western hemisphere of the world.

???


Obviously there is no western hemisphere. you can go west till doomsday :-)

Hmm:
"a spherical calotte centered around some part of the American continent?"

Going westward the last base is the UK
then you have that continent that could not be bothered to buy them
but everybody flies there :-)
going further westward Qantas Down Under should be the next base.
Taking the extremis : 16W to 158 E that is ~190° of the globe.
Thinking of all that "peaceful" water it is also the least populated part of the globe. :-)
Murphy is an optimist
 
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keesje
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Re: Airbus A380 MidLife Upgrade, 2021?

Fri Feb 17, 2017 9:04 am

mffoda wrote:
As our friend "lightsaber" has twice so patiently pointed out, there is NO new engine available for A380neo in the timeframe that has been stated upthread. There is no RR Advance engine in development for this aircraft. Simple fact...

As lightsaber and others have rightly stated, the development cycle for a new engine is approximately 6-8 years. There is no donor engine in the same thrust class available as in the case of the Trent 1000 for the A330neo.
..
I really don't see how anyone could imagine a A380neo in time to make a difference...


What are you talking about?

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"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
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speedbored
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Re: Airbus A380 MidLife Upgrade, 2021?

Fri Feb 17, 2017 9:09 am

Varsity1 wrote:
There isn't a single A380 based in the western hemisphere of the world.

If that were true, it ought not to be surprise to anyone, given that only ~18% of humanity resides in the Western Hemisphere.

But, as Unflug has already pointed out, there are actually 12 A380s currently based in the Western Hemisphere.
 
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N14AZ
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Re: Airbus A380 MidLife Upgrade, 2021?

Fri Feb 17, 2017 9:18 am

United Airline wrote:
I believe when it comes to A380 replacement the current A380 operators will order the new A380NEO and thus Airbus will build it.

That's how it worked for the good old 747:

From

to

to

to


But at that time there was no alternative capacity-wise. We shall see if it will be the same when the replacement-phase for the first A380s starts.

One issue is floor space, of course. There is still a significant difference between an A380 and an B777X. CEO Tim Clark mentioned the importance of the bar for their product. I think he said something like "whatever they do, the bar has to stay". Will this be enough to get new orders in the future? Of course you can install a bar in a 777x or an A350-1000 as well. We shall see...
 
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TheLion
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Re: Airbus A380 MidLife Upgrade, 2021?

Fri Feb 17, 2017 9:24 am

keesje wrote:
The time for Airbus to present an A380 continuation plan seems to come closer.

The A380 first flew in 2005 and it would take several years to implement enhancements. Meanwhile the backlog has been shrinking. No more then 4-5 years / 100 aircraft left. An A380NEO initiative by EK was postponed last year.

Image
orders, deliveries

By 2021 significantly better engines should be available form RR and/or GE. A stretch of 6 rows and 11 abreast maindeck could add 100 seats plus required lavatories and galleyspace.

Weight reduction could be realized based on 15 years of flight data and MRO history and aerodynamics enhancement could be implemented. Reducing CASM would probably around 15-20% for 600-650 seat 4 class cabins.

Traffic is increasingly concentrated around 80 20Million+ pass /yr hubs. Mainly EMEA-Asia (EK does 40 destinations) but also flights to/from NorthAmerica are significant:

Image
A380 Flights from North America.

Airtraffic keeps growing at ~4-5% per year, oil prices will rise and congestions around airports grows. This will lead to demand for larger aircraft as visible from 777X and 787-10 launches and MoM / A350-2000/ 737-10 / A322 / 777-10 ideas.

Customers could be replacement/ additions for the current 15 opertors or new hub oriented airlines
like e,g, Turkish, Delta, China Airlines, Garuda, IranAir or Hawaiian ;)

Image


Absolutely LOVE the colour scheme, makes a change from plain old white. How did you do this?
 
TheSonntag
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Re: Airbus A380 MidLife Upgrade, 2021?

Fri Feb 17, 2017 9:32 am

Varsity1 wrote:
It's not just the US.
There isn't a single A380 based in the western hemisphere of the world.


Last time I looked out of the window I considered Germany to be a western country.
 
Noshow
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Re: Airbus A380 MidLife Upgrade, 2021?

Fri Feb 17, 2017 9:47 am

I think he meant to say not one A380 is based in one of the Americas.
 
Momo1435
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Re: Airbus A380 MidLife Upgrade, 2021?

Fri Feb 17, 2017 10:05 am

Heathrow is located west of Greenwich, so technically BAs A380s are based in the western hemisphere.


As far as a A380neo, everything is possible if enough airlines are interested in a neo, and also in a time frame which doesn't create a too large production gap. I don't think it will happen as the current market is simply not asking for it. But as it's Airbus flagship project I could perfectly see them taking the losses to just relaunch it mid next decade, with a stretch and new engines and possibly with completely new customers next to the current operators. But this won't be decided anytime soon.
 
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keesje
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Re: Airbus A380 MidLife Upgrade, 2021?

Fri Feb 17, 2017 10:07 am

Noshow wrote:
I think he meant to say not one A380 is based in one of the Americas.


These are the A380 routes from North America in 2016. Mostly in codeshare with US based airlines.

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"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
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JetBuddy
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Re: Airbus A380 MidLife Upgrade, 2021?

Fri Feb 17, 2017 11:20 am

For the sake of argument, let's say Keesje is right. Airbus still believes there's a market for ultra large widebodies. What options for upgrades do they have? There are ways to make a relatively inexpensive A380neo, and there are ways to create a very expensive new version. The inexpensive variant shouldn't take more R&D costs than the A330neo program.

Cheap option:
- Trent XWB engines
- No stretch
- Improved wing tips / winglets
- Aerodynamical cleanup / improvements
- Space-Flex type of cabin reconfiguration

Expensive option:
(not plausible the next 10 years imho.)

- New next-gen engines
- Stretch to a -900 size variant
- Introduce cargo variant based on the -800 (Yes, this takes major redesign of many parts, strengthening lower deck, replacing upper deck, added cargo doors and an internal cargo lift. Unlikely.)
- New wing tips / winglets (maybe a whole new wing design?)
- Aerodynamic cleanup
- Space-flex cabin improvements

If Airbus wants to save the program, they need to do something. And the cheap option seems plausible. It's relatively low cost, and could be the bridge needed to keep interest in the aircraft up for the next 10 years until a major upgrade could take place with new engine tech. The question is if a cheap "neofication" is enough.

Another way to keep interest in the aircraft up is to introduce a Pax to Freighter conversion program. This will increase the turnover rate and the 2nd hand market will larger. But this takes a lot of work and R&D. Airbus stopped the development of the cargo variant, so it might be too much work or too costly to turn it into a freighter since both decks might need strengthening or even replacing.

Probably will get a lot of hate for this post, but that's okay. Many of you have good insight into aeronautical design, so what are your thoughts on possible upgrade paths? I know cargo variants are unlikely, but I don't think it's impossible.
 
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N14AZ
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Re: Airbus A380 MidLife Upgrade, 2021?

Fri Feb 17, 2017 11:52 am

JetBuddy wrote:
Cheap option:
- Trent XWB engines
- No stretch
- Improved wing tips / winglets
- Aerodynamical cleanup / improvements
- Space-Flex type of cabin reconfiguration

Except for the first bullet point, that's nearly what Airbus called "low hanging fruits" for improving the A380.

My feeling is this kind of "neofication" as you called it, will not be enough... I think it takes more "love" to succeed... Yes, it's like with Valentine's Day earlier this week. You can buy some cheap flowers from the gas station on your way home or you can prepare for a nice evening with candle-light-dinner, a nice present etc etc - guess what will be more helpful to neo-fy an old relationship... :-)

JetBuddy wrote:
Expensive option:
(not plausible the next 10 years imho.)

[...]
- Stretch to a -900 size variant

Airbus also mentioned the concept of a smaller stretch, here discussed as A380-850...

JetBuddy wrote:
Probably will get a lot of hate for this post, but that's okay.

??? Why should you...
 
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seahawk
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Re: Airbus A380 MidLife Upgrade, 2021?

Fri Feb 17, 2017 11:54 am

The cheap option is the NEO option and that was rejected already.

And the reason is quite simple, the fuel burn delta between the Trent XWB and the Trent 900 is limited (5-6%), while the Trent XWB has a wider fan and is about 1t heavier. Which will further eat into the fuel burn advantage.

See page 60 for CO2 emission comparison between Trent engines
http://www.fzt.haw-hamburg.de/pers/Scho ... Design.pdf
 
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VirginFlyer
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Re: Airbus A380 MidLife Upgrade, 2021?

Fri Feb 17, 2017 12:20 pm

N14AZ wrote:
But at that time there was no alternative capacity-wise. We shall see if it will be the same when the replacement-phase for the first A380s starts.

Also nothing really matched the 747 for range, and when we look back on the past 50 years, that's really where the aircraft became significant, being able to carry a reasonable payload over a greater distance than any other aircraft. With the advent of the A340, and then the 777, followed by the A330, 787 and A350, many of the long range routes which were previously the sole domain of the 747 can be flown without carrying around the structure of a bigger aircraft than what is needed to carry the number of passengers on a particular route. I actually think Airbus fundamentally misread the key attraction of the 747, and assumed that because big was good, bigger would be better. They doubled down on that by optimising the design around the A380-900.

All that said, I think it is inevitable that there will be a growing need for large aircraft, it's just the need for an aircraft the size of the A380, for most operators, isn't there other than on a handful of routes for the foreseeable future. I wonder if Airbus could mothball the production when the orders are filled (realistically at 20 deliveries in 2017, then 12 a year from then on, its all done by end-2021 unless new orders materialise, or existing ones which seem unlikely become more likely again), allow the market and engine technology to catch up, then have an A380neo ready for EIS towards the end of the 2020s. Question is, would it still stand up against the carbon winged twins available then, or would it need to be stretched to realise its true potential (which means the market would need even longer to catch up to the capacity being offered).

V/F
"So powerful is the light of unity that it can illuminate the whole earth." - Bahá'u'lláh
 
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AirPacific747
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Re: Airbus A380 MidLife Upgrade, 2021?

Fri Feb 17, 2017 12:20 pm

How do we know that the 380 has been loss making for Airbus? Also even if it was directly loss making, think about all the know-how Airbus gained from the project which they will benefit from for decades to come, which will help them succeed on other projects.
 
WIederling
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Re: Airbus A380 MidLife Upgrade, 2021?

Fri Feb 17, 2017 12:50 pm

AirPacific747 wrote:
How do we know that the 380 has been loss making for Airbus? Also even if it was directly loss making, think about all the know-how Airbus gained from the project which they will benefit from for decades to come, which will help them succeed on other projects.


By Airbus own admission the A380 has been skipping the per frame break even delimiter in recent history.
( back and forth, .... moved by learning curve advances, rate reductions and process improvements.)

Any other gains or losses are difficult to quantify.
Murphy is an optimist
 
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Revelation
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Re: Airbus A380 MidLife Upgrade, 2021?

Fri Feb 17, 2017 1:06 pm

keesje wrote:
mffoda wrote:
As our friend "lightsaber" has twice so patiently pointed out, there is NO new engine available for A380neo in the timeframe that has been stated upthread. There is no RR Advance engine in development for this aircraft. Simple fact...

As lightsaber and others have rightly stated, the development cycle for a new engine is approximately 6-8 years. There is no donor engine in the same thrust class available as in the case of the Trent 1000 for the A330neo.
..
I really don't see how anyone could imagine a A380neo in time to make a difference...


What are you talking about?


The same thing Tom Williams is talking about when he said "It doesn't make sense", ref: viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1355693#p19362421

I have to give you credit for continuing to flog the dead horse.
Inspiration, move me brightly! Light the song with sense and color.
Hold away despair, more than this I will not ask.
Faced with mysteries dark and vast, statements just seem vain at last.
Some rise, some fall, some climb, to get to Terrapin!
 
Bricktop
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Re: Airbus A380 MidLife Upgrade, 2021?

Fri Feb 17, 2017 1:10 pm

Airlines and and their financiers probably want to see an aftermarket for these planes before anyone gets pumped up about going ahead with v2.0. Covering all that capex over the 12 years that first tier airlines keep them is a stretch. ;-)
 
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keesje
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Re: Airbus A380 MidLife Upgrade, 2021?

Fri Feb 17, 2017 1:22 pm

Revelation wrote:
keesje wrote:
mffoda wrote:
As our friend "lightsaber" has twice so patiently pointed out, there is NO new engine available for A380neo in the timeframe that has been stated upthread. There is no RR Advance engine in development for this aircraft. Simple fact...

As lightsaber and others have rightly stated, the development cycle for a new engine is approximately 6-8 years. There is no donor engine in the same thrust class available as in the case of the Trent 1000 for the A330neo.
..
I really don't see how anyone could imagine a A380neo in time to make a difference...


What are you talking about?


The same thing Tom Williams is talking about when he said "It doesn't make sense", ref: viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1355693#p19362421

I have to give you credit for continuing to flog the dead horse.


If there's a year order drought, until it isn't. We seen it for 10 years now.. Listen to what Tom told his boss to present a few weeks ago.
https://youtu.be/9DcePvsD49w?t=20m6s
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
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speedbored
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Re: Airbus A380 MidLife Upgrade, 2021?

Fri Feb 17, 2017 1:35 pm

Revelation wrote:
The same thing Tom Williams is talking about when he said "It doesn't make sense", ref: viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1355693#p19362421

But saying that a common engine for the A330neo and A380neo does not make sense (which is what he actually said if you don't take his quote out of context) is not at all the same thing as saying that a new engine for the A380 does not make sense.
 
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Polot
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Re: Airbus A380 MidLife Upgrade, 2021?

Fri Feb 17, 2017 1:38 pm

speedbored wrote:
Revelation wrote:
The same thing Tom Williams is talking about when he said "It doesn't make sense", ref: viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1355693#p19362421

But saying that a common engine for the A330neo and A380neo does not make sense (which is what he actually said if you don't take his quote out of context) is not at all the same thing as saying that a new engine for the A380 does not make sense.

A new engine for the A380 does make sense. Except to the people who have to actually pay for the development of this super efficient engine tailored just for the A380.
 
kurtverbose
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Re: Airbus A380 MidLife Upgrade, 2021?

Fri Feb 17, 2017 1:58 pm

I can only see a new engine if it's also on another frame. The next widebody due a neo is the 787 and I can't see that happening before 2025, which is when a widebody geared turbofan should mature as a technology.
 
MaksFly
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Re: Airbus A380 MidLife Upgrade, 2021?

Fri Feb 17, 2017 2:05 pm

Amazing to see this discussion here and to look at how "USA" centric a lot of this forum is.

For all of this talk about how US carriers may never order the A380... who cares... that is not where the global growth is, or will be coming from.

You just have to look at demographics and global trends.

Take a look.
http://www.visualcapitalist.com/majorit ... es-circle/

The need for a VLA like the A380 will come, but what we are bickering about is 20 years one way or another in a theme that will play out over hundreds of years.

All you have to do is look there now, look at the widebodies full to the brim flying short hops.

As more and more people are able to afford air travel, you will be able to fill them up.

The other issue with the A380 and when it launched.... even though Airbus put it out as a CASM monster, in the mid 2000's it was all about luxury and throwing money out the window... that is when you have the showers and bars. What was intended as a capacity play turned into a luxury play... (think of all those SUV that are merely used to go pick up groceries).

As the global economy grows AND more and more people in Asia grow into the middle class, there will be a huge need for VLA.
 
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keesje
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Re: Airbus A380 MidLife Upgrade, 2021?

Fri Feb 17, 2017 3:17 pm

Stitch wrote:
Max Q wrote:
Once again, Boeing gets it right, they knew the sun was setting on four engine VLA's.

They covered themselves by making a far smaller investment in developing the 747-8, it may not have sold well as a passenger aircraft but it's
done reasonably well as a freighter that occupies a completely unique niche, I think that market will come back but if it doesn't no big deal, they've made
billions on the 747 program since 1969, unlike AB who are losing billions on the A380.


Well the 747-8 wiped out a fair few billions of that, but you pays your money and you takes your chances and this time, it didn't work for them.


Comparing A380 to the 747 lifecycle, the A380 is where the 747 was in 1980. 6 Yrs before the 747-400 took off.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
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Polot
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Re: Airbus A380 MidLife Upgrade, 2021?

Fri Feb 17, 2017 3:26 pm

keesje wrote:
Stitch wrote:
Max Q wrote:
Once again, Boeing gets it right, they knew the sun was setting on four engine VLA's.

They covered themselves by making a far smaller investment in developing the 747-8, it may not have sold well as a passenger aircraft but it's
done reasonably well as a freighter that occupies a completely unique niche, I think that market will come back but if it doesn't no big deal, they've made
billions on the 747 program since 1969, unlike AB who are losing billions on the A380.


Well the 747-8 wiped out a fair few billions of that, but you pays your money and you takes your chances and this time, it didn't work for them.


Comparing A380 to the 747 lifecycle, the A380 is where the 747 was in 1980. 6 Yrs before the 747-400 took off.

Except in 1980 the 747 wasn't struggling to gain any orders for years and facing a production gap of several years (even at a severely reduced production rate). 1978 and 1979 were actually the plane's two best years in terms of orders since the 747's EIS, and 1980 had the plane's highest deliveries since 1970. 1980 is actually when Boeing launched the -300.

Assuming that a new engine will suddenly make the A380 take off seems rather optimistic. This isn't the 1980s. If it was that easy airlines would have told Airbus that and we wouldn't be discussing a possible A380neo, we would be discussing an actual A380neo that Airbus launched.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Airbus A380 MidLife Upgrade, 2021?

Fri Feb 17, 2017 3:31 pm

Polot wrote:
A new engine for the A380 does make sense. Except to the people who have to actually pay for the development of this super efficient engine tailored just for the A380.

That is the crux of it. To sell a new engine requires a stretch and other airframe improvements.

Airbus just needs to sell 150+ examples and somehow keep the production line open. I'm aware of military production lines resuming, but (excluding strikes) civilian. The modern supply chain is a beast that must be fed or killed. The A380 hasn't sold enough for a slow trickle of profitable sales (think Falcon 900 where so many sales of it and related models allow for a ridiculously low production rate at a profit as the supply chain is supported by spares and related models).

To others:
I personally cheered on the A380 since about 2000 when a project I was working was cancelled to make way for A380 development. I thought it was a great idea. However, the 77W was improved too much to kill off and the 779 will have lower CASM. A larger plane runs the risk of not being full. So it must have a much lower CASM/CASK to support 'abuse' by either lower fares or empty seats, for not every run every day will fill a plan to 85%+ capacity.

With global hub expansion, I see no dire need for the A380. The number of airports that *need* the type will be few and far between. Heck, if Tokyo and London would fix their capacity constraints, there wouldn't be a need to discuss the type.

The reality is it takes 600+ examples of a plane to gain the modern economy of scale needed to support a type. While the A380 will keep flying, lack of quantity raises costs. Cest la vie. The A350 and 777 will fill the role adequately until BWBs grace the sky.

Lightsaber
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keesje
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Re: Airbus A380 MidLife Upgrade, 2021?

Fri Feb 17, 2017 4:00 pm

Polot wrote:
keesje wrote:
Stitch wrote:

Well the 747-8 wiped out a fair few billions of that, but you pays your money and you takes your chances and this time, it didn't work for them.


Comparing A380 to the 747 lifecycle, the A380 is where the 747 was in 1980. 6 Yrs before the 747-400 took off.

Except in 1980 the 747 wasn't struggling to gain any orders for years and facing a production gap of several years (even at a severely reduced production rate). 1978 and 1979 were actually the plane's two best years in terms of orders since the 747's EIS, and 1980 had the plane's highest deliveries since 1970. 1980 is actually when Boeing launched the -300.

Assuming that a new engine will suddenly make the A380 take off seems rather optimistic. This isn't the 1980s. If it was that easy airlines would have told Airbus that and we wouldn't be discussing a possible A380neo, we would be discussing an actual A380neo that Airbus launched.


Lets stay factual, Google is our friend. The early eighties were low orders & negative book to bill rates for 747. Orders jumped at 747-400 introduction. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_747#Orders_and_deliveries

On New engines. A A380NEO engine is in the right space, unlike e.g. a MoM or 777X engine. Most widebodies are in this segment 75-85k lbs segment, now and in the foreseeable future. Lifting on existing engines, R&D paying off on many lines.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
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Polot
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Re: Airbus A380 MidLife Upgrade, 2021?

Fri Feb 17, 2017 4:08 pm

keesje wrote:
Polot wrote:
keesje wrote:

Comparing A380 to the 747 lifecycle, the A380 is where the 747 was in 1980. 6 Yrs before the 747-400 took off.

Except in 1980 the 747 wasn't struggling to gain any orders for years and facing a production gap of several years (even at a severely reduced production rate). 1978 and 1979 were actually the plane's two best years in terms of orders since the 747's EIS, and 1980 had the plane's highest deliveries since 1970. 1980 is actually when Boeing launched the -300.

Assuming that a new engine will suddenly make the A380 take off seems rather optimistic. This isn't the 1980s. If it was that easy airlines would have told Airbus that and we wouldn't be discussing a possible A380neo, we would be discussing an actual A380neo that Airbus launched.


Lets stay factual, Google is our friend. The early eighties were low orders & negative book to bill rates for 747. Orders jumped at 747-400
introduction. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_747#Orders_and_deliveries

I am staying factual. You are the one who said 1980. Yes, the early 80s were rough on the 747 but that was following a strong late 70s. The last time the A380 had more than 2 net orders was in 2014, thanks to Amedeo. You know the leasing company who in 3 years has yet to place one and whose entire order is conditional on that requirement. Before that it was the year before thanks to EK's generous order for 50. We are already starting off this banner year with -2 orders, and we still have customers who have all but admitted they have no interest in taking the plane on the books.

I can actually make another analogy about the A380/747 lifecycles. The A380 is where the 747 was in 2002, about 6 years before the 748 took off. Somehow I don't think you would like that comparison as much as your 742->744 one though...

On New engines. A A380NEO engine is in the right space, unlike e.g. a MoM or 777X engine. Most widebodies are in this segment 75-85k lbs segment, now and in the foreseeable future. Lifting on existing engines, R&D paying off on many lines.

Again you are not understanding that the current engines don't provide enough improvement over the A380's engines to be worth the development/certification costs, and RR/GE would like to see some ROI on their Trent 1000 TEN/Trent 7000/GEnX/GE9X. They are not going to develop a brand new engine that will immediately make them obsolete ~6 years after their introduction.
 
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RL777
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Re: Airbus A380 MidLife Upgrade, 2021?

Fri Feb 17, 2017 4:31 pm

I think John Leahy is right when he says this aircraft will be important in the future when some of the biggest hubs reach their saturation point, the problem for Airbus is whether or not they can sustain the program until such a time where the program draws enough interest to possibly offer an A380NEO.
 
WIederling
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Re: Airbus A380 MidLife Upgrade, 2021?

Fri Feb 17, 2017 5:08 pm

"With global hub expansion, I see no dire need for the A380. The number of airports that *need* the type will be few and far between."

Compare traffic projections around 2000 and then overlay that with the observed evolution inclusive of two larger "extinction events" ( 911 and the GFC ) and some smaller holdups ( like laying waste to the middle east, ... beggaring the middle class in the US)

Todays traffic is stunted by about half of those projections.
The question to put is : are VLA still the evolutionary solution
or has "clearout and repopulation" opened other solutions.

Another point: How much realitybending was Boeing able to achieve
in their meme campaign against large quad VLA.
The "quads invariably are shit" meme has taken quite a good hold.

If meme do not fit well they will disolve over time.
But that takes .... time.
Murphy is an optimist
 
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keesje
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Re: Airbus A380 MidLife Upgrade, 2021?

Fri Feb 17, 2017 5:15 pm

I am staying factual. You are the one who said 1980. Yes, the early 80s were rough on the 747 but that was following a strong late 70s. The last time the A380 had more than 2 net orders was in 2014, thanks to Amedeo. You know the leasing company who in 3 years has yet to place one and whose entire order is conditional on that requirement.


The last order was ANA in 2016.

I can actually make another analogy about the A380/747 lifecycles. The A380 is where the 747 was in 2002,


The 747 was in service for 33 years in 2002..

Again you are not understanding that the current engines don't provide enough improvement over the A380's engines to be worth the development/certification costs, and RR/GE would like to see some ROI on their Trent 1000 TEN/Trent 7000/GEnX/GE9X. They are not going to develop a brand new engine that will immediately make them obsolete ~6 years after their introduction.


Ifis there no better engine in 2020 than e.g. "XWB-Ten", that's perfectly ok. It avoids the need / time / investment for something entirely new. The GP7000/T900 will be 15 yrs old by then.

Image
TXWB.. carbon fan in 2020? https://i.ytimg.com/vi/q5rCxwt5Dnw/maxresdefault.jpg

The groupthink the A380 is domed has never been away (power of repeating) during the last 15 years, but seems strong.
Until the next order usually. Big companies can't look just 2 years ahead & repeat what's popular.
Last edited by keesje on Fri Feb 17, 2017 5:23 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Revelation
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Re: Airbus A380 MidLife Upgrade, 2021?

Fri Feb 17, 2017 5:17 pm

keesje wrote:
If there's a year order drought, until it isn't.

And a production line is opened, till it isn't.

Seems your way to deal with the lack of a sensible engine choice in your chosen time frame is to change the topic?

However the order drought is a real thing. Iran Air had an eye-watering budget to work with, kicked the tires, and walked away. ANA ordered 3 frames because it could not risk Airbus supporting DL's bid for Skymark's Haneda slots. Amedeo has sat with 20 unfilled slots for several years now.

keesje wrote:
Listen to what Tom told his boss to present a few weeks ago.
https://youtu.be/9DcePvsD49w?t=20m6s

We have a future with this aircraft, despite "slow commercial performance" and a production line ramped down much slower than its last break-even year? Not very inspiring.

speedbored wrote:
Revelation wrote:
The same thing Tom Williams is talking about when he said "It doesn't make sense", ref: viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1355693#p19362421

But saying that a common engine for the A330neo and A380neo does not make sense (which is what he actually said if you don't take his quote out of context) is not at all the same thing as saying that a new engine for the A380 does not make sense.

The context of my reply was our thread starter asserting that the TXWB is a good choice to be put in service on the A380, and that was the same context as the TW comments.

MaksFly wrote:
As the global economy grows AND more and more people in Asia grow into the middle class, there will be a huge need for VLA.

This is the same line of reasoning we've been hearing from Airbus since the beginning of the program. The middle class in Asia has grown a lot since the A380 was launched and demand is being filled by much smaller planes than A380, and there's no evidence that the trend will change in time for the A380 production line to remain open.
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Hold away despair, more than this I will not ask.
Faced with mysteries dark and vast, statements just seem vain at last.
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Varsity1
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Re: Airbus A380 MidLife Upgrade, 2021?

Fri Feb 17, 2017 5:41 pm

The A380 has terrible cargo capacity for it's size.
Airbus made an egotistical gamble with the program and lost.
 
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Re: Airbus A380 MidLife Upgrade, 2021?

Fri Feb 17, 2017 5:45 pm

keesje wrote:
The 747 was in service for 33 years in 2002..

It's not at all comparable because the 747 didn't have airplanes like 77W and A359 undermining it like the A380 does now. The market conditions of 1969 are totally different than those of 2007 so you can't draw conclusions by overlapping their timelines. There are so many market trends that gave the 747 a long lifespan that just aren't present today.

keesje wrote:
Ifis there no better engine in 2020 than e.g. "XWB-Ten", that's perfectly ok.

No, it's not OK. The SFC gain offered by the TXWB is not enough to justify the cost of certifying it on the airframe. If it was, we'd be seeing that happen right now. EK pushed as hard as it could and it didn't happen.

keesje wrote:
The groupthink the A380 is domed has never been away (power of repeating) during the last 15 years, but seems strong.
Until the next order usually. Big companies can't look just 2 years ahead & repeat what's popular.

The groupthink that led Airbus to think we'd see 750 A380s built over 20 years was even stronger. They even decided it was a good thing to penalize the A380-800 because they were sure the -900 would be launched quickly. At least they built some nice facilities for the A320 program to use.
Inspiration, move me brightly! Light the song with sense and color.
Hold away despair, more than this I will not ask.
Faced with mysteries dark and vast, statements just seem vain at last.
Some rise, some fall, some climb, to get to Terrapin!
 
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Polot
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Re: Airbus A380 MidLife Upgrade, 2021?

Fri Feb 17, 2017 5:56 pm

keesje wrote:
The last order was ANA in 2016.

I was talking about net orders at end of the year. BTW ANA's A380 order was technically Dec 2015. Last A380 order was 2 from EK last April (picking up the 2 Skymark frames built but not completed). It came at the same time Air Austral cancelled their order however, hence why the A380 had a net 0 orders for the A380 last year.

keesje wrote:
The 747 was in service for 33 years in 2002..

So? There is no rule/law saying that the A380 will be in production ~50 years like the 747. The L-1011 lasted 16 years. The DC-10 lasted 20. If we pretend that the 747 will last 50 years 33 years in is 66% within its production cycle. If the A380 is currently 66% into its production cycle it has 6 years left. Which is 2023. Funny how well that lines up with when the A380 apparently needs a huge makeover. Note that Airbus currently has a realistic backlog to continue production for about half that time, and has been struggling the past 3/4 years to get meaningful orders.

keesje wrote:
Ifis there no better engine in 2020 than e.g. "XWB-Ten", that's perfectly ok. It avoids the need / time / investment for something entirely new. The GP7000/T900 will be 15 yrs old by then.

This isn't Vegas. Just because you build something doesn't mean the airlines will come flocking to it (the current A380, A319neo, 737-7Max are all proof of that). It is not whether things are "perfectly ok," it is whether improvements are good enough that airlines will be willing to pay Airbus more money to cover the additional development and certification costs. If not might as well just severely discount the current A380 to make up for its relative uncompetitiveness. The A380 is also not in a vacuum. It has to compete with the 779X and A350-1000 (and any potential A350 stretch) for airline's dollars.
 
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Wildlander
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Re: Airbus A380 MidLife Upgrade, 2021?

Fri Feb 17, 2017 6:10 pm

Whether you are a fan or detractor of the A380, allow me to suggest that Airbus have achieved much of what they set out to do. The infrastructure to support the A380 is now in-situ at many airports. The introduction of the A380 has allowed some frequencies to be freed up at some airports, with the 787 being a beneficiary. A lot of people have been able to savour a more enjoyable travel experience.

On the industrial front, the sales drought has forced Airbus to find ways and means of lowering the break-even production rate. Reliability is now on a par with other widebody types. Higher takeoff weights have allowed new city pairs to be served or higher payload on existing routes.

History repeated? The 747-100 started life at 9 abreast in Economy, had a lounge or bar or some such novelty upstairs. More functional layouts followed with much higher seat counts. The A380 cabin designers can probably create the means of adding upwards of a 100 seats, while maintaining comfort levels better than those of the 777. A 600 seat A380 - maybe more without a FC cabin (witness the 615 seat EK aircraft) - surely translates into attractive seat-mile costs over the busiest routes.

Is it so far fetched to suggest that Airbus can secure a market for one or two such aircraft in the years to come - until such time as a stretch makes sense or an appropriate re-engine candidate emerges?
 
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Polot
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Re: Airbus A380 MidLife Upgrade, 2021?

Fri Feb 17, 2017 6:21 pm

Wildlander wrote:
Is it so far fetched to suggest that Airbus can secure a market for one or two such aircraft in the years to come - until such time as a stretch makes sense or an appropriate re-engine candidate emerges?

The problem is the A380 needs more than a handful of orders each year to extend production, and it always seems the A380 is a "year or two" away from proving us all wrong and opening all the airlines' eyes. First EK was going to show the world and imitators will follow, but that never happened. Then the EK 2 class A380 was going to do it, yet here we are. Airbus (and I believe Amedeo) having been floating heavier density A380s yet so far no one is taking the bait. Now in A380 fan's eyes MH's experiment is going to be the one that is going to make the A380 into a break out star. The mantra "you need a A380 to compete against the A380" is repeated, yet disproven time and time again.

In the meantime to justify the lack of orders everyone points to traffic trends and how eventually no new airports will ever be built/improved and we will all need A380s to fly anywhere. Which for all we know can end up being true. But at some point you have to realistically consider that maybe things will not improve for the A380, and that perhaps the aircraft's size/performance was a little too far ahead of the market at this point and time.
 
Planesmart
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Re: Airbus A380 MidLife Upgrade, 2021?

Fri Feb 17, 2017 6:38 pm

N14AZ wrote:
Planesmart wrote:
How generous was Airbus when the project was delayed versus them now following Boeing's firm stance with delivery deferrals and model hopping penalties? Was the SQ agreement to take their remaining five A380's a result of this approach, and the subsequent 777X family order payback by SQ?

I am not sure if I get that point. SQ's remaining A380s will come from their third separate order made in 2012 (first order was in 2000 for 10 units, second order was in 2006 for additional 9 airframes)

The market has changed since 2012. Even SQ, in the interim, has seen a change in business volumes, routes and customer composition. If the 777X or comparable Airbus models were available sooner, and Airbus wasn't enforcing model hopping and delivery deferral penalties, perhaps they wouldn't be proceeding.
My point was made more in respect to other longstanding deferred orders, like Virgin and QF, which have yet to negotiated to a conclusion.
 
peterinlisbon
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Re: Airbus A380 MidLife Upgrade, 2021?

Fri Feb 17, 2017 6:51 pm

Unfortunately it isn't looking good for the A380. Even so, they'll be around for at least another 15 years or so. The aircraft of the future will be boring long tubes with 2 big engines and the only people that will notice the difference between one and another will be aviation enthusiasts and people that work in the industry. When I was a kid I used to go to Heathrow and watch the planes - there were so many different types (747-200/300/400, A330s, A340s, 757, 767, DC10, MD11, 777, Concorde, 737s, A320s, BAe 146s), all different colours, from different places all over the world. People were sitting there with sandwiches and radios and there was a shop selling aircraft models and magazines. Families came there to enjoy a day out together. Now if you go there, if security don't chase you away you get to see 9 A320s followed by a few 777 and 787, and then maybe 2 A380s and then back to the A320s again. All of them are plain white with a few random dabs of colour on the tail. It's getting boring. I guess they've found what works and they're sticking to it.
 
parapente
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Re: Airbus A380 MidLife Upgrade, 2021?

Fri Feb 17, 2017 6:57 pm

For what it's worth (nothing) I have never bought into this idea that the A380 'has' to happen because all the runways will be full up.Heathrow is nearly full sooo they are building another runway.Dubai is getting full so they are building a new airport,just like they did in HK.NY now has a double hub and so on.
No it will have to succeed or fail on its own merits.The real problem is not that there was not a VLA gap in the market.It is simply there is not a profitable market in the gap.Forecasts were circa 1,200-1,400 as I recall.The real market is less than half that and certainly not able to carry 2 aircraft and possibly not even one.

Clearly neither Boeing or Airbus were willing to let the other have it to themselves so now we have a complete financial mess.

But easy to be an armchair critic.If you had been A or B way back then (the technology of the time)what would you have done.?
 
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Revelation
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Re: Airbus A380 MidLife Upgrade, 2021?

Fri Feb 17, 2017 7:31 pm

peterinlisbon wrote:
Unfortunately it isn't looking good for the A380. Even so, they'll be around for at least another 15 years or so. The aircraft of the future will be boring long tubes with 2 big engines and the only people that will notice the difference between one and another will be aviation enthusiasts and people that work in the industry. When I was a kid I used to go to Heathrow and watch the planes - there were so many different types (747-200/300/400, A330s, A340s, 757, 767, DC10, MD11, 777, Concorde, 737s, A320s, BAe 146s), all different colours, from different places all over the world. People were sitting there with sandwiches and radios and there was a shop selling aircraft models and magazines. Families came there to enjoy a day out together. Now if you go there, if security don't chase you away you get to see 9 A320s followed by a few 777 and 787, and then maybe 2 A380s and then back to the A320s again. All of them are plain white with a few random dabs of colour on the tail. It's getting boring. I guess they've found what works and they're sticking to it.

Yes, and as a software engineer, I've programmed PDP-8, PDP-11, IBM 3xxx, 68xxx, Intel x86/i960, MIPS, PowerPC, Alpha, SPARC etc and nowadays all anyone wants to know about is Intel x86 or ARM (and even Intel is getting a bit dodgy these days). The world does tend to converge on a small number of solutions.
Inspiration, move me brightly! Light the song with sense and color.
Hold away despair, more than this I will not ask.
Faced with mysteries dark and vast, statements just seem vain at last.
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rotating14
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Re: Airbus A380 MidLife Upgrade, 2021?

Fri Feb 17, 2017 7:46 pm

How this thread has reached so many entries/posts is amazing, considering how beaten to death we are about hearing of the constant hypotheticals of the A380. People couldn't post fast enough that Iran was buying A380s. But what made the A380 suddenly appealing? Nothing. It's the same plane that is admired by passengers and shunned by accountants and some current operators. Yes, some carriers who fly it now wish they'd bought something else.

Saying that 'in 2021 the Grand Central Advance 992 will be available and with a stretch and a tweak the A380 will be a winner'. Not happening. As already mentioned, no engine maker is going to invest money in a new engine without any forecast of what it can make on it. RR is swimming in the red, GE is a no go and PW is not on board. Based on the behavior of QF, LH, AF, tells me that these deferrals, swaps and cancellations are for a reason. It's inflexible and a niche aircraft to a niche audience.

Sure, label me a A380 hater but I am not sure can paint this another. Changing the font from white to violet and rehashing speculative themes about how "if" happens it "should" and "could" do something by the year 2445 doesn't change the narrative. If carriers believed in it, they'd have it.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Airbus A380 MidLife Upgrade, 2021?

Fri Feb 17, 2017 8:04 pm

Let's recall all the old 747 operators who had to choose between the 748 and A380 who choose otherwise:
JAL
ANA
Iberia
United Airlines
Delta/Northwest
Air India


The large planes must offer a significant cost per passenger discount over the A350 and 777.

The only way for the A380 to compete is:
1. New wing tip treatments, ideally a CFRP wing with folding wingtips
2. A stretch
3. 11-across Y
4. New engines

Abandoning EK's NEO proposal forced EK to plan for a different future.

It is like the 747, time to accept the end is near for the A380. Time for Airbus to invest elsewhere.

We are in a drought of widebody sales. Two years ago when airlines would take on more risk the A380NEO couldn't build a business case. In the risk averse environment of today? Time to reach acceptance.

Lightsaber
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keesje
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Re: Airbus A380 MidLife Upgrade, 2021?

Sat Feb 18, 2017 12:44 am

[Also nothing really matched the 747 for range, and when we look back on the past 50 years, that's really where the aircraft became significant, being able to carry a reasonable payload over a greater distance than any other aircraft. With the advent of the A340, and then the 777, followed by the A330, 787 and A350, many of the long range routes which were previously the sole domain of the 747 can be flown without carrying around the structure of a bigger aircraft than what is needed to carry the number of passengers on a particular route.


When the 747 was born the smaller, cheaper DC10 and L1011 were on their way. DC8 & 707 dominated longhaul.

Let's recall all the old 747 operators who had to choose between the 748 and A380 who choose otherwise:
JAL
ANA
Iberia
United Airlines
Delta/Northwest
Air India


You cherry picked here. ;) Old 747 operators who had to choose between the 748 and A380 who choose A380:

Singapore Airlines
Emirates
Qantas
Air France
China Southern Airlines
Malaysia Airlines
Thai Airways
British Airways
Asiana Airlines
Qatar Airways
Etihad Airways


The only way for the A380 to compete is:
1. New wing tip treatments, ideally a CFRP wing with folding wingtips
2. A stretch
3. 11-across Y
4. New engines


Which all doesn't look rocket science to me.

Keesje wrote:
The 747 was in service for 33 years in 2002..
So? There is no rule/law saying that the A380 will be in production ~50 years like the 747.


Comparing life cycles, it's a kind of usual to start at the same point..

No, it's not OK. The SFC gain offered by the TXWB is not enough to justify the cost of certifying it on the airframe. If it was, we'd be seeing that happen right now.


The Trent900 was developed 15-17 years ago. Factoring in todays higher temperatures & pressures, a lighter, bigger fan / fan cowl combined with better aircraft / wing earodynamics, higher seatcounts I think a significant CASM improvement over the current A380 is possible.

Still, I'm amazed how people choose to ignore the raw capacity/slot difference with the 777-9, as just another variable for airlines.. :wideeyed:
Yes the current A380 is a 500+ seater, No, the 777-9 will not be a 400+ seater by the same metrics. It's 30-40% smaller. ~325 seats.

Image
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
Whalejet
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Re: Airbus A380 MidLife Upgrade, 2021?

Sat Feb 18, 2017 2:46 am

lightsaber wrote:
Let's recall all the old 747 operators who had to choose between the 748 and A380 who choose otherwise:
JAL
ANA
Iberia
United Airlines
Delta/Northwest
Air India


The large planes must offer a significant cost per passenger discount over the A350 and 777.

The only way for the A380 to compete is:
1. New wing tip treatments, ideally a CFRP wing with folding wingtips
2. A stretch
3. 11-across Y
4. New engines

Abandoning EK's NEO proposal forced EK to plan for a different future.

It is like the 747, time to accept the end is near for the A380. Time for Airbus to invest elsewhere.

We are in a drought of widebody sales. Two years ago when airlines would take on more risk the A380NEO couldn't build a business case. In the risk averse environment of today? Time to reach acceptance.

Lightsaber


Or airbus somehow manages to market 800 seat all Y class A380s to ryanair to fly transatlantic at 50$ a ticket.

But seriously, many A380 supporters (myself included) pointed to 2009 crash as a reason for the lack of more A380 sales-the 747 was launched in the middle of a downturn. But, the economy has mostly recovered and fuel prices are pretty low IIRC, yet nobody is buying the A380. Many A380 customers are not even touching above 500 seats on the A380, and so I don't see a need for a stretch if airlines can't fill existing seats.

The 380, for the magnificent feat of engineering and how much I love it as a someone who has flown on the thing 7 times, is dead. A re-engine would force you to convince RR to do something, which is a dead end.
 
grbauc
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Re: Airbus A380 MidLife Upgrade, 2021?

Sat Feb 18, 2017 3:47 am

MaksFly wrote:
Amazing to see this discussion here and to look at how "USA" centric a lot of this forum is.

For all of this talk about how US carriers may never order the A380... who cares... that is not where the global growth is, or will be coming from.

You just have to look at demographics and global trends.

Take a look.
http://www.visualcapitalist.com/majorit ... es-circle/

The need for a VLA like the A380 will come, but what we are bickering about is 20 years one way or another in a theme that will play out over hundreds of years.

All you have to do is look there now, look at the widebodies full to the brim flying short hops.

As more and more people are able to afford air travel, you will be able to fill them up.

The other issue with the A380 and when it launched.... even though Airbus put it out as a CASM monster, in the mid 2000's it was all about luxury and throwing money out the window... that is when you have the showers and bars. What was intended as a capacity play turned into a luxury play... (think of all those SUV that are merely used to go pick up groceries).

As the global economy grows AND more and more people in Asia grow into the middle class, there will be a huge need for VLA.


And you have airlines right in the middle of that graph struggling with there A380's. unfortunately by the time your the region you highlight are able to travel on long flights (cost) it the A380 will prob be long done. The only change i've seen in the region besides airlines trying to get rid of there A380's is for them to be made in to special Religious charters and Hawaii busses.
Doesn't matter that most of the points are US centered the facts don't change. I for one want them to and wish things would work out different. 748 lover and huge admirer of the A380 but has of now the market seems headed towards a different path. :worried:
 
grbauc
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Re: Airbus A380 MidLife Upgrade, 2021?

Sat Feb 18, 2017 3:50 am

VirginFlyer wrote:
N14AZ wrote:
But at that time there was no alternative capacity-wise. We shall see if it will be the same when the replacement-phase for the first A380s starts.

Also nothing really matched the 747 for range, and when we look back on the past 50 years, that's really where the aircraft became significant, being able to carry a reasonable payload over a greater distance than any other aircraft. With the advent of the A340, and then the 777, followed by the A330, 787 and A350, many of the long range routes which were previously the sole domain of the 747 can be flown without carrying around the structure of a bigger aircraft than what is needed to carry the number of passengers on a particular route. I actually think Airbus fundamentally misread the key attraction of the 747, and assumed that because big was good, bigger would be better. They doubled down on that by optimising the design around the A380-900.

All that said, I think it is inevitable that there will be a growing need for large aircraft, it's just the need for an aircraft the size of the A380, for most operators, isn't there other than on a handful of routes for the foreseeable future. I wonder if Airbus could mothball the production when the orders are filled (realistically at 20 deliveries in 2017, then 12 a year from then on, its all done by end-2021 unless new orders materialise, or existing ones which seem unlikely become more likely again), allow the market and engine technology to catch up, then have an A380neo ready for EIS towards the end of the 2020s. Question is, would it still stand up against the carbon winged twins available then, or would it need to be stretched to realise its true potential (which means the market would need even longer to catch up to the capacity being offered).

V/F


:checkmark: :checkmark: :checkmark: You don't have to have a 747 to reach the range of the twins couldn't back in the early days of the 747. If twins could fly that far I'm sure the life span of the 747 might be a lot shorter.
 
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rotating14
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Re: Airbus A380 MidLife Upgrade, 2021?

Sat Feb 18, 2017 3:57 am

keesje wrote:
Still, I'm amazed how people choose to ignore the raw capacity/slot difference with the 777-9, as just another variable for airlines.. :wideeyed:
Yes the current A380 is a 500+ seater, No, the 777-9 will not be a 400+ seater by the same metrics. It's 30-40% smaller. ~325 seats.


Yet it's continuing to be a worldwide seller, not just a Middle Eastern built machine. What is there to be amazed over? The airlines buying the 779 know WAY more about its capabilities than anyone here on this site would know and how it would fit in their respective fleet. I'm trying to figure out the obsession for down playing 779 as a competitor to the A380.

In the post above you listed Singapore Airlines
Emirates Qantas Air France China Southern Airlines MalaysiaAirlines Thai Airways British Airways Asiana Airlines Qatar Airways Etihad Airways
as airlines that chose the A380 over the 748i. But how many of these airlines are repeat buyers? 2 of 13. That's not confidence.

Do you really think that New wing tip treatments, ideally a CFRP wing with folding wingtip, A stretch, 11-across Y, New engines are not rocket science?? If it was that easy, it would have been implemented already.
 
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N14AZ
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Re: Airbus A380 MidLife Upgrade, 2021?

Sat Feb 18, 2017 7:33 am

rotating14 wrote:
keesje wrote:
Still, I'm amazed how people choose to ignore the raw capacity/slot difference with the 777-9, as just another variable for airlines.. :wideeyed:
Yes the current A380 is a 500+ seater, No, the 777-9 will not be a 400+ seater by the same metrics. It's 30-40% smaller. ~325 seats.


Do you really think that New wing tip treatments, ideally a CFRP wing with folding wingtip, A stretch, 11-across Y, New engines are not rocket science?? If it was that easy, it would have been implemented already.

It's not rocket science, so to speak, but it requires a lot of money and Airbus and obviously RR came to the conclusion that so far they don't see a business case to start the NEO-project. This is all well documented, I could look for the links of the associated interviews/statements but I have to walk the dog now...
 
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keesje
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Re: Airbus A380 MidLife Upgrade, 2021?

Sat Feb 18, 2017 11:38 am

rotating14 wrote:
keesje wrote:
Still, I'm amazed how people choose to ignore the raw capacity/slot difference with the 777-9, as just another variable for airlines.. :wideeyed:
Yes the current A380 is a 500+ seater, No, the 777-9 will not be a 400+ seater by the same metrics. It's 30-40% smaller. ~325 seats.


Yet it's continuing to be a worldwide seller, not just a Middle Eastern built machine. What is there to be amazed over? The airlines buying the 779 know WAY more about its capabilities than anyone here on this site would know and how it would fit in their respective fleet. I'm trying to figure out the obsession for down playing 779 as a competitor to the A380.

In the post above you listed Singapore Airlines
Emirates Qantas Air France China Southern Airlines MalaysiaAirlines Thai Airways British Airways Asiana Airlines Qatar Airways Etihad Airways
as airlines that chose the A380 over the 748i. But how many of these airlines are repeat buyers? 2 of 13. That's not confidence.

Do you really think that New wing tip treatments, ideally a CFRP wing with folding wingtip, A stretch, 11-across Y, New engines are not rocket science?? If it was that easy, it would have been implemented already.


New wing tips, stretches, "new" engines and a seat extra have been done before.. It's not like a new carbon wing.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
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