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KarelXWB
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Emirates again pushes back A350/787 decision

Mon Feb 13, 2017 9:07 pm

No A350 or 787 order in the near term.

Emirates already has tens of billions of dollars of aircraft on order with both the Boeing in the U.S. and Airbus in Europe, but it has slowed down its plans for buying more. The three options on Clark's desk again delays a decision on whether or not to buy Boeing 787s or Airbus A350s.

"When the time is right we will decide," said Clark. "But so far, we are just biding our time to see which way it all pans out."


Source
http://money.cnn.com/2017/02/13/news/co ... index.html
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Revelation
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Re: Emirates again pushes back A350/787 decision

Mon Feb 13, 2017 10:02 pm

KarelXWB wrote:
No A350 or 787 order in the near term.

Emirates already has tens of billions of dollars of aircraft on order with both the Boeing in the U.S. and Airbus in Europe, but it has slowed down its plans for buying more. The three options on Clark's desk again delays a decision on whether or not to buy Boeing 787s or Airbus A350s.

"When the time is right we will decide," said Clark. "But so far, we are just biding our time to see which way it all pans out."


Source
http://actus.clicanoo.re/article/econom ... de-dairbus


Thanks, but is that the right link? It's a french-language one, titled "Air Mauritius modifie sa commande d'Airbus" so it seems wrong.

http://money.cnn.com/2017/02/13/news/co ... index.html said:

Clark, longtime president of the world's largest international airline, told CNN's Richard Quest there are three different studies on his desk today. Over the next 18 months the airline will decide between adding the smaller aircraft like the Boeing 737 or Airbus A320, combining that with a deal for smaller twin-aisle jets, or continuing to only buy twin-aisle aircraft.


I think we can regard 18 months as a slip, since I think we expected a decision this year.

I also found the following TC quote to be of interest:

"The last three of four years as the oil prices come off, we have reduced our fares to point of...stupidity in my view. That has affected our bottom line," said Clark. "We have a difficult time in global economics. We have a difficult time in global geopolitics and there is a degree of volatility out there."


Unfortunately for TC, you can't put the genie back in to the bottle.

In any case, this seems to be about as pessimistic as we've seen EK be.
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PerfectGriffin
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Re: Emirates again pushes back A350/787 decision

Mon Feb 13, 2017 11:57 pm

I don't think EK will be making this order until their profits and load factors improve. Right now they are increasing capacity whilst their loads and profits are falling.
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: Emirates again pushes back A350/787 decision

Tue Feb 14, 2017 1:49 am

PerfectGriffin wrote:
whilst their loads and profits are falling.

Not entirely surprising for an airline whose smallest gauge is a 700K lb bird meant to fly 20hr flights... :lol:
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
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Re: Emirates again pushes back A350/787 decision

Tue Feb 14, 2017 2:05 am

EK has too many big planes. They need smaller, long-legged ones like the 787. They obviously know more than this armchair QB in New Hampshire. But they also must know that QR and Etihad are slowing their own expansion, so EK probably feels the pressure is off on moving quickly. In the U.S. most but not all untapped markets for them are too small for a 77W. If they have designs on doubling the number of U.S. destinations they need smaller planes than the 77W. The 77L doesn't even really factor in because (a) they're getting old and (b) they only have ten of them.
 
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Re: Emirates again pushes back A350/787 decision

Tue Feb 14, 2017 4:24 am

EK will need to focus on how to generate more revenue and fill up the seats on their big aircraft before thinking on the smaller one.
 
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PerfectGriffin
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Re: Emirates again pushes back A350/787 decision

Tue Feb 14, 2017 4:59 am

chrisnh wrote:
EK has too many big planes. They need smaller, long-legged ones like the 787. They obviously know more than this armchair QB in New Hampshire. But they also must know that QR and Etihad are slowing their own expansion, so EK probably feels the pressure is off on moving quickly. In the U.S. most but not all untapped markets for them are too small for a 77W. If they have designs on doubling the number of U.S. destinations they need smaller planes than the 77W. The 77L doesn't even really factor in because (a) they're getting old and (b) they only have ten of them.


EY has significantly slowed expansion but QR is growing faster than ever.
 
Planeflyer
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Re: Emirates again pushes back A350/787 decision

Tue Feb 14, 2017 5:27 am

It will be interesting to see how they respond. Could they swap out orders for current aircraft for a 359 or 789? Seems like they have the negotiating clout if it makes sense to do it.
 
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cv990Coronado
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Re: Emirates again pushes back A350/787 decision

Tue Feb 14, 2017 5:58 am

Planeflyer wrote:
It will be interesting to see how they respond. Could they swap out orders for current aircraft for a 359 or 789? Seems like they have the negotiating clout if it makes sense to do it.


I can't see Boeing being too happy swapping 777X's for 789's or Airbus swapping 380's for 359's, when both projects are heavily dependent on EK. But, as you quite rightly say, EK do have negotiating clout - interesting times.
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Re: Emirates again pushes back A350/787 decision

Tue Feb 14, 2017 5:58 am

Or in other words, we have too much capacity and Boeing has just rediscovered the need for a healthy margin on the 787, while Airbus is not offering a good deal either.
 
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Re: Emirates again pushes back A350/787 decision

Tue Feb 14, 2017 6:41 am

Boeing: "Your choice: a 789 or a gap-filling 77W at the same price. Well, actually, we'd rather sell you the 77W, so it's a bit more for the 789."

Airbus: "We know what Boeing wants to charge you for a 789, and so we'll charge you that much plus a bit for an A350. Unless you want to cancel A380 orders at the same time, then we'll charge quite a bit more. Want a cheap plane? Check out this A330neo."
 
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KarelXWB
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Re: Emirates again pushes back A350/787 decision

Tue Feb 14, 2017 9:33 am

Revelation wrote:
Thanks, but is that the right link? It's a french-language one, titled "Air Mauritius modifie sa commande d'Airbus" so it seems wrong.


Thanks, fixed. I mixed up several links.
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parapente
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Re: Emirates again pushes back A350/787 decision

Tue Feb 14, 2017 9:38 am

Seabosdca-yup I imagine those would be the answers!
But there is so much he can do himself if he is concerned about overcapacity and declining margins.

1. He does not 'have' to fly his 773's at X10Y.People have been running them perfectly profitably at X9 for decades.
2.He could (and should IMHO) introduce a Premium class.Ok not for every sector he flies on but a huge amount, pax would love a Premium class,they seem to with other airlines.
3.After a decade of rapid growth it's a good time to look at your overheads/costs as there is always 'creep'.Mind you I get the impression he is already doing this.

As for DWA I don't think (unless they are mad - they are not) it will be happening for many a long year. There is no need for it and a huge amount of communications infrastructure will need to be added first,it's more than extra runways.
 
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Re: Emirates again pushes back A350/787 decision

Tue Feb 14, 2017 10:51 am

parapente wrote:
Seabosdca-yup I imagine those would be the answers!
But there is so much he can do himself if he is concerned about overcapacity and declining margins.

1. He does not 'have' to fly his 773's at X10Y.People have been running them perfectly profitably at X9 for decades.
2.He could (and should IMHO) introduce a Premium class.Ok not for every sector he flies on but a huge amount, pax would love a Premium class,they seem to with other airlines.
3.After a decade of rapid growth it's a good time to look at your overheads/costs as there is always 'creep'.Mind you I get the impression he is already doing this.

As for DWA I don't think (unless they are mad - they are not) it will be happening for many a long year. There is no need for it and a huge amount of communications infrastructure will need to be added first,it's more than extra runways.


Premium economy has been announced and is coming: https://www.ausbt.com.au/emirates-confi ... r-mid-2018
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parapente
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Re: Emirates again pushes back A350/787 decision

Tue Feb 14, 2017 11:22 am

Thanks Pe@rson.I had not read this.Although he does appear to contradict himself half way through the article saying he had not made up his mind.Never the less,I think we can safely say he will do it for selective routes.Clearly Australia as stated in the article.But I would imagine Europe and US too.
I think the general rule of thumb for Premium is X2£ from economy and X2 again to business class?
 
klm617
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Re: Emirates again pushes back A350/787 decision

Tue Feb 14, 2017 1:38 pm

I would assume knowing how this game is played they are waiting to see what president Trump does when dealing with the ME3 and the amount of access he gives them to US markets. Chose wisely Mr. Trump a Boeing order would help our economy greatly.
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Re: Emirates again pushes back A350/787 decision

Tue Feb 14, 2017 1:43 pm

wolfsburg wrote:
EK will need to focus on how to generate more revenue and fill up the seats on their big aircraft before thinking on the smaller one.


Yes it does seem strange thinking smaller when they have just got rid of their 330's.

Looks like they have decided to try and utilise the assets they already have more effectively, before shelling out more cash.
 
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Re: Emirates again pushes back A350/787 decision

Tue Feb 14, 2017 3:25 pm

seabosdca wrote:

... Airbus: "... Want a cheap plane? Check out this A330neo."


That's the point I don't understand - a A330-900 neo should do perfectly fine on all routes to Europe, Middle East and Africa and most if not all routes to Asia. I know they are not well suited for the Americas and Oceania. But I doubt that it makes sence to buy and fly around all the unneeded range on the EMEA/Asia routes.
 
ILNFlyer
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Re: Emirates again pushes back A350/787 decision

Tue Feb 14, 2017 3:56 pm

seahawk wrote:
Or in other words, we have too much capacity and Boeing has just rediscovered the need for a healthy margin on the 787, while Airbus is not offering a good deal either.


:lol: Nailed it.
 
SonOfABeech
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Re: Emirates again pushes back A350/787 decision

Tue Feb 14, 2017 5:26 pm

Parking space at DXB will be a big constraint until DWC is ready. Surely this affects the preference for bigger planes.
 
HMK31
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Re: Emirates again pushes back A350/787 decision

Tue Feb 14, 2017 7:18 pm

klm617 wrote:
I would assume knowing how this game is played they are waiting to see what president Trump does when dealing with the ME3 and the amount of access he gives them to US markets. Chose wisely Mr. Trump a Boeing order would help our economy greatly.


I mentioned this on another thread, but:

As far as the position of Trump on the ME3 is concerned, it's important to remember that he's friends with Akbar al-Baker. Qatar Airways also has a corporate campus in Trump Tower and pays the Trump organization for their office lease.
 
parapente
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Re: Emirates again pushes back A350/787 decision

Tue Feb 14, 2017 7:28 pm

The interesting thing (to me) is that the A333-9 will use a brand new engine that does have one obvious 'other' NEO home.That being the A380 NEO.No engine manufacturer is going to build a totally new engine for it (that much is obvious).So there could be some negotiating room here perhaps?
 
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Polot
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Re: Emirates again pushes back A350/787 decision

Tue Feb 14, 2017 7:37 pm

parapente wrote:
The interesting thing (to me) is that the A333-9 will use a brand new engine that does have one obvious 'other' NEO home.That being the A380 NEO.No engine manufacturer is going to build a totally new engine for it (that much is obvious).So there could be some negotiating room here perhaps?

The Trent 7000 (which is a derivative of the Trent 1000 TEN) doesn't have enough thrust, and it is questionable whether they alone would provide enough improvement over the A380's current engines (which, remember, are newer than those found on the A330ceo) to be worth the investment to get the thrust up at the proper levels and get it engineered/certified on the A380s.
 
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Re: Emirates again pushes back A350/787 decision

Tue Feb 14, 2017 7:47 pm

SonOfABeech wrote:
Parking space at DXB will be a big constraint until DWC is ready. Surely this affects the preference for bigger planes.

finally someone hits the nail on the head. EK's problem isn't capacity or gauge. It's somewhere to park the bloody things.

They are dithering a little over whether to push the proverbial button and sink the money into making a wholesale move to DWC, which won't be cheap. Nor will it be easy to accomplish. Only when they have room to breathe and expand will EK be able to start right-gauging and expanding the fleet with a new overall global vision.

QR made the move to Hamad and now are seeing the benefits of a larger, more modern airport. EY will benefit hugely from the new AUH. Time for Emirates and Dubai to link hands and jump together.
 
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Channex757
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Re: Emirates again pushes back A350/787 decision

Tue Feb 14, 2017 7:49 pm

parapente wrote:
The interesting thing (to me) is that the A333-9 will use a brand new engine that does have one obvious 'other' NEO home.That being the A380 NEO.No engine manufacturer is going to build a totally new engine for it (that much is obvious).So there could be some negotiating room here perhaps?

Rolls Royce have already stated many times that the Advance will be ready around the 2020 timeframe, and will do the job.
 
parapente
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Re: Emirates again pushes back A350/787 decision

Tue Feb 14, 2017 10:35 pm

The T 7000 does have enough thrust and they won't build the Advance for the 380 why would they?
 
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Rajahdhani
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Re: Emirates again pushes back A350/787 decision

Wed Feb 15, 2017 12:30 am

Channex757 wrote:
SonOfABeech wrote:
Parking space at DXB will be a big constraint until DWC is ready. Surely this affects the preference for bigger planes.

finally someone hits the nail on the head. EK's problem isn't capacity or gauge. It's somewhere to park the bloody things.


So, this should help.
http://gulfnews.com/business/aviation/flydubai-will-move-to-dwc-in-2017-dubai-airports-says-1.1826412
This summer, flydubai’s operations account of 19 per cent of all landings and take-offs at Dubai International, only second to Emirates who account for 40 per cent, according to Horton. “That is huge growth that is being unlocked,” he said, “flydubai’s slots … during peak periods … will be significantly beneficial to Emirates.”
Without directly commenting on the flydubai shift, Emirates told Gulf News in a statement it has “a bit of breathing room” following the opening of Concourse D at Dubai International earlier this year, allowing the airline to move into Concourse C.
By comparison, Dubai International can handle today up to 90 million passengers a year and will have an eventual capacity of 118 million by 2023.


So, it should help quite a bit. The issue of space, in insurmountable. A question, though - could the current conditions - essentially allow EK to remain at DXB? Based on past performance, and counting current conditions - and the 'liberated space' being offered by FlyDubai by the end of the year - I can see that it would decrease the pressure placed upon EK to move (and especially in the short-medium term where they will focus on costs). As the 'mid-2020s' date is offered - could we see that slip further down the road, and if so - how much longer? As is, the 'size' of the fleet is set to grow even more, and I can see simple space being too tight to operate as efficiently as they need to grow further. I guess the question is, with the additions and subtractions - I wonder what the new, realistic date (and perhaps what the key detractors to moving) might be.
 
AABB777
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Re: Emirates again pushes back A350/787 decision

Wed Feb 15, 2017 2:48 am

HMK31 wrote:
klm617 wrote:
I would assume knowing how this game is played they are waiting to see what president Trump does when dealing with the ME3 and the amount of access he gives them to US markets. Chose wisely Mr. Trump a Boeing order would help our economy greatly.


I mentioned this on another thread, but:

As far as the position of Trump on the ME3 is concerned, it's important to remember that he's friends with Akbar al-Baker. Qatar Airways also has a corporate campus in Trump Tower and pays the Trump organization for their office lease.


QR no longer has a commercial office in Trump Tower. They are now in the Empire State Building and have been for the past two years. They are also horribly managed in the US and have faced a lot of turnover over the past 12 months.
 
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Re: Emirates again pushes back A350/787 decision

Wed Feb 15, 2017 3:18 am

Channex757 wrote:
SonOfABeech wrote:
Parking space at DXB will be a big constraint until DWC is ready. Surely this affects the preference for bigger planes.

finally someone hits the nail on the head. EK's problem isn't capacity or gauge. It's somewhere to park the bloody things.

They are dithering a little over whether to push the proverbial button and sink the money into making a wholesale move to DWC, which won't be cheap. Nor will it be easy to accomplish. Only when they have room to breathe and expand will EK be able to start right-gauging and expanding the fleet with a new overall global vision.

QR made the move to Hamad and now are seeing the benefits of a larger, more modern airport. EY will benefit hugely from the new AUH. Time for Emirates and Dubai to link hands and jump together.


If they need spaces to park their excessive planes, they can always do so @ DWC.
 
parapente
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Re: Emirates again pushes back A350/787 decision

Wed Feb 15, 2017 10:21 am

Thanks for the link to the Flydubai move article.This move (to quote SJ)'changes everything' at least in the short medium term.Freeing up 19% of capacity is absolutely huge! It will certainly allow Emirates to expand,particularly as they are slowing down the rate of that expansion at the moment.
Whether it will be enough to last the 7/8 years before the big move to DWC who knows but it will certainly help a lot.

Regarding the purchase of 'smaller' aircraft.I do believe they will take the whole of their 778/9 order.They need them all if only for 773 replacements over time.And time is the point.They may well stretch the delivery time table out (as they are doing with the 388) to create 'room' for the introduction of a mid sized aircraft.
 
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Re: Emirates again pushes back A350/787 decision

Fri Feb 17, 2017 1:57 pm

Rajahdhani wrote:
Channex757 wrote:
So, it should help quite a bit. The issue of space, in insurmountable. A question, though - could the current conditions - essentially allow EK to remain at DXB? Based on past performance, and counting current conditions - and the 'liberated space' being offered by FlyDubai by the end of the year - I can see that it would decrease the pressure placed upon EK to move (and especially in the short-medium term where they will focus on costs). As the 'mid-2020s' date is offered - could we see that slip further down the road, and if so - how much longer? As is, the 'size' of the fleet is set to grow even more, and I can see simple space being too tight to operate as efficiently as they need to grow further. I guess the question is, with the additions and subtractions - I wonder what the new, realistic date (and perhaps what the key detractors to moving) might be.

While FlyDubai has about half the slots of EK, not all slots will be able to go to EK. There have been complaints that other airlines have not been able to get prime slots (during EK hub waves) to compete.

So there is some room for slip at DWC, but I expect it to keep moving forward. In particular if FlyDubai does well at DWC. That will add revenue to the system to fund expansion.

EK is looking at narrowbodies (separate thread for that). If they were to buy A321NEOs, there would be a tremendous number of new secondary cities served with profitable connections.

Personally, I think EY and EK should join at DWC... but that might need its own thread.

Lightsaber
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Rajahdhani
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Re: Emirates again pushes back A350/787 decision

Fri Feb 17, 2017 2:29 pm

lightsaber wrote:
While FlyDubai has about half the slots of EK, not all slots will be able to go to EK. There have been complaints that other airlines have not been able to get prime slots (during EK hub waves) to compete.


Great point. I was aware of some others complaining about competing. My thought was that local authorities would have easily offered DWC (albeit, with less connectivity) and be willing to transition these carriers. It would alleviate the slot issue, and the issue of competition - albeit temporarily. That said, you're right - space at DXB is the demand. So, if EK were to gain the FlyDubai slots (19% of activity at DXB IIRC), then they will still have to cede to other carriers. If, on a 1:1 basis of replacement (of a FlyDubai 737 to a proposed EK A321/737), and surrendering expected slots to some competitors - would it still be enough for EK?

lightsaber wrote:
So there is some room for slip at DWC, but I expect it to keep moving forward. In particular if FlyDubai does well at DWC. That will add revenue to the system to fund expansion.
EK is looking at narrowbodies (separate thread for that). If they were to buy A321NEOs, there would be a tremendous number of new secondary cities served with profitable connections.


How is FlyDubai doing financially? I mean, as fuel is low, and the move to DWC could affect their performance. My thought was that, if FlyDubai were not interested in expanding right away, they could lease some of those 737s (or, lease some of the 737 MAX's on order) to EK to suffice for now. I guess my overall question is - free from the constraints of DXB, would EK need the narrowbodies at DWC, when FlyDubai essentially would compete at the lower end? I'll try to get that question over to the other thread.

lightsaber wrote:
Personally, I think EY and EK should join at DWC... but that might need its own thread.



Yes, perhaps. The new airport facilities at AUH, though - are impressive. On the plus side, such a move would alleviate the EK narrow-body concern, as EY does that now, and has experience with it. That said, what a merger that would be...

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