Better late than never, oneworld alliance are finally getting their skates on and taking Africa seriously. They're also considering tie ups with LCCs to provide connection opportunities.

http://www.ch-aviation.com/portal/news/ ... cc-members

Very much overdue in my view. They've literally been asleep at the wheel in terms of securing reliable partners in not just Africa but in Central & Southern Europe, China, Subcontinent & Central America too.

Let the speculation begin on which airline(s) they've got in their sights and the potential for different connectivity options.

What airlines are even available for alliance consideration in Africa ? Air Namibia ? SAA, Egyptair and Ethiopian are all Star alliance members. Royal Air Maroc could be a possibility for Oneworld or Skyteam.

In Central America what large airline is available ? Avianca is in Star as is Copa of Panama. AeroMexico is in Skyteam and soon to be 49% owned by Delta which is the mother of Skyteam. None here for membership consideration.

The question is what airlines they are after in Africa. RAM gives them only what IB could also give them if they properly focussed. ET won't leave Star and SA I could only see if BA was to exit ZA with their massive Comair operation. RJ and QR give them what MS would give them. Rwandair would be an interesting fit.

Royal Air Maroc is already in partnership with IB, so would be a likely member, but that only connects W Africa. TAAG could be a good option and then get the vast majority of the S Atlantic TATL traffic.

As far as Latin America, I mean...LATAM isn't exactly small and they are trying to grow. (I don't know to consider LATAM one member or lots of members). Central America in itself isn't a huge market and Copa makes it's money from connections.

And IB doesn't count as S. Europe?

Yeah ...not gonna help them in China

Considering how RAM is moving to Avios, it would surprise me to see them go anywhere but OW,cementing in their IAG relationship. Rwandair is interesting as always but I kinda doubt it. QR is the only one to serve Kigali and that is via Kampala-Entebbe. Talking about central & Southern Europe, maybe Meridiana finally goes for it? There's literally nothing in Central America for them, which kinda stinks, but hey, maybe LATAM will add a subsidiary.

In China lies one of Oneworld's problems. They can't add Hainan because it competes ferociously with Cathay out of HK via HK Airlines. They can't add China Eastern, regardless of the pact with Qantas, because Cathay is hooked to Air China via stock. China is Oneworld's limbo. I think that various carriers will just pick a combination of Hainan and/or Eastern to fit their needs for the country.

In the subcontinent (India specifically), AI is in Star, Jet does not seem likely (via their partnerships with Delta/KLM & partial Etihad ownership) and neither is Vistara.
So that only leaves IndiGo & Spicejet and of those two clearly IndiGo is the best candidate on account of their sheer market presence.

Ro

RohanDXB wrote:

In the subcontinent (India specifically), AI is in Star, Jet does not seem likely (via their partnerships with Delta/KLM & partial Etihad ownership) and neither is Vistara.
So that only leaves IndiGo & Spicejet and of those two clearly IndiGo is the best candidate on account of their sheer market presence.

Ro

I mean, that's what Sri Lankan was for. BA and QR both have pretty good penetration into India, too.

I think it's unlikely to get any further moves there.

I could see China Eastern switching for China. They are already sandwiched geographically in Skyteam between China Southern and Korean that combined with Cathay, Malaysian and JAL would make for very comprehensive coverage of E. and SE Asia

It's interesting that they say they'll accept LCCs, but I wonder if there are any LCCs who are willing to accept oneworld.

Regardless, I think Fastjet will be willing to try anything at this point and they might be a good candidate.

If they can get Indigo in India, it will be a great addition, if Indigo accepts, which appears to be unlikely. But more likely Spicejet or Vistara would agree. Vistara does not have the depth yet, but Spicejet has and it serves smaller cities.

jfk777 wrote:

What airlines are even available for alliance consideration in Africa ? Air Namibia ? SAA, Egyptair and Ethiopian are all Star alliance members. Royal Air Maroc could be a possibility for Oneworld or Skyteam.

In Central America what large airline is available ? Avianca is in Star as is Copa of Panama. AeroMexico is in Skyteam and soon to be 49% owned by Delta which is the mother of Skyteam. None here for membership consideration.

RAM has been able to builda very good network in Africa, which is no easy feat. (bilaterals, cost of doing business et.) Iberia would have a hard time building such a network, and would not be able to do it as cheaply as RAM (Ram's labour cost are very low)

It should be a priority for IAG to partner with RAM.

I'm really struggling to see what airline(s) would work. RAM is definitely a good one and would give a lot of presence in West and even, somewhat, Central Africa...but we'd definitely need to see multiple OneWorld carriers start serving CMN to make it realistic.

Someone mentioned Air Namibia earlier. As a Namibian, I would kill for that, but alas there's no way that would ever happen.

TAAG is also incredibly unlikely (yet more likely than Air Namibia!). They still have a very poor reputation in much of the world, despite how much better they have gotten recently, and that would be a hard sell.

sw733 wrote:

I'm really struggling to see what airline(s) would work. RAM is definitely a good one and would give a lot of presence in West and even, somewhat, Central Africa...but we'd definitely need to see multiple OneWorld carriers start serving CMN to make it realistic.

Not necessarily, Royal Air Maroc serves plenty of OW hubs and those carriers could simply code share on those flights regardless of whether they fly to CMN or not on their own metal. Relevant for OW hubs RAM serves MAD (IB) / BNC (VY) / LHR&LGW (BA) / DOH (QR) / JFK (AA) / GRU&GIG (JJ). RAM is expanding out of its comfort zone in Africa and is expanding East; they now serve Nairobi and have concluded a code share agreement with Air Tanzania for a future CMN-DAR. They're already the largest airline in North/West & Central Africa and the 2nd largest carrier on the EU-Africa market behind AF (which excludes them from joining Skyteam as they are in direct competition). RAM has a 100 destination strong network, with partners where it matters to them. I think OW should do the courting here.

The prospect of Royal Air Maroc joining the OW alliance is being raised at least a few times a year, incl by yours truly

viewtopic.php?t=589129
viewtopic.php?t=605447

''Some indications so far that confirm RAM's preference towards the One World alliance:

- RAM & IB have already been for some time code share partners for Morocco - Spain traffic.
- IB Avios miles can already be redeemed on RAM flights, the same goes for Safar Flyer miles (RAM FFP) on IB flights.
- RAM & QR have a JV in place for Morocco-Qatar traffic as well as linking Africa-Asia.
- The latest signing to become Avios partner.
Rumors so far of QR wanting to purchase a stake in RAM (not holding my breath for this one to be honest.) ''

And in the "circle of life" of airlines, RAM used to be a partner with TW, which is now AA. So RAM joining OW would be a "reunion" of sorts.

Do not forget there are still Air Mauritius , Air Austral , Air Madagascar , TAM ( Mocambique ) , Air Seychelles , Air Tanzania , Air Mauritania , Air Senegal etc etc From LCC Safair and 1Time Airlines , Fast Jet

I have two questions.

The article states that "Oneworld" is pursuing an African member, but are the efforts being made by the OW organization or by a specific airline?

In addition, why has the Nigerian market been ignored for so long? How can OW be serisously looking for an African partner while bypassing the second largest ecoomy on the continent? Arik has no major partnership and is ripe for an equity stake.

Regarding Nigeria, maybe they are concerned about any potential governmental interference? Nigeria and airlines don't seem to mix!

The obvious target should be Royal Air Maroc. Qatar Cargo already purchases belly cargo space on RAM planes, and they have a major African network with right-sized planes. One also must wonder if the Moroccan government would be willing to sell a significant stake to IAG (but not a majority stake). They make too much sense for oneworld. That said, RAM does not fly to South Africa---do they have too few wide-bodies to be able to do so? (They have 4 767s and 5 787s.) They could offer IAG more options to there if RAM does so...maybe IAG could damp-lease a few stored A340-300s to RAM short-term to see if it works? The ones that weren't sold and leased back are already paid off.

As for LCCs willing to accept oneworld---Interjet seems like a possibility (they codeshare with four airlines---all oneworld members).

vlad1971 wrote:

Do not forget there are still Air Mauritius , Air Austral , Air Madagascar , TAM ( Mocambique ) , Air Seychelles , Air Tanzania , Air Mauritania , Air Senegal etc etc From LCC Safair and 1Time Airlines , Fast Jet

On the LCC front...1Time doesn't exist anymore, FastJet at the moment isn't much of an operation, keeps scaling down. FlySafair has a good operation, but only domestic in South Africa at the moment, and not offering more than what Comair can offer. Comair's LCC brand Kulula might probably be pulled in for a few more connections, but not really offering a lot more.

Air Mauritius is a good candidate, however, for the African continent in itself not offering much, but will be a good addition actually for what they do offer in the Indian Ocean and connections between Africa and Asia/Australia

Air Austral similarly too far out and less destinations than MK

Air Madagascar not really offering much either

LAM (Mocambique) almost only domestic Mocambique and 3 neighbouring destinations

Air Seychelles has got a good operation going as well, offering good connection services nowadays, however it's affiliated with Etihad...

Air Tanzania, Air Mauritania I think is 1 or 2 plane operations at the moment.

Air Senegal is always struggling

Byrdluvs747 wrote:

Arik has no major partnership and is ripe for an equity stake.

Arik is going nowhere slowly, just now this week suspended their last longhaul routes (JNB and LHR) and is down to only 9 aircraft operating.

RAM is a very good candidate as mentioned, there's been murmurings of them looking to return to JNB, however OW don't need them to operate that route really as JNB is quite well connected for OW operations together with the Comair affiliation. If AA finally decides to fly to JNB, then JNB might be one of only a few airports served from all continents by OW (QF, CX, QR, LATAM, BA, IB).

Rwandair is also a good upcoming candidate, they've got a good network covering Southern, Eastern, Central and West Africa while now moving into the intercontinental arena as well with their 2 A330s recently delivered.

TAAG is also up and coming and developing a good connecting network from Southern Africa to Portugal/Brazil/Cuba...which can be expanded if they get pass all the restrictions (if they still have?)...and also the new LAD airport completed. They have in the last 18months changed network schedules in such a way to offer good connections from JNB/CPT/MPM/WDH/LUN/HRE and domestic to LIS/OPO/GRU/GIG/HAV and some Central African destinations. For example their CPT-LAD sector which started only a few years ago as 2 weekly 737-700 is now at 3 weekly 777-200/300 mix and just today announced to increase to daily 777 mix from November'17...due to popularity of traffic from Europe (via Portugal) mostly and Brazil to CPT. They have a management agreement with Emirates which I presume is part to play for these improvements of their services, so don't know what effect that can have on them joining alliances.

For reasonably good coverage across Africa I believe OW should be looking at RAM, Rwandair and Air Mauritius...as these together with Comair South Africa will connect and cover majority of countries without too much overlapping.

TAAG is unlikely because it is managed by EK. For Central America, Interjet is a no-brainer with existing Oneworld partnerships and a hard product on par with full-service airlines.

As for Central Europe, Meridiana may work with the QR equity stake, but whether it feels "premium" enough for Oneworld is questionable (2-4-2 config on 767s, for starters). Air Berlin at least offers a proper long-haul business class product and a somewhat reasonable economy class seat. Pegasus and AtlasGlobal in Turkey would also fit in well, filling in destinations not served by Finnair and S7. Or even UIA, though it has the same reputation problem as Meridiana.

Asia: they can add a Korean LCC such as Jeju Air to help connect a few secondary Chinese destinations, but that's about it for northeast Asia. Adding IndiGo would be a major coup for Oneworld, though IndiGo isn't interested in such partnerships. Failing that, SpiceJet or GoAir may work. In Central Asia, Azerbaijan Airlines and Uzbekistan Airlines are suitable alliance candidates, though these are probably more suitable for Star Alliance and SkyTeam respectively. S7 already has plenty of coverage.

Since we are talking about LCCs, why not throw in Vueling? That would be easier to integrate and would instantly provide Oneworld with much more central European coverage.

hohd wrote:

But more likely Spicejet or Vistara would agree.

Vistara is a joint venture between Tata and Singapore Airlines. So no realistic chance of it joining oneworld...

GRJGeorge wrote:

On the LCC front...1Time doesn't exist anymore, FastJet at the moment isn't much of an operation, keeps scaling down. FlySafair has a good operation, but only domestic in South Africa at the moment, and not offering more than what Comair can offer. Comair's LCC brand Kulula might probably be pulled in for a few more connections, but not really offering a lot more.

With respect to potential budget (LCC) members or allies, the article does not suggest that this is limited to Africa. For example, <b>one</b>world members IB and AA have started relationships with Interjet in Mexico in order to offer more connection options to their passengers. It would not surprise me if the alliance would seek some kind of ties with carriers such as Interjet in different regions of the world, just like Star Alliance has announced it will do with respect to certain budget carriers.